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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » October 17th Local By-Election Results

Dalston on Carlisle
Result (Change on 2011 local election): Lib Dem 506 (37% +15%), Con 476 (35% -14%), Lab 186 (14% -7%), UKIP 167 (12% +4%), Green 27 (2%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative on a swing of 14.5% from Con to Lib Dem

Read the full story here

Charles

first

TGOHF

Stifford, Clays on Thurrock
Result (Change on 2011 local election): Lab 646 (37% -8%), Con 570 (33% +6%), UKIP 504 (29% +5%), Lib Dem 35 (2% -1%)
Labour HOLD on a swing of 7% from Lab to Con

Ukip hold the key.,,

Slackbladder

Interesting swing away from labour in Thurrock.

That and the rest of the results (or not even standing) show how toxic labour is in the south of the UK.

OblitusSumMe

TGOHF said:

Stifford, Clays on Thurrock
Result (Change on 2011 local election): Lab 646 (37% -8%), Con 570 (33% +6%), UKIP 504 (29% +5%), Lib Dem 35 (2% -1%)
Labour HOLD on a swing of 7% from Lab to Con

Ukip hold the key.,,

Farage visited to help the UKIP campaign there, so that looks like a disappointing result for them.

The Carlisle and Luton results are interesting in terms of the Labour-Lib Dem contest. Doesn't look as one-sided as the national opinion polls suggest.

MikeK

Morning all. This is a great Idea for a Friday morning thread; a colourful rundown of last nights local results. I like it. Especially the purple bits.

Pulpstar

A mixed set of results for all parties. No idea if we can extrapolate to the national level, or even to a constituency level.

Bobajob

Slackbladder said:

Interesting swing away from labour in Thurrock.

That and the rest of the results (or not even standing) show how toxic labour is in the south of the UK.

Another geographically challenged Tory that doesn't realise London is part of the south.

CarlottaVance

Good night for Lib Dem, interesting night for Con, and mid-term, only an ok night for Lab.

MonikerDiCanio

Pulpstar said:

A mixed set of results for all parties. No idea if we can extrapolate to the national level, or even to a constituency level.

The results show that the LDs are far stronger and Labour much weaker than the polls suggest.

CarlottaVance

Bobajob said:

Slackbladder said:

Interesting swing away from labour in Thurrock.

That and the rest of the results (or not even standing) show how toxic labour is in the south of the UK.

Another geographically challenged Tory that doesn't realise London is part of the south.

I won't descend to name calling, but merely observe that pollsters break out 'London' from 'the South'.

TGOHF

OblitusSumMe said:

TGOHF said:

Stifford, Clays on Thurrock
Result (Change on 2011 local election): Lab 646 (37% -8%), Con 570 (33% +6%), UKIP 504 (29% +5%), Lib Dem 35 (2% -1%)
Labour HOLD on a swing of 7% from Lab to Con

Ukip hold the key.,,

Farage visited to help the UKIP campaign there, so that looks like a disappointing result for them.

The Carlisle and Luton results are interesting in terms of the Labour-Lib Dem contest. Doesn't look as one-sided as the national opinion polls suggest.

A bigger disappointment for the voters - 1074 voted Con & Ukip and GOT Labour who polled 646.

Ukip are Labour's biggest friend.

TheScreamingEagles

Time to remember this nugget from Antifrank on Labour in 2010

Labour did appallingly in the south of England. In the south east, south west and eastern England combined, it won 10 seats. There were 197 on offer.

Holding the 32 seats it lost in these regions in 2010 would have made it the largest party instead of the second largest party.

Moreover, in a three party race, it got a smaller percentage of the vote in the south east and the south west (in 139 seats) than the Conservatives managed in Scotland in a four party race (in 59 seats).

Fewer than one in six voters in the south east and the south west voted for Labour. This was a near extinction level event.

OblitusSumMe

TGOHF said:

OblitusSumMe said:

TGOHF said:

Stifford, Clays on Thurrock
Result (Change on 2011 local election): Lab 646 (37% -8%), Con 570 (33% +6%), UKIP 504 (29% +5%), Lib Dem 35 (2% -1%)
Labour HOLD on a swing of 7% from Lab to Con

Ukip hold the key.,,

Farage visited to help the UKIP campaign there, so that looks like a disappointing result for them.

The Carlisle and Luton results are interesting in terms of the Labour-Lib Dem contest. Doesn't look as one-sided as the national opinion polls suggest.

