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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON European leader is in UKIP’s sights

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  • isam said:

    "He reminds me very much of those fanatic Moslem group spokespeople who get huge amounts of coverage without actually having any real support"

    Rings very true. Perhaps the media should stop giving him the oxygen of coverage.

    Feel very statist saying this, but shouldn't there be some kind of law banning organisations from mentioning race or sex in their name?

    There should be a law against lazy journalists giving credence to a self-publicist and/or agenda-driven crazy just because he/she has come up with a clever sounding name for an organisation. Any half decent news operation should have rules in place about organisations having a transparent membership and leadership structure before they are set up as some kind of credible source of news and views. Herbert has history on this. He led the media a merry dance a whole back over the whole Yids debate at Spurs. Basically, he is one bloke, a website and an email address.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Interesting to see that one of the businesses involved, SNPTC, is the general contractor for the first four AP1000 units being built in China.

    If the previous government hadn't sold the British state owned Westinghouse Electric Company (who design those reactors) to Toshiba in 2006, the Chinese would be paying us for nuclear power.

    Well done to Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and Labour.
    Yes, that does look like a terrible decision.

    At the moment, British companies are world-leading in developing wave power technology. If we are to avoid repeating past mistakes it might be an idea to invest in renewable energy, rather than to sit back and watch other countries do so and benefit down the line - as happened with wind turbines, and nuclear power [I believe Sellafield/Windscale was the first civil nuclear power plant].
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP polled 25% in yesterday's by-elections in the wards they contested.
  • We'll see. It could work if they cut down on the number of 1st class carriages and put a premium carriage or two in their place. But I would not bet on it.

    East Coast are getting a very large number of new trains (in service 2016 I think) that will significantly increase capacity. I don't think the idea would be to renovate the (now very old) existing carriages, rather you'd build it in to the spec of new rolling stock. I travel fairly regularly with East Coast on their long distance services (Edinburgh to London) and they don't seem to suffer from the extreme overcrowding you get on a lot of the commuter lines in and around London.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Yes. I think that the Lib Dems will be hugely relieved if they "only" lose 25 MPs in 2015. As I say, Shadsy of Ladbrokes is rarely far wrong, and his "Under 37.5" band is now actually FAV, at just under EVS.
    If as you say Shadsy is rarely far wrong then the Lib Dems will lose only 19/20 seats .
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jeremy Hunt really is an annoying person, isn't he. I can't stand politicians who lecture us on how we should be living, especially if they believe in nonsense like homeopathy.
  • AndyJS said:

    Jeremy Hunt really is an annoying person, isn't he. I can't stand politicians who lecture us on how we should be living, especially if they believe in nonsense like homeopathy.

    I'm not sure where the bedroom tax fits into this idea about taking in elderly relatives who can no longer look after themselves.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2013
    What I find incredible is the fact that in about seven years' time China's population will be declining while the UK's will probably still be rising.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,956
    MaxPB said:

    I thought the 5% was post subsidy, but I could be mistaken, a project with almost guaranteed 5% ROI with a possible subsidy still to come would surely have happened by now. A vehicle would have been created by EDF, Centrica and others to get the money together and hey would have started with that level of return on offer. It higher than Centrica's current company wide ROI for example.

    TBH, I'm talking from memory here, so I could also be completely wrong. It's worth remembering that the green lobby was adamantly opposed to the tidal barrage as it would affect wildlife (completely bonkers). Also, it is fair to say there were significant questions as regards the ability of the project to be delivered on time and on budget.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    He's also totally vacuous

    "Mr Hunt’s view of the east is perhaps one that harks back to the early 1990s – when he spent a few rose-tinted post-university years as an English teacher in Japan.

    The facts are less romantic. Asia is on track to be the world’s largest old people’s home – with more old people than any where else in the world.

    China is facing up to the reality of its one-child policy, with demand for care homes and carers soaring as the ageing population continues to grow.

    The days of the happy “social contract” between generations in China are numbered. The government knows it – which is why it’s investing in support for carers right now (on the advice of the British government)."

    http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-hunts-rosetinted-view-chinas-social-care-system/16154


    Hunt married into a Chinese family. Probably gives him more of an idea about local society than Channel 4 give him credit for.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    UKIP polled 25% in yesterday's by-elections in the wards they contested.

    Nope it was 19.5% in the 4 out of 7 wards they contested .
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,358
    rcs1000 said:

    TBH, I'm talking from memory here, so I could also be completely wrong. It's worth remembering that the green lobby was adamantly opposed to the tidal barrage as it would affect wildlife (completely bonkers). Also, it is fair to say there were significant questions as regards the ability of the project to be delivered on time and on budget.
    Honestly if we're going to listen to the green lobby we may as well start moving into caves right now and turn off the power plants while we're at it.

    Again, from memory the medium sized Severn barrage proposed would have provided power for pretty much the whole of the Severn valley, the largest proposal would have returned electricity to the grid at peak time because of the way tidal energy is stored.

    As for costs, as long as the regulations were set beforehand and fixed then it could be delivered on time and within budget.

    As for the Thames barrage proposal, it would have provided a similar level of power as he Hoover dam, but it would effectively end the Mayor's plan for a new airport which is where the opposition comes from I think.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    tim said:


    Hunt's not to be taken at face value on anyones living arrangements, least of all his own

    "Frontbench Tory Jeremy Hunt has admitted not telling the truth about letting his agent stay rent-free in his taxpayer-funded country home.

