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SystemSystem Posts: 12,993
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chances of the UK leaving the EU on March 29th are surely greater than 54%

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  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,910
    > Also the Electoral Commission has declared that it needs 5 or 6 months notice for such a major vote to take place and that takes us to a late spring at the earliest.

    I think that's an over-statement: They say they recommend 6 months notice or so, but stress that it's not a legal requirement.

    That said, I agree that at this point a referendum probably requires an Article 50 extension. I think you can actually turn this on its head as an argument why there will be a referendum, because assuming she wants to remain PM, a referendum may well be the only way TMay *can* get an extension. She talks like she doesn't want a referendum, but if she wants to hang onto her job, she can't get her deal through parliament, and she's not prepared for No Deal, then...
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