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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Dems win the House while defeated O’Rourke becomes 3rd fav

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Dems win the House while defeated O’Rourke becomes 3rd favourite to win WH2020

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited November 2018
    0 (or should I say zeroth?)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    CNN projects the Democrats have taken the House while the GOP hold the Senate.

    The House is currently Dems 156 GOP 157.

    The Senate is currently GOP 50 Dems 40

    https://edition.cnn.com/
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    I've just got up. From skimming the previous thread, 538 is all over the shop.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060022696703070208?s=20
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060022696703070208?s=20

    As predicted by Mr Galloway:

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1060018432060653570
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    HYUFD said:

    CNN projects the Democrats have taken the House while the GOP hold the Senate.

    The House is currently Dems 156 GOP 157.

    The Senate is currently GOP 50 Dems 40

    https://edition.cnn.com/

    Dems now take the lead in the House on 167 seats to 164 for the GOP.

    The GOP lead in the Senate on 50 seats to 42 for the Dems.


    https://edition.cnn.com/

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Dems look to have gained the Governorships of Michigan, Illinois, Kansas and New Mexico too, though the GOP have held the Florida and Ohio Governorships

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-governor-elections.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Speaker elect Nancy Pelosi arrives for her victory speech as she returns to the Speakership of the House of Representatives 8 years after losing it

    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-2018/index.html
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    HYUFD said:

    Speaker elect Nancy Pelosi arrives for her victory speech as she returns to the Speakership of the House of Representatives 8 years after losing it

    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-2018/index.html

    Do we know for sure her party will elect her?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Arizona is going to be in play for the next week I reckon. Sinema catching up slightly.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    In other news:

    https://twitter.com/business/status/1059979366971723776
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edmundintokyo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speaker elect Nancy Pelosi arrives for her victory speech as she returns to the Speakership of the House of Representatives 8 years after losing it

    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-2018/index.html

    Do we know for sure her party will elect her?
    She has twice taken the House for the Democrats and she was elected minority leader by her caucus so almost certainly
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    HYUFD said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speaker elect Nancy Pelosi arrives for her victory speech as she returns to the Speakership of the House of Representatives 8 years after losing it

    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-2018/index.html

    Do we know for sure her party will elect her?
    She has twice taken the House for the Democrats and she was elected minority leader by her caucus so almost certainly
    I wouldn't be so sure. It's going to be quite a different caucus.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,296
    It’s going to be a long couple of year for some in the White House:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/05/trump-aides-2018-elections-961970
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Which is more important in the grand scheme of things ?

    Senate or House ?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Which is more important in the grand scheme of things ?

    Senate or House ?

    Culturally, the Senate. Economically, the House.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Which is more important in the grand scheme of things ?

    Senate or House ?

    Culturally, the Senate. Economically, the House.
    Does the House potentially get to block another SCOTUS pick ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Tissue_Price said:

    HYUFD said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speaker elect Nancy Pelosi arrives for her victory speech as she returns to the Speakership of the House of Representatives 8 years after losing it

    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-2018/index.html

    Do we know for sure her party will elect her?
    She has twice taken the House for the Democrats and she was elected minority leader by her caucus so almost certainly
    I wouldn't be so sure. It's going to be quite a different caucus.
    Who can compete with her stirring rhetoric?

    https://twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1060029803728986113?s=21
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Tissue_Price said:

    HYUFD said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speaker elect Nancy Pelosi arrives for her victory speech as she returns to the Speakership of the House of Representatives 8 years after losing it

    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-2018/index.html

    Do we know for sure her party will elect her?
    She has twice taken the House for the Democrats and she was elected minority leader by her caucus so almost certainly
    I wouldn't be so sure. It's going to be quite a different caucus.
    Pelosi was re elected Minority leader by 134 to 63 over challenger Tim Ryan in late November 2016 and those 134 representatives are well over half the 230 to Democrats are projected to win tonight.


