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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New GE2015 projection from Oxford political scientist, Step
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New GE2015 projection from Oxford political scientist, Stephen Fisher, suggests that Tories have 58 pc chance of a majority
I have enormous respect for political scientist, Oxford's @StephenDFisher
He was key member of team behind the GE2010 exit poll
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It's still the same old rubbish.
The Roderick, Lebo and Norpeth model has it as high as 99%.
It is an enduring truth in political forecasting that people underestimate the chance of a big shift from current polling. Those 95% intervals imply, for example, that there is 2.5% chance of the Tories getting less than 28% and a 2.5% chance of them getting over 52%. Seems reasonable.
Cmon lads its 3/1 taking Candy from babies stuff if that forecast is close
Me I will continue to hedge between Lab outright and nom
Mr. T, seen any cats?
This is an interesting prediction. How does Mr. Fisher's history of predictions play out?
Your link to Stephen's piece goes directly to your comment on it, rather than the top of the article.
Unless you meant to do that...
http://electionsetc.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/a-long-range-forecast-for-2015-british.html?showComment=1382714874717#c562023867383452052
"a tendency for parties to move back towards their long-run average level of support."
There is a long-term downward trend in support for the main two parties, but his methodology will act to predict its reversal, by construction.
I'd also be interested to know whether he took any account of the increase in accuracy of the opinion polls, which would presumably affect his results, if I'd understood his methodology.
If a new line, the following says it should be 14 days:
http://www.productsandservices.bt.com/products/landline/new-landline
One thing that annoys me is the length of time it can take to switch providers. I can understand the physical complexities of getting a new line installed (e.g. to a new property, or a second line), but when switching, with power in particular, two to three months is is patently ridiculous.
Lab woukd have to come back from 29% whilst incumbency.
I'll need the winnings if they do get into power.
If they lose, I'll still have a job.
Betting on a Labour win is called disaster planning. Its like taking insurance. You hope they don't have to pay out.
Didn`t Nate Silver predict Labour to end up with 212 at the last election?
Government and other services has grown less than the whole economy since 2010, though it has grown in real terms, which does put austerity in an interesting light.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWfY9GRe7SI
Pr(Lab majority) = 15%
Pr(Lab largest party) = 12%
Any 'model' that produces that result is a complete crock of shit.
"Farewell then Sunny Hundal. The libellous blogger and tweeter has announced that he is no longer going to keep up his self-published website ‘Liberal Conspiracy’. One reason – far beyond satire – is that he is going to go to the University of Kingston to lecture on journalism."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/10/is-sunny-hundal-the-best-person-to-lecture-on-journalism/
Hung Parliament only 28%, but Con largest party - Con majority = 31%.
They match the figures that Stephen Fisher gives on his blog post, though, so the error is obviously his rather than Mike's.
I have asked him for clarification.
Supportive MPs...it's easier to look at who has pledged his support
http://www.blunt4reigate2015.com/comments.php
Is she getting the service from BT, or is it through another provider (BT still have to do the physical work)?
However, in our last house move last year, ISTR that BT got the work done a week earlier than they said. So perhaps they give you a worst-case. Or perhaps not...
"I had a farm in Africa at the foot of the Ngong Hills. The Equator runs across these highlands, a hundred miles to the north, and the farm lay at an altitude of over six thousand feet. In the day-time you felt that you had got high up; near to the sun, but the early mornings and evenings were limpid and restful, and the nights were cold."
Move over Karen Blixen!
"AAAAAFRRRIIIIKAAAA
See de white triller writin fella he come in de whirlycopter."
There goes Friday nights on PB then
Ed Balls@edballsmp2h
Receiving my @TumbleBeesleeds Star Jump Award in Churwell - fun afternoon with local parents & under 5s pic.twitter.com/AsmDBhtZvY
The last two bars sum to 100%.
They are two discrete data series.
historical tendencies for the Conservatives to over perform and Labour to under perform their vote intention figures in the polls when it comes to election day
But pre-92 polls were horribly skewed by the "shy Tory" syndrome.
The one issue may be that the model is based on past performance when for the next election we have no comparable situation to work from. But maybe that does not matter.
Ok, it should be read as Con maj (57), Lab maj (15), Hung parliament (28)=100
Con largest 88 + Lab largest 12= 100
He generates his confidence intervals on the seats from the 95% confidence interval on the party shares, and *assumes* that this represents a normal distribution with a 95% confidence interval, but the statistics is a lot more complicated than this, and beyond my meagre abilities.
