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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If TMay has to go quickly then, surely, Javid or Hunt should b

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If TMay has to go quickly then, surely, Javid or Hunt should be favourites for “Emergency PM”

She'll never resign. But, this hinges on hunt and javid – the two biggest beasts and leadership frontrunners for emergency PM. If they say time is up then time is up.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Good thread, thanks.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Hammond if May goes quickly and a short term "old pope" is needed, though as OGH's OP notes, Hunt or Javid will still be contenders whenever the vacancy arises, which is probably not true of the Chancellor.

    Best prices on Oddschecker are 66/1 or 50/1 Hammond; 16/1 Hunt; 10/1 Javid.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    The one thing May (and the Cabinet) will want to prevent is Jeremy Corbyn as PM, even if only for 10 days as his anti-Tory rainbow coalition would be unstable at best, so if May is replaced, it could be sudden and before a vote of no confidence.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Hammond if May goes quickly and a short term "old pope" is needed, though as OGH's OP notes, Hunt or Javid will still be contenders whenever the vacancy arises, which is probably not true of the Chancellor.

    Best prices on Oddschecker are 66/1 or 50/1 Hammond; 16/1 Hunt; 10/1 Javid.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

    It's a good point. But Hammond is really unpopular with some people in the Tory party. I would have thought a more neutral non-contender would be preferred if one can be found. Still well worth betting on the chancellor at those odds though.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rkrkrk said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Hammond if May goes quickly and a short term "old pope" is needed, though as OGH's OP notes, Hunt or Javid will still be contenders whenever the vacancy arises, which is probably not true of the Chancellor.

    Best prices on Oddschecker are 66/1 or 50/1 Hammond; 16/1 Hunt; 10/1 Javid.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

    It's a good point. But Hammond is really unpopular with some people in the Tory party. I would have thought a more neutral non-contender would be preferred if one can be found. Still well worth betting on the chancellor at those odds though.
    It depends on whether there is time. There are several different ways this can play out and each has different probabilities associated with it. If Theresa May steps down in a controlled manner so there is time for a contested election, whether or not it goes to the membership, that is one thing. But if May goes quickly to stop the government falling and risking a Labour minority government, then it will likely be a coronation where Hammond would very much be a contender: a grey-ish figure; a safe pair of hands; an experienced pilot who can steer the ship of state through to March or April.

    One thing to be aware of, especially in the next leader markets, is bookmakers' terms generally rule out temporary or caretaker leaders.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    Javid has not signed up to the "Norway pivot" group within Cabinet, as far as I have heard. I suspect that might get him a broader section of MP support.

    When May goes, it will be incredibly febrile and intense - and at this point, unfathomable as to who emerges.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    What's wrong with IDS? Weird for sure but no weider than those two.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    My guess is Gove.

    A shocking choice but it wouldn't be the first. Tory zeitgeist.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505
    I’m on both of these already.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Roger said:

    What's wrong with IDS? Weird for sure but no weider than those two.

    Sorry, can't tell you. The post character limit isn't long enough.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Gove would be the necessary PM. A Leaver to betray Leave. I don't mean he will see the UK stay in the EU after all. Every Leave promise for Brexit will be broken. Gove is capable of those compromises.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    FF43 said:

    Gove would be the necessary PM. A Leaver to betray Leave. I don't mean he will see the UK stay in the EU after all. Every Leave promise for Brexit will be broken. Gove is capable of those compromises.

    The whole problem with Gove is that when he gets an idea in his head he never compromises - not even with reality.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,904
    If the vote is lost badly enough for the PM to be deposed, the new leader will have about as much power as Grand-Admiral Donitz
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the vote is lost badly enough for the PM to be deposed, the new leader will have about as much power as Grand-Admiral Donitz

    Provided the German bookmakers paid out on Donitz, that is good enough for me. Not to mention we must consider what happens as it becomes more apparent to the Prime Minister and the men in grey suits that a vote would be lost, and whether and how they would move to preempt that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited December 2018
    Roger said:

    What's wrong with IDS? Weird for sure but no weider than those two.

    Were you living abroad at the time?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the vote is lost badly enough for the PM to be deposed, the new leader will have about as much power as Grand-Admiral Donitz

    Before he signed the surrender or before he was arrested?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edited December 2018
    Roger said:

    What's wrong with IDS? Weird for sure but no weider than those two.

    IDS has only two flaws.