    Pelosi is also an extremely effective leglislator as she showed when she got Obamacare through
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Which is more important in the grand scheme of things ?

    Senate or House ?

    Culturally, the Senate. Economically, the House.
    Does the House potentially get to block another SCOTUS pick ?
    No, it is the Senate that does that and passes Treaties, the House will be able to block Trump's budget and domestic agenda though
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Which is more important in the grand scheme of things ?

    Senate or House ?

    Culturally, the Senate. Economically, the House.
    Does the House potentially get to block another SCOTUS pick ?
    Nope. Senate in charge of ratifying appointments and foreign policy. House in charge of the budget.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/DavidAFrench/status/1060033437518708736
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    williamglenn said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    HYUFD said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speaker elect Nancy Pelosi arrives for her victory speech as she returns to the Speakership of the House of Representatives 8 years after losing it

    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-2018/index.html

    Do we know for sure her party will elect her?
    She has twice taken the House for the Democrats and she was elected minority leader by her caucus so almost certainly
    I wouldn't be so sure. It's going to be quite a different caucus.
    Who can compete with her stirring rhetoric?

    https://twitter.com/kenvogel/status/1060029803728986113?s=21
    The Democrats won 31 seats in 2006 last time they took the House, if they ended up with 35 gains it would be their biggest House gain since the 49 seats they picked up in the 1974 midterms after Watergate
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A mixed night for both parties.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AndyJS said:

    A mixed night for both parties.

    A mixed night for the parties but a good night for President Trump given it is the Senate which will rubber stamp his appointments and block impeachment. In theory, losing the House means Trump probably can't pass much legislation but I doubt he was planning to.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    AndyJS said:

    A mixed night for both parties.

    A mixed night for the parties but a good night for President Trump given it is the Senate which will rubber stamp his appointments and block impeachment. In theory, losing the House means Trump probably can't pass much legislation but I doubt he was planning to.
    The House will begin a lot of investigations though - I suspect Trump won't like that level of scrutiny. But otherwise yes, I think it's a good night for him.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    HYUFD said:


    Pelosi was re elected Minority leader by 134 to 63 over challenger Tim Ryan in late November 2016 and those 134 representatives are well over half the 230 to Democrats are projected to win tonight.

    Pelosi is also an extremely effective leglislator as she showed when she got Obamacare through

    And thanks to her passing it, the voters finally found out what's in it...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    I'm with Emily on this one:

    https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1060016369700429824
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    A mixed night for both parties.

    Good for the GOP in the Senate which is now more Trumpian, and the newbies owe him big.

    In the House not a single incoming chairman is younger than the outgoing GOP one. Some are in their 70s and more. The young intake are going to bridle if the oldsters hog all the limelight. Pelosi will either be speaker, kingmaker or both. She is good at uniting disparate opinions in her party.

    The new GOP governors owe him big too. But with states like FL etc it sets the GOP up for 2020.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Looks like GA is staying GOP too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    A mixed night for both parties.

    Good for the GOP in the Senate which is now more Trumpian, and the newbies owe him big.

    In the House not a single incoming chairman is younger than the outgoing GOP one. Some are in their 70s and more. The young intake are going to bridle if the oldsters hog all the limelight. Pelosi will either be speaker, kingmaker or both. She is good at uniting disparate opinions in her party.

    The new GOP governors owe him big too. But with states like FL etc it sets the GOP up for 2020.
    It's a very mixed picture. The Senate is clearly a great result for the Republicans.

    But.

    The Democrats were 9% ahead nationwide. In the last 30 years, which is - what - 15 sets of House of Representatives elections, there was exactly one where a party had a lead bigger. And that preceded a big win two years later.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Tim_B said:

    Looks like GA is staying GOP too.

    Georgia's the state where only personal friends of the governor are allowed to vote.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1060045555177545728?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    Good news for those betting on a high turnout?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Tim_B said:

    Looks like GA is staying GOP too.

    How could it not have? Democrats weren’t allowed to vote, were they??

