A majority of Britons oppose leaving the EU without a deal. A YouGov poll for The Times today shows that 51 per cent think a no-deal Brexit would be a bad outcome, 18 per cent think it would be a good outcome and 17 per cent call it an “acceptable compromise”.
The poll of 1,650 adults on Wednesday and Thursday found that Britons were most supportive of a delay to exit day if it were to allow time to negotiate an alternative Brexit deal
While 45 per cent endorsed delaying the exit date to allow the withdrawal agreement to be renegotiated, 39 per cent said they would support a delay to allow for more no-deal preparations to be made, and 37 per cent would support a delay to allow Mrs May’s deal to be approved by the Commons or allow for a second referendum.
17% are certifiable then. There are many ways to describe No Deal. "Acceptable Compromise " is not one of them. Prepare for a tsunami of " no one explained it properly to me" whinges in the first week of April should it come to pass.
You are not right in the tattie having nightmares like that. I will repeat Cooper is even crapper than May, she will never be a politician never mind PM.
600/1 though - come on! Value or what.
That's longer than Kanye for president.
I can run 10,000 futures and not get even a glimpse of that.
Best hope for Labour is one turns out to be a Kinnock like reformer.
I can see how Thornberry might. The others? Forget it. Three of them need reforming and one of them has no imagination.
The only one I would vote is Starmer, and Cooper who is not on the list. Pidcock and Burgon are thick as two short planks. Rayner sounds like she is thick two short planks, and Thornberry doesn’t have the common touch. She is more like a Tory if you know what I mean.
Starmer at lease sounds competent and is able to string words together.
Mr. Omnium, a few years ago now I was astounded Perez was circa 6 to finish top 6. He started 7th. Or so I thought. It transpired he had a grid penalty, which I discovered after backing him. He ended up finishing in the top 6 anyway, which was quite nice.
A bit of blind good fortune never hurts. And it's quite possible that whoever I intended to back at the time is now an even longer shot than Pennycook.
To answer the question, yes, brexit six nations. Intriguingly the brexit metaphor is ball is now in Irelands half and in their hands to return it, will the patriotic emotion, as plain to see in the Paddy power advert, and fact its spiking this weekend just because of a sporting clash, cause the Irish to not play defensive enough, get a bit rash and ill disciplined and hand the English a win?
I think the premise of the header is incorrect. Leaders change when either they are discredited or unpopular with the members, so the endorsement of the outgoing leader counts for little, and may even be a mark against.
Leaders change when members want change, and often radical change. That is how Jezza got elected, but the lesson is that after Jezza departs the party may well want a different direction. Electability for example.
The next labour leader is going to have to be a) absolutely 100% a woman and b) cynical enough to tack even further left than Jezza as the post-Brexit culture war will be at unprecedented levels of ferocity by then. That's why Thornberry is the deserved favourite.
Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again?
If Corbyn retires to the allotment at a time of his own choosing he will have a lot of say about his successor but not in defeat. It all depends on when and how.
But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
What she seriously lacked the last time she stood was a clear and compelling vision of what she believed and what she wanted for the country and the party. I don’t think she would make that mistake again. Vision was something Corbyn offered in spades. None of the centre right did so. They had become too technocratic under Blair/ Brown.
And that is why people like me voted for Jezza.
The Vision Thing.
I feel sad for you. Corbyn's vision is that we should be like Venezuela.
However the vision of the other three appeared to be to lose the next election on an ideas-less manifesto.
Well, you can't say Corbyn had no ideas. The fact they veered from the unrealistic to the surreal is a different problem.
He still however lost the election.
And he lost it to an ideas less manifesto and charisma free politician
Yvette Cooper has had a fairly good Brexit. She is much more high profile than almost any of the shadow cabinet. If Corbyn goes in defeat after an election is it not possible that the membership would go for competency and electability again? .
But Cooper is a Tory. Apparently. Just as the BBC edited PMQs on iPlayer to cut 15 seconds of Jeremy beating Theresa. Apparently.
Blair/ Brown.
And that is why people like me voted for Jezza.
The Vision Thing.
I feel sad for you. Corbyn's vision is that we should be like Venezuela.
However t=ared to be to lose the next election on an ideas-less manifesto.
Well, you can't say Corbyn had no ideas. The fact they veered from the unrealistic to the surreal is a different problem.
He still however lost the election.
And he lost it to an ideas less manifesto and charisma free politician
Not many on the left think the others would have produced a hung parliament and a winnable election map from the next (after 2015) election. As Stephen Bush put it (relistened to a podcast after the election the other day) 2017 GE result was along the lines of the best Labour could hope for after the 2015 election.
Yes but he has a you to vote for the other guy. We saw that in the very high support for two main parties. Things like Corbyn not being able to decide on a Brexit policy because as one Tory said he wants to appear Leave in North and Remain in South, and anti semitism issues, and deselection of moderates, will push that borrowed support away. If May is replaced by anyone vaguely competent then the Tories should avoid the problems of last time. I am hopeful for a new semi competent Libdem leader which could mean that a number of seats across the South could be gained.
I really don't buy the free hit argument. It was the opposite in my case. I had given up on Labour after the locals and was planning to vote Lib Dem. It was only after the campaign started to break through that I reconsidered. And only then that I read the Labour Manifesto. I liked what I read. So it was the prospect that Labour might win that motivated me to vote for them. And as soon as I considered it I scrutinised their policies more closely. I can't think of anything about me that means I behave differently to anyone else.
Not many on the left think the others would have produced a hung parliament and a winnable election map from the next (after 2015) election. As Stephen Bush put it (relistened to a podcast after the election the other day) 2017 GE result was along the lines of the best Labour could hope for after the 2015 election.
Yes but he has a you to vote for the other guy. We saw that in the very high support for two main parties. Things like Corbyn not being able to decide on a Brexit policy because as one Tory said he wants to appear Leave in North and Remain in South, and anti semitism issues, and deselection of moderates, will push that borrowed support away. If May is replaced by anyone vaguely competent then the Tories should avoid the problems of last time. I am hopeful for a new semi competent Libdem leader which could mean that a number of seats across the South could be gained.
I really don't buy the free hit argument. It was the opposite in my case. I had given up on Labour after the locals and was planning to vote Lib Dem. It was only after the campaign started to break through that I reconsidered. And only then that I read the Labour Manifesto. I liked what I read. So it was the prospect that Labour might win that motivated me to vote for them. And as soon as I considered it I scrutinised their policies more closely. I can't think of anything about me that means I behave differently to anyone else.
Everything I've seen and heard points in that direction TBH, there are always exceptions but from what I've seen your more the rule.
A majority of Britons oppose leaving the EU without a deal. A YouGov poll for The Times today shows that 51 per cent think a no-deal Brexit would be a bad outcome, 18 per cent think it would be a good outcome and 17 per cent call it an “acceptable compromise”.
The poll of 1,650 adults on Wednesday and Thursday found that Britons were most supportive of a delay to exit day if it were to allow time to negotiate an alternative Brexit deal.
While 45 per cent endorsed delaying the exit date to allow the withdrawal agreement to be renegotiated, 39 per cent said they would support a delay to allow for more no-deal preparations to be made, and 37 per cent would support a delay to allow Mrs May’s deal to be approved by the Commons or allow for a second referendum.
Are we supposed to see documents like the Yellowhammer one ?
You always will. There'll always be a Remainer out there who thinks it is their patriotic duty to tyr and scare the population round to their view..... A highly successful school of political thought, taught at the Cameron-Osborne College of Knowledge.....
To Cooper fans she’s a Goddess. An Amazon Queen. A Valkyrie who can rise above this mess. Not New Labour any more but soft left, can unite Labour and convince the Nation she is PM material.
To doubters, she just comes across as a wet lettuce. Nothing there whatsoever. Her excited fans just squirting relish all over it.
Well I'm not a fan - especially after that quisling amendment nonsense - but Coop as next PM is the best value 600/1 bet that I have ever had.
Especially if it wins. Can you imagine how that will feel. I'll be on cloud nine. It will be 2024 and I will the ONLY person in the shop cashing in that ticket. OMG the looks I'll get.
