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  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    And if the referendum had been held, we'd have had two campaigns (as we had in 2016), with one holding a worthless piece of paper, and the other claiming they were the one true Brexit, with the polling about immigration and other matters backing them up.

    We'd be in exactly the position we are now. The document would have been as useless as Chamberlain's piece of paper.

    Not exactly.

    We would have had 2 campaigns, but the paper would be official.

    If Leave won, only the things on the paper would be the basis of the next steps.

    The Faragists might have got the vote over the line again, but unless "end FoM immediately" was on the paper it wouldn't be the negotiating red line
    Which makes the paper worthless. Brexit has been driven by the likes of Farage and UKIP, with a load of other people holding their noses to support them. Any leave that did not meet their requirements would not solve anything.

    As we're seeing with May's deal.
    May's deal solves an upcoming potential economic crash whilst leaving the EU. That's it. That's all there really is to it. People can pontificate about vassalage or whatever but the clock is ticking and it's the only deal on the table.

    @Alex expresses my thoughts on the matter better than I can this morning.
    Yep, agree with that. Yet the deal would never have got anywhere near the first referendum .

    Cameron's deal looks brilliant in hindsight. :(
    Cameron's deal wasn't backed by a treaty and therefore not worth a bucket of cold piss.
    Which aspect of the deal were you concerned about not being watertight?
    I'll opt for the 'bucket' aspect.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Cyclefree said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    May's deal would be fine w/o the backstop. There are 5 days set aside for debate in the Commons, with scope for amendments. If the Commons does its job it can send her away with the backing of Parliament to climb out of the hole she has dug by confronting the EU with a deal-minus-backstop / no-deal choice.

    There is no deal minus the backstop. The backstop IS the deal.
    If there's no movement from the EU then it is no deal.
    But the commons doesn't want no deal, so why would they vote for a course of action which would inevitably lead there?
    ** Bangs head on table **

    Parliament has already voted for No Deal. That is what will inevitably happen on March 29th.

    Unless the current deal - the only one on offer - is accepted. As it looks as if it won’t be, then No Deal it is.

    If Parliament wants to remain in the EU then it will have to do something to bring that about.
    Why is it so hard for the basic fact to be understood.

    By 29th March we either agree a deal with EU or leave without a deal.

    There is nothing that Parliament can do unilaterally to alter that (subject to legal challenges).
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Roger said:

    Listening to Mark Carney begs the question;'Why are we allowing the tail to wag the dog'.

    This country has become a farce. The interesting parts which are ALL Remain should hive themselves off and leave the crap areas to organise themselves as they wish. We could start with London declaring UDI. A Monaco in the heart of England.

    Stoke Hartlepool Preston Sunderland Boston Jaywick Northern Ireland ,,,,, Leave them to their own choices

    ........and if you're going to miss them hoot your horn.......

    Monaco is the favoured hiding place for crooks, money launderers and financial scammers of all types. A place which if it appears anywhere in a deal is a bloody great red flag that something dodgy is going on. A place which has no use for integrity. And that is your preferred exemplar for London, is it?!?!

    I’d take any of the other places you mention in a heartbeat over Monaco. Preston has the beautiful Forest of Bowland nearby. Northern Ireland has glorious countrysideand a wonderful arts scene. The North East has great beaches and countryside etc etc.

    Monaco is full of vulgar materialists like Mr and Mrs Green.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    philiph said:

    Cyclefree said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    May's deal would be fine w/o the backstop. There are 5 days set aside for debate in the Commons, with scope for amendments. If the Commons does its job it can send her away with the backing of Parliament to climb out of the hole she has dug by confronting the EU with a deal-minus-backstop / no-deal choice.

    There is no deal minus the backstop. The backstop IS the deal.
    If there's no movement from the EU then it is no deal.
    But the commons doesn't want no deal, so why would they vote for a course of action which would inevitably lead there?
    ** Bangs head on table **

    Parliament has already voted for No Deal. That is what will inevitably happen on March 29th.

    Unless the current deal - the only one on offer - is accepted. As it looks as if it won’t be, then No Deal it is.

    If Parliament wants to remain in the EU then it will have to do something to bring that about.
    Why is it so hard for the basic fact to be understood.

    By 29th March we either agree a deal with EU or leave without a deal.

    There is nothing that Parliament can do unilaterally to alter that (subject to legal challenges).
    Well, that isn’t true. Parliament can instruct the executive to ask to extend or rescind Article 50.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548
    John_M said:

    Of course they would. Or rather, the ECJ would. Even as an ardent Brexiteer, I am totally in agreement with that stance. You can't have a multi-lateral organisation where a bunch of politicos can cut side deals to ameliorate one member's domestic political woes - it really would be all over for the Project if that were the case.

    I utterly disagree with you on that, and think that you, as an ardent Brexiteer - aren't looking at it realistically.

    A multi-lateral organisation needs to be able to make decisions, and outside parties to those decisions need to know those decisions will be implemented. That has to be done at some level, and cannot be done by negotiating individually with each individual member state.

    The EU negotiating a deal with Cameron, then tearing it up, would be disastrous to the EU for many reasons. They'll be seen as utterly untrustworthy. Which is, I guess, the angle you're approaching it from ...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Lol, the Germans asking the French to give up their UNSC seat to the EU. That could have been Germany asking the UK...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited November 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    May's deal would be fine w/o the backstop. There are 5 days set aside for debate in the Commons, with scope for amendments. If the Commons does its job it can send her away with the backing of Parliament to climb out of the hole she has dug by confronting the EU with a deal-minus-backstop / no-deal choice.

    There is no deal minus the backstop. The backstop IS the deal.
    If there's no movement from the EU then it is no deal.
    But the commons doesn't want no deal, so why would they vote for a course of action which would inevitably lead there?
    ** Bangs head on table **

    Parliament has already voted for No Deal. That is what will inevitably happen on March 29th.

    Unless the current deal - the only one on offer - is accepted. As it looks as if it won’t be, then No Deal it is.

    If Parliament wants to remain in the EU then it will have to do something to bring that about.
    They'll probably realise when France (Oh and they do have this facility already as my car took a while to come back to the UK after breaking down) implements customs checks on everything and declares "Le Touquet" null and void.
    I expect the Dutch, being more reasonable than the French will give a week's grace but then start insisting on origin papers and whatnot for British containers passing through Rotterdam which they won't have.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited November 2018

    philiph said:

    Cyclefree said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    May's deal would be fine w/o the backstop. There are 5 days set aside for debate in the Commons, with scope for amendments. If the Commons does its job it can send her away with the backing of Parliament to climb out of the hole she has dug by confronting the EU with a deal-minus-backstop / no-deal choice.

    There is no deal minus the backstop. The backstop IS the deal.
    If there's no movement from the EU then it is no deal.
    But the commons doesn't want no deal, so why would they vote for a course of action which would inevitably lead there?
    ** Bangs head on table **

    Parliament has already voted for No Deal. That is what will inevitably happen on March 29th.

