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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : October 24th 2013

SystemSystem Posts: 12,250
edited October 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : October 24th 2013

Loughborough, Hastings on Charnwood (Lab Defence) and Shepshed West (Con Defence)
Last Local Election (2011): Con 33, Lab 16, BNP 1, Lib Dem 1, Ind 1 (Con overall majority of 14)
Loughborough, Hastings
Result of last election (2011): (emboldened denotes elected)
Labour 1,163, 1,104
Conservative 612, 492
Candidates duly nominated:

Read the full story here


Comments

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Owen Jones vs Peter Hitchens on Question Time should be mildly exciting.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,758
    Newspaper groups are taking the Government to court in a bid to rule the Royal Charter on press regulation illegal.

    Shameful
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is it correct that the SNP's majority in the Scottish Parliament will be down to one seat if they lose Dunfermline tonight?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited October 2013
    AndyJS said:

    Is it correct that the SNP's majority in the Scottish Parliament will be down to one seat if they lose Dunfermline tonight?

    Yes.

    Scottish National Party 65 MSPs
    Scottish Labour Party 37 MSPs
    Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 15 MSPs
    Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 MSPs
    Scottish Green Party 2 MSPs
    Independents 3 MSPs
    Presiding Officer 1 MSP
    Vacant (Dunfermline) 1

    Total 129 MSPs

    Government Majority 2
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,061
    Thanks, Mr. Hayfield.

    Mr. Owls, are you asserting that the press or the politicians are shameful?

    I may've mentioned this before, but there's an off-chance that the Indian Grand Prix (which could be the last race there anyway) may be cancelled.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/24651627
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,475
    bigjohnowls said:

    Newspaper groups are taking the Government to court in a bid to rule the Royal Charter on press regulation illegal.

    Shameful

    As I understand it they're not asking for such a ruling. They're judicially reviewing the Government's decision to reject the press's proposal. If they win the government would have to go and consider it properly.

    Judicial review of governmental decisions has been well-established; it's a mechanism whereby we can ensure that the government itself complies with the law and does not make arbitrary decisions. There's nothing shameful about it. What is shameful is governments acting arbitrarily or considering themselves above the law.

  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Off topic:

    Dislike America? Wish to make a pointless statement of your disapproval of the Great Satan?

    This is for you, you might even win a prize.

    http://www.dw-usa.com/
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Cyclefree said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Newspaper groups are taking the Government to court in a bid to rule the Royal Charter on press regulation illegal.

    Shameful

    As I understand it they're not asking for such a ruling. They're judicially reviewing the Government's decision to reject the press's proposal. If they win the government would have to go and consider it properly.

    Judicial review of governmental decisions has been well-established; it's a mechanism whereby we can ensure that the government itself complies with the law and does not make arbitrary decisions. There's nothing shameful about it. What is shameful is governments acting arbitrarily or considering themselves above the law.

    Thanks for that thought provoking comment.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    Tom Gordon ‏@ScottishPol ora
    Just met Lab bod in #dunfermline. Seemed little unnerved FM campaigning here this eve. Suggests SNP think they're in with a shout

    Political Editor of Scottish Mail tweets that it's "Closer than it should be." in Dunfermline
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    edited October 2013
    Deleted (misunderstood earlier post)
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Tom Gordon ‏@ScottishPol ora
    Just met Lab bod in #dunfermline. Seemed little unnerved FM campaigning here this eve. Suggests SNP think they're in with a shout

    Political Editor of Scottish Mail tweets that it's "Closer than it should be." in Dunfermline

    Sorry if this has already been asked, when will the Dunfermline result be announced?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @saddened, they count overnight. It depends on how slow they are, if they lose some ballot boxes and if they need a recount
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,315
    Thanks to Harry for collating all the info for these threads!
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    @saddened, they count overnight. It depends on how slow they are, if they lose some ballot boxes and if they need a recount

    Thanks, will wake up to the result.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AndyJS said:

    Is it correct that the SNP's majority in the Scottish Parliament will be down to one seat if they lose Dunfermline tonight?

    Officially but you cant see the MSPs who left over NATO voting against much of their programme so it's a more comfortable margin than that.

    If Labour actually lost Dunfermline it would be one of the most abject performances in by-elections in recent times.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,315
    So are there two Dunfermline elections tonight? Council and Holyrood?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited October 2013
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    So are there two Dunfermline elections tonight? Council and Holyrood?

    Correct.

    Cara Hilton is actually the 2nd LAB councillor in the same ward as the one who died, Cllr Mike Rumney, so if she wins the Scottish Patliament by-election tonight there will be another council by-election in that ward.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    One of the Fife Cllrs became list MSP when John Park resigned last year and she stayed on the council
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    So are there two Dunfermline elections tonight? Council and Holyrood?

    Correct.