A majority of Britons oppose leaving the EU without a deal. A YouGov poll for The Times today shows that 51 per cent think a no-deal Brexit would be a bad outcome, 18 per cent think it would be a good outcome and 17 per cent call it an “acceptable compromise”.
The poll of 1,650 adults on Wednesday and Thursday found that Britons were most supportive of a delay to exit day if it were to allow time to negotiate an alternative Brexit deal.
While 45 per cent endorsed delaying the exit date to allow the withdrawal agreement to be renegotiated, 39 per cent said they would support a delay to allow for more no-deal preparations to be made, and 37 per cent would support a delay to allow Mrs May’s deal to be approved by the Commons or allow for a second referendum.
Firstly, there is a problem with such multiple choice questions, because you don’t know how smaller blocks of answers would go when forced between other two questions, so it allows people to add such and such together to claim the real picture is so and so. In fact such pollings as you kindly flagged here tell us nothing at all.
Secondly, its all done and dusted anyway so why the continued chatter and angst about no deal brexit? Mays deal with fudged backstop is happening though with not enough time to hit end of March without a little delay. Graham Brady actually been talking a lot of sense all through this, if anyone’s listening.
What ensured Mays deal was Corbyn. Labour front bench laissez-faire approach to addressing the questions and decisions of Brexit this winter is beginning to pay a price on the Labour Party now. Corbyns ailing popularity is related to his brexit fence sitting. Equal parts to the equation: fence sitting splintering PLP from his whip (this is on course to end ugly). And was he ever really as popular in the country as the last GE numbers seemed to make him, remainers lending their vote over Brexit for their last hopes, never really on board. The idea he was ever that popular was just a mirage.
Mind you the money bribes to Labour waverers by PM is political genius. The MP goes back to their leave voting constituents saying, you badly want and badly need investment into your community, but I turned it down. Splinters off enough ice from a block for a victory drink, I think.
Has anyone talked about the BBC 2 “inside Europe” documentary? I was a reluctant leaver. I declared on here my most likely decision to vote leave on how I felt the EU had humiliated Cameron when he asked for some shift on free movement as a revised deal. Having watched the documentary. I think I might have been wrong on my assessment that he asked for little and got even less.
Listening to Farage denounce what had been a series of tough compromises in a negotiation, I felt embarrassed...
Also brought up the major diplomatic failure it was for Cameron to leave the EPP. Something that Tim repeatedly banged on about. It left him isolated and outside of the loop and discussions resulting in the earlier humiliation of blocking a treaty change and then the EU just creating a new treaty outside of the Eu for the eurozone.
To Cooper fans she’s a Goddess. An Amazon Queen. A Valkyrie who can rise above this mess. Not New Labour any more but soft left, can unite Labour and convince the Nation she is PM material.
To doubters, she just comes across as a wet lettuce. Nothing there whatsoever. Her excited fans just squirting relish all over it.
Well I'm not a fan - especially after that quisling amendment nonsense - but Coop as next PM is the best value 600/1 bet that I have ever had.
Especially if it wins. Can you imagine how that will feel. I'll be on cloud nine. It will be 2024 and I will the ONLY person in the shop cashing in that ticket. OMG the looks I'll get.
You are going to mug them. Sting them. You are already spending it mentally and bragging to the world.
A majority of Britons oppose leaving the EU without a deal. A YouGov poll for The Times today shows that 51 per cent think a no-deal Brexit would be a bad outcome, 18 per cent think it would be a good outcome and 17 per cent call it an “acceptable compromise”.
The poll of 1,650 adults on Wednesday and Thursday found that Britons were most supportive of a delay to exit day if it were to allow time to negotiate an alternative Brexit deal
While 45 per cent endorsed delaying the exit date to allow the withdrawal agreement to be renegotiated, 39 per cent said they would support a delay to allow for more no-deal preparations to be made, and 37 per cent would support a delay to allow Mrs May’s deal to be approved by the Commons or allow for a second referendum.
17% are certifiable then. There are many ways to describe No Deal. "Acceptable Compromise " is not one of them. Prepare for a tsunami of " no one explained it properly to me" whinges in the first week of April should it come to pass.
I wouldn't use the words acceptable compromise but while it's not my preferred option it is acceptable over a bad deal. No deal is better than a bad deal though I'd prefer a good deal. The word compromise is the issue there rather than the word acceptable and I'm assuming that's the pollsters fault.
Much of Corbyn’s vote is personal, not ideological. I would not assume he’d be replaced by another member of the far left. However, I am genuinely surprised David did not mention Laura Pidcock. It is very clear to me she will be the Corbynista candidate (and there will be only one) when Jeremy does eventually step down. She was the only MP apart from him to feature on Labour’s last PPB and she is put up for media appearances by the leadership on an increasingly frequent basis. She is also not a London MP. She ticks all the boxes.
Much of Corbyn’s vote is personal, not ideological. I would not assume he’d be replaced by another member of the far left. However, I am genuinely surprised David did not mention Laura Pidcock. It is very clear to me she will be the Corbynista candidate (and there will be only one) when Jeremy does eventually step down. She was the only MP apart from him to feature on Labour’s last PPB and she is put up for media appearances by the leadership on an increasingly frequent basis. She is also not a London MP. She ticks all the boxes.
Much of Corbyn’s vote is personal, not ideological. I would not assume he’d be replaced by another member of the far left. However, I am genuinely surprised David did not mention Laura Pidcock. It is very clear to me she will be the Corbynista candidate (and there will be only one) when Jeremy does eventually step down. She was the only MP apart from him to feature on Labour’s last PPB and she is put up for media appearances by the leadership on an increasingly frequent basis. She is also not a London MP. She ticks all the boxes.
Laura Pidcock. Clearly the person to follow Corbyn:
"She completed an MSc in Disaster Management and Sustainable Development at Northumbria University in 2012."
But most disturbing is the disappearance of the concept of facts. If I go on television to debate with a Brexit politician such as Jacob Rees-Mogg or Michael Howard on the Irish border, I can explain a fact I have come to know over a long period of time; he can respond with a barefaced lie about the answer being technology. The journalist, in the interest of balance, can treat the two as if they are of equal weight. Boris Johnson can use the lie that 80 million Turks are about to enter the EU and later deny he ever said anything about Turkey. What are the public supposed to do when faced with such relativism? Nothing is true and everything is possible, as they say in Russia.
Much of Corbyn’s vote is personal, not ideological. I would not assume he’d be replaced by another member of the far left. However, I am genuinely surprised David did not mention Laura Pidcock. It is very clear to me she will be the Corbynista candidate (and there will be only one) when Jeremy does eventually step down. She was the only MP apart from him to feature on Labour’s last PPB and she is put up for media appearances by the leadership on an increasingly frequent basis. She is also not a London MP. She ticks all the boxes.
She is from the right union.
A union of very lefty activist parents. Before she'd had her tenth birthdy she was accompanying them on anti-Thatcher rallies.
Much of Corbyn’s vote is personal, not ideological. I would not assume he’d be replaced by another member of the far left. However, I am genuinely surprised David did not mention Laura Pidcock. It is very clear to me she will be the Corbynista candidate (and there will be only one) when Jeremy does eventually step down. She was the only MP apart from him to feature on Labour’s last PPB and she is put up for media appearances by the leadership on an increasingly frequent basis. She is also not a London MP. She ticks all the boxes.
And yet Rebecca Long-Bailey is John McD's protégé and one he speaks highly of.
Has anyone talked about the BBC 2 “inside Europe” documentary? I was a reluctant leaver. I declared on here my most likely decision to vote leave on how I felt the EU had humiliated Cameron when he asked for some shift on free movement as a revised deal. Having watched the documentary. I think I might have been wrong on my assessment that he asked for little and got even less.
Listening to Farage denounce what had been a series of tough compromises in a negotiation, I felt embarrassed...
Also brought up the major diplomatic failure it was for Cameron to leave the EPP. Something that Tim repeatedly banged on about. It left him isolated and outside of the loop and discussions resulting in the earlier humiliation of blocking a treaty change and then the EU just creating a new treaty outside of the Eu for the eurozone.
