I'm no fan of Len, but it's not been the disaster that some believe. He may be a Trot but he knows what he was elected to do. If unions had a mission statement, it would be "To ensure secure jobs with the best possible benefits for our members."
They weren't elected to increase GDP, increase the UK's standing in the world, or help the Government get re-elected. Not unless that helps with their aims. Some (and Unite are among them) do have wider political aims but they usually understand that it mustn't conflict with the primary aim. That's where conflict can arise.
Bob Crow and Len are probably realists at heart. Arthur Scargill wasn't.
Shale gas is often given as a reason. Haven't seen any numbers myself
Me neither but there must be some de facto local monopolies, or places where there are only a couple of choices.
Yeah, I only have one choice in electricity provider where I am. Same for broadband (although that is a monopoly that is clearly not working, given how expensive and crap it is).
...recovering that final 1.3% will see the unemployment figure fall below the BoE's 7% guidance which is going to mean interest rate rises at some point in 2014.
...
An astute post Max.
But I would disagree with your prediction that the BoE will raise interest rates in 2014 because unemployment has reached the 7% threshold.
Mark Carney addressed this point yesterday in Q&A from journalists and business leaders at an FT special conference. The 7% unemployment threshold is not a target nor is it an automatic trigger for interest rate increases.
Partly because the unemployment rate is easily understood and meaningful to the general public, the BoE MPC are using it as a composite indicator of a number of factors which signal the state of the economy.
The BoE believe that a 5% unemployment rate would indicate full recovery of the productive capacity of the economy lost since the 2007-9 recession. The 7% rate is seen as a milestone en route to full recovery.
However, the Bank is looking not just at the unemployment rate but also productivity. Both the 7% threshold and the 5% 'target' assume that the productivity gap (currently around 8% below 2007 levels) will recover in line with output.
If this happens then output will have to grow at a faster rate than employment. Sometime over the next two years the falls in unemployment will abate as productivity catches up. This is why getting to a 7% unemployment rate will take longer and be more difficult to achieve than simply adding the same amount of growth which delivered the previous 1% fall in the unemployment rate.
Carney made it clear yesterday that a fall in unemployment (even to the pre-announced 7% threshold) without a matching or greater increase in productivity would not be sufficient to justify increasing interest rates.
Expect to hear a lot more about the need to improve productivity over the next few months. Most economists believe it is the only sound means of paying for and achieving much demanded rises in living standards.
DT warning of gusts up to '12 on the Richter scale'. Hold on to your hats people! LOL
And that's their Science Correspondent!
Arse 'n' elbow - Rather embarrassing not to know your Beaufort from your Richter?
What number on the Beaufort scale would cause a 12th magnitude earthquake, I wonder!
As any fool noes - 31.6227 to the power of 0 equals 1, 31.6227 to the power of 1 equals 31.6227 and 31.6227 to the power of 2 equals 1000. Therefore, an 8.0 on the Richter scale releases 31.6227 times more energy than a 7.0 and a 9.0 on the Richter scale releases 1000 times more energy than a 7.0. Thus, E \approx 6.3\times 10^4\times 10^{3M/2}\.
'So Labour supporters want to renationalise the rail network whilst making no significant investment to increase capacity'
At least when the trains were nationalised you could get a half empty compartment in a pre world war 2 carriage to yourself. Each journey was like a magical mystery tour never knowing when the train would depart or arrive and the constant reminder from BR staff what a privilege it was to travel on their trains. The only real negative was the astronomical price of the tickets.
"Roger, in the words of Mr Pork FPT - "Unite made a fool out themselves."
I think he did but that doesn't alter the fact that we have reached a pretty dismal point in our economic evolution when a single billionaire owner can make an 800 strong workforce humiliate themselves in order that they keep their jobs
I know nothing about their work but logic dictates if the business has been failing it's hardly likely to have been caused by the decisions of the 800 cannon fodder.
@Roger – “I know nothing about their work but logic dictates if the business has been failing it's hardly likely to have been caused by the decisions of the 800 cannon fodder.”
Businesses lose money all the time, it is the actions of the CEO that either saves the company from going under, with the subsequent loss of jobs etc, or not.
Unite chose the wrong battle, on the wrong terrain and lost the war.
I've never heard of a 'black hole' in a contribution system. Always seem to appear in a defined benefit system.
