Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chris Grayling must surely be a good bet to be next Cabinet mi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chris Grayling must surely be a good bet to be next Cabinet minister out
I’ve just got 9/1 on Betfair that Chris Grayling will be the next cabinet minister out. It is not just the latest ferry company without ships saga but a whole history of cock-ups that we’ve seen. How he escaped unscathed from the last summer’s new rail table calamity was amazing.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Amber Rudd could be a history maker, I'll never forget her resigning as Home Secretary after I tipped her at 33/1
Will any cabinet members resign to support Cooper-Boles II ?
Grayling won't.
I'm steering clear of this market at present.
See this thread
https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1095675735904264192
“The issue is whether Brussels is clear on the terms of extension,” he was overheard saying. “In the end they will probably just give us an extension.”
I suppose that means the "issue" is whether or not Brussels will insist on the deal being approved before an extension, which is more or less what Brussels has been saying in public. Apparently Oliver Robbins thinks they are bluffing and will eventually just grant an extension without any conditions.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1095677325314801664
Hurrah for that timetable change that Grayling oversaw.
Btw, I'm just picking up on this Robbins thing and I was immediately reminded of my early days in the City when I was advised to be careful what I said in the local pubs and restaurants in case it was overheard. I was a humble oik dealing in far less sensitive matters than Brexit. My conclusion is that Ollie is either exceptionally dumb or was doing it on purpose.
My second thought was that the My Deal or Delay line was no great issue. Many will have inferred as much anyway.
The Backstop/Bridge issue is more significant though. If true, it shows she's taking her own supporters for mugs. Not a good look.
But you are right that some Brexits would be less insane than others.
I think we should be told.
Not so sure. Grayling's taxi would probably fail to turn up and he'd end up hanging around indefinitely.
In that case she left to protect her predecessor as Home Secretary. Grayling is a valuable May loyalist in the Cabinet and I think he will only depart if doing so is necessary to protect the PM. While the failings at the Department of Transport continue not to implicate the PM then it seems to me that he can stay in post endlessly to soak up the criticism.
Brexit means that public attention will move on, whereas in normal political times the focus could remain on Grayling and eventually force the resignation.
It needs a minister who is angry enough to go in there and sort it out, and with the political backing to do so. And it'd help if Brexit wasn't subsuming everything ...
He was heard to mumble in his final Cabinet "I thought I could just, you know, borrow some. From that factory - near Chester?"
As with the other attacks, it was pretty silly to blame him. I mean it's not like he's wasted £10bn on an NHS database or £3bn on a Rural Payments Agency which drove farmers to suicide.
As a general rule, betting on a cabinet minister leaving because the opposition are criticising him or her is a mug's game.
God knows, I've got the ammunition....
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/13/the-surprising-truth-about-brexit-britain-were-a-country-full-of-moderates
It wouldn't be the first time those in the Westminster/media bubble misunderstood the mood of the country. But then it is rather contradicted by the polling that had people identifying quite strongly with being Remainers/Leavers.
😈
Despite frenetic efforts by ministers to ensure the continuity of international trade after the UK leaves the EU on 29 March, the international trade secretary, Liam Fox, has so far only managed to secure deals with seven of the 69 countries that the UK currently trades with under preferential EU free trade agreements, which will end after Brexit.
Had they been determined to let Seaborne carry on in the face of the obvious "no ships" issue, then that would have been a different, and resigning, matter.
Of course, I am a lawyer not a politician. It may be that, politically, Corbyn does have Grayling on the ropes over this, however harsh that may be.
The problem is some people who have read the WA see some serious flaws in it which will potentially affect this country's future economic relationship with a significant trading partner. Too many aspects seem to tie us in perpetuity to the EU and is that truly what Brexit means? The "backstop" which like the Irish Question in general is little understood has become a political thing but part of the recognition that for the first time in a very long time Britain and Ireland are going their separate ways economically as well as politically.
The only analogy I have is the drowning man who is thrown a lifebelt but sees it has a hand grenade tied to it with the pin out.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/13/michael-bloomberg-trump-2020-1167159
Corbynista car enthusiasts will no doubt have their eyes on the DVLA today as it holds one of its regular auctions of personalised numberplates – up for sale today is a collector’s item, the numberplate COR87N.
https://order-order.com/2019/02/13/corbyn-selling-cheap/
Credit where it is due
He's another example of May's uselessness - Example 194. Her utter inability to pick people of talent and competence. See, also, Johnson, Fox, Davis.
Johnson, Fox, Davis joins a list of virtually the whole shadow cabinet as useless
We all deserve so much better
I am sure that all those Leavers who think like that are also in favour of:-
1. Abolishing cooling off periods for important financial and other contracts.
2. Abolishing divorce.
3. Never getting back together with someone you parted from even if you both want to because, you know, you made that decision once and you can't revisit it.