It's not just us. The ECR is increasingly popular with European right wingers, who see little in common with the EPP.
I think the premise of the header is incorrect. Leaders change when either they are discredited or unpopular with the members, so the endorsement of the outgoing leader counts for little, and may even be a mark against.
Leaders change when members want change, and often radical change. That is how Jezza got elected, but the lesson is that after Jezza departs the party may well want a different direction. Electability for example.
The next labour leader is going to have to be a) absolutely 100% a woman and b) cynical enough to tack even further left than Jezza as the post-Brexit culture war will be at unprecedented levels of ferocity by then. That's why Thornberry is the deserved favourite.
I don't think culture war is nessecarily a right/left conflict, the major divide over Brexit is both poles against the centre for example. Certainly the next Labour leader will be seen as a threat to socially conservative English nationalists in the shires, but that will be on social policy. Economic policy need not be extreme, indeed the hipster vote can be quite economically rightwing, as often centred around small businesses and freelancing. Econonomics and social aspects of politics are increasingly divergent.
I think the premise of the header is incorrect. Leaders change when either they are discredited or unpopular with the members, so the endorsement of the outgoing leader counts for little, and may even be a mark against.
Leaders change when members want change, and often radical change. That is how Jezza got elected, but the lesson is that after Jezza departs the party may well want a different direction. Electability for example.
The next labour leader is going to have to be a) absolutely 100% a woman and b) cynical enough to tack even further left than Jezza as the post-Brexit culture war will be at unprecedented levels of ferocity by then. That's why Thornberry is the deserved favourite.
I don't think culture war is nessecarily a right/left conflict, the major divide over Brexit is both poles against the centre for example. Certainly the next Labour leader will be seen as a threat to socially conservative English nationalists in the shires, but that will be on social policy. Economic policy need not be extreme, indeed the hipster vote can be quite economically rightwing, as often centred around small businesses and freelancing. Econonomics and social aspects of politics are increasingly divergent.
If we finally leave, then I expect a serious rejoin campaign to start within months.
This could cause a faultline down the centre of Labour which will have a massive impact on next leader contest.
Much of Corbyn’s vote is personal, not ideological. I would not assume he’d be replaced by another member of the far left. However, I am genuinely surprised David did not mention Laura Pidcock. It is very clear to me she will be the Corbynista candidate (and there will be only one) when Jeremy does eventually step down. She was the only MP apart from him to feature on Labour’s last PPB and she is put up for media appearances by the leadership on an increasingly frequent basis. She is also not a London MP. She ticks all the boxes.
Imo, it is and it isn’t. Jezza through his long held anti-establishment stance has lucked his way into being the candidate that people appear to pin their own hopes and beliefs onto (regardless of what he has actually said) eg the polling that showed equal number of supporters thought he was pro and anti brexit, students thinking he was going to cancel all student loans, etc.
Has anyone talked about the BBC 2 “inside Europe” documentary? I was a reluctant leaver. I declared on here my most likely decision to vote leave on how I felt the EU had humiliated Cameron when he asked for some shift on free movement as a revised deal. Having watched the documentary. I think I might have been wrong on my assessment that he asked for little and got even less.
Listening to Farage denounce what had been a series of tough compromises in a negotiation, I felt embarrassed...
Also brought up the major diplomatic failure it was for Cameron to leave the EPP. Something that Tim repeatedly banged on about. It left him isolated and outside of the loop and discussions resulting in the earlier humiliation of blocking a treaty change and then the EU just creating a new treaty outside of the Eu for the eurozone.
I really enjoyed it. Excellent programme. One of the biggest takeaways for me was the reminder of just how dominant the immigration issue was in everyone's thinking, Remain side and Leave. Much talk these days of May being unreasonable with her 'red lines' but as regards that one - ending FOM hence UK out of the SM - she had little choice.
A majority of Britons oppose leaving the EU without a deal. A YouGov poll for The Times today shows that 51 per cent think a no-deal Brexit would be a bad outcome, 18 per cent think it would be a good outcome and 17 per cent call it an “acceptable compromise”.
The poll of 1,650 adults on Wednesday and Thursday found that Britons were most supportive of a delay to exit day if it were to allow time to negotiate an alternative Brexit deal
While 45 per cent endorsed delaying the exit date to allow the withdrawal agreement to be renegotiated, 39 per cent said they would support a delay to allow for more no-deal preparations to be made, and 37 per cent would support a delay to allow Mrs May’s deal to be approved by the Commons or allow for a second referendum.
17% are certifiable then. There are many ways to describe No Deal. "Acceptable Compromise " is not one of them. Prepare for a tsunami of " no one explained it properly to me" whinges in the first week of April should it come to pass.
I wouldn't use the words acceptable compromise but while it's not my preferred option it is acceptable over a bad deal. No deal is better than a bad deal though I'd prefer a good deal. The word compromise is the issue there rather than the word acceptable and I'm assuming that's the pollsters fault.
Indeed. It ŵas the word compromise I had a problem with. No Deal is not acceptable to me, but it clearly is to others. However, compromise is an agreement to settle somewhere between 2 points. Since there is no position more Leavey than No Deal, it can't be one. Nor could Revoke for that matter. Who the heck came up with this question?
I think the premise of the header is incorrect. Leaders change when either they are discredited or unpopular with the members, so the endorsement of the outgoing leader counts for little, and may even be a mark against.
Leaders change when members want change, and often radical change. That is how Jezza got elected, but the lesson is that after Jezza departs the party may well want a different direction. Electability for example.
The next labour leader is going to have to be a) absolutely 100% a woman and b) cynical enough to tack even further left than Jezza as the post-Brexit culture war will be at unprecedented levels of ferocity by then. That's why Thornberry is the deserved favourite.
I don't think culture war is nessecarily a right/left conflict, the major divide over Brexit is both poles against the centre for example. Certainly the next Labour leader will be seen as a threat to socially conservative English nationalists in the shires, but that will be on social policy. Economic policy need not be extreme, indeed the hipster vote can be quite economically rightwing, as often centred around small businesses and freelancing. Econonomics and social aspects of politics are increasingly divergent.
TBH I wouldn't expect much movement to the right economically, it isn't where the membership is, in terms of the open closed type debate I expect open to win out in Labour quite easily but most likely economically left open is what the membership will want.
A majority of Britons oppose leaving the EU without a deal. A YouGov poll for The Times today shows that 51 per cent think a no-deal Brexit would be a bad outcome, 18 per cent think it would be a good outcome and 17 per cent call it an “acceptable compromise”.
The poll of 1,650 adults on Wednesday and Thursday found that Britons were most supportive of a delay to exit day if it were to allow time to negotiate an alternative Brexit deal
While 45 per cent endorsed delaying the exit date to allow the withdrawal agreement to be renegotiated, 39 per cent said they would support a delay to allow for more no-deal preparations to be made, and 37 per cent would support a delay to allow Mrs May’s deal to be approved by the Commons or allow for a second referendum.
17% are certifiable then. There are many ways to describe No Deal. "Acceptable Compromise " is not one of them. Prepare for a tsunami of " no one explained it properly to me" whinges in the first week of April should it come to pass.
I wouldn't use the words acceptable compromise but while it's not my preferred option it is acceptable over a bad deal. No deal is better than a bad deal though I'd prefer a good deal. The word compromise is the issue there rather than the word acceptable and I'm assuming that's the pollsters fault.
Indeed. It ŵas the word compromise I had a problem with. No Deal is not acceptable to me, but it clearly is to others. However, compromise is an agreement to settle somewhere between 2 points. Since there is no position more Leavey than No Deal, it can't be one. Nor could Revoke for that matter. Who the heck came up with this question?
I imagine someone who either consciously or subconsciously was backing May's deal over other options. Or was testing May's deal (see if it is a compromise) then repeated the same question for the other choices. It's not the respondents fault though if the answer is badly phrased.
I think the premise of the header is incorrect. Leaders change when either they are discredited or unpopular with the members, so the endorsement of the outgoing leader counts for little, and may even be a mark against.
Leaders change when members want change, and often radical change. That is how Jezza got elected, but the lesson is that after Jezza departs the party may well want a different direction. Electability for example.