    1) Everything he says

    2) Everything he does

    Apart from that he’s brilliant.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    On topic it’s the hope that gets you.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Not sure how this impacts on Gibralter and British immigrants to the Costas.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1069482580616060928?s=19
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic it’s the hope that gets you.

    Hunt would sort out my Christmas funds very tidily.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Roger said:

    What's wrong with IDS? Weird for sure but no weider than those two.

    IDS has only two flaws.

    1) Everything he says

    2) Everything he does

    Apart from that he’s brilliant.
    So his being bald was never a problem then?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Does Iain Martin have a track record of correct opinions to justify this? From his Times articles I’d say not - he’s another opinion writer who forgets that earlier predictions and opinions remain easily accessible.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,408
    edited December 2018
    I think you need to treat the next PM and the next Conservative leader as very different markets and the winner in the former market will very much depend on the nature of TMay's departure.

    And if that departure is in the next 3 weeks I suspect the answers could be very different as this will not be a situation where TMay can continue as caretaker leader in the way that Cameron did. Hence whilst I wouldn't go near Hammond for Party Leader I'm happily on him for next PM simply because he deals with detail and isn't going to be there long term...

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic it’s the hope that gets you.

    Pandora's Pox :D
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Gove would be the necessary PM. A Leaver to betray Leave. I don't mean he will see the UK stay in the EU after all. Every Leave promise for Brexit will be broken. Gove is capable of those compromises.

    The whole problem with Gove is that when he gets an idea in his head he never compromises - not even with reality.
    Gove understands the name of the game is to deliver the most pointless, most compromised Brexit and call it success. In this he's way ahead of any other Conservative hopeful.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic it’s the hope that gets you.

    Hunt would sort out my Christmas funds very tidily.
    Would be my biggest win ever also.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited December 2018
    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Gove would be the necessary PM. A Leaver to betray Leave. I don't mean he will see the UK stay in the EU after all. Every Leave promise for Brexit will be broken. Gove is capable of those compromises.

    The whole problem with Gove is that when he gets an idea in his head he never compromises - not even with reality.
    We should be grateful. 99 politicians out of 100 who also knew that Boris would be serious liability as PM would, if already his ally, have kept their heads down and their careers and reputations intact.

    Gove did all of us a huge favour in revealing (edit/ or confirming) the fact of Boris being a bumbling lazy chancer, which so many Tories were about to choose to ignore.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Beverley_C said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic it’s the hope that gets you.

    Pandora's Pox :D
    Very good, but just a bit small for perfection...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Something is cheering the £ up a little this morning?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Foxy said:

    Not sure how this impacts on Gibralter and British immigrants to the Costas.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1069482580616060928?s=19

    Just a few months ago socialist Sánchez gave the green light to immigrants from Africa and Vox surge in the part of Spain directly affected. Qed.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    Hmm... pondering my position on May lasting out the year. If her deal is defeated, presumably she isn't just going to give up and resign immediately? Just so hard to tell.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Foxy said:

    Not sure how this impacts on Gibralter and British immigrants to the Costas.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1069482580616060928?s=19

    I blame that nasty Brexit, causing a surge in xenophobia all across the coun... oh, wait.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,286
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Roger said:

    What's wrong with IDS? Weird for sure but no weider than those two.

    IDS has only two flaws.

    1) Everything he says

    2) Everything he does

    Apart from that he’s brilliant.
    There is also his severely limited capacity for reasoned thought to be taken into consideration, surely ?

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited December 2018
    rkrkrk said:

    Hmm... pondering my position on May lasting out the year. If her deal is defeated, presumably she isn't just going to give up and resign immediately? Just so hard to tell.

    I doubt May will resign immediately. They only way to go will be the men in grey suits.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good morning, everyone.

    Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.

    Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Roger said:

    What's wrong with IDS? Weird for sure but no weider than those two.

    IDS has only two flaws.

    1) Everything he says

    2) Everything he does

    Apart from that he’s brilliant.
    Well he's not much to look at either and his breath's no picnic.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,904
    ydoethur said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the vote is lost badly enough for the PM to be deposed, the new leader will have about as much power as Grand-Admiral Donitz

    Before he signed the surrender or before he was arrested?
    Either. He tried to countermand the surrender in Berlin. And failed. He tried to negotiate surrender with the western Allies. And failed. He tried to persuade the Allies that they needed his government to administer the non-conquered bits of Germany. And failed. Finally he tried to stay in office. And failed.

