The reality is that the backstop idea and the hard border talk have been more political in nature than anything to do with practicality of managing trade.
For the umpteenth time, no one over here in NI believed seriously there would be border checkpoints and the like returning. It was however waved about like a threat of war by people, next to none of whom appeared to actually come from here, trying to serve their own ends. It was an 80% politically motivated stick.
RE: Trump. Keep an eye out for Felix Sater, the third name of the Russian linked triumverate that I mentioned on here a long time ago. Manafort is already an open story and noted as having rather close links to the Russian government. Carter Page is believed to be an actual full on agent for the Russian government. Sater, who has notable mob/government (lot of overlap there) connections back in Russia, has now emerged in questions to Trump himself.
In some areas Sater has the potential to damage Trump as much as Cohen.
Some of this whole story does bring in local players. Whilst I think Carole Cadwalladr gets a fair and correct amount of stick for being a hysterical zealot who is blending what are facts with a politically inspired commentary to meet her own Brexit bias, there is some actual worth noting information in there.
How!?! I know 'something will come up' is something I have criticised others for, and what I am about to say relies just as much on that kind of speculation, but there is no political will behind her deal, and while some moves have been improving in terms of the public view it is not as though there is a groundswell of support for it that will drastically change the political landscape here. I've never seen a political policy so dead before.
1. Dec 11 vote rejects deal, but by "less than expected". 2. Referendum proposal either fails, or is dismissed as impractical by May. 3. Labour presses VONC. Fails. 4. May promises to try to get critics' points considered, goes to Brussels. 5. May gets token concessions, returns, and says (glossing madly) you've got most of what you wanted, there's no time left, take it or accept No Deal. 6. MPs shrink from No Deal and accept the slightly tweaked plan.
Nothing is certain, but with a dogged PM and a lack of united purpose among opponents, I wouldn't bet against her.
How!?! I know 'something will come up' is something I have criticised others for, and what I am about to say relies just as much on that kind of speculation, but there is no political will behind her deal, and while some moves have been improving in terms of the public view it is not as though there is a groundswell of support for it that will drastically change the political landscape here. I've never seen a political policy so dead before.
1. Dec 11 vote rejects deal, but by "less than expected". 2. Referendum proposal either fails, or is dismissed as impractical by May. 3. Labour presses VONC. Fails. 4. May promises to try to get critics' points considered, goes to Brussels. 5. May gets token concessions, returns, and says (glossing madly) you've got most of what you wanted, there's no time left, take it or accept No Deal. 6. MPs shrink from No Deal and accept the slightly tweaked plan.
Nothing is certain, but with a dogged PM and a lack of united purpose among opponents, I wouldn't bet against her.
Certainly this talk of 400 majorities against the Deal etc helps May with the expectations game, even a vote 100 loss on the first vote would almost be a good result in those terms
It's a bit of a myth that the young didn't turn out for Labour in 2017, based on some quickly released but apparently erroneous turnout data by age. YouGov's later analysis suggested that, while the turnout of the young was lower than of the old, it was significantly higher than in previous GEs. Reaction to 2016 is doubtless part of this, and a reason why (especially if Labour's motivated activist base is thrown behind it) another referendum is likely to see a higher youth turnout.
Conversely a lot of the usual-non-voters, typically middle aged people in (especially Labour)safe seats, who turned out in 2016 may not do so again.
And there were people who voted Leave as a protest, never expecting it to win (some in my family) who won't do so again. Leavers won't be able to claim that the whole thing will be amazingly easy to implement, and with a specific proposition in front of them its potential weaknesses will come under a lot more scrutiny.
Quite. And what will the leave campaign message be in a new referendum? You know it's nothing like we promised in 2016, in fact it's crap, but go for it anyway? Hmmmmm.....
Leave's message would be "no means no" or some variant on that.
But this time Leave would lack most of the positive messaging it had in 2016. Some people will still be saying there will be no problems with no deal, but there will be oodles of evidence of senior leavers saying no deal is, at best, no ideal, and plenty more saying worse. So the campaign falls back on angry insistence that 2016 counted and this one is unfair, or that it is not great but it is better than remaining.
Stirring.
The momentum will only go one way I think. Best hold off on our blue passports.
A rather head-in-the-clouds academic suggested to me this week that the way forward for Western societies is for people to cut down their hours of work, reduce their levels of stress and burn-out, and in their tighter financial circumstances, quit consuming so much. His idea is that we'd be healthier, greener and overall quite a lot happier. We would also be poorer, which is why I'm not convinced his big idea will actually catch on.
Your final paragraph sounds like a bloody good idea. I would suggest that we would be less wealthy rather than poorer, and in non - financial terms considerably richer.
That actually does have to be the answer. It's just not possible within the laws of physics* for productivity and real GDP per capita to increase forever.
I suspect that, if mankind survives it, the 21st century will be the century where we adjusted to new ways of measuring wellbeing, other than wealth. And hooray for that!
(tbh I only got 'o' level physics but I am pretty confident I'm right on this one!)
The problem with that isn't GCSE Physics, but GCSE Economics...
Value-added isn't the same as physical "stuff". Something can be more valuable but require fewer physical resources. Just as a very basic example, imagine if everything you read online had to be ordered on physical pages and delivered to you! And to read just one story on BBC Online, one on the Guardian and one on the Telegraph, you had to get to get three whole newspapers. Oh and a spot of guilt sidebar of shaming on the Mail? That'll be a fourth, plus probably a 'sleb magazine or three since the paper offering isn't quite as sidebooby as online and that experience might have to be purchased elsewhere.
Plus if you clicked on one of their little video clips, you'd get a VHS (or film reel!) through the letterbox too...
GCSE? Don't start trying to baffle me with this new-fangled stuff.
(PS I get your point but still there are limits - all this online stuff has to be created and stored somewhere. It can't go on increasing infinitely.)
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They may well do, plenty like me are willing to back a sane Brexit with a Deal but no Brexit over no Deal
How!?! I know 'something will come up' is something I have criticised others for, and what I am about to say relies just as much on that kind of speculation, but there is no political will behind her deal, and while some moves have been improving in terms of the public view it is not as though there is a groundswell of support for it that will drastically change the political landscape here. I've never seen a political policy so dead before.
1. Dec 11 vote rejects deal, but by "less than expected". 2. Referendum proposal either fails, or is dismissed as impractical by May. 3. Labour presses VONC. Fails. 4. May promises to try to get critics' points considered, goes to Brussels. 5. May gets token concessions, returns, and says (glossing madly) you've got most of what you wanted, there's no time left, take it or accept No Deal. 6. MPs shrink from No Deal and accept the slightly tweaked plan.
Nothing is certain, but with a dogged PM and a lack of united purpose among opponents, I wouldn't bet against her.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
I would expect she would decide the course after immediate talks with cabinet and opposition leaders.
I would expect first call is the EU commission and if possible a cross party group to consider Norway and a referendum
If she says nothing has changed , well she will of course be no confidenced
If she has an eye to legacy she has the opportunity to act in a collegiate manner and take the country with her
She is trusted far more than anyone else on brexit
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
No, I don't think so. More likely she'd press for one between her deal and no deal. Albeit she'd probably have to accept a three-way with Remain on the ballot too.
That would split the vote, no doubt intentionally
Any three-way referendum would clearly have to have an AV method. It couldn't be FPTP with a winner gaining as little as 35% of the vote. That would deal with the 'split the vote issue'.
I'd except No Deal to be eliminated then May's Deal to win over Remain... Which (even as a Reaminer) I can see is a sound reflection of the original 52/48 split.
If there is a 3-way vote, Remain is likely to win whether its FPTP or AV. Remain is likely to be on 40-45%, and No Deal is likely to come second. If it's run on AV lines, redistribution of the "for the Deal" votes will push Remain over the 50% threshold.
Any Brexit-supporting MP who doesn't back TM's Deal on 11/12/18 is in effect shooting themselves in the foot, because any 2nd referendum will abort Brexit.
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
No, I don't think so. More likely she'd press for one between her deal and no deal. Albeit she'd probably have to accept a three-way with Remain on the ballot too.
That would split the vote, no doubt intentionally
Any three-way referendum would clearly have to have an AV method. It couldn't be FPTP with a winner gaining as little as 35% of the vote. That would deal with the 'split the vote issue'.
I'd except No Deal to be eliminated then May's Deal to win over Remain... Which (even as a Reaminer) I can see is a sound reflection of the original 52/48 split.
If there is a 3-way vote, Remain is likely to win whether its FPTP or AV. Remain is likely to be on 40-45%, and No Deal is likely to come second. If it's run on AV lines, redistribution of the "for the Deal" votes will push Remain over the 50% threshold.
Any Brexit-supporting MP who doesn't back TM's Deal on 11/12/18 is in effect shooting themselves in the foot, because any 2nd referendum will abort Brexit.
Yesterday's Deltapoll implied that May's Deal would win IIRC.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They may well do, plenty like me are willing to back a sane Brexit with a Deal but no Brexit over no Deal
I suspect most on here, whether originally Leavers or Remainers, left or right, are of the same mind.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
I'd still make Leave the favourites in the referendum.
Hard to say. It is clear that a lot of remainers do not even see the possibility of defeat, since plenty demand the public have a say because the public has changed its mind, which rather gives the game away on the official reason, for a confirmatory vote (whichever way that might be).