A bigger disappointment for the voters - 1074 voted Con & Ukip and GOT Labour who polled 646.

Ukip are Labour's biggest friend.

You can't be complaining about FPTP can you? AV would almost certainly have seen the Conservative elected in that contest, but you choose to blame UKIP for daring to put up candidates and letting the people choose.

TheScreamingEagles

Cor blimey.

I've just had an idea for a thread, that combines pb's two favourite topics.

Scottish Independence and electoral reform

Slackbladder

Bobajob said:

Slackbladder said:

Interesting swing away from labour in Thurrock.

That and the rest of the results (or not even standing) show how toxic labour is in the south of the UK.

Another geographically challenged Tory that doesn't realise London is part of the south.

Most people would consider London separate from 'Southern England', as it pretty much a region in it's own right.

Goes to show PB Kinnocks not understanding the south....again.

Plato

Is there anyone not striking in the public sector?

Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak
Probation Officers have voted overwhelmingly in favour of taking strike action over Government's plans to privatise the service

Pulpstar

OblitusSumMe said:

TGOHF said:

OblitusSumMe said:

TGOHF said:

Stifford, Clays on Thurrock
Result (Change on 2011 local election): Lab 646 (37% -8%), Con 570 (33% +6%), UKIP 504 (29% +5%), Lib Dem 35 (2% -1%)
Labour HOLD on a swing of 7% from Lab to Con

Ukip hold the key.,,

Farage visited to help the UKIP campaign there, so that looks like a disappointing result for them.

The Carlisle and Luton results are interesting in terms of the Labour-Lib Dem contest. Doesn't look as one-sided as the national opinion polls suggest.

A bigger disappointment for the voters - 1074 voted Con & Ukip and GOT Labour who polled 646.

Ukip are Labour's biggest friend.

You can't be complaining about FPTP can you? AV would almost certainly have seen the Conservative elected in that contest, but you choose to blame UKIP for daring to put up candidates and letting the people choose.

http://femaleimagination.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/no-to-av-london-april-15-007.jpg !

isam

Disappointing for the 16/1 GE2015 bet that UKIP didn't do a little better in Thurrock. Less disappointing for the party to get 28% I suppose.

At least there is a decent level of support in the area, UKIP got 7.4% in GE 2010

surbiton

Congratulations to Mike, Mark, Stodge etc. Very good night for the Liberal Democrats.

The LD comeback can be traced from the day they scuppered the boundary review. It emboldened them from that day and they realised, albeit belatedly, that they were equal partners in a coalition since the Tories could do nothing without their consent. Free Milk in Schools for Married Couple Allowance for some.

Ironically, Fitalass came to an almost exactly opposite conclusion !

TGOHF

OblitusSumMe said:

TGOHF said:

OblitusSumMe said:

TGOHF said:

Stifford, Clays on Thurrock
Result (Change on 2011 local election): Lab 646 (37% -8%), Con 570 (33% +6%), UKIP 504 (29% +5%), Lib Dem 35 (2% -1%)
Labour HOLD on a swing of 7% from Lab to Con

Ukip hold the key.,,

Farage visited to help the UKIP campaign there, so that looks like a disappointing result for them.

The Carlisle and Luton results are interesting in terms of the Labour-Lib Dem contest. Doesn't look as one-sided as the national opinion polls suggest.

A bigger disappointment for the voters - 1074 voted Con & Ukip and GOT Labour who polled 646.

Ukip are Labour's biggest friend.

You can't be complaining about FPTP can you? AV would almost certainly have seen the Conservative elected in that contest, but you choose to blame UKIP for daring to put up candidates and letting the people choose.

I'm not complaining - I'm not living under a Labour councillor due to supporting a Ukip candidate - what leave the EU policy was he going to achieve on the town council ? - rip down any "Twinned with...." signs outside the town ?

surbiton

TGOHF said:

OblitusSumMe said:

TGOHF said:

Stifford, Clays on Thurrock
Result (Change on 2011 local election): Lab 646 (37% -8%), Con 570 (33% +6%), UKIP 504 (29% +5%), Lib Dem 35 (2% -1%)
Labour HOLD on a swing of 7% from Lab to Con

Ukip hold the key.,,

Farage visited to help the UKIP campaign there, so that looks like a disappointing result for them.

The Carlisle and Luton results are interesting in terms of the Labour-Lib Dem contest. Doesn't look as one-sided as the national opinion polls suggest.