    In office. And utterly powerless. Feels like a viable analogy for Theresa May.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    It would need to be someone who doesn't want to be permanent leader, since the party won't want to give anyone the incumbency edge. Hunt seems a plausible choice. Do we know if he'd fancy the top job permanently?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    One among many known unknowns is what Theresa May was thinking about on the 14 hours or so flight back from Argentina. A bold new strategy, or catching up with sleep?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Blimey.

    https://twitter.com/josh_hammer/status/1069386719093510145?s=21
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Roger said:

    What's wrong with IDS? Weird for sure but no weider than those two.

    IDS has only two flaws.

    1) Everything he says

    2) Everything he does

    Apart from that he’s brilliant.
    There is also his severely limited capacity for reasoned thought to be taken into consideration, surely ?

    That’s covered in 2).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    I fail to see why. The EU have abundantly made clear the Deal is the only one on the table and both Javid and Hunt are tied in to it having stayed in the Cabinet. Neither would get any better offer nor would the Tory base or the ERG accept the Norway option without a contest with one of their own as it requires free movement.

    If May were forced out it would be because the Tories were ready to go for No Deal in which case either Boris or Davis would be favourites. If there is an EUref2 with a Deal option as Deltapoll showed May could well win it
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.

    "Hammond may" or Hammond-May? Seems like an appropriate name for her ardent Remainer back seat driver, who is as responsible as anyone for the mess we're in. It would be anything but the change of direction needed.

    Even Clarkson would do a better job.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The Tories have forgotten their selling point

    Conservatives were once the sensible ones who put the national interest first but the party is now home to Brexit zealots

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-tories-have-forgotten-their-selling-point-3hcwmtm6j
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    rkrkrk said:

    Hmm... pondering my position on May lasting out the year. If her deal is defeated, presumably she isn't just going to give up and resign immediately? Just so hard to tell.

    If May's Deal is defeated and we go to No Deal we will be heading for the worst recession since the 1930s according to the Bank of England and Scotland potentially voting for independence. In which case even if May goes having tried her best what PM wants to take over in those circumstances? Bar Corbyn of course
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    I fail to see why. The EU have abundantly made clear the Deal is the only one on the table and both Javid and Hunt are tied in to it having stayed in the Cabinet. Neither would get any better offer nor would the Tory base or the ERG accept the Norway option without a contest with one of their own as it requires free movement.

    If May were forced out it would be because the Tories were ready to go for No Deal in which case either Boris or Davis would be favourites. If there is an EUref2 with a Deal option as Deltapoll showed May could well win it

    No.

    If May is forced out it will be to prevent a lost confidence vote and a minority Labour government, however unstable or shortlived that might be. Brexit is no longer the only consideration, or the most important in the short term.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.

    David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    IanB2 said:

    Something is cheering the £ up a little this morning?

    There has been speculation in the Sun about the 11th December vote being postponed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,169
    The emergency pm idea is one of the reasons getting rid of may, while necessary, doesn't solve the problem the Tories have. To take action they need to unify around someone quick but the whole point is they cannot agree what to do. Hunt and Javid will I'm sure pivot to a new position once the deal fails but an emergency interim leader should have already advocated whatever stance is decided upon before they have a full contest.
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    I fail to see why. The EU have abundantly made clear the Deal is the only one on the table and both Javid and Hunt are tied in to it having stayed in the Cabinet. Neither would get any better offer nor would the Tory base or the ERG accept the Norway option without a contest with one of their own as it requires free movement.

    If May were forced out it would be because the Tories were ready to go for No Deal in which case either Boris or Davis would be favourites. If there is an EUref2 with a Deal option as Deltapoll showed May could well win it

    No.

    If May is forced out it will be to prevent a lost confidence vote and a minority Labour government, however unstable or shortlived that might be. Brexit is no longer the only consideration, or the most important in the short term.
    Brexit is far more important than labour getting in. Frankly we might as Well let labour try.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    David Davis is the sensible choice

    No, he really isn't.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Scott_P said:

    The Tories have forgotten their selling point

    Conservatives were once the sensible ones who put the national interest first but the party is now home to Brexit zealots

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-tories-have-forgotten-their-selling-point-3hcwmtm6j


    Very funny. The Tories main asset was their stewardship of the economy but they have become just another tax and spend polarity under Osborne and Hammond and have nothing much to distinguish them from Milibandite Labour now.