I'd vote remain over no deal, but the smug assumption of the dishonestnamevote campaigners could yet blow up in their faces.
Why I think Leave would win by an even larger majority.
1) Leave v
Are you talking about Remain versus No Deal or Remain versus May's Deal?
Remain vs No Deal.
Not going to happen. May's Deal will be on any 2nd referendum.
Care to bet on that? It would be a farce for it to be included.
When 56% of voters would vote for the Deal over Remain and 58% for the Deal over No Deal with Deltapoll it is clearly the option which has the highest potential support, so it would be absurd if the Deal was not included
Absurd? Perhaps. I can still see it not being included. It does depend on if the Tories do what they need to and get rid of May. She will obviously want to include the deal, any subsequent leader will not, since there's no way the next leader gets appointed on a 'let's just try the same thing' message.
You are forgetting there is no way May is going to be removed given over 200 Tory MPs even now are still backing the Deal and that gives her a comfortable majority of the Tory Parliamentary Party.
Most Tory voters also back the Deal with YouGov and so does the moderate middle of the country, as a Tory member I for one will be furious if the Deal is not included if there is a referendum and will pressure my MP to ensure it is
How!?! I know 'something will come up' is something I have criticised others for, and what I am about to say relies just as much on that kind of speculation, but there is no political will behind her deal, and while some moves have been improving in terms of the public view it is not as though there is a groundswell of support for it that will drastically change the political landscape here. I've never seen a political policy so dead before.
1. Dec 11 vote rejects deal, but by "less than expected". 2. Referendum proposal either fails, or is dismissed as impractical by May. 3. Labour presses VONC. Fails. 4. May promises to try to get critics' points considered, goes to Brussels. 5. May gets token concessions, returns, and says (glossing madly) you've got most of what you wanted, there's no time left, take it or accept No Deal. 6. MPs shrink from No Deal and accept the slightly tweaked plan.
Nothing is certain, but with a dogged PM and a lack of united purpose among opponents, I wouldn't bet against her.
You don't think the mass of Labour remainers and Tory malcontents will be able to see a referendum proposal through?
I don't think the sequencing you lay out is absurd in itself, but it is the very first step that is the key. I could easily see that plan working if the rejection was not by that much, and even that that was the plan all along. But with a bare handful of Labour votes (if any at all) and many more Tory votes against than expected (including remainers who clearly see their chance to prevent Brexit altogether rather than take a managed Brexit), are the chances good the rejection is kept to a level which keeps the deal alive, politically? I
It was reported a little while back that May's team were trying to brief that keeping the loss to under a hundred would be a good result. As pathetic as that sounds, I could almost see it, as it requires flipping 50 or so, which if all other options are rejected sounds possible, if not likely (given objections to things like the backstop are, no matter how it is glossed, going to be fixed with tweaks).
But whatever the public mood MPs seem to be hardening, not softening. Some level of bluster and bluff, perhaps, but the numbers only get worse for May in the Commons. Can she even keep the loss to 100?
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than May's deal is to defeat May's deal, nothing more. After that they expect all the momentum will be with No Deal. May's deal is the existential threat to their clean break. I think their calculations are wrong but there is no way they would back Remain if No Deal was genuinely of the table.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They may well do, plenty like me are willing to back a sane Brexit with a Deal but no Brexit over no Deal
I suspect most on here, whether originally Leavers or Remainers, left or right, are of the same mind.
Indeed, Remain v No Deal means we enter effectively a polarisation so sharp we will almost be in a state of civil war, neither option can unite the country. Remain means embittered Leavers and a resurgent far right, No Deal means the worst recession for decades, possible rioting and food and medicine shortages and Scotland potentially voting for independent and chaos in Ireland.
Deal is the least worst option, even if it enthuses few it as Deltapoll shows head to head it beats Remain or No Deal comfortably
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
No, I don't think so. More likely she'd press for one between her deal and no deal. Albeit she'd probably have to accept a three-way with Remain on the ballot too.
That would split the vote, no doubt intentionally
Any three-way referendum would clearly have to have an AV method. It couldn't be FPTP with a winner gaining as little as 35% of the vote. That would deal with the 'split the vote issue'.
I'd except No Deal to be eliminated then May's Deal to win over Remain... Which (even as a Reaminer) I can see is a sound reflection of the original 52/48 split.
If there is a 3-way vote, Remain is likely to win whether its FPTP or AV. Remain is likely to be on 40-45%, and No Deal is likely to come second. If it's run on AV lines, redistribution of the "for the Deal" votes will push Remain over the 50% threshold.
Any Brexit-supporting MP who doesn't back TM's Deal on 11/12/18 is in effect shooting themselves in the foot, because any 2nd referendum will abort Brexit.
I am not at all sure on that - it would be horrific and destabilising
I do think those calling for it think it is a slam dunk. Many on here do not
Does it say what position Labour would be supporting in a new referendum?
The tactical mistake everyone has made is to say that May has screwed up the negotiations. It's means they're trapped in the logic of saying we need to go back to renegotiate. Meanwhile May is executing her real plan.
That plan being to suffer the single largest parliamentary humiliation in UK history, followed by resignation?
A cunning plan indeed.
May is outmanoeuvring everyone. She's a political genius.
And so selfless - sacrificing her own premiership to ensure we Remain.
She's not going anywhere, but I think Corbyn's days may be numbered.
What's May's real plan in your opinion William?
A second referendum between the Brexit deal and Remain.
No, I don't think so. More likely she'd press for one between her deal and no deal. Albeit she'd probably have to accept a three-way with Remain on the ballot too.
That would split the vote, no doubt intentionally
Any three-way referendum would clearly have to have an AV method. It couldn't be FPTP with a winner gaining as little as 35% of the vote. That would deal with the 'split the vote issue'.
I'd except No Deal to be eliminated then May's Deal to win over Remain... Which (even as a Reaminer) I can see is a sound reflection of the original 52/48 split.
If there is a 3-way vote, Remain is likely to win whether its FPTP or AV. Remain is likely to be on 40-45%, and No Deal is likely to come second. If it's run on AV lines, redistribution of the "for the Deal" votes will push Remain over the 50% threshold.
Any Brexit-supporting MP who doesn't back TM's Deal on 11/12/18 is in effect shooting themselves in the foot, because any 2nd referendum will abort Brexit.
May will ensure it is a three way referendum held by AV if necessary, she could even had a No Deal v Deal first question, winner faces Remain in the second question
You are forgetting there is no way May is going to be removed given over 200 Tory MPs even now are still backing the Deal and that gives her a comfortable majority of the Tory Parliamentary Party.
Most Tory voters also back the Deal with YouGov and so does the moderate middle of the country, as a Tory member I for one will be furious if the Deal is not included if there is a referendum and will pressure my MP to ensure it is
I'm not forgetting it at all, I just don't agree with the premise. 200 MPs including the payroll vote (some of whom we know don't really support the deal since Cabinet Members publicly stated and privately leaked they were trying to change it even as May said it could not be) and ultra loyalists. It seems a reasonable supposition that more people back a vote of no confidence than will send in letters, because people are cowards, so the question is how many more than 48 already wanted her gone? On top of that, how many will conclude that, whether they felt May gave it her all or not, that a new leader is needed to try a new tactic, bearing in mind it's also widely leaked that several contenders are already setting out their stalls for a contest?
Tory MPs, if they were not going to remove her a long time ago, are doing the right thing in giving her a chance to get her deal through, but past that? What reason to keep her around? Other people poll better in a theoretical GE? They sure as hell don't want a GE right now - even if you think they'd still win, they need to sort Brexit first. To try a different approach? In which case why not go with someone who has not ruled it out?
That actually does have to be the answer. It's just not possible within the laws of physics* for productivity and real GDP per capita to increase forever.
I suspect that, if mankind survives it, the 21st century will be the century where we adjusted to new ways of measuring wellbeing, other than wealth. And hooray for that!
(tbh I only got 'o' level physics but I am pretty confident I'm right on this one!)
The problem with that isn't GCSE Physics, but GCSE Economics...
Value-added isn't the same as physical "stuff". Something can be more valuable but require fewer physical resources. Just as a very basic example, imagine if everything you read online had to be ordered on physical pages and delivered to you! And to read just one story on BBC Online, one on the Guardian and one on the Telegraph, you had to get to get three whole newspapers. Oh and a spot of guilt sidebar of shaming on the Mail? That'll be a fourth, plus probably a 'sleb magazine or three since the paper offering isn't quite as sidebooby as online and that experience might have to be purchased elsewhere.
Plus if you clicked on one of their little video clips, you'd get a VHS (or film reel!) through the letterbox too...
GCSE? Don't start trying to baffle me with this new-fangled stuff.
(PS I get your point but still there are limits - all this online stuff has to be created and stored somewhere. It can't go on increasing infinitely.)
So long as we have a recognisable human civilisation, I don't think there's an issue. I could hold in my hand a computer storage device that contains all the words of more Great Works of World Literature than I'll ever have time to read in my lifespan. I don't know how big it would have to be to hold more Great Works of High-Definition Film and TV than I could ever watch, that's a question I'd love to know the answer to though! And identical sets of physical inputs can lead to value-addeds with completely different orders of magnitude - give me a canvas and paint and one hour, and I can add far less value to it than, let's say, David Hockney. (In fact there are people who could add more value in one hour than a typical person makes in their own profession in a lifetime, which I still find pretty startling.)