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    The Dems in the Senate were devastated by the smear campaign against Brett Kavanaugh. Joe Manchin was leading in the polls 3 weeks ago by 16 points. He won by just over 3. The point has already been made about several of those who voted against Kavanaugh losing. If Manchin had voted against Kavanaugh he would have lost reelection.

    The other thing - and it's a point I've made before is that under Obama the dems were devastated at the state and local level to the extent that the GOP held more governorships and state assemblies than at any time in the last 80 years.

    Given that, the GOP suffered far fewer loses at that level than could have been reasonably expected. So they saved both the senate and the state and local seats.

    The other curious thing is that Obama on the campaign trail achieved absolutely nothing.

    Rick Scott has now won elections by 1 point, 2 points, and less than a point.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Now, here's a close race...

    https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/california-house-district-48
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    It will be interesting how Trump plays this from here. Although the Republicans control the Senate, the Democrats in the House can use their powers to potentially moderate the choices Trump makes. If, for example, he continues to make highly partisan judicial picks his tax returns may well come into play.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    rkrkrk said:

    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1060045555177545728?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    Good news for those betting on a high turnout?

    Back of the envelope calculation suggests that's a turnout of about 49%, very high for a mid-term.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Tim_B said:

    The Dems in the Senate were devastated by the smear campaign against Brett Kavanaugh. Joe Manchin was leading in the polls 3 weeks ago by 16 points. He won by just over 3. The point has already been made about several of those who voted against Kavanaugh losing. If Manchin had voted against Kavanaugh he would have lost reelection.

    The other thing - and it's a point I've made before is that under Obama the dems were devastated at the state and local level to the extent that the GOP held more governorships and state assemblies than at any time in the last 80 years.

    Given that, the GOP suffered far fewer loses at that level than could have been reasonably expected. So they saved both the senate and the state and local seats.

    The other curious thing is that Obama on the campaign trail achieved absolutely nothing.

    Rick Scott has now won elections by 1 point, 2 points, and less than a point.

    With all due respect, the Democratic Senatorial candidates in Missouri, North Dakota, and Indiana all outperformed the sum of their House colleagues. (I haven't run the numbers for Florida.) So, while there may have been an effect, it's difficult to argue it was massive. Certainly, they weren't penalised relative to their House colleagues.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    SouthamObserver said:

    It will be interesting how Trump plays this from here. Although the Republicans control the Senate, the Democrats in the House can use their powers to potentially moderate the choices Trump makes. If, for example, he continues to make highly partisan judicial picks his tax returns may well come into play.

    The Dems will go after his tax returns anyway, and he will continue to nominate judges.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    Tim_B said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    It will be interesting how Trump plays this from here. Although the Republicans control the Senate, the Democrats in the House can use their powers to potentially moderate the choices Trump makes. If, for example, he continues to make highly partisan judicial picks his tax returns may well come into play.

    The Dems will go after his tax returns anyway, and he will continue to nominate judges.
    Yep, his tax returns are going to be made public.
    Will be a great bait and switch from Trump if there is actually nothing interesting in them.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Tim_B said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    It will be interesting how Trump plays this from here. Although the Republicans control the Senate, the Democrats in the House can use their powers to potentially moderate the choices Trump makes. If, for example, he continues to make highly partisan judicial picks his tax returns may well come into play.

    The Dems will go after his tax returns anyway, and he will continue to nominate judges.

    It’s not just tax returns!

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Who won the Texas tipster competition?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Tim_B said:

    Looks like GA is staying GOP too.

    IT looks like Georgia is going to finish in the courts actually, on that margin and with that level of controversy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    SouthamObserver said:

    Tim_B said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    It will be interesting how Trump plays this from here. Although the Republicans control the Senate, the Democrats in the House can use their powers to potentially moderate the choices Trump makes. If, for example, he continues to make highly partisan judicial picks his tax returns may well come into play.

    The Dems will go after his tax returns anyway, and he will continue to nominate judges.

    It’s not just tax returns!

