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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The known unknown in this year’s local elections: Ukip cont

SystemSystem Posts: 12,212
edited April 2013 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The known unknown in this year’s local elections: Ukip contesting more than 70 percent of the seats

Each year the Rallings and Thrasher electoral analysis duo from the University of Plymouth set out their predictions for the May local elections. Much of it is based on their assessment of national vote from the local by-elections that we now monitor on PB every week.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited April 2013
    UKIPs PPB

    I thought it was pretty good. Everyday people and their aspirations, it makes it appear as though UKIP are more in touch with the real world

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Good news from an important segment of the mortgage market

    Lending to first time buyers is up even before the government's targetted stimulus comes into effect. Looks like George is on to a winner here.

    The number of first-time buyers in Britain hit the highest level in five years in the first two months of 2013, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said.

    Lending to first-time buyers rose by 3.1% to 16,400 in February compared to 15,900 in January as people took advantage of more favourable market conditions, according to the latest industry data.

    The figure was up 17% on the prior year’s 14,000.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    sam said:

    UKIPs PPB

    I thought it was pretty good. Everyday people and their aspirations, it makes it appear as though UKIP are more in touch with the real world

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA

    Farage needs a new tailor and shirtmaker.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,512
    If anything, I think UKIP make Labour's task harder in Staffordshire, by being genuine contenders in some working class divisions that Labour might otherwise hope to take.
  • MBoyMBoy Posts: 104
    Hard to predict what the effect will be in Devon, Cornwall and Somerset, there the LDs are contesting the Tories. Could hand those councils to the LDs.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    sam said:

    UKIPs PPB

    I thought it was pretty good. Everyday people and their aspirations, it makes it appear as though UKIP are more in touch with the real world

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA

    Pretty well produced, but all motherhood and apple pie platitudes. 90% of the statements would be agreed to by all parties.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    Ukip could beat the LDs on votes
    Possible and while it might be overshadowed if the tories have a bloodbath there is little point pretending that yet another hammering for the lib dems at the locals will focus lib dem activists minds on just how much more of this they can take under Clegg.

    The lib dems will want a half decent showing or Farron, Vince and friends will start popping up with ever more frequency having to give their unwavering support to Clegg.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,512
    MBoy said:

    Hard to predict what the effect will be in Devon, Cornwall and Somerset, there the LDs are contesting the Tories. Could hand those councils to the LDs.

    I think UKIP will poll very well in Devon and Cornwall (probably winning more votes than Labour in each county) - but, as you say, it's hard to tell what their impact will be.

    Suppose you have some ward that split Con 30%, LD 25%, UKIP 18%, Independent 15%, Others 12 in 2009, who's going to win it now?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    David Wright Miliband has just been appointed to the Manor of Northstead
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,423
    edited April 2013
    I wrote an interesting, thoughtful and concise response to this threader, and it got eaten somewhere on a distant webserver.

    'Discussion ID needed' or somesuch, but I was shown as being logged on. And I haven't re-logged on since, yet can post now.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    It's going to be an interesting election to see if UKIP can make a break through, or if they hand a lot of seats to other parties from the tories.

    I'm going to be voting UKIP for once probably, why not shake things up a bit...
  • samsam Posts: 727
    AveryLP said:

    sam said:

    UKIPs PPB

    I thought it was pretty good. Everyday people and their aspirations, it makes it appear as though UKIP are more in touch with the real world

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA

    Farage needs a new tailor and shirtmaker.

    Too smart and he wouldn't seem like "one of us"!!!!

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Winterton is moving the writ for South Shields right now
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    UKIP's "my Britain" seems to be 100% English, but I would have expected nothing less.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    David Wright Miliband has just been appointed to the Manor of Northstead


    That's Northstead relegated from the football league.

  • samsam Posts: 727
    Jonathan said:

    sam said:

    UKIPs PPB

    I thought it was pretty good. Everyday people and their aspirations, it makes it appear as though UKIP are more in touch with the real world

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA

    Pretty well produced, but all motherhood and apple pie platitudes. 90% of the statements would be agreed to by all parties.


    Yes, but I think the point of having Farage on last is to emphasise that a lot of the things hoped for by the previous people would only be possible if we left the EU.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Before the PB Tories try to persuade themselves that UKIP are damaging the left the ratio of 2010 voters going to UKIP is Con 4, LD 2, Lab 1.

    You've made that exact post at least 3 or 4 times now and it still remains a strawman.

    Looking backwards (at the current UKIP voters) the damage is mainly to the Tories.