    Shadow Culture Secretary Mr Hunt, already facing a probe over expenses, said he let his Tory agent Margaret Chellingworth live rent-free for seven months at his second home in Farnham after he became MP for South West Surrey and lived in London.

    He then changed his story and said she lived there for up to a year. But now he has admitted she stayed at the property - partly paid for by taxpayers' cash - for over THREE years.

    Mr Hunt, 42, admitted misleading constituents and his website says his agent stayed there from February 2004 until she retired in June 2007."



    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/expenses-row-tory-jeremy-hunt-399904#ixzz2i5ehUn1f
    Did she stay there all of the time? Or just a few nights a week?

    I'm sure you wouldn't want to paint a misleading picture of a prominent Tory. Surely not...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    "Jumpergate - the story that wasn't"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24586951

    "When the legend becomes fact, print the legend."
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Nope it was 19.5% in the 4 out of 7 wards they contested .
    I don't usually make arithmetic mistakes myself so that's probably happened because I was relying on someone else's totals for each by-election. Just have to do it all myself next time.
  • If as you say Shadsy is rarely far wrong then the Lib Dems will lose only 19/20 seats .
    Huh?

    62 seats won at UK GE 2010 minus 37.5 retained seats (Shadsy's estimate) = 24.5 lost seats
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Huh?

    62 seats won at UK GE 2010 minus 37.5 retained seats (Shadsy's estimate) = 24.5 lost seats
    57 seats won at UK GE 2010 , it is not often you are right , you are wrong again .
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    I don't usually make arithmetic mistakes myself so that's probably happened because I was relying on someone else's totals for each by-election. Just have to do it all myself next time.
    See middleenglanders post on the Vote 2012 site .
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    @DavidL

    Its too easy a target ripping into the hapless govt on energy prices, they are hilariously, serially laughable and incompetent.
    When you've got the energy minister claiming the energy companies are robbing the customer and Number Ten talking about putting on jumpers they've screwed themselves and it would be silly of a political opponent not to take advantage.

    You're not a political opponent, you're just some bloke posting on a website*.

    (Unless you want to tell us differently) don't get ideas above your station

    (*as we all, except for the few women among us)
  • "Jumpergate - the story that wasn't"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24586951

    "When the legend becomes fact, print the legend."

    So you don't think this will be the great game changer that Badgergate was? The story the whole of the UK was talking about.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,358

    "Jumpergate - the story that wasn't"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24586951

    "When the legend becomes fact, print the legend."

    So the Mirror made it up. Quelle surprise...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    edited October 2013
    I expect The Hon Tristram "I've got a PhD from Cambridge you know" Hunt will claim that local authority schools are facing a grave crisis - given this scandal at a local authority school:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/elmete-central-school-headteacher-allowed-2463805
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited October 2013
    Well, if the politicians don't dare speak simple truths, that doesn't mean we have to follow them.

    So here's a simple truth: anyone who complains about their heating bill, but doesn't wear a jumper at home in cold weather so they can adjust the thermostat a touch lower whilst remaining comfortable, is barking mad.
  • "Jumpergate - the story that wasn't"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24586951

    "When the legend becomes fact, print the legend."

    ... that's really depressing ...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256

    So you don't think this will be the great game changer that Badgergate was? The story the whole of the UK was talking about.
    True, it was only that that drove man cries at funeral off the front pages.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    In a surprise development....the SNP's sums don't add up:

    "Michael Fallon told a fringe meeting at the Tory conference in Manchester that UK taxpayers contribute £500 million a year towards Scotland’s renewable energy industry.
    This is 40 per cent of the UK’s renewables total despite Scotland only having about 10 per cent of the population, he said, suggesting this burden would have to be borne by Scottish bill payers alone after independence."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10344111/Michael-Fallon-Scottish-independence-would-drive-up-energy-bills.html
  • 57 seats won at UK GE 2010 , it is not often you are right , you are wrong again .
    Aha! I read this page too fast:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010

    It says very clearly, at the top of the table: "Last election: 62 seats". However, the "last election" it is referring to is actually UK GE 2005.

    Still, will be fun if the Lib Dems lose 19 to 20 seats. I will have a great chortle as every new loss rolls across the ticker.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    Yet more good news for the Osborne Bubble fans

    matthew oakeshott
    @oakeshottm
    Bank of England shows banks sucked £2.3bn more net lending from business last qtr but 5 yr high for mortgages!! No way to rebalance economy.

    As silly a statement from Lord Oakeshott as we have all come to expect.

    The fall in net lending to all businesses (large and SME) may be a cause for concern but it is not related to any increases in secured lending to individuals. There is no evidence that banks are redirecting limited resources from enterprises to households. Subdued demand for bank lending is the problem not lack of capacity or an unwillingness to supply.

    Part of the reason bank lending to large businesses has fallen is that firms are increasing their use of alternate and competitive sources of funding: e.g. bond issuance, equity markets, asset finance, trade finance etc.

    In the SME sector, gross lending by banks has fallen slightly but the larger decrease in net lending is mainly due to higher rates of loan repayments.

    So overall a picture of a quiet market with fragile demand rather than a crisis of confidence or the pursuit of wrong lending priorities. If Oakehott includes deleveraging in his definition of rebalancing then that is what is precisely what is happening: firms of all sizes are reducing their net borrowings from banks.

