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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Defying the odds Theresa ploughs on

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Defying the odds Theresa ploughs on

It has been observed many times before that the the prime minister, Mrs May, is a remarkably resilient person able to go forward when all seems doomed. Who would have thought in the aftermath of the 2017 General Election debacle that eighteen months on she would still be in Number 10 and be on the brink of securing agreement on the deal that takes Britain out of the EU?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Prime - but not for much longer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Second... and nice painting :p
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1069582502468222976
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    4th unlike Spurs but our time will come
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,154
    Nice painting.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    i think i agree with the article up to the word "brink"

    Not sure after that....I just don't see how she kicks the can down the road here.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Quality portrait. Suggests, as all good portraits do, rather more than simply a representative likeness. Top work.
  • partypoliticalorphanpartypoliticalorphan Posts: 361
    Interesting article in Money Week from Matthew Lynn which ends:

    "Two years ago, the costs of no deal were huge. A lot had to be done to prepare for our exit, and the potential for damage was substantial. After Christmas, the costs will be fairly minimal – and if parliament realises that, it makes leaving with no agreement a lot more likely."


    He's reasonably sanguine about matters.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I hope OGH is right - certainly I'm a BOB who just wants life and threads to move on to other matters.....

    AV, yellow taxis, latvian homophobes, cats, Wee eck bun-fights, EICIPM, private pension confiscation, impossible Xmas crosswords, tick tocking, ave it insights, whispering 'don', HIPS,

    basically ABB - anything but brexit.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1069586262120632322
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited December 2018
    The Tory extremists always were dangerous, obsessed with their delusions, and every Tory leader has worked hard to keep them distant from responsibility (hence JRM never trusted with any even junior government job). Cameron's mistake was to think he could see them off without doing the thinking and hard graft to make sure the risk of his strategy backfiring was minimal. Mrs May faces the almost impossible task of trying to get them back into their box whilst having not even a small majority in Parliament. Given the hopelessness of her position she's actually making a reasonable fist of it.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Macron

    23% Approve
    69% Disapprove
    -46% Net

    I think that's all we need to know of our cousins across the water
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    IanB2 said:

    The Tory extremists always were dangerous, obsessed with their delusions, and every Tory leader has worked hard to keep them distant from responsibility (hence JRM never trusted with any even junior government job). Cameron's mistake was to think he could see them off without doing the thinking and hard graft to make sure the risk of his strategy backfiring was minimal. Mrs May faces the almost impossible task of trying to get them back into their box whilst having not even a small majority in Parliament. Given the hopelessness of her position she's actually making a reasonable fist of it.

    It’s not necessarily in the national interest to keep on trying to ensure one’s own survival while undertaking an impossible task, rather than admitting defeat without wasting any more time, then going for a GE/leadership election which might change the parameters.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1069582502468222976

    The cartoon would be more interesting if it had every other politician in the background, saying exactly the same thing Spartacus-like.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167
    Her end has been predicted before, but gravity affects us all eventually
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    RobD said:

    Second... and nice painting :p

    What photoshopping, incredible.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    If May came on TV and said I know this isn't a great deal but I've very worked hard to minimise the consequent damage to the country she'd go up immeasurably in my respect. But as it is all she says is how great it is and will make a success of it so she's just as big a liar as Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg et al.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167
    JosiasJessop said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1069582502468222976

    The cartoon would be more interesting if it had every other politician in the background, saying exactly the same thing Spartacus-like.
    Well quite. One thing I'll Give May and Corbyn is they are not the only ones driving what is going on nor is the choice between them the main divide.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Macron strikes me as completely arrogant.
    I can tolerate people with wildly different political opinions even if they are dislikeable, but arrogance is hard to tolerate.
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Macron

    23% Approve
    69% Disapprove
    -46% Net

    I think that's all we need to know of our cousins across the water

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167
    Polruan said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Tory extremists always were dangerous, obsessed with their delusions, and every Tory leader has worked hard to keep them distant from responsibility (hence JRM never trusted with any even junior government job). Cameron's mistake was to think he could see them off without doing the thinking and hard graft to make sure the risk of his strategy backfiring was minimal. Mrs May faces the almost impossible task of trying to get them back into their box whilst having not even a small majority in Parliament. Given the hopelessness of her position she's actually making a reasonable fist of it.

    It’s not necessarily in the national interest to keep on trying to ensure one’s own survival while undertaking an impossible task, rather than admitting defeat without wasting any more time, then going for a GE/leadership election which might change the parameters.
    And the EU give time for a Tory contest because? A GE at least might change the political factors
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    dixiedean said:

    Quality portrait. Suggests, as all good portraits do, rather more than simply a representative likeness. Top work.

    What you mean is incredibly enhanced , all bags and wrinkles eliminated , such that if you don't see the name you wonder who it is.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Chris_A said:

    If May came on TV and said I know this isn't a great deal but I've very worked hard to minimise the consequent damage to the country she'd go up immeasurably in my respect. But as it is all she says is how great it is and will make a success of it so she's just as big a liar as Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg et al.