    It doesn't automatically follow that the future switchers will be in the same proportion - so the future damage may be greater to the Left than to the Right.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    MBoy said:

    Hard to predict what the effect will be in Devon, Cornwall and Somerset, there the LDs are contesting the Tories. Could hand those councils to the LDs.

    EU is quite unpopular in the SW and especially Cornwall (fishing). LD's pro-EU stance could well work against them.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    tim said:

    Before the PB Tories try to persuade themselves that UKIP are damaging the left the ratio of 2010 voters going to UKIP is Con 4, LD 2, Lab 1.

    At Eastleigh, UKIP attracted: 22% 2010 Con, 19% 2010 LD, and 17% 2010 Lab.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Eastleigh-callback-poll-summary.pdf

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Financier said:

    MBoy said:

    Hard to predict what the effect will be in Devon, Cornwall and Somerset, there the LDs are contesting the Tories. Could hand those councils to the LDs.

    EU is quite unpopular in the SW and especially Cornwall (fishing). LD's pro-EU stance could well work against them.
    Thought that the local LDs ran on a pretty anti-EU (or at least anti CFP) platform? Classic example of LibDems inconsistency
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,512
    tim said:

    Before the PB Tories try to persuade themselves that UKIP are damaging the left the ratio of 2010 voters going to UKIP is Con 4, LD 2, Lab 1.

    Perhaps, but I daresay a fair number of the 2010 Conservatives will have for other parties in 1997-2005.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    Mr. Jessop, I had a similar issue, just once, a few days ago.

    Mr. Jonathan, *every* party spouts tedious, banal nonsense like that.

    Best way to discern whether a politician is worth listening to is to reverse their message. If it remains a coherent, valid opinion then they're saying something of value.

    For example:
    Labour's 2005 slogan Forward Not Back. Who would be in favour of backwardness?

    A smaller state is better for the country. Debatable, but a valid opinion, as is the opposite.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Charles said:

    so the future damage may be greater to the Left than to the Right.

    Whatever helps you sleep at night. It's possible, of course, just extremely unlikely.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    sam said:

    Jonathan said:

    sam said:

    UKIPs PPB

    I thought it was pretty good. Everyday people and their aspirations, it makes it appear as though UKIP are more in touch with the real world

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA

    Pretty well produced, but all motherhood and apple pie platitudes. 90% of the statements would be agreed to by all parties.


    Yes, but I think the point of having Farage on last is to emphasise that a lot of the things hoped for by the previous people would only be possible if we left the EU.
    Sam, it has the locations, characters and costumes of an early 1960s comedy of manners.

    I half expected Barbara Windsor to be goosed by Sid James to the detached amusement of Charles Hawtrey.

    It is pure "Carry on Kipping".
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    @Charles

    Thats where we are at the moment, the polls back it up.
    If you want to extrapolate forward go ahead, but you're just guessing

    You're the one extrapolating - mixing up future and past.

    All I'm saying is that they will likely be different.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    JamesKelly said:

    UKIP's "my Britain" seems to be 100% English, but I would have expected nothing less.

    Another crass generalisation from a synthetic " Scottish " nationalist.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    anotherDave said:

    tim said:

    Before the PB Tories try to persuade themselves that UKIP are damaging the left the ratio of 2010 voters going to UKIP is Con 4, LD 2, Lab 1.

    At Eastleigh, UKIP attracted: 22% 2010 Con, 19% 2010 LD, and 17% 2010 Lab.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Eastleigh-callback-poll-summary.pdf

    As I posted last night , those are not facts but the findings of one poll which in fact had the Conservatives finishing second to the Lib Dems in it's sample .

  • samsam Posts: 727
    AveryLP said:

    sam said:

    Jonathan said:

    sam said:

    UKIPs PPB

    I thought it was pretty good. Everyday people and their aspirations, it makes it appear as though UKIP are more in touch with the real world

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA

    Pretty well produced, but all motherhood and apple pie platitudes. 90% of the statements would be agreed to by all parties.


    Yes, but I think the point of having Farage on last is to emphasise that a lot of the things hoped for by the previous people would only be possible if we left the EU.
    Sam, it has the locations, characters and costumes of a late 1950s early 1960s film comedy of manners.

    I half expected Barbara Windsor to be goosed by Sid James to the detached amusement of Charles Hawtrey.

    It is pure "Carry on Kipping".

    The carry on films were popular with working class people but sneered at by snobs and lefty intellectuals, so you could be on to something with that analogy
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    sam said:

    AveryLP said:

    sam said:

    UKIPs PPB

    I thought it was pretty good. Everyday people and their aspirations, it makes it appear as though UKIP are more in touch with the real world

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA

    Farage needs a new tailor and shirtmaker.

    Too smart and he wouldn't seem like "one of us"!!!!