    Unless the current deal - the only one on offer - is accepted. As it looks as if it won’t be, then No Deal it is.

    If Parliament wants to remain in the EU then it will have to do something to bring that about.
    Why is it so hard for the basic fact to be understood.

    By 29th March we either agree a deal with EU or leave without a deal.

    There is nothing that Parliament can do unilaterally to alter that (subject to legal challenges).
    Well, that isn’t true. Parliament can instruct the executive to ask to extend or rescind Article 50.
    'to ask' implies agreement / permission is required.

    Therefore Parliament can not unilaterally alter the binary options of accept a deal or leave with no deal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289
    MaxPB said:

    Lol, the Germans asking the French to give up their UNSC seat to the EU. That could have been Germany asking the UK...

    And your point is? Do you think France will comply?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    Of course they would. Or rather, the ECJ would. Even as an ardent Brexiteer, I am totally in agreement with that stance. You can't have a multi-lateral organisation where a bunch of politicos can cut side deals to ameliorate one member's domestic political woes - it really would be all over for the Project if that were the case.

    I utterly disagree with you on that, and think that you, as an ardent Brexiteer - aren't looking at it realistically.

    A multi-lateral organisation needs to be able to make decisions, and outside parties to those decisions need to know those decisions will be implemented. That has to be done at some level, and cannot be done by negotiating individually with each individual member state.

    The EU negotiating a deal with Cameron, then tearing it up, would be disastrous to the EU for many reasons. They'll be seen as utterly untrustworthy. Which is, I guess, the angle you're approaching it from ...
    It wasn't 'the EU' negotiating a deal with Cameron. It was the European Council. That's but one aspect of the overall apparatus. I think we'll have to agree to disagree, though. It's water under the bridge.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963

    philiph said:

    Cyclefree said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    May's deal would be fine w/o the backstop. There are 5 days set aside for debate in the Commons, with scope for amendments. If the Commons does its job it can send her away with the backing of Parliament to climb out of the hole she has dug by confronting the EU with a deal-minus-backstop / no-deal choice.

    There is no deal minus the backstop. The backstop IS the deal.
    If there's no movement from the EU then it is no deal.
    But the commons doesn't want no deal, so why would they vote for a course of action which would inevitably lead there?
    ** Bangs head on table **

    Parliament has already voted for No Deal. That is what will inevitably happen on March 29th.

    Unless the current deal - the only one on offer - is accepted. As it looks as if it won’t be, then No Deal it is.

    If Parliament wants to remain in the EU then it will have to do something to bring that about.
    Why is it so hard for the basic fact to be understood.

    By 29th March we either agree a deal with EU or leave without a deal.

    There is nothing that Parliament can do unilaterally to alter that (subject to legal challenges).
    Well, that isn’t true. Parliament can instruct the executive to ask to extend or rescind Article 50.
    Which rescinding or extension may or may not even be possible. Even with the best will of the 27 (and when has that ever been on display to the UK?)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    MaxPB said:

    Lol, the Germans asking the French to give up their UNSC seat to the EU. That could have been Germany asking the UK...

    Could they actually do that? And would it mean that the EU would only ever have one vote because no member states would be eligible for the non-permanent seats?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited November 2018
    Nice article.

    Unlike getting stuck in litigation, however, there is a very simple way to extricate ourselves from the Brexit mess. It simply requires MPs to ratify the deal on the table. It really is as simple as that, but unfortunately it doesn't look as though it's going to happen.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, the Germans asking the French to give up their UNSC seat to the EU. That could have been Germany asking the UK...

    And your point is? Do you think France will comply?
    It's a very sensible idea. Germany has said it will act on behalf of the EU when it assumes its temporary membership next year.
  • Mr. Max, mildly surprised that's happened so soon.

    Perhaps a consequence of the EU army, and the future of a single EU defence policy to sit alongside the foreign high panjandrum?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2018

    On the general issue of referendums, I agree that they should only be offered if the Government sees both alternatives as defensible. Giving people a choice between placebo and poison on the assumption that they'll prefer the placebo is reckless.

    OblitusSumMe's Rule of Referendums is that the question should always be between the status quo and an alternative that the Government recommends to the nation.

    The Original Sin of the Brexit Referendum is that the government attempted to use a forced choice to coerce the British public into voting with the government. Much as I oppose Brexit in principle, we wouldn't be in nearly so much bother had Leaving been the policy of the government before the referendum vote.

    We shouldn't repeat this mistake with a second referendum, although the question then is whether the status quo option is our current EU membership, or the No Deal that current legislation commits us to in the absence of a change.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289
    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, the Germans asking the French to give up their UNSC seat to the EU. That could have been Germany asking the UK...

    Could they actually do that? And would it mean that the EU would only ever have one vote because no member states would be eligible for the non-permanent seats?
    The composition of the security council is hardwired into the UN so in practice it’s not possible without a completely new world order.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    edited November 2018

    Total net migration = 273k
    EU net migration = 74k
    nonEU net migration = 248k
    EU + nonEU = 322k
    (figures from https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-immigration/uk-sees-net-migration-of-273000-in-year-to-june-driven-by-non-eu-arrivals-idUKKCN1NY13V?il=0 )

    Does this mean that 49k more Brits emigrated than returned home in the last year?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, the Germans asking the French to give up their UNSC seat to the EU. That could have been Germany asking the UK...

    Could they actually do that? And would it mean that the EU would only ever have one vote because no member states would be eligible for the non-permanent seats?
    Just to be provocative, which will last longest, UN or EU?
    You could add NATO to that comparison, or possibly OPEC?

  • Total net migration = 273k
    EU net migration = 74k
    nonEU net migration = 248k
    EU + nonEU = 322k
    (figures from https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-immigration/uk-sees-net-migration-of-273000-in-year-to-june-driven-by-non-eu-arrivals-idUKKCN1NY13V?il=0 )

    Does this mean that 49k more Brits emigrated than returned home in the last year?
    Soudns about right, it's always an outflow
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, the Germans asking the French to give up their UNSC seat to the EU. That could have been Germany asking the UK...

    Could they actually do that? And would it mean that the EU would only ever have one vote because no member states would be eligible for the non-permanent seats?
    The composition of the security council is hardwired into the UN so in practice it’s not possible without a completely new world order.
    That's what I thought. A very odd suggestion by the Germans.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Mr. Max, mildly surprised that's happened so soon.

    Perhaps a consequence of the EU army, and the future of a single EU defence policy to sit alongside the foreign high panjandrum?

    I care naught for the EU army, bar it risks pissing off the US if they don't mind their Ps & Qs with regard to C3I, but it's the call for QMV on foreign policy that's more worrying. The next accession treaty (early 20s? Can't recall the exact date) will be very interesting.
  • murali_s said:

    Brexit is more or less dead.

