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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of the critical Mississippi senate election Trump’s approval ratings plummet

Tomorrow sees the final chapter in this year’s midterms with the runoff for the Senatorial place in Mississippi. Today the president is attending two mass rallies in different parts of the state in the hope of shoring up his core vote ahead of the election.

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Jonathan

One Mississippi or two Mississippi?

ExiledInScotland

Jonathan said:

One Mississippi or two Mississippi?

That is a burning question

ydoethur

Mississippi mud pie for Trump?

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1067155634955653130

It's the main reason and always has been.

edmundintokyo

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1067155634955653130

It's the main reason and always has been.

I wonder if the voters will start to murmur murderously though, I think a lot of them are just assuming that somebody will work something out.

kle4

edmundintokyo said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1067155634955653130

It's the main reason and always has been.

I wonder if the voters will start to murmur murderously though, I think a lots of the voters are just assuming that somebody will work something out.

Yes, murderously is perhaps the wrong word - but I think as things do not just work out the public agitation will only increase, MPs know that and that's one reason why so many have already started down a path that leads increasingly to some kind of further democratic cover for MPs (with a sizable chunk from those who assume the public would back what they want for good measure)

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

John_M

edmundintokyo said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1067155634955653130

It's the main reason and always has been.

I wonder if the voters will start to murmur murderously though, I think a lot of them are just assuming that somebody will work something out.

We had a gathering of our extended family this weekend (most of my lot now live in the North Yorks National Park, so provincial working/lower middle class). I think 'just get on with it and stop making so much noise' was the consensus from my resolutely politically indifferent clan, remainers and leavers alike. Murderousness was singularly absent, though I think *expecting* rather than *assuming* is le mot juste.

HYUFD

The GOP should still win in Mississippi even with Trump's approval rating that low, indeed the latest Mississippi poll has GOP candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith on 51% to 46% for Democrat Mike Espy, though it may be closer than usual in the state

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Mississippi,_2018

GIN1138

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

This deal is going nowhere. The Cabinet have got to pull the plug on Mrs May before it gets to 11th December.

Sunil_Prasannan

edmundintokyo said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1067155634955653130

It's the main reason and always has been.

I wonder if the voters will start to murmur murderously though, I think a lot of them are just assuming that somebody will work something out.

I thought for a second it was SeanT rather than SeanJones!

Big_G_NorthWales

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

This deal is going nowhere. The Cabinet have got to pull the plug on Mrs May before it gets to 11th December.

This deal has to go to the HOC. Everything else flows from that

GIN1138

Sunil_Prasannan said:

edmundintokyo said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1067155634955653130

It's the main reason and always has been.

I wonder if the voters will start to murmur murderously though, I think a lot of them are just assuming that somebody will work something out.

I thought for a second it was SeanT rather than SeanJones!

I think Sean T has other things on his mind on Twitter today...

rpjs

HYUFD said:

The GOP should still win in Mississippi even with Trump's approval rating that low, indeed the latest Mississippi poll has GOP candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith on 51% to 46% for Democrat Mike Espy, though it may be closer than usual in the state

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Mississippi,_2018

Agreed. There isn't going to be a shock Dem win in MS tomorrow.

FrancisUrquhart

Barely literate man fails to read report....He told reporters on Monday that he had "read some of" Friday's report.

No not corbyn, trump...different cheeks of the same arse.

kle4

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

This deal is going nowhere. The Cabinet have got to pull the plug on Mrs May before it gets to 11th December.

Why? Seriously, why should the Commons not vote on this deal? It is clearly going to fall, and then something else can be tried, but we will never know for certain who would be for and against when it got down to a vote. We the public deserve that, it would be courteous to the EU (who we are likely to beg for an extension or renegotiation), and it puts every MP on record, which will be useful for all parties and factions to see where everyone stands. How many might claim they would/would not have voted for it, if only they had been given the chance, particularly those keeping quiet?

May's time is up, and the deal is dead, so why is there any great need to not hold the vote? A new deal or option is not going to emerge before the vote, so holding it does not delay matters any.

Big_G_NorthWales

FT - US backs Kiev in naval clash

And the EU army is on stand by !!!!!!

MikeSmithson

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

This deal is going nowhere. The Cabinet have got to pull the plug on Mrs May before it gets to 11th December.

The Cabinet cannot pull the plug TMay under Tory party rules. In any case she has delivered what most voters were expecting from Brexit. She had performed heroically against the elderly, white almost totally male nutters.

This will go down as her finest hour

Big_G_NorthWales

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

This deal is going nowhere. The Cabinet have got to pull the plug on Mrs May before it gets to 11th December.

Why? Seriously, why should the Commons not vote on this deal? It is clearly going to fall, and then something else can be tried, but we will never know for certain who would be for and against when it got down to a cote. We the public deserve that, it would be courteous to the EU (who we are likely to beg for an extension or renegotiation), and it puts every MP on record.