    Yes, but the ladies like a man in a good shirt and suit.

    Turnbull & Asser still make their shirts in the UK and can be made to measure if the problem is the body and not the shirt.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Charles said:

    tim said:

    @Charles

    Thats where we are at the moment, the polls back it up.
    If you want to extrapolate forward go ahead, but you're just guessing

    You're the one extrapolating - mixing up future and past.

    All I'm saying is that they will likely be different.
    Charles, I think tim is making a reverential allusion to the Order of Service for the Blessed Margaret's funeral.

    It would have been more obvious had he quoted T.S. Eliot's "Little Gidding" directly:

    What we call the beginning is often the end
    And to make an end is to make a beginning.
    The end is where we start from.

    Still, tim was nearly right. Like his prediction that an Argentine would win the US Masters. Close but no cigar.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MarkSenior said:

    anotherDave said:

    tim said:

    Before the PB Tories try to persuade themselves that UKIP are damaging the left the ratio of 2010 voters going to UKIP is Con 4, LD 2, Lab 1.

    At Eastleigh, UKIP attracted: 22% 2010 Con, 19% 2010 LD, and 17% 2010 Lab.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Eastleigh-callback-poll-summary.pdf

    As I posted last night , those are not facts but the findings of one poll which in fact had the Conservatives finishing second to the Lib Dems in it's sample .

    Clearly we must resolve this matter. I shall send my second to call on you.

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Farage went to Dulwich College as did Bob Monkhouse , P.G.Wodehouse and Raymond Chandler. He seems to exhibit elements of all three . He's the perfect antidote to the humourless hysteria of left-wing comics.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited April 2013
    UKIP seem to be fighting the local elections on national issues.

    We have UKIP candidates in every Division in Bucks but I have not seen any leaflets yet. UKIP gained two district councillors at the last District election but with 4000 houses in each Division, without boots on the ground it is not wasy to get any mesage delivered in County Council elections. This is especially true in rural Bucks areas.

    Presumably, in other areas with two member divisions the number of houses in a division is even greater and it's even harder to cover the area with leaflets.

    So fighting the election on national issues is what UKIP probably have to resort to in the absence of local organisation.


  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    I am the first commentator in the past few days to include Margaret Thatcher in the same sentence as Monica Lewinsky.

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/04/15/thatcher-time-move/

    In short, the Tories should get up off their knees, swallow their pride, brush themselves down and close their mouths.
    We know you're all choked, but get over it.

    Kellner's findings do vindicate the decision to hold a 'state' funeral for the old bird.

    Perhaps that means he will be attending to support his wife's official representation.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    @Charles.

    OK Charles, lets ignore all polling which by it's very nature only reflects "the past" and take a trip into Charles' world of guesswork based on absolutely nothing at all.

    I never made any statement about what I think the future would be.

    I just pointed out that your bold assertion that the PB Tories were wrong based on historical data was flawed.

    Remember: past performance is no indication of future performance. Shares may go up as well as down.
  • hughphughp Posts: 11
    For what it is worth, it does not seem that fishing is an issue at all in this year's Cornwall County Council elections. Rather, the focus has been on the failings of the Conservative-Independent coalition that has been running the Council, exemplified by a succession of leadership changes and sudden reversals of policy positions.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Jonathan said:

    sam said:

    UKIPs PPB

    I thought it was pretty good. Everyday people and their aspirations, it makes it appear as though UKIP are more in touch with the real world

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA

    Pretty well produced, but all motherhood and apple pie platitudes. 90% of the statements would be agreed to by all parties.

    Agree - three things struck me ; the "ordinary people" looked more ordinary than in other PPBs, they included an ethnic Asian, and Farage deliberately played to his "bloke down the pub" theme, with a half finished pint by his side. Of course it said nothing whatsoever about what a UKIP Councillor would do on rates or bins or roads.....we'll find out soon enough whether that matters, or whether in a mid-term protest vote it does not.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @David_Evershed

    The amount of money UKIP suggested it was throwing at this election would pay for a lot of leaflet deliveries in a lot of target wards. They only have to take care to keep within spending limits!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,403
    Remember, only the Lib Dems can finish third under First Past The Post ! ;)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Candidates selected so far for the general election:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Al Beeb ticker

    Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust is to be put into administration, health regulator Monitor announces.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    CarlottaVance said:

    Jonathan said:

    sam said:

    UKIPs PPB

    I thought it was pretty good. Everyday people and their aspirations, it makes it appear as though UKIP are more in touch with the real world

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA

    Pretty well produced, but all motherhood and apple pie platitudes. 90% of the statements would be agreed to by all parties.