    The country will never accept the consequences of a "No deal". How Brexit dies is still up for grabs - Norway +, 2nd Referendum etc.

    Brexit does not die with Norway and it is becoming a likely end point. No deal was finally buried yesterday thankfully

    A referendum is a very complex issue with many unanswered questions including whether the EU would let us remain on the same terms, A50 extension cannot happen too much because of the EU elections in May, and how the wording is resolved
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited November 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Listening to Mark Carney begs the question;'Why are we allowing the tail to wag the dog'.

    This country has become a farce. The interesting parts which are ALL Remain should hive themselves off and leave the crap areas to organise themselves as they wish. We could start with London declaring UDI. A Monaco in the heart of England.

    Stoke Hartlepool Preston Sunderland Boston Jaywick Northern Ireland ,,,,, Leave them to their own choices

    ........and if you're going to miss them hoot your horn.......

    Monaco is the favoured hiding place for crooks, money launderers and financial scammers of all types. A place which if it appears anywhere in a deal is a bloody great red flag that something dodgy is going on. A place which has no use for integrity. And that is your preferred exemplar for London, is it?!?!

    I’d take any of the other places you mention in a heartbeat over Monaco. Preston has the beautiful Forest of Bowland nearby. Northern Ireland has glorious countrysideand a wonderful arts scene. The North East has great beaches and countryside etc etc.

    Monaco is full of vulgar materialists like Mr and Mrs Green.
    ...and the cutest zoo you're ever likely to see. And Paula Radcliffe

    (NB At the time of going to press still SIR Philip and LADY Green)
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, the Germans asking the French to give up their UNSC seat to the EU. That could have been Germany asking the UK...

    Could they actually do that? And would it mean that the EU would only ever have one vote because no member states would be eligible for the non-permanent seats?
    The composition of the security council is hardwired into the UN so in practice it’s not possible without a completely new world order.
    It's subject to veto by the existing permanent members, plus the usual 66% vote by other members. Russia would veto it as a matter of course, but I don't think it's 'hardwired' in the way you allude.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471


    Total net migration = 273k
    EU net migration = 74k
    nonEU net migration = 248k
    EU + nonEU = 322k
    (figures from https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-immigration/uk-sees-net-migration-of-273000-in-year-to-june-driven-by-non-eu-arrivals-idUKKCN1NY13V?il=0 )

    Does this mean that 49k more Brits emigrated than returned home in the last year?
    322,000 more people a year. More than the population of Nottingham.

    Since we're not building the infrastructure of Nottingham every year perhaps this course of action is not the wisest in terms of improving the quality of life of people who are already here.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Xenon said:


    Total net migration = 273k
    EU net migration = 74k
    nonEU net migration = 248k
    EU + nonEU = 322k
    (figures from https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-immigration/uk-sees-net-migration-of-273000-in-year-to-june-driven-by-non-eu-arrivals-idUKKCN1NY13V?il=0 )

    Does this mean that 49k more Brits emigrated than returned home in the last year?
    322,000 more people a year. More than the population of Nottingham.

    Since we're not building the infrastructure of Nottingham every year perhaps this course of action is not the wisest in terms of improving the quality of life of people who are already here.
    No worries, no deal Brexit will turn the country into a lifeless, barren wasteland. Should be ideal for the next Mad Max shoot.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963

    Nice article.

    Unlike getting stuck in litigation, however, there is a very simple way to extricate ourselves from the Brexit mess. It simply requires MPs to ratify the deal on the table. It really is as simple as that, but unfortunately it doesn't look as though it's going to happen.

    There do currently seem to be about 600 different versions of What We Should Do Next represented in the House of Commons. May's only hope of getting her deal through is if the penny finally drops that it really is Her Deal or No Deal. (A No Deal which is a self-fulfilling nightmare because she has made it so - by continually refused to make any meaningful preparation.)

    Chasing down fantasies of second referendums saving the day are just that - fantasies. It is just running down the clock to WTO Brexit. Which, given the lack of preparation, will be at best uncomfortable and damaging, even if not falling into the Governor's Britian eating roots and berries scenarios.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited November 2018
    T

    philiph said:

    Cyclefree said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    May's deal would be fine w/o the backstop. There are 5 days set aside for debate in the Commons, with scope for amendments. If the Commons does its job it can send her away with the backing of Parliament to climb out of the hole she has dug by confronting the EU with a deal-minus-backstop / no-deal choice.

    There is no deal minus the backstop. The backstop IS the deal.
    If there's no movement from the EU then it is no deal.
    But the commons doesn't want no deal, so why would they vote for a course of action which would inevitably lead there?
    ** Bangs head on table **

    Parliament has already voted for No Deal. That is what will inevitably happen on March 29th.

    Unless the current deal - the only one on offer - is accepted. As it looks as if it won’t be, then No Deal it is.

    If Parliament wants to remain in the EU then it will have to do something to bring that about.
    Why is it so hard for the basic fact to be understood.

    By 29th March we either agree a deal with EU or leave without a deal.

    There is nothing that Parliament can do unilaterally to alter that (subject to legal challenges).
    Well, that isn’t true. Parliament can instruct the executive to ask to extend or rescind Article 50.
    Which rescinding or extension may or may not even be possible. Even with the best will of the 27 (and when has that ever been on display to the UK?)
    The UK asking to Remain would be the very best example the EU could have. Especially if it were after another vote.

    Now some countries might wish to humiliate the UK even further. But I suspect most won’t and I expect that view to prevail.

    The rebate might well be given up since it is not in a treaty but a new budget round is due anyway soon and there could well be a boost to the UK economy if the present uncertainty were removed.

    I know there will be the usual cries about the euro and the EU army etc. But with Trump on one side (and I don’t see America becoming much more focused on Europe under a successor), Putin on the other and the Chinese, maybe a joint EU defence is a good thing?

    And if Britain were to join the euro imagine how powerful that would make its financial sector and how powerful that would make Britain within the EU?

    I am not a natural EU integrationist.

    But the world has changed a lot in the last two years and the trends we are seeing now are ones which mean that we need to stop thinking that we can go back to a world where the post WW2 order was still alive and kicking. We need new thinking.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745


    Brexit does not die with Norway and it is becoming a likely end point. No deal was finally buried yesterday thankfully

    A referendum is a very complex issue with many unanswered questions including whether the EU would let us remain on the same terms, A50 extension cannot happen too much because of the EU elections in May, and how the wording is resolved

    You said all this "No Deal is buried" guff before and now Carney has had to be wheeled out a second time to remind people of the Armageddon they will be facing if they don't accept the Blessed Theresa's Immaculate Deal.

    The trouble is the impact of Fear lessens with time and as we saw yesterday Carney's scenarios soon unravel when presented with some alternative hypotheses.

    What Carney has revealed is the sheer incompetence of a Government which has seemingly done nothing to prepare the country for the consequences of a No Deal and while most local authorities have been preparing it now appears the much-lauded private sector is dragging its feet (presumably waiting for some lead from Government).

