Unfortunately I didn`t see this work.But given his latest theory being that Labour have less than one percent chance of getting a majority,I am unsure how much credence I would place on his work.
It's not my latest theory. I am merely reporting what the L&N model is saying. Its output has changed of course over time, and could do so again.
But it's severely at odds with the opinion polls...
I'm having a night off the booze. I haven't been this bored since my mid-teens.
Question for the pb non drinkers: what the F do you do all night? How do you cope with the ennui and dullness?
Stand for Parliament, you'll never be bored again, there's no time. There's always another 100 emails and 5 leaflets and 2 articles to draft. But if that doesn't appeal, try online poker.
One of pb's charms is that it keeps us in touch if we've been out of the loop for the day. I just google the people we're not supposed to discuss. Very useful!
I'm having a night off the booze. I haven't been this bored since my mid-teens.
Question for the pb non drinkers: what the F do you do all night? How do you cope with the ennui and dullness?
Best way to get rid of one addiction is replace it with another. As Nick P suggests perhaps poker ? But don't play online go straight to the $5000 - €20000 live tournaments. They have big (well moderate for you) cash side games too !
Unfortunately I didn`t see this work.But given his latest theory being that Labour have less than one percent chance of getting a majority,I am unsure how much credence I would place on his work.
It's not my latest theory. I am merely reporting what the L&N model is saying. Its output has changed of course over time, and could do so again.
But it's severely at odds with the opinion polls...
I'm having a night off the booze. I haven't been this bored since my mid-teens.
Question for the pb non drinkers: what the F do you do all night? How do you cope with the ennui and dullness?
Best way to get rid of one addiction is replace it with another. As Nick P suggests perhaps poker ? But don't play online go straight to the $5000 - €20000 live tournaments. They have big (well moderate for you) cash side games too !
It's OK, I've just discovered there's porn on the Net. Why didn't anyone tell me this before? I have a feeling this could fill the odd spare moment, quite easily.
That's an image I didn't need at this time of night.
Is Paris, London, Paris, Frankfurt, New York and back in a week some kind of record? Turned down a trip to Barcelona because I couldn't make the trip efficient.
Interesting. Currently showing zero chance of Labour majority.
Doesn't seem right.
How has the model done previously?
I know, but we know opinion polls are the most unreliable long-range predictors...
The model has correctly 'predicted' the outcome of every post-war election (using accepted statistical techniques like out-of-sample and one-step-ahead forecasting). In 2010 the final prediction was within a few seats of the actual outcome.
The model basically says:
i) British politics is cyclical, with a natural periodicity of about 30 years. Ordinarily, three Tory victories, followed by three Labour. So a first term government starts with a very fair wind.
ii) VI polls are next to useless for forecasting, prior to the election campaign. But PM approval is a proxy for how voters really think, and will vote.
iii) a complex autoregressive equation can be derived to predict the outcome of the next election, combining i) and ii).
Usually L&N employ the PM approval figure three months before election day (often this is the last available anyhow), but there is no reason, imho, not to take note of what the model is saying well in advance of the election...
I'm having a night off the booze. I haven't been this bored since my mid-teens.
Question for the pb non drinkers: what the F do you do all night? How do you cope with the ennui and dullness?
Best way to get rid of one addiction is replace it with another. As Nick P suggests perhaps poker ? But don't play online go straight to the $5000 - €20000 live tournaments. They have big (well moderate for you) cash side games too !
It's OK, I've just discovered there's porn on the Net. Why didn't anyone tell me this before? I have a feeling this could fill the odd spare moment, quite easily.
You mean the Sunil on Sunday Page 3 model... train?
ComRes have done a poll of voting intention in Brighton and Hove as part of a BBC South East documentary on the UK's first Green Party Council Administration:
Labour 38% (up 6 on 2011 local elections) Conservatives 25% (down 4) Greens 21% (down 12) UKIP 9% (up 8)
1004 voters surveyed between 3rd and 8th October. Although a local elections VI poll, this would indicate three likely Labour gains in Hove, Brighton Kemptown and Brighton Pavilion (Caroline Lucas) at the General Election held on the same day as the next Brighton and Hove locals.
Interesting. Currently showing zero chance of Labour majority.
Doesn't seem right.
How has the model done previously?
I know, but we know opinion polls are the most unreliable long-range predictors...
The model has correctly 'predicted' the outcome of every post-war election (using accepted statistical techniques like out-of-sample and one-step-ahead forecasting). In 2010 the final prediction was within a few seats of the actual outcome.
The model basically says:
i) British politics is cyclical, with a natural periodicity of about 30 years. Ordinarily, three Tory victories, followed by three Labour. So a first term government starts with a very fair wind.
ii) VI polls are next to useless for forecasting, prior to the election campaign. But PM approval is a proxy for how voters really think, and will vote.
iii) a complex autoregressive equation can be derived to predict the outcome of the next election, combining i) and ii).