I do not understand why anyone even thinks it should be stopped from the HOC.

It is an essential part of the pathway through this mess

John_M

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FT - US backs Kiev in naval clash

And the EU army is on stand by !!!!!!

What, both of them?

GIN1138

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

MikeSmithson

HYUFD said:

The GOP should still win in Mississippi even with Trump's approval rating that low, indeed the latest Mississippi poll has GOP candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith on 51% to 46% for Democrat Mike Espy, though it may be closer than usual in the state

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Mississippi,_2018

Agreed. Hard to see any other outcome though a big reduction of the GOP vote in such a Red stronghold won't look good

FrancisUrquhart

GIN1138 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

edmundintokyo said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1067155634955653130

It's the main reason and always has been.

I wonder if the voters will start to murmur murderously though, I think a lot of them are just assuming that somebody will work something out.

I thought for a second it was SeanT rather than SeanJones!

I think Sean T has other things on his mind on Twitter today...

“Theresa May is like some pathetic new liberal vicar in a rural village, accidentally summoning ancient demons by having a Be Nice To Rats car boot sale on top of a plague pit.”

You can see how he does this writing gig for a living!

Philip_Thompson

MikeSmithson said:

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

This deal is going nowhere. The Cabinet have got to pull the plug on Mrs May before it gets to 11th December.

The Cabinet cannot pull the plug TMay under Tory party rules. In any case she has delivered what most voters were expecting from Brexit. She had performed heroically against the elderly, white almost totally male nutters.

This will go down as her finest hour

Most voters were expecting a portion of our country to be disenfranchised and condemned to some undemocratic vassal state purgatory where they will be forever obliged to follow EU rules without getting a voice in elections over them?

ydoethur

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

Well, to continue the Second World War analogy, Chamberlain was defenestrated with a majority of 81 on a confidence vote. So a crushing defeat would be a victory.

Foxy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FT - US backs Kiev in naval clash

And the EU army is on stand by !!!!!!

No way would Britain get involved in a Crimean War...

kle4

Philip_Thompson said:

MikeSmithson said:

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

This deal is going nowhere. The Cabinet have got to pull the plug on Mrs May before it gets to 11th December.

The Cabinet cannot pull the plug TMay under Tory party rules. In any case she has delivered what most voters were expecting from Brexit. She had performed heroically against the elderly, white almost totally male nutters.

This will go down as her finest hour

Most voters were expecting a portion of our country to be disenfranchised and condemned to some undemocratic vassal state purgatory where they will be forever obliged to follow EU rules without getting a voice in elections over them?

You think it would be forever? You don't have much faith in our MPs, clearly, in which case I'm surprised you think they will do such a bang up job getting something else.

Alistair

rpjs said:

HYUFD said:

The GOP should still win in Mississippi even with Trump's approval rating that low, indeed the latest Mississippi poll has GOP candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith on 51% to 46% for Democrat Mike Espy, though it may be closer than usual in the state

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Mississippi,_2018

Agreed. There isn't going to be a shock Dem win in MS tomorrow.

Can you predict a shock win? If it happens surely it is then expected?

kle4

May could end up setting a record - biggest ever defeat for a government?

ydoethur

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FT - US backs Kiev in naval clash

And the EU army is on stand by !!!!!!

No way would Britain get involved in a Crimean War...

Depends. Does Macron see himself as Napoleon III?

(The answer should be no. Napoleon III famously liked his women teenaged, whereas Macron is er, not that way inclined.)

AlastairMeeks

Everyone understandably is focusing on the possibility of an impeachment of the president. But how will American politics be changed if several Trump family members are indicted, even if he is not?

Philip_Thompson

kle4 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MikeSmithson said:

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

This deal is going nowhere. The Cabinet have got to pull the plug on Mrs May before it gets to 11th December.

The Cabinet cannot pull the plug TMay under Tory party rules. In any case she has delivered what most voters were expecting from Brexit. She had performed heroically against the elderly, white almost totally male nutters.

This will go down as her finest hour

Most voters were expecting a portion of our country to be disenfranchised and condemned to some undemocratic vassal state purgatory where they will be forever obliged to follow EU rules without getting a voice in elections over them?

You think it would be forever? You don't have much faith in our MPs, clearly, in which case I'm surprised you think they will do such a bang up job getting something else.

With no unilateral exit clause it will be forever unless the EU voluntarily relinquishes the vassal status . . . and that's not something I'm prepared to sign up to.

Big_G_NorthWales

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FT - US backs Kiev in naval clash

And the EU army is on stand by !!!!!!

No way would Britain get involved in a Crimean War...

Nato could

John_M

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FT - US backs Kiev in naval clash

And the EU army is on stand by !!!!!!

No way would Britain get involved in a Crimean War...