    As a result of our own ill-preparedness and weakness we will have no choice but to acquiesce to may's terrible Deal and go from there but at least one can only hope the Conservatives will one day be held electorally accountable for the inaction of the past couple of years.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited November 2018
    This is embarrassing....

    Yesterday we sent you Stephen's blog piece which concluded that a rarely observed Condorcet Paradox was found in Theresa May's three Brexit outcomes.

    Unfortunately, an error found its way into the text which meant that, in fact, May's Deal was a Condorcet Winner. We are very sorry for the mistake, and Stephen has re-written his piece to reflect the true meaning of the analysis.

    To read Stephen's amended article, please visit the dedicated blogging page on the Deltapoll website, here.


    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/steve-fisher-condorcet

    So constructing a series of two-way contests from the preference orderings means that there is a majority for the Deal over No Deal and for the Deal over Remain. This means that May’s Agreement is what political scientists call the Condorcet winner.

    Will the Politicians take note.....?
  • 'Remainers can’t feel any more smug.'

    There are two ways of reading that sentence.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    edited November 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Listening to Mark Carney begs the question;'Why are we allowing the tail to wag the dog'.

    This country has become a farce. The interesting parts which are ALL Remain should hive themselves off and leave the crap areas to organise themselves as they wish. We could start with London declaring UDI. A Monaco in the heart of England.

    Stoke Hartlepool Preston Sunderland Boston Jaywick Northern Ireland ,,,,, Leave them to their own choices

    ........and if you're going to miss them hoot your horn.......

    Monaco is the favoured hiding place for crooks, money launderers and financial scammers of all types. A place which if it appears anywhere in a deal is a bloody great red flag that something dodgy is going on. A place which has no use for integrity. And that is your preferred exemplar for London, is it?!?!

    I’d take any of the other places you mention in a heartbeat over Monaco. Preston has the beautiful Forest of Bowland nearby. Northern Ireland has glorious countrysideand a wonderful arts scene. The North East has great beaches and countryside etc etc.

    Monaco is full of vulgar materialists like Mr and Mrs Green.
    My now wife and I had a very good time as students in Sunderland, albeit many years ago, and before I met her I went around for a while a very attractive girl from Hartlepool about whom I occasionally still wonder.........
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Listening to Mark Carney begs the question;'Why are we allowing the tail to wag the dog'.

    This country has become a farce. The interesting parts which are ALL Remain should hive themselves off and leave the crap areas to organise themselves as they wish. We could start with London declaring UDI. A Monaco in the heart of England.

    Stoke Hartlepool Preston Sunderland Boston Jaywick Northern Ireland ,,,,, Leave them to their own choices

    ........and if you're going to miss them hoot your horn.......

    Monaco is the favoured hiding place for crooks, money launderers and financial scammers of all types. A place which if it appears anywhere in a deal is a bloody great red flag that something dodgy is going on. A place which has no use for integrity. And that is your preferred exemplar for London, is it?!?!

    I’d take any of the other places you mention in a heartbeat over Monaco. Preston has the beautiful Forest of Bowland nearby. Northern Ireland has glorious countrysideand a wonderful arts scene. The North East has great beaches and countryside etc etc.

    Monaco is full of vulgar materialists like Mr and Mrs Green.
    ...and the cutest zoo you're ever likely to see. And Paula Radcliffe

    (NB At the time of going to press still SIR Philip and LADY Green)
    Titles like that do not make one a gentleman or lady. And nothing I have seen of their behaviour or spending habits suggest to me that they are anything other than really quite vulgar common people, of a type who have been far too much feted in our society for far too long.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Cyclefree said:

    I know there will be the usual cries about the euro and the EU army etc. But with Trump on one side (and I don’t see America becoming much more focused on Europe under a successor), Putin on the other and the Chinese, maybe a joint EU defence is a good thing?

    And if Britain were to join the euro imagine how powerful that would make its financial sector and how powerful that would make Britain within the EU?

    I am not a natural EU integrationist.

    But the world has changed a lot in the last two years and the trends we are seeing now are ones which mean that we need to stop thinking that we can go back to a world where the post WW2 order was still alive and kicking. We need new thinking.

    Hear, hear!
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    John_M said:

    Xenon said:


    Total net migration = 273k
    EU net migration = 74k
    nonEU net migration = 248k
    EU + nonEU = 322k
    (figures from https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-immigration/uk-sees-net-migration-of-273000-in-year-to-june-driven-by-non-eu-arrivals-idUKKCN1NY13V?il=0 )

    Does this mean that 49k more Brits emigrated than returned home in the last year?
    322,000 more people a year. More than the population of Nottingham.

    Since we're not building the infrastructure of Nottingham every year perhaps this course of action is not the wisest in terms of improving the quality of life of people who are already here.
    No worries, no deal Brexit will turn the country into a lifeless, barren wasteland. Should be ideal for the next Mad Max shoot.
    You forgot to mention the snakes.

    The racist snakes.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    M

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Listening to Mark Carney begs the question;'Why are we allowing the tail to wag the dog'.

    This country has become a farce. The interesting parts which are ALL Remain should hive themselves off and leave the crap areas to organise themselves as they wish. We could start with London declaring UDI. A Monaco in the heart of England.

    Stoke Hartlepool Preston Sunderland Boston Jaywick Northern Ireland ,,,,, Leave them to their own choices

    ........and if you're going to miss them hoot your horn.......

    Monaco is the favoured hiding place for crooks, money launderers and financial scammers of all types. A place which if it appears anywhere in a deal is a bloody great red flag that something dodgy is going on. A place which has no use for integrity. And that is your preferred exemplar for London, is it?!?!

    I’d take any of the other places you mention in a heartbeat over Monaco. Preston has the beautiful Forest of Bowland nearby. Northern Ireland has glorious countrysideand a wonderful arts scene. The North East has great beaches and countryside etc etc.

    Monaco is full of vulgar materialists like Mr and Mrs Green.
    My now wife and I had a very good time as students in Sunderland, albeit many years ago, and before I met her I went around for a while a very attractive girl from Hartlepool about whom I occasionally still wonder.........
    My brother-in-law, a retired deputy-headmaster, went to university in Sunderland and loved it.
  • Mr. M, very interesting point on QMV.

    I do wonder if Foreign/Defence matters would be handled on that basis in the long term or whether there'd be a drive for a more cohesive government of the EU.
  • Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
  • All Brexits leave us economically worse off.
    All Brexits surrender leverage to other powers on large elements of our economy or even territory (NI).
    No Brexit makes us more democratic.
    No Brexit gives us more money for the NHS.
    No Brexit brings the fishing industry back.
    No Brexit increases our hard or soft power.
    No Brexit reduces our overreliance on consumption.
    No Brexit rebalances growth toward our badly lagging provinces.
    No Brexit tackles the issues of the 21st century: climate change; a multi-polar world; the rise of AI and the threat to jobs; growing wealth inequality; the threat of mass migration from Africa and the Middle East.