A bigger disappointment for the voters - 1074 voted Con & Ukip and GOT Labour who polled 646.

Ukip are Labour's biggest friend.

I think FPTP provides for a more stable government even though I didn't vote for it !!!

JosiasJessop

As this is actual results, and not a single poll, I can comment.

Firstly, thanks for providing the results - they're really useful.

Secondly, the Lib Dems don't seem to be doing as badly in actual, real local results as they are in the national polling - it would be good for someone to repost national vote shares that are occasionally posted, although care obviously needs to be taken with them.

So is it:
1) Just the random variation of where the votes are being held,
2) The fact the Lib Dems are stronger in local areas than as a national organisation, or
3) Are the national polls radically underestimating how many people will vote Lib Dem?

surbiton

isam said:

Disappointing for the 16/1 GE2015 bet that UKIP didn't do a little better in Thurrock. Less disappointing for the party to get 28% I suppose.

At least there is a decent level of support in the area, UKIP got 7.4% in GE 2010

It is not disappointing at all. Ideally UKIP should get lots of votes across the country. Like a sandwich filler. I was banking on 6% at the GE2015. I may have to revise my projection upwards by a point or two. They are proving to be quite stubborn.

JackW

MikeK said:

Morning all. This is a great Idea for a Friday morning thread; a colourful rundown of last nights local results. I like it. Especially the purple bits.

Kindly keep your "purple bits" under wraps. There are clinics for that sort of personal affliction !!

Plato

What are the top line measures in Lords Reform II Bill? Labour are now voting in favour of it along with HMG

MarkSenior

As I posted last night , the Chichester Westbourne result was very poor for UKIP . They had won easily the larger West Sussex CC The Bournes division in May . The Conservative elected yesterday was in fact the previous CC defeated in May . The turnout was very very low despite the weather being very balmy all day here in West Sussex .

david_herdson

OblitusSumMe said:

TGOHF said:

Stifford, Clays on Thurrock
Result (Change on 2011 local election): Lab 646 (37% -8%), Con 570 (33% +6%), UKIP 504 (29% +5%), Lib Dem 35 (2% -1%)
Labour HOLD on a swing of 7% from Lab to Con

Ukip hold the key.,,

Farage visited to help the UKIP campaign there, so that looks like a disappointing result for them.

The Carlisle and Luton results are interesting in terms of the Labour-Lib Dem contest. Doesn't look as one-sided as the national opinion polls suggest.

Any party / candidate who finishes third with 29% of the vote can feel a little disappointed with their placing. 29% would usually be easily enough for second place in most contests and in rare cases, enough to win (though not in the kind of election in Thurrock where there were only three serious candidates).

TGOHF

Plato said:

Is there anyone not striking in the public sector?

Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak
Probation Officers have voted overwhelmingly in favour of taking strike action over Government's plans to privatise the service

Lets be honest - they are trying to knock down the economic recovery.

Purely political.

Even Labour MPs agree they are a bad influence on the country.

http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2013/10/united-in-calamity/

"Unite’s over-riding problem is that its leadership has chosen to put politics, pseudo-ideology and career self-interest above the interests of Unite members. Unite has completely lost it focus; it’s raison d’etre even.

Unite is now powerless over workers pay and conditions in Grangemouth and unable to shift the dominant public perception that at the top it is a corrupted organisation whose highly-paid senior officials come first and whose members come last."

Theuniondivvie

tim said:

"Does Jo Swinson hate women?"

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/cristinaodone/100241963/does-jo-swinson-hate-women/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Some choice quotes.

"Pregnancy, as Jo Swinson should have made it her business to know, presents special medical challenges."

"Other women, less healthy, older, or less sturdily built, may suffer the consequences of Swinson's views."

Odone yet again manages to hammer in the dim-witted, round peg of her opinion into the square hole of fact. It's a living I suppose.

'Drabcity
24 minutes ago
Looks like poor Christine is suffering from 'nappy-brain'. I can't see any evidence anywhere that Jo Swinson said men who stand up for a pregnant woman are sexist'

JackW

JosiasJessop said:

As this is actual results, and not a single poll, I can comment.

Firstly, thanks for providing the results - they're really useful.

Secondly, the Lib Dems don't seem to be doing as badly in actual, real local results as they are in the national polling - it would be good for someone to repost national vote shares that are occasionally posted, although care obviously needs to be taken with them.