In terms of ever-maximised subjective pleasure for minimal resources in the far-flung future, where do we end up once we start talking about the very limits of physics? Nozick's experience machine I guess. (I've never seen "The Matrix" but I understand the idea there is pretty much the same!)
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than May's deal is to defeat May's deal, nothing more. After that they expect all the momentum will be with No Deal. May's deal is the existential threat to their clean break. I think their calculations are wrong but there is no way they would back Remain if No Deal was genuinely of the table.
I know they expect the momentum to be with no deal. However they've let the genie out of the bag that some brexits are worse than remaining, even if they still think other brexits are better than remaining. They may not make the additional leap that if this brexit is worse than remaining that no deal brexit is worse than remaining, but plenty of the public might. They have endorsed that logic, that remaining is better than not getting your ideal brexit.
If I were to discuss this with Raab and told him I think No Deal Brexit was worse than Remaining what could he say to me? He'd disagree, I'm sure, but since he feels the same about May's Deal how could he object to me voting Remain? Just because he would have another option he likes better than Remain doesn't mean every Leaver will.
And the remainers don't need to convince all leavers of that. Just a few.
You don't think the mass of Labour remainers and Tory malcontents will be able to see a referendum proposal through?
I don't think the sequencing you lay out is absurd in itself, but it is the very first step that is the key. I could easily see that plan working if the rejection was not by that much, and even that that was the plan all along. But with a bare handful of Labour votes (if any at all) and many more Tory votes against than expected (including remainers who clearly see their chance to prevent Brexit altogether rather than take a managed Brexit), are the chances good the rejection is kept to a level which keeps the deal alive, politically? I
It was reported a little while back that May's team were trying to brief that keeping the loss to under a hundred would be a good result. As pathetic as that sounds, I could almost see it, as it requires flipping 50 or so, which if all other options are rejected sounds possible, if not likely (given objections to things like the backstop are, no matter how it is glossed, going to be fixed with tweaks).
But whatever the public mood MPs seem to be hardening, not softening. Some level of bluster and bluff, perhaps, but the numbers only get worse for May in the Commons. Can she even keep the loss to 100?
And that's a best case!
What Nick has laid out is based on the fact that the MV cannot be amended to include a vote for a second referendum. Since it is not a legislative vote it cannot create the legislation necessary for a referendum nor has it any legal power to force the Government to call one.
So Nick's Point 2 Is still correct. Unless May herself decides she wants a 2nd Referendum or she is removed and replaced by someone who wants one then it will not happen. There is no way Parliament can force one against her will.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than May's deal is to defeat May's deal, nothing more. After that they expect all the momentum will be with No Deal. May's deal is the existential threat to their clean break. I think their calculations are wrong but there is no way they would back Remain if No Deal was genuinely of the table.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
I think we will see this across the western world. The rise of China, AI etc will be fine for the highly educated, but in the same way the working class got shafted out of automation, now all those white collar paper pushing jobs will revolutionised in the same way.
I am ultimately positive that new jobs sectors will emerge, but how long that takes and nobody wants to lose the job they have trained all their life and been a pretty cushy deal.
The flip side of this is that globalisation, automation etc means the basic material necessities of life have never been, in real terms, more affordable (in terms of hours of work at typical pay rates you'd need to turn in to purchase them) - with the exception of residential property, where we hit the problem of a finite supply of land. This means that considerable changes to the conventional Western lifestyle are possible, even if most don't desire to pursue them.
In principle, any work I do these days is voluntary rather than financially-enforced because if I wanted to I could give up tomorrow and still live quite comfortably on my investments - but then I am also relatively highly skilled, have had periods of very intense work, and I maintained a very high savings rate that a lot of people would have found extremely uncomfortable. I know I'm not alone in pursuing that but if a lot of us did it, we'd screw up the consumer economy. In fact if I'd had more information about how my life was going to turn out, I might have restructured it so I was working something like 15-30 hour weeks (perhaps starting higher and tapering off) and just prolong the time I had to work. (Turns out that retiring early is actually a pretty daunting prospect - I mean, what would you do with yourself? - so the fact I could in principle is really more about "just in case" security than out of wanting the choice.)
A rather head-in-the-clouds academic suggested to me this week that the way forward for Western societies is for people to cut down their hours of work, reduce their levels of stress and burn-out, and in their tighter financial circumstances, quit consuming so much. His idea is that we'd be healthier, greener and overall quite a lot happier. We would also be poorer, which is why I'm not convinced his big idea will actually catch on.
Your final paragraph sounds like a bloody good idea. I would suggest that we would be less wealthy rather than poorer, and in non - financial terms considerably richer.
Well yes. Precious few lie on their deathbeds thinking I wish I'd spent more time working.
But this time Leave would lack most of the positive messaging it had in 2016. Some people will still be saying there will be no problems with no deal, but there will be oodles of evidence of senior leavers saying no deal is, at best, no ideal, and plenty more saying worse. So the campaign falls back on angry insistence that 2016 counted and this one is unfair, or that it is not great but it is better than remaining.
Stirring.
The momentum will only go one way I think. Best hold off on our blue passports.
I agree. I think May's deal will go down by a huge majority, it will become clear that the only available choices for the UK are remain or no deal and the pressure for a second referendum will then become irresistible. Many Tories, including some Cabinet ministers, will come out in support.
It was reported a little while back that May's team were trying to brief that keeping the loss to under a hundred would be a good result. As pathetic as that sounds, I could almost see it, as it requires flipping 50 or so, which if all other options are rejected sounds possible, if not likely (given objections to things like the backstop are, no matter how it is glossed, going to be fixed with tweaks).
If my maths is right, it would mean flipping 50 less half the number of those who "demi-flip" to a face-saving abstain. For example, 35 change to support the new deal, 30 change from oppose to abstain. The number of Labour abstainers from Leave constituencies might be key.
You don't think the mass of Labour remainers and Tory malcontents will be able to see a referendum proposal through?
I don't think the sequencing you lay out is absurd in itself, but it is the very first step that is the key. I could easily see that plan working if the rejection was not by that much, and even that that was the plan all along. But with a bare handful of Labour votes (if any at all) and many more Tory votes against than expected (including remainers who clearly see their chance to prevent Brexit altogether rather than take a managed Brexit), are the chances good the rejection is kept to a level which keeps the deal alive, politically? I
It was reported a little while back that May's team were trying to brief that keeping the loss to under a hundred would be a good result. As pathetic as that sounds, I could almost see it, as it requires flipping 50 or so, which if all other options are rejected sounds possible, if not likely (given objections to things like the backstop are, no matter how it is glossed, going to be fixed with tweaks).
But whatever the public mood MPs seem to be hardening, not softening. Some level of bluster and bluff, perhaps, but the numbers only get worse for May in the Commons. Can she even keep the loss to 100?
And that's a best case!
What Nick has laid out is based on the fact that the MV cannot be amended to include a vote for a second referendum. Since it is not a legislative vote it cannot create the legislation necessary for a referendum nor has it any legal power to force the Government to call one.
So Nick's Point 2 Is still correct. Unless May herself decides she wants a 2nd Referendum or she is removed and replaced by someone who wants one then it will not happen. There is no way Parliament can force one against her will.
By ''referendum proposal" I assume he meant some sort of very quick legislation (or request for delay so that such could be arranged). Yes, fraught with problems still. But my problem with his points was I don't think it gets passed the first one to try the others. If a referendum simply won't happen then I assume we no deal rather than this deal. I do not believe parliamentarians are as appalled by the prospect as they claim.
Doesn't the backstop allow us a Customs Union (plus SM for NI) without FoM?
And without ongoing contributions. Norway will be envious that's for sure!
Not really. Norway is not in the Customs union and doesn't want to be. It punches far above its weight on international bodies because it is not in the EU Customs Union.
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than May's deal is to defeat May's deal, nothing more. After that they expect all the momentum will be with No Deal. May's deal is the existential threat to their clean break. I think their calculations are wrong but there is no way they would back Remain if No Deal was genuinely of the table.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
Canada+ does not work without the backstop, as I said over 200 Tory MPs back May`s Deal out of 318 as do most Tory voters according to Yougov
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than May's deal is to defeat May's deal, nothing more. After that they expect all the momentum will be with No Deal. May's deal is the existential threat to their clean break. I think their calculations are wrong but there is no way they would back Remain if No Deal was genuinely of the table.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
I don't disagree with you that that is how they think. I just think they are playing with fire and I am by no means assured that they won't end up with nothing.
Yesterday's Deltapoll implied that May's Deal would win IIRC.
It only implied that it was slightly more likely to win in a 3-way vote. The discussion actually stated "These figures suggest that the outcome of a future referendum using first-past-the-post with all three options on the ballot would be highly uncertain with potential for any of the options to emerge ahead."
Even with the AV system, while "the deal" is more likely to win, it would still need to be at least in 2nd place on the 1st round. This is by no means a certainty, particularly if the electorate doesn't vote tactically in the 1st round, believing that they would have a chance to vote against their least favoured option in the 2nd round.
It was reported a little while back that May's team were trying to brief that keeping the loss to under a hundred would be a good result. As pathetic as that sounds, I could almost see it, as it requires flipping 50 or so, which if all other options are rejected sounds possible, if not likely (given objections to things like the backstop are, no matter how it is glossed, going to be fixed with tweaks).
