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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With just five days to go the PB/Alastair Meeks predictions for 2019
Rarely has British politics faced such binary questions: Remain or Leave? Deal or no deal? Referendum or no referendum? What kind of a fool is going to make predictions about the coming year? Let me raise my hand.
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1 seems absolutely certain, unless there is a major black swan event to distract us
Disagree with 2 and 3.
Agree with 4
Have no idea about 5
Both May and Corbyn have shown amazing staying power against forces intra and extra their parties, and I think it's reasonable to assume that if they do leave, it will be at a time of their choosing. One might go (and May seems likeliest); both seems unlikely IMO. So 6 seems wrong to me.
British politics will look similar, if only because British Politics is in a period of massive upheaval where the unexpected becomes expected. If you were to tell me that there would be PM Farage next year, I'd be surprised. He's not in a position to be PM, but given what's happened recently, can I really rule it out ... ?
The real surprise would be if British politics is stable next year, where the biggest newsworthy political event is some politician having an affair.
Well done for being brave and putting them forward. The only one i disagree with is the 2nd Ref. I think it would be less damaging not to have a referendum because it removes a bitter and highly divisive campaign. The entrenched opinions exist anyway
Alastair, dare I ask you for a supplementary on how you think the Lib Dems will have fared by this time next year?
FWIW....I've already squirrelled away some cash and meds for my dog, and food, and I'm no way as gloomy as your outlook....
In that case, goodnight everyone
FWIW, I think it about 50/50.
“Whatever happens, large groups of people are going to be appalled by what happens in the coming year....”
That is a near 100% certainty.... I’m already dismayed at the political prospects for next year.
But I'm not sure I can see as much giving as that. what's the move that breaks the stalemate? T Mays deal is defeated, then what? It's a heck of a jump from there to the predictions above. Parliament can block spending on no-deal prep, but can they actually prevent us leaving without a deal?
If you score 5 or more that will be impressive.
Things are getting a little weird...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/26/us-stock-markets-post-christmas-sp-500-dow-nasdaq
Thanks to the Grieve amendment both Norway Plus and EUref2 will likely be voted on by the Commons as well as the Deal and if the first two are voted down then Deal is more likely to pass as the only viable alternative to No Deal
I have a few tins of beans and a stiff upper lip.
Are we not entertained?
I honestly don't think you are going to repeat this year's successes with that lot. I'm expecting a much tamer year tbh; the opposite outcome for most of your points:
- May's Deal to pass at the 2nd or 3rd attempt in February, against a backdrop of No Deal panic.
- The UK to leave on the 29th March.
- May to step down around Easter.
- New Tory leader in the summer.
- No GE in 2019
- Jezza to soldier on.
And me to continue with my terrible inability to make accurate predictions.
PS If he's anything like ours he'll forget where he's buried it!
1 and 7 could be regarded as bankers in one horse race!
"I think the predictions of interminable disputes about the UKs relationship with Europe is overdone and it is more likely that the issue will drop down the political agenda as it did for most of the period from 1980 until the 2010-15 parliament.
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict how I think events will develop. I expect
i May will not be able to put together a deal acceptable to both parliament and the EU, it's quite likely that we will get to January next year without a deal ready to put to parliament;
ii At some point between now and February, probably sooner rather than later, an atmopsohere of panic will develop, supermarkets will begin to warn of food shortages, there will be pressure on sterling and business groups will warn of immediate threats to jobs and essential supplies,
iii It will become clear that the country is about to rush headlong over a cliff with incalculable consequences, this will lead to immense pressure on MPs to take emergency action, the only option open to them will be to seek terms from the EU to suspend the widrawal process to allow another referendum to take place,
iv Another referendum will produce a majority for remain significantly larger than the majority for leave in the first one,
v In future leavers will still be a political force, rather as former communists are a political force in Eastern Europe, but it will be clear that their ideas are discredited and cannot be implemented in the way they suggest. They will not get near to government again for the foreseeable future.
So I'm actually quite optimistic that we can put the disasters of the past few years behind us. It will take time but it can be done."
To predict which they will jump when faced with decisions which will determine in rather unpredictable fashion the future of both the country and their careers is not exactly a simple matter.
Its contemplation has apparently already driven Sean bonkers, so I’m temporarily abandoning the effort, for the sake of my sanity.
1) Brexit will still be a big issue.
2) Negative growth for at least one quarter in 2019.
3) The May deal will not pass.
4) A deal will pass, with a proviso that there will be a referendum on it.
5) We won't leave in March but may do later.
6) There will be a general election this year.
We're going to be in the position where May - whose party insists no referendum- will call one over their heads. And Corbyn - whose party insists on one - will be arguing against it. Which ultimately will be the downfall of both.
3. A fresh referendum may not be the one we expect nor at the time we expect. For example, a post revocation referendum may simply seek to strike out the result of the 2016 referendum, without a formal Remain counter instruction to fulfil (given that Remain would be delivered by revocation on day 1).
