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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s now down to an evens chance in the betting that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th
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We must all give thanks to the ERG.
They’ve run the greatest sleeper operation in history.
We must thank them, in fact we must thank all Leavers.
I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability, and I want you to know that we are with you, hatta al-nasr, hatta al-nasr, hatta al-Quds.
Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, everyone.
I wonder how much we exported to them when he was appointed International Trade Secretary.
He has nothing to lose from humiliating himself for May to keep his job.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/cohen-plea-shocker-exposes-trump-camp-lies-about-russia-dealings-1384409667616
I know I keep banging on about this, but there isn't 1 UK news show that would provide nearly this level of information and analysis on a complicated topic like this. Instead we get Question Time....
Plagues ? Pestilence ?
- May wins MV by skin of her teeth and a few helpful Labour abstentions
- DUP withdraw the C&S deal
- Labour VONC
- ERG support Labour VONC in a fit of truly glorious self-destructive malice
- General Elex 31st Jan
- EUCO reluctantly agrees a three month extension to A50
- DUP withdraw the C&S deal : MAYBE
- Labour VONC : MAYBE
- ERG support Labour VONC in a fit of truly glorious self-destructive malice : ZERO CHANCE
- General Elex 31st Jan : SEE ABOVE
- EUCO reluctantly agrees a three month extension to A50 : SEE ABOVE
It is upto you
I am lucky as I back TM deal but if not remain
It is upto you
I am lucky as I back TM deal but if not remain
It assumes that:
- There will be a Tory MP no-confidence vote, before Christmas, and
- That she will lose it, and
- That she will stand down as PM immediately or within a few days of losing it, rather than remaining as PM until a successor is chosen.
There's no way that's a 25% chance.
On the 'meaningful vote', this is a curious game of three-way chicken. For it to fail, those who above all want to avoid the disaster of a crash-out, and/or would prefer Remain, have to ally themselves with those who prefer the disaster of a crash-out, and who have been working for decades for us to Leave. At the moment a lot of MPs say they subscribe to that alliance, but it's a logical nonsense unless both sides are simply miscalculating badly. Maybe they are.
As thats where she is headed if she pulls that stunt.
I might write to my MP and ask him to support the deal. He's Labour but potentially amenable I suspect (John Mann)
I read the trend very differently. What is happening day by day is that the numbers of Tory MPs publically pledged to vote against May's deal is steadily growing. It reached 90 or so a couple of days back and today it's reached the 100 mark. Today's i also reports that a number of PPSs are set to join the revolt, so the payroll vote is looking flaky too.
Telling character trait difference between the two sides.
Dear Nus,
We are extremely concerned at the destructive and irresponsible response from some Conservatives to the Prime Minister’s draft Withdrawal Agreement from the EU. The PM has done a remarkable job, in incredibly difficult circumstances, in agreeing an outline deal with the EU which fully implements Brexit and respects the result of the referendum. As you know, under the deal we would leave the CAP and CFP, free movement of EU workers would end, and after the end of the transition period we will no longer subject to ECJ interference in our domestic affairs. At the same time, the outline future relationship would give us very good access to the EU markets, without the burdensome obligations. It is impressive that she has managed to get the EU to agree to this, and very clear that they won’t make further concessions.
What is less impressive is the response of the ERG and some other people in the party who seem hell-bent on destructive tactics which will either lead to Brexit being cancelled in chaos after another divisive referendum, or even worse to a cliff-edge crash-out which would be massively damaging to the economy and to ordinary people, and probably leave the Conservative Party out of power for a generation – and deservedly so. Even worse, it won’t be a moderate centre-left party which will take power in that scenario, but Jeremy Corbyn’s extreme hard-left party.
We know that you will be getting lots of messages from people saying that Mrs May’s deal is ‘betrayal’ or ‘not really Brexit’, but this is utter nonsense, and in many cases actively dishonest, in that it confuses the transition period with the end point.
We hope therefore that you will join other sensible, pragmatic Conservative MPs in supporting the PM in trying to get this deal agreed.
As I said something about the mindset of Leave vs Remain supporters.