The next labour leader is going to have to be a) absolutely 100% a woman and b) cynical enough to tack even further left than Jezza as the post-Brexit culture war will be at unprecedented levels of ferocity by then. That's why Thornberry is the deserved favourite.
I don't think culture war is nessecarily a right/left conflict, the major divide over Brexit is both poles against the centre for example. Certainly the next Labour leader will be seen as a threat to socially conservative English nationalists in the shires, but that will be on social policy. Economic policy need not be extreme, indeed the hipster vote can be quite economically rightwing, as often centred around small businesses and freelancing. Econonomics and social aspects of politics are increasingly divergent.
If we finally leave, then I expect a serious rejoin campaign to start within months.
This could cause a faultline down the centre of Labour which will have a massive impact on next leader contest.
Do you envisage that being an ideologically led campaign, or a more pragmatic - look how badly it's going - one?
I'm sure if Brexit goes badly (beyond initial troubles) that you're right in that such a movement will emerge. If it's ideological (i.e. if Brexit isn't a big disaster) then I can't see that at first it'll be too problematic for either main party. I can see (say) Soubry campaigning from day one, but not too many on her side initially.
It may be that the LDs have more initial trouble, although longer term they could be a big beneficiary.
A majority of Britons oppose leaving the EU without a deal. A YouGov poll for The Times today shows that 51 per cent think a no-deal Brexit would be a bad outcome, 18 per cent think it would be a good outcome and 17 per cent call it an “acceptable compromise”.
The poll of 1,650 adults on Wednesday and Thursday found that Britons were most supportive of a delay to exit day if it were to allow time to negotiate an alternative Brexit deal
While 45 per cent endorsed delaying the exit date to allow the withdrawal agreement to be renegotiated, 39 per cent said they would support a delay to allow for more no-deal preparations to be made, and 37 per cent would support a delay to allow Mrs May’s deal to be approved by the Commons or allow for a second referendum.
17% are certifiable then. There are many ways to describe No Deal. "Acceptable Compromise " is not one of them. Prepare for a tsunami of " no one explained it properly to me" whinges in the first week of April should it come to pass.
I wouldn't use the words acceptable compromise but while it's not my preferred option it is acceptable over a bad deal. No deal is better than a bad deal though I'd prefer a good deal. The word compromise is the issue there rather than the word acceptable and I'm assuming that's the pollsters fault.
Indeed. It ŵas the word compromise I had a problem with. No Deal is not acceptable to me, but it clearly is to others. However, compromise is an agreement to settle somewhere between 2 points. Since there is no position more Leavey than No Deal, it can't be one. Nor could Revoke for that matter. Who the heck came up with this question?
It's the compromise between soft brexit and invading Ireland.
You are not right in the tattie having nightmares like that. I will repeat Cooper is even crapper than May, she will never be a politician never mind PM.
600/1 though - come on! Value or what.
That's longer than Kanye for president.
I can run 10,000 futures and not get even a glimpse of that.
Very good reason why it is 600-1 though. Better buying a bar of chocolate at least you will get some enjoyment.
Off topic: So British Airways will become non-British after Brexit. Well done leavers - a real result. Take back control!
Aren't they already non-British. BA is owned by IAG, which is technically Anglo-Spanish, but has been headquartered in Spain since they became part of that group.
I think the premise of the header is incorrect. Leaders change when either they are discredited or unpopular with the members, so the endorsement of the outgoing leader counts for little, and may even be a mark against.
Leaders change when members want change, and often radical change. That is how Jezza got elected, but the lesson is that after Jezza departs the party may well want a different direction. Electability for example.
The next labour leader is going to have to be a) absolutely 100% a woman and b) cynical enough to tack even further left than Jezza as the post-Brexit culture war will be at unprecedented levels of ferocity by then. That's why Thornberry is the deserved favourite.
I don't think culture war is nessecarily a right/left conflict, the major divide over Brexit is both poles against the centre for example. Certainly the next Labour leader will be seen as a threat to socially conservative English nationalists in the shires, but that will be on social policy. Economic policy need not be extreme, indeed the hipster vote can be quite economically rightwing, as often centred around small businesses and freelancing. Econonomics and social aspects of politics are increasingly divergent.
If we finally leave, then I expect a serious rejoin campaign to start within months.
This could cause a faultline down the centre of Labour which will have a massive impact on next leader contest.
Do you envisage that being an ideologically led campaign, or a more pragmatic - look how badly it's going - one?
I'm sure if Brexit goes badly (beyond initial troubles) that you're right in that such a movement will emerge. If it's ideological (i.e. if Brexit isn't a big disaster) then I can't see that at first it'll be too problematic for either main party. I can see (say) Soubry campaigning from day one, but not too many on her side initially.
It may be that the LDs have more initial trouble, although longer term they could be a big beneficiary.
Likely that LDs would stick with being strongly pro EU and it would be picked up by bigger parties, say Labour, if it proved to be successful and started bringing them in votes. Unless Brexit is a huge and sustained disaster I can't see a big party campaigning to go straight back in if we come out.
I wonder what proportion of their income is from the UK?
Have they never heard of Ratner?
I don't think that they're saying their product is shit. In fact they're marketing model of publicity seeking wind ups seems remarkably successful.
'I'll take Paddy's mediocre odds cos I want to stick one to them & take money off them' seems not a bad strategy.
Ratner took the piss out of the people who were his consumers. Paddy Power risks the same with its UK punters, for a cheap political gag.
But as you allude, they seem to be of the school of "all publicity is good publicity." I wonder if Gerald Ratner is still happy to be an alumni of that school?
Has anyone talked about the BBC 2 “inside Europe” documentary? I was a reluctant leaver. I declared on here my most likely decision to vote leave on how I felt the EU had humiliated Cameron when he asked for some shift on free movement as a revised deal. Having watched the documentary. I think I might have been wrong on my assessment that he asked for little and got even less.
Listening to Farage denounce what had been a series of tough compromises in a negotiation, I felt embarrassed...
Also brought up the major diplomatic failure it was for Cameron to leave the EPP. Something that Tim repeatedly banged on about. It left him isolated and outside of the loop and discussions resulting in the earlier humiliation of blocking a treaty change and then the EU just creating a new treaty outside of the Eu for the eurozone.
I really enjoyed it. Excellent programme. One of the biggest takeaways for me was the reminder of just how dominant the immigration issue was in everyone's thinking, Remain side and Leave. Much talk these days of May being unreasonable with her 'red lines' but as regards that one - ending FOM hence UK out of the SM - she had little choice.
But that's the one issue where politicians in general have been most at fault.
They should have been truthful about the British economy's need for migrant workers. And as May pretty much sat on the fence during the referendum campaign, she's actually more to blame than many of them.
Off topic: So British Airways will become non-British after Brexit. Well done leavers - a real result. Take back control!
Aren't they already non-British. BA is owned by IAG, which is technically Anglo-Spanish, but has been headquartered in Spain since they became part of that group.
Don't try and use facts to knock them off their anti-Brexit stride!
Not many on the left think the others would have produced a hung parliament and a winnable election map from the next (after 2015) election. As Stephen Bush put it (relistened to a podcast after the election the other day) 2017 GE result was along the lines of the best Labour could hope for after the 2015 election.
Yes but he has a you to vote for the other guy. We saw that in the very high support for two main parties. Things like Corbyn not being able to decide on a Brexit policy because as one Tory said he wants to appear Leave in North and Remain in South, and anti semitism issues, and deselection of moderates, will push that borrowed support away. If May is replaced by anyone vaguely competent then the Tories should avoid the problems of last time. I am hopeful for a new semi competent Libdem leader which could mean that a number of seats across the South could be gained.
I really don't buy the free hit argument. It was the opposite in my case. I had given up on Labour after the locals and was planning to vote Lib Dem. It was only after the campaign started to break through that I reconsidered. And only then that I read the Labour Manifesto. I liked what I read. So it was the prospect that Labour might win that motivated me to vote for them. And as soon as I considered it I scrutinised their policies more closely. I can't think of anything about me that means I behave differently to anyone else.
