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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Monkey’s paw. Delivering on the referendum campaign promises

Voters overwhelmingly now remember only two arguments being made in favour of Brexit before the referendum: curb immigration & more money for the NHS. pic.twitter.com/6bmcd3Tvwk

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Polruan

In general governments don’t take on votes in the Commons that there’s a significant chance of losing - most defeats are because of bad whipping/management, or arm-twisting being underway until the last minute and not quite producing enough votes. May has buckled quickly on most E.U. votes so far and conceded plenty of amendments to avoid defeat, but it’s hard to see how that’s possible in this case. I guess that means I’m sceptical that the vote will actually happen at all, but I don’t see how it can be avoided.

Is there any scope to buy off rebels by supporting various amendments insisting the Government must return to the E.U. and seek to reopen some parts of the negotiation, but without a commitment to a further vote if the E.U. says no? My sense is that would save enough face to get maybe 20-30 more Tory votes, but a mountain of 100+ is just too big to climb. So does the vote proceed or is yet another interim fudge being cooked up?