    The national interest would be in implementing Brexit not ignoring it by trying to implement Brino. May’s obsession with immigration as the only reason people voted Leave is asinine and mistaken.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    RochdalePioneers said:

    ydoethur said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If the vote is lost badly enough for the PM to be deposed, the new leader will have about as much power as Grand-Admiral Donitz

    Before he signed the surrender or before he was arrested?
    Either. He tried to countermand the surrender in Berlin. And failed. He tried to negotiate surrender with the western Allies. And failed. He tried to persuade the Allies that they needed his government to administer the non-conquered bits of Germany. And failed. Finally he tried to stay in office. And failed.

    In office. And utterly powerless. Feels like a viable analogy for Theresa May.
    I came across his memoirs (written from prison, presumably) in a Danish second-hand bookshop a couple of weeks ago. Quite interesting on the U-boat war. All quite amoral - apart from a passing reference to atrocities in the camps, he portrays himself simply as a military man doing his job.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,169
    Foxy said:

    Not sure how this impacts on Gibralter and British immigrants to the Costas.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1069482580616060928?s=19

    Cannot be right, Roger is always telling us how civilization only occurs in the EU and rise of extremism only without it.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.

    Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.


    Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,169
    Roger said:

    My guess is Gove.

    A shocking choice but it wouldn't be the first. Tory zeitgeist.

    He's betrayed leave by backing the dea. I imagine many Tories think that anyway, even though he at least backs an option which sees us leave.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Scott_P said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    David Davis is the sensible choice

    No, he really isn't.
    I beg to differ beg to differ
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,169
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    The one thing May (and the Cabinet) will want to prevent is Jeremy Corbyn as PM, even if only for 10 days as his anti-Tory rainbow coalition would be unstable at best, so if May is replaced, it could be sudden and before a vote of no confidence.

    Yes, gods forbid we have an unstable government.

    Either we need a brexit deal or we don't. If we don't the Tories need to focus in that, if we do we need parliament to grow up and pass it even if it means labour get in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.

    Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.


    Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
    If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Scott_P said:

    The Tories have forgotten their selling point

    Conservatives were once the sensible ones who put the national interest first but the party is now home to Brexit zealots

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-tories-have-forgotten-their-selling-point-3hcwmtm6j


    Very funny. The Tories main asset was their stewardship of the economy but they have become just another tax and spend polarity under Osborne and Hammond and have nothing much to distinguish them from Milibandite Labour now.

    The national interest would be in implementing Brexit not ignoring it by trying to implement Brino. May’s obsession with immigration as the only reason people voted Leave is asinine and mistaken.
    Spending as a percentage of GDP has fallen from 48% in 2010 to 42% now but as Matthew Goodwin has shown most voters are now tiring of austerity and immigration was the biggest driver for working class Leave voters
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    I fail to see why. The EU have abundantly made clear the Deal is the only one on the table and both Javid and Hunt are tied in to it having stayed in the Cabinet. Neither would get any better offer nor would the Tory base or the ERG accept the Norway option without a contest with one of their own as it requires free movement.

    If May were forced out it would be because the Tories were ready to go for No Deal in which case either Boris or Davis would be favourites. If there is an EUref2 with a Deal option as Deltapoll showed May could well win it

    No.

    If May is forced out it will be to prevent a lost confidence vote and a minority Labour government, however unstable or shortlived that might be. Brexit is no longer the only consideration, or the most important in the short term.
    To be honest if May goes we may as well put Corbyn in. The Tories will have shown themselves unfit for government and unwilling to back the only Deal on the table so we may as well get Corbyn in as PM propped up by the SNP and maybe the LDs too and end up with permanent Customs Union and quite possibly permanent Single Market too while the Tories go into opposition under Boris on a hard Brexit platform
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,169
    I don't agree May wont resign. She hasn't because her deal has not been rejected officially. Lose by150 or 200 and she is no longer the most likely to see any new action through. Someone else has a better chance of attempting to get tweaks. It might not be possible but parliament will have demanded it. As she will no longer be the best person to try to take it forward she might qui then.

    As odd as it may seem she has had a reason to stay on, a small part to success. That won't be the case soon so it would be time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited December 2018
    kle4 said:

    I don't agree May wont resign. She hasn't because her deal has not been rejected officially. Lose by150 or 200 and she is no longer the most likely to see any new action through. Someone else has a better chance of attempting to get tweaks. It might not be possible but parliament will have demanded it. As she will no longer be the best person to try to take it forward she might qui then.

    As odd as it may seem she has had a reason to stay on, a small part to success. That won't be the case soon so it would be time.

    There will be no tweaks and certainly none to satisfy the ERG.