    We don't need to find out if what they say about his ummm, appendages is true, thanks.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    edited November 2018
    The bottom line is that the US remains horribly, bitterly divided. How long can a country sustain a situation in which the minority continues to hold sway over the majority?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    rkrkrk said:

    Tim_B said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    It will be interesting how Trump plays this from here. Although the Republicans control the Senate, the Democrats in the House can use their powers to potentially moderate the choices Trump makes. If, for example, he continues to make highly partisan judicial picks his tax returns may well come into play.

    The Dems will go after his tax returns anyway, and he will continue to nominate judges.
    Yep, his tax returns are going to be made public.
    Will be a great bait and switch from Trump if there is actually nothing interesting in them.
    They are going to make his life hell. They can choose to legislate or litigate. The sensible choice would be to legislate, but they were elected to go after Trump and that's what they'll do.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    tlg86 said:

    Who won the Texas tipster competition?

    Certainly not me. That was a great deal closer than I was expecting.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    ydoethur said:

    Tim_B said:

    Looks like GA is staying GOP too.

    IT looks like Georgia is going to finish in the courts actually, on that margin and with that level of controversy.
    Homeland Security, FBI and the GBI are already investigating. It was reported monday that the GBI have opened a criminal investigation. That's all I know.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    ydoethur said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Tim_B said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    It will be interesting how Trump plays this from here. Although the Republicans control the Senate, the Democrats in the House can use their powers to potentially moderate the choices Trump makes. If, for example, he continues to make highly partisan judicial picks his tax returns may well come into play.

    The Dems will go after his tax returns anyway, and he will continue to nominate judges.

    It’s not just tax returns!

    We don't need to find out if what they say about his ummm, appendages is true, thanks.
    You mean he has big hanging chads?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    ydoethur said:

    Tim_B said:

    Looks like GA is staying GOP too.

    IT looks like Georgia is going to finish in the courts actually, on that margin and with that level of controversy.

    ‪Generally, it looks like the Republicans are winning most of the close races. That clearly shows the importance of voter suppression and the gerrymander.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Looks like all 3 of the very Red states that had ballot measures on expanding Medicare has passed it. With the Maine governor departing that state's ballot result from 2017 can enacted as well. Makes it even harder to unpick Obamacare post 2020.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Tim_B said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tim_B said:

    Looks like GA is staying GOP too.

    IT looks like Georgia is going to finish in the courts actually, on that margin and with that level of controversy.
    Homeland Security, FBI and the GBI are already investigating. It was reported monday that the GBI have opened a criminal investigation. That's all I know.
    Surely the Dems will challenge it as well. What with voter registration, machine problems, conflicts of interest and allegations of fraud it sounded like something out of the Welsh Valleys a banana republic.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    edited November 2018
    The Republicans are going to have to find ways to suppress suburban women voters more effectively!
  • JenSJenS Posts: 91
    SouthamObserver said:

    The bottom line is that the US remains horribly, bitterly divided. How long can a country sustain a situation in which the minority continues to hold sway over the majority?

    Actually isn’t that the case in most countries for most of history? Democracy is not a natural state of affairs. The USA is still,broadly speaking, a democracy but it is not a fully functioning one. Not only does its much vaunted constitution not procure majority rule, there is also the serious problem that it does not have an independent judiciary. The normalisation of gerrymandering and vote rigging (through voter suppression) isn’t great either.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rkrkrk said:

    Tim_B said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    It will be interesting how Trump plays this from here. Although the Republicans control the Senate, the Democrats in the House can use their powers to potentially moderate the choices Trump makes. If, for example, he continues to make highly partisan judicial picks his tax returns may well come into play.