So is it:
1) Just the random variation of where the votes are being held,
2) The fact the Lib Dems are stronger in local areas than as a national organisation, or
3) Are the national polls radically underestimating how many people will vote Lib Dem?

Important points JJ

The on going local elections do seem to bolster the theory that the yellow peril are holding up much better in their enclaves whereas their support in weaker areas has largely collapsed.

If true, and I believe it to be so, it would indicate that a GE poll of 14-16% would still return a large block of their old seats, probably in the 35-45 range.

Plato

Blimey!

I gather the owners have lost £20m so far in the dispute.

TGOHF said:

Plato said:

Is there anyone not striking in the public sector?

Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak
Probation Officers have voted overwhelmingly in favour of taking strike action over Government's plans to privatise the service

Lets be honest - they are trying to knock down the economic recovery.

Purely political.

Even Labour MPs agree they are a bad influence on the country.

http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2013/10/united-in-calamity/

"Unite’s over-riding problem is that its leadership has chosen to put politics, pseudo-ideology and career self-interest above the interests of Unite members. Unite has completely lost it focus; it’s raison d’etre even.

Unite is now powerless over workers pay and conditions in Grangemouth and unable to shift the dominant public perception that at the top it is a corrupted organisation whose highly-paid senior officials come first and whose members come last."

david_herdson

JosiasJessop said:

As this is actual results, and not a single poll, I can comment.

Firstly, thanks for providing the results - they're really useful.

Secondly, the Lib Dems don't seem to be doing as badly in actual, real local results as they are in the national polling - it would be good for someone to repost national vote shares that are occasionally posted, although care obviously needs to be taken with them.

So is it:
1) Just the random variation of where the votes are being held,
2) The fact the Lib Dems are stronger in local areas than as a national organisation, or
3) Are the national polls radically underestimating how many people will vote Lib Dem?

1. Not really. The Lib Dems are doing reasonably well where they've worked the ward and terribly where they haven't. There are plenty of sub-5% scores as well as holds and gains.

2. Yes. They're also stronger in local government than at a national level, consistently polling better in real local elections (by-elections and in the May elections), than their parliamentary opinion polls suggest they should. For local by-elections, Lib Dem activists probably also concentrate their forces more effectively than other parties overall, though that's a big generalisation.

3. Polls are snapshots not predictions. They don't seek to estimate how many people will vote Lib Dem in 2015 but how many would do so were a vote held today. What I think it does suggest is that polls that ask about what people would do should come with the rider "in your constituency", as local matters count.

Charles

@ Roger FPT

I haven't had time to go back through the posts to figure out the underlying question in your spat with Josias

The main impact of a low share price on investment plans is confidence related. If investors are not confident about the future (and therefore the share price is low) it is not the most propitious time to make major investments. This is partly because they won't necessarily see the value / negatively minded investors may mark down the share price based on risk and partly because they will be more focused on near term earnings to try and drive the share price higher

Slackbladder

I would put it down a lot to the lib dems in local government being able much more to distance themselves from Westminster..

Rather harder to do that at a general election.

TGOHF

tim said:

@TGOHF

Probation officers aren't represented by Unite, there's a clue in the name.
National Association of Probation Officers (NAPO)

Peoples Judean Front / Peoples Front of Judea...

Eric Joyce is a member of the tea party ? Interesting..

Charles

tim said:

@TGOHF

Probation officers aren't represented by Unite, there's a clue in the name.
National Association of Probation Officers (NAPO)

But your Tea Party view that they are also the enemy within does nothing but damage the Tories so don't let me stop you.

TGOHF never said they were.

TGOHF

tim said:

TGOHF said:

tim said:

@TGOHF

Probation officers aren't represented by Unite, there's a clue in the name.
National Association of Probation Officers (NAPO)

Peoples Judean Front / Peoples Front of Judea...

Proving my point nicely.
Smart Tories know that they need to appeal to trade unionists, PB Tories don't.

I'm sure the polling on probation services privatisation will, as ever, prove what a small percentage of extremists you stand for.

What point ? You had a point ? I thought the point was you were furious at the collaborator Joyce ?

isam

david_herdson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

TGOHF said:

Stifford, Clays on Thurrock
Result (Change on 2011 local election): Lab 646 (37% -8%), Con 570 (33% +6%), UKIP 504 (29% +5%), Lib Dem 35 (2% -1%)
Labour HOLD on a swing of 7% from Lab to Con

Ukip hold the key.,,

Farage visited to help the UKIP campaign there, so that looks like a disappointing result for them.