    Agree - three things struck me ; the "ordinary people" looked more ordinary than in other PPBs, they included an ethnic Asian, and Farage deliberately played to his "bloke down the pub" theme, with a half finished pint by his side. Of course it said nothing whatsoever about what a UKIP Councillor would do on rates or bins or roads.....we'll find out soon enough whether that matters, or whether in a mid-term protest vote it does not.

    Think the point is that Farage really is like a bloke youd chat to down the pub, unlike Cameron's clumsy attempt so seem so with his badly poured pint of Guinness
  • SthLondonNickSthLondonNick Posts: 26
    SkyNewsBreak: Health regulator Monitor announces Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust is to be put into administration

    https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/323799095078686720
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    CarlottaVance said:

    Jonathan said:

    sam said:

    UKIPs PPB

    I thought it was pretty good. Everyday people and their aspirations, it makes it appear as though UKIP are more in touch with the real world

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA

    Pretty well produced, but all motherhood and apple pie platitudes. 90% of the statements would be agreed to by all parties.

    Agree - three things struck me ; the "ordinary people" looked more ordinary than in other PPBs, they included an ethnic Asian, and Farage deliberately played to his "bloke down the pub" theme, with a half finished pint by his side. Of course it said nothing whatsoever about what a UKIP Councillor would do on rates or bins or roads.....we'll find out soon enough whether that matters, or whether in a mid-term protest vote it does not.

    At least some of the faces in that PPB looked like UKIP people. I think I saw Lisa Duffey, Angharad Yeo, and Jane Collins.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    anotherDave said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Jonathan said:

    sam said:

    UKIPs PPB


    I thought it was pretty good. Everyday people and their aspirations, it makes it appear as though UKIP are more in touch with the real world

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Cw0ejfjX2yA

    Pretty well produced, but all motherhood and apple pie platitudes. 90% of the statements would be agreed to by all parties.

    Agree - three things struck me ; the "ordinary people" looked more ordinary than in other PPBs, they included an ethnic Asian, and Farage deliberately played to his "bloke down the pub" theme, with a half finished pint by his side. Of course it said nothing whatsoever about what a UKIP Councillor would do on rates or bins or roads.....we'll find out soon enough whether that matters, or whether in a mid-term protest vote it does not.

    At least some of the faces in that PPB looked like UKIP people. I think I saw Lisa Duffey, Angharad Yeo, and Jane Collins.
    The working class kid in blue socks is the founder of the UKIpian, Michael Heaver I think
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    The trust which runs Stafford Hospital is to be put into administration by the health regulator Monitor.

    Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust will be run by two specially appointed administrators to "safeguard the future of health services" currently provided. Dr Hugo Mascie-Taylor and Alan Bloom of Ernst and Young will take over the running of the trust tomorrow. It will become the first foundation trust to face administration.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-22157149
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Forthcoming Labour selections:

    Gloucester: 20th April 2013
    Bermondsey & Old Southwark: 8th June 2013
    Enfield North: 23rd June 2013
    Hornsey & Wood Green: 23rd June 2013
    Hendon: 7th July 2013
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited April 2013
    The John Major Tribute Mili-Band in Bristol on Saturday. I come to bury Thatcher not to praise her.

    http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/Ed-Miliband-defends-Labour-s-decision-boycott/story-18708891-detail/story.html#axzz2QXThmHX8
  • samsam Posts: 727
    tim said:

    @Sam

    You mean this one

    http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/2011+Jan/david-cameron-drinks-guinness-while-samantha-holds-florence-pic-conservative-party-545377696.jpg

    Shake it up baby now.

    That could be the same one Farage is drinking in the PPB! Would it have settled by now???

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2013
    Bercow on Thatcher funeral - most appropriate means of showing respect for chimes of Big Ben & Great Clock silent for time of funeral service. Maude says tvm.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Here comes Bercow.

    The chimes of Big Ben and the chimes of the Big Clock will be silenced during the proceedings.

    A profound dignity and deep respect will be expressed through silence.

    If only Bercow would follow this principle.

    A pint of Guinness all round to celebrate the right decision by the Speaker.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Thanks to PBers on previous threads re comments on Lost. I've waded through S1 & S2 so far and just starting on S3. I can't decide what I think of it - bits are good, other bits really annoying, the plot holes are epic and it keeps jumping to/fro.

    I will persist as there's not much else about as we're in that funny hiatus between tv seasons - how it got such enormous viewing figures is beyond me :^O
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,403
    AveryLP said:

    Here comes Bercow.

    The chimes of Big Ben and the chimes of the Big Clock will be silenced during the proceedings.

    A profound dignity and deep respect will be expressed through silence.