    In the household sector, unsecured lending has moved into positive growth from around the turn of the year and is currently rising at a annual rate of around 4%. This figure hides churn with credit card borrowing rising faster than personal loans and overdrafts.

    Secured lending to individuals (mainly mortgages for house purchase) has finally started to pick up after a sustained period of post crisis falls. But annual growth in net lending is only 0.6% for August and 0.5% for the year to date, still lower than all years since the crash and "a million miles" away from the 11.1% annual growth in 2007.

    Even if we take the modest increase in mortgage approvals as an early indicator of future lending growth, the "highest level since February 2008", then the picture remains the same. Sixty thousand mortgage approvals per month is still less than half the monthly rate of approvals in 2007 even if it is up on the thirty thousand trough hit during 2008.

    Yellow Chart to follow!

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    @tim

    Yellow Chart on bank lending for the PB Oakeshottes
    =============================================================
    Bank of England: Oct 2013 - Secured lending to individuals(a)
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Averages
    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
    Q2
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Net monthly flow
    (£ billions) 9.0 3.4 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8

    Three-month
    annualised growth
    rate (per cent) 10.4 4.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

    Twelve-month
    growth rate
    (per cent) 11.1 6.9 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5

    -------------------------------------------------------------
    2013
    June July Aug.
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Net monthly flow 1.1 0.8 1.0
    (£ billions)

    Three-month
    annualised growth 0.8 0.8 0.9
    rate (per cent)

    Twelve-month
    growth rate 0.5 0.6 0.6
    (per cent)
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    (a) Sterling lending by UK monetary financial institutions
    and other lenders to UK individuals. Seasonally adjusted.
    =============================================================
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MaxPB said:

    So the Mirror made it up. Quelle surprise...
    Still kept the PB Kinnocks off the meths for an hour or two - every little helps.
  • In a surprise development....the SNP's sums don't add up:

    "Michael Fallon told a fringe meeting at the Tory conference in Manchester that UK taxpayers contribute £500 million a year towards Scotland’s renewable energy industry.
    This is 40 per cent of the UK’s renewables total despite Scotland only having about 10 per cent of the population, he said, suggesting this burden would have to be borne by Scottish bill payers alone after independence."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10344111/Michael-Fallon-Scottish-independence-would-drive-up-energy-bills.html

    Yawn.

    Too wee, too poor, too stupid.

    Not got any new ones?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256

    Yawn.

    Too wee, too poor, too stupid.

    Not got any new ones?
    Leaving the Union will cost £500m in cross subsidy from the UK on renewables - will you stop investing in them, fund from energy bills, or from general taxation? Nicola promised today to save £200m......where is the £300m to come from?

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited October 2013

    Well, if the politicians don't dare speak simple truths, that doesn't mean we have to follow them.

    So here's a simple truth: anyone who complains about their heating bill, but doesn't wear a jumper at home in cold weather so they can adjust the thermostat a touch lower whilst remaining comfortable, is barking mad.

    It is a simple truth, and you are right, but the reason the media desperately wanted this to be a story is that most people worried about their energy bills already wear a jumper, or do much more than that, so to suggest it was a solution to an increase in energy prices would have been deeply insensitive. Although no-one in the government did this, it was effectively what British Gas did say.

    When I was looking to buy my house, one of the sort of properties you come across is the relatively cheap house in a bad state of repair that was formerly occupied by an elderly pensioner. Close observation of these houses can reveal several useful energy-saving tips. There is the heavy blanket hung up inside the living room door. The sofa moved close to the electric heater.

    Of course many of these older houses have terrible insulation - precisely the sorts of houses which the social obligation levy is used to pay for insulation and more efficient heaters. Unfortunately, it has now become fashionable to deride these levies as "green taxes" that need to be cut to reduce the cost of living, and forget about the grannies with the blanket hung up across the door.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited October 2013
    Why do the SNP supporters insist on describing their fellow Scots as 'too wee, too poor, too stupid' when ever the SNP or their policies are questioned? Its extremely insulting to all Scots when these SNP supporters try to belittle them in this manner.

    Yawn.

    Too wee, too poor, too stupid.

    Not got any new ones?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    "Jumpergate - the story that wasn't"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24586951

    "When the legend becomes fact, print the legend."

    Carlotta

    The story always appeared a bit woolly to me.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    I take it as a compliment - failure to engage with the substance of the argument merely demonstrates the poverty of their own.....
    fitalass said:

    Why do the SNP supporters insist on describing their fellow Scots as 'too wee, too poor, too stupid' when ever the SNP or their policies are questioned? Its extremely insulting to all Scots when the SNP try to belittle them in this manner.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Off topic, anyone doubting that there's a bubble in property in parts of London should consider the following anecdote. I'm currently considering whether to let out or sell the flat I'm currently living in (I'm moving upstairs). As part of the decision-making process, I got a couple of estate agents around in August and their view was that I could aim for a sale at £1 million. This week, now being closer to the flat being ready, I got another estate agent round. His view - in full knowledge of what I had previously been told - was that the flat should now fetch between £1.1m and £1.15m. In his words "I hate to sound like a cheesy estate agent, but the market right now for selling has never been so good". The flat immediately below mine had sold in June for £925,000.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Yawn.

    Too wee, too poor, too stupid.

