Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-Election Review: October 24th 2013
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-Election Review: October 24th 2013
Loughborough, Hastings on Charnwood
Result: Labour 554 (61%), Conservative 127 (14%), UKIP 111 (12%), British Democrats 85 (9%), Liberal Democrats 26 (3%)
Labour HOLD
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
@MaxPB
...recovering that final 1.3% will see the unemployment figure fall below the BoE's 7% guidance which is going to mean interest rate rises at some point in 2014.
...
An astute post Max.
But I would disagree with your prediction that the BoE will raise interest rates in 2014 because unemployment has reached the 7% threshold.
Mark Carney addressed this point yesterday in Q&A from journalists and business leaders at an FT special conference. The 7% unemployment threshold is not a target nor is it an automatic trigger for interest rate increases.
Partly because the unemployment rate is easily understood and meaningful to the general public, the BoE MPC are using it as a composite indicator of a number of factors which signal the state of the economy.
The BoE believe that a 5% unemployment rate would indicate full recovery of the productive capacity of the economy lost since the 2007-9 recession. The 7% rate is seen as a milestone en route to full recovery.
However, the Bank is looking not just at the unemployment rate but also productivity. Both the 7% threshold and the 5% 'target' assume that the productivity gap (currently around 8% below 2007 levels) will recover in line with output.
If this happens then output will have to grow at a faster rate than employment. Sometime over the next two years the falls in unemployment will abate as productivity catches up. This is why getting to a 7% unemployment rate will take longer and be more difficult to achieve than simply adding the same amount of growth which delivered the previous 1% fall in the unemployment rate.
Carney made it clear yesterday that a fall in unemployment (even to the pre-announced 7% threshold) without a matching or greater increase in productivity would not be sufficient to justify increasing interest rates.
Expect to hear a lot more about the need to improve productivity over the next few months. Most economists believe it is the only sound means of paying for and achieving much demanded rises in living standards.
Kippers rotting, Labour not threatening, Lib Dems sticking like a stubborn stain.
"Roger, in the words of Mr Pork FPT - "Unite made a fool out themselves."
I think they did but that doesn't alter the fact that we have reached a pretty dismal point in our economic evolution when a single billionaire owner can make an 800 strong workforce humiliate themselves in order to keep their jobs
I know nothing about their work but logic dictates if the business has been failing it's hardly likely to have been caused by the decisions of the 800 cannon fodder.
That's all we needed.
Labour won't be upset that their best result of the night was in fertile marginal seat territory.
Have you shifted to the right in response to George's growth tsunami, tim?
"IDS hits back at Major: "I’m always happy to be in awe of someone whose own intellect delivered us the cones hotline" http://t.co/WHZNhld35E"
Quite a good line from an opponent. From someone on the same side with IDS's record it just shows a lack of class
"Grangemouth owners Ineos draft in Slaughter and May for Unite libel battle"
Ineos issued the claim after the union made allegations in a press release about an investigation into company employee Stephen Deans, who was also the chair of the Falkirk Constituency Labour Party (CLP).
http://www.thelawyer.com/news/practice-areas/litigation-news/grangemouth-owners-ineos-draft-in-slaughter-and-may-for-unite-libel-battle/3011546.article
Businesses lose money all the time, it is the actions of the CEO that either saves the company from going under, with the subsequent loss of jobs etc, or not.
Unite chose the wrong battle, on the wrong terrain and lost the war.
No one is blaming the workers – if that is what you mean by ‘cannon fodder’
It is number 52 on Labour's target list, and the 43rd Conservative seat. If Labour win Loughborough in 2015 then Ed Miliband will become PM.
And look what happened. If I discovered the same team were negotiating at my workplace - I'd be very alarmed.
Result of last election (2011): (emboldened denotes elected)
Conservative 1,000, 960
Labour 934, 801
Liberal Democrat 481, 396
Shepshed West on Charnwood
Result: Labour 683 (48%), Conservative 560 (39%), Liberal Democrat 178 (13%)
Labour GAIN from Conservative
Interesting that the entire increase in Labour's percentage vote share came from the Lib Dems.
Why don't we just wait until the police reveal the facts before reaching conclusions?
http://www.unitetheunion.org/news/no-parking-ticket-day-on-cards-for-ealing-motorists/
Interesting in the other ward that the Conservative vote share more than halved, as they lost votes to UKIP and "Brit Dems Stop Immigration Leave EU", who did not stand in the 2011 elections.
Those are precisely the two changes that Mike has identified from the opinion polling. Conservatives losing votes to UKIP and Labour picking up former Lib Dems.
I was crying with laughter all the way to work.