Interesting analysis as always from David. I think the chance of a second referendum is a bit higher than David does, as a possible consequence of Parliament rejecting the deal. As Parliament has been unable to agree, the issue can be passed to the electorate on a Deal vs Remain vs No Deal basis, with an alternative vote system. That has attractions for May, because she might well get the deal through on that basis because it's the "middle option"; it also appeals to Remainers as they get another shot; it gives the ERG at least a chance of what they want. Above all, it rids Parliament of having to decide itself when it's manifestly unable to, while avoiding an election which Tory MPs don't want.
Note that, without going into legal matters, it is possible that there will shortly be a by-election due in a marginal Conservative seat. I imagine Farage will have another go if that happens.
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Note that, without going into legal matters, it is possible that there will shortly be a by-election due in a marginal Conservative seat. I imagine Farage will have another go if that happens.
If the deal is voted down May could support Remain, having proposed a referendum, in a choice between leaving without any deal and staying in.