    Not got any new ones?
    I've only ever heard SNP supporters use the "too stupid" description for Scotland; is it some kind of complex amongst you? Or just a lie about what unionists say?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    antifrank said:

    Off topic, anyone doubting that there's a bubble in property in parts of London should consider the following anecdote. I'm currently considering whether to let out or sell the flat I'm currently living in (I'm moving upstairs). As part of the decision-making process, I got a couple of estate agents around in August and their view was that I could aim for a sale at £1 million. This week, now being closer to the flat being ready, I got another estate agent round. His view - in full knowledge of what I had previously been told - was that the flat should now fetch between £1.1m and £1.15m. In his words "I hate to sound like a cheesy estate agent, but the market right now for selling has never been so good". The flat immediately below mine had sold in June for £925,000.

    Fast rising prices do not equate to a bubble.

    Take Royal Mail shares for example ;)


  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Leaving the Union will cost £500m in cross subsidy from the UK on renewables - will you stop investing in them, fund from energy bills, or from general taxation? Nicola promised today to save £200m......where is the £300m to come from?
    Well, Scotland won't have to pay for their share of all the infrastructure spending that goes on around London, such as Crossrail, High-Speed 2, etc.

    Of course there are lots of cross-border flows of money that you can point to now, in both directions, but Scotland's fiscal position after independence isn't going to be that much worse than the UK's is now, if at all. Which is not to say that it will be that good, because the UK's fiscal position is still pretty horrendous, but it seems like a transparently crap line of argument, just like the independence argument that everything will be fine because they have the oil money is a load of rubbish.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    AveryLP said:

    Carlotta

    The story always appeared a bit woolly to me.

    It was bound to unravel......the PB Kinnocks got fleeced.....

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Well, Scotland won't have to pay for their share of all the infrastructure spending that goes on around London, such as Crossrail, High-Speed 2, etc.

    Of course there are lots of cross-border flows of money that you can point to now, in both directions, but Scotland's fiscal position after independence isn't going to be that much worse than the UK's is now, if at all. Which is not to say that it will be that good, because the UK's fiscal position is still pretty horrendous, but it seems like a transparently crap line of argument, just like the independence argument that everything will be fine because they have the oil money is a load of rubbish.
    Yes - taking the money making powerhouse of London away should have no effect - and not having your own currency won't make much impact on their ability to borrow cheaply...

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    antifrank said:

    Off topic, anyone doubting that there's a bubble in property in parts of London should consider the following anecdote. I'm currently considering whether to let out or sell the flat I'm currently living in (I'm moving upstairs). As part of the decision-making process, I got a couple of estate agents around in August and their view was that I could aim for a sale at £1 million. This week, now being closer to the flat being ready, I got another estate agent round. His view - in full knowledge of what I had previously been told - was that the flat should now fetch between £1.1m and £1.15m. In his words "I hate to sound like a cheesy estate agent, but the market right now for selling has never been so good". The flat immediately below mine had sold in June for £925,000.

    So you'd need to rent the flat out for about £5,500 a month to make it worthwhile not selling it, assuming you're aiming for the 6% rental yield the estate agents talk about down here in the provinces. Are rental prices that mad?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    antifrank said:

    the flat should now fetch between £1.1m and £1.15m.

    So I doubt anyone with a £600k 'Help to Buy' mortgage will cross your threshold.....

    But good for you for making more money than SeanT!

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TGOHF said:

    Yes - taking the money making powerhouse of London away should have no effect - and not having your own currency won't make much impact on their ability to borrow cheaply...
    Because the UK is doing so well right now isn't it? And every other country in the world not lucky enough to include London is shivering in the outer darkness.

    Pretending that independence is going to lead to a future of sorrow and penury for Scotland is not a strong case for the Union.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Its now become the bog standard response of SNP supporters to their fellow Scots when ever an SNP announcement hangs on such a shoogle peg that its likely to collapse at the first hint of scrutiny.

    I've only ever heard SNP supporters use the "too stupid" description for Scotland; is it some kind of complex amongst you? Or just a lie about what unionists say?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256

    Pretending that independence is going to lead to a future of sorrow and penury for Scotland is not a strong case for the Union.
    No one does - its just the claim that the SNP say the Unionists make when the SNP's sums are challenged - much simpler than engaging in the argument.

    However, the SNP White Paper will 'answer all our questions' - hooray!

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    In a surprise development....the SNP's sums don't add up:

    "Michael Fallon told a fringe meeting at the Tory conference in Manchester

    *tears of laughter*

    In a completely unsurprising development the out of touch tea party tories think Micheal Fallon is going to convince scottish voters.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013

    Yawn.

    Too wee, too poor, too stupid.

    Not got any new ones?
    Obviously not or they wouldn't shriek so loudly when such pitiful scaremongering gets called out. Project fear and No is intent on rerunning the 2011 scottish elections. They even brought Iain Gray and his greatest hits back for it.

    Shame that scottish labour's tory chums don't remember what happened in 2011.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    So you'd need to rent the flat out for about £5,500 a month to make it worthwhile not selling it, assuming you're aiming for the 6% rental yield the estate agents talk about down here in the provinces. Are rental prices that mad?
    I'm being quoted a rental of £850 per week. I'm told that rentals have actually softened, as those who want to live in the area are moving to buying rather than renting, with rent being seen as dead money.