If my maths is right, it would mean flipping 50 less half the number of those who "demi-flip" to a face-saving abstain. For example, 35 change to support the new deal, 30 change from oppose to abstain. The number of Labour abstainers from Leave constituencies might be key.
My disdain for anyone who would abstain is already clear, but I never let saying something twice (or more) get in my way.
I once wrote a scene in a fantasy story which involved a crucial parliamentary vote, deferred due to abstentions, coming back for a second vote at which abstention was not a permissible option, that's how much I don't like abstentions.
I cannot think why I have yet to make it as a writer
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than May's deal is to defeat May's deal, nothing more. After that they expect all the momentum will be with No Deal. May's deal is the existential threat to their clean break. I think their calculations are wrong but there is no way they would back Remain if No Deal was genuinely of the table.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
Canada+ does not work without the backstop, as I said over 200 Tory MPs back May`s Deal out of 318 as do most Tory voters according to Yougov
What I suspect is that nowhere near 200 Tory MPs will vote for the deal.
You are forgetting there is no way May is going to be removed given over 200 Tory MPs even now are still backing the Deal and that gives her a comfortable majority of the Tory Parliamentary Party.
Most Tory voters also back the Deal with YouGov and so does the moderate middle of the country, as a Tory member I for one will be furious if the Deal is not included if there is a referendum and will pressure my MP to ensure it is
I'm not forgetting it at all, I just don't agree with the premise. 200 MPs including the payroll vote (some of whom we know don't really support the deal since Cabinet Members publicly stated and privately leaked they were trying to change it even as May said it could not be) and ultra loyalists. It seems a reasonable supposition that more people back a vote of no confidence than will send in letters, because people are cowards, so the question is how many more than 48 already wanted her gone? On top of that, how many will conclude that, whether they felt May gave it her all or not, that a new leader is needed to try a new tactic, bearing in mind it's also widely leaked that several contenders are already setting out their stalls for a contest?
Tory MPs, if they were not going to remove her a long time ago, are doing the right thing in giving her a chance to get her deal through, but past that? What reason to keep her around? Other people poll better in a theoretical GE? They sure as hell don't want a GE right now - even if you think they'd still win, they need to sort Brexit first. To try a different approach? In which case why not go with someone who has not ruled it out?
If the rebels cannot even get to the 48 to call a VONC let alone have the numbers to win it clearly a comfortable majority of Tory MPs remain behind the Deal. There is no alternative tactic, the Deal is it, there is no alternative on offer from the EU.
No alternative leader polls any better than May, indeed most poll worse. If necessary May could call a referendum including a Deal option which Deltapoll shows the Deal would win
Notwithstanding Mr Herdson's earlier piece, and the procedural difficulties still in play, I don't see how Remain can possibly screw it up from here. Remain Tories are in open revolt just like no dealers, Labour are inches away from pivoting to Remain officially or otherwise since in a referendum they won't back May's deal or no deal, the Tories still won't want a GE, and with neither main party able to articulate consistent support for the deal even before it is overwhelmingly rejected by parliament, Remain has such a good chance of winning now.
What a waste.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than he table.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
Canada+ does not work without the backstop, as I said over 200 Tory MPs back May`s Deal out of 318 as do most Tory voters according to Yougov
What I suspect is that nowhere near 200 Tory MPs will vote for the deal.
I think they will, the rebels have all the publicity but nowhere near a majority of Tory MPs
You are forgetting there is no way May is going to be removed given over 200 Tory MPs even now are still backing the Deal and that gives her a comfortable majority of the Tory Parliamentary Party.
Most Tory voters also back the Deal with YouGov and so does the moderate middle of the country, as a Tory member I for one will be furious if the Deal is not included if there is a referendum and will pressure my MP to ensure it is
I'm not forgetting it at all, I just don't agree with the premise. 200 MPs including the payroll vote (some of whom we know don't really support the deal since Cabinet Members publicly stated and privately leaked they were trying to change it even as May said it could not be) and ultra loyalists. It seems a reasonable supposition that more people back a vote of no confidence than will send in letters, because people are cowards, so the question is how many more than 48 already wanted her gone? On top of that, how many will conclude that, whether they felt May gave it her all or not, that a new leader is needed to try a new tactic, bearing in mind it's also widely leaked that several contenders are already setting out their stalls for a contest?
Tory MPs, if they were not going to remove her a long time ago, are doing the right thing in giving her a chance to get her deal through, but past that? What reason to keep her around? Other people poll better in a theoretical GE? They sure as hell don't want a GE right now - even if you think they'd still win, they need to sort Brexit first. To try a different approach? In which case why not go with someone who has not ruled it out?
If the rebels cannot even get to the 48 to call a VONC let alone have the numbers to win it clearly a comfortable majority of Tory MPs remain behind the Deal. There is no alternative tactic, the Deal is it, there is no alternative on offer from the EU.
No alternative leader polls any better than May, indeed most poll worse. If necessary May could call a referendum including a Deal option which Deltapoll shows the Deal would win
You may not agree with me, but did you at least notice I addressed my belief why the alternative leader polls are irrelevant, and why those behind the deal now may not be so after it loses? Being behind the deal now does not mean they will always be so.
As for no alternative on offer, I believe you. 400 MPs don't (or claim they don't). When do you expect them to start believing it?
RE: Trump. Keep an eye out for Felix Sater, the third name of the Russian linked triumverate that I mentioned on here a long time ago. Manafort is already an open story and noted as having rather close links to the Russian government. Carter Page is believed to be an actual full on agent for the Russian government. Sater, who has notable mob/government (lot of overlap there) connections back in Russia, has now emerged in questions to Trump himself.
In some areas Sater has the potential to damage Trump as much as Cohen.
Some of this whole story does bring in local players. Whilst I think Carole Cadwalladr gets a fair and correct amount of stick for being a hysterical zealot who is blending what are facts with a politically inspired commentary to meet her own Brexit bias, there is some actual worth noting information in there.
As Mueller closes in, will Russia decide to throw Trump to the wolves, or at least determine they can better disrupt the United States by feeding (or even manufacturing) sufficient evidence to tie Congress and the White House up in impeachment hearings for a couple of years? The peripheral involvement of British figures might mean driving a wedge between Washington and London that could only be seen as a bonus for the Kremlin.
You don't think the mass of Labour remainers and Tory malcontents will be able to see a referendum proposal through?
I don't think the sequencing you lay out is absurd in itself, but it is the very first step that is the key. I could easily see that plan working if the rejection was not by that much, and even that that was the plan all along. But with a bare handful of Labour votes (if any at all) and many more Tory votes against than expected (including remainers who clearly see their chance to prevent Brexit altogether rather than take a managed Brexit), are the chances good the rejection is kept to a level which keeps the deal alive, politically? I
It was reported a little while back that May's team were trying to brief that keeping the loss to under a hundred would be a good result. As pathetic as that sounds, I could almost see it, as it requires flipping 50 or so, which if all other options are rejected sounds possible, if not likely (given objections to things like the backstop are, no matter how it is glossed, going to be fixed with tweaks).
But whatever the public mood MPs seem to be hardening, not softening. Some level of bluster and bluff, perhaps, but the numbers only get worse for May in the Commons. Can she even keep the loss to 100?
And that's a best case!
What Nick has laid out is based on the fact that the MV cannot be amended to include a vote for a second referendum. Since it is not a legislative vote it cannot create the legislation necessary for a referendum nor has it any legal power to force the Government to call one.
So Nick's Point 2 Is still correct. Unless May herself decides she wants a 2nd Referendum or she is removed and replaced by someone who wants one then it will not happen. There is no way Parliament can force one against her will.
All options apart from managed no deal now look increasingly unlikely:
- there is no majority in Parliament for the deal, so the deal fails - there is no means of securing a referendum without legislation that has to be led by the Govt, so no new referendum - there is no 2/3 majority in Parliament for a new election, so no fresh election - there is no obvious route to a VONC that can’t be solved by a new Tory leader
You don't think the mass of Labour remainers and Tory malcontents will be able to see a referendum proposal through?
I don't think the sequencing you lay out is absurd in itself, but it is the very first step that is the key. I could easily see that plan working if the rejection was not by that much, and even that that was the plan all along. But with a bare handful of Labour votes (if any at all) and many more Tory votes against than expected (including remainers who clearly see their chance to prevent Brexit altogether rather than take a managed Brexit), are the chances good the rejection is kept to a level which keeps the deal alive, politically? I
It was reported a little while back that May's team were trying to brief that keeping the loss to under a hundred would be a good result. As pathetic as that sounds, I could almost see it, as it requires flipping 50 or so, which if all other options are rejected sounds possible, if not likely (given objections to things like the backstop are, no matter how it is glossed, going to be fixed with tweaks).
But whatever the public mood MPs seem to be hardening, not softening. Some level of bluster and bluff, perhaps, but the numbers only get worse for May in the Commons. Can she even keep the loss to 100?
And that's a best case!
What Nick has laid out is based on the fact that the MV cannot be amended to include a vote for a second referendum. Since it is not a legislative vote it cannot create the legislation necessary for a referendum nor has it any legal power to force the Government to call one.