Everything I've seen and heard points in that direction TBH, there are always exceptions but from what I've seen your more the rule.
Well you can bet accordingly, but Mays Charisma, her super majority to push through Brexit (and license for Tories to govern for 5 years), the Tory manifesto farce, the Labour manifesto non scrutiny, anti semitism, Corbyn riding two horses on Brexit, and Corbyn consistently poorer leadership ratings against May, all point in my direction. I have seen some very enthusiastic Corbyn supporters in central Bristol where I cover for work. There are banners Etc almost all the time. Just not in the areas that win elections.
Has anyone talked about the BBC 2 “inside Europe” documentary? I was a reluctant leaver. I declared on here my most likely decision to vote leave on how I felt the EU had humiliated Cameron when he asked for some shift on free movement as a revised deal. Having watched the documentary. I think I might have been wrong on my assessment that he asked for little and got even less.
Listening to Farage denounce what had been a series of tough compromises in a negotiation, I felt embarrassed...
Also brought up the major diplomatic failure it was for Cameron to leave the EPP. Something that Tim repeatedly banged on about. It left him isolated and outside of the loop and discussions resulting in the earlier humiliation of blocking a treaty change and then the EU just creating a new treaty outside of the Eu for the eurozone.
I really enjoyed it. Excellent programme. One of the biggest takeaways for me was the reminder of just how dominant the immigration issue was in everyone's thinking, Remain side and Leave. Much talk these days of May being unreasonable with her 'red lines' but as regards that one - ending FOM hence UK out of the SM - she had little choice.
But that's the one issue where politicians in general have been most at fault.
They should have been truthful about the British economy's need for migrant workers. And as May pretty much sat on the fence during the referendum campaign, she's actually more to blame than many of them.
Just because something is good for the economy doesn’t mean it has democratic support. People vote how they want and Government has to adapt not the other way around. If Corbyn gets in with his fantasy economics then I won’t be happy but I will respect his righ5 to govern
The next labour leader is going to have to be a) absolutely 100% a woman and b) cynical enough to tack even further left than Jezza as the post-Brexit culture war will be at unprecedented levels of ferocity by then. That's why Thornberry is the deserved favourite.
I don't think culture war is nessecarily a right/left conflict, the major divide over Brexit is both poles against the centre for example. Certainly the next Labour leader will be seen as a threat to socially conservative English nationalists in the shires, but that will be on social policy. Economic policy need not be extreme, indeed the hipster vote can be quite economically rightwing, as often centred around small businesses and freelancing. Econonomics and social aspects of politics are increasingly divergent.
If we finally leave, then I expect a serious rejoin campaign to start within months.
This could cause a faultline down the centre of Labour which will have a massive impact on next leader contest.
Do you envisage that being an ideologically led campaign, or a more pragmatic - look how badly it's going - one?
I'm sure if Brexit goes badly (beyond initial troubles) that you're right in that such a movement will emerge. If it's ideological (i.e. if Brexit isn't a big disaster) then I can't see that at first it'll be too problematic for either main party. I can see (say) Soubry campaigning from day one, but not too many on her side initially.
It may be that the LDs have more initial trouble, although longer term they could be a big beneficiary.
Likely that LDs would stick with being strongly pro EU and it would be picked up by bigger parties, say Labour, if it proved to be successful and started bringing them in votes. Unless Brexit is a huge and sustained disaster I can't see a big party campaigning to go straight back in if we come out.
Yep. Can't see any party taking a 'straight back in' line, and even less a 'Rejoin referendum' line (which to my mind would be certifiable). I imagine the LDs will find some links they want to restore immediately, and some that they are minded to restore, with a general theme of 'back in' if Brexit proves a disaster.
I suspect it'll be quite a dynamic period and ministers will really need to earn their keep in adapting to the new circumstances.
Much of Corbyn’s vote is personal, not ideological. I would not assume he’d be replaced by another member of the far left. However, I am genuinely surprised David did not mention Laura Pidcock. It is very clear to me she will be the Corbynista candidate (and there will be only one) when Jeremy does eventually step down. She was the only MP apart from him to feature on Labour’s last PPB and she is put up for media appearances by the leadership on an increasingly frequent basis. She is also not a London MP. She ticks all the boxes.
Imo, it is and it isn’t. Jezza through his long held anti-establishment stance has lucked his way into being the candidate that people appear to pin their own hopes and beliefs onto (regardless of what he has actually said) eg the polling that showed equal number of supporters thought he was pro and anti brexit, students thinking he was going to cancel all student loans, etc.
Labour members like Corbyn because they see themselves in what they see of him: compassionate, under-stated, polite, principled and uncompromising on social justice. The minority among the members that profoundly dislike him see him very differently. I am not sure there is another candidate currently who would be seen in similar ways. I think the next Labour leader will come from the left, but I am not convinced he/she will be as far left and I think that unity is likely to be a very powerful message.
Generally you want your protégés, the people in your succession plan, to be brighter (and harder working) than you. I confess to not knowing enough about the names here but do any of those thrown around fit?
Why not calmly say to them: but she could call a general election?
Indeed.
(i) Time Pressure and (ii) Threat of General Election - these are TM's 2 biggest weapons in the fight to get her deal done
If she cannot get it through by the deadline - i.e. (i) does not work - she will wish to take it to the country rather than cave in and adopt Labour policy.
A referendum on the deal only, ratify 'yes' or 'no', would fit the bill from her viewpoint - but she could not get this through parliament (or probably the EU).
So what is left? A general election.
The threat of which might bring her own side into line sufficiently to pass the deal without the need to call it.
I can't remember the precise details of your bet with SeanT (& fair play to both of you for putting cashmoney on the line), but I assume any extension means you win?
I think the premise of the header is incorrect. Leaders change when either they are discredited or unpopular with the members, so the endorsement of the outgoing leader counts for little, and may even be a mark against.
Leaders change when members want change, and often radical change. That is how Jezza got elected, but the lesson is that after Jezza departs the party may well want a different direction. Electability for example.
The next labour leader is going to have to be a) absolutely 100% a woman and b) cynical enough to tack even further left than Jezza as the post-Brexit culture war will be at unprecedented levels of ferocity by then. That's why Thornberry is the deserved favourite.
I don't think culture war is nessecarily a right/left conflict, the major divide over Brexit is both poles against the centre for example. Certainly the next Labour leader will be seen as a threat to socially conservative English nationalists in the shires, but that will be on social policy. Economic policy need not be extreme, indeed the hipster vote can be quite economically rightwing, as often centred around small businesses and freelancing. Econonomics and social aspects of politics are increasingly divergent.
If we finally leave, then I expect a serious rejoin campaign to start within months.
This could cause a faultline down the centre of Labour which will have a massive impact on next leader contest.
Do you envisage that being an ideologically led campaign, or a more pragmatic - look how badly it's going - one?
I'm sure if Brexit goes badly (beyond initial troubles) that you're right in that such a movement will emerge. If it's ideological (i.e. if Brexit isn't a big disaster) then I can't see that at first it'll be too problematic for either main party. I can see (say) Soubry campaigning from day one, but not too many on her side initially.
It may be that the LDs have more initial trouble, although longer term they could be a big beneficiary.
Likely that LDs would stick with being strongly pro EU and it would be picked up by bigger parties, say Labour, if it proved to be successful and started bringing them in votes. Unless Brexit is a huge and sustained disaster I can't see a big party campaigning to go straight back in if we come out.
What happened to Jess Phillips? Why no mention of her in the leadership stakes? She has that rare quality for a Labour MP of seeming to be a real human being with a sense of humour
I can't remember the precise details of your bet with SeanT (& fair play to both of you for putting cashmoney on the line), but I assume any extension means you win?
The key date was 31st December 2019 so the extension would need to be longer.
Everything I've seen and heard points in that direction TBH, there are always exceptions but from what I've seen your more the rule.
Well you can bet accordingly, but Mays Charisma, her super majority to push through Brexit (and license for Tories to govern for 5 years), the Tory manifesto farce, the Labour manifesto non scrutiny, anti semitism, Corbyn riding two horses on Brexit, and Corbyn consistently poorer leadership ratings against May, all point in my direction. I have seen some very enthusiastic Corbyn supporters in central Bristol where I cover for work. There are banners Etc almost all the time. Just not in the areas that win elections.