    The other part of the question I need to consider is what the property would be worth in a year's time. And whether I want the hassle of being a landlord again. I'm not a very convincing Rigsby.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,097
    Good evening, everyone.

    It'll be interesting to compare the coverage levels of the energy price rises and the very large reduction in petrol prices:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24579046

    The cost of living is more than just energy.

    It'd be nice if the media actually reflected upon our dire financial position or the increasing competitiveness of China, Brazil and India, but I suppose that's too much to hope for.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    tim said:

    What's that got do to with anything, Hunt admitted lying about the years she was in the house.
    Well this story on the BBC from six months later doesn't agree with the Mirror story, nor does it claim he changed his story:

    "Mr Hunt's agent stayed rent free in his constituency property, designated as his second home, three nights a week between November 2005 and June 2007."

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8406130.stm

    The PSC report clears up the difference in dates

    "Mr Hunt claimed a total of £19,117 against the ACA in respect of the property during the period between November 2005 (from when it was designated as his second home) and the retirement of his agent. He did not reduce the claims he made to reflect his agent's use of the property."

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmstnprv/157/15703.htm

    Are you saying he should have declared the dates when he let her stay there occasionally when the house wasn't his second home? And have you got any evidence, other than a Mirror story, about him admitting that he'd lied.

    As I said, I'm sure you wouldn't want to paint a misleading picture, would you?
  • antifrank said:

    Off topic, anyone doubting that there's a bubble in property in parts of London should consider the following anecdote. I'm currently considering whether to let out or sell the flat I'm currently living in (I'm moving upstairs). As part of the decision-making process, I got a couple of estate agents around in August and their view was that I could aim for a sale at £1 million. This week, now being closer to the flat being ready, I got another estate agent round. His view - in full knowledge of what I had previously been told - was that the flat should now fetch between £1.1m and £1.15m. In his words "I hate to sound like a cheesy estate agent, but the market right now for selling has never been so good". The flat immediately below mine had sold in June for £925,000.

    At a much lower level, we are seeing the same thing round here in Leamington. We bought our place a couple of years back for £470k. Smaller houses in the same road are now going for around £520k and we are being bombarded with notes from estate agents asking whether we are looking to sell. Six months ago that wasn't happening.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    Mick_Pork said:

    *tears of laughter*

    In a completely unsurprising development the out of touch tea party tories think Micheal Fallon is going to convince scottish voters.
    He doesn't have to....Nicola does......"reasonable doubt" and all that.....

    I bet you can't wait for the White Paper!

    titters......
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    According to the Guardian BBc thinking about replacing Dimbleby on Election night

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/oct/18/bbc-replacing-david-dimbleby-general-election
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    Mick_Pork said:

    Shame that scottish labour's tory chums don't remember what happened in 2011.
    Or Dunfermline in 2013?

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    IMHO, Andrew Neil has to be the most respected and qualified candidate when it comes to anchoring the BBC GE night coverage.

    Guardian - BBC mulls replacing David Dimbleby as anchor for next general election
    'Question Time host may be moved aside for Huw Edwards or Jeremy Paxman in 2015'
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I wonder how many people would kill themselves if the London property market collapsed.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    See middleenglanders post on the Vote 2012 site .
    I've seen it, thanks. The problem is I used some totals added up by someone else instead of doing it myself.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    fitalass said:

    IMHO, Andrew Neil has to be the most respected and qualified candidate when it comes to anchoring the BBC GE night coverage.

    And the BBC stuck him on a boat in the Thames with Joan Collins in 2010! Says it all really.....

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Seant, congratulations and well done! When do you think your novel will be available to purchase?
    SeanT said:

    fpt

    You've all pricked my conscience. I'll put £100 behind the bar at the next pb do. So you will be FORCED to toast me.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,097
    Mr. 09, welcome to pb.com.

    Huw Edwards is bloody tedious. Andrew Neil's the obvious chap for the job. He won't get it, of course, but he should.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013

    He doesn't have to....Nicola does......
    Does she Indeed?
    BusinessforScotland ‏@BizforScotland 3h

    Latest poll finds that satisfaction with the Scottish Government is +23, 10 point increase since May. (UK Gov -28) http://ow.ly/pWM7B
    Oh dear. So much for the incompetent fops and their comedy spinners.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013

    Or Dunfermline in 2013?

    You're claiming to remember what's happening next week? You been on the sauce a bit early? ;)

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    Antifrank is now about to be assailed by Avery's Yellow Boxes proving that there was no bubble six months ago in Grimsby.

    Antifrank doesn't need to be assailed by a Yellow Box.

    He understands that rents fall as capital values increase.

    See:
    I'm being quoted a rental of £850 per week.    
    I'm told that rentals have actually softened,
    as those who want to live in the area
    are moving to buying rather than renting,
    with rent being seen as dead money.
    Although if I were antifrank, I would take a second opinion on his estate agent's advice. In aggregrate London prices have fallen slightly in the last couple of months. However, so much depends on location and property type that the position in Clerkenwell may well be totally different from elsewhere.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Mr. 09, welcome to pb.com.

    Huw Edwards is bloody tedious. Andrew Neil's the obvious chap for the job. He won't get it, of course, but he should.

    Dimblebore has a fan though.
    There is also the question of who will front the BBC's edition of the televised leadership debates.

