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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Clegg thinks there are votes to be had in pursuing a fi

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited October 2013
    SMukesh said:



    Unfortunately I didn`t see this work.But given his latest theory being that Labour have less than one percent chance of getting a majority,I am unsure how much credence I would place on his work.

    It's not my latest theory. I am merely reporting what the L&N model is saying. Its output has changed of course over time, and could do so again.

    But it's severely at odds with the opinion polls...

    http://www.titanictown.plus.com/pendulum.png

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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,395
    SeanT said:

    I'm having a night off the booze. I haven't been this bored since my mid-teens.

    Question for the pb non drinkers: what the F do you do all night? How do you cope with the ennui and dullness?

    Stand for Parliament, you'll never be bored again, there's no time. There's always another 100 emails and 5 leaflets and 2 articles to draft. But if that doesn't appeal, try online poker.

    One of pb's charms is that it keeps us in touch if we've been out of the loop for the day. I just google the people we're not supposed to discuss. Very useful!

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,146
    SeanT said:

    I'm having a night off the booze. I haven't been this bored since my mid-teens.

    Question for the pb non drinkers: what the F do you do all night? How do you cope with the ennui and dullness?

    Best way to get rid of one addiction is replace it with another. As Nick P suggests perhaps poker ? But don't play online go straight to the $5000 - €20000 live tournaments. They have big (well moderate for you) cash side games too !
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Interesting. Currently showing zero chance of Labour majority.

    Doesn't seem right.

    How has the model done previously?

    RodCrosby said:

    SMukesh said:



    Unfortunately I didn`t see this work.But given his latest theory being that Labour have less than one percent chance of getting a majority,I am unsure how much credence I would place on his work.

    It's not my latest theory. I am merely reporting what the L&N model is saying. Its output has changed of course over time, and could do so again.

    But it's severely at odds with the opinion polls...

    http://www.titanictown.plus.com/pendulum.png

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    BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Has the PB Moderator ever been moderated?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited October 2013
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    I'm having a night off the booze. I haven't been this bored since my mid-teens.

    Question for the pb non drinkers: what the F do you do all night? How do you cope with the ennui and dullness?

    Best way to get rid of one addiction is replace it with another. As Nick P suggests perhaps poker ? But don't play online go straight to the $5000 - €20000 live tournaments. They have big (well moderate for you) cash side games too !
    It's OK, I've just discovered there's porn on the Net. Why didn't anyone tell me this before?
    I have a feeling this could fill the odd spare moment, quite easily.
    That's an image I didn't need at this time of night.

    Is Paris, London, Paris, Frankfurt, New York and back in a week some kind of record? Turned down a trip to Barcelona because I couldn't make the trip efficient.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited October 2013

    Interesting. Currently showing zero chance of Labour majority.

    Doesn't seem right.

    How has the model done previously?

    I know, but we know opinion polls are the most unreliable long-range predictors...

    The model has correctly 'predicted' the outcome of every post-war election (using accepted statistical techniques like out-of-sample and one-step-ahead forecasting). In 2010 the final prediction was within a few seats of the actual outcome.

    The model basically says:

    i) British politics is cyclical, with a natural periodicity of about 30 years. Ordinarily, three Tory victories, followed by three Labour. So a first term government starts with a very fair wind.

    ii) VI polls are next to useless for forecasting, prior to the election campaign. But PM approval is a proxy for how voters really think, and will vote.

    iii) a complex autoregressive equation can be derived to predict the outcome of the next election, combining i) and ii).

    Usually L&N employ the PM approval figure three months before election day (often this is the last available anyhow), but there is no reason, imho, not to take note of what the model is saying well in advance of the election...

    I may do a guest article sometime...
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    I'm having a night off the booze. I haven't been this bored since my mid-teens.

    Question for the pb non drinkers: what the F do you do all night? How do you cope with the ennui and dullness?

    Best way to get rid of one addiction is replace it with another. As Nick P suggests perhaps poker ? But don't play online go straight to the $5000 - €20000 live tournaments. They have big (well moderate for you) cash side games too !
    It's OK, I've just discovered there's porn on the Net. Why didn't anyone tell me this before?
    I have a feeling this could fill the odd spare moment, quite easily.
    You mean the Sunil on Sunday Page 3 model... train?
  • Options
    WarrenWarren Posts: 1
    ComRes have done a poll of voting intention in Brighton and Hove as part of a BBC South East documentary on the UK's first Green Party Council Administration:

    Labour 38% (up 6 on 2011 local elections)
    Conservatives 25% (down 4)
    Greens 21% (down 12)
    UKIP 9% (up 8)

    1004 voters surveyed between 3rd and 8th October. Although a local elections VI poll, this would indicate three likely Labour gains in Hove, Brighton Kemptown and Brighton Pavilion (Caroline Lucas) at the General Election held on the same day as the next Brighton and Hove locals.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    My own observation is that single term gifts are very rare, but this model must be like polls, not accurate 18 months in advance.