How can I bet accordingly on the reasons why people voted Labour in 2017?
You are disagreeing with a point I made about people voting Labour in 2017 with an argument about why Labour will struggle next time. That doesn't make much sense.
As it is the Tories have a host of problems, they look divided these days whereas Labour actually look less divided than they did prior to GE 2017 (which is a low bar admittedly) the Tories problems with Islamophobia and the windrush scandal, the fact Brexit was a top reason for a lot of their voters and they look to be disappointing many supporters on Brexit whereas it was well down in Labour voters top reasons for voting Labour. The Tories will either have to replace May, who actually does have some support, or run with her again and as you note she has great charisma....
Feel free to feel confident but you only seem to consider factors that point in your favour.
If we finally leave, then I expect a serious rejoin campaign to start within months.
This could cause a faultline down the centre of Labour which will have a massive impact on next leader contest.
Do you envisage that being an ideologically led campaign, or a more pragmatic - look how badly it's going - one?
I'm sure if Brexit goes badly (beyond initial troubles) that you're right in that such a movement will emerge. If it's ideological (i.e. if Brexit isn't a big disaster) then I can't see that at first it'll be too problematic for either main party. I can see (say) Soubry campaigning from day one, but not too many on her side initially.
It may be that the LDs have more initial trouble, although longer term they could be a big beneficiary.
Likely that LDs would stick with being strongly pro EU and it would be picked up by bigger parties, say Labour, if it proved to be successful and started bringing them in votes. Unless Brexit is a huge and sustained disaster I can't see a big party campaigning to go straight back in if we come out.
What happened to Jess Phillips? Why no mention of her in the leadership stakes? She has that rare quality for a Labour MP of seeming to be a real human being with a sense of humour
Probably too openly anti left faction of the party or has been in the past. I'm slowly warming to her (from a very cold place) but she has been quite combative in the recent party civil war and on a side which contained less of the members.
I think the premise of the header is incorrect. Leaders change when either they are discredited or unpopular with the members, so the endorsement of the outgoing leader counts for little, and may even be a mark against.
Leaders change when members want change, and often radical change. That is how Jezza got elected, but the lesson is that after Jezza departs the party may well want a different direction. Electability for example.
The next labour leader is going to have to be a) absolutely 100% a woman and b) cynical enough to tack even further left than Jezza as the post-Brexit culture war will be at unprecedented levels of ferocity by then. That's why Thornberry is the deserved favourite.
I don't think culture war is nessecarily a right/left conflict, the major divide over Brexit is both poles against the centre for example. Certainly the next Labour leader will be seen as a threat to socially conservative English nationalists in the shires, but that will be on social policy. Economic policy need not be extreme, indeed the hipster vote can be quite economically rightwing, as often centred around small businesses and freelancing. Econonomics and social aspects of politics are increasingly divergent.
If we finally leave, then I expect a serious rejoin campaign to start within months.
This could cause a faultline down the centre of Labour which will have a massive impact on next leader contest.
Do you envisage that being an ideologically led campaign, or a more pragmatic - look how badly it's going - one?
I'm sure if Brexit goes badly (beyond initial troubles) that you're right in that such a movement will emerge. If it's ideological (i.e. if Brexit isn't a big disaster) then I can't see that at first it'll be too problematic for either main party. I can see (say) Soubry campaigning from day one, but not too many on her side initially.
It may be that the LDs have more initial trouble, although longer term they could be a big beneficiary.
Likely that LDs would stick with being strongly pro EU and it would be picked up by bigger parties, say Labour, if it proved to be successful and started bringing them in votes. Unless Brexit is a huge and sustained disaster I can't see a big party campaigning to go straight back in if we come out.
What happened to Jess Phillips? Why no mention of her in the leadership stakes? She has that rare quality for a Labour MP of seeming to be a real human being with a sense of humour
Why not calmly say to them: but she could call a general election?
Gotta love logic.
A general election doesn’t avoid no deal.
yes It does. 😁
Wake up. EU grant time for the GE to resolve. May winning the GE on her deal, the party fought the election on easily passes the commons.
The People’s Vote dream is dead. No deal nightmare (largely cannily built by the Government spin machine) is so yesterdays news.
This is how it plays out now, William,
EU and Dublin help build the ladders ERG and Labour leavers can use in the commons.
If it don’t look like enough (though i am confident it will) May still puts to commons again, it might pass.
If it doesn’t, she calls the General election. Flow back up to the bit that says wake up.
I don’t want to hurt you, just think its important remainers who still feed the unicorn to realise Hard Brexit is happening on Mays terms.
With you apart from the "May wins the GE on her deal" bit. It is quite unpopular you know. And, one thing less popular than that would be calling an election and spending six weeks droning on and on about its technical merits.
Why not calmly say to them: but she could call a general election?
Indeed.
(i) Time Pressure and (ii) Threat of General Election - these are TM's 2 biggest weapons in the fight to get her deal done
If she cannot get it through by the deadline - i.e. (i) does not work - she will wish to take it to the country rather than cave in and adopt Labour policy.
A referendum on the deal only, ratify 'yes' or 'no', would fit the bill from her viewpoint - but she could not get this through parliament (or probably the EU).
So what is left? A general election.
The threat of which might bring her own side into line sufficiently to pass the deal without the need to call it.
It was war gamed and the stumbling block to calling the GE was MPs, Labour and ERG who don’t feel the bad deal was sufficiently taken back to EU for renegotiation.
Today Saturday 2nd, we are right in middle of that stumbling block to calling the GE being removed. That’s why she chose the route. EU caves, done deal. EU don’t renegotiate then the obstacle to calling it has been removed.
It mighty be Thursday 28th March, or week or two later.
I still think EU and Dublin are melting sufficiently and will blink.
But that's the one issue where politicians in general have been most at fault.
They should have been truthful about the British economy's need for migrant workers. And as May pretty much sat on the fence during the referendum campaign, she's actually more to blame than many of them.
I agree with you that FOM in Europe is a net positive - and IIRC you are right to say that Remain politicians did not make the positive case for it back in 2016. I think this was because they realized the depth of public anti-immigration sentiment and knew they would be on a loser.
Still, they lost anyway, so perhaps they called this wrong.
Why not calmly say to them: but she could call a general election?
Gotta love logic.
A general election doesn’t avoid no deal.
yes It does. 😁
Wake up. EU grant time for the GE to resolve. May winning the GE on her deal, the party fought the election on easily passes the commons.
The People’s Vote dream is dead. No deal nightmare (largely cannily built by the Government spin machine) is so yesterdays news.
This is how it plays out now, William,
EU and Dublin help build the ladders ERG and Labour leavers can use in the commons.
If it don’t look like enough (though i am confident it will) May still puts to commons again, it might pass.
If it doesn’t, she calls the General election. Flow back up to the bit that says wake up.
I don’t want to hurt you, just think its important remainers who still feed the unicorn to realise Hard Brexit is happening on Mays terms.
With you apart from the "May wins the GE on her deal" bit. It is quite unpopular you know. And, one thing less popular than that would be calling an election and spending six weeks droning on and on about its technical merits.
It wont be technical, brexit element of the election will be waffle. The brexit election will be wall to wall stop Corbyn and hard left from gaining power, the brexit deal buried beneath that.
Why not calmly say to them: but she could call a general election?
Gotta love logic.
A general election doesn’t avoid no deal.
yes It does. 😁
Wake up. EU grant time for the GE to resolve. May winning the GE on her deal, the party fought the election on easily passes the commons.
The People’s Vote dream is dead. No deal nightmare (largely cannily built by the Government spin machine) is so yesterdays news.
This is how it plays out now, William,
EU and Dublin help build the ladders ERG and Labour leavers can use in the commons.
If it don’t look like enough (though i am confident it will) May still puts to commons again, it might pass.
If it doesn’t, she calls the General election. Flow back up to the bit that says wake up.
I don’t want to hurt you, just think its important remainers who still feed the unicorn to realise Hard Brexit is happening on Mays terms.