Nato could

Ukraine is not in NATO. However, NATO will do as the US pleases.

solarflare

On topic - but just barely: that graph looks like a fish.

Incisive analysis from solarflare

Foxy

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FT - US backs Kiev in naval clash

And the EU army is on stand by !!!!!!

No way would Britain get involved in a Crimean War...

Nato could

We could send a light brigade, for old times sake.

rcs1000

Philip_Thompson said:

MikeSmithson said:

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

This deal is going nowhere. The Cabinet have got to pull the plug on Mrs May before it gets to 11th December.

The Cabinet cannot pull the plug TMay under Tory party rules. In any case she has delivered what most voters were expecting from Brexit. She had performed heroically against the elderly, white almost totally male nutters.

This will go down as her finest hour

Most voters were expecting a portion of our country to be disenfranchised and condemned to some undemocratic vassal state purgatory where they will be forever obliged to follow EU rules without getting a voice in elections over them?

I suspect Northern Ireland would vote decisively in favor of the backstop in any referendum.

rpjs

AlastairMeeks said:

Everyone understandably is focusing on the possibility of an impeachment of the president. But how will American politics be changed if several Trump family members are indicted, even if he is not?

If trump pardoned them, probably even the Republican party would agree to impeachment and removal. Probably.

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MikeSmithson said:

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

This deal is going nowhere. The Cabinet have got to pull the plug on Mrs May before it gets to 11th December.

The Cabinet cannot pull the plug TMay under Tory party rules. In any case she has delivered what most voters were expecting from Brexit. She had performed heroically against the elderly, white almost totally male nutters.

This will go down as her finest hour

Most voters were expecting a portion of our country to be disenfranchised and condemned to some undemocratic vassal state purgatory where they will be forever obliged to follow EU rules without getting a voice in elections over them?

I suspect Northern Ireland would vote decisively in favor of the backstop in any referendum.

You favour a referendum on the deal then?

edmundintokyo

FrancisUrquhart said:

GIN1138 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

edmundintokyo said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1067155634955653130

It's the main reason and always has been.

I wonder if the voters will start to murmur murderously though, I think a lot of them are just assuming that somebody will work something out.

I thought for a second it was SeanT rather than SeanJones!

I think Sean T has other things on his mind on Twitter today...

“Theresa May is like some pathetic new liberal vicar in a rural village, accidentally summoning ancient demons by having a Be Nice To Rats car boot sale on top of a plague pit.”

You can see how he does this writing gig for a living!

He's wrong though, it was the previous vicar who summoned the ancient demons, by opening the box marked "opening this box will summon ancient demons"

Foxy

AlastairMeeks said:

Everyone understandably is focusing on the possibility of an impeachment of the president. But how will American politics be changed if several Trump family members are indicted, even if he is not?

An interesting comparison here on Trump, and a well known historical figure. The conclusion is stark though, even when Trump himself fades into history, his toxic legacy will live on.

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/what-happens-when-a-bad-tempered-distractible-doofus-runs-an-empire?mbid=social_twitter&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter&utm_brand=tny&utm_medium=social

HYUFD

Philip_Thompson said:

MikeSmithson said:

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

This deal is going nowhere. The Cabinet have got to pull the plug on Mrs May before it gets to 11th December.

The Cabinet cannot pull the plug TMay under Tory party rules. In any case she has delivered what most voters were expecting from Brexit. She had performed heroically against the elderly, white almost totally male nutters.

This will go down as her finest hour

Most voters were expecting a portion of our country to be disenfranchised and condemned to some undemocratic vassal state purgatory where they will be forever obliged to follow EU rules without getting a voice in elections over them?

Most voters were expecting 'the easiest trade deal in history' which was promised by the Leave campaign. Not the most complex exit from a Union agreement in history before trade talks are even begun. Campaign rhetoric has hit the reality of implementing Brexit

SquareRoot

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

edmundintokyo

rpjs said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Everyone understandably is focusing on the possibility of an impeachment of the president. But how will American politics be changed if several Trump family members are indicted, even if he is not?

If trump pardoned them, probably even the Republican party would agree to impeachment and removal. Probably.

Their primary electorate still lives Trump, no way they'd vote to impeach him for pardoning his own kids, they'd tut a bit then mutter something about his strong family values.

GIN1138

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

And that's exactly why the Cabinet would be well advised to threaten a complete walk out if Mrs May doesn't resign and take her deal with her before Dec 11th.

HYUFD

rpjs said:

HYUFD said:

The GOP should still win in Mississippi even with Trump's approval rating that low, indeed the latest Mississippi poll has GOP candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith on 51% to 46% for Democrat Mike Espy, though it may be closer than usual in the state

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Mississippi,_2018

Agreed. There isn't going to be a shock Dem win in MS tomorrow.

Yes, Mississippi had the 13th highest Trump vote of any US state in 2016 and Hyde-Smith is not Roy Moore.