    If only Bercow would follow this principle.

    He'd better remove his wife's tablets, PCs, phones and anything else she can access twitter with pdq !
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    FPT @anotherDave said "the current govrnment is not attempting to cut the budget deficit" Well they say they've cut it by a third, was this by accident? Were you educated ay the ukip school of economics?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The reason the Left hates Thatcher so much is that she stole the working class from them. And she was able to do this because she understood and shared their aspirations.

    Behind the bluster about her death this week are two very different visions of the working class. According to the Left, the proles are oppressed, and the source of that oppression is economic freedom. The Left wants the working class living in state housing, travelling on state transport, working in state-controlled jobs, receiving a state education. The Left fights not to change, but to preserve working practices and “working class communities”, as it offensively calls them.

    Mrs Thatcher had a sneaking suspicion that people wanted to own their own home, perhaps in a leafy suburb rather than a council estate. She had the idea that “working class” people wanted the things she wanted – to leave money to their children, to own a few shares, maybe start a little company, go on foreign holidays, own a car – maybe even two cars! She was right. They did want this, which is why ordinary working people voted for her in huge numbers."
    http://www.martindurkin.com/short-thoughts/margaret-death-revolutionary
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2013
    perdix said:

    FPT @anotherDave said "the current govrnment is not attempting to cut the budget deficit" Well they say they've cut it by a third, was this by accident? Were you educated ay the ukip school of economics?

    The word I used was 'tackle'.
    anotherDave said:

    perdix said:

    It was a practical, pragmatic arrangement for a 5 year term to allow a relatively stable government to tackle the problems of the deficit, to avoid spooking the markets.

    The current government is not attempting to tackle the budget deficit. They raised taxes, but they refuse to cut government spending.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331505/austerity-uk-edition-part-2-veronique-de-rugy
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Neil said:

    @David_Evershed

    The amount of money UKIP suggested it was throwing at this election would pay for a lot of leaflet deliveries in a lot of target wards. They only have to take care to keep within spending limits!

    In rural Bucks the cost of paying for leaflets to be delivered is three times the cost of the leaflet. The election expense allowance is insufficient to cover the cost of one leaflet to be delivered across a division if delivery is paid for. Hand deliveries by volunteers do not count towards the expense allowance. Volunteer deliverers are a god send for local parties.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,040
    @Plato

    Southland & Good Wife are currently or were the best things on TV and have been for a while if you've not seen them (I'm sure you have), both on later series.



  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    Plato said:

    Thanks to PBers on previous threads re comments on Lost. I've waded through S1 & S2 so far and just starting on S3. I can't decide what I think of it - bits are good, other bits really annoying, the plot holes are epic and it keeps jumping to/fro.

    I will persist as there's not much else about as we're in that funny hiatus between tv seasons - how it got such enormous viewing figures is beyond me :^O

    At your reminder, am half way through S1. Seems good so far, but some things were just plain silly. Like the golf course.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,984
    Afternoon all :)

    I commented on the situation in Guildford last week. In 2009, the ten County Council seats split 7 Conservative to 3 Liberal Democrat on the back of two Conservative gains.

    With the Tories failing to put up a candidate in Shalford, I think the split this time might be 5-4-1 with the LDs capturing one seat back from the Tories and UKIP gaining Shalford. I expect UKIP to put up a rack of second places in seats like Ash, Shere and possibly Worplesdon but the Conservative majorities are very large (in the area of 30-40%( and it's hard to see UKIP picking up any of these as the swings required would be enormous.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Expectations management between O'Flynn of Express & Tom Watson On Locals:

    O'Flynn: Labour source '200 outstanding' As if.
    Watson: 250 tops
    O'Flynn: 400 & you could do it too.
    Watson: 250 tops & difficult.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Breaking - when Gordon Brown dies an antique 2006 Nokia 2300 will be switched to silent mode.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Another crass generalisation from a synthetic " Scottish " nationalist."

    I presume that means I'm not "really" Scottish because I have Irish/French-Canadian ancestry. Let's call a spade a spade - you're a racist, my friend.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    o/t - the constitutional convention in Ireland voted overwhelmingly to bring forward an amendment to allow for same-sex marriage. Unfortunately the Justice Minister introduced a few obstacles before the issue is put to the people so the speculative punt with Paddy Power for a referendum on the issue this year probably wont come through.
  • JonCJonC Posts: 67
    Whilst i am pretty Eurosceptic in terms of keeping powers in the UK and would perhaps consider a UKIP protest vote on that basis, they are 180 degrees wrong on Eastern European immigration which is a free market issue and on the list of "[pros" of EU membership for me. Locally to me there has been quite a lot of Polish coming in, and they are uniformly polite and hard working AFAICS. They claim disproportionately less benefits and some of them are pretty fit too :-)

    Last local elections I voted for 2 tories and an independent as a token protest rather than the slate of 3 tories (what a rebel!). but there are no independents standing in my area this time. So UKIP are out, LDs and Labour a clear no-no, so the tories' hopes for my vote may rest on whether it's raining or not!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Wind energy developers are celebrating today after the high court ruled that Milton Keynes Borough Council's attempts to impose a 'buffer zone' for new wind farm projects were unlawful.