With you apart from the "May wins the GE on her deal" bit. It is quite unpopular you know. And, one thing less popular than that would be calling an election and spending six weeks droning on and on about its technical merits.
It wont be technical, brexit element of the election will be waffle. The brexit election will be wall to wall stop Corbyn and hard left from gaining power, the brexit deal buried beneath that.
TBH that suits Labour, we don't want the election on Brexit either. Same as last time would do quite nicely IMO.
Has anyone talked about the BBC 2 “inside Europe” documentary? I was a reluctant leaver. I declared on here my most likely decision to vote leave on how I felt the EU had humiliated Cameron when he asked for some shift on free movement as a revised deal. Having watched the documentary. I think I might have been wrong on my assessment that he asked for little and got even less.
Listening to Farage denounce what had been a series of tough compromises in a negotiation, I felt embarrassed...
Also brought up the major diplomatic failure it was for Cameron to leave the EPP. Something that Tim repeatedly banged on about. It left him isolated and outside of the loop and discussions resulting in the earlier humiliation of blocking a treaty change and then the EU just creating a new treaty outside of the Eu for the eurozone.
I really enjoyed it. Excellent programme. One of the biggest takeaways for me was the reminder of just how dominant the immigration issue was in everyone's thinking, Remain side and Leave. Much talk these days of May being unreasonable with her 'red lines' but as regards that one - ending FOM hence UK out of the SM - she had little choice.
But that's the one issue where politicians in general have been most at fault.
They should have been truthful about the British economy's need for migrant workers. And as May pretty much sat on the fence during the referendum campaign, she's actually more to blame than many of them.
Just because something is good for the economy doesn’t mean it has democratic support. People vote how they want and Government has to adapt not the other way around...
Sorry, but I think it's plain silly to think that public opinion isn't affected by the words and actions of politicians, as well as affecting them. Each of those things affects the other, and when politicians are too cowardly to tell the truth they have a large share of the responsibility for what happens.
Why not calmly say to them: but she could call a general election?
Gotta love logic.
A general election doesn’t avoid no deal.
yes It does. 😁
Wake up. EU grant time for the GE to resolve. May winning the GE on her deal, the party fought the election on easily passes the commons.
The People’s Vote dream is dead. No deal nightmare (largely cannily built by the Government spin machine) is so yesterdays news.
This is how it plays out now, William,
EU and Dublin help build the ladders ERG and Labour leavers can use in the commons.
If it don’t look like enough (though i am confident it will) May still puts to commons again, it might pass.
If it doesn’t, she calls the General election. Flow back up to the bit that says wake up.
I don’t want to hurt you, just think its important remainers who still feed the unicorn to realise Hard Brexit is happening on Mays terms.
With you apart from the "May wins the GE on her deal" bit. It is quite unpopular you know. And, one thing less popular than that would be calling an election and spending six weeks droning on and on about its technical merits.
It wont be technical, brexit element of the election will be waffle. The brexit election will be wall to wall stop Corbyn and hard left from gaining power, the brexit deal buried beneath that.
TBH that suits Labour, we don't want the election on Brexit either. Same as last time would do quite nicely IMO.
Why not calmly say to them: but she could call a general election?
Gotta love logic.
A general election doesn’t avoid no deal.
yes It does. 😁
Wake up. EU grant time for the GE to resolve. May winning the GE on her deal, the party fought the election on easily passes the commons.
The People’s Vote dream is dead. No deal nightmare (largely cannily built by the Government spin machine) is so yesterdays news.
This is how it plays out now, William,
EU and Dublin help build the ladders ERG and Labour leavers can use in the commons.
If it don’t look like enough (though i am confident it will) May still puts to commons again, it might pass.
If it doesn’t, she calls the General election. Flow back up to the bit that says wake up.
I don’t want to hurt you, just think its important remainers who still feed the unicorn to realise Hard Brexit is happening on Mays terms.
With you apart from the "May wins the GE on her deal" bit. It is quite unpopular you know. And, one thing less popular than that would be calling an election and spending six weeks droning on and on about its technical merits.
It wont be technical, brexit element of the election will be waffle. The brexit election will be wall to wall stop Corbyn and hard left from gaining power, the brexit deal buried beneath that.
Why not calmly say to them: but she could call a general election?
Gotta love logic.
A general election doesn’t avoid no deal.
yes It does. 😁
Wake up. EU grant time for the GE to resolve. May winning the GE on her deal, the party fought the election on easily passes the commons.
The People’s Vote dream is dead. No deal nightmare (largely cannily built by the Government spin machine) is so yesterdays news.
This is how it plays out now, William,
EU and Dublin help build the ladders ERG and Labour leavers can use in the commons.
If it don’t look like enough (though i am confident it will) May still puts to commons again, it might pass.
If it doesn’t, she calls the General election. Flow back up to the bit that says wake up.
I don’t want to hurt you, just think its important remainers who still feed the unicorn to realise Hard Brexit is happening on Mays terms.
With you apart from the "May wins the GE on her deal" bit. It is quite unpopular you know. And, one thing less popular than that would be calling an election and spending six weeks droning on and on about its technical merits.
It wont be technical, brexit element of the election will be waffle. The brexit election will be wall to wall stop Corbyn and hard left from gaining power, the brexit deal buried beneath that.
Because negative campaigning went so well for the Tories last time.
Has anyone talked about the BBC 2 “inside Europe” documentary? I was a reluctant leaver. I declared on here my most likely decision to vote leave on how I felt the EU had humiliated Cameron when he asked for some shift on free movement as a revised deal. Having watched the documentary. I think I might have been wrong on my assessment that he asked for little and got even less.
Listening to Farage denounce what had been a series of tough compromises in a negotiation, I felt embarrassed...
Also brought up the major diplomatic failure it was for Cameron to leave the EPP. Something that Tim repeatedly banged on about. It left him isolated and outside of the loop and discussions resulting in the earlier humiliation of blocking a treaty change and then the EU just creating a new treaty outside of the Eu for the eurozone.
I really enjoyed it. Excellent programme. One of the biggest takeaways for me was the reminder of just how dominant the immigration issue was in everyone's thinking, Remain side and Leave. Much talk these days of May being unreasonable with her 'red lines' but as regards that one - ending FOM hence UK out of the SM - she had little choice.
But that's the one issue where politicians in general have been most at fault.
They should have been truthful about the British economy's need for migrant workers. And as May pretty much sat on the fence during the referendum campaign, she's actually more to blame than many of them.
Just because something is good for the economy doesn’t mean it has democratic support. People vote how they want and Government has to adapt not the other way around...
Sorry, but I think it's plain silly to think that public opinion isn't affected by the words and actions of politicians, as well as affecting them. Each of those things affects the other, and when politicians are too cowardly to tell the truth they have a large share of the responsibility for what happens.
The late great Roy Jenkins would be best described as an enlightened and liberal elitist. He and a few allies got a pile of pioneering legislation through the HoC 50-60 years ago which is now seen as ahead of its time. That's how leadership should work.
Following behind (er, 'respecting') the voters is pathetic and isn't how a parliamentary system is supposed to work.
If we finally leave, then I expect a serious rejoin campaign to start within months.
This could cause a faultline down the centre of Labour which will have a massive impact on next leader contest.
Do you envisage that being an ideologically led campaign, or a more pragmatic - look how badly it's going - one?
I'm sure if Brexit goes badly (beyond initial troubles) that you're right in that such a movement will emerge. If it's ideological (i.e. if Brexit isn't a big disaster) then I can't see that at first it'll be too problematic for either main party. I can see (say) Soubry campaigning from day one, but not too many on her side initially.
It may be that the LDs have more initial trouble, although longer term they could be a big beneficiary.
Likely that LDs would stick with being strongly pro EU and it would be picked up by bigger parties, say Labour, if it proved to be successful and started bringing them in votes. Unless Brexit is a huge and sustained disaster I can't see a big party campaigning to go straight back in if we come out.