If the stock market goes to shit my pension (65% of it) is up shit creek. If I was on Defined Benefit I'd be fine...
What has any of that got to do with the fact this country cant afford to put public sector workers into DC schemes?
Depends how you think about "afford"
AIUI, DB pensions in the public sector (for the most part, with some exceptions) are not funded out of current cash. Hence a move to DC would increase near term cash requirements. This would be matched by closing out a long-term uncertain liability.
I'm sure you can make a good case for it if you do the math
This very simple effort in many ways was one of the most significant British Rail commercials in that it uncovered Tony Kaye one of the more interesting directors of the last 20 years. He famously used 120 rolls of film.
To in fairness to the Nationalised BR they did produce the Class 43 HST - which is more comfortable than the Voyagers used by Virgin and Cross Country.
There is something schizophrenic with the way the public are reacting to business these days. Yesterday we heard how the mighty Bravehearts of Scotland were laid low by billionaire Jim Radcliffe.
Lose pension rights and pay rises for three years and the right to strike and anything else I care to impose or I'll put 800 workers out of a job. Back to the Victorian days and most depressing of all (as Mick points out) the Scots are normally the most socially aware of the four nations.
At the same time we have a government at Westminster who were either born with a silver spoon or who like Jim Radcliffe acquired one and seem totally oblivious to those who weren't and those on the average wage are starting to ask questions. Is this fair? Is this how it has to be? Do we have to be know our place? Who chose these people to be 'Masters of the Universe'?
Jim Radcliffe is not a Master of the Universe but he is Master of his Shareholders Money. If a facility can't justify an investment the investment will not be made.
""The couple, Christos Salis and Eleftheria Dimopoulou, have since been charged with child abduction. They have insisted the girl was given to them legitimately.
Maria is currently being cared for by the Athens-based charity The Smile of the Child. There have been thousands of inquiries following an appeal to identify her.
Ms Ruseva has reportedly admitted giving up a baby in Greece four years ago, but said she received no money.
She is believed to have worked as an olive picker, deciding to give the child away because she was too poor to bring her up.""
So, if the BBC report is accurate, there has been an adoption, whether by sale or free transfer not yet being known.
I very much doubt that the adoption was legal otherwise there would have been supporting documents but this is only conjecture based on second hand information.
Neither surprising nor shocking really, tim. It appears the sunlight of media scrutiny, however sensational and tasteless, is acting as a disinfectant.
Expect to hear a lot more about the need to improve productivity over the next few months. Most economists believe it is the only sound means of paying for and achieving much demanded rises in living standards.
The recent fall in productivity is due to falling oil and gas output, it is a low employment sector with incredibly high economic output. Improving productivity to previous levels can only be achieved by increasing oil and gas output which means fracking in our case since the North Sea is never going to achieve output levels similar to the nineties and early noughties.
Our productivity levels are now closer aligned to the rest of northern Europe which makes sense since the rest of northern Europe doesn't have the same oil and gas interests we do. If we do get fracking then I expect productivity to rise quite rapidly once it gets underway on an industrial scale rather than pilot wells and such.
"Unite should have only one relationship with Labour - “You follow our policies then you get our support”, and that goes for any party on the left."
I thought they did!
It also looks like the guy who started this all off, Union convener, Stephen Deans, who 'did no wrong' in Falkirk has got the sack - Ratcliffe was asked about this on the BBC interview & said that Deans has asked for 5 days to appeal - which is his right - so no announcement can be made until next week and that due process will be followed.
"To in fairness to the Nationalised BR they did produce the Class 43 HST - which is more comfortable than the Voyagers used by Virgin and Cross Country."
I agree. Corporate ads are always difficult. I did this one for Scottish Power which was really just a corporate identity exercise. The only message was we're big and Scottish and look at our new logo (naked girl in a bath-that dates it!)
F1: Boullier has confirmed that the Lotus seat will go to Hulkenberg or Maldonado.
That's a straight Talent Vs Money decision. I really hope Hulkenberg can get the seat, he deserves it *and* he lost his first seat (at Williams) to Maldonado's money.
I'm not saying Maldonado isn't fast, but he is inconsistent, he's been aggressive to the point of dangerous in the past and in a straight comparison of skill he's not in Hulkenberg's league.
"To in fairness to the Nationalised BR they did produce the Class 43 HST - which is more comfortable than the Voyagers used by Virgin and Cross Country."