May = Gladstone
Corbyn = Disraeli
WA = Reform Act
Or am I missing something?
https://www.wftv.com/news/politics/absentee-ballot-fraud-allegations-roil-north-carolina-us-house-race/880448965
I have him down as a "maybe"
If we accept the idea that May has limited time left it might be a smart play to do so politically. Isn't it a majority of Conservative backbenchers?
Just pointing out the difference in class between the two sides.
Q1: Please rank the following outcomes in order of preference
1. Leave the EU with no deal
2. Leave the EU with the PM's deal
3. Leave the EU with PM's deal, but on every street corner we place an animatronic Jacob Rees Mogg that repeats the words "vassalage" endlessly until the backstop ends. London to be renamed West Belgium.
4. Leave the EU with a "Norway+" deal
5. Extend Article 50, re-open negotiations. Close down parliament. Hide behind the curtains until the EU forgets we exist.
6. Revoke article 50, remain in the EU on terms as similar as possible as what we have now except every family loses their free owl.
7. Leave the EU, then immediately sign a new accession treaty, waiving all opt-outs and agreeing to join the Euro and Schengen area. Michel Barnier to appear on all UK banknotes.
8. Have cake; do not eat
9. Eat cake; do not have
10. Neither have nor eat cake
11. Type 2 diabetes.
12. Invade France.
Q2: How many years must it be before we can again have another once-in-a-lifetime vote?
1. 0
2. 1
3. 1 and a bit
4. 2
5. 2-ish
6. 3 is a generation, right?
7. Okay five and that's my once-in-a-lifetime offer
My best guess it is sone if it is part of the push to prevent the vote altogether by showing how big a loss it will be, I position I think is pretty shameful as being clear what everyone thinks on the deal
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2018/11/30/25002-20181130ARTFIG00058-depuis-l-argentine-la-violente-charge-de-macron-contre-hollande.php
William, Though, has always kept his good humour without wavering in his intensity.
To me, the difference between another referendum and the 2016 one is that this one is much clearer about outcomes. The other one offered the status quo and some nebulous, undefined, sunnily lit paradise.
That gives a second referendum more authority.
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1068462282672357377
can you outline the consequences of staying in over the next 10 years ?
And when have you ever not see cranes on the skyline in London?
Makes Faisail Islam look like a neutral observer.
I agree it makes it very difficult for them to row back, and I'd have thought more would have left some wiggle room - especially as it's still not clear to me what the likely alternative outcome is, and most of the options seem at least as sub-optimal as this.
The government has duly negotiated the best exit deal that it could. Absent fatuous conspiracy theories, that is by definition a true statement, since if it could have done a better one it would have done so. This then is the logical end of the democratic process that was started by the referendum vote of the public and ratified by the article 50 vote of the politicians.
The deal should therefore be passed by parliament. No ifs no buts, we should leave on the due date under this withdrawal agreement. And ‘Honourable Members’ need only live up to their moniker for this to happen, because the only MPs who can with integrity vote against the deal are the small minority who opposed the triggering of article 50.
Perhaps it's unfair to hold leavers to the Brexit they campaigned for- they didn't know what they were doing, bless them. They were sold a false prospectus. Mostly by themselves, it has to be said. But still false.
But no. I know no pity. People need to learn the hard way that their actions have consequences.
And what is May or her successor going to agree in stage 2 of Brexit if the WA is in place?
The idea that any of the 3 options are going to be any clearer than the straightforward question of leave or stay is just a bit silly.
People voted and then reliquished control back to Mr Cameron who soiled himself and passed over to Mrs May. She is hence responsible for the current predicament - her poor skills at bringing her party along with her and the current mess is entirely on her shoulders.
All we need now is a king.
Who's the biggest Cnut in British politics?
For me, what I'm concerned with about the WA is that we are signing something which we cannot get out of without someone else's permission. Now it might be that all the comments like "they don't like the backstop any more than we do" turn out to be true. But I'm just not convinced.
That might be true, but it's also sad, Though I'm happy to debate you on the point.
But people do change their minds a bit. I used to be against a second referendum for instance.