    May’s deal is purely an exercise in damage limitation.

    We all know this.
    The public knows this.
    That’s why there’s no strong support for it.

    But no politician seems to have the spine, the balls, the heart, and the credibility to articulate these self-evident truths.

    No posting by Gardenwalker has ever born more than a passing resemblance to reality.

    Almost every one of those points is opinion rather than fact and based solely on your own bias.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092


    Total net migration = 273k
    EU net migration = 74k
    nonEU net migration = 248k
    EU + nonEU = 322k
    (figures from https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-immigration/uk-sees-net-migration-of-273000-in-year-to-june-driven-by-non-eu-arrivals-idUKKCN1NY13V?il=0 )

    Does this mean that 49k more Brits emigrated than returned home in the last year?
    Those figures are net migration by citizenship, and the missing category (British citizenship) accounts for the 49k you have identified.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    European parliament to move to the right slightly shortly :

    LEGA-ENF: 34% (+28)
    M5S-EFDD: 25% (+4)
    PD-S&D: 18% (-23)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited November 2018
    Cyclefree said:




    I know there will be the usual cries about the euro and the EU army etc. But with Trump on one side (and I don’t see America becoming much more focused on Europe under a successor), Putin on the other and the Chinese, maybe a joint EU defence is a good thing?

    Which of the two operational German tanks is your favourite ?
  • philiph said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, the Germans asking the French to give up their UNSC seat to the EU. That could have been Germany asking the UK...

    Could they actually do that? And would it mean that the EU would only ever have one vote because no member states would be eligible for the non-permanent seats?
    Just to be provocative, which will last longest, UN or EU?
    You could add NATO to that comparison, or possibly OPEC?
    Or the UK. Perhaps Shadsy could price it up.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pulpstar said:

    European parliament to move to the right slightly shortly :

    LEGA-ENF: 34% (+28)
    M5S-EFDD: 25% (+4)
    PD-S&D: 18% (-23)

    It's going to lose a lot of UKIPpers though, so the overall balance of batshittery may not change much.
  • stodge said:


    Brexit does not die with Norway and it is becoming a likely end point. No deal was finally buried yesterday thankfully

    A referendum is a very complex issue with many unanswered questions including whether the EU would let us remain on the same terms, A50 extension cannot happen too much because of the EU elections in May, and how the wording is resolved

    You said all this "No Deal is buried" guff before and now Carney has had to be wheeled out a second time to remind people of the Armageddon they will be facing if they don't accept the Blessed Theresa's Immaculate Deal.

    The trouble is the impact of Fear lessens with time and as we saw yesterday Carney's scenarios soon unravel when presented with some alternative hypotheses.

    What Carney has revealed is the sheer incompetence of a Government which has seemingly done nothing to prepare the country for the consequences of a No Deal and while most local authorities have been preparing it now appears the much-lauded private sector is dragging its feet (presumably waiting for some lead from Government).

    As a result of our own ill-preparedness and weakness we will have no choice but to acquiesce to may's terrible Deal and go from there but at least one can only hope the Conservatives will one day be held electorally accountable for the inaction of the past couple of years.
    It is not 'guff' and it will not happen
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Italy, Noto poll:
    Approval ratings (PM+party leaders)
    Salvini (LEGA-ENF): 48%
    Conte (*-*): 43%
    Di Maio (M5S-EFDD): 37%

    Quite a slip for Di Maio, seems Salvini is the only one close to 50% now.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    And then what Bigjohn?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    European parliament to move to the right slightly shortly :

    LEGA-ENF: 34% (+28)
    M5S-EFDD: 25% (+4)
    PD-S&D: 18% (-23)

    It's going to lose a lot of UKIPpers though, so the overall balance of batshittery may not change much.
    Or will it :D.
  • Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    I wouldn't bet on it
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/20/german-armed-forces-not-equipped-do-job-rules-watchdog/

    None of the German navy’s six submarines were operational at the end of last year, and only nine of a planned 15 frigates are in service.

    None of the Luftwaffe’s 14 A400M transport aircraft were airworthy on several occasions last year, and replacement aircraft had to be chartered to bring serving troops home

    The German tank battalion that is due to take command of the taskforce currently only has nine operational tanks out of a total of 48
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    philiph said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, the Germans asking the French to give up their UNSC seat to the EU. That could have been Germany asking the UK...

    Could they actually do that? And would it mean that the EU would only ever have one vote because no member states would be eligible for the non-permanent seats?
    Just to be provocative, which will last longest, UN or EU?
    You could add NATO to that comparison, or possibly OPEC?
    Or the UK. Perhaps Shadsy could price it up.
    Sadly, out of UN, EU, NATO, OPEC, and UK, I suspect the UK will be the first to go*.

    (*Assuming we accept that if any of: NI, Scotland, Wales or England leave, then the UK is no more.)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    And then what Bigjohn?
    And then we negotiate a better deal or we have an in out Referendum or a GE

    We cannot carry on with this completely useless woman in charge.

    She has spent 30 months to get to this load of crap.

    Seriously
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    And then what Bigjohn?
    Depends on her replacement. If it's Boris, God help us all.
  • That's why - and I know it's hard to separate from my usual Labour loyalism - McDonnell's 3-step process makes sense... Then we need a referendum that offers the only two realistic oiptions - proposing to remain and deciding to leave with a minimal No Deal.

    Rights and wrongs aside, is the view that the (presumably Commons-defeated) Deal wouldn't be a realistic option so you'd have to pit No Deal against Remain McDonnell's position or yours or both?
    Yes, although it would be worth a visit by May to Brussels to get their agreement that (a) Remain means Remain on current terms and (b) No Deal means no major deal but basic trade,aviation etc. would keep running on reasonable terms. I think they'd agree with both, and May could reasonably get a bit of credit for that, so nobody would necessarily feel totally screwed by the outcome.
    I don't think the EU would agree to that version of 'No Deal'. I think they would say what they've always said - the Withdrawal Agreement is just that, you have to sign it, but the subsequent long-term relationship is up for discussion. I don't think that would really get us any further, since the objections to May's deal, inasmuch as they are coherent at all, are principally to the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Also, whilst I hesitate to contradict you on the likely Labour Party position, I don't think you are right that the party would support a Remain/No Deal referendum (Placebo vs Poison in your rather good analogy). How could they, given that they are making a big push on trying to rule out No Deal? I think the only version of a referendum that could get through parliament is Remain vs May's Deal, which would have the very good feature that both options would be clear. No prizes for guessing which I think would win in that scenario.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963

    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    I wouldn't bet on it
    I think the one constant across the House is that NOBODY wants her in charge of the next stage of negotiating with the EU, whether that is the Trade deal or trying to rejig the current May/Robbins fiasco.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548

    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    And then what Bigjohn?
    And then we negotiate a better deal or we have an in out Referendum or a GE

    We cannot carry on with this completely useless woman in charge.