4. Flying to a country which has been declared unsafe by the FO because you made the decision to go there, have bought the tickets and travel insurance is for cissies.
Maybe - if there were a 2nd referendum - Leave might win again. But the insistence that this cannot possibly be tested, no sirree, absolutely not, it is the start of totalitarianism, the death of democracy and all civilised life, etc etc does smack a teensy weensy bit of protesting a bit too much.
Is is possible that there might be just a smidgen of fear that the people might indeed have changed their mind and that the reality of the Leavers' grand offering might be found wanting?
A Transport for London investigation showed The Garden Bridge Trust spent £161,000 on a website and £417,000 on a gala event for the abandoned project.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-47228698
West Indies fast bowler Shannon Gabriel has been banned for the first four one-day internationals against England.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/cricket/47230497
Were they doing the drawings in gold leaf?
As for the rest.... expect incoming fire.
:-)
In fact, working out who was worth appointing and has tried to do their job halfway competently is probably easier and amounts to Gove.
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1095454588285652992
(Apparently the EU won't be reopening the Withdrawal Agreement but might do some last-minute keyhole surgery on it!)
There'd still be no bridge, but the taxpayer would be £3m better off and my own finances would be improved quite a bit too.
The payout will help refund donors including £3,200 to the winner of a Garden Bridge auction prize who did not receive their promised game of "table tennis with Boris Johnson"...
If those who think that Leave is the right thing to do now were confident of their position, they would not be so determined to shut down the argument. I think that many of them aren't as confident as they claim that voters would agree, having seen what it means in practice.
And I do accept - as I have said ad nauseam - that there are big problems with being seen to rerun votes to get to a predetermined answer. There are no good options. But a fresh vote may well be the least worst option given that MPs are refusing to behave like grown ups.
A WA pushed through in panic at the last minute will not stick. It will not allow us to move on to the next stage. It just means that all those arguments which have not been resolved now will simply continue. It will prolong the division and anger and feeling that the country has been bullied into being forced to make a division, that it has been denied a proper debate on this deal, that it has been denied alternatives, that it has been denied the opportunity to think again when this could have made a difference to the outcome. It will entrench bitterness.
Sure - many of the People's Vote crowd are people who have never accepted the original decision.
But that is not my position. I think that now that we know what the WA deal is, given the red lines which this government has adopted, and now that we know that we can revoke and remain on existing terms, we should be entitled to say whether we still want to go ahead or stay. This is not rerunning the same referendum as in 2016. It is asking people now to make a decision now on what they have learnt in the last two years and 7 months and what is on offer - in reality - now.
And I come to this view because Parliament has been largely sidelined in this process and is refusing to deal with this sensibly. I do not think a panicked decision will be a good or sensible decision or an enduring one. The least worst option is, having asked the people once, to ask them now and make sure that the two options on offer are ones that can, in reality be implemented.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/2020-democratic-primary-pronunciation-guide-kamala-harris.html
"Even if you can imagine quite a bit, Centives, the economics blog of students of Lehigh University, says it would cost “$852,000,000,000,000,000. Or roughly 13,000 times the world's GDP” to build the Death Star…and that’s just the cost of steel production."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolpinchefsky/2012/02/21/how-much-would-it-cost-to-build-the-death-star-from-star-wars/
Which is mildly amusing.
Which gives me an opportunity to boast yet again - https://imgur.com/17JW7xl
Although give our camelias a few more days, and I'll astonish you! There are thousands upon thousands of buds, just waiting to burst open.
Construction overseer, Darth Grayling......
We came to a democratic decision after a three week intensive campaign. We didn't vote on a whim after a salesman came to call. We have three week campaigns before we vote on a government too.
What has happened is that Parliament refused to accept the decision and did everything it could to prevaricate and insist it had to have the final decision. Their campaigning has carried on incessantly ever since.
I'd liken it to a government refusing to accept a GE result. You're were misled, the other side cheated, and you're too thick to make a decision. The Great and the Good are doing it for your own good. We won't implement your decision, we'll wait a couple of days and then insist you've probably changed your mind.
We can argue about whose analogy is most correct, but the precedent it sets is unarguable. The voters' decision is subject to Parliamentary oversight. If we don't like it, you'll have to vote again.
Whether we Remain, Leave or Bino is less relevant. The message it would send out is the problem.
Even if we voted Leave again, the damage is done.
Parliament has voted through every single Brexit measure presented to it apart from the WA, which is not required for us to leave.
If I were London Mayor for a day I would encourage the greening of front gardens and wasteland spaces, not just for beauty but to encourage beneficial insects and wildlife and to help clean the air. There is no space that wouldn't be improved by a plant or two.
Marvellous to see.