    Last time it was Dimbleby and education secretary Michael Gove said on Question Time recently: "There's only one thing about the debates that I would insist on, that you chair them David."

    Dimbleby will be 76 by the time the nation decides the next government but it is unlikely he would give up his anchor role without a fight.

    In 2010 he told the Times: "I am not going to retire voluntarily".
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013
    Things are hotting up in the long expected GOP/tea party meltdown after the comedy of Romney's defeat.
    R Harrington ‏@voter1vote 6m

    The Post-Shutdown GOP Civil War in 23 Quotes ►http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/10/gop-post-shutdown-civil-war … How you say: 'Fight! Fight! Fight!' @cspanwj #wiunion
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    It really should be a total no brainer for the BBC to put Andrew Neil into the anchor chair on GE night. You just have to watch the Daily Politics to see how totally forensic and on top of his brief Neil is, he is on another level when compared to Paxman or Edwards. By far the most interesting and informative journalist/interviewer, and with more than one gear so you come away better informed no matter how inexperienced or wily the interviewee. Again, you can see the interview gear range on This Week.

    And the BBC stuck him on a boat in the Thames with Joan Collins in 2010! Says it all really.....

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    Mick_Pork said:

    You're claiming to remember what's happening next week? You been on the sauce a bit early? ;)

    I thought the SNP had a monopoly on seeing into the future, what with the EU, NATO, currency and so forth!

    So what is your prediction for Dunfermline?

    A Victory for Eck!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    It'll go up by another 100-150k between now and the election, it's too late to stop Bubble Boy Osborne now.

    Sell in Jan 2015 after renting for a year
    Also consider the impact of CGT assessment if you rent.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Tim
    Avery is as usual a splendid counter to the continual misrepresentation of statistics that is so prevalent on this site, especially from you. At least with Avery you know that what he posts is direct from the OBR and other Govt websites, whilst yours are generally misrepresentations and distortions.
    Who to trust eh.. its a difficult one.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013

    I thought the SNP had a monopoly on seeing into the future, what with the EU, NATO, currency and so forth!
    Eck at least knows that he would vote Yes on the Independence referendum yet the incompetent fop Cammie doesn't seem to have a clue which way he and the tories should vote on his Cast Iron EU referendum.

    If Clegg had demanded an AV referendum then claimed not to know which side he supported he would have been laughed out of politics.

    Cammie on the other hand is so terrified of the split in his own party over the EU he can't even tell them which way he and the tory party should vote for his own supposed manifesto commitment. Good luck keeping that farcical pretence up during the EU election campaign.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    tim said:

    ONS statistics show average #house prices have now surpassed their January 2008 peak: http://t.co/pEuZIwmoBB
    Who buys an "average" house?

    Anyone?

    Or do they buy a house in Newcastle, or Hull.......or London?

    "Earlier this month, the Halifax reported that the average price of a house was £170,733, nearly £30,000 short of the peak seen in July 2007."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24533059
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,191
    Mick_Pork said:


    Eck at least knows that he would vote Yes on the Independence referendum yet the incompetent fop Cammie doesn't seem to have a clue which way he and the tories should vote on his Cast Iron EU referendum.

    Isn't that because there have been no membership negotiations, so we don't actually know what we'd be voting for?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    @Mick_Pork - so you can't see as far into the future as next week.....
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    RobD said:

    Isn't that because there have been no membership negotiations, so we don't actually know what we'd be voting for?
    Some actually claim to believe it too. It would have slightly more credence if Cammie could be bothered to say what his 'red lines' actually were. But he won't and we all know why.

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    tim said:




    He posted an apology for misleading his constituents on his website if you can be bothered going and looking, no idea if it's still there.

    "I was one of the first 11 MPs to publish all my expenses online. I have always believed in greater transparency and believe all public servants - including MPs - should be fully accountable for the money they spend on behalf of taxpayers. I no longer claim for a second home and personally bear the additional cost of running a home near parliament as well as in Farnham - something that helps me to be effective both locally and on the national stage.

    You can also see that I am one of the hundred lowest claiming MPs in parliament.

    You can see my most up to date expenses here (just follow the step by step instructions and search for my name).

    When I submitted expenses I did not expect them to be made public. I must therefore apologise for the fact that some of them have been filled in messily. The first few months of any MP elected to parliament for the first time is somewhat chaotic, and filling in expenses claims was not one of my priorities. It may therefore help you to understand them by reading the following explanatory notes which answers some of the most commonly asked questions. This also lists mistakes in my expenses that have been identified to date.

    cont....
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Cont...

    "Prior to the recent election my Liberal Democrat opponent quite naturally tried to make as much of this as possible. This is politics! Quite a number of his claims were inaccurate, though. If you want to hear my side of the story, please read my rebuttals page where I rebutted some of his more outrageous claims.

    The Committee for Standards and Privileges published its report on me in December 2009 concerning the issue of my agent's use of my Farnham home. Essentially I allowed my agent to stay free of charge mid-week to save her having to commute back to Sussex. The report concluded that I did not benefit personally from the arrangement and did not use taxpayers funds to subsidise the local Conservative party. However I accept that because someone else was using the house – albeit free of charge – I should have reduced the amount claimed and so I have offered to repay £9,558.50 accordingly. I am very relieved the investigation is now over - and particularly welcome the confirmation by the committee that this was a misunderstanding of the rules which involved no personal financial benefit to me.