So Nick's Point 2 Is still correct. Unless May herself decides she wants a 2nd Referendum or she is removed and replaced by someone who wants one then it will not happen. There is no way Parliament can force one against her will.
All options apart from managed no deal now look increasingly unlikely:
- there is no majority in Parliament for the deal, so the deal fails - there is no means of securing a referendum without legislation that has to be led by the Govt, so no new referendum - there is no 2/3 majority in Parliament for a new election, so no fresh election - there is no obvious route to a VONC that can’t be solved by a new Tory leader
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than May's deal is to defeat May's deal, nothing more. After that they expect all the momentum will be with No Deal. May's deal is the existential threat to their clean break. I think their calculations are wrong but there is no way they would back Remain if No Deal was genuinely of the table.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
Canada+ does not work without the backstop, as I said over 200 Tory MPs back May`s Deal out of 318 as do most Tory voters according to Yougov
The feasibility of any deal is now irrelevant. There is now a variant of Leaver for whom only the complete severance of every relationship with continental Europe is morally acceptable. These people are now utterly dominant in British politics and are unstoppable.
You don't think the mass of Labour remainers and Tory malcontents will be able to see a referendum proposal through?
I don't think the sequencing you lay out is absurd in itself, but it is the very first step that is the key. I could easily see that plan working if the rejection was not by that much, and even that that was the plan all along. But with a bare handful of Labour votes (if any at all) and many more Tory votes against than expected (including remainers who clearly see their chance to prevent Brexit altogether rather than take a managed Brexit), are the chances good the rejection is kept to a level which keeps the deal alive, politically? I
It was reported a little while back that May's team were trying to brief that keeping the loss to under a hundred would be a good result. As pathetic as that sounds, I could almost see it, as it requires flipping 50 or so, which if all other options are rejected sounds possible, if not likely (given objections to things like the backstop are, no matter how it is glossed, going to be fixed with tweaks).
But whatever the public mood MPs seem to be hardening, not softening. Some level of bluster and bluff, perhaps, but the numbers only get worse for May in the Commons. Can she even keep the loss to 100?
And that's a best case!
What Nick has laid out is based on the fact that the MV cannot be amended to include a vote for a second referendum. Since it is not a legislative vote it cannot create the legislation necessary for a referendum nor has it any legal power to force the Government to call one.
So Nick's Point 2 Is still correct. Unless May herself decides she wants a 2nd Referendum or she is removed and replaced by someone who wants one then it will not happen. There is no way Parliament can force one against her will.
All options apart from managed no deal now look increasingly unlikely:
- there is no majority in Parliament for the deal, so the deal fails - there is no means of securing a referendum without legislation that has to be led by the Govt, so no new referendum - there is no 2/3 majority in Parliament for a new election, so no fresh election - there is no obvious route to a VONC that can’t be solved by a new Tory leader
Off topic reflection, is it wrong that I was kind of rooting for the Dragos in Creed II?
Just You, trump and seamus milne then...
The fight was all they had! Creed was a nice guy but he already had everything!
Is it anywhere near as good as the original rocky vs drago movie?
It's basically Rocky 4 Part II, but the tone is way different than I remember so it is hard to compare. It is good.
My favourite boxing movie is the fighter, Christian bale doing what he does best. Only annoyance is they retell the real life tale but end the movie without touching on the most famous trilogy of fights.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than May's deal is to defeat May's deal, nothing more. After that they expect all the momentum will be with No Deal. May's deal is the existential threat to their clean break. I think their calculations are wrong but there is no way they would back Remain if No Deal was genuinely of the table.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
Canada+ does not work without the backstop, as I said over 200 Tory MPs back May`s Deal out of 318 as do most Tory voters according to Yougov
The feasibility of any deal is now irrelevant. There is now a variant of Leaver for whom only the complete severance of every relationship with continental Europe is morally acceptable. These people are now utterly dominant in British politics and are unstoppable.
Are they actually that dominant? My fear is that they are no where near as powerful as they think but have just enough power to open the door to Remain which would be truly catastrophic.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has accepted Theresa May's challenge of a TV Brexit debate on the BBC - but only if it is the two leaders head-to-head.
Under the BBC's plan, the leaders would face questions from a panel of commentators and politicians as well as going head-to-head with each other.
The BBC plan sounds like a two-headed press conference. Not a debate at all. Doubtless several people at the Beeb want their faces on TV. And an appearance fee. Or is that cynical?
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than May's deal is to defeat May's deal, nothing more. After that they expect all the momentum will be with No Deal. May's deal is the existential threat to their clean break. I think their calculations are wrong but there is no way they would back Remain if No Deal was genuinely of the table.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
Canada+ does not work without the backstop, as I said over 200 Tory MPs back May`s Deal out of 318 as do most Tory voters according to Yougov
The feasibility of any deal is now irrelevant. There is now a variant of Leaver for whom only the complete severance of every relationship with continental Europe is morally acceptable. These people are now utterly dominant in British politics and are unstoppable.
Are they actually that dominant? My fear is that they are no where near as powerful as they think but have just enough power to open the door to Remain which would be truly catastrophic.
You are forgetting there is no way May is going to be removed given over 200 Tory MPs even now are still backing the Deal and that gives her a comfortable majority of the Tory Parliamentary Party.
Most Tory voters also back the Deal with YouGov and so does the moderate middle of the country, as a Tory member I for one will be furious if the Deal is not included if there is a referendum and will pressure my MP to ensure it is
I'm not forgetting it at all, I just don't agree with the premise. 200 MPs including the payroll vote (some of whom we know don't really support the deal since Cabinet Members publicly stated and privately leaked they were trying to change it even as May said it could not be) and ultra loyalists. It seems a reasonable supposition that more people back a vote of no confidence than will send in letters, becauo has not ruled it out?
If the rebels cannot even get to the 48 to call a VONC let alone have the numbers to win it clearly a comfortable majority of Tory MPs remain behind the Deal. There is no alternative tactic, the Deal is it, there is no alternative on offer from the EU.
No alternative leader polls any better than May, indeed most poll worse. If necessary May could call a referendum including a Deal option which Deltapoll shows the Deal would win
You may not agree with me, but did you at least notice I addressed my belief why the alternative leader polls are irrelevant, and why those behind the deal now may not be so after it loses? Being behind the deal now does not mean they will always be so.
As for no alternative on offer, I believe you. 400 MPs don't (or claim they don't). When do you expect them to start believing it?
No, as there is no alternative Deal on offer as the EU have made clear.
I also don`t believe there will be 400 MPs voting against the Deal, I also think it is perfectly possible May could well call a referendum with the Deal on it as a last resort, hence she is touring the country selling it. In which case it will be voters who decide and what MPs think will be irrelevant, as Deltapoll shows the Deal would beat No Deal and Remain if included in a referendum
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than May's deal is to defeat May's deal, nothing more. After that they expect all the momentum will be with No Deal. May's deal is the existential threat to their clean break. I think their calculations are wrong but there is no way they would back Remain if No Deal was genuinely of the table.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
Canada+ does not work without the backstop, as I said over 200 Tory MPs back May`s Deal out of 318 as do most Tory voters according to Yougov
The feasibility of any deal is now irrelevant. There is now a variant of Leaver for whom only the complete severance of every relationship with continental Europe is morally acceptable. These people are now utterly dominant in British politics and are unstoppable.
Are they actually that dominant? My fear is that they are no where near as powerful as they think but have just enough power to open the door to Remain ...
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than May's deal is to defeat May's deal, nothing more. After that they expect all the momentum will be with No Deal. May's deal is the existential threat to their clean break. I think their calculations are wrong but there is no way they would back Remain if No Deal was genuinely of the table.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
Canada+ does not work without the backstop, as I said over 200 Tory MPs back May`s Deal out of 318 as do most Tory voters according to Yougov
The feasibility of any deal is now irrelevant. There is now a variant of Leaver for whom only the complete severance of every relationship with continental Europe is morally acceptable. These people are now utterly dominant in British politics and are unstoppable.
As long as May holds No 10 they are stoppable as it is the PM who drives the Brexit agenda and May will do all she can to get the Deal through, I expect even calling a referendum with it included if needed
Certainly this talk of 400 majorities against the Deal etc helps May with the expectations game, even a vote 100 loss on the first vote would almost be a good result in those terms
Yes, and I don't think it's an accident, do you? May's team is pretty good at media management now - the Project Fear Mk 2 about No Deal has really taken off, and now as you say they're talking up the majority against the deal so that any plausible result can be represented as better than expected.
May will ensure it is a three way referendum held by AV if necessary, she could even had a No Deal v Deal first question, winner faces Remain in the second question
The Saar Referendum of 1935 was a three-way vote, but "reunite with Germany" won 90%! No AV required!
You are forgetting there is no way May is going to be removed given over 200 Tory MPs even now are still backing the Deal and that gives her a comfortable majority of the Tory Parliamentary Party.
Most Tory voters also back the Deal with YouGov and so does the moderate middle of the country, as a Tory member I for one will be furious if the Deal is not included if there is a referendum and will pressure my MP to ensure it is
I'm not forgetting it at all, I just don't agree with the premise. 200 MPs including the payroll vote (some of whom we know don't really support the deal since Cabinet Members publicly stated and privately leaked they were trying to change it even as May said it could not be) and ultra loyalists. It seems a reasonable supposition that more people back a vote of no confidence than will send in letters, becauo has not ruled it out?