    Cara Hilton is actually the 2nd LAB councillor in the same ward as the one who died, so if she wins tonight there will be another council by-election in that ward.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    One of the Fife Cllrs became list MSP when John Park resigned last year and she stayed on the council

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    So are there two Dunfermline elections tonight? Council and Holyrood?

    Correct.

    Cara Hilton is actually the 2nd LAB councillor in the same ward as the one who died, so if she wins tonight there will be another council by-election in that ward.
    It would be her choice, but most councillors elected to the SP subsequently resign their council seat.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Low turnout in Hamilton South apparently.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,315
    Thanks I got a little confused :)
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    tim said:

    Don't know if anyone has watched Educating Yorkshire

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/24/educating-yorkshire-channel-4-stammer


    Yes. A real tear jerker.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    @Stuart

    IIRC most Cllrs elected in 2011 stayed on but it was a different scenario as local elections were only 1 year away. I don't remember many cases of MSP-Cllrs in 2007. I don't have a clue on 1999 and 2003.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    tim said:

    Don't know if anyone has watched Educating Yorkshire

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/24/educating-yorkshire-channel-4-stammer


    Wonder why we didn't find out - unless I missed it - why he lost his prefect's jumper. Doesn't say in the article either. Editorial/narrative perhaps.

    Well done Sunil btw. Good news!

    Sad news http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/consumer/article3903258.ece (£)
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    According to BBC: Dunfermline count begins 10:45 and Result between 01:00 - 01:30.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Sadly can't come to Dirty dicks, frustratingly I will be in London a few days after that. Would have been fascinating
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,315
    Carola said:

    tim said:

    Don't know if anyone has watched Educating Yorkshire

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/24/educating-yorkshire-channel-4-stammer


    Wonder why we didn't find out - unless I missed it - why he lost his prefect's jumper. Doesn't say in the article either. Editorial/narrative perhaps.

    Well done Sunil btw. Good news!

    Sad news http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/consumer/article3903258.ece (£)
    Thanks Carola!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Owen Jones roundly applauded.

    Could only happen in Liverpool.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    Count started

    Susan Ruddick
    ‏@SueRuddick

    And the count begins #dunfermline

    pic.twitter.com/01FIJmq4kU
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    40-45% turnout suggested
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,758
    On the West Sussex count, would expect the Tories to win it. Ex district council leader in safe seat. Only opposition to local redevelopment will see her lose it.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    AveryLP said:

    Owen Jones roundly applauded.

    Could only happen in Liverpool.

    Empathy. Rather like most of his audience he hasn't got a job.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I swear that QT gets more boring and inane every time I look at it and to cap it they've got a raving red trotskyite on the panel.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Is that tim?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    40-45% turnout suggested


    Pretty dire. SNP voters abstaining in Walker protest? Or Labour voters unmotivated to get off sofas? Or both?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    GeoffM said:

    AveryLP said:

    Owen Jones roundly applauded.

    Could only happen in Liverpool.

    Empathy. Rather like most of his audience he hasn't got a job.
    I thought the BBC were bank rolling him?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,311
    MikeK said:

    I swear that QT gets more boring and inane every time I look at it and to cap it they've got a raving red trotskyite on the panel.

    Well, there's certainly only one person on the panel that's been a Trotskyist International Socialist.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    SimonStClare said:

    GeoffM said:

    AveryLP said:

    Owen Jones roundly applauded.

    Could only happen in Liverpool.

    Empathy. Rather like most of his audience he hasn't got a job.
    I thought the BBC were bank rolling him?
    Yes, the taxpayer is bankrolling him. Rather like most of Liverpool.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Marine Le Pen on Newsnight - been in touch with Farage several times, but for reasons that escape her he appears to have a few problems with her party,....No contact with the Conservatives.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2013
    As a big Poirot fan, I've often wondered where his 1930s apartment block in London was situated, (known as Whitehaven Mansions in the series). Imagine my surprise to discover the other day that it's actually in Charterhouse Square which is just next to the Barbican tube station. The block is called Florin Court in real life:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florin_Court

    http://www.poirot.us/mansions.php

    http://poirotchronology.blogspot.co.uk/p/apartment.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,301
    So was there a resolution in Grangemouth? Did INEOS and Unite come to an agreement to reopen the chemical plant?
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 665
    New Thread
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    MaxPB said:

    So was there a resolution in Grangemouth? Did INEOS and Unite come to an agreement to reopen the chemical plant?

    Don't know yer - Unite caved, but don't know if it's too late - also tomorrow INEOS report on the unite official that kicked all this off....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    That was a short thread!
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    AndyJS said:

    That was a short thread!

    Normally I wouldn't be bothered either way, but it would have been an idea to keep the local election thread going a bit longer in the hope of some results on here. The other result is hours away!

This discussion has been closed.