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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest YouGov tracker finds the Brexit “wrong” lead over “right” in double figures at record level
With the political process of the UK leaving the EU completely dominating the headlines the latest YouGov brexit tracker has unwelcome news for those who want to follow the referendum result.
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https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1070212719893196805?s=21
Dover will be on his tombstone.
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1070218811629101056?s=21
They've utterly wasted two years.
At least the Europhobes weren't so utterly lazy until after they won.
It has taken a long time but the sensible conservative mps are beginning to take back the party from the ultras
Norway or remain are the likely outcomes and for my part I am comfortable with both
And in all this labour are 2% behind in today's poll.
As for TM she faces decision day on Tuesday. She will either:
Resign
Accept the vote and become collegiate
(and this is a big opportunity for her but out of character)
Plough on and face an immediate vnoc in her and the government
Conversations about immigration are not necessarily confined to Brexit
"In hindsight, do you thing Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU given that the Government has agreed terms which would effectively lead to us staying in and with no future means to leave."
A voter still committed to leaving might well answer "wrong" to that question. It will be wrong to seek to leave until we have a government and parliament that is prepared to do that. Without that the EU can always offer the worst possible terms in the knowledge that it will induce the UK to have second thoughts and provide cover for those who want to ignore a referendum result.
My concern with a 2nd ref / not leaving is that many disaffected right leaning members of the electorate would just see it as an establishment stitch up, and go straight to the nearest would be fascist; whether that's UKIP as it sidles up to Tommy Robinson and the EDL or something that doesn't yet exist. I think the best course for Remain, the country and our democratic norms is to leave, on any terms, and then have a concerted campaign to reenter as soon as possible, with the understanding that that is exactly what Leavers did when they lost and we joined in the first place. I would rather it not be a 40 year campaign, but if that is what it takes I think that's what we should do.
In the event of a 2nd ref I think I'd abstain / book a holiday / hide.
Especially if the headline poll that Brexit was wrong really means Brexit was right but HMG could not run a bath.
I suspect you may have that repeated back to you many times. Hostage to fortune
What would the remain parties do in that circumstance? They have been going around saying that thick people were duped and didn’t have enough information. Not really a rallying cry for supporters
What a bunch of muppets MPs are if “taking back control” is just used to thwart the referendum and continue to allow MPs their cosy lifestyles for simply letting Brussels tell them what to do.
The current bi-polar approach won't wash. They should at least put out a few pdfs explaining what necessary jobs all the immigrants are doing.
David Cameron said pre referendum if we vote leave we leave the single market.
Vote Leave said if we vote leave we leave the single market.
All campaigns on both sides and leading campaigners on both sides unanimously said if we vote leave we leave the single market.
The 2017 manifesto said we leave the single market.
"Norway or remain" are both remaining in the single market.
I’m playing the long game.
We Leave without a deal and we Rejoin within a decade.
Leavers cannot say they weren’t denied democracy and the rest of us can point and laugh at them when things go mammary glands up.
No Deal will destroy them the way the 1939/1940 destroyed the appeasers.
The mps will decide
Leave would have a more difficult pitch - they would be saying "we know that Leaving has proved much more difficult than expected and almost everything we said at the last referendum has been proved wrong but we should go ahead with it anyway.
If we are talking immigration, it is not EU immigration we need to worry about.
https://express.co.uk/news/politics/681564/nick-herbert-eu-referendum
But this is nevertheless why if Parliament agrees a vote it will be deal v remain.
On the assumption the May Deal fails in the Commons (as it seems to be failing in the country as well despite the media blitz and the tour), what then?
As I understand it, the passing of the Grieve Amendment yesterday leaves the ball firmly in the hands of MPs but my confusion stems from the fact for all their supposed power, sovereignty and legitimacy, there seem to be very few options.
Those who blether on about Norway forget the key aspect of Freedom of Movement. I suspect trying to sell a Brexit without ending Freedom of Movement isn't going to end well (those advocating REMAIN in a second referendum also have to get past this thorniest of issues).
As for killing off No Deal, nothing that happened yesterday has accomplished that. If there is no majority in Parliament for any option, then there is no agreement agreed and we leave without an agreement. Parliament voting against a No Deal accomplishes the sum total of bugger all.
Presumably the hope of May and her supporters is the contemplation of imagined disaster (I see Carney has been wheeled out to forecast plagues of locusts and 10% inflation but his credibility is running into the sand as well) will swing the votes back her way. The NIESR numbers didn't look anywhere near as dramatic and if there is some disruption some may well ask why the Government hadn't adequately prepared for the contingency of not achieving a Deal which must always have been a risk (and which should, as in every project, have been properly assessed and analysed).
https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1070218716737003520?s=21
This is not the case.