The Carlisle and Luton results are interesting in terms of the Labour-Lib Dem contest. Doesn't look as one-sided as the national opinion polls suggest.

Any party / candidate who finishes third with 29% of the vote can feel a little disappointed with their placing. 29% would usually be easily enough for second place in most contests and in rare cases, enough to win (though not in the kind of election in Thurrock where there were only three serious candidates).

Did Farage visit Thurrock to help the campaign?

I know he visited Dartford in the summer to campaign for the bridge toll to be scrapped, a campaign which will be a vote winner in Thurrock one presumes, but didn't know he campaigned in Thurrock for this by election.

EDIT: He did!

http://www.thurrockgazette.co.uk/news/10685194.Farage_talks_general_election_during_Thurrock_visit/

JackW

Slackbladder said:

I would put it down a lot to the lib dems in local government being able much more to distance themselves from Westminster..

Rather harder to do that at a general election.

That's partially true but of course the LibDems held Eastleigh under difficult circumstances which is unusual for a governing party.

I'd estimate the LibDems will throw the kitchen sink at around 70 seats and almost completely forget the rest.

TheWatcher

Plato said:

Blimey!

I gather the owners have lost £20m so far in the dispute.

TGOHF said:

Plato said:

Is there anyone not striking in the public sector?

Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak
Probation Officers have voted overwhelmingly in favour of taking strike action over Government's plans to privatise the service

Lets be honest - they are trying to knock down the economic recovery.

Purely political.

Even Labour MPs agree they are a bad influence on the country.

http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2013/10/united-in-calamity/

"Unite’s over-riding problem is that its leadership has chosen to put politics, pseudo-ideology and career self-interest above the interests of Unite members. Unite has completely lost it focus; it’s raison d’etre even.

Unite is now powerless over workers pay and conditions in Grangemouth and unable to shift the dominant public perception that at the top it is a corrupted organisation whose highly-paid senior officials come first and whose members come last."

' It’s undisputed that Deans did recruit many Grangemouth workers into the Labour Party over a very short time period, and the Union’s leadership has made clear that his purpose was indeed to dominate the local Labour selection process. '

Oh dear. That was an expensive membership drive.

CarlottaVance

Are this & the Carmichael thread running in parallel? I've now got the Carmichael thread as the 'newer' one......anyway, there's a ding dong going on over there between Pork & OGH, so its more fun here.....

Charles

tim said:

Charles said:

tim said:

@TGOHF

Probation officers aren't represented by Unite, there's a clue in the name.
National Association of Probation Officers (NAPO)

But your Tea Party view that they are also the enemy within does nothing but damage the Tories so don't let me stop you.

TGOHF never said they were.

"Peoples Judean Front / Peoples Front of Judea..."

He won't have known either way will he, but it doesn't matter, the Tea Party PB Tory despises working people who belong to unions

I doubt that is true. They probably despise the leadership of the public sector unions, but that won't extend to the ordinary members.

Charles

tim said:

Charles said:

tim said:

Charles said:

tim said:

@TGOHF

Probation officers aren't represented by Unite, there's a clue in the name.
National Association of Probation Officers (NAPO)

But your Tea Party view that they are also the enemy within does nothing but damage the Tories so don't let me stop you.

TGOHF never said they were.

"Peoples Judean Front / Peoples Front of Judea..."

He won't have known either way will he, but it doesn't matter, the Tea Party PB Tory despises working people who belong to unions

I doubt that is true. They probably despise the leadership of the public sector unions, but that won't extend to the ordinary members.

Unite is massively private sector, keep digging.

Making a general point on views on unions as a whole. Not Unite specifically.

Do you have a break down of membership for the big unions? I know the aggregate membership is significantly weighted to the public sector but don't know on an individual union level

MikeSmithson

Please post on the Carmichael thread which is now at the top

david_herdson

JackW said:

Slackbladder said:

I would put it down a lot to the lib dems in local government being able much more to distance themselves from Westminster..

Rather harder to do that at a general election.

That's partially true but of course the LibDems held Eastleigh under difficult circumstances which is unusual for a governing party.

I'd estimate the LibDems will throw the kitchen sink at around 70 seats and almost completely forget the rest.

They did hold Eastleigh, but against the other governing party - also an unusual situation - and with the lowest winning by-election vote share in more than 60 years. A win is a win and counts just the same in the Commons, but it's not a model for repeated success across the country.