    Politics doesn't do nuance, sadly. Such a statement would be ruthlessly exploited by her enemies. And by the opposition.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    Quality portrait. Suggests, as all good portraits do, rather more than simply a representative likeness. Top work.

    What you mean is incredibly enhanced , all bags and wrinkles eliminated , such that if you don't see the name you wonder who it is.
    Good lord. It’s a painting, not a photo.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Fenster said:

    Macron strikes me as completely arrogant.
    I can tolerate people with wildly different political opinions even if they are dislikeable, but arrogance is hard to tolerate.

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Macron

    23% Approve
    69% Disapprove
    -46% Net

    I think that's all we need to know of our cousins across the water

    A miniature French Trump
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    kle4 said:

    Polruan said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Tory extremists always were dangerous, obsessed with their delusions, and every Tory leader has worked hard to keep them distant from responsibility (hence JRM never trusted with any even junior government job). Cameron's mistake was to think he could see them off without doing the thinking and hard graft to make sure the risk of his strategy backfiring was minimal. Mrs May faces the almost impossible task of trying to get them back into their box whilst having not even a small majority in Parliament. Given the hopelessness of her position she's actually making a reasonable fist of it.

    It’s not necessarily in the national interest to keep on trying to ensure one’s own survival while undertaking an impossible task, rather than admitting defeat without wasting any more time, then going for a GE/leadership election which might change the parameters.
    And the EU give time for a Tory contest because? A GE at least might change the political factors
    Re leadership change, I was thinking more of some time in the last 2 years when it became clear that the need to pander to faction of her party made it impossible to proceed with sensible negotiations or even to be honest about the no-deal planning needed to use that as a credible negotiating threat. She’s now successfully run down the clock on the leadership challenge, thereby removing one of the ways we could have got to a better position right now.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    edited December 2018
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    Quality portrait. Suggests, as all good portraits do, rather more than simply a representative likeness. Top work.

    What you mean is incredibly enhanced , all bags and wrinkles eliminated , such that if you don't see the name you wonder who it is.
    Good lord. It’s a painting, not a photo.
    Rob, no excuse for not showing the reality. Must have been some bung to get it so enhanced. I could hardly recognise who it was.
    PS: Kardashian photos are more realistic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    I heard rumour of a Johnson vs Blair debate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Polruan said:

    kle4 said:

    Polruan said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Tory extremists always were dangerous, obsessed with their delusions, and every Tory leader has worked hard to keep them distant from responsibility (hence JRM never trusted with any even junior government job). Cameron's mistake was to think he could see them off without doing the thinking and hard graft to make sure the risk of his strategy backfiring was minimal. Mrs May faces the almost impossible task of trying to get them back into their box whilst having not even a small majority in Parliament. Given the hopelessness of her position she's actually making a reasonable fist of it.

    It’s not necessarily in the national interest to keep on trying to ensure one’s own survival while undertaking an impossible task, rather than admitting defeat without wasting any more time, then going for a GE/leadership election which might change the parameters.
    And the EU give time for a Tory contest because? A GE at least might change the political factors
    Re leadership change, I was thinking more of some time in the last 2 years when it became clear that the need to pander to faction of her party made it impossible to proceed with sensible negotiations or even to be honest about the no-deal planning needed to use that as a credible negotiating threat. She’s now successfully run down the clock on the leadership challenge, thereby removing one of the ways we could have got to a better position right now.
    It's never 'quite the right time' to get rid of her....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Pulpstar said:

    I heard rumour of a Johnson vs Blair debate.

    Clash of the has beens
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    malcolmg said:

    Fenster said:

    Macron strikes me as completely arrogant.
    I can tolerate people with wildly different political opinions even if they are dislikeable, but arrogance is hard to tolerate.

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Macron

    23% Approve
    69% Disapprove
    -46% Net

    I think that's all we need to know of our cousins across the water

    A miniature French Trump
    Only less popular
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited December 2018
    malcolmg said:

    glw said:

    notme said:

    Considering child poverty is lower now than when they took office, that the changes to personal allowances and national living wage means those earning at the bottom have seen their wages rise quicker, oh and there's absolutely *ZERO* evidence to suggest that there's been any increase in undernourishment rates amongst children.

    But facts don't fit the "evil milk-stealing Tory" trope.
    LOL, Tories and facts are strangers, you fan boys of CCHQ mouth the lies you are spouted from the nasty party. Ask your servants how they are doing.

    FPT
    You should be careful who you call a liar.

    This a document that pulls together the stats on poverty and inequality.
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/691917/households-below-average-income-1994-1995-2016-2017.pdf

    Here is a chart from the national child measuring programme that measure obesity and undernourished children in reception and year six.