    The Dems will go after his tax returns anyway, and he will continue to nominate judges.
    Yep, his tax returns are going to be made public.
    Will be a great bait and switch from Trump if there is actually nothing interesting in them.
    Rich guy doesn't pay much tax, is what I imagine is in them. It's on a par with the idiots over here who used to attack David Cameron for being posh: it's priced in.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Michigan becomes another populous state to legalise recreational pot. With the US trend and news the incoming Mexican administration is going to legalise as well we are well on our way to North America wide legalisation. That's got to provoke change in Europe at some point.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    So the polls were pretty much right. They said the GOP would hold the senate, and the Dems would gain the house, and that is what happened. Not much surprising about last night other than Gillum’s loss and Donelly doing as bad as he did in Indiana. While Kavanaugh wouldn’t have helped the Dems in the Senate, it would have had the reverse effect re for the house.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Abrams in GA, 115k votes and 3 points behind, is rumored to be seeking a recount.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    I said 229 for the Dems. Surely 1 Republican can pull off a surprise yet?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    tlg86 said:

    Who won the Texas tipster competition?

    My guess of 48.14 looks pretty close.
    DavidL may regret revising his guess downwards...

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/10/08/prize-competition-your-chance-to-win-the-definitive-work-on-what-happened-at-ge2017/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505
    Looks like Shadsy priced his under/over for Dem seats in the House just right at 228.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Tim_B said:

    They are going to make his life hell. They can choose to legislate or litigate. The sensible choice would be to legislate, but they were elected to go after Trump and that's what they'll do.

    Sorry, why is this either-or?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Looks like the Democrats have picked up two Trifectas and broken several Republican Trifectas.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    edited November 2018
    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edmundintokyo said:

    Tim_B said:

    They are going to make his life hell. They can choose to legislate or litigate. The sensible choice would be to legislate, but they were elected to go after Trump and that's what they'll do.

    Sorry, why is this either-or?
    Legislate implies reaching across the aisle. To the newbies, going after Trump is red meat, and cooperation isn't. Pelosi has her work cut out.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    In the words of Dick Cheney: Reagan showed that deficits don't matter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Tim_B said:

    ydoethur said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Tim_B said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    It will be interesting how Trump plays this from here. Although the Republicans control the Senate, the Democrats in the House can use their powers to potentially moderate the choices Trump makes. If, for example, he continues to make highly partisan judicial picks his tax returns may well come into play.

    The Dems will go after his tax returns anyway, and he will continue to nominate judges.

    It’s not just tax returns!

    We don't need to find out if what they say about his ummm, appendages is true, thanks.
    You mean he has big hanging chads?
    I understand it's more a dimpled chad.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1060050922066399232
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    Indeed, if he can extend 3-4% growth until after 2020 and find a way to embrace the ACA I don't see how he loses in 2020. Could even be a landslide.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited November 2018
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1060050922066399232

    Isn't that meaningless given the different populations of the states? And it also ignores the fact the Dems won more senate seats tonight by quite a margin.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    The dems have been doing the Resistance at all costs thing against Trump since the 2016 election. It remains to be seen after this election if they are more inclined to give him any success at all.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    rkrkrk said:

    tlg86 said:

    Who won the Texas tipster competition?

    My guess of 48.14 looks pretty close.
    DavidL may regret revising his guess downwards...

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/10/08/prize-competition-your-chance-to-win-the-definitive-work-on-what-happened-at-ge2017/
    Yes I took the third party candidate seriously. Always a mistake.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    On the progressive ballot measures it's taxes and carbon prices that are being defeated. In terms of sweeties - voting rights, legal/recreational pot, medicare expansion and higher minimum wages are passing - even in very red states.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    The dems have been doing the Resistance at all costs thing against Trump since the 2016 election. It remains to be seen after this election if they are more inclined to give him any success at all.
    I don't think it's about success. It's about whether their behaviour gives him an alibi for his failure.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    Trump used to talk about reforming and replacing Obamacare rather than scrapping it, which was really the old establishment House GOP policy. This is one reason I do not think losing the House matters very much to the president: the House Republicans were using Trump rather than vice versa.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1060050922066399232

    Isn't that meaningless given the different populations of the states? And it also ignores the fact the Dems won more senate seats tonight by quite a margin.
    Wyoming has the same number of senate seats as NY or CA - 2
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1060050922066399232

    Isn't that meaningless given the different populations of the states? And it also ignores the fact the Dems won more senate seats tonight by quite a margin.
    Yes given that 65 senate seats weren't up for grabs.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Tim_B said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Tim_B said:

    They are going to make his life hell. They can choose to legislate or litigate. The sensible choice would be to legislate, but they were elected to go after Trump and that's what they'll do.