I agree. Corporate ads are always difficult. I did this one for Scottish Power which was really just a corporate identity exercise. The only message was we're big and Scottish and look at our new logo (naked girl in a bath-that dates it!)
Expect to hear a lot more about the need to improve productivity over the next few months. Most economists believe it is the only sound means of paying for and achieving much demanded rises in living standards.
The recent fall in productivity is due to falling oil and gas output, it is a low employment sector with incredibly high economic output. Improving productivity to previous levels can only be achieved by increasing oil and gas output which means fracking in our case since the North Sea is never going to achieve output levels similar to the nineties and early noughties.
Our productivity levels are now closer aligned to the rest of northern Europe which makes sense since the rest of northern Europe doesn't have the same oil and gas interests we do. If we do get fracking then I expect productivity to rise quite rapidly once it gets underway on an industrial scale rather than pilot wells and such.
It is certainly true that oil and gas extraction is a high productivity industry and that as its output falls as a proportion of GDP the UK's overall productivity levels will be adversely affected.
But the decline in Oil and Gas production has not been the only cause of falling productivity. The current in work benefits scheme has encouraged disproportional increases in part time work and self employment where a minimal amount of productive work is done to qualify for the benefits. Low interest rates and a policy of relaxed enforcement of debt default has led to 'zombie' firms continuing to trade rather than be forced to restructure or liquidate. High levels of low skilled immigration has enabled firms to defer or cancel labour saving capital investment in plant and machinery. Government 'back to work' and apprentice schemes have increased nominal employment without yielding proportionate increases in output. The lag between lay-off and re-employment has resulted in lost skills and the need for unproductive (in the short term) retraining. etc. etc,
Some of these symptoms have been beneficial to the economy in the short term even if they have held back productivity growth. Most of them now need to be worked out of the system as the economy recovers to full capacity.
"To in fairness to the Nationalised BR they did produce the Class 43 HST - which is more comfortable than the Voyagers used by Virgin and Cross Country."
I agree. Corporate ads are always difficult. I did this one for Scottish Power which was really just a corporate identity exercise. The only message was we're big and Scottish and look at our new logo (naked girl in a bath-that dates it!)
As someone old enough to have used both pre- and post- nationalisation British Rail, British Airways, British Telecom and British Gas - I am in no doubt which I prefer.
Perhaps those in favour of nationalisation could offer examples of how service was better 'in the old days'?
Most techie things have progressed over 30-40 years, and only the most diehard UKIP supporter wants to wind the clock back. nor would I support nationalisation where there's effective competition in action, as with telecomms. However, I certainly prefer the current Continental state-owned railway systems to our British shambles. That may be because Continental voters encourage their governments to invest more money in them, of course - but that's a democratic choice, rather than the decision of Regional Monopoly for the Current Decade After That Who Cares Ltd.
"To in fairness to the Nationalised BR they did produce the Class 43 HST - which is more comfortable than the Voyagers used by Virgin and Cross Country."
I agree. Corporate ads are always difficult. I did this one for Scottish Power which was really just a corporate identity exercise. The only message was we're big and Scottish and look at our new logo (naked girl in a bath-that dates it!)
Wouldn't the most appropriate ad for Scottish Power be of a nice spanish lady sleeping on £50 and €50 notes ?
How many old age pensioners did the evil profiteers at Scottish Power have to kill off with hypothermia to pay Roger's fees and Philip Glass's royalties?
As someone old enough to have used both pre- and post- nationalisation British Rail, British Airways, British Telecom and British Gas - I am in no doubt which I prefer.
Perhaps those in favour of nationalisation could offer examples of how service was better 'in the old days'?
Most techie things have progressed over 30-40 years, and only the most diehard UKIP supporter wants to wind the clock back. nor would I support nationalisation where there's effective competition in action, as with telecomms. However, I certainly prefer the current Continental state-owned railway systems to our British shambles. That may be because Continental voters encourage their governments to invest more money in them, of course - but that's a democratic choice, rather than the decision of Regional Monopoly for the Current Decade After That Who Cares Ltd.
I'm not sure if I'm allowed to talk to you without you calling me a stalker, but I'll think you'll find that the Big Four - formed in 1923 - were set up as regional monopolies, and did quite well until the war.
And again, I think you have rose-tinted spectacles about the state of BR pre-privatisation. You may think the current system is a shambles, but traffic is increasing massively, so the users don't necessarily agree with you.