    In what had been widely regarded as a crucial test case that could have established a precedent for councils around the country, Judge John Howells QC rejected the council's attempts to change its local development plan to include new rules blocking the development of any large wind turbines within 1.2km of residential properties."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/apr/15/high-court-buffer-zones-windfarms
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    One of the three remaining phone polls, from ICM, is due out tonight.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,141
    edited April 2013
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Farage went to Dulwich College as did Bob Monkhouse , P.G.Wodehouse and Raymond Chandler. He seems to exhibit elements of all three.


    You mean sexual licentiousness, a naive attitude towards the extreme right and alcoholism?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    Janice Turner ‏@VictoriaPeckham
    Tory MPs now calling for government to seed clouds over Westminster "so the sky cries".

    And it came to pass that the God of heaven looked upon the residue of the people, and he wept; and Enoch bore record of it, saying: How is it that the heavens weep, and shed forth their tears as the rain upon the mountains?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVltBwgtxr4

    Gordon sings for a nation.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,141
    JamesKelly said:

    "Another crass generalisation from a synthetic " Scottish " nationalist."

    I presume that means I'm not "really" Scottish because I have Irish/French-Canadian ancestry. Let's call a spade a spade - you're a racist, my friend.

    Come, come, MonikerDiCanio is a fascist, not a racist.


  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    David_Evershed said:

    Neil said:

    @David_Evershed

    The amount of money UKIP suggested it was throwing at this election would pay for a lot of leaflet deliveries in a lot of target wards. They only have to take care to keep within spending limits!

    In rural Bucks the cost of paying for leaflets to be delivered is three times the cost of the leaflet. The election expense allowance is insufficient to cover the cost of one leaflet to be delivered across a division if delivery is paid for. Hand deliveries by volunteers do not count towards the expense allowance. Volunteer deliverers are a god send for local parties.
    The Speccy disputed whether leaflets persuaded swing voters. Do they make a noticeable difference?

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    anotherDave said:


    The Speccy disputed whether leaflets persuaded swing voters. Do they make a noticeable difference?

    Absolutely they do. Maybe not the 50th leaflet of a by-election campaign but in a normal local election campaign they are crucial.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    British businesses show support for Dave's plan to renegotiate powers from the EU, as revealed by British Chambers of Commerce survey.

    A high proportion of UK companies want a renegotiation of Britain's membership in the EU, with certain powers returned to Westminster.

    Of the 4,000 companies surveyed, 64% said that transferring power back to Britain would have positive effect on businesses in the UK.

    11% said they felt it would have a negative impact, 14% no impact, while the rest were unsure.

    A number of respondents identified employment law as the area they felt would most benefit from being brought back to London.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    anotherDave said:

    David_Evershed said:

    Neil said:

    @David_Evershed

    The amount of money UKIP suggested it was throwing at this election would pay for a lot of leaflet deliveries in a lot of target wards. They only have to take care to keep within spending limits!

    In rural Bucks the cost of paying for leaflets to be delivered is three times the cost of the leaflet. The election expense allowance is insufficient to cover the cost of one leaflet to be delivered across a division if delivery is paid for. Hand deliveries by volunteers do not count towards the expense allowance. Volunteer deliverers are a god send for local parties.
    The Speccy disputed whether leaflets persuaded swing voters. Do they make a noticeable difference?

    It's impossible to know (and perhaps rather unlikely) that leaflets alone persuade swing voters to switch party but they do serve to remind voters that a party is active on the ground in their area. The Lib Dems in particular have won many a council seat on the back of an active local campaign based entirely on regular leaflet delivery.
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    tim said:

    @AndyJS

    Of course he's a contrarian who avoids the fact that 2 Million people were dependent on benefit when Thatcher came to power and 6 million when she left.