    I have always campaigned for openness and transparency in politics. Read why I think the expenses scandal can be a good thing for democracy in Britain."

    He only apologises "for the fact that some of them have been filled in messily"

    Are you sure you're not trying to mislead people about a prominent Tory?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I think the Halifax figures are skewed to the north and to customers with mortgages, as opposed to cash purchases. I think the ONS would be more accurate.

    If average house prices are back to Jan 2008, alowing five years inflationat 3% PA means that they are down 15% in real terms. Sounds about right, and hardly a bubble, outside Primrose Hill. Primrose Hill may be very desireable due to the proximity of famous author/bloggers and the wealthy Leader of the Opposition. Not my cup of tea though.

    Who buys an "average" house?

    Anyone?

    Or do they buy a house in Newcastle, or Hull.......or London?

    "Earlier this month, the Halifax reported that the average price of a house was £170,733, nearly £30,000 short of the peak seen in July 2007."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24533059
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited October 2013
    Twitter
    Breaking News ‏@BreakingNews 12m
    Rupert Murdoch re-elected 21st Century Fox chairman, despite protests - @Reuters http://trib.in/17yrHRT

    Sean O'Neill ‏@TimesCrime 12m
    #plebgate:KeithVaz has written to HASC witnesses urging end to "press releases + public comments" b4 next wk's mtg: caps a crazy week for me

    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 9m
    @jreedmp: Is there a clinical term for someone who says he wants to do the exact opposite to what he actually does?” Labouring

    Jock Bastard ‏@Jock_Bastard 15m
    As we near the referendum, the SNP's bribes will include free Irn Bru and scotch pies. Provided, of course, if we vote the right way.

    Stuart Burns ‏@stuart621 7m
    Tennents Lager Ad based on Whisky Galore - This is clever too :)http://youtu.be/DbmvdWNxwQA
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,191
    Mick_Pork said:

    Some actually claim to believe it too. It would have slightly more credence if Cammie could be bothered to say what his 'red lines' actually were. But he won't and we all know why.

    I thought that was currently under review by Hague at the foreign office, the balance of powers between the EU and the UK
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013
    Still no sign of this being highlighted by the Cameroonian spinners who mourned every troop death in Afghanistan right up until the tories came to power. What a surprise.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVYzTXyJxpI
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,419
    edited October 2013

    No one does - its just the claim that the SNP say the Unionists make when the SNP's sums are challenged - much simpler than engaging in the argument.

    I seem to remember when polling was done on whether Scotland could succeed as an independent country, the vast majority of the Noes were on the Unionist side. Of course I'm sure none of these big, prosperous geniuses think Scotland is too poor, too wee and too stupid; it must be the thought of N.Korean nukes or not being able to watch Eastenders that' makes them so pessimistic.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    tim said:



    ""She [Ms Chellingworth] has now retired, but I did let her stay at my property in Farnham three nights a week for a few months,"

    http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/local-news/mp-jeremy-hunt-answers-critics-4823658

    He lied, it was three years

    And you've now quoted sources that quote him, without context, saying she'd stayed for several months, one year, three years and now a few months. You also said he admitted lying about it on his website.

    You don't know what he said.

    You do know that he didn't admit lying about it on his website. You also know that he was cleared of deliberately trying to fiddle his expenses.

    But, no doubt, you won't stop trying to mislead people.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    How very dare you! The LotO lives in Dartmouth Park - much more "old money" than the arrivistes of Primrose Hill!

    Primrose Hill may be very desireable due to the proximity of famous author/bloggers and the wealthy Leader of the Opposition.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013
    RobD said:

    I thought that was currently under review by Hague at the foreign office, the balance of powers between the EU and the UK
    This review you mean?
    'Whitehall whitewash' that claims EU is GOOD for Britain: Tory MPs' dismay at Hague's review of Brussels power

    Government study finds membership of the EU is a good thing
    William Hague says reports will inform debate on staying in the EU
    UKIP leader Nigel Farage dismisses it as a 'futile and cynical PR exercise'
    Furious Tory backbenchers question why review was commissioned


    A study that says membership of the European Union is beneficial for Britain was last night branded a ‘Whitehall whitewash’.

    Despite uncovering a catalogue of problems, the Foreign Office review found that the balance of power between Brussels and Westminster was ‘broadly appropriate’.

    The report sparked anger among Tory backbenchers, who questioned why it was commissioned in the first place since the conclusions appear to contradict David Cameron’s policy of renegotiating Britain’s relationship with Brussels.


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2374418/William-Hagues-review-branded-Whitehall-whitewash.html


    It's hardly something the tories will be very keen to bring up during the EU election campaign yet I somehow doubt they will be able to stop it and the whole question of staying IN or OUT featuring very heavily.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    The pre May 2010 shroud wavers are silent.
    As silent as the people who glory in any deaths in the NHS are silent over this

    @SkyNewsBreak: Coroner rules that neglect contributed to the deaths of five elderly residents at the Orchid View care home in West Sussex

    Yes, it would be tasteless to try to score political points over this, but, since you raise it, it's certainly true that the Care Quality Commission put in place by Labour and run by the same Labour-appointed Chief Executive who had previously had responsibility for Stafford, failed abysmally. Fortunately we now have a government which is more interested in addressing problems rather than covering them up.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Telegraph - For sale, the Chinese emperor's £1 million flowerpots
    'Ming dynasty flower pots which were used in a Chinese emperor's palace are about to go on sale in London'
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    ONS statistics show average #house prices have now surpassed their January 2008 peak: http://t.co/pEuZIwmoBB
    House prices in England are now 1.3% higher than their previous 2008 peak, although in Scotland and Wales, prices are still around 5% below their peaks and in Northern Ireland they are 50% below their previous high.