    She has spent 30 months to get to this load of crap.

    Seriously
    But again, that's not a plan. It's scarcely even coherent thought.

    I want this or this or this or this ... I know what I want, but I don't know how to get there, or what damage it'll do. I just want it. Or I'll scream and scream and scream.

    It's exactly what's got us into this mess.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Non-EU net migration at its highest level since 2004.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46384417
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    BBC says Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt raded over money-laundering. 'Germany's public prosecutor alleged that two staff members have helped clients launder money from criminal activities.'

    Hmm. Tip of the iceberg?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724

    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    I wouldn't bet on it
    People here have!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    I wouldn't bet on it
    I think the one constant across the House is that NOBODY wants her in charge of the next stage of negotiating with the EU, whether that is the Trade deal or trying to rejig the current May/Robbins fiasco.
    Do you think May realises this? She appears to have surrounded people who are not telling her she's heading for a galactic-scale shellacking, so they are presumably also not telling her she will be expected to leave when she does.

    If (when?) May tries to pull a "nothing has changed" after the meaningful vote defeat, there's gonna be blood on the carpets, curtains, wallpaper, bedsheets and ceiling.
  • Going back to the Treasury forecasts yesterday, the problem with them is they are meaningless.

    For the Chequers and modified Chequers scenarios they are literally rounding errors on the normal quarterly growth numbers

    On the basic calculation without talking into account compounding

    2.5% in 15 years time is 0.04% less growth per quarter
    3.9% in 15 years time is 0.06% less growth per quarter.

    These numbers are so small the media would normally never even report them to that degree of accuracy. And given that to get to the 15 year value they have had to compound the quarterly figures the actual numbers would be even smaller. It is the equivalent of a snowy week in January.

    Of course with the No Deal scenario the number are a bit bigger but even the headline of 9.3% smaller in 15 years time the actual quarterly numbers are very small. I am not saying I want No Deal, just that these numbers from the Treasury are a large dollop of smoke and mirrors.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Since there have been noises off about the potential need for a government of national unity, what sort of candidates do we have floating around for who might make a good caretaker PM?

    Mark Carney
    William Hague
    Ken Clarke
    Gary Lineker
    Joanne Rowling
    Mr Blobby
    James O'Brien
    Michel Barnier
  • philiph said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lol, the Germans asking the French to give up their UNSC seat to the EU. That could have been Germany asking the UK...

    Could they actually do that? And would it mean that the EU would only ever have one vote because no member states would be eligible for the non-permanent seats?
    Just to be provocative, which will last longest, UN or EU?
    You could add NATO to that comparison, or possibly OPEC?
    Or the UK. Perhaps Shadsy could price it up.
    Sadly, out of UN, EU, NATO, OPEC, and UK, I suspect the UK will be the first to go*.

    (*Assuming we accept that if any of: NI, Scotland, Wales or England leave, then the UK is no more.)
    The only two of those that would cause me sadness are the UN and NATO.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    AndyJS said:

    Non-EU net migration at its highest level since 2004.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46384417

    I wish they would break down the figures -

    say 50,000 Doctors; 90,000 nurses; 40,000 students; 30,000 housewives; 50,000 students; 5,000 lathe operators. People could then see exactly who is coming into the country and might be more accepting of the figures.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The thing is, the narrative of the great Tory backbench revolt has reached critical mass by this point. It becomes easier and safer for waverers to join in the kicking rather than go out on a limb supporting a doomed deal and a doomed PM.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    James Forsythe thinks May could go for (and win) a 3-question 2nd referendum:

    I know that the idea of May proposing a second referendum seems outlandish—and I’m not suggesting that Number 10 are currently keen on the idea. But given that she can’t pivot to Norway having defined the referendum as being about free movement and that she doesn’t want either no deal or Remain, then what other options does she have? As Sherlock Holmes said, once you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/why-theresa-may-might-end-up-embracing-a-second-referendum/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Since there have been noises off about the potential need for a government of national unity, what sort of candidates do we have floating around for who might make a good caretaker PM?

    Mark Carney
    William Hague
    Ken Clarke
    Gary Lineker
    Joanne Rowling
    Mr Blobby
    James O'Brien
    Michel Barnier

    I'd go for Carney out of those. I reckon he could run a competent, albeit technocratic government.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,884

    Since there have been noises off about the potential need for a government of national unity, what sort of candidates do we have floating around for who might make a good caretaker PM?

    Mark Carney
    William Hague
    Ken Clarke
    Gary Lineker
    Joanne Rowling
    Mr Blobby
    James O'Brien
    Michel Barnier

    Kilroy-Silk. If he's still alive.
    Neil Hamilton.
    Baron Archer of Weston super Mare.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289
    edited November 2018

    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    And then what Bigjohn?
    And then we negotiate a better deal or we have an in out Referendum or a GE

    We cannot carry on with this completely useless woman in charge.

    She has spent 30 months to get to this load of crap.

    Seriously
    As you say it's taken 30 months to get this WA negotiated.

    The idea that someone else (be they BoJo, Gove, Corbyn, McDonnell or Uncle Tom Cobley) could step in and magically negotiate a fresh deal with a pissed-off and intransigent EU, and that that new deal would magically command the support of the HoC is, frankly, beyond laughable.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    Since there have been noises off about the potential need for a government of national unity, what sort of candidates do we have floating around for who might make a good caretaker PM?

    Mark Carney
    William Hague
    Ken Clarke
    Gary Lineker
    Joanne Rowling
    Mr Blobby
    James O'Brien
    Michel Barnier


    After all the talk of "deal and no deal" how about Noel Edmonds (when he's finished in the jungle) ?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    geoffw said:

    James Forsythe thinks May could go for (and win) a 3-question 2nd referendum:

    I know that the idea of May proposing a second referendum seems outlandish—and I’m not suggesting that Number 10 are currently keen on the idea. But given that she can’t pivot to Norway having defined the referendum as being about free movement and that she doesn’t want either no deal or Remain, then what other options does she have? As Sherlock Holmes said, once you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/why-theresa-may-might-end-up-embracing-a-second-referendum/

    The electoral commission will take a very dim view of a referendum where the question is framed by the Prime Minister to get a desired outcome.

    There are two questions at play here:

    1) Do you wish to continue the process of leaving the EU, or halt it?

    2) If we continue, on what basis do we want to leave? PM's deal/(Norway+)/No Deal
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    If wishes were fishes we'd all cast nets.

    Really, for Leavers or Remainers, there's no sane alternative to what May has come up with. And absolutely no MP who voted to trigger A50 has any right to complain about the outcome.
  • Carney may be headed for the Black Sea
  • Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    And then what Bigjohn?
    And then we negotiate a better deal or we have an in out Referendum or a GE

    We cannot carry on with this completely useless woman in charge.

