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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a dramatic day in the Commons punters on Betfair make it
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a dramatic day in the Commons punters on Betfair make it a 64% chance that the UK will NOT leave EU by March 29th
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Looking more likely tonight.
Apparently even Jezza was forced to applaud.
Could have a new finance bill then...
Nigel Farage's Dad is a member of one of London's finest and oldest military clubs. And he was today at that club chatting about the bloody mess his son has made of this country.
Can things get any weirder ?
Yes. They probably can.
In unrelated news I have been sent an invitation by the Jewish Labour Movement (I am neither Jewish nor a Labour Party member) to hear Jess Phillips MP speak next week at one of their events which takes place at a location near me. I am quite tempted. I rather like Ms Phillips and there might be quite a lot for her to say.
Deal's not possible.
New deal's not possible.
No deal's not possible.
Revocation's not possible.
Call an election and make something possible.
For me, the only coherent Brexit is one where Britain decides to stop pretending to play a major part in world affairs in order to preserve cultural and demographic stability. We would become a neutral state in the vein of Sweden or Switzerland. @AlastairMeeks did a thread header months or years ago setting this out. We would sell the aircraft carriers, cut the defence budget and immigration and keep ourselves to ourselves.
There has always been a large vote for an isolationist policy, but it has been underrepresented in Parliament as few politicians want to diminish themselves. The idea that Brexit will make us rich in the short term is ludicrous. The only way you can argue there is upside is if we become Singapore on steroids, a view which can only be supported with a profound ignorance of the balance of opinion in the country at large. The most likely outcome is that it makes little medium-term difference, as technological and demographic change will be more important, and Brexiteers must accept short-term downside.
I don’t think we’re going to leave.
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1082719135509942273
Temporary government of national unity, remember you heard it here first.
In any case the idea is clear enough, regardless of its organisational antecedents.
There's no vote for that either as far as I can see. Certainly at the moment.
Major lacked the numbers to get Maastricht through intact so eventually made it a confidence issue forcing his MPs to back him. May can't do that due to the FTPA. If it wasn't for the FTPA May could have under our prior constitution have made the passing of her deal a matter of confidence forcing her backbenchers hands.
https://twitter.com/mikestuchbery_/status/1082714484249161728?s=21
You're right in more ways than one, the house has to vote for it, making the house's vote moot unless there is a more well hung Parliament.
Is attractive to many Labour MPs, stop Corbyn and Brexit.
Extraordinary the change in the Mail’s editorial line under Greig. Completely different paper nowadays.
Is temporary in nature, they revoke or extend Article 50, then put down the legislation for another referendum.
Isn't what I'd do but I think that's where we're headed.
When the history on Brexit is written the CJEU decision on revocation of Article 50 will be seen as a gamechanger one way or the other.
If we Leave with No Deal and No Deal is as bad as feared there'll be a retribution for MPs that didn't try and halt it.
Welp, there go my mentions.
EDIT: now 2.98
It will be worth the possible delay to Brexit for the 35 seat majority.
If it would be arranged for May 2nd, all the better.
Wouldn't pretty much all the MPs involved be ending their political careers?
We're not living in the early 20th century with Liberal Unionist MPs, etc. The party system is too much stronger.
I think Rudd would be best placed to be PM. I would expect the likes of Cooper and Sir Keir to be ministerial appointments to any such government.
It can't be said too often: the choice is revoke Article 50 (possibly after a referendum), the EU's deal, or no deal. MPs are very keen to tell us what they don't want. Perhaps they should start turning their minds - if they have any - towards which of the three possibilities they do want.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEw2pyejWzw
~300 backing revoke (after a referendum) - almost all on opposition benches
~215 backing deal - almost all on government benches
~115 backing no deal - almost all on government benches
Then where do we go from here? MPs don't collectively want anything and the biggest support has the least support in the government.
It’s May’s deal or a deal vs Remain referendum.
If the latter, then after an A50 extension.
If the Lib Dems got 12 defections from the Tories that would more than double their number, take them into the 20s giving them some momentum, deprive the Tories of their majority etc
The defectors would have to hope any personal vote combined with the Lib Dems party machinery (what there is of it) is enough to save them.
On this occasion I think punters are calling it right, particularly with potential if unlikely extensions. Kudos to the continuity remainers though, they have played a masterclass. Yes, but Brexit is Brexit. The remainer Tories will only have the chance to stop no deal once in their careers, and if they mean what they say they could not possibly stand by and let it happen when torching their own careers could stop it. Otherwise they don't actually mind no deal, not enough to risk their careers anyway.
It's much more likely than Labour MPs seeing this through and taking the hit, because you need dozens of them to do that, and far fewer Tory MPs are needed to make that career sacrifice.
Utter crap apparently.
Maybe, just maybe, out of the chaos something will emerge, although I'm blowed if I can see how. But if not, we leave with no deal. I don't think the betting markets - and more importantly the financial markets - have fully priced in this risk.
But if Brexit isn’t fatal to the European Union, we might find that it is fatal to the Union with Scotland. The SNP have already said that in the event that Britain votes to leave but Scotland votes to remain in the EU, they will press for another Scottish independence referendum. And the opinion polls show consistently that the Scottish people are more likely to be in favour of EU membership than the people of England and Wales.
If the people of Scotland are forced to choose between the United Kingdom and the European Union we do not know what the result would be.
N O T H I N G H A S C H A N G E D
Why? I refuse to be quiet. I expect others to follow my lead
The Sun tomorrow.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8150405/cabinet-brexit-chaos-theresa-may-michael-gove/
Unless the Universe plans to fold itself up into 13 dimensional space and then vanish in a puff of smoke on the 28th March.
https://goo.gl/images/b6Shfg
If they lose both the die-hard remainers and the die-hard leavers then that leaves a massive proportion of the population who won't vote for them.