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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the Betfair exchange its now a 69% chance the the UK WON’T exit the EU at the end of March

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Yellow_Submarine

I've let my long term betting position on us leaving on time ride largely because I've learned to bet cou ter to my own policy preferences on an issue. But I'm fairly sure now I've let the pendulum swing too far. The biggest change of the last few days is very senior Labour figures saying the record that A50 should and/or will be extended. I think we are begining to see the first contours of Labour's offer to May re the WA. If you want us to help pass it then we need an extension of a few months to get our dynamic alignment and CU concerns into the treaty text.

Of course the situation is so volatile we may not get to the " Groko " stage and of course by countencing Groko it will pressure Tory rebels to back the WA first time round. But given the huge volume of legislation needed to meet 29/3 and EP consent the timetable is begining to look quite tight.

There are of course other less noble reasons to ralky around a brief extension. Augustian Brexit is easier to sell to leave voters than a full u turn. Many Remain advocates will hope any delay, any desacralising if the exit date, will be a gateway drug. Meanwhile Labour's unicorns also clearly need more time than 8s left. So until those unicorns are butchered they now have an incentive to talk up delay. Expect talk of a 6 to 7 week extension just short of the EP elections to mount.

Recidivist

Second - like the rate of the country if we go ahead with Brexit.

I am particularly disgruntled this evening as I've finally forced myself to read this guidance, given that I've now reached the stage of having to start planning and spending time and money in anticipation of a no deal Brexit.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/appointing-nominated-persons-to-your-business-if-theres-no-brexit-deal/appointing-nominated-persons-to-your-business-if-theres-no-brexit-deal?fbclid=IwAR0qiHMYRGzHYms_UOFWpoUe3U3KCVBgTva4ru8V-2rDeyvwmEBpuEEVz3g

And I still haven't heard a single convincing argument for why the whole sorry mess is a good idea.