    The black line is the base line for England, no material change.

    https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/national-child-measurement-programme/data#page/4/gid/8000011/pat/6/par/E12000002/ati/102/are/E10000006/iid/90316/age/200/sex/4

    Dont call people liars unless you can stack it up.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/journodave/status/1069595823598649344
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Chris_A said:

    If May came on TV and said I know this isn't a great deal but I've very worked hard to minimise the consequent damage to the country she'd go up immeasurably in my respect. But as it is all she says is how great it is and will make a success of it so she's just as big a liar as Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg et al.

    That was the actual bit of honesty we saw in the original campaign about the EU, it was Corbyn who to paraphrase said "they're bit shit, but its probably on balance better to stay in".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167
    edited December 2018
    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I heard rumour of a Johnson vs Blair debate.

    Clash of the has beens
    Johnson never was. Like or loathe Blair he at least made it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    FPT it's certainly not "absolute garbage" to say that Inner and Outer London have different political cultures.

    Inner London voted 72% Remain, Outer London voted 54%.

    Inner London has 3 Conservative MPs and 23 Labour.; Outer London has 18 Conservative and 26 Labour.

    Inner London has 136 Conservative councillors to 539 Labour. Other London has 375 to 584.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167
    Pulpstar said:

    Polruan said:

    kle4 said:

    Polruan said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Tory extremists always were dangerous, obsessed with their delusions, and every Tory leader has worked hard to keep them distant from responsibility (hence JRM never trusted with any even junior government job). Cameron's mistake was to think he could see them off without doing the thinking and hard graft to make sure the risk of his strategy backfiring was minimal. Mrs May faces the almost impossible task of trying to get them back into their box whilst having not even a small majority in Parliament. Given the hopelessness of her position she's actually making a reasonable fist of it.

    It’s not necessarily in the national interest to keep on trying to ensure one’s own survival while undertaking an impossible task, rather than admitting defeat without wasting any more time, then going for a GE/leadership election which might change the parameters.
    And the EU give time for a Tory contest because? A GE at least might change the political factors
    Re leadership change, I was thinking more of some time in the last 2 years when it became clear that the need to pander to faction of her party made it impossible to proceed with sensible negotiations or even to be honest about the no-deal planning needed to use that as a credible negotiating threat. She’s now successfully run down the clock on the leadership challenge, thereby removing one of the ways we could have got to a better position right now.
    It's never 'quite the right time' to get rid of her....
    It should have been months ago if they were this set against the direction. It wasn't that much of a surprise.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited December 2018
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    malcolmg said:

    Fenster said:

    Macron strikes me as completely arrogant.
    I can tolerate people with wildly different political opinions even if they are dislikeable, but arrogance is hard to tolerate.

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Macron

    23% Approve
    69% Disapprove
    -46% Net

    I think that's all we need to know of our cousins across the water

    A miniature French Trump
    Only less popular
    Macron can only dream of having Trump’s approval ratings. :p
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167
    notme said:

    Chris_A said:

    If May came on TV and said I know this isn't a great deal but I've very worked hard to minimise the consequent damage to the country she'd go up immeasurably in my respect. But as it is all she says is how great it is and will make a success of it so she's just as big a liar as Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg et al.

    That was the actual bit of honesty we saw in the original campaign about the EU, it was Corbyn who to paraphrase said "they're bit shit, but its probably on balance better to stay in".
    I always said our next prime minister could do nuance.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,742
    I think May will win the vote by around 150.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited December 2018
    Far too many in parliament seem to be treating it all as some sort of parlour game, or dissertation on theoretical economics.
    Do they realise the uncertainty is holding back investment and other decisions ?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Let us not forget that one of the prime authors of the CON GE2017 mess was the then Brexit Secretary David Davis. He was the one who was strongly arguing the case for calling an early election and yet in reputational terms he apparently got off scot-free

    He would have done it differently is will be his defence. That he has the triple cocktail of being a charisma vacuum, lacks an eye for detail and is a high level muck spreader is neither here nor there.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    williamglenn said:

    I think May will win the vote by around 150.

    Confidence vote, I assume?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    Excellent portrait

    The select committee have been told by the Brexit Secretary that at the end of transistion UK gains control of its coastal waters, and in the event of the backstop EU companies will litigate the EU as Northern Ireland gains tariff free and access free to its markets, and that while the political declaration itself is not legal it is cross referenced in the WDA effectively binding the EU into negotiating in good will towards a fair FTA which is subject to independent arbitration

    Also France and other Fishing Countries will not be happy to lose their fishing rights at the end of transistion

    In addition any Norway, Canada, or other FTA will require a backstop

    This is interesting detail
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167
    williamglenn said:

    I think May will win the vote by around 150.

    I thought for a second you meant the deal vote ans was about to do a 'are you May in disguise' joke but even she wouldn't believe that. The other possible vote? I think she has a chance of winning it I guess.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167
    Pulpstar said:

    Far too many in parliament seem to be treating it all as some sort of parlour game, or dissertation on theoretical economics.
    Do they realise the uncertainty is holding back investment and other decisions ?