Trump could lose by a landslide in 2020 and still win Mississippi

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

The GOP should still win in Mississippi even with Trump's approval rating that low, indeed the latest Mississippi poll has GOP candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith on 51% to 46% for Democrat Mike Espy, though it may be closer than usual in the state

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Mississippi,_2018

Agreed. Hard to see any other outcome though a big reduction of the GOP vote in such a Red stronghold won't look good

Yes it is the swing to the Democrats that will be of most interest, the GOP will hold it regardless

HYUFD

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

And that's exactly why the Cabinet would be well advised to threaten a complete walk out if Mrs May doesn't resign and take her deal with her before Dec 11th.

Hammond, Clarke, Lidington etc are apparently already ready to demand May switches to backing permanent UK membership of the Customs Union to get Labour MPs and potentially Corbyn's support if May cannot get her Deal through as it stands

williamglenn

edmundintokyo said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

GIN1138 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

edmundintokyo said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1067155634955653130

It's the main reason and always has been.

I wonder if the voters will start to murmur murderously though, I think a lot of them are just assuming that somebody will work something out.

I thought for a second it was SeanT rather than SeanJones!

I think Sean T has other things on his mind on Twitter today...

“Theresa May is like some pathetic new liberal vicar in a rural village, accidentally summoning ancient demons by having a Be Nice To Rats car boot sale on top of a plague pit.”

You can see how he does this writing gig for a living!

He's wrong though, it was the previous vicar who summoned the ancient demons, by opening the box marked "opening this box will summon ancient demons"

Theresa May is the New Age spiritualist who promises the villagers that they can have a deep and special relationship with their demons.

Sunil_Prasannan

ydoethur said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

Well, to continue the Second World War analogy, Chamberlain was defenestrated with a majority of 81 on a confidence vote. So a crushing defeat would be a victory.

Brexit has cost you your strength! Victory has defeated you!

Dura_Ace

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FT - US backs Kiev in naval clash

And the EU army is on stand by !!!!!!

No way would Britain get involved in a Crimean War...

Nato could

The NATO apologists on here are always saying that it's a defensive alliance. Unless the US bestows MNNA status on Ukraine (as they did with Argentina to give them cover for not getting involved in a future Falklands conflict) then NATO has no business in Ukraine.

justin124

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

The GOP should still win in Mississippi even with Trump's approval rating that low, indeed the latest Mississippi poll has GOP candidate Cindy Hyde-Smith on 51% to 46% for Democrat Mike Espy, though it may be closer than usual in the state

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Mississippi,_2018

Agreed. Hard to see any other outcome though a big reduction of the GOP vote in such a Red stronghold won't look good

Yes it is the swing to the Democrats that will be of most interest, the GOP will hold it regardless

Probably so - though a 5% lead is almost within margin of error.

IanB2

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MikeSmithson said:

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

This deal is going nowhere. The Cabinet have got to pull the plug on Mrs May before it gets to 11th December.

The Cabinet cannot pull the plug TMay under Tory party rules. In any case she has delivered what most voters were expecting from Brexit. She had performed heroically against the elderly, white almost totally male nutters.

This will go down as her finest hour

Most voters were expecting a portion of our country to be disenfranchised and condemned to some undemocratic vassal state purgatory where they will be forever obliged to follow EU rules without getting a voice in elections over them?

Most voters were expecting 'the easiest trade deal in history' which was promised by the Leave campaign. Not the most complex exit from a Union agreement in history before trade talks are even begun. Campaign rhetoric has hit the reality of implementing Brexit

As has yours!

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

And that's exactly why the Cabinet would be well advised to threaten a complete walk out if Mrs May doesn't resign and take her deal with her before Dec 11th.

Hammond, Clarke, Lidington etc are apparently already ready to demand May switches to backing permanent UK membership of the Customs Union to get Labour MPs and potentially Corbyn's support if May cannot get her Deal through as it stands

Ahah! Finally the men in grey grey men in suits arise!

SquareRoot

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

And that's exactly why the Cabinet would be well advised to threaten a complete walk out if Mrs May doesn't resign and take her deal with her before Dec 11th.

Really.. Its the ERG and other MP's who are being treacherous. Frankly they are just the sort of "bastards" that John Major had to deal with.

GIN1138

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

And that's exactly why the Cabinet would be well advised to threaten a complete walk out if Mrs May doesn't resign and take her deal with her before Dec 11th.

Hammond, Clarke, Lidington etc are apparently already ready to demand May switches to backing permanent UK membership of the Customs Union to get Labour MPs and potentially Corbyn's support if May cannot get her Deal through as it stands

Ahah! Finally the men in grey grey men in suits arise!

ralphmalph

kle4 said:

May could end up setting a record - biggest ever defeat for a government?