I think the situation is a hotbed for extreme right wing resurgence in this country. Outside of Brexit, the extreme right is making gains around the world. Leaving on a bad deal will lead to "traitor narratives", not leaving at all would mean the same. And leaving on the terms the populous understand (no deal, out means out, why can't we just leave, etc) would allow for chaos and uncertainty which the far right can exploit. I do not see a good path out.
1) A process argument about voting twice to get it through their thick heads etc
2) A general "everything will work out, it's just Project Fear again" kind of argument, featuring things Remain supporters predicted would happen right after the referendum that didn't
I think Remain would be odds-on but this isn't terrible ground for Leave to fight on.
I get knocked out but I get DUP again.
*eg. JRM, Boris, Redwood, et al.
I just don’t see that in the polling. Corbyn’s leadership ratings have steadily weakened. People can see that Labour are trying to sit on the fence and that is the opposite of leadership. If they were making a strong case of opposition they would look like an alternative government and be way ahead in the polls. I also think there are a large number of Labour voters who gave him the benefit of the doubt last time, and voted labour thinking he was going to get battered in the election. There was also a feeling that Theresa May didn’t need a strong mandate for Brexit, and the Tories couldn’t be trusted with it not to inflict something terrible on domestic policy.
If May did win a VONC and called an election the first thing she should say is that at the last election she asked the electorate for a strong backing to improve her negotiating position with the EU, and it was not given, and it should be given this time for those who want to leave the EU. I went to the barbers this morning and the three barbers were talking about if Article 50 could be revoked so there may be more cut through now?
She loses a censure vote
She loses a Grieve-y vote
She loses a meaningful vote
I get the feeling I know which strategy is more likely from a May led government and which is more likely from a Corbyn led government...
Last time we told you it would be difficult now we can see it’s impossible to leave . Vote remain.
That would go down well
To some degree, simply pointing and laughing at the Brexiteers will be enough.
You think that she will still be there on Sunday?
The self-confessed imbecile.
Interesting that she doesn't say "Fine. We'll obey the sacred will of the Commons and we'll have smiles on our faces as we do it". Theresa May supported Remain and then after Remain lost she said "Brexit means Brexit", and she ensured the populace that she would strive 23 hours a day to achieve it, blah blah. Leadsom and May could both take the line that "Publication means publication".
The way they tried to make Geoffrey Cox their front man is equally unpleasant. He is just one member of the cabinet and government that have been contemptuous of the Commons. He happens to have written the document. That's all. In practice, Leadsom as Leader of the House and Theresa May as prime minister have much more responsibility for the decision than he does. What crap leaders they are. Their government deserves to fall apart.
Spot the way the meme is changing? Whinge whinge whinge. "The Commons' decision was wrong but we'll grudgingly abide by it".
There's obviously going to be a referendum with Remain as an option. The amendment that proposes it may even be on the statute book before the House rises on 20 December.
Anybody who holds an investment in May still being in office on April Fool's Day 2019 is kidding themselves.
Raab put his ideology ahead of the lives of voters.
Raab is worse than Mark Reckless.
But she didn't.
*no idea if Peugeot uses or used Michelin tyres.
This bit is true "the influence of the EU on our laws and democracy were grossly over exaggerated by the Brexit loons. "
This bit is not. "This time we say given the extent of their control leaving is just too difficult. "
The extent of the integration of our economy with our largest trading partner means that leaving is difficult and expensive (which we also said first time round) and the damage outweighs any conceivable benefit
He's still fighting the last war, so to speak, but it all changed yesterday. I wonder how many of the backbench foamers are the same.
The EU are not stopping us leaving. The Brexit shambles is completely self-inflicted because we still do not know what "Brexit" actually is - there are so many versions and no agreement.
The aeroplanes fly in the new European air,
On the edge of that air that makes England of little importance,
And the tides warn bronzing bathers of a cooling star
With half its history done.
Polling showed that those who voted Labour were actually more likely to do so as they thought Labour were more likely to win.
It probably represents a problem in understanding because you feel personally so differently to Corbyn but people weren't voting hoping to lose.
To the other points which I didn't make....
All parties have people who vote for them despite not being enthusiastic about the leader. The idea that Corbyn had this especially and other political leaders throughout time have had only enthusiastic voters who believed in them is nonsense. Labour and the Tories had a similar share of votes cast negatively (against others) in their favour.
For the other parts I liked Corbyn's suggestion that the Daily Mail make it 26 pages next time. The right wing papers should hold no fear for Labour.
On the actual procedure for getting a referendum, I think the simplest way is that the PM cuts a deal with a big enough group of MPs to pass her deal, subject to a binding referendum (with a "remain" option). That way she can blame the referendum on the MPs, and the MPs can blame the necessity for the referendum on her terrible deal. The complication is that the PM could get fired or the government felled at any time during the legislative process, but there must be a reasonable chance that whatever unlucky person ends up with her job finds themselves in the same box.