6. If you suggest a single issue government as a likely route out, you need to acknowledge that it is not going to readily morph into a fully functioning, 3 year government. How and to whom it cedes, or seeks to broaden, power becomes the central consideration in deciding the next election date and, at that point, 2022 is no longer favourite.
Given this, the discussion sections under 5 and 6, though not actually the headline predictions themselves, seem mutually incompatible.
No other deal will be promoted by the government.
Which means we default to WTO Deal, also known as managed No Deal (In their own interests the EU will have to cooperate to make it a managed deal).
This will mean a short postponement of Leaving from end March to end May.
It will also be the end of May as her Cabinet disintegrates.
After further falls the US market will eventually recover to be above the current level and the UK market will continue to drift down.
Corbyn doesn't really have to expose himself either way. If the initiative comes from SNP/LD/Lab-Remain-MPs, he can let his MPs have a free vote and stick to denouncing the government's terrible deal that has let down leavers and remainers alike. Remainers are narked off with him for failing to take a lead but what they really care about is the outcome; If they get their referendum, it's hard to see them holding an enduring grudge. (If this is tried and fails because Corbyn opposes they'll hate him forever, though...)
For May it's harder - she'd take some heat for letting a referendum happen, even if she had a good argument that parliament forced her into it. If her deal wins, she's vindicated and the Leavers aren't too mad, but if Remain wins, a significant chunk of her party will hate her forever. But the same dynamics that have kept her in place until now could still hold: There's a chunk of the membership that's angry and bonkers. What's worse, if they just lost a referendum, they're out-of-step with the majority of the voters, and obsessing over something that the voters are royally sick of. Meanwhile the majority of MPs aren't angry or bonkers, they just want to keep their jobs. The only way to make sure the membership don't inflict a Tory Jeremy Corbyn on them is to let Theresa May stay for as long as she will deign to serve, which if Corbyn's health permits is at least until 2027, and maybe 2032.
My feeling is that, barring the most recalcitrant MP's on either end of the spectrum, there will be little real appetite when it comes to the crunch for taking one of the other, far more complicated and fraught, routes out of the mess.
And when we do leave I expect the subject of Brexit to become almost taboo with normal voters such is the bitterness and angst the process has created.
@EuropeElects
Dec 23
UK, Opinium poll:
LAB-S&D: 39%
CON-ECR: 39% (+1)
LDEM-ALDE: 6% (-2)
UKIP-EFDD: 6%
GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
SNP-G/EFA: 4%
PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)
+/- 13–14 Dec. '18
Field work: 18/12/18 – 20/12/18
Sample size: 1,139
➤ http://europeelects.eu/uk"
2017 GE
Parties supporting Brexit: 84%
Parties supporting Remain: 14%
The inevitable and overdue Brexit crisis will hit early next year. No fudge is available. There are no unicorns. No sunlit uplands. The Brexit contradictions must and will be resolved and it will take a crisis to do so .
No Deal is possible but that will just aggravate the crisis.
A second referendum is tricky but possible. It may not resolve Brexit.
I predict we will sign the Withdrawal Agreement next year, because the EU won't talk to us otherwise. There is no other reliable way out of the crisis.
Will we sign it before 29th March, and if not, will it be a period of No Deal or a temporary extension to A50? I have no idea.
Eventually I think we will most likely end up in the Vassal State, accepting EU rules but having no say over them, and trying to tag onto EU third country arrangements. I don't think that will be resolved by the end of next year however. More likely a slow burn of cliff edges will lead us there. In the meantime Remainers will rightly blame Leavers for putting us into this mess, while Leavers will deny all responsibility and deflect blame onto useful "elites" for the failure of their project.
Incidentally quite the jump from "350 million a week for the NHS" to "Stop the Brexit betrayal" on the side of a bus
Go look at the effing numbers and look for big trends if you want to come here with your polling analysis.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
BMG looks like the outlier to me according to your link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xr9-CkZZRk
https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-language-of-brexit-9781350047976/
I see some prospect of a more positive approach in the next referendum* while Leave goes more negative. People are becoming increasingly aware of what we are losing by Leaving, and the putative benefits of Brexit are increasingly looking like rather thin gruel.
*I think that the WA will probably pass, but not at the first attempt, so a #peoplesvote for Rejoin may well occur during the WA. Leavers should be happy with that, as we will have Brexited, before we implement the Rejoin result.
Should a referendum be proposed by May to save her deal (and I've said that she will have to to save her deal and her job) what does Corbyn do? If he supports he pisses off the Labour Brexit voters. If he opposes he pisses off Labour remain voters. Labour MPs - already operating autonomously and cross party taking the WhatsApp whip - will be given a free vote
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-Relations/China-uses-Taiwan-as-R-D-lab-to-disrupt-democracies
At present, China has less ability to affect American politics than Russia, but by using Taiwan as a propaganda laboratory that could soon change, said Yi-Suo Tzeng, acting director of the Cyber Warfare and Information Security division at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
"As they accumulate knowledge and test their algorithms, I think within two years we will probably see China having the capability to use cybertools to intervene in the U.S. election," Tzeng told the Nikkei Asian Review. Although he described Beijing's current approach to exercising political influence in the U.S. as "old-school," Tzeng said Beijing is improving quickly....