This is why I continue to believe that she is badly advised, any sensible person in her team would advise not to put this to a vote. It is very bad party management to alienate the two opposing sides leaving just the payroll vote in support.

williamglenn

“PM is biggest asset” = “You’re on your own”
https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1067173589542203394?s=21

GIN1138

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

And that's exactly why the Cabinet would be well advised to threaten a complete walk out if Mrs May doesn't resign and take her deal with her before Dec 11th.

Really.. Its the ERG and other MP's who are being treacherous. Frankly they are just the sort of "bastards" that John Major had to deal with.

I don't think you can blame it all on the ERG. It seems the vast majority of MP's on all sides of the House and on all wings of the Tory Party are repulsed by the backstop.

Theresa May should have known she couldn't possibly get this through without some sort of end date or other provision particularly as her government is relying on the DUP to survive...

Benpointer

ralphmalph said:

kle4 said:

May could end up setting a record - biggest ever defeat for a government?

This is why I continue to believe that she is badly advised, any sensible person in her team would advise not to put this to a vote. It is very bad party management to alienate the two opposing sides leaving just the payroll vote in support.

Do you think it's the advice? Or the deaf ears it's falling on?

ralphmalph

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

And that's exactly why the Cabinet would be well advised to threaten a complete walk out if Mrs May doesn't resign and take her deal with her before Dec 11th.

Hammond, Clarke, Lidington etc are apparently already ready to demand May switches to backing permanent UK membership of the Customs Union to get Labour MPs and potentially Corbyn's support if May cannot get her Deal through as it stands

They they have rocks for brains.

ydoethur

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

And that's exactly why the Cabinet would be well advised to threaten a complete walk out if Mrs May doesn't resign and take her deal with her before Dec 11th.

Hammond, Clarke, Lidington etc are apparently already ready to demand May switches to backing permanent UK membership of the Customs Union to get Labour MPs and potentially Corbyn's support if May cannot get her Deal through as it stands

Ahah! Finally the men in grey grey men in suits arise!

Are you implying here has been a Major development?

Good night.

Philip_Thompson

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MikeSmithson said:

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

This deal is going nowhere. The Cabinet have got to pull the plug on Mrs May before it gets to 11th December.

The Cabinet cannot pull the plug TMay under Tory party rules. In any case she has delivered what most voters were expecting from Brexit. She had performed heroically against the elderly, white almost totally male nutters.

This will go down as her finest hour

Most voters were expecting a portion of our country to be disenfranchised and condemned to some undemocratic vassal state purgatory where they will be forever obliged to follow EU rules without getting a voice in elections over them?

Most voters were expecting 'the easiest trade deal in history' which was promised by the Leave campaign. Not the most complex exit from a Union agreement in history before trade talks are even begun. Campaign rhetoric has hit the reality of implementing Brexit

Would have been easier had May not thrown away our aces.

Floater

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FT - US backs Kiev in naval clash

And the EU army is on stand by !!!!!!

Well, you made me laugh anyway.

williamglenn

Apparently Hunt suggested May should debate with Blair and frame it as her deal versus Remain.

Benpointer

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

And that's exactly why the Cabinet would be well advised to threaten a complete walk out if Mrs May doesn't resign and take her deal with her before Dec 11th.

Really.. Its the ERG and other MP's who are being treacherous. Frankly they are just the sort of "bastards" that John Major had to deal with.

I don't think you can blame it all on the ERG. It seems the vast majority of MP's on all sides of the House and on all wings of the Tory Party are repulsed by the backstop.

Theresa May should have known she couldn't possibly get this through without some sort of end date or other provision particularly as her government is relying on the DUP to survive...

That's piffle! A vociferous minority of the Tory party + the DUP are repulsed by the backstop. Pretty much all the other opponents of the deal want (misguidedly in my view) a 2nd referendum leading to Remain.

ralphmalph

Benpointer said:

ralphmalph said:

kle4 said:

May could end up setting a record - biggest ever defeat for a government?

This is why I continue to believe that she is badly advised, any sensible person in her team would advise not to put this to a vote. It is very bad party management to alienate the two opposing sides leaving just the payroll vote in support.

Do you think it's the advice? Or the deaf ears it's falling on?

A bit of both. but the advice is leading to the stubbornness. The ploy last week and continues tonight to get Labour votes to support her. Dumb as rocks, you can not trust Corbyn and it would create a huge chasm in the Tory party.

TOPPING

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

And that's exactly why the Cabinet would be well advised to threaten a complete walk out if Mrs May doesn't resign and take her deal with her before Dec 11th.

Really.. Its the ERG and other MP's who are being treacherous. Frankly they are just the sort of "bastards" that John Major had to deal with.

I don't think you can blame it all on the ERG. It seems the vast majority of MP's on all sides of the House and on all wings of the Tory Party are repulsed by the backstop.

Are they also repulsed by the sun rising every day?