    So a varied picture across the regions, but far more importantly, the ONS Index is measuring changes in nominal values. So even if some properties in some areas have just recently passed their 2008 peaks, this doesn't account for inflation.

    In real terms, house prices have fallen significantly since 2008. Check the Nationwide Real House Prices index for a full series.

    Here is the 2008 comparison in real terms:
    ======================================================
    Nationwide Real House Prices Index
    ------------------------------------------------------
    Trend in
    'Real' 'Real'
    House House House
    Price Prices Price
    ---------- --------------------------------------
    2008 Q1 £179,363 £210,093 £166,935
    2013 Q1 £163,056 £163,056 £191,637
    % inc./(dec.) (7.8%) (22.4%) 14.8%
    ======================================================
    This shows that, at the end of Q1 2013 and as an average across the UK and different types of property, house price values remain well below (-7.8%) what their nominal values were the same point in 2008.

    In real terms the difference is even larger, -23.4%.

    The trend column shows what the difference would have been had both the 2008 and 2013 figures followed the 50 year trend line of real terms property price inflation.

    Although now out of date by at least a single quarter it is obivous that even a 5% across the board increase in prices this year will not go anywhere near closing the massive falls in value caused by the financial crisis.


  • fitalass said:

    Telegraph - For sale, the Chinese emperor's £1 million flowerpots
    'Ming dynasty flower pots which were used in a Chinese emperor's palace are about to go on sale in London'

    Didn't know Ming Campbell was big in China!

    :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    tim said:

    The pre May 2010 shroud wavers are silent.
    As silent as the people who glory in any deaths in the NHS are silent over this

    @SkyNewsBreak: Coroner rules that neglect contributed to the deaths of five elderly residents at the Orchid View care home in West Sussex
    Keep digging chaps:

    "Ms Schofield has also criticised the Care Quality Commission (CQC), which gave the home a "good" rating in 2010, a year before it closed down."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-24579496
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,191
    Mick_Pork said:

    This review you mean?

    Yes. I am sure the review is being used to investigate which powers should be repatriated, given that 'broadly appropriate' is not 'ideal'. ONe would expect that the 'red lines' would be announced prior to the election, if it forms a manifesto commitment.
  • How very dare you! The LotO lives in Dartmouth Park - much more "old money" than the arrivistes of Primrose Hill!

    Primrose Hill doesn't even have its own train station (it closed in 1992). Unless you use, er, Chalk Farm tube station.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    @SeanT - so the arrivistes have more money than "old money"!

    Plus ca change.....
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Carers UK ‏@CarersUK 17 Oct

    Couple scores victory over #bedroomtax: #Carers 'shouldn't be punished' for caring http://www.oldham-chronicle.co.uk/news-features/8/news-headlines/82914/couple-scores-victory-over-bedroom-tax@OldhamChronicle
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    I think the Halifax figures are skewed to the north and to customers with mortgages, as opposed to cash purchases. I think the ONS would be more accurate.

    If average house prices are back to Jan 2008, alowing five years inflationat 3% PA means that they are down 15% in real terms. Sounds about right, and hardly a bubble, outside Primrose Hill. Primrose Hill may be very desireable due to the proximity of famous author/bloggers and the wealthy Leader of the Opposition. Not my cup of tea though.


    Dr. Sox

    The ONS HPI does not yet include 'cash purchases' of property. The reason being that most of the input data is sourced from Mortgage Lenders & Adminstrators Returns (MLARs) to regulatory authorities (formerly FSA now BoE).

    The ONS are reforming the way they compute their HPI and intend to include cash purchase data in the future once a methodology for data capture is agreed.

    I believe the only index to specifically include cash purchase data is that prepared by Acadametrics.

    I would have thought the Land Registry index would do too but apparently value data is only recorded when there is a registered charge on the property by a mortgage lender (need to check this as I got this info from secondary source).

  • SeanT said:

    I discovered recently that Robert Plant has a house in Primrose Hill. As does Jeremy Clarkson.
    Robert Plant is quite old.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Tim
    So typical of you tim, attack the person rather than the veritas, but of course to smear or attack the individual is so typical of you when your weakness is exposed.
    Others may judge the truthfulness of what Avery posts vis a vis you, but I wouldn't bank on anyone believing you over Avery.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,256
    SeanT said:

    I discovered recently that Robert Plant has a house in Primrose Hill. As does Jeremy Clarkson.
    But Dartmouth Park boasts Neil Kinnock and Glenda Jackson.....

    Ironic that Ed's house was previously owned by a pensioner who died in a botched NHS operation....
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    And pay has fallen since then, so affordability is down
    No, tim!

    Nominal pay has increased. With very few postcode excpetions, house prices have fallen in nominal values.

    Real pay has fallen but real house prices have fallen much further.

    There has therefore been an increase in affordability since the financial crash. This especially applies given the fall in interest rates charged on mortgages over the same period.

    I shall spare you the yellow boxes unless challenged.

This discussion has been closed.