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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn would be taking a huge gamble going into an election so out of step with LAB voters on Brexit
Yesterday in what was billed as his “big Brexit speech” LAB leader Corbyn called for a general election should TMay lose fail to win backing for her Brexit deal in the vote next week. But he’s been far more reluctant to allow Labour to give any backing to the increasing clamours for a specific referendum on the deal.
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And second too.
(Let's see if I can make it a threesome.)
The current line is looking precarious but it probably only has to last another week or two, and if he's lucky he can let "parliament" make the running.
That said, judging by my twitters there is some sign it's starting to dawn on young left-wingers that Corbyn's 1970s left-wingery isn't just a more defiant version of modern left-wingery, and he doesn't exactly believe in what they do.
When he did come to address it he remained clear that he wanted to implement the vote but with a Customs Union and a policy of pre-committing the UK to implement whatever nonsense the EU comes up with whatever its effect on international competitiveness, a policy so absolutely ridiculous the government adopted it last night. The rest was we would have done it better and, slightly more fantastically, we still can given the unlimited amounts of time available.
He very plainly has no interest in the detail of Brexit at all but he will never find a Tory policy that he likes or will vote for.
Neither government, nor opposition are in the least bit convincing at the moment.
So, morning all, and I was saying ...
Did not see TW last night. Looking forward to catching it today.
I rate Andrew Neil as a broadcaster but if OJ roughed him up a little, well good because he can be quite overbearing at times and overly fond of his 'man of the world' persona. Jones is effective. His 'angry teenager' vibe irritates the old folk, but what he comes out with is often acute and usually worth hearing.
Taki is a horrible old geezer. Racist, misogynist, classist, you name it. Really ought not to be given a weekly column in anything, let alone the Spectator.
Liddle? His stuff is racist, no question. And his misogyny is far worse than Taki's. Quite disgraceful attitude towards women. And so mean-spirited his articles are, so awfully mean-spirited. But they are often very funny. I enjoy reading him. The guy has talent.
Plus my sarcococca confusa, which despite sounding like some sort of STD, is in fact one of the glories of nature. Its English name is Christmas box, it is evergreen, needs minimal care and, at this time of year, has the most highly vanilla scented white flowers, a delightful and strong scent which is so so welcome at this dismal time of year. Every front garden should have one.
Once that shopping is done - see, I am doing my bit for the economy - I need to stock up on coal, then take down the crib - or Neapolitan presepe, a work of art by comparison to the pathetic cribs sold in this heathen country.
January - and these particular two weeks - are a miserable time of year. Both my parents died around this time and various other aunts and relatives so when I am not going to remembrance Masses I do stuff that looks forward to spring and light and joy.
And yesterday I got asked to pitch for a new and interesting piece of work. So despite the gloomy time of year and B*****, I am in quite a good mood and, were you to offer me a coffee with chocolate on top, I would cheerfully accept. No point getting aerated by such things, eh!
(I draw the line at pineapple on pizza - Hawaian pizza indeed, the very idea. Almost as bad as a chocolate panettone.)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46827981
Did David Cameron have any other brilliant wheezes that might not necessarily pass the test of time?
https://www.theguardian.com/tone/letters
Is there some genuine democratic imperative for such a long debate (I can't see many people being persuaded to change their minds by argument alone) or is it simply that every MP wants his or her 10 minutes to spout off about it so that they can say "I took part in that historic debate"?
Restrict the contributions to substantive stuff like Grieve's amendment that actually does something.
To be fair, both these madcap ideas came from other leading Tories. Cameron didn't seem to ever understand what Lansley was up to.
Cameron only had one brilliant idea himself. One which Osborne defined as "crazy".
And we are facing the resulting chaos in a couple of months time.
Even if UC created no further hardship at all, it would still serve as a reminder of those living on the bread line.
I decided that was more important than worrying that they all say the same thing over and over again.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-meaningful-vote-brexit
It's quite detailed and a bit long, but a must-read, I think.
As regards Labour voters, yes they are overwhelmingly remain. But so long as Labour are softer on Brexit than the Tories, it's hard to see why those votes would move en masse in a pre-Brexit GE. And if the GE is post-Brexit, those who voted Labour purely for pro-Remain reasons are probably lost anyway.
Also, most of the seats that Labour need to win in order to get into government are in Leave areas. What they do not want to do is fail in that task whilst racking up even bigger majorities in liberal urban Remainia.