Which is wrong.
If MPs are put in the position of having to select a form of Brexit they will chose May's deal instead of no deal. Forget no deal, they will vote for May's deal if there is no other choice.
And there is another choice - rescind Article 50. Politically heinous but legally simple, and because it's simple that will sustain MPs as the clock runs down. As no deal planning picks up speed and demonstrates to all but the most obdurate that leaving makes them personally worse off, I expect the "nobody voted to be worse off" argument to be used a lot. Because bar a few well of ideological crazies nobody voted to be worse off. I've spoken to poor leave voters here in Stockton and wanting even less than the meagre scraps they have now is not what they expect from Brexit even if the reverse is true.
Final point. MPs like being MPs. But most have a clear and massive sense of responsibility. They will not voluntarily screw over constituents as pawns to keep their jobs.
Revoking A50 needs to be initiated by the government, and a government needs a PM, yet very clearly it cannot be May or Corbyn, and there isn't time to find a new Tory leader.
The alternative to a minor party figure (and Lucas is another possibility) would be a respected elder statesman who won't be contesting for future PM like Clarke or Grieve. But it could still be difficult for Labour MPs to serve a 'Conservative' PM, even for a few weeks. Far easier to put someone in who doesn't stand a prayer of being elected PM in the election
If May were indeed serious about taking us to no deal if her deal is rejected (personally I don't think she is), and we are almost out of time, the above is the only way out for the majority of MPs who won't inflict no deal on the country.
We joined for good reasons in 1975, though we have forgotton why. We will remember soon enough and be nostalgic for the good old days of EU membership.
Tories - Submit article 50 again but do it right this time?
Labour - Submit article 50 again but do it right this time?
It's a futile argument, since who can decide whether people are electing individuals to represent their views, (the legal position), voting for the text of the manifesto (which few will read), voting for a choice of political party regardless of candidate, or voting for the personality of the prospective PM?
Half-hearted membership is bad for the UK and bad for the EU.
:-)
Failing that there will be an A50 extension and then a May's deal/remain referendum.
Speaking to very sensible remain voters over the hols it is clear that the backstop is an issue for them and hence May should or will have to become more explicit, within the constraints of the politics of it all (ie the precarious if not absurd situation in NI), about why the backstop is necessary and non-negotiable.
The fantasy Brexit was understood by both leaver and remainer Labour voters as in their interests - "leaving" the EU, and not leaving because impossible asks. A clever piece of drafting.
It could be argued that deciding to remain in the circumstances where such a deal turns out to be completely unchievable would not be a contradiction of the maninfesto (i.e. a truly meaningful vote should include the option of rejection). It could also be argued that voting for A50 and giving the Brexiters the best part of three years to come up with a credible, workable and beneficial way forward - and seeing them fail - is giving quite sufficient respect to the referendum result.
I agree there won't be a General Election. Not so sure about us not leaving on 29 March, or on there being a second referendum. I think the likeliest moment for that to occur (the 11 December vote-that-never-was) has been and gone.
Anyway, green either way on that occurrence.
So, the 364 were incorrect.
If the 'one job' government secures an extension, my guess is that the Tories would commit to progressing towards Brexit on a different (maybe ultimately harder) basis, and Labour may duck out by suggesting another referendum.
If the 'one job' government goes for revocation, it may be the Tories that commit to another in/out referendum within its term, whereas Labour may choose to kick the whole thing into the long grass with some vague words about revisiting it as and when there is clear public support for it, meanwhile concentrating on introducing five years of socialism.
Difficult to see how the last prediction and the first can possibly both be the case unless there are formal splits in one or both of the two major parties, in which case why not say so. That seems a far bolder prediction than either the first or last. I am not sure it will happen myself, but there is certainly plenty of speculation about it particularly on the Tory side.
Any Labour or Conservative must know that they would be finishing their careers by joining such a government, unless they formed a new cross-party alliance dedicated to EU membership. Even then, FPTP would probably enable Labour and the Conservatives to kill them.
You are right that returning to their parties could be difficult, but is either of them really going to destroy themselves by taking action against so many? It would be an entirely different proposition to expelling ten or fifteen rebels.
The alternative might be that MPs are left impotent protesting about no deal whilst doing nothing meaningful to prevent it happening. That won't reflect well on them, at all.
But most people seem to be assuming that if the UK wants an extension we'll get one, even though that requires unanimity from the other members. Isn't there also potential for a game of "chicken" between the UK and the rest of the EU - who are in a position to threaten us with No Deal unless we either revoke or agree to the deal that's on the table?
I believe that revocation couldn't be done by amendment and hence needs to be done by government? If so then I can only see four routes (prior to a GE) to it:
- a remarkable about turn by the current government, which would lead straight to Tory civil war.
- a cross-party 'one job' government along the lines I suggest downthread
- some realignment of the political parties that throws up a new government
- May is threatened with her and/or her government being deposed (and/or parliament passes a vote for revocation with a clear majority) and she is forced to do it.
As to the last, doing nothing, while blaming opponents, is the easiest option.