    No, or they don't care if it is. All about preserving or defeating the government. (Ok not all about, but too much of it)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Art history note - great pic. Has got the pre-2017 election look brilliantly.

    Today's picture might be a bit more haunted and unsure, I think.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1069601163966914560
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1069601163966914560

    So be it
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,742
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    I think May will win the vote by around 150.

    I thought for a second you meant the deal vote ans was about to do a 'are you May in disguise' joke but even she wouldn't believe that. The other possible vote? I think she has a chance of winning it I guess.
    No, I do mean the meaningful vote.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    edited December 2018
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Polruan said:

    kle4 said:

    Polruan said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Tory extremists always were dangerous, obsessed with their delusions, and every Tory leader has worked hard to keep them distant from responsibility (hence JRM never trusted with any even junior government job). Cameron's mistake was to think he could see them off without doing the thinking and hard graft to make sure the risk of his strategy backfiring was minimal. Mrs May faces the almost impossible task of trying to get them back into their box whilst having not even a small majority in Parliament. Given the hopelessness of her position she's actually making a reasonable fist of it.

    It’s not necessarily in the national interest to keep on trying to ensure one’s own survival while undertaking an impossible task, rather than admitting defeat without wasting any more time, then going for a GE/leadership election which might change the parameters.
    And the EU give time for a Tory contest because? A GE at least might change the political factors
    Re leadership change, I was thinking more of some time in the last 2 years when it became clear that the need to pander to faction of her party made it impossible to proceed with sensible negotiations or even to be honest about the no-deal planning needed to use that as a credible negotiating threat. She’s now successfully run down the clock on the leadership challenge, thereby removing one of the ways we could have got to a better position right now.
    It's never 'quite the right time' to get rid of her....
    It should have been months ago if they were this set against the direction. It wasn't that much of a surprise.
    Well, quite. The transition period was suggested in October 2017, and the backstop agreed in December 2017. If they were totally unacceptable then, that's when May's critics should have moved. If they were acceptable then, what makes them unacceptable now?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    I think May will win the vote by around 150.

    I thought for a second you meant the deal vote ans was about to do a 'are you May in disguise' joke but even she wouldn't believe that. The other possible vote? I think she has a chance of winning it I guess.
    No, I do mean the meaningful vote.
    Is there anywhere to bet pass/fail?

    I think it's pass. 150? Not so sure. More like 10-20.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    David Davis wasn’t responsible for Mrs May’s complete lack of charisma, complete inability to campaign, obsession with candidate selectionwhich cost the Tories seats in Wales and elsewhere, nor was he responsible for the woeful Manifesto nor the failure to a separate manifestoon devolved matters for Wales.

    Try to throwing mud at David for the 2017 debacle just doesn’t stand up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    TOPPING said:

    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    I think May will win the vote by around 150.

    I thought for a second you meant the deal vote ans was about to do a 'are you May in disguise' joke but even she wouldn't believe that. The other possible vote? I think she has a chance of winning it I guess.
    No, I do mean the meaningful vote.
    Is there anywhere to bet pass/fail?

    I think it's pass. 150? Not so sure. More like 10-20.
    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScOJ1fCDzxdYnCKJfh4OT-IbYU48H7hV-tJoF1RbziAvJNcUQ/viewform

    I've gone for 217 Aye votes. That's what it should be roughly if noone ferrets from their position.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1069603347974549506
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    David Davis wasn’t responsible for Mrs May’s complete lack of charisma, complete inability to campaign, obsession with candidate selectionwhich cost the Tories seats in Wales and elsewhere, nor was he responsible for the woeful Manifesto nor the failure to a separate manifestoon devolved matters for Wales.

    Try to throwing mud at David for the 2017 debacle just doesn’t stand up.

    David Davis is a sore loser ..never got ocer losing to Dave. Hence his loony by election
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    May’s problem is that she completely reneged on the plan outlined in her Lancaster House speech, gave way on all her red lines for no acceptable quid pro quo, betrayed the DUP who are supposed to be herallies and failedto build any kind of consensus for her deal as she went along. She sees Brexit as a matter of immigration control which is risible. May has given the EU all they want and got nothing worthwhile in exchange.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    Most "And....????" BBC "news" page ever?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-46425410
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    SquareRoot said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    David Davis wasn’t responsible for Mrs May’s complete lack of charisma, complete inability to campaign, obsession with candidate selectionwhich cost the Tories seats in Wales and elsewhere, nor was he responsible for the woeful Manifesto nor the failure to a separate manifestoon devolved matters for Wales.

    Try to throwing mud at David for the 2017 debacle just doesn’t stand up.

    David Davis is a sore loser ..never got ocer losing to Dave. Hence his loony by election
    The by-election made no sense but to portray Davis as being in some kind of sulk akin to that of Heath when he lost the leadership to Thatcher is risible.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46425774

    Least suprising news of the day....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    I think May will win the vote by around 150.