Philip_Thompson

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MikeSmithson said:

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/peston/status/1067162440075542528?s=21

This deal is going nowhere. The Cabinet have got to pull the plug on Mrs May before it gets to 11th December.

The Cabinet cannot pull the plug TMay under Tory party rules. In any case she has delivered what most voters were expecting from Brexit. She had performed heroically against the elderly, white almost totally male nutters.

This will go down as her finest hour

Most voters were expecting a portion of our country to be disenfranchised and condemned to some undemocratic vassal state purgatory where they will be forever obliged to follow EU rules without getting a voice in elections over them?

I suspect Northern Ireland would vote decisively in favor of the backstop in any referendum.

If they do then I'd have no qualms with the backstop happening but only if they vote for it. Sacrificing other people's democratic rights shouldn't be chosen for them.

MaxPB

williamglenn said:

Apparently Hunt suggested May should debate with Blair and frame it as her deal versus Remain.

If there's anyone who can get remainers onto the leave train it's Blair! Top trolling by Hunt.

ExiledInScotland

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Everyone understandably is focusing on the possibility of an impeachment of the president. But how will American politics be changed if several Trump family members are indicted, even if he is not?

An interesting comparison here on Trump, and a well known historical figure. The conclusion is stark though, even when Trump himself fades into history, his toxic legacy will live on.

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/what-happens-when-a-bad-tempered-distractible-doofus-runs-an-empire?mbid=social_twitter&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter&utm_brand=tny&utm_medium=social

Very interesting. Thank you

dixiedean

ralphmalph said:

kle4 said:

May could end up setting a record - biggest ever defeat for a government?

This is why I continue to believe that she is badly advised, any sensible person in her team would advise not to put this to a vote. It is very bad party management to alienate the two opposing sides leaving just the payroll vote in support.

Raising this question. If, as seems likely, this is to fall by 100+ (and opposition seems to be hardening if anything), surely it will be a dash for the lifeboats. How many of the "payroll vote" will still be on the payroll come Wednesday 12th?
What incentive is there for the ambitious to vote for it? Given that they all know her reign will be short?

Benpointer

williamglenn said:

Apparently Hunt suggested May should debate with Blair and frame it as her deal versus Remain.

Mmmm... Blair might win that one. (But maybe that's what Hunt intended?)

Better by far, from her perspective, to debate with Corbyn - she'll run rings round him on the detail.

GIN1138

williamglenn said:

Apparently Hunt suggested May should debate with Blair and frame it as her deal versus Remain.

That would be a good watch...

HYUFD

ralphmalph said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

And that's exactly why the Cabinet would be well advised to threaten a complete walk out if Mrs May doesn't resign and take her deal with her before Dec 11th.

Hammond, Clarke, Lidington etc are apparently already ready to demand May switches to backing permanent UK membership of the Customs Union to get Labour MPs and potentially Corbyn's support if May cannot get her Deal through as it stands

They they have rocks for brains.

No, it is reality, after all the Commons only voted by 307 to 301 votes against staying in the Customs Union in July. That was a closer vote than the vote to invoke Article 50 to leave the EU and the vote to leave the Single Market and will likely be closer than the vote on May's Deal as it stands

Floater

Someone not happy with the Corbyn brothers

http://hurryupharry.org/2018/11/26/jeremy-corbyns-brother-spreads-neo-nazi-conspiracies/

Some very punchy stuff in there.

ralphmalph

williamglenn said:

Apparently Hunt suggested May should debate with Blair and frame it as her deal versus Remain.

And when he left the room he burst out laughing, so later on he can say "nothing to do with me guv it woz that May's deal, she said so on TV."

Benpointer

dixiedean said:

ralphmalph said:

kle4 said:

May could end up setting a record - biggest ever defeat for a government?

This is why I continue to believe that she is badly advised, any sensible person in her team would advise not to put this to a vote. It is very bad party management to alienate the two opposing sides leaving just the payroll vote in support.

Raising this question. If, as seems likely, this is to fall by 100+ (and opposition seems to be hardening if anything), surely it will be a dash for the lifeboats. How many of the "payroll vote" will still be on the payroll come Wednesday 12th?
What incentive is there for the ambitious to vote for it? Given that they all know her reign will be short?

I'm sure there could be a tipping point. But it's fascinating to watch her try to get it through.

If by any chance she does pull this off she'll be untouchable, surely?

GIN1138

TOPPING said:

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

And that's exactly why the Cabinet would be well advised to threaten a complete walk out if Mrs May doesn't resign and take her deal with her before Dec 11th.

Really.. Its the ERG and other MP's who are being treacherous. Frankly they are just the sort of "bastards" that John Major had to deal with.

I don't think you can blame it all on the ERG. It seems the vast majority of MP's on all sides of the House and on all wings of the Tory Party are repulsed by the backstop.

Are they also repulsed by the sun rising every day?

It's not my fault Theresa's flogging a dead horse...