"Roger, in the words of Mr Pork FPT - "Unite made a fool out themselves."
I think he did but that doesn't alter the fact that we have reached a pretty dismal point in our economic evolution when a single billionaire owner can make an 800 strong workforce humiliate themselves in order that they keep their jobs
I know nothing about their work but logic dictates if the business has been failing it's hardly likely to have been caused by the decisions of the 800 cannon fodder.
There's the small possibility that they and all those following the dispute in scotland are actually quite happy for them to keep their jobs to provide for their families, particularly coming up on christmas.
It's hard to believe I known but they might not respect the views of some out of touch advertising twat who is incapable of grasping that Ineos is very, very far from the only large corporation operating and providing jobs in the UK that has a ruthless multi-millionaire owner.
But if you want to keep spinning against the workers and trying to pretend this was a great victory for unite then by all means continue as it in no way makes Labour look like clueless cretins in the pocket of an incompetent union.
Comments
I'm no fan of Len, but it's not been the disaster that some believe. He may be a Trot but he knows what he was elected to do. If unions had a mission statement, it would be "To ensure secure jobs with the best possible benefits for our members."
They weren't elected to increase GDP, increase the UK's standing in the world, or help the Government get re-elected. Not unless that helps with their aims. Some (and Unite are among them) do have wider political aims but they usually understand that it mustn't conflict with the primary aim. That's where conflict can arise.
Bob Crow and Len are probably realists at heart. Arthur Scargill wasn't.
http://www.unitetheunion.org/news/unite-grangemouth-now-has-a-fighting-chance/
...recovering that final 1.3% will see the unemployment figure fall below the BoE's 7% guidance which is going to mean interest rate rises at some point in 2014.
...
An astute post Max.
But I would disagree with your prediction that the BoE will raise interest rates in 2014 because unemployment has reached the 7% threshold.
Mark Carney addressed this point yesterday in Q&A from journalists and business leaders at an FT special conference. The 7% unemployment threshold is not a target nor is it an automatic trigger for interest rate increases.
Partly because the unemployment rate is easily understood and meaningful to the general public, the BoE MPC are using it as a composite indicator of a number of factors which signal the state of the economy.
The BoE believe that a 5% unemployment rate would indicate full recovery of the productive capacity of the economy lost since the 2007-9 recession. The 7% rate is seen as a milestone en route to full recovery.
However, the Bank is looking not just at the unemployment rate but also productivity. Both the 7% threshold and the 5% 'target' assume that the productivity gap (currently around 8% below 2007 levels) will recover in line with output.
If this happens then output will have to grow at a faster rate than employment. Sometime over the next two years the falls in unemployment will abate as productivity catches up. This is why getting to a 7% unemployment rate will take longer and be more difficult to achieve than simply adding the same amount of growth which delivered the previous 1% fall in the unemployment rate.
Carney made it clear yesterday that a fall in unemployment (even to the pre-announced 7% threshold) without a matching or greater increase in productivity would not be sufficient to justify increasing interest rates.
Expect to hear a lot more about the need to improve productivity over the next few months. Most economists believe it is the only sound means of paying for and achieving much demanded rises in living standards.
So the answer is 42.
Consult? It's more case of 'do as your told'. Unite have been bloody lucky.
'So Labour supporters want to renationalise the rail network whilst making no significant investment to increase capacity'
At least when the trains were nationalised you could get a half empty compartment in a pre world war 2 carriage to yourself.
Each journey was like a magical mystery tour never knowing when the train would depart or arrive and the constant reminder from BR staff what a privilege it was to travel on their trains.
The only real negative was the astronomical price of the tickets.
"Roger, in the words of Mr Pork FPT - "Unite made a fool out themselves."
I think he did but that doesn't alter the fact that we have reached a pretty dismal point in our economic evolution when a single billionaire owner can make an 800 strong workforce humiliate themselves in order that they keep their jobs
I know nothing about their work but logic dictates if the business has been failing it's hardly likely to have been caused by the decisions of the 800 cannon fodder.
Have you shifted to the right in response to George's growth tsunami, tim?
Businesses lose money all the time, it is the actions of the CEO that either saves the company from going under, with the subsequent loss of jobs etc, or not.
Unite chose the wrong battle, on the wrong terrain and lost the war.