If the rebels cannot even get to the 48 to call a VONC let alone have the numbers to win it clearly a comfortable majority of Tory MPs remain behind the Deal. There is no alternative tactic, the Deal is it, there is no alternative on offer from the EU.
No alternative leader polls any better than May, indeed most poll worse. If necessary May could call a referendum including a Deal option which Deltapoll shows the Deal would win
You may not agree with me, but did you at least notice I addressed my belief why the alternative leader polls are irrelevant, and why those behind the deal now may not be so after it loses? Being behind the deal now does not mean they will always be so.
As for no alternative on offer, I believe you. 400 MPs don't (or claim they don't). When do you expect them to start believing it?
No, as there is no alternative Deal on offer as the EU have made clear.
I also don`t believe there will be 400 MPs voting against the Deal, I also think it is perfectly possible May could well call a referendum with the Deal on it as a last resort, hence she is touring the country selling it. In which case it will be voters who decide and what MPs think will be irrelevant, as Deltapoll shows the Deal would beat No Deal and Remain if included in a referendum
Out of interest, how many do you think will vote against? And can we bet on it? I reckon about 240 Labour, 50 Tories, 13 Lib Dems, 10 DUP 3PC, 1 Green, 31 SNP. So around 358. In favour, 230 Tories, 2 Labour, 1 LD and Lady Hermon. Approximately 234.. Rest abstain.
You are forgetting there is no way May is going to be removed given over 200 Tory MPs even now are still backing the Deal and that gives her a comfortable majority of the Tory Parliamentary Party.
Most Tory voters also back the Deal with YouGov and so does the moderate middle of the country, as a Tory member I for one will be furious if the Deal is not included if there is a referendum and will pressure my MP to ensure it is
I'm not forgetting it at all, I just don't agree with the premise. 200 MPs including the payroll vote (some of whom we know don't really support the deal since Cabinet Members publicly stated and privately leaked they were trying to change it even as May said it could not be) and ultra loyalists. It seems a reasonable supposition that more people back a vote of no confidence than will send in letters, becauo has not ruled it out?
If the rebels cannot even get to the 48 to call a VONC let alone have the numbers to win it clearly a comfortable majority of Tory MPs remain behind the Deal. There is no alternative tactic, the Deal is it, there is no alternative on offer from the EU.
No alternative leader polls any better than May, indeed most poll worse. If necessary May could call a referendum including a Deal option which Deltapoll shows the Deal would win
You may not agree with me, but did you at least notice I addressed my belief why the alternative leader polls are irrelevant, and why those behind the deal now may not be so after it loses? Being behind the deal now does not mean they will always be so.
As for no alternative on offer, I believe you. 400 MPs don't (or claim they don't). When do you expect them to start believing it?
No, as there is no alternative Deal on offer as the EU have made clear.
I also don`t believe there will be 400 MPs voting against the Deal, I also think it is perfectly possible May could well call a referendum with the Deal on it as a last resort, hence she is touring the country selling it. In which case it will be voters who decide and what MPs think will be irrelevant, as Deltapoll shows the Deal would beat No Deal and Remain if included in a referendum
Out of interest, how many do you think will vote against? And can we bet on it? I reckon about 240 Labour, 50 Tories, 13 Lib Dems, 10 DUP 3PC, 1 Green, 31 SNP. So around 358. In favour, 230 Tories, 2 Labour, 1 LD and Lady Hermon. Approximately 234.. Rest abstain.
There. I have gone for it.
Sadly, I think more than 100 Tories will vote against.
Then he has more faith than I do. If I thought it could win I would be sympathetic to No Deal - certainly I would chose it over Remain any day. I just don't think there is too much opposition in Parliament to make it certain of winning and that in trying to do so they will lose everything.
I don't think the sequencing you lay out is absurd in itself, but it is the very first step that is the key. I could easily see that plan working if the rejection was not by that much, and even that that was the plan all along. But with a bare handful of Labour votes (if any at all) and many more Tory votes against than expected (including remainers who clearly see their chance to prevent Brexit altogether rather than take a managed Brexit), are the chances good the rejection is kept to a level which keeps the deal alive, politically? I
It was reported a little while back that May's team were trying to brief that keeping the loss to under a hundred would be a good result. As pathetic as that sounds, I could almost see it, as it requires flipping 50 or so, which if all other options are rejected sounds possible, if not likely (given objections to things like the backstop are, no matter how it is glossed, going to be fixed with tweaks).
But whatever the public mood MPs seem to be hardening, not softening. Some level of bluster and bluff, perhaps, but the numbers only get worse for May in the Commons. Can she even keep the loss to 100?
And that's a best case!
What Nick has laid out is based on the fact that the MV cannot be amended to include a vote for a second referendum. Since it is not a legislative vote it cannot create the legislation necessary for a referendum nor has it any legal power to force the Government to call one.
So Nick's Point 2 Is still correct. Unless May herself decides she wants a 2nd Referendum or she is removed and replaced by someone who wants one then it will not happen. There is no way Parliament can force one against her will.
All options apart from managed no deal now look increasingly unlikely:
- there is no majority in Parliament for the deal, so the deal fails - there is no means of securing a referendum without legislation that has to be led by the Govt, so no new referendum - there is no 2/3 majority in Parliament for a new election, so no fresh election - there is no obvious route to a VONC that can’t be solved by a new Tory leader
I sadly agree. Here's hoping for the best.
Brexit is bad enough without our MPs choosing to send us over a cliff edge. Make no mistake, if No Deal happens and it's a disaster, I will never forgive those MPs. No-one should forgive them.
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than May's deal is to defeat May's deal, nothing more. After that they expect all the momentum will be with No Deal. May's deal is the existential threat to their clean break. I think their calculations are wrong but there is no way they would back Remain if No Deal was genuinely of the table.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
Canada+ does not work without the backstop, as I said over 200 Tory MPs back May`s Deal out of 318 as do most Tory voters according to Yougov
The feasibility of any deal is now irrelevant. There is now a variant of Leaver for whom only the complete severance of every relationship with continental Europe is morally acceptable. These people are now utterly dominant in British politics and are unstoppable.
Are they actually that dominant? My fear is that they are no where near as powerful as they think but have just enough power to open the door to Remain which would be truly catastrophic.
The Leave pragmatists have the forces of Mogg, Farage, Putin and Corbyn against them - who all desire the horror of No Deal for differing reasons. The pragmatists will be chewed up and spat out as surely as the Remainers before them. This is only going to end one way.
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than May's deal is to defeat May's deal, nothing more. After that they expect all the momentum will be with No Deal. May's deal is the existential threat to their clean break. I think their calculations are wrong but there is no way they would back Remain if No Deal was genuinely of the table.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
Canada+ does not work without the backstop, as I said over 200 Tory MPs back May`s Deal out of 318 as do most Tory voters according to Yougov
The feasibility of any deal is now irrelevant. There is now a variant of Leaver for whom only the complete severance of every relationship with continental Europe is morally acceptable. These people are now utterly dominant in British politics and are unstoppable.
Are they actually that dominant? My fear is that they are no where near as powerful as they think but have just enough power to open the door to Remain which would be truly catastrophic.
The Leave pragmatists have the forces of Mogg, Farage, Putin and Corbyn against them - who all desire the horror of No Deal for differing reasons. The pragmatists will be chewed up and spat out as surely as the Remainers before them. This is only going to end one way.
It isn`t as Leave only won with soft Brexiteers, without them Remain is likely ahead.
However the Deal has broader appeal than either the hard fanatical Brexiteers or Remain
Certainly this talk of 400 majorities against the Deal etc helps May with the expectations game, even a vote 100 loss on the first vote would almost be a good result in those terms
Yes, and I don't think it's an accident, do you? May's team is pretty good at media management now - the Project Fear Mk 2 about No Deal has really taken off, and now as you say they're talking up the majority against the deal so that any plausible result can be represented as better than expected.
You are forgetting there is no way May is going to be removed given over 200 Tory MPs even now are still backing the Deal and that gives her a comfortable majority of the Tory Parliamentary Party.
Most Tory voters also back the Deal with YouGov and so does the moderate middle of the country, as a Tory member I for one will be furious if the Deal is not included if there is a referendum and will pressure my MP to ensure it is
I'm not forgetting it at all, I just don't agree with the premise. 200 MPs including the payroll vote (some of whom we know don't really support the deal since Cabinet Members publicly stated and privately leaked they were trying to change it even as May said it could not be) and ultra loyalists. It seems a reasonable supposition that more people back a vote of no confidence than will send in letters, becauo has not ruled it out?
If the rebels cannot even get to the 48 to call a VONC let alone have the numbers to win it clearly a comfortable majority of Tory MPs remain behind the Deal. There is no alternative tactic, the Deal is it, there is no alternative on offer from the EU.
No alternative leader polls any better than May, indeed most poll worse. If necessary May could call a referendum including a Deal option which Deltapoll shows the Deal would win
You may not agree with me, but did you at least notice I addressed my belief why the alternative leader polls are irrelevant, and why those behind the deal now may not be so after it loses? Being behind the deal now does not mean they will always be so.
As for no alternative on offer, I believe you. 400 MPs don't (or claim they don't). When do you expect them to start believing it?
No, as there is no alternative Deal on offer as the EU have made clear.