    Of course that is so much worse than after Tony and Gordon left office with an estimated 7 Million households. Yes household not people! That is if you take the labour friendly telegraph figure. According to those of the hard right Guardian 9.6 million households get more than half their income from benefits.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1542427/One-third-of-homes-dependent-on-benefits.html
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/06/welfare-britain-facts-myths
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    New SeanT Telegraph article:
    "The developing world has turned Thatcherite. No wonder it's overtaking us":
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100212162/the-developing-world-has-turned-thatcherite-no-wonder-its-overtaking-us/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Apparently UKIP have a party election broadcast scheduled for today.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633


    Millionaire ignores parking rules - they must be for the little people.


    http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/SLIDESHOW-Ed-Miliband-hits-campaign-trail-in-Cambridge-20130415160716.htm

    "Labour leader Ed Miliband hit the campaign trail in Cambridge ahead of county council elections - but blundered by leaving his car parked on double yellow lines.

    Meeting voters yesterday before giving a stump speech in Market Hill, Mr Miliband said he expected his party to make gains in the polls on May 2."

    "Mary Rose Noel, 53, from Chesterton, was less impressed with Mr Miliband’s response when she quizzed him on benefit reforms."
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Is that tomorrows Mirror front page sorted then ??

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited April 2013
    Has anyone had any leaflets from Candidates? Only one from the Yellow Peril has landed on the doormat.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Have you tried parking in central Cambridge? It's just about impossible.
    TGOHF said:



    Millionaire ignores parking rules - they must be for the little people.


    http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/SLIDESHOW-Ed-Miliband-hits-campaign-trail-in-Cambridge-20130415160716.htm

    "Labour leader Ed Miliband hit the campaign trail in Cambridge ahead of county council elections - but blundered by leaving his car parked on double yellow lines.

    Meeting voters yesterday before giving a stump speech in Market Hill, Mr Miliband said he expected his party to make gains in the polls on May 2."

    "Mary Rose Noel, 53, from Chesterton, was less impressed with Mr Miliband’s response when she quizzed him on benefit reforms."

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,512
    AndyJS said:

    "The reason the Left hates Thatcher so much is that she stole the working class from them. And she was able to do this because she understood and shared their aspirations.

    Behind the bluster about her death this week are two very different visions of the working class. According to the Left, the proles are oppressed, and the source of that oppression is economic freedom. The Left wants the working class living in state housing, travelling on state transport, working in state-controlled jobs, receiving a state education. The Left fights not to change, but to preserve working practices and “working class communities”, as it offensively calls them.

    Mrs Thatcher had a sneaking suspicion that people wanted to own their own home, perhaps in a leafy suburb rather than a council estate. She had the idea that “working class” people wanted the things she wanted – to leave money to their children, to own a few shares, maybe start a little company, go on foreign holidays, own a car – maybe even two cars! She was right. They did want this, which is why ordinary working people voted for her in huge numbers."
    http://www.martindurkin.com/short-thoughts/margaret-death-revolutionary

    Certainly, the Conservatives polled very well among working class voters under Thatcher.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    ICM

    32/38/15/9

    Are you sure, tim?

    That can't be right.

    The lead down to only six points?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeSmithson said:

    Have you tried parking in central Cambridge? It's just about impossible.

    TGOHF said:



    Millionaire ignores parking rules - they must be for the little people.


    http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/SLIDESHOW-Ed-Miliband-hits-campaign-trail-in-Cambridge-20130415160716.htm

    "Labour leader Ed Miliband hit the campaign trail in Cambridge ahead of county council elections - but blundered by leaving his car parked on double yellow lines.

    Meeting voters yesterday before giving a stump speech in Market Hill, Mr Miliband said he expected his party to make gains in the polls on May 2."

    "Mary Rose Noel, 53, from Chesterton, was less impressed with Mr Miliband’s response when she quizzed him on benefit reforms."

    Plenty of multi-storey space - or for you polar bear huggers -the park and ride.

    Please take any complaints about parking to the Lib Dem run council.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited April 2013
    anotherDave said:

    David_Evershed said:

    Neil said:

    @David_Evershed

    The amount of money UKIP suggested it was throwing at this election would pay for a lot of leaflet deliveries in a lot of target wards. They only have to take care to keep within spending limits!

    In rural Bucks the cost of paying for leaflets to be delivered is three times the cost of the leaflet. The election expense allowance is insufficient to cover the cost of one leaflet to be delivered across a division if delivery is paid for. Hand deliveries by volunteers do not count towards the expense allowance. Volunteer deliverers are a god send for local parties.
    The Speccy disputed whether leaflets persuaded swing voters. Do they make a noticeable difference?

    Leaflets do make a difference if they are delivered consistenly and provide a local update of what is happening about local issues at the local councils.

    A single leaflet a couple of weeks before an election might encourage existing supporters to get out and vote but is unlikely to change anyone's vote.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    "Millionaire ignores parking rules - they must be for the little people."