IanB2

She can hardly not put a deal already struck with the EU to a vote. Especially as Parliament was promised a vote having had a vote to ask for a vote.

ralphmalph

HYUFD said:

ralphmalph said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

And that's exactly why the Cabinet would be well advised to threaten a complete walk out if Mrs May doesn't resign and take her deal with her before Dec 11th.

Hammond, Clarke, Lidington etc are apparently already ready to demand May switches to backing permanent UK membership of the Customs Union to get Labour MPs and potentially Corbyn's support if May cannot get her Deal through as it stands

They they have rocks for brains.

No, it is reality, after all the Commons only voted by 307 to 301 votes against staying in the Customs Union in July. That was a closer vote than the vote to invoke Article 50 to leave the EU and the vote to leave the Single Market and will likely be closer than the vote on May's Deal as it stands

That vote was because the Labour Party were causing trouble and the ERG backed May. Do the same now and the Labour Party would still want to cause trouble so they would vote against and the DUP and ERG would join them. Big defeat for May.

justin124

HYUFD said:

ralphmalph said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

SquareRoot said:

GIN1138 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This will go down as her finest hour

Her finest hour will be a crushing defeat on the floor of the Commons?

It will show up who the real scum are in the Tory Party. I don't want to be in a party that has such awful people in it. I am going to be one of the, "no idea who to vote for" if the Tory Party does not support its leader.

And that's exactly why the Cabinet would be well advised to threaten a complete walk out if Mrs May doesn't resign and take her deal with her before Dec 11th.

Hammond, Clarke, Lidington etc are apparently already ready to demand May switches to backing permanent UK membership of the Customs Union to get Labour MPs and potentially Corbyn's support if May cannot get her Deal through as it stands

They they have rocks for brains.

No, it is reality, after all the Commons only voted by 307 to 301 votes against staying in the Customs Union in July. That was a closer vote than the vote to invoke Article 50 to leave the EU and the vote to leave the Single Market and will likely be closer than the vote on May's Deal as it stands

Was that not the vote when pairing agreements were broken by the Tories? If so, the real majority was even smaller.

dixiedean

And, incidentally, what is the record defeat for a government on a vote in the HoC? Anyone know?

Philip_Thompson

I wonder whether the mooted plan to have a second vote after a TARP-style market reaction to the first vote going down might have one fatal flaw. The markets surely expect the vote to fail and thus its failure will already be priced in to market rates thus any reaction would be minimal.

TARP was expected by the markets to be passed, its failure was unexpected. Just as the markets had expected a remain vote. Its when things go against expectations that we see dramatic changes.

Foxy

Benpointer said:

williamglenn said:

Apparently Hunt suggested May should debate with Blair and frame it as her deal versus Remain.

Mmmm... Blair might win that one. (But maybe that's what Hunt intended?)

Better by far, from her perspective, to debate with Corbyn - she'll run rings round him on the detail.

Possibly, but he will nail her on the rhetoric and soundbites. No-one is interested in tractor stats delivered by a speak your weight machine.

Debates are about theatre, if you want facts and analysis, look elsewhere.

ralphmalph

IanB2 said:

She can hardly not put a deal already struck with the EU to a vote. Especially as Parliament was promised a vote having had a vote to ask for a vote.

For full clarity I did not mean she moved forward with the WDA without a vote. I meant that she should have binned it and told the House that no deal has been reached with the EU that would be acceptable to Parliament.

FrancisUrquhart

Floater said:

Someone not happy with the Corbyn brothers

http://hurryupharry.org/2018/11/26/jeremy-corbyns-brother-spreads-neo-nazi-conspiracies/

Some very punchy stuff in there.

It sad that none of that will make a blind bit of difference.

IanB2

dixiedean said:

And, incidentally, what is the record defeat for a government on a vote in the HoC? Anyone know?

The Labour opposition day motions last year, when the Tory party chose to abstain.

On an actual decision, probably on MPs pay under Major in the 90s?

Philip_Thompson

ralphmalph said:

IanB2 said:

She can hardly not put a deal already struck with the EU to a vote. Especially as Parliament was promised a vote having had a vote to ask for a vote.

For full clarity I did not mean she moved forward with the WDA without a vote. I meant that she should have binned it and told the House that no deal has been reached with the EU that would be acceptable to Parliament.

She should have but wasn't prepared to not reach a deal, hence she got a shit one.
Same as Cameron, he wasn't prepared to not reach a deal, hence he got a shit one.

The key to getting a good deal is to be prepared not to get one.

ExiledInScotland

Benpointer said:

williamglenn said:

Apparently Hunt suggested May should debate with Blair and frame it as her deal versus Remain.

Mmmm... Blair might win that one. (But maybe that's what Hunt intended?)

Better by far, from her perspective, to debate with Corbyn - she'll run rings round him on the detail.