If there were a GE, the two main parties would be in the curious position that, in an election which is all about Brexit, neither would have a coherent Brexit policy and neither would be able to unite around a manifesto on the subject.
I don't see it happening in the near future.
Oh, and Good Morning, one of my gym mornings, so a late log-in here!
This amendment accepts the deal on the condition the Government maintains standards in a number of areas, including employment, environmental protection and health and safety.
But that's a ballsy move. It's not a Mrs May move.
I assume you mean "what if TMay tables a motion in the Commons calling for one", which would be an absolutely mad thing for her to do, given the divisions within her own Party, and to which the answer would be some kind of revolt.
Perhaps it depends what 'near future' means. I suppose at the moment that's about the next 12-24 hours, but in some time scales 29 March is the near future, and if we have then left the EU, JC has every reason to work towards an election as he will have achieved his intention of leaving without having to take responsibility for it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Araucaria_araucana#Description
While continually fluffing the issue may work (for a time) in England, it won't here.
Leonard, the SLab leader, given a standard BBC Scotland kid glove interview, was unable to give any coherent answer when asked if Labour would have a position on Brexit in the general election he had just said was necessary to break the Brexit deadlock. If I wasn't invested in the situation, I'd think it tragic that SLab now have a fixed tradition of electing a leader measurably worse than their predecessor. He's worse than Iain Gray ffs!
‘Brought to Jesus’: the evangelical grip on the Trump administration
The influence of evangelical Christianity is likely to become an important question as Trump finds himself dependent on them for political survival'
There is apparently a film which is becoming popular, especially in the Bible Belt,The Trump Prophecy, a religious film screened in 1,200 cinemas around the country in October, depicting a retired firefighter who claims to have heard God’s voice, saying: “I’ve chosen this man, Donald Trump, for such a time as this.”
Some leading evangelicals see Trump as a latterday King Cyrus, the sixth-century BC Persian emperor who liberated the Jews from Babylonian captivity.
Takes 'praying together' to a whole new level.
What is not credible is calling for a general election to settle the matter, in the absence of any such policy.
That feels right to me. Hope not, since I want a Labour government with some appetite for change, but it does feel right.
Question is, is it the man or is it the agenda? If it's the man, great, because then the answer is obvious.
But if it's the Left agenda that has a Ceiling too low to win power, I would find that dispiriting.
Still, how did someone not notice that people being paid on a weekly basis were going to have issues with a system that looked at their pay on a calendar month basis? It's not that hard to annualise the calculations.
It's not good enough for Rudd to talk about running another pilot when there are so many well-known problems with the system as it exists now for the large number of people already using it.
I can't help but look at it in tandem with the extreme incompetence of the Home Office in relation to immigration and asylum cases, or Student Finance England, and conclude that arbitrary incompetence is a deliberate policy to discourage people from accessing the support policy entitles them to.
I'm sure the Home Office are hoping that several tens of thousands of EU citizens resident in the UK will decide that the settled status process is too much trouble to bother with and leave the country by preference.
Still a long way off enough to win the vote...
Contrary to your interpretation yesterday.
Edit: I don't point that latter out to be snitty!!
However even May's deal s not definitive since the future relationship is yet to be negotiated.
which is it?
Whats the point of exending it unless the policy changes?
UC bundling it all together into a single cash payment makes it less likely to be spent on its intended purpose.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-to-be-delayed-beyond-march-29-cabinet-ministers-reveal-a4036326.html
I mean it sounds bonkers. It all sounds bonkers. The EU wouldn't accept a delay just to let a handful more Cons rebels fall into line, and TMay would surely not think that an extra month or three would be enough to convince them. So that means GE or referendum. Which also sounds bonkers.
Yes they will no they won't. This is the news report. Updated just now.
But wtf is all this GE nonsense? The Country doesn't want a GE. It wants a resolution to Brexit, and views on how to do so cross party-lines.
On the single most significant political issue of the century, Corbyn has been a bystander, an irrelevance. Nobody is listening to him.
Still, if if makes MPs feel happier about agreeing the deal, then great.
I'd be interested for Labour posters' views.
Then the bill to implement the WA comes forward, and the bill makes quite clear they have no such power at all, and that the text of the WA is entirely unchanged.
I'm sure her party would just quietly let it slide that she won the MV by befuddling her more gullible colleagues with some legal legerdemain.
It's yet more evidence that May's time window for thinking about the consequence of her actions is simply "will it help me survive the next 24 hours?"
Too many politicians see brexit as an opportunity to further their own agendas. They don't give a d*mn about brexit