    I thought for a second you meant the deal vote ans was about to do a 'are you May in disguise' joke but even she wouldn't believe that. The other possible vote? I think she has a chance of winning it I guess.
    No, I do mean the meaningful vote.
    Is there anywhere to bet pass/fail?

    I think it's pass. 150? Not so sure. More like 10-20.
    https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScOJ1fCDzxdYnCKJfh4OT-IbYU48H7hV-tJoF1RbziAvJNcUQ/viewform

    I've gone for 217 Aye votes. That's what it should be roughly if noone ferrets from their position.
    tx
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1069603347974549506

    Was our side just really bad negotiators? Much of the stuff as a leaver I don’t like, but the main thing is we are out, but this backstop in perpetuity just seems a very unequal power balance to concede on. I’ve heard it quite reasonably aregues in here (but nowhere else) that this back stop is as much a difficulty for the EU as it is for us. It allows us to stay within the customs union without the normal price tag. But how could she possibly have thought she could sell this to the DUP and the constitionalists who would rightly see this as a foreign country having a veto on the actions of parliament.

    It comes across as another tick tock negotiating strategy from the EU in which the desperation to do a deal is asynchronous as time comes closer to the date.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1069601163966914560

    Sounds like it's up to parliament to decide if it falls short or not. But this seems a needless battle from the government.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    malcolmg said:

    dixiedean said:

    Quality portrait. Suggests, as all good portraits do, rather more than simply a representative likeness. Top work.

    What you mean is incredibly enhanced , all bags and wrinkles eliminated , such that if you don't see the name you wonder who it is.
    Well we shall have to agree to disagree.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167
    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    I think May will win the vote by around 150.

    I thought for a second you meant the deal vote ans was about to do a 'are you May in disguise' joke but even she wouldn't believe that. The other possible vote? I think she has a chance of winning it I guess.
    No, I do mean the meaningful vote.
    First attempt?

    I think having been potentially right about us remaining after all you are just seeking ever more outlandish predictions!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/12/03/inenglish/1543830724_862792.html?id_externo_rsoc=FB_CM_EN

    A few months after Sánchez gives the green light to immigrant boats from Africa and guess what?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167
    notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1069603347974549506

    Was our side just really bad negotiators? Much of the stuff as a leaver I don’t like, but the main thing is we are out, but this backstop in perpetuity just seems a very unequal power balance to concede on. I’ve heard it quite reasonably aregues in here (but nowhere else) that this back stop is as much a difficulty for the EU as it is for us. It allows us to stay within the customs union without the normal price tag. But how could she possibly have thought she could sell this to the DUP and the constitionalists who would rightly see this as a foreign country having a veto on the actions of parliament.

    It comes across as another tick tock negotiating strategy from the EU in which the desperation to do a deal is asynchronous as time comes closer to the date.
    Yes it does. I would not be astounded to learn she was relying on assuming some labour votes. In fairness I think Corbyn would not hate that either as it keeps him right out of it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    TOPPING said:

    Art history note - great pic. Has got the pre-2017 election look brilliantly.

    Today's picture might be a bit more haunted and unsure, I think.

    Nothing has changed! That's what I take from the picture. As she steadfastly turns her back on the chaos behind her.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    I think May will win the vote by around 150.

    I thought for a second you meant the deal vote ans was about to do a 'are you May in disguise' joke but even she wouldn't believe that. The other possible vote? I think she has a chance of winning it I guess.
    No, I do mean the meaningful vote.
    First attempt?

    I think having been potentially right about us remaining after all you are just seeking ever more outlandish predictions!
    In order for this prediction to be correct would mean the entire ERG, all 100+ of those who've said they'll vote against the deal, everyone who has resigned in protest at the deal, the DUP, and 50+ Labour MPs on a three line whip against to vote for the deal.

    It's a very, uh, courageous prediction.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,503
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    May’s problem is that she completely reneged on the plan outlined in her Lancaster House speech, gave way on all her red lines for no acceptable quid pro quo, betrayed the DUP who are supposed to be herallies and failedto build any kind of consensus for her deal as she went along. She sees Brexit as a matter of immigration control which is risible. May has given the EU all they want and got nothing worthwhile in exchange.

    May supported Remain. What she appears to be trying to do is keep all the advantages of the Single Market while cutting back on immigration. On which, of course, has some rather unpleasant form.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    OldKingCole said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    May’s problem is that she completely reneged on the plan outlined in her Lancaster House speech, gave way on all her red lines for no acceptable quid pro quo, betrayed the DUP who are supposed to be herallies and failedto build any kind of consensus for her deal as she went along. She sees Brexit as a matter of immigration control which is risible. May has given the EU all they want and got nothing worthwhile in exchange.