    She has spent 30 months to get to this load of crap.

    Seriously
    As you say it's taken 30 months to get this WA negotiated.

    The idea that someone else (be they BoJo, Gove, Corbyn, McDonnell or Uncle Tom Cobley) could step in and magically negotiate a fresh deal with a pissed-off and intransigent EU, and that that new deal would magically command the support of the HoC is, frankly, beyond laughable.
    I don't necessarily disagree with you but the point needs to be made that it is not a wholesale renegotiation that would be needed. The sticking point is the backstop which is a purely political matter with a lot fewer players needing to be placated.

    I still don't think (from a Leave supporting point of view) it is worth the risk of rejecting the Deal with the possibility of Remain winning through, but if it does come to the point of going back top the EU and saying we want changes it is not really accurate to use the comparison of the previous negotiation which covered the whole range of issues rather than one specific, politically motivated, sticking point.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited November 2018
    geoffw said:

    James Forsythe thinks May could go for (and win) a 3-question 2nd referendum:

    I know that the idea of May proposing a second referendum seems outlandish—and I’m not suggesting that Number 10 are currently keen on the idea. But given that she can’t pivot to Norway having defined the referendum as being about free movement and that she doesn’t want either no deal or Remain, then what other options does she have? As Sherlock Holmes said, once you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/why-theresa-may-might-end-up-embracing-a-second-referendum/

    I think Theresa's going to try a three-way (her nationwide tour has the feel of a referendum campaign already) but I've got a feeling she'll run out of time to get it through Parliament, get the question sorted out with the electoral commission, deal with all he various legal challenges that will be coming the governments way, etc...

    Once we get to January basically times up!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963
    Dura_Ace said:

    Since there have been noises off about the potential need for a government of national unity, what sort of candidates do we have floating around for who might make a good caretaker PM?

    Mark Carney
    William Hague
    Ken Clarke
    Gary Lineker
    Joanne Rowling
    Mr Blobby
    James O'Brien
    Michel Barnier

    Kilroy-Silk. If he's still alive.
    Neil Hamilton.
    Baron Archer of Weston super Mare.
    Someone who the nation can unite around. It needs to be a national treasure.

    Alan Titchmarsh. Julie Walters. That bloke off the Antiques Roadshow who does the Worcester porcelain.

    Or the cartoonist Matt.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    I wouldn't bet on it
    I think the one constant across the House is that NOBODY wants her in charge of the next stage of negotiating with the EU, whether that is the Trade deal or trying to rejig the current May/Robbins fiasco.

    There's something in that. I suspect if she does somehow manage to get the WA through, she might resign at that point (or say on March 29th) to allow a fresh face to lead the next stage.

    How about this: she agrees with Labour that she will call a GE* for April in return for which they will abstain on the MV, allowing the WA to go through. As the same time she tells her own party she will step down and allow an orderly leadership election in January so a fresh leader is in place for the proposed GE.

    (*I know FTPA is an issue but ways could be found etc.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited November 2018

    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    And then what Bigjohn?
    And then we negotiate a better deal or we have an in out Referendum or a GE

    We cannot carry on with this completely useless woman in charge.

    She has spent 30 months to get to this load of crap.

    Seriously
    As you say it's taken 30 months to get this WA negotiated.

    The idea that someone else (be they BoJo, Gove, Corbyn, McDonnell or Uncle Tom Cobley) could step in and magically negotiate a fresh deal with a pissed-off and intransigent EU, and that that new deal would magically command the support of the HoC is, frankly, beyond laughable.
    I think Gove might have negotiated an economically better deal, he'd have probably traded free movement for more control over the fisheries.
    Corbyn's would obviously be different.
    Boris' deal would have been the same as May's (he's lazy and so It would have been all Olly Robbins) except the backstop would be an NI only customs arrangement. Don't forget how Bob Crow used to walk all over him when it came to TFL deal time
  • Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    I wouldn't bet on it
    I think the one constant across the House is that NOBODY wants her in charge of the next stage of negotiating with the EU, whether that is the Trade deal or trying to rejig the current May/Robbins fiasco.
    You assume certain actions but the next move if the deal falls is for TM to decide. She could resign, face a vnoc from labour and/or the conservative mps, or may receive cabinet endorsement for her next move.

    Interesting in the select committee today Yvette Cooper said to TM that they had known each other for 20 years and there is no way she would allow a no deal. Obviously TM continued to defend her deal but I expect a meeting to be called by TM after the vote with all party leaders to seek a way through the impasse. We know the SNP want Norway as would a large number of labour mps, indeed Stephen Kinnoch was promoting it on the Welsh news.

    It is safer than a referendum that could be a disaster of epic portions making the last one look like a walk in the park
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    Carney may be headed for the Black Sea

    He's going to walk the plank? :D
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Sean_F said:

    If wishes were fishes we'd all cast nets.

    Really, for Leavers or Remainers, there's no sane alternative to what May has come up with. And absolutely no MP who voted to trigger A50 has any right to complain about the outcome.

    Trying to stop MPs complaining about the consequence of their actions is about as fruitless as commanding back the tides, Mr F.

    We're locked into one almighty hand of no-limit political hold'em at the moment. Nobody is showing the slightest inclination to fold, because apparently everyone believes they're on course for a strait flush (or like the ERG are simply too stupid and stubborn to realise they've already lost and to cash out).

    11th December is when the hand gets called.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289
    edited November 2018
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    Since there have been noises off about the potential need for a government of national unity, what sort of candidates do we have floating around for who might make a good caretaker PM?

    Mark Carney
    William Hague
    Ken Clarke
    Gary Lineker
    Joanne Rowling
    Mr Blobby
    James O'Brien
    Michel Barnier

    David Icke? Piers Corbyn? :D
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Anorak said:
    Men are only interested in one thing, it's disgusting.

    (That thing being access to our territorial fishing waters)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    geoffw said:

    James Forsythe thinks May could go for (and win) a 3-question 2nd referendum:

    I know that the idea of May proposing a second referendum seems outlandish—and I’m not suggesting that Number 10 are currently keen on the idea. But given that she can’t pivot to Norway having defined the referendum as being about free movement and that she doesn’t want either no deal or Remain, then what other options does she have? As Sherlock Holmes said, once you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/why-theresa-may-might-end-up-embracing-a-second-referendum/

    If Mrs May's solution is voted down in parliament it would be a novel idea to go over the heads of MPs and put it to the country through a referendum
  • NotchNotch Posts: 145
    When support grows for a controversial change, usually it gets expressed in an increased vote for a party that promises it. That is exactly what didn't happen in Britain. We had the remarkable position that the party that came FIRST in an EU election never managed to get more than two MPs - and in general elections they only ever won a single seat, on one occasion only.

    Has such a disparity ever occurred in any other EU member state?

    The UKIP voteshare graphs show that FPTP is not the only reason.