    For the umpteenth time the EU have made clear it is this Deal or No Deal. End of conversation. There is no other Deal available without permanent Customs Union and/or permanent Single Market
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Scott_P said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    David Davis is the sensible choice

    No, he really isn't.
    I beg to differ beg to differ
    When you say it twice that makes all the difference :)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.

    David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.

    I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.

    David Davis? Really?
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    HYUFD said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.

    Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.


    Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
    If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
    We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,169
    old_labour said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something is cheering the £ up a little this morning?

    There has been speculation in the Sun about the 11th December vote being postponed.
    To what purpose? Until the vote happens we can hardly move on to the next options, limited though they are. And everyone already knows it's losing so pushing it back won't achieve anything - the fabled 'it will concentrate minds' theory proved very incorrect unless the deal concentrated minds against it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kle4 said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    The one thing May (and the Cabinet) will want to prevent is Jeremy Corbyn as PM, even if only for 10 days as his anti-Tory rainbow coalition would be unstable at best, so if May is replaced, it could be sudden and before a vote of no confidence.

    Yes, gods forbid we have an unstable government.
    LOL indeed.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.

    Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.


    Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
    If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
    We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
    What death wish? While Corbyn leads LAB there a few risks for the Tories
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Bloody DUP.

    They deserve to have a Corbyn Premiership that sees NI become a part of the Republic.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1069359323434942464?s=21
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,169
    TOPPING said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.

    David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.

    I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.

    David Davis? Really?
    Sure. Parliament wants to try something unrealistic, the Tories want that? Then they might as well go with someone who seems to believe it at any rate.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    TOPPING said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.

    David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.

    I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.

    David Davis? Really?
    I don’t think May will go anywhere. Even if there is a leadership contest, Ithink she’ll survive which is why Corbyn is a nailed on certainty to be in office next year. May is pure electoral poison and completely ineffective.

    If she does go, which I doubt, she has to be successeded by a Leaver and Davis is the most sensible choice.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    felix said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Scott_P said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    David Davis is the sensible choice

    No, he really isn't.
    I beg to differ beg to differ
    When you say it twice that makes all the difference :)

    He didn’t really have any worthwhile rebuttal arguments and nor do you it seems.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    kle4 said:

    old_labour said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something is cheering the £ up a little this morning?

    There has been speculation in the Sun about the 11th December vote being postponed.
    To what purpose? Until the vote happens we can hardly move on to the next options, limited though they are. And everyone already knows it's losing so pushing it back won't achieve anything - the fabled 'it will concentrate minds' theory proved very incorrect unless the deal concentrated minds against it.
    Maybe the EU are going to blink.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,169
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bloody DUP.

    They deserve to have a Corbyn Premiership that sees NI become a part of the Republic.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1069359323434942464?s=21

    I never bought that the DUP would not do this. It also the strongest push to get the Tories to remove her.

    Corbyn could be pm very soon. Let's say May goes and a Tory leader tries to get something new so the dup calm down. Maybe they are very lucky but most likely they get nothing or only tweaks. At which point unless they go no deal they might as well just have stuck with May and we should have a GE which Corbyn wins by default as Tories fight.

    I wish prime minister good luck as Starmer moves them toward remain.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    MikeSmithson said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.

    Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.


    Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
    If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
    We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
    What death wish? While Corbyn leads LAB there a few risks for the Tories
    May is electoral poison. She has no charisma and lost a 20% lead in the polls in the last election. She has no policies other than Brexit which no one likes. Both no deal and no Brexit are preferable. She has no domestic policy agenda and Hammond is just another tax and spend Chancellor. Who on earth wants to vote for all that. Raising the fear of a Corbyn Gov didn’t work last time, why on earth should it this time. It’s all she has got and it doesn’t work. Ditching her is the the Tories only hope and they don’t seem to want to save themselves.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It depends whether the Prime Minister is explicitly temporary while the Conservatives indulge in some blood-letting. If so, paradoxically a less senior and more replacable figure might be chosen. David Lidington is the obvious candidate, but David Gauke is another possibility.

    One of them might be Prime Minister but not Conservative party leader. Worth noting when considering which betting markets to play on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,169
    MarqueeMark said:

    kle4 said:

    old_labour said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something is cheering the £ up a little this morning?

    There has been speculation in the Sun about the 11th December vote being postponed.
    To what purpose? Until the vote happens we can hardly move on to the next options, limited though they are. And everyone already knows it's losing so pushing it back won't achieve anything - the fabled 'it will concentrate minds' theory proved very incorrect unless the deal concentrated minds against it.
    Maybe the EU are going to blink.....
    We can hope that is true. But the main reason we keep blinking first, our national divisions, remains as true as ever. Expecting the EU to blink is far riskier than those suggesting acknowledge.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    AmpfieldAndy said:



    David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.