I also don`t believe there will be 400 MPs voting against the Deal, I also think it is perfectly possible May could well call a referendum with the Deal on it as a last resort, hence she is touring the country selling it. In which case it will be voters who decide and what MPs think will be irrelevant, as Deltapoll shows the Deal would beat No Deal and Remain if included in a referendum
Out of interest, how many do you think will vote against? And can we bet on it? I reckon about 240 Labour, 50 Tories, 13 Lib Dems, 10 DUP 3PC, 1 Green, 31 SNP. So around 358. In favour, 230 Tories, 2 Labour, 1 LD and Lady Hermon. Approximately 234.. Rest abstain.
There. I have gone for it.
Sadly, I think more than 100 Tories will vote against.
You are forgetting there is no way May is going to be removed given over 200 Tory MPs even now are still backing the Deal and that gives her a comfortable majority of the Tory Parliamentary Party.
Most Tory voters also back the Deal with YouGov and so does the moderate middle of the country, as a Tory member I for one will be furious if the Deal is not included if there is a referendum and will pressure my MP to ensure it is
I'm not forgetting it at all, I just don't agree with the premise. 200 MPs including the payroll vote (some of whom we know don't really support the deal since Cabinet Members publicly stated and privately leaked they were trying to change it even as May said it could not be) and ultra loyalists. It seems a reasonable supposition that more people back a vote of no confidence than will send in letters, becauo has not ruled it out?
If the rebels cannot even get to the 48 to call a VONC let alone have the numbers to win it clearly a comfortable majority of Tory MPs remain behind the Deal. There is no alternative tactic, the Deal is it, there is no alternative on offer from the EU.
No alternative leader polls any better than May, indeed most poll worse. If necessary May could call a referendum including a Deal option which Deltapoll shows the Deal would win
You may not agree with me, but did you at least notice I addressed my belief why the alternative leader polls are irrelevant, and why those behind the deal now may not be so after it loses? Being behind the deal now does not mean they will always be so.
As for no alternative on offer, I believe you. 400 MPs don't (or claim they don't). When do you expect them to start believing it?
No, as there is no alternative Deal on offer as the EU have made clear.
I also don`t believe there will be 400 MPs voting against the Deal, I also think it is perfectly possible May could well call a referendum with the Deal on it as a last resort, hence she is touring the country selling it. In which case it will be voters who decide and what MPs think will be irrelevant, as Deltapoll shows the Deal would beat No Deal and Remain if included in a referendum
Out of interest, how many do you think will vote against? And can we bet on it? I reckon about 240 Labour, 50 Tories, 13 Lib Dems, 10 DUP 3PC, 1 Green, 31 SNP. So around 358. In favour, 230 Tories, 2 Labour, 1 LD and Lady Hermon. Approximately 234.. Rest abstain.
There. I have gone for it.
That would be at the better end of expectations for May and would see over 70% of Tory MPs back the Deal, would enable a second vote probably
You are forgetting there is no way May is going to be removed given over 200 Tory MPs even now are still backing the Deal and that gives her a comfortable majority of the Tory Parliamentary Party.
Most Tory voters also back the Deal with YouGov and so does the moderate middle of the country, as a Tory member I for one will be furious if the Deal is not included if there is a referendum and will pressure my MP to ensure it is
I'm not forgetting it at all, I just don't agree with the premise. 200 MPs including the payroll vote (some of whom we know don't really support the deal since Cabinet Members publicly stated and privately leaked they were trying to change it even as May said it could not be) and ultra loyalists. It seems a reasonable supposition that more people back a vote of no confidence than will send in letters, becauo has not ruled it out?
If the rebels cannot even get to the 48 to call a VONC let alone have the numbers to win it clearly a comfortable majority of Tory MPs remain behind the Deal. There is no alternative tactic, the Deal is it, there is no alternative on offer from the EU.
No alternative leader polls any better than May, indeed most poll worse. If necessary May could call a referendum including a Deal option which Deltapoll shows the Deal would win
You may not agree with me, but did you at least notice I addressed my belief why the alternative leader polls are irrelevant, and why those behind the deal now may not be so after it loses? Being behind the deal now does not mean they will always be so.
As for no alternative on offer, I believe you. 400 MPs don't (or claim they don't). When do you expect them to start believing it?
No, as there is no alternative Deal on offer as the EU have made clear.
I alsdum
Out of interest, how many do you think will vote against? And can we bet on it? I reckon about 240 Labour, 50 Tories, 13 Lib Dems, 10 DUP 3PC, 1 Green, 31 SNP. So around 358. In favour, 230 Tories, 2 Labour, 1 LD and Lady Hermon. Approximately 234.. Rest abstain.
There. I have gone for it.
Sadly, I think more than 100 Tories will vote against.
Crumbs . It is dead then surely?
Almost certainly. Too many too strongly opposed for it to have another go.
I think after TM loses the MV she will be NC by her mp’s and if BJ makes it to the ballot the membership will choose him as next leader and we will leave with no deal and I think we will make a success of it much to the dismay of remainers and the EU
Then he has more faith than I do. If I thought it could win I would be sympathetic to No Deal - certainly I would chose it over Remain any day. I just don't think there is too much opposition in Parliament to make it certain of winning and that in trying to do so they will lose everything.
A contrubutory factor to restaurants getting loud is that bigger groups make more noise as they shout at each other down the table. As society has got richer bigger groups dine out.
Also towards Christmas groups celebrate with a Christmas meal.
Friday nights and weekends are to be avoided. Wednesday lunch times seem more sedate.
Can Theresa May herself pivot to Remain if her deal is defeated? Whatever she entered politics to achieve, whatever Mayism is, it was not Brexit. There's a fly-on-the-wall style video David Cameron made for The Sun, iirc, when he talks about stepping back from a problem in order to understand the aim. What will Theresa May be thinking about on the flight home from Argentina? Is no Brexit better than no deal?
Well Dominic Raab and others have concluded No Brexit is better than this Brexit, and it is not much more of a leap for plenty of others to go from No Brexit is better than No Deal. Whether May is among them, I think there will be several Tories, beyond the regulars for whom it is already obviously the case that No Brexit is better than any Brexit, who make that switch.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
Canada+ does not work without the backstop, as I said over 200 Tory MPs back May`s Deal out of 318 as do most Tory voters according to Yougov
The feasibility of any deal is now irrelevant. There is now a variant of Leaver for whom only the complete severance of every relationship with continental Europe is morally acceptable. These people are now utterly dominant in British politics and are unstoppable.
Are they actually that dominant? My fear is that they are no where near as powerful as they think but have just enough power to open the door to Remain which would be truly catastrophic.
The bigger danger is they will bring in a Corbyn government. A hard Brexit plus the 1970s policies on steroids for five years would take 25 years to recover from. People just getting their careers on track following the financial crisis would not see a competitive economy again until they neared retirement age. Of course, they probably wouldn't have a retirement age after that carnage.
I wonder how May would vote if she is removed. I would want to stick around as an MP at least until this phase of Brexit is done, and clearly she would feel free to vote whichever way she wanted no matter the new party direction.
They really haven't you know. The whole point of the ERG mob and those like Raab saying that No Brexit is better than May's deal is to defeat May's deal, nothing more. After that they expect all the momentum will be with No Deal. May's deal is the existential threat to their clean break. I think their calculations are wrong but there is no way they would back Remain if No Deal was genuinely of the table.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
Canada+ does not work without the backstop, as I said over 200 Tory MPs back May`s Deal out of 318 as do most Tory voters according to Yougov
The feasibility of any deal is now irrelevant. There is now a variant of Leaver for whom only the complete severance of every relationship with continental Europe is morally acceptable. These people are now utterly dominant in British politics and are unstoppable.
Are they actually that dominant? My fear is that they are no where near as powerful as they think but have just enough power to open the door to Remain which would be truly catastrophic.
The Leave pragmatists have the forces of Mogg, Farage, Putin and Corbyn against them - who all desire the horror of No Deal for differing reasons. The pragmatists will be chewed up and spat out as surely as the Remainers before them. This is only going to end one way.
It isn`t as Leave only won with soft Brexiteers, without them Remain is likely ahead.
However the Deal has broader appeal than either the hard fanatical Brexiteers or Remain
The middle 75% of the public would be happy with the deal. It is only those that want the UK to be driven by a total war style of politics that oppose it.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has accepted Theresa May's challenge of a TV Brexit debate on the BBC - but only if it is the two leaders head-to-head.
Under the BBC's plan, the leaders would face questions from a panel of commentators and politicians as well as going head-to-head with each other.
The BBC plan sounds like a two-headed press conference. Not a debate at all. Doubtless several people at the Beeb want their faces on TV. And an appearance fee. Or is that cynical?
I'm not sure Corbyn and May can carry an hour long debate on one topic though. Audience questions is a no-no, so a panel is one viable option..
The bigger danger is they will bring in a Corbyn government. A hard Brexit plus the 1970s policies on steroids for five years would take 25 years to recover from. People just getting their careers on track following the financial crisis would not see a competitive economy again until they neared retirement age. Of course, they probably wouldn't have a retirement age after that carnage.
A Remain victory is many magnitudes more dangerous than a Corbyn government. If that was the price to pay for Leave I would take it like a shot.