So in his model you will have situations where both the main parties have more than 326 seats, and this is why the probability for Labour majority is larger than Labour largest party. This is because the distribution of seats does not follow a normal distribution, or at least not one that is symmetric, and defined only by its 95% confidence interval.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/the-spectators-notes/9064601/the-spectators-notes-how-one-longed-as-a-child-to-be-abducted-by-the-gypsies/
"Farewell then Sunny Hundal. The libellous blogger and tweeter has announced that he is no longer going to keep up his self-published website ‘Liberal Conspiracy’. One reason – far beyond satire – is that he is going to go to the University of Kingston to lecture on journalism."
Nasty article. does everything he accuses Hundal of doing and what self respecting journalist sues a rival for libel?
Pardon?
Give me some understanding please.
Hundal admitted it & settled....or is it not libel when a left winger does it?
My personal favourite guesstimate is large scale reversion of "Tory" UKIP
to Con for fear of Red Ed wbile the Kippers keep the WWC ex Lab voters. I just cannot see northern and Midlands C2s rallying to metro Ed's banner
"Has Tim in any of his 12135 posts had anything even slightly positive to comment on anything Conservative"
Yep! He said IDS was a plank. Quite flattering really
“Mr Hundal was invited to retract. After a certain amount of evasion on his part he did so, thus ensuring that the case never reached court. Had it done so I would have won the case and it would have cost Mr Hundal a very large amount of money. As it was he agreed to pay my costs. The gorier details of this process are not something I will make public because they are deeply embarrassing for Mr Hundal.”
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/05/a-reply-to-certain-critics/
Still favouring NOM with Tories most seats here [at the prices].
There's that's us done again for the thread.
Con upper bound looks high too.
1. You said Grangemouth (which supplies 80% of Scotland) was in trouble because its prices were too high, didn't you? Don't try to change history just concede the point and move on.
2. Please don't misquote me. It's plain wrong.
Ends.
Most kippers are it's-all-gone-to-hell-in-a-handbasket Tories with an edge for those who want out of Europe. It is dinner party fun for them to support UKIP but, as GE2015 approaches, more and more will return to the fold. It's not even that Dave has given them a look-me-in-the-eye promise of a referendum. It is because they are conservatives for a reason. The clue is in the name.
UKIP come GE2015 = 3-5%. Perhaps that is generous.
Pre-92 (Shy Tory) polls produce unrealistic Tory uplifts compared to the actual result, so his model does too.
Iain Duncan Smith on John Major: ‘I’m forever in awe of an intellect that brought us cones hotline’
'Dept for Educ says "serious failings" in financial mangt at Kings Science Academy", Bradford free school which Gove once called "flagship"' crick
In 2010 like many others I doubted Rod's hung parliament predictions and have since then been on record as saying he was spot on and now consider him one of the most informed political contributors to this site.
I know a great deal can happen between now and May 2015 but there is a growing sense that George Osborne was correct and the 2 Eds as wrong as they and their former boss were 1997-2010.
The only thing is if we start seeing polls suggesting this outcome, our resident wine expert will reach 50,000 postings by May 2015. Deep joy!
And don't misquote me.
Thanks
National strike delayed apparently until after talks with govt.
DfE link:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/department-for-education-statement-on-kings-science-academy
http://www.ltmuseum.co.uk/whats-on/events/events-calendar#beeching
Probability of Lab largest party = 12%
The above surely HAS to be wrong!
Chance of largest party must be greater than chance of majority.
My guess at an answer to the question would be political interference. The Heart of Wales was kept open despite being a prime Beeching candidate. Coincidentally enough, it served six marginal constituencies ...
"Once the media start following the money Gove has a problem"
The schools prog from Yorkshire has been all over everywhere today. The lead characters now look like becoming stars. I'm going to try to get to watch it. Not a dry eye in the house apparently
I suspect that Ed Miliband's strategy of going big on squeezed living costs is going to crash and burn in the same way as Ed Balls 'too far too fast' and time for Plan B on austerity did as we get nearer the GE. As the economic recovery gathers momentum, Osborne can claim that this Government did provide stability as it has rebalanced the economy, thus providing more sustainable growth while reducing the deficit.
Its the economy stupid, and that alone blows any chance of Miliband and Balls being able to claim that they are a credible alternative when it comes to stewardship of the economy. David Cameron got it right when he called Ed Miliband a conman this week, the idea that this economic recovery is some how the 'wrong type of growth' when its providing increased employment and job security after the turmoil of the last five years really is one big con.
"Academies and free schools are subject to tougher financial accountability measures than maintained schools. Unlike maintained schools, academies must have their accounts externally audited."