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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Strong showings by the LDs in the local by-elections declared
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Strong showings by the LDs in the local by-elections declared overnight
Bolton & Undercliffe (Bradford) result:
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Perhaps this is a moment to remember the late Mark Senior, who would surely have enjoyed this thread header.
Edit: Then again, this works!
Edit: Then again, this works!
Edit II: although it's a shag.
Conservative 28.6%
Liberal Democrat 27.7%
Labour 26.0%
Liberal Democrats to win in the second round?
Do they have a Mayoral candidate yet?
Edit: much appreciated.
Meanwhile Owen Smith is threatening to quit Labour. This is the double whammy that the inept Corbyn has achieved by finally coming off the fence:
1. Alienating his own party so he won't have the backing and
2. Hardening Tory Brexiteers who will never vote for a Corbyn customs union
As I said before, the numbers are on Theresa May's side if she can get it right.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-47157567
Edit: much appreciated.
Edit II: gah!
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1093619658253615105?s=21
Sadiq Khan would need to seriously annoy the left / liberal axis to be in danger, and he's shown no sign of that so far.
Of course in reality that won't happen - in large parts of London (particularly east and south east London) the Lib Dems barely exist as an electoral force. They can pour dozens of activists into one ward to get a good result in a low turnout February by election - but London wide outside their south west London postcode strongholds maybe not so likely.
In terms of that Lambeth by election it is worth noting that the by election arose because one of the 3 Labour councillors elected last May quit to take up a well paid public sector job. And now another one out of the 3 has just quit to take another well paid public sector job at City Hall - meaning they will have to turn out again in another by election in the same ward in a few weeks.
If I elected people for a four year term to serve my area and nine months in 2 of the 3 had quit I might be a bit annoyed and make a protest So while Brexit may be a factor - there may also be local factors here.
Assuming the hypothetical of a pre Brexit snap GE with the Cons running under TM on her deal against Labour offering to re-negotiate and put the resulting BINO deal to the public in a Referendum versus Remain -
How do you think you vote? Do you swallow JC as PM for the chance to storrrrrp Brexit?
https://twitter.com/_Mama__K_/status/1093646787590742017
The only ones in the offing, though, appear to be Peterborough and Newport West (where Flynn has said he wants to step down before next GE).
Neither look very promising.
Remember that the biggest election the Lib Dems or their predecessors have won in the whole of the last century was Devon County Council*. The Lib Dems have a strong presence in SW London but it'd be a massive ask to go from there to fighting the entire capital.
That said, if there is a split within Labour, and if the LDs and SDP2 fielded a joint candidate with a strong (presumably ex-Lab) candidate, then it's possible. There'd have to be a big falling out over Brexit, rather than Corbyn individually but that is possible.
I don't think (?) there's yet a market on the winning party as opposed to winning individual for the next London mayor (and if there was, we'd need to be very careful about the rules, as an LD-supported candidate who was not him- or herself a LD may not count), but it's definitely something to keep an eye on.
* I'm using as a definition here any of:
- An overall election, at any of national, devolved or local level;
- An individual constituency, at any level (i.e. individual under FPTP or AMS, or regional under List or AMS);
- The UK, for European elections.
And I'm someone who thought I lived in a safe seat till 2017 and now live in a marginal.
How about in Torbay, @MarqueeMark?
HayfieldSmithson.The Bradford ward used to be the safest LD ward in the District, where they polled 60%+, so while it's a good result, they were working off what ought to be a strong local base.
I don't know anything about the others but LDs do seem far keener to contest local by-elections in the depths of winter than other parties.
Hmm.
If you want to remain, then the best plan is the Quebec one. Muddle and obscurity.
The Quebec Independence referendum of 1995 was provoked by attempts by Mulroney to get Quebec to sign the Canadian constitution (1982).
After the referendum was narrowly lost, the Federalists simply didn’t make the matter an issue anymore. There is a helpful ambiguity about everything.
Quebec is de facto a part of Canada. But, it has not acknowledged or signed the Canadian constitution. The Canadian Supreme Court helpfully weighed in by saying Quebec did not have to.
Any attempt to “clarify” the position of Quebec would undoubtedly rekindle the PQ and the nationalists and there will be another independence referendum, and probably the break-up Canada.
Sometimes muddle is the best plan.
I can imagine if the Eu extended Article 50 by another 2 years, and then another 2 years, and so, it would work. The UK would be part of the Eu, and on the point of leaving, but never actually leaving. Just like Quebec and Canada.
I think this is interesting because if there were such an election Labour would have a big decision to make. A decision based on how they answer the following question -
If we swing for Referendum/Remain will the hit to our blue collar base be outweighed by a surge in our favour of centrist and even centre-right Remainers lending us their vote? Will the impact on seats be a net positive or negative?
Tough call, I think.
Corby found the sweet spot in which both Remainers & Leavers thought he was on their side.
http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/#all/wind
The short answer is that one must vote and hence it comes down to the party most likely to do least harm. There is no way on the planet that anyone sane could think that a Bernard Jenkin's-populated Conservative Party would not do immense damage to the UK.
However. On the other side is Jeremy Corbyn.
Hence for me, of the choices, available, the party which is not lead by Jeremy Corbyn will always be better than a party lead by Jeremy Corbyn.
So which way do you think Labour would face in a snap pre-Brexit GE?
Would they offer just the softer version of it or would they cross the rubicon and offer the Referendum?
Clearly BREXIT is popular in your neighbourhood
79% of people in Ireland say the the government should hold out for the backstop even if it leads to no deal.
What if it was JC vs May (or A N Other) saying No Deal?
No deal = no backstop.
BTW - i skip out for a few days and the forum looks .... errr... different
So, right, you would lend Lab your vote. That is 2 of the 6 who have answered to say that, the other 4 would not. 33%. Small sample, I need quite a few more data points before I can conclude and publish in one of the nationals, but very very interesting.
Congratulations BTW on living in a marginal. My seat (Hampstead & Kilburn) has gone the other way. It used to be an incredibly tight 3 way marginal (almost the only one in the country) but it is now rock solid safe for the Reds.
Although there are a fair few in Labour against it, if it is the manifesto I imagine most would just accept it rather than leave.
Maybe you'll have Chukka's new "centrist" party to vote for by then?
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/hungary-eyes-massive-new-fence-as-eu-turkey-refugee-deal-falters-1.2769343
https://twitter.com/ToniaAntoniazzi/status/1092565366025400322?s=19
https://euobserver.com/fortress-eu/118565
From the yougov polling on voting reasons after the last election if both Tories and Labour lose voters who prioritised Brexit as the reason for their vote Tories lose out more.
I am now in a safe Labour seat. NFW will I vote Labour while Corbyn is in charge. Nor will I vote Tory (and the local Tory candidate last time was a muppet anyway). The Lib Dems have good candidates here but are nowhere so voting for them is pointless - other than to keep their spirits up and as a reward for my really excellent local Lib Dem councillor.
So my vote at another GE is pretty pointless. I may as well stay in bed.
It is, in part, the reason why I would quite like another referendum on this Brexit-shmexit nonsense. At least my vote in that would count, a bit. And, yes, I am aware of the obvious ironies, before everyone jumps down my throat.
PS I assume Brexit wasn't sorted yesterday while I was busy having a birthday. My son put one candle on my cake, saying that it was probably best to forget about the decades. How very true.
In which case, what will we talk about.......?
But as we have seen with the way that JC treats the membership (shibboleth when it comes to leader, ignorable irritant when it comes to EURef2) it's a trait in JC that sets this apart from normal Lab vs Cons rivalry.