    It would be a good article.
    RodCrosby said:

    Interesting. Currently showing zero chance of Labour majority.

    Doesn't seem right.

    How has the model done previously?

    I know, but we know opinion polls are the most unreliable long-range predictors...

    The model has correctly 'predicted' the outcome of every post-war election (using accepted statistical techniques like out-of-sample and one-step-ahead forecasting). In 2010 the final prediction was within a few seats of the actual outcome.

    The model basically says:

    i) British politics is cyclical, with a natural periodicity of about 30 years. Ordinarily, three Tory victories, followed by three Labour. So a first term government starts with a very fair wind.

    ii) VI polls are next to useless for forecasting, prior to the election campaign. But PM approval is a proxy for how voters really think, and will vote.

    iii) a complex autoregressive equation can be derived to predict the outcome of the next election, combining i) and ii).

    Usually L&N employ the PM approval figure three months before election day (often this is the last available anyhow), but there is no reason, imho, not to take note of what the model is saying well in advance of the election...

    I may do a guest article sometime...
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    My own observation is that single term gifts are very rare, but this model must be like polls, not accurate 18 months in advance.

    It would be a good article.

    I dare say it's not accurate 18 months in advance, but the point of posting the 'forecasts' this far out really is to ask the question:-

    Do they give a better inkling than VI polls of which way the wind is blowing?

    Note the Labour VI lead is narrowing...
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,395
    Charles said:


    Is Paris, London, Paris, Frankfurt, New York and back in a week some kind of record? Turned down a trip to Barcelona because I couldn't make the trip efficient.

    Oh well, I'll see that and raise you Nottingham, London, Moscow, Shanghai and Brussels, amd, er, Worthing in a week. Flying tomorrow to Shanghai via Moscow with Aeroflot to give a talk, stopping for half a day then flying back.

    We both need to get a life.

  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,020
    edited October 2013
    Bobajob said:

    Has the PB Moderator ever been moderated?


    Once. It was the moderation exception, or modception if you prefer.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,176
    Warren said:

    ComRes have done a poll of voting intention in Brighton and Hove as part of a BBC South East documentary on the UK's first Green Party Council Administration:

    Labour 38% (up 6 on 2011 local elections)
    Conservatives 25% (down 4)
    Greens 21% (down 12)
    UKIP 9% (up 8)

    1004 voters surveyed between 3rd and 8th October. Although a local elections VI poll, this would indicate three likely Labour gains in Hove, Brighton Kemptown and Brighton Pavilion (Caroline Lucas) at the General Election held on the same day as the next Brighton and Hove locals.

    Did they break out the numbers for Brighton Pavillion? Incumbency makes Lucas's seat a very different proposition from the others.
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    Charles said:


    Is Paris, London, Paris, Frankfurt, New York and back in a week some kind of record? Turned down a trip to Barcelona because I couldn't make the trip efficient.

    Oh well, I'll see that and raise you Nottingham, London, Moscow, Shanghai and Brussels, amd, er, Worthing in a week. Flying tomorrow to Shanghai via Moscow with Aeroflot to give a talk, stopping for half a day then flying back.

    We both need to get a life.

    Hope you lads are busy planting trees to compensate for all those emissions!

  • Options
    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    Charles said:


    Is Paris, London, Paris, Frankfurt, New York and back in a week some kind of record? Turned down a trip to Barcelona because I couldn't make the trip efficient.

    Oh well, I'll see that and raise you Nottingham, London, Moscow, Shanghai and Brussels, amd, er, Worthing in a week. Flying tomorrow to Shanghai via Moscow with Aeroflot to give a talk, stopping for half a day then flying back.

    We both need to get a life.

    Hope you lads are busy planting trees to compensate for all those emissions!

    Better still, set up a diesel generator farm. It's the new green energy.
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    MrJones said:

    Charles said:


    Is Paris, London, Paris, Frankfurt, New York and back in a week some kind of record? Turned down a trip to Barcelona because I couldn't make the trip efficient.

    Oh well, I'll see that and raise you Nottingham, London, Moscow, Shanghai and Brussels, amd, er, Worthing in a week. Flying tomorrow to Shanghai via Moscow with Aeroflot to give a talk, stopping for half a day then flying back.

    We both need to get a life.

    Hope you lads are busy planting trees to compensate for all those emissions!

    Better still, set up a diesel generator farm. It's the new green energy.
    As long as they run them on used chip fat, should be fine!
This discussion has been closed.