AIUI, DB pensions in the public sector (for the most part, with some exceptions) are not funded out of current cash. Hence a move to DC would increase near term cash requirements. This would be matched by closing out a long-term uncertain liability.
I'm sure you can make a good case for it if you do the math
To in fairness to the Nationalised BR they did produce the Class 43 HST - which is more comfortable than the Voyagers used by Virgin and Cross Country.
http://www.unitetheunion.org/news/no-parking-ticket-day-on-cards-for-ealing-motorists/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24670654
"Len isnt a Trot, he beat the Trot in the election for General Secretary."
Sorry, I'm not up to date on the finer distinctions.
Possibly the Trot would have been pleased to see Grangemouth disappear as progress in the
fight for the proletarian revolution.
http://www.jerryhicks4gs.org/2013/10/pressrelease-press-release-press.html
I very much doubt that the adoption was legal otherwise there would have been supporting documents but this is only conjecture based on second hand information.
Neither surprising nor shocking really, tim. It appears the sunlight of media scrutiny, however sensational and tasteless, is acting as a disinfectant.
Our productivity levels are now closer aligned to the rest of northern Europe which makes sense since the rest of northern Europe doesn't have the same oil and gas interests we do. If we do get fracking then I expect productivity to rise quite rapidly once it gets underway on an industrial scale rather than pilot wells and such.
I thought they did!
It also looks like the guy who started this all off, Union convener, Stephen Deans, who 'did no wrong' in Falkirk has got the sack - Ratcliffe was asked about this on the BBC interview & said that Deans has asked for 5 days to appeal - which is his right - so no announcement can be made until next week and that due process will be followed.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24670654
"To in fairness to the Nationalised BR they did produce the Class 43 HST - which is more comfortable than the Voyagers used by Virgin and Cross Country."
I agree. Corporate ads are always difficult. I did this one for Scottish Power which was really just a corporate identity exercise. The only message was we're big and Scottish and look at our new logo (naked girl in a bath-that dates it!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWG43VGvuCc&feature=youtu.be
Neil,
Poor old Len, cast in the role of fascist running dog to the capitalist hyena, or something (as you see, I'm well out of date).
http://toys.usvsth3m.com/austerity-ninja/
That's a straight Talent Vs Money decision. I really hope Hulkenberg can get the seat, he deserves it *and* he lost his first seat (at Williams) to Maldonado's money.
I'm not saying Maldonado isn't fast, but he is inconsistent, he's been aggressive to the point of dangerous in the past and in a straight comparison of skill he's not in Hulkenberg's league.
Edited extra bit: ahem, here's the link: http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/12473/8990514/eric-boullier-reveals-either-nico-hulkenberg-or-pastor-maldonado-will-join-lotus
Con Majority and Lib Dem annihilation...
But the decline in Oil and Gas production has not been the only cause of falling productivity. The current in work benefits scheme has encouraged disproportional increases in part time work and self employment where a minimal amount of productive work is done to qualify for the benefits. Low interest rates and a policy of relaxed enforcement of debt default has led to 'zombie' firms continuing to trade rather than be forced to restructure or liquidate. High levels of low skilled immigration has enabled firms to defer or cancel labour saving capital investment in plant and machinery. Government 'back to work' and apprentice schemes have increased nominal employment without yielding proportionate increases in output. The lag between lay-off and re-employment has resulted in lost skills and the need for unproductive (in the short term) retraining. etc. etc,
Some of these symptoms have been beneficial to the economy in the short term even if they have held back productivity growth. Most of them now need to be worked out of the system as the economy recovers to full capacity.
You cant blame me for believing a pbc-er who says they think Labour follows Unite's orders!
I think we should be told.
And again, I think you have rose-tinted spectacles about the state of BR pre-privatisation. You may think the current system is a shambles, but traffic is increasing massively, so the users don't necessarily agree with you.
And if you're talking about the glories of the continental railway systems:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halle_train_collision
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Granges-près-Marnand_train_crash
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santiago_de_Compostela_derailment
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brétigny-sur-Orge_train_crash
and more.
It's hard to believe I known but they might not respect the views of some out of touch advertising twat who is incapable of grasping that Ineos is very, very far from the only large corporation operating and providing jobs in the UK that has a ruthless multi-millionaire owner.
But if you want to keep spinning against the workers and trying to pretend this was a great victory for unite then by all means continue as it in no way makes Labour look like clueless cretins in the pocket of an incompetent union.