Usually L&N employ the PM approval figure three months before election day (often this is the last available anyhow), but there is no reason, imho, not to take note of what the model is saying well in advance of the election...
Is Paris, London, Paris, Frankfurt, New York and back in a week some kind of record? Turned down a trip to Barcelona because I couldn't make the trip efficient.
Oh well, I'll see that and raise you Nottingham, London, Moscow, Shanghai and Brussels, amd, er, Worthing in a week. Flying tomorrow to Shanghai via Moscow with Aeroflot to give a talk, stopping for half a day then flying back.
ComRes have done a poll of voting intention in Brighton and Hove as part of a BBC South East documentary on the UK's first Green Party Council Administration:
Labour 38% (up 6 on 2011 local elections) Conservatives 25% (down 4) Greens 21% (down 12) UKIP 9% (up 8)
1004 voters surveyed between 3rd and 8th October. Although a local elections VI poll, this would indicate three likely Labour gains in Hove, Brighton Kemptown and Brighton Pavilion (Caroline Lucas) at the General Election held on the same day as the next Brighton and Hove locals.
Did they break out the numbers for Brighton Pavillion? Incumbency makes Lucas's seat a very different proposition from the others.
Is Paris, London, Paris, Frankfurt, New York and back in a week some kind of record? Turned down a trip to Barcelona because I couldn't make the trip efficient.
Oh well, I'll see that and raise you Nottingham, London, Moscow, Shanghai and Brussels, amd, er, Worthing in a week. Flying tomorrow to Shanghai via Moscow with Aeroflot to give a talk, stopping for half a day then flying back.
We both need to get a life.
Hope you lads are busy planting trees to compensate for all those emissions!
Is Paris, London, Paris, Frankfurt, New York and back in a week some kind of record? Turned down a trip to Barcelona because I couldn't make the trip efficient.
Oh well, I'll see that and raise you Nottingham, London, Moscow, Shanghai and Brussels, amd, er, Worthing in a week. Flying tomorrow to Shanghai via Moscow with Aeroflot to give a talk, stopping for half a day then flying back.
We both need to get a life.
Hope you lads are busy planting trees to compensate for all those emissions!
Better still, set up a diesel generator farm. It's the new green energy.
Is Paris, London, Paris, Frankfurt, New York and back in a week some kind of record? Turned down a trip to Barcelona because I couldn't make the trip efficient.
Oh well, I'll see that and raise you Nottingham, London, Moscow, Shanghai and Brussels, amd, er, Worthing in a week. Flying tomorrow to Shanghai via Moscow with Aeroflot to give a talk, stopping for half a day then flying back.
We both need to get a life.
Hope you lads are busy planting trees to compensate for all those emissions!
Better still, set up a diesel generator farm. It's the new green energy.
As long as they run them on used chip fat, should be fine!
Comments
But it's severely at odds with the opinion polls...
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/pendulum.png
One of pb's charms is that it keeps us in touch if we've been out of the loop for the day. I just google the people we're not supposed to discuss. Very useful!
Doesn't seem right.
How has the model done previously?
Is Paris, London, Paris, Frankfurt, New York and back in a week some kind of record? Turned down a trip to Barcelona because I couldn't make the trip efficient.
The model has correctly 'predicted' the outcome of every post-war election (using accepted statistical techniques like out-of-sample and one-step-ahead forecasting). In 2010 the final prediction was within a few seats of the actual outcome.
The model basically says:
i) British politics is cyclical, with a natural periodicity of about 30 years. Ordinarily, three Tory victories, followed by three Labour. So a first term government starts with a very fair wind.
ii) VI polls are next to useless for forecasting, prior to the election campaign. But PM approval is a proxy for how voters really think, and will vote.
iii) a complex autoregressive equation can be derived to predict the outcome of the next election, combining i) and ii).
Usually L&N employ the PM approval figure three months before election day (often this is the last available anyhow), but there is no reason, imho, not to take note of what the model is saying well in advance of the election...
I may do a guest article sometime...
Labour 38% (up 6 on 2011 local elections)
Conservatives 25% (down 4)
Greens 21% (down 12)
UKIP 9% (up 8)
1004 voters surveyed between 3rd and 8th October. Although a local elections VI poll, this would indicate three likely Labour gains in Hove, Brighton Kemptown and Brighton Pavilion (Caroline Lucas) at the General Election held on the same day as the next Brighton and Hove locals.
It would be a good article.
Do they give a better inkling than VI polls of which way the wind is blowing?
Note the Labour VI lead is narrowing...
We both need to get a life.
Once. It was the moderation exception, or modception if you prefer.