    He doesn't know what day it is.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    Okay, if her deal fails, she has I think the following options:
    1) resign 2) try to renegotiate a new deal 3) call for a GE to back her deal 4) call for a second referendum to back her deal in some form or 5) come out for hard brexit.

    1) feels unlikely, 2) difficult to know what she could achieve if anything, but this would seem to be the logical next step, 3) possible, but short of a landslide or somehow changing Tory MP votes I don't know that this helps 4) Unclear how it passes parliament, what the wording would be, many other problems... 5) I think parliament/her party would get rid of her.

    I don't understand though how her whips have so miscalculated. They must have thought they could get this deal through parliament, so how can there be 80+ Tory MPs opposed?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bloody DUP.

    They deserve to have a Corbyn Premiership that sees NI become a part of the Republic.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1069359323434942464?s=21

    It's a good thing we didn't vote for a coalition of chaos, eh?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    TOPPING said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.

    David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.

    I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.

    David Davis? Really?
    I don’t think May will go anywhere. Even if there is a leadership contest, Ithink she’ll survive which is why Corbyn is a nailed on certainty to be in office next year. May is pure electoral poison and completely ineffective.

    If she does go, which I doubt, she has to be successeded by a Leaver and Davis is the most sensible choice.
    She's poison yet David Davis is your drink. May is many things but she could never be called a lazy, preening fool.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,169
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't agree May wont resign. She hasn't because her deal has not been rejected officially. Lose by150 or 200 and she is no longer the most likely to see any new action through. Someone else has a better chance of attempting to get tweaks. It might not be possible but parliament will have demanded it. As she will no longer be the best person to try to take it forward she might qui then.

    As odd as it may seem she has had a reason to stay on, a small part to success. That won't be the case soon so it would be time.

    There will be no tweaks and certainly none to satisfy the ERG.

    For the umpteenth time the EU have made clear it is this Deal or No Deal. End of conversation. There is no other Deal available without permanent Customs Union and/or permanent Single Market
    For the umpteenth time I believe you. But Mps will act based on what they believe not what you or I believe, even if that means they attempt something pointless.

    You cannot assume mps will act in ways based on premises they don't believe. They mostly think there are changes to be made. They will accordingly no matter how wrong you think they are.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Dura_Ace said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:



    David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.

    He doesn't know what day it is.
    I am sure there will be some who find slurs like that compelling but really, is that all you can say. I don’t know why you bother myself.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    As an aside, Dynasties last night was riveting viewing. Painted wolves used to be called African hunting dogs, right?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,169
    NickPalmer said:


    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bloody DUP.

    They deserve to have a Corbyn Premiership that sees NI become a part of the Republic.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1069359323434942464?s=21

    It's a good thing we didn't vote for a coalition of chaos, eh?
    We the public created the chaos voting for leave.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.

    Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.


    Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
    If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
    We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
    What death wish? While Corbyn leads LAB there a few risks for the Tories
    May is electoral poison. She has no charisma and lost a 20% lead in the polls in the last election. She has no policies other than Brexit which no one likes. Both no deal and no Brexit are preferable. She has no domestic policy agenda and Hammond is just another tax and spend Chancellor. Who on earth wants to vote for all that. Raising the fear of a Corbyn Gov didn’t work last time, why on earth should it this time. It’s all she has got and it doesn’t work. Ditching her is the the Tories only hope and they don’t seem to want to save themselves.
    That is why she leads Labour by 5 % in the last Year poll I guess.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    matt said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    TOPPING said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.

    David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.

    I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.

    David Davis? Really?
    I don’t think May will go anywhere. Even if there is a leadership contest, Ithink she’ll survive which is why Corbyn is a nailed on certainty to be in office next year. May is pure electoral poison and completely ineffective.

    If she does go, which I doubt, she has to be successeded by a Leaver and Davis is the most sensible choice.
    She's poison yet David Davis is your drink. May is many things but she could never be called a lazy, preening fool.
    I am beginning to think that she is the only politician who could have delivered Brexit.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    felix said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.

    Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.


    Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
    If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
    We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
    What death wish? While Corbyn leads LAB there a few risks for the Tories
    May is electoral poison. She has no charisma and lost a 20% lead in the polls in the last election. She has no policies other than Brexit which no one likes. Both no deal and no Brexit are preferable. She has no domestic policy agenda and Hammond is just another tax and spend Chancellor. Who on earth wants to vote for all that. Raising the fear of a Corbyn Gov didn’t work last time, why on earth should it this time. It’s all she has got and it doesn’t work. Ditching her is the the Tories only hope and they don’t seem to want to save themselves.
    That is why she leads Labour by 5 % in the last Year poll I guess.
    She led by 20% at the start of the election campaign and lost her majority. 5% without boundary changes is nothing.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    felix said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.

    Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.


    Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
    If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
    We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
    What death wish? While Corbyn leads LAB there a few risks for the Tories
    May is electoral poison. She has no charisma and lost a 20% lead in the polls in the last election. She has no policies other than Brexit which no one likes. Both no deal and no Brexit are preferable. She has no domestic policy agenda and Hammond is just another tax and spend Chancellor. Who on earth wants to vote for all that. Raising the fear of a Corbyn Gov didn’t work last time, why on earth should it this time. It’s all she has got and it doesn’t work. Ditching her is the the Tories only hope and they don’t seem to want to save themselves.
    That is why she leads Labour by 5 % in the last Year poll I guess.
    She led by 20% at the start of the election campaign and lost her majority. 5% without boundary changes is nothing.
    If you think David Davis is a greater electoral asset than Theresa May, then I would like some of what you have been drinking.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Dura_Ace said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:



    David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.

    He doesn't know what day it is.

    Don't you know anything ? He isn't available, he's negotiating a trade deal with Minnesota
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    currystar said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    felix said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Hammond may get the gig as a caretaker. Not sure I see him winning a contest for the permanent post.

    Some markets are just next Con leader, others are next permanent Con leader, not counting temporary/caretaker replacements for May.


    Hammond has no chance. He is more unpopular than May and even less charisma. He is just another tax and spend Chancellor who is over promoted. Either the Tories appoint a Leave supporter to replace May or they lay out the welcome mat for Corbyn.
    If the ERG manage to topple May, which is unlikely, they are not going to allow a coronation for a Deal supporter like Hammond, Javid or Hunt but force a contest with one of their own like Boris or Davis going to the membership on a try for Canada Plus or No Deal platform and that candidate would likely win
    We’ll see. I don’t think the ERG have the numbers to topple May. They can’t even force a leadership contest. However a Leave supporting OM is the only way to proceed. I think May will lose her deal by a big margin, having been found in contempt of parliament for not publishing her legal advice, face a no confidence vote but survive thanks to the Remainers in the Tory Party who have a death wish. The DUP will help Labour bring her down and Corbyn will be in Downing St some time next year.
    What death wish? While Corbyn leads LAB there a few risks for the Tories
    May is electoral poison. She has no charisma and lost a 20% lead in the polls in the last election. She has no policies other than Brexit which no one likes. Both no deal and no Brexit are preferable. She has no domestic policy agenda and Hammond is just another tax and spend Chancellor. Who on earth wants to vote for all that. Raising the fear of a Corbyn Gov didn’t work last time, why on earth should it this time. It’s all she has got and it doesn’t work. Ditching her is the the Tories only hope and they don’t seem to want to save themselves.
    That is why she leads Labour by 5 % in the last Year poll I guess.
    She led by 20% at the start of the election campaign and lost her majority. 5% without boundary changes is nothing.
    If you think David Davis is a greater electoral asset than Theresa May, then I would like some of what you have been drinking.
    Tea - English Breakfast to be exact.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:



    David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.

    He doesn't know what day it is.
    I am sure there will be some who find slurs like that compelling but really, is that all you can say. I don’t know why you bother myself.
    Even as we enter the manic end times for the Brexit project surely you can see that swinging off DD's nut sack is pointless. He's a laughing stock. And that's just within the tory party. The rest of the country actively despises him.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    matt said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    TOPPING said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Javid and Hunt would both be worse than May. Both are straw men - saying what they think people want to hear whilst being completely inept and ineffective. Javid has done nothing worthwhile to date on housing or policing and the shift in immigration from EU to non EU shows how ineffective he is. Hunt was an abysmal Culture Secretary and an even worse Health Sec than Lansley or Burnham.

    David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.

    I think you have eloquently demonstrated why, short of this turning into a back me or sack me vote, May is going nowhere.

    David Davis? Really?
    I don’t think May will go anywhere. Even if there is a leadership contest, Ithink she’ll survive which is why Corbyn is a nailed on certainty to be in office next year. May is pure electoral poison and completely ineffective.