What happened to Jess Phillips? Why no mention of her in the leadership stakes? She has that rare quality for a Labour MP of seeming to be a real human being with a sense of humour
Probably too openly anti left faction of the party or has been in the past. I'm slowly warming to her (from a very cold place) but she has been quite combative in the recent party civil war and on a side which contained less of the members.
She left the party while Blair was leader. Seems a good position.
But most disturbing is the disappearance of the concept of facts. If I go on television to debate with a Brexit politician such as Jacob Rees-Mogg or Michael Howard on the Irish border, I can explain a fact I have come to know over a long period of time; he can respond with a barefaced lie about the answer being technology. The journalist, in the interest of balance, can treat the two as if they are of equal weight. Boris Johnson can use the lie that 80 million Turks are about to enter the EU and later deny he ever said anything about Turkey. What are the public supposed to do when faced with such relativism? Nothing is true and everything is possible, as they say in Russia.
Radio 4 had an interview last week with the Swedish guy who wrote the EU’s report on technology. He was confident that it would work with current technologies - justbthat politics was getting in the way
I think once you concede you have to change the timetable to cope with reality the games up. Delay Brexit and it's like the latin for the plural of eggs. It's ova.
It is a complete myth that nobody thought Corbyn was in with a shout in 2017. That was largely true for the three weeks or so following May's announcement on 18th April but was far from being the case by the last week of May. I have spent a few days reading the PB Archives of that campaign , and it was very apparent that a week to ten days before Polling Day there was real fear and panic in Tory ranks - although many were also dismissive of the narrowing poll lead.
Off topic: So British Airways will become non-British after Brexit. Well done leavers - a real result. Take back control!
Aren't they already non-British. BA is owned by IAG, which is technically Anglo-Spanish, but has been headquartered in Spain since they became part of that group.
According to this mornings BBC News they intend to become even more non-British.
Comments
Prepare for a tsunami of " no one explained it properly to me" whinges in the first week of April should it come to pass.
That's longer than Kanye for president.
I can run 10,000 futures and not get even a glimpse of that.
I do love a sporting metaphor.
(NB if such a horror should be contemplated then the Wales v France result makes the current tally 'Sceptics 1 'Philes 0)
IMV leaving without a deal would be a bad outcome but if there is no acceptable deal to be done then I would support it
Especially if it wins. Can you imagine how that will feel. I'll be on cloud nine. It will be 2024 and I will the ONLY person in the shop cashing in that ticket. OMG the looks I'll get.
It was only recently, through a historical audiobook, that I learnt the origin of that phrase.
Secondly, its all done and dusted anyway so why the continued chatter and angst about no deal brexit? Mays deal with fudged backstop is happening though with not enough time to hit end of March without a little delay. Graham Brady actually been talking a lot of sense all through this, if anyone’s listening.
What ensured Mays deal was Corbyn. Labour front bench laissez-faire approach to addressing the questions and decisions of Brexit this winter is beginning to pay a price on the Labour Party now. Corbyns ailing popularity is related to his brexit fence sitting. Equal parts to the equation: fence sitting splintering PLP from his whip (this is on course to end ugly). And was he ever really as popular in the country as the last GE numbers seemed to make him, remainers lending their vote over Brexit for their last hopes, never really on board. The idea he was ever that popular was just a mirage.
Mind you the money bribes to Labour waverers by PM is political genius. The MP goes back to their leave voting constituents saying, you badly want and badly need investment into your community, but I turned it down. Splinters off enough ice from a block for a victory drink, I think.
https://twitter.com/classiclib3ral/status/1091639623820984326
Boycott Paddypower!
"We are so screwed....."
Have they never heard of Ratner?
Listening to Farage denounce what had been a series of tough compromises in a negotiation, I felt embarrassed...
Also brought up the major diplomatic failure it was for Cameron to leave the EPP. Something that Tim repeatedly banged on about. It left him isolated and outside of the loop and discussions resulting in the earlier humiliation of blocking a treaty change and then the EU just creating a new treaty outside of the Eu for the eurozone.
You are 57 varieties of wrongness.
Good on ya. 🙃
No Deal: 3%
May's Deal:1%
Remain: 2%
Oh Christ, when will this all end?: 66%
What's Brexit?: 28%
{don’t tell anybody else Pulpy, but you’ve always been my favourite poster}
"She completed an MSc in Disaster Management and Sustainable Development at Northumbria University in 2012."
(11/4 vs 3/1 elsewhere)
https://www.newstatesman.com/2019/01/rise-and-fall-political-class-0
Gotta love logic.
Any truth her first word spoken was "Fatcha"?
Actually, what am I doing on here this morning? It's nice and bright outside. A little walk down town may be in order.
I DONT CARE ANYMORE WHAT THE DEAL IS: 100%.
Let’s not underestimate the power of winding the clock down as smart tactic.
Worked for Scheherazade?
In fact they're marketing model of publicity seeking wind ups seems remarkably successful.
'I'll take Paddy's mediocre odds cos I want to stick one to them & take money off them' seems not a bad strategy.
This could cause a faultline down the centre of Labour which will have a massive impact on next leader contest.
However, compromise is an agreement to settle somewhere between 2 points. Since there is no position more Leavey than No Deal, it can't be one. Nor could Revoke for that matter.
Who the heck came up with this question?
I'm sure if Brexit goes badly (beyond initial troubles) that you're right in that such a movement will emerge. If it's ideological (i.e. if Brexit isn't a big disaster) then I can't see that at first it'll be too problematic for either main party. I can see (say) Soubry campaigning from day one, but not too many on her side initially.
It may be that the LDs have more initial trouble, although longer term they could be a big beneficiary.
But as you allude, they seem to be of the school of "all publicity is good publicity." I wonder if Gerald Ratner is still happy to be an alumni of that school?
They should have been truthful about the British economy's need for migrant workers. And as May pretty much sat on the fence during the referendum campaign, she's actually more to blame than many of them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47077141
I suspect it'll be quite a dynamic period and ministers will really need to earn their keep in adapting to the new circumstances.
https://twitter.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1091636459747053569?s=21
(i) Time Pressure and (ii) Threat of General Election - these are TM's 2 biggest weapons in the fight to get her deal done
If she cannot get it through by the deadline - i.e. (i) does not work - she will wish to take it to the country rather than cave in and adopt Labour policy.
A referendum on the deal only, ratify 'yes' or 'no', would fit the bill from her viewpoint - but she could not get this through parliament (or probably the EU).
So what is left? A general election.
The threat of which might bring her own side into line sufficiently to pass the deal without the need to call it.
You are disagreeing with a point I made about people voting Labour in 2017 with an argument about why Labour will struggle next time. That doesn't make much sense.
As it is the Tories have a host of problems, they look divided these days whereas Labour actually look less divided than they did prior to GE 2017 (which is a low bar admittedly) the Tories problems with Islamophobia and the windrush scandal, the fact Brexit was a top reason for a lot of their voters and they look to be disappointing many supporters on Brexit whereas it was well down in Labour voters top reasons for voting Labour. The Tories will either have to replace May, who actually does have some support, or run with her again and as you note she has great charisma....
Feel free to feel confident but you only seem to consider factors that point in your favour.
Wake up. EU grant time for the GE to resolve. May winning the GE on her deal, the party fought the election on easily passes the commons.
The People’s Vote dream is dead. No deal nightmare (largely cannily built by the Government spin machine) is so yesterdays news.
This is how it plays out now, William,
EU and Dublin help build the ladders ERG and Labour leavers can use in the commons.
If it don’t look like enough (though i am confident it will) May still puts to commons again, it might pass.
If it doesn’t, she calls the General election. Flow back up to the bit that says wake up.
I don’t want to hurt you, just think its important remainers who still feed the unicorn to realise Hard Brexit is happening on Mays terms.
Today Saturday 2nd, we are right in middle of that stumbling block to calling the GE being removed. That’s why she chose the route. EU caves, done deal. EU don’t renegotiate then the obstacle to calling it has been removed.
It mighty be Thursday 28th March, or week or two later.
I still think EU and Dublin are melting sufficiently and will blink.
Still, they lost anyway, so perhaps they called this wrong.
Following behind (er, 'respecting') the voters is pathetic and isn't how a parliamentary system is supposed to work.