    The other reason is that people have learnt not to be open about their xenophobia, because xenophobia is widely viewed as dirty. That is strange, since dirtiness and smelliness are generally speaking two of the characteristics that xenophobes ascribe to those who belong to the groups they dislike, believing that they themselves are as clean as whistles and smell as fresh as daisies, but that is how it is in their minds. That's why so many Leave voters had such big smiles on their faces when Leave won the referendum, including many who didn't know the difference between the European Commission and the European Parliament and who couldn't REALLY care less whether cucumbers were straight or curved, given that they always slice them into thin discs anyway. Nor do most of them know qualified majority voting from their own bumcracks. What they care about most is immigration, especially by groups that behind closed doors they call them by names that are much more emotive than most people will ever hear a politician refer to them. The referendum result was the return of the repressed.

    For all the wonk chat, the essential choice in the coming referendum will again be between the Germanic "Leave" and the Romance "Remain". In Trumpian terms, "reality" versus "snowflakes". Leave will probably at least double their 2016 majority of 3.78%.

    Stories about dinghies to Dover and bullying in Huddersfield are very powerful.


  • Roger said:

    geoffw said:

    James Forsythe thinks May could go for (and win) a 3-question 2nd referendum:

    I know that the idea of May proposing a second referendum seems outlandish—and I’m not suggesting that Number 10 are currently keen on the idea. But given that she can’t pivot to Norway having defined the referendum as being about free movement and that she doesn’t want either no deal or Remain, then what other options does she have? As Sherlock Holmes said, once you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/why-theresa-may-might-end-up-embracing-a-second-referendum/

    If Mrs May's solution is voted down in parliament it would be a novel idea to go over the heads of MPs and put it to the country through a referendum
    If it was phrased as 'who runs this country' 650 MPs, or 65m people (yes i know the electorate is less than that), then that's a powerful arguement.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited November 2018
    Roger said:

    geoffw said:

    James Forsythe thinks May could go for (and win) a 3-question 2nd referendum:

    I know that the idea of May proposing a second referendum seems outlandish—and I’m not suggesting that Number 10 are currently keen on the idea. But given that she can’t pivot to Norway having defined the referendum as being about free movement and that she doesn’t want either no deal or Remain, then what other options does she have? As Sherlock Holmes said, once you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/why-theresa-may-might-end-up-embracing-a-second-referendum/

    If Mrs May's solution is voted down in parliament it would be a novel idea to go over the heads of MPs and put it to the country through a referendum
    Mrs May is not a dictator (yet) so she has to get Parliamentary approval to have a three-way.

    Then she has to get the electoral commission to come up with the question. At the point they come up with the question you can expect various legal challenges by those unhappy with the question.

    Then there has to be a campaign lasting several weeks.

    Realistically if we're not in a referendum campaign in January then time will have run out.

    I can't see it myself...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,096

    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    I wouldn't bet on it
    People here have!
    When the vote comes in much closer than anyone is expecting, her fortunes will turn around.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    Pulpstar said:

    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    And then what Bigjohn?
    And then we negotiate a better deal or we have an in out Referendum or a GE

    We cannot carry on with this completely useless woman in charge.

    She has spent 30 months to get to this load of crap.

    Seriously
    As you say it's taken 30 months to get this WA negotiated.

    The idea that someone else (be they BoJo, Gove, Corbyn, McDonnell or Uncle Tom Cobley) could step in and magically negotiate a fresh deal with a pissed-off and intransigent EU, and that that new deal would magically command the support of the HoC is, frankly, beyond laughable.
    I think Gove might have negotiated an economically better deal, he'd have probably traded free movement for more control over the fisheries.
    Corbyn's would obviously be different.
    Boris' deal would have been the same as May's (he's lazy and so It would have been all Olly Robbins) except the backstop would be an NI only customs arrangement. Don't forget how Bob Crow used to walk all over him when it came to TFL deal time
    And, David Davis wouldn't understand what he'd negotiated, but he'd resign anyway.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Carney may be headed for the Black Sea

    He's going to walk the plank? :D
    Sorry, THE Carney!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzNWjqtQDXM

    "Poroshenko urges Nato to send ships"
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46381166
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    Just listening to TMay facing the chairs of the select committees. Tough gig - can't say I envy her.

    It is amazing how she maintains her polite and mannered response to so many who clearly want to take down the deal for a multiple of conflicting reasons. She loses me in detail though, just amazing.

    And some think Corbyn could handle both this cross examination and detail, really they do
    Its really not difficult giving the same answer 100 times no matter what the question.

    She is hopeless.

    Thankfully she will be gone soon
    And then what Bigjohn?
    And then we negotiate a better deal or we have an in out Referendum or a GE

    We cannot carry on with this completely useless woman in charge.

    She has spent 30 months to get to this load of crap.

    Seriously
    As you say it's taken 30 months to get this WA negotiated.

    The idea that someone else (be they BoJo, Gove, Corbyn, McDonnell or Uncle Tom Cobley) could step in and magically negotiate a fresh deal with a pissed-off and intransigent EU, and that that new deal would magically command the support of the HoC is, frankly, beyond laughable.
    You are ruling out a better deal OK I don't

    If not we either have a No Deal/ Remain Referendum or a GE

    TM has spent 30 months pleasing nobody.

    Sooner she goes the better.

    We need to get on.

    She has wasted 85% of the time available to get a terrible deal.

    Time for robotic pontification is over.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Roger said:

    geoffw said:

    James Forsythe thinks May could go for (and win) a 3-question 2nd referendum:

    I know that the idea of May proposing a second referendum seems outlandish—and I’m not suggesting that Number 10 are currently keen on the idea. But given that she can’t pivot to Norway having defined the referendum as being about free movement and that she doesn’t want either no deal or Remain, then what other options does she have? As Sherlock Holmes said, once you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/why-theresa-may-might-end-up-embracing-a-second-referendum/

    If Mrs May's solution is voted down in parliament it would be a novel idea to go over the heads of MPs and put it to the country through a referendum
    It'd be displacement activity. What would be the point of asking the people to back a deal that Parliament had rejected? It would look foolish and absurd, and raise lots of very awkward constitutional questions. And the electoral commission would have none of it.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    geoffw said:

    James Forsythe thinks May could go for (and win) a 3-question 2nd referendum:

    I know that the idea of May proposing a second referendum seems outlandish—and I’m not suggesting that Number 10 are currently keen on the idea. But given that she can’t pivot to Norway having defined the referendum as being about free movement and that she doesn’t want either no deal or Remain, then what other options does she have? As Sherlock Holmes said, once you have eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/why-theresa-may-might-end-up-embracing-a-second-referendum/

    If Mrs May's solution is voted down in parliament it would be a novel idea to go over the heads of MPs and put it to the country through a referendum
    Mrs May is not a dictator (yet) so she has to get Parliamentary approval to have a three-way.
    I had no idea Mrs May was that kind of girl.
This discussion has been closed.