    If she does go, which I doubt, she has to be successeded by a Leaver and Davis is the most sensible choice.
    She's poison yet David Davis is your drink. May is many things but she could never be called a lazy, preening fool.
    Being poison is far worse, especially as she can’t keep either her Cabinet or her allies loyal.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,609
    Michael Gove would be the leaver who kept us in; but Kenneth Clarke would be the remainer who got us out while preserving a degree of sanity, actually communicating with the public and keeping big business onside. If it came to a temporary government of national unity - and it may need to - the Father of the House would do a good job.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Dura_Ace said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:



    David Davis is the sensible choice for an interim PM which a leadership election is held.

    He doesn't know what day it is.
    I am sure there will be some who find slurs like that compelling but really, is that all you can say. I don’t know why you bother myself.
    Even as we enter the manic end times for the Brexit project surely you can see that swinging off DD's nut sack is pointless. He's a laughing stock. And that's just within the tory party. The rest of the country actively despises him.
    I doubt that is true and certainly not as far as the voters of Haltemprice and Howden are concerned. Difficult to see him doing a worse job than May.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bloody DUP.

    They deserve to have a Corbyn Premiership that sees NI become a part of the Republic.

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1069359323434942464?s=21

    If the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland did not know that nationalists and unionists voted for different parties, then it is hardly surprising the government also failed to realise the new hard border the DUP objected to was not the one with Ireland (covered by GFA) but the one down the Irish Sea.

  • OneArmedBadgerOneArmedBadger Posts: 41
    The value bet for next prime minister should be a crossbench peer. Maybe a retired judge, maybe a former general. Not a party hack, anyway. Who else could lead a national unity government tasked with either implementing Norway, or a second referendum? Not Cable. Certainly not any other party leader.

    The Conservatives won't be able to find any kind of leader who can keep their coalition together, should May jump or be pushed. And I'm not convinced there'd be a majority for holding another election, while both Norway and ref II could just about get to critical mass.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    edited December 2018
    kle4 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    kle4 said:

    old_labour said:

    IanB2 said:

    Something is cheering the £ up a little this morning?

    There has been speculation in the Sun about the 11th December vote being postponed.
    To what purpose? Until the vote happens we can hardly move on to the next options, limited though they are. And everyone already knows it's losing so pushing it back won't achieve anything - the fabled 'it will concentrate minds' theory proved very incorrect unless the deal concentrated minds against it.
    Maybe the EU are going to blink.....
    We can hope that is true. But the main reason we keep blinking first, our national divisions, remains as true as ever. Expecting the EU to blink is far riskier than those suggesting acknowledge.
    Depends what side-bar discussions have been had at the G20. If Trump and China can have a trade war truce before disaster, maybe the EU can too....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bloody DUP.

    They deserve to have a Corbyn Premiership that sees NI become a part of the Republic.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1069359323434942464?s=21

    I thought the DUP were opposed to the deal !
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,529
    edited December 2018
    rkrkrk said:

    Okay, if her deal fails, she has I think the following options:
    1) resign 2) try to renegotiate a new deal 3) call for a GE to back her deal 4) call for a second referendum to back her deal in some form or 5) come out for hard brexit.

    1) feels unlikely, 2) difficult to know what she could achieve if anything, but this would seem to be the logical next step, 3) possible, but short of a landslide or somehow changing Tory MP votes I don't know that this helps 4) Unclear how it passes parliament, what the wording would be, many other problems... 5) I think parliament/her party would get rid of her.

    I don't understand though how her whips have so miscalculated. They must have thought they could get this deal through parliament, so how can there be 80+ Tory MPs opposed?

    I think TM fully understands that the vote is lost and she will call a GE - assuming she can find a way to get past the FTPA. Candidates with comments on social media disliking her deal have been dropped. The manifesto will explicitly support her deal adding pressure to her MPs to be compliant. She can call Labour and the SNP wreckers. She rolls the dice to try and alter the maths and escape DUP influence.

    I don’t know if she could be stopped from doing this by a leadership challenge. I suspect the whips will pressure the 1922 committee to alter their rules to say that a GE has precedence.

    If she can’t get past the FTPA as has been suggested here then she’ll rely on goading the DUP to support the opposition parties to pass a VONC.

    It all comes down to whether her MPs want her or not.

    As for the next leader, if Brexit isn’t done then it has to be a firm leaver in charge or Leave voters will always feel betrayed. Not sure who would do it though.
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