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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ten minisisters ready to tell TMay that they’ll resign unless there’s a deal within a fortnight
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Someone, perhaps all of them, are peddling a lot of horsecrap at the moment, since they cannot all be close to achieving their aims.< I don't think the plan hasn't gotten any further than that, and hoping it is not as bad as their own predictions say it will be. Other than the blind hope that the various EU nations will also blame the EU, but that seems a very unlikely circumstance - people are people, and they will blame the other party, and naturally resent making further concessions, even if it would secure a good outcome (and even that is not assured should the EU grant this concession) Depends on how many genuinely believe no deal Brexit must be avoided at all costs also are fooled/believe the false words of Cooper that it is not about stopping Brexit.
it's be better that than we no deal because people are still chasing unicorns.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1089638351718760450
On Holocaust Day.
https://twitter.com/SamSalah_/status/1089564008594710529
Worth watching for Anita Lasker-Wallfisch alone, God she's a tough old bird.
Have a pleasant nights rest
Good night folks
If the backstop goes (big if) then Dup are there. There are several Erg who do not want anything other than No Deal.
Now, ultimately, none of this may matter if the carnage continues. All bets will be off as to where some voters go. He campaigned strongly in 2017 and may be able to make up ground he loses when not in his favoured environment of day to day politics. But it's a worrying sign for him - especially as the magic might not work as well this time.
It must be appealing but there are a lot of 'ifs' in there
Frankly, the country could do a lot worse than a deal that got through thanks to dozens of Labour votes. That's a long way from the 3 on board now though.
Good night
Sound familiar?
"Did your father give the Nazi salute?"
"Probably.....it was the safest thing to do....."
If this two-week deadline is based on the time needed for legislation following a deal, and if there's no chance of a deal being passed by then, then the only way we can leave on schedule is No Deal, so those two probabilities should be the same.
That and More 4's documentary yesterday on Night Must Fall, the documentary made about the discovery of Bergen-Belsen, are must see's. The latter, though, is very grim viewing indeed.
All the rest is noise by MPs unwilling to take any effective action.
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-condemned-over-jewish-lobby-comment-1.447010
We get it MPs, this is not an easy choice given what you want, want the public contradictorily wants, and what can be achieved. But it's time to step up, you all asked to be given authority over the country after all, and the usual partisan lines from your parties won't cut it.
No Deal is what will happen under the legislation passed by Parliament. Unless something else happens to stop that legislation coming into effect. Once the two years under Article 50 are up, we're out. Unless..... And the signs of that unless happening are .... what, exactly?
I don't think there is ever a right mood for these things. But there are things we need to know about, even it is not pleasant to know or see such things.
I watched Shoah, the documentary years ago. It was on TV. I taped it and watched it in doses. It does not show any of the awful films. It is people talking and films of green fields where awful things happened. But the cumulative effect is appalling. A great documentary. I would not - could not, would be more accurate - see it again. But important for all of us to see and know and remember, before this does become history and the voices saying that it is all untrue and made up and exaggerated continue to to get louder and louder and nastier and nastier.
These survivors and their families have been very brave to speak as they have. It cannot have been at all easy for them. If they can show that level of courage then it is not much to ask of the rest of us to listen to them.
The ERG gambled that by rejecting May's Deal they would get No Deal hard Brexit, instead in my view it is more likely now they will end up with BINO or even Remain v Deal EUref2
* TMay is saying "stick with me, I got this"
* Cooper has an alternative plan, sort-of
* The Cabinet remainers want to back TMay until it's clear she's failed, then use the Cooper plan as Plan B
* TMay seems to be eternally stalling, so they want a point at which they can say she did or didn't fail, and if she did they're doing Plan B
* Their demand is for a new Meaningful Vote within 2 weeks (not for a particular result to that vote, which she obviously can't promise) at which point either The Deal has won or they're going to Unleash The Cooper
301 MPs voted for permanent Customs Union last summer, only 126 MPs voted for Umunna's amendment to stay in the EEA.
Juncker also said yesterday the EU would accept a renegotiation based on a permanent Customs Union but not one based on no backstop
Southsm Observer and TSE just want No Deal as they think it will lead to us rejoining the EU and the Euro, in reality there is no Commons majority for No Deal. As I said the only way realistically No Deal happens is for May to reject a Commons vote for say permanent Customs Union, see half her Ministers resign in the process and provoke the biggest constitutional crisis since the Abdication in a clash between the legislature and the executive. I do not think that will happen especially as it would make a successful VONC in her Government then become likely
Before the referendum, many (most?) Leavers were realistic about the Irish border problem (and about general business concerns) and acknowledged the need for a customs union. (What was anathema to many of them was the political union, not the economic union.) It's only since the referendum that a lot of Brexiters have become more unrealistic.
I still don't believe all the students are going to be switching to Lib Dems though.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1089691564283183105?s=21
On the one hand that shows serious support this early, making her a pretty formidable contender.
On the other hand that's 20,000 people who got to experience first-hand that she isn't very good.