    May supported Remain. What she appears to be trying to do is keep all the advantages of the Single Market while cutting back on immigration. On which, of course, has some rather unpleasant form.
    If that's what she's trying to do, she's failed spectacularly, since we'll be leaving the single market, but the future mobility framework is to be decided in the trade negotiations, during which time the EU will have is over a barrel threatening us with a backstop we can never leave.

    It notably and spectacularly fails to achieve any of the goals May set out in her Lancaster House speech or Chequers. The only thing it has achieved is keep May in power (of a sort) for a few more pointless, soul-destroying weeks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited December 2018
    I think we can live in the backstop quite happily forever. Eventually though the EU will tire of it, and give us the hurry up on a FTA. At which point - if we're doing fine economically in the backstop, and I see no reason we wouldn't be - our negotiating position is not too bad at all, certainly better than it is now.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    My fave May images are of those at her constituency count.

    image
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    You can feel her dying inside in real time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    dixiedean said:

    Quality portrait. Suggests, as all good portraits do, rather more than simply a representative likeness. Top work.

    Yes, the country being consumed by flames in the background is a nice artistic touch.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Who's the man in the background of the painting apparently plummeting to his death?

    Is it a metaphor?
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    OldKingCole said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    May’s problem is that she completely reneged on the plan outlined in her Lancaster House speech, gave way on all her red lines for no acceptable quid pro quo, betrayed the DUP who are supposed to be herallies and failedto build any kind of consensus for her deal as she went along. She sees Brexit as a matter of immigration control which is risible. May has given the EU all they want and got nothing worthwhile in exchange.

    May supported Remain. What she appears to be trying to do is keep all the advantages of the Single Market while cutting back on immigration. On which, of course, has some rather unpleasant form.
    Except that she is not keeping all the advantages of the Single Market, particularly for services. A lot of Leavers voted Leave to get rid of some of the EU’s more onerous burdens on business notto be tied in just as closely. All exporters have to comply with the regs of the country to whom they export, whether it be the EU under the Single Market or the US under WTO terms. No need to burden the domestic economy, which is 80% of GDP with those.

    It’s not as though May has an immigration policy worth the name. She hasn’t ended the immigration apartheid between EU and non EU immigration and all she has done is reduce EU immigration and replace it with non EU immigration. Big deal.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    grabcocque said:

    Who's the man in the background of the painting apparently plummeting to his death?

    Is it a metaphor?

    There’s two of them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Honorius held on for quite some time. Didn't do the Empire much good.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    According to the ERG, the original legal advice to the cabinet was just six pages long. So Labour are getting more than they asked for!

    Perhaps the original was embarrassingly thin, rather than containing embarrassing stuff.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    edited December 2018
    grabcocque said:

    Who's the man in the background of the painting apparently plummeting to his death?

    Is it a metaphor?

    It's Jacob Rees-Mogg, plummeting into the fires of hell.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pulpstar said:

    I think we can live in the backstop quite happily forever. Eventually though the EU will tire of it, and give us the hurry up on a FTA. At which point - if we're doing fine economically in the backstop, and I see no reason we wouldn't be - our negotiating position is not too bad at all, certainly better than it is now.

    So your thesis is that the EU will suddenly go easy on us? Or that the government will suddenly become competent at negotiating?

    The Withdrawal Agreement is just the easy bit. May has kicked all of the hard questions into more gruelling years of hard negotiation, as the EU unpicks the UK economy, bit by bit, waved on by a pliant and weak Tory prime minister.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    RobD said:

    grabcocque said:

    Who's the man in the background of the painting apparently plummeting to his death?

    Is it a metaphor?

    There’s two of them.
    Oh yeah, so there are. Must be Brexit secretaries.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    According to the ERG, the original legal advice to the cabinet was just six pages long. So Labour are getting more than they asked for!

    Perhaps the original was embarrassingly thin, rather than containing embarrassing stuff.

    I've written to both Anne Main and Kelvin Hopkins, urging them to support the Deal. I think Gavin Shuker and Mad Nad are lost causes
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    grabcocque said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think we can live in the backstop quite happily forever. Eventually though the EU will tire of it, and give us the hurry up on a FTA. At which point - if we're doing fine economically in the backstop, and I see no reason we wouldn't be - our negotiating position is not too bad at all, certainly better than it is now.

    So your thesis is that the EU will suddenly go easy on us? Or that the government will suddenly become competent at negotiating?

    The Withdrawal Agreement is just the easy bit. May has kicked all of the hard questions into more gruelling years of hard negotiation, as the EU unpicks the UK economy, bit by bit, waved on by a pliant and weak Tory prime minister.
    The can kicking was a requirement of A50. The EU constantly say they won’t negotiate until we’re a third party.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    According to the ERG, the original legal advice to the cabinet was just six pages long. So Labour are getting more than they asked for!

    Perhaps the original was embarrassingly thin, rather than containing embarrassing stuff.