    I trust millionaire Ed Millionaire isn't driving with his wrecked wrist. That would be dangerous and highly irresponsible.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    "Millionaire ignores parking rules - they must be for the little people."

    I trust millionaire Ed Millionaire isn't driving with his wrecked wrist. That would be dangerous and highly irresponsible.

    Millionaire Miliband is surely responsible for where his driver parks - how could he have not noticed ???

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    If only there had been a jobsworth ready to photograph the incident and issue an on the spot fine.

    But is this the same Miliband who doesn't travel first class?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1377051/Ed-Miliband-happy-pose-council-estate-seen-travelling-class.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956
    So with the gold standard the Labour lead is reduced to six points.

    Bring it on
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited April 2013
    Guardian/ICM poll shows media frenzy has had little impact, but Tories would take 40% of vote if Iron Lady was still leader

    There is a Thatcher bounce to be had, but David Cameron is not having it, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll.

    Britain's longest-running polling series shows the Conservatives have clawed back just one point from last month to stand at 32%. That leaves them six points adrift of Labour, which slips back one to 38%. The Liberal Democrats stand still at 15%, while Ukip bounces up two to 9%.

    The combined total of the assorted other minor parties edges down one to 7%.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/15/margaret-thatcher-death-polling-cameron
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So with the gold standard the Labour lead is reduced to six points.

    Bring it on

    The shortest most fact based post I have ever seen from tim.

    I am going to turn my back on the figures, myself.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,984
    Afternoon all :)

    I don't quite see the point of cutting and pasting the whole Guardian story and then providing the link - either one or the other would have been fine and the Guardian isn't yet behind a paywall so we can all read it for ourselves.

    Solid 15% rating for the LDs (just in case the UKIP fans were getting excited) with the Labour lead at an unspectacular 6%. I'm sure Ed Milliband and Nick Clegg will happily take those numbers on GE day in 2015. That looks like a solid Labour majority on a swing of 7%.
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    tim said:

    @ZenPagan.




    Those dependent on unemployment benefit or incapacity benefit rose from 2 million to 6 million 1979-91.
    That doesnt include the impact of an ageing population

    Source for your claim please?

    And so what if it includes pensioners. Pension is not classed as a benefit so we have 5.3 million out of 9.6 million households are pensioners. That still leaves 4.3 million households. Even going by the 1.8 estimate of average household size (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7071611.stm)

    We get to a value of 7.74 million people (1.8 * 4.3 million) according to that BBC that is out of about 18 million total households. Looked at that way we have 1/4 of households are pensioners on benefits, 1/4 of the households are non pensioners dependent on benefit.

    This is what 13 years of a labour governement does, you do keep telling us how wonderful labour would be at sorting these problems after all. Before you start no I don't think Cameron is doing or likely to do any better.

    I lived through the pre maggie years I remember what a shit hole this country was and while I never voted for her as I hated her at the time I can look back and see that while painful she was the kick up the ass the country needed to start mending. Unfortunately we now have three wastrel parties in the commons hell bent on squandering the foundation she left

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    dr_spyn said:

    If only there had been a jobsworth ready to photograph the incident and issue an on the spot fine.

    But is this the same Miliband who doesn't travel first class?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1377051/Ed-Miliband-happy-pose-council-estate-seen-travelling-class.html

    Ed should have parked in a disabled bay. What with his wrist and all.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    Vikki Slade has been selected for the LDs in Mid Dorset to replace Annette Brooke.

    This is a seat the LDs hold with a majority of 269 votes over the Tories:

    http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/10356009.Broadstone_councillor_Vikki_Slade_chosen_in_fight_to_be_next_Mid_Dorset_and_Poole_MP/
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Cambridge Local rag doesn't seem to support Ed.

    http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/SLIDESHOW-Ed-Miliband-hits-campaign-trail-in-Cambridge-20130415160716.htm
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    "Parking for boarding is allowed - but Mr Miliband’s car was there for at least eight minutes.

    A Labour spokesman said: “If this did happen it was only for a very short period of time while passengers were picked up. Obviously, it is inappropriate for cars to be parked on double yellow lines and it will not happen in future.”"

    Well at least there is a Labour promise for the future - can they keep it ? :D
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    ICM UKPR

    Lab 360
    Con 228
    LD 36
    UKIP 0

    Lab Maj 70

    *CHORTLE*
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956
    So on the net ratings, Ed Miliband is doing worse than George Osborne.

    So George leading the welfare debate sees his ratings improve and the Tories improve.

    More George please.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The gold standard continues to give the LDs a pretty high rating and UKIP a rather low one in comparison to other pollsters. I don't think UKIP have reached 10% yet with ICM.
This discussion has been closed.