Interesting explanation of Brexit by Eric Kaufmann at 36 mins, 36 secs on this video:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdQaD_RaZ4I
Leave voting was a proxy for opposition to non-EU immigration? It's a bit of a stretch.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFjfbL1KWNI
Half the country voted Leave so I'm sure you can find examples of all motivations but as an overall explanation it is unconvincing. And note that the man in your clip does not really support Kaufmann's case in AndyJS's video.
I have no idea how this guy got kidnapped by another gang, he is clearly an upstanding member of the community who never did any wrong....
A teenage thug who was handed a suspended sentence for wielding a zombie knife in a shocking street attack had previously been let off with only a community order after threatening a 12-year-old schoolboy with a weapon.
There was public outrage last week when Joshua Gardner, 18, avoided jail despite being filmed brandishing the massive knife on the streets of Croydon, South London – and hammering at a car window as he tried to attack the terrified driver.
Now The Mail on Sunday can reveal that three months before the crime in May, Gardner was handed a youth rehabilitation order for attempting to rob a 12-year-old.
Talking of upstanding members of the community...mum sounds a right charmer, no idea where the kid got his racist ideas from...
Mother of 'school bully who waterboarded a Syrian refugee on the playground' is a convicted racist who spat at a chip shop owner and called him a 'P**i terrorist'
Interesting explanation of Brexit by Eric Kaufmann at 36 mins, 36 secs on this video:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdQaD_RaZ4I
Leave voting was a proxy for opposition to non-EU immigration? It's a bit of a stretch.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFjfbL1KWNI
Half the country voted Leave so I'm sure you can find examples of all motivations but as an overall explanation it is unconvincing. And note that the man in your clip does not really support Kaufmann's case in AndyJS's video.
Yes, I'm not a fan of Eric Kaufmann's work. He seems to project a lot of his own identity issues onto others. I just posted that clip because it perfectly fits your comment.
Comments
For the umpteenth time, no one over here in NI believed seriously there would be border checkpoints and the like returning. It was however waved about like a threat of war by people, next to none of whom appeared to actually come from here, trying to serve their own ends. It was an 80% politically motivated stick.
RE: Trump. Keep an eye out for Felix Sater, the third name of the Russian linked triumverate that I mentioned on here a long time ago. Manafort is already an open story and noted as having rather close links to the Russian government. Carter Page is believed to be an actual full on agent for the Russian government. Sater, who has notable mob/government (lot of overlap there) connections back in Russia, has now emerged in questions to Trump himself.
In some areas Sater has the potential to damage Trump as much as Cohen.
Some of this whole story does bring in local players. Whilst I think Carole Cadwalladr gets a fair and correct amount of stick for being a hysterical zealot who is blending what are facts with a politically inspired commentary to meet her own Brexit bias, there is some actual worth noting information in there.
2. Referendum proposal either fails, or is dismissed as impractical by May.
3. Labour presses VONC. Fails.
4. May promises to try to get critics' points considered, goes to Brussels.
5. May gets token concessions, returns, and says (glossing madly) you've got most of what you wanted, there's no time left, take it or accept No Deal.
6. MPs shrink from No Deal and accept the slightly tweaked plan.
Nothing is certain, but with a dogged PM and a lack of united purpose among opponents, I wouldn't bet against her.
Stirring.
The momentum will only go one way I think. Best hold off on our blue passports.
(PS I get your point but still there are limits - all this online stuff has to be created and stored somewhere. It can't go on increasing infinitely.)
I would expect first call is the EU commission and if possible a cross party group to consider Norway and a referendum
If she says nothing has changed , well she will of course be no confidenced
If she has an eye to legacy she has the opportunity to act in a collegiate manner and take the country with her
She is trusted far more than anyone else on brexit
And without ongoing contributions. Norway will be envious that's for sure!
Any Brexit-supporting MP who doesn't back TM's Deal on 11/12/18 is in effect shooting themselves in the foot, because any 2nd referendum will abort Brexit.
I suspect most on here, whether originally Leavers or Remainers, left or right, are of the same mind.
Most Tory voters also back the Deal with YouGov and so does the moderate middle of the country, as a Tory member I for one will be furious if the Deal is not included if there is a referendum and will pressure my MP to ensure it is
I don't think the sequencing you lay out is absurd in itself, but it is the very first step that is the key. I could easily see that plan working if the rejection was not by that much, and even that that was the plan all along. But with a bare handful of Labour votes (if any at all) and many more Tory votes against than expected (including remainers who clearly see their chance to prevent Brexit altogether rather than take a managed Brexit), are the chances good the rejection is kept to a level which keeps the deal alive, politically? I
It was reported a little while back that May's team were trying to brief that keeping the loss to under a hundred would be a good result. As pathetic as that sounds, I could almost see it, as it requires flipping 50 or so, which if all other options are rejected sounds possible, if not likely (given objections to things like the backstop are, no matter how it is glossed, going to be fixed with tweaks).
But whatever the public mood MPs seem to be hardening, not softening. Some level of bluster and bluff, perhaps, but the numbers only get worse for May in the Commons. Can she even keep the loss to 100?
And that's a best case!
Next year, is a different matter.
Deal is the least worst option, even if it enthuses few it as Deltapoll shows head to head it beats Remain or No Deal comfortably
I do think those calling for it think it is a slam dunk. Many on here do not
Interesting times!
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1068203715050577921?s=20
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1068243124076593152?s=20
May will ensure it is a three way referendum held by AV if necessary, she could even had a No Deal v Deal first question, winner faces Remain in the second question
Tory MPs, if they were not going to remove her a long time ago, are doing the right thing in giving her a chance to get her deal through, but past that? What reason to keep her around? Other people poll better in a theoretical GE? They sure as hell don't want a GE right now - even if you think they'd still win, they need to sort Brexit first. To try a different approach? In which case why not go with someone who has not ruled it out?
Have a good nights rest everyone
Good night folks
In terms of ever-maximised subjective pleasure for minimal resources in the far-flung future, where do we end up once we start talking about the very limits of physics? Nozick's experience machine I guess. (I've never seen "The Matrix" but I understand the idea there is pretty much the same!)
If I were to discuss this with Raab and told him I think No Deal Brexit was worse than Remaining what could he say to me? He'd disagree, I'm sure, but since he feels the same about May's Deal how could he object to me voting Remain? Just because he would have another option he likes better than Remain doesn't mean every Leaver will.
And the remainers don't need to convince all leavers of that. Just a few.
So Nick's Point 2 Is still correct. Unless May herself decides she wants a 2nd Referendum or she is removed and replaced by someone who wants one then it will not happen. There is no way Parliament can force one against her will.
Yes, in these people's eyes EU membership is a pact with Satan. To describe Theresa's deal as worse than EU membership... Well, insults just don't get more comprehensive and withering than that. But it will interesting to see Canada++++ (or whatever) being similarly vilified when Theresa's hapless successor proposes it in a few months. No Deal is the only show in town.
Under the BBC's plan, the leaders would face questions from a panel of commentators and politicians as well as going head-to-head with each other.
Even with the AV system, while "the deal" is more likely to win, it would still need to be at least in 2nd place on the 1st round. This is by no means a certainty, particularly if the electorate doesn't vote tactically in the 1st round, believing that they would have a chance to vote against their least favoured option in the 2nd round.
I once wrote a scene in a fantasy story which involved a crucial parliamentary vote, deferred due to abstentions, coming back for a second vote at which abstention was not a permissible option, that's how much I don't like abstentions.
I cannot think why I have yet to make it as a writer
No alternative leader polls any better than May, indeed most poll worse. If necessary May could call a referendum including a Deal option which Deltapoll shows the Deal would win
As for no alternative on offer, I believe you. 400 MPs don't (or claim they don't). When do you expect them to start believing it?
- there is no majority in Parliament for the deal, so the deal fails
- there is no means of securing a referendum without legislation that has to be led by the Govt, so no new referendum
- there is no 2/3 majority in Parliament for a new election, so no fresh election
- there is no obvious route to a VONC that can’t be solved by a new Tory leader
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46414477
I have had my power nap, only 5hrs until big fight this evening...
I also don`t believe there will be 400 MPs voting against the Deal, I also think it is perfectly possible May could well call a referendum with the Deal on it as a last resort, hence she is touring the country selling it. In which case it will be voters who decide and what MPs think will be irrelevant, as Deltapoll shows the Deal would beat No Deal and Remain if included in a referendum
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saar_status_referendum,_1935
So around 358.
In favour, 230 Tories, 2 Labour, 1 LD and Lady Hermon.
Approximately 234..
Rest abstain.
There. I have gone for it.
"Technology
How Restaurants Got So Loud
Fashionable minimalism replaced plush opulence. That’s a recipe for commotion.
Kate Wagner"
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/11/how-restaurants-got-so-loud/576715/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falkland_Islands_status_referendum,_1986
However the Deal has broader appeal than either the hard fanatical Brexiteers or Remain
Also towards Christmas groups celebrate with a Christmas meal.
Friday nights and weekends are to be avoided. Wednesday lunch times seem more sedate.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46414052
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdQaD_RaZ4I
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6450961/Teenage-thug-spared-jail-let-community-order-mugging-boy-12.html
Talking of upstanding members of the community...mum sounds a right charmer, no idea where the kid got his racist ideas from... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6450755/Mother-school-bully-waterboarded-Syrian-refugee-playground-convicted-racist.html