    Seems a bit suspicious IMHO. When a document of six pages gets 'summarised' in a document of 52 pages, you know damn well somebody is up to something.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited December 2018
    grabcocque said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think we can live in the backstop quite happily forever. Eventually though the EU will tire of it, and give us the hurry up on a FTA. At which point - if we're doing fine economically in the backstop, and I see no reason we wouldn't be - our negotiating position is not too bad at all, certainly better than it is now.

    So your thesis is that the EU will suddenly go easy on us? Or that the government will suddenly become competent at negotiating?

    The Withdrawal Agreement is just the easy bit. May has kicked all of the hard questions into more gruelling years of hard negotiation, as the EU unpicks the UK economy, bit by bit, waved on by a pliant and weak Tory prime minister.
    If the FTA is negotiated as well as the WA has been then there is nothing to fear. People are opposed to all this because they either think the EU is the spawn of satan or it is the literal incarnation of all that is holy in the universe; I exaggerate slightly - but they're both wrong. May views it rightly as a neutral entitity with which we've become entangled over the last 40 years and now the people by ~ 1.2 million majority or so have voted to leave.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,503
    edited December 2018
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    OldKingCole said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    May’s problem is that she completely reneged on the plan outlined in her Lancaster House speech, gave way on all her red lines for no acceptable quid pro quo, betrayed the DUP who are supposed to be herallies and failedto build any kind of consensus for her deal as she went along. She sees Brexit as a matter of immigration control which is risible. May has given the EU all they want and got nothing worthwhile in exchange.

    May supported Remain. What she appears to be trying to do is keep all the advantages of the Single Market while cutting back on immigration. On which, of course, has some rather unpleasant form.
    Except that she is not keeping all the advantages of the Single Market, particularly for services. A lot of Leavers voted Leave to get rid of some of the EU’s more onerous burdens on business notto be tied in just as closely. All exporters have to comply with the regs of the country to whom they export, whether it be the EU under the Single Market or the US under WTO terms. No need to burden the domestic economy, which is 80% of GDP with those.

    It’s not as though May has an immigration policy worth the name. She hasn’t ended the immigration apartheid between EU and non EU immigration and all she has done is reduce EU immigration and replace it with non EU immigration. Big deal.
    I certainly didn't intend to suggest a degree of competence in what she's doing!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Sean_F said:


    I've written to both Anne Main and Kelvin Hopkins, urging them to support the Deal. I think Gavin Shuker and Mad Nad are lost causes

    Will MPs hold town halls with local members to test the waters?

    Because if ConHome is to be believed, activists are overwhelmingly opposed to the deal.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,503
    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    According to the ERG, the original legal advice to the cabinet was just six pages long. So Labour are getting more than they asked for!

    Perhaps the original was embarrassingly thin, rather than containing embarrassing stuff.

    I've written to both Anne Main and Kelvin Hopkins, urging them to support the Deal. I think Gavin Shuker and Mad Nad are lost causes

    I don't think it's worth writing to Priti Patel.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    grabcocque said:

    Sean_F said:


    I've written to both Anne Main and Kelvin Hopkins, urging them to support the Deal. I think Gavin Shuker and Mad Nad are lost causes

    Will MPs hold town halls with local members to test the waters?

    Because if ConHome is to be believed, activists are overwhelmingly opposed to the deal.
    In short, I 'd be very surprised.

    Its difficult enough to get members to attend an event in December - one scheduled on a couple of days notice is very unlikely.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    grabcocque said:

    Sean_F said:


    I've written to both Anne Main and Kelvin Hopkins, urging them to support the Deal. I think Gavin Shuker and Mad Nad are lost causes

    Will MPs hold town halls with local members to test the waters?

    Because if ConHome is to be believed, activists are overwhelmingly opposed to the deal.
    I've not heard anything.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    OldKingCole said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    According to the ERG, the original legal advice to the cabinet was just six pages long. So Labour are getting more than they asked for!

    Perhaps the original was embarrassingly thin, rather than containing embarrassing stuff.

    I've written to both Anne Main and Kelvin Hopkins, urging them to support the Deal. I think Gavin Shuker and Mad Nad are lost causes

    I don't think it's worth writing to Priti Patel.
    Agreed. And, among the remaining local MPs, Oliver Heald, Alistair Burt, and Andrew Selous will vote in favour.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    Mortimer said:

    grabcocque said:

    Sean_F said:


    I've written to both Anne Main and Kelvin Hopkins, urging them to support the Deal. I think Gavin Shuker and Mad Nad are lost causes

    Will MPs hold town halls with local members to test the waters?

    Because if ConHome is to be believed, activists are overwhelmingly opposed to the deal.
    In short, I 'd be very surprised.