The public don't care about detail. They look for leadership and an aura of competence, failing that then authenticity. There is no upside for May.

justin124

Blair was not always that good a debater - more of a smarmy salesman type actor. Not in the same league as Robin Cook - or Harold Wilson.

Benpointer

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

williamglenn said:

Apparently Hunt suggested May should debate with Blair and frame it as her deal versus Remain.

Mmmm... Blair might win that one. (But maybe that's what Hunt intended?)

Better by far, from her perspective, to debate with Corbyn - she'll run rings round him on the detail.

Possibly, but he will nail her on the rhetoric and soundbites. No-one is interested in tractor stats delivered by a speak your weight machine.

Debates are about theatre, if you want facts and analysis, look elsewhere.

I do get that but there's surely only so much fluff and nonesense about Brexit that Corbyn can get away with? Plus he could lose his cool whihc is always amusing.

I am still coming at this with a view that wonders what it is precisely about May's transition Deal that Corbyn would actually want to change?

ralphmalph

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder whether the mooted plan to have a second vote after a TARP-style market reaction to the first vote going down might have one fatal flaw. The markets surely expect the vote to fail and thus its failure will already be priced in to market rates thus any reaction would be minimal.

TARP was expected by the markets to be passed, its failure was unexpected. Just as the markets had expected a remain vote. Its when things go against expectations that we see dramatic changes.

It would be even funnier if the house voted down the WDA and the pound rose because the markets thought that some sensible people do actually inhabit the place.

Philip_Thompson

IanB2 said:

dixiedean said:

And, incidentally, what is the record defeat for a government on a vote in the HoC? Anyone know?

The Labour opposition day motions last year, when the Tory party chose to abstain.

What about on a proper whipped vote where the government has three line whipped an affirmative vote?

Philip_Thompson

ralphmalph said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder whether the mooted plan to have a second vote after a TARP-style market reaction to the first vote going down might have one fatal flaw. The markets surely expect the vote to fail and thus its failure will already be priced in to market rates thus any reaction would be minimal.

TARP was expected by the markets to be passed, its failure was unexpected. Just as the markets had expected a remain vote. Its when things go against expectations that we see dramatic changes.

It would be even funnier if the house voted down the WDA and the pound rose because the markets thought that some sensible people do actually inhabit the place.

I suspect it will go down but we'll see graphs with stupidly zoomed in y-axes to make it look significant.

Benpointer

ralphmalph said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder whether the mooted plan to have a second vote after a TARP-style market reaction to the first vote going down might have one fatal flaw. The markets surely expect the vote to fail and thus its failure will already be priced in to market rates thus any reaction would be minimal.

TARP was expected by the markets to be passed, its failure was unexpected. Just as the markets had expected a remain vote. Its when things go against expectations that we see dramatic changes.

It would be even funnier if the house voted down the WDA and the pound rose because the markets thought that some sensible people do actually inhabit the place.

Unicorn alert!

williamglenn

justin124 said:

Blair was not always that good a debater - more of a smarmy salesman type actor. Not in the same league as Robin Cook - or Harold Wilson.

Although Brexit is really the first time since 1997 that he's been the opposition, which is possibly where he's most effective.

IanB2

Philip_Thompson said:

ralphmalph said:

IanB2 said:

She can hardly not put a deal already struck with the EU to a vote. Especially as Parliament was promised a vote having had a vote to ask for a vote.

For full clarity I did not mean she moved forward with the WDA without a vote. I meant that she should have binned it and told the House that no deal has been reached with the EU that would be acceptable to Parliament.

She should have but wasn't prepared to not reach a deal, hence she got a shit one.
Same as Cameron, he wasn't prepared to not reach a deal, hence he got a shit one.

The key to getting a good deal is to be prepared not to get one.

When business panicked after the referendum, they were promised a deal by HMG. So preparing for not having one was never realistic.

Benpointer

ExiledInScotland said:

Benpointer said:

williamglenn said:

Apparently Hunt suggested May should debate with Blair and frame it as her deal versus Remain.

Mmmm... Blair might win that one. (But maybe that's what Hunt intended?)

Better by far, from her perspective, to debate with Corbyn - she'll run rings round him on the detail.

The public don't care about detail. They look for leadership and an aura of competence, failing that then authenticity. There is no upside for May.

Well, it's a view. You might be right but anecdotally, people I've been speaking to (Tory & Labour, Leavers & Remainers) generally want May to get on with it and can't see what Jezza's bleating on about.

rcs1000

AlastairMeeks said:

Everyone understandably is focusing on the possibility of an impeachment of the president. But how will American politics be changed if several Trump family members are indicted, even if he is not?

It's a witch hunt. It's fake news.

I think the answer is that any trial would be incredibly poisoned by the President's constant tweets about it. As it would be impossible for the defendants to have a fair trial, there would be a mistrial, which Trump would spin as proof that there was nothing to see here.

And which his base would believe.