    Its difficult enough to get members to attend an event in December - one scheduled on a couple of days notice is very unlikely.
    My wife and I have written a joint letter to both TM and our local mp supporting her deal

    Anything else will create utter mayhem and we are clear we support this brexit

    What happens next we will all have to wait and see
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    OldKingCole said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    May’s problem is that she completely reneged on the plan outlined in her Lancaster House speech, gave way on all her red lines for no acceptable quid pro quo, betrayed the DUP who are supposed to be herallies and failedto build any kind of consensus for her deal as she went along. She sees Brexit as a matter of immigration control which is risible. May has given the EU all they want and got nothing worthwhile in exchange.

    May supported Remain. What she appears to be trying to do is keep all the advantages of the Single Market while cutting back on immigration. On which, of course, has some rather unpleasant form.
    Except that she is not keeping all the advantages of the Single Market, particularly for services. A lot of Leavers voted Leave to get rid of some of the EU’s more onerous burdens on business notto be tied in just as closely. All exporters have to comply with the regs of the country to whom they export, whether it be the EU under the Single Market or the US under WTO terms. No need to burden the domestic economy, which is 80% of GDP with those.

    It’s not as though May has an immigration policy worth the name. She hasn’t ended the immigration apartheid between EU and non EU immigration and all she has done is reduce EU immigration and replace it with non EU immigration. Big deal.
    The latter is what the Brexit campaign said would and should happen - it's certainly what our Asian community was told by leavers, as a reason for them to support it.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Percentage of Tory members who want May to resign immediately goes > 50%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/12/our-survey-the-proportion-of-party-members-who-want-may-out-now-hits-over-half-for-the-first-time.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    grabcocque said:

    Percentage of Tory members who want May to resign immediately goes > 50%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/12/our-survey-the-proportion-of-party-members-who-want-may-out-now-hits-over-half-for-the-first-time.html

    Survey of ConHome users?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    grabcocque said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    According to the ERG, the original legal advice to the cabinet was just six pages long. So Labour are getting more than they asked for!

    Perhaps the original was embarrassingly thin, rather than containing embarrassing stuff.

    Seems a bit suspicious IMHO. When a document of six pages gets 'summarised' in a document of 52 pages, you know damn well somebody is up to something.
    Summarised by someone paid per line!

  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Mortimer said:

    grabcocque said:

    Sean_F said:


    I've written to both Anne Main and Kelvin Hopkins, urging them to support the Deal. I think Gavin Shuker and Mad Nad are lost causes

    Will MPs hold town halls with local members to test the waters?

    Because if ConHome is to be believed, activists are overwhelmingly opposed to the deal.
    In short, I 'd be very surprised.

    Its difficult enough to get members to attend an event in December - one scheduled on a couple of days notice is very unlikely.
    It's refreshing to hear that even the achingly dull Tory membership have better things to do with their lives in December than attend a crushingly boring meeting about Tessa's Brexit deal. Even Mrs Farty-Pants suet mince pie reception is more inviting.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    notme said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1069603347974549506

    Was our side just really bad negotiators? Much of the stuff as a leaver I don’t like, but the main thing is we are out, but this backstop in perpetuity just seems a very unequal power balance to concede on. I’ve heard it quite reasonably aregues in here (but nowhere else) that this back stop is as much a difficulty for the EU as it is for us. It allows us to stay within the customs union without the normal price tag. But how could she possibly have thought she could sell this to the DUP and the constitionalists who would rightly see this as a foreign country having a veto on the actions of parliament.

    It comes across as another tick tock negotiating strategy from the EU in which the desperation to do a deal is asynchronous as time comes closer to the date.
    Gove argued that very point (first para) on the Marr show.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    notme said:

    malcolmg said:

    glw said:

    notme said:

    Considering child poverty is lower now than when they took office, that the changes to personal allowances and national living wage means those earning at the bottom have seen their wages rise quicker, oh and there's absolutely *ZERO* evidence to suggest that there's been any increase in undernourishment rates amongst children.

    But facts don't fit the "evil milk-stealing Tory" trope.
    LOL, Tories and facts are strangers, you fan boys of CCHQ mouth the lies you are spouted from the nasty party. Ask your servants how they are doing.

    FPT
    You should be careful who you call a liar.

    This a document that pulls together the stats on poverty and inequality.
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/691917/households-below-average-income-1994-1995-2016-2017.pdf

    Here is a chart from the national child measuring programme that measure obesity and undernourished children in reception and year six.

    The black line is the base line for England, no material change.

    https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/national-child-measurement-programme/data#page/4/gid/8000011/pat/6/par/E12000002/ati/102/are/E10000006/iid/90316/age/200/sex/4

    Dont call people liars unless you can stack it up.
    This says different, so rather contradicts the Tory fairy stories

    https://www.jrf.org.uk/data/poverty-levels-and-trends-england-wales-scotland-and-northern-ireland
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-poverty-levels-income-living-standards-child-1998-audit-resolution-foundation-a8460291.html
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/dec/04/uk-government-warned-over-sharp-rise-children-pensioner-poverty-study
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/sep/16/new-study-finds-45-million-uk-children-living-in-poverty
This discussion has been closed.