    Sorry, why is this either-or?
    Legislate implies reaching across the aisle. To the newbies, going after Trump is red meat, and cooperation isn't. Pelosi has her work cut out.
    If Pelosi continues to be Leader. She may well be for now, but for how long?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2018
    I feel like Trump would have already attempted to re brand Obamacare as Trumpcare if that was on his agenda. The talk of that reminds me a lot of when people speculated about Trump being the first President to be able to act on America’s issues with guns.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Tester is trailing in MT senate race wuth 58% in
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    According to Danish TV (I'm over here for a few days for work), the Democrat lead in votes nationally is currently 53-47 - less than most polls, though well ahead of Rasmussen. Subject to change when all the results are in, of course.

    On topic, Beto certainly did well in the national context - getting over 47% in Texas when Democrats were being battered elsewhere for the Senate.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Looks like a recount in WI race. 635 vote difference.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1060050922066399232

    The Senate is designed to represent all states equally at a national level, not proportionately represent the national vote.

    There is a much better argument that the House should, however.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Where the Republicans will grind out a narrative are picking up an extra Senate seat or two above expectations, losing 2 or so less Governors than predicted and the early timing of the Florida results which were very poor for the Democrats.

    In short the Republican's will argue that the fact there has been no Blue Tsunami ( there hasn't ) means there hasn't be a Blue Wave. ( There has ) Expect narrative wars for a few weeks untill the impending net of subpoenas takes over discourse.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Looks like the vote suppression tactics of the Republicans has been enough to tip the scales in a number of races. Enraging to see this behaviour rewarded in Georgia, Missouri, North Dakota and likely others I don't yet know the details of.

    Democrats need to remember threat they have a bigger problem than Trump.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    It looks like the Republicans are going to do even better in the Senate than forecast. The Dems will be particularly disappointed to lose Florida. That does not bode well for 2020.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited November 2018
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1060050922066399232

    Isn't that meaningless given the different populations of the states? And it also ignores the fact the Dems won more senate seats tonight by quite a margin.
    Wyoming has the same number of senate seats as NY or CA - 2
    And let's not forget that voters in California get to choose between a Democrat and a Democrat.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think if Trump embraces the ACA and turn it into Trumpcare he'll walk 2020. The rest 9f his platform is not as unpopular as the media likes to pretend.

    I think that's true. If he can rebrand Obamacare as Trumpcare... That being said, he's applying a lot of fiscal stimulus late in the economic cycle. That rarely ends well - albeit my money would be on the consequences being felt after the 2020 election
    In the words of Dick Cheney: Reagan showed that deficits don't matter.
    Reagan applied fiscal stimulus early in the economic cycle and tightened later. Through Reagan's Presidency, debt to gdp fell markedly.

    But that's really not the point. If you apply stimulus to an economy near capacity, you will introduce inflation. The only question is whether it manifests itself before, or after 2020.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    JenS said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The bottom line is that the US remains horribly, bitterly divided. How long can a country sustain a situation in which the minority continues to hold sway over the majority?

    Actually isn’t that the case in most countries for most of history? Democracy is not a natural state of affairs. The USA is still,broadly speaking, a democracy but it is not a fully functioning one. Not only does its much vaunted constitution not procure majority rule, there is also the serious problem that it does not have an independent judiciary. The normalisation of gerrymandering and vote rigging (through voter suppression) isn’t great either.
    A turnout of less than half and yet still people have to stand in line for hours to vote isn't a great look either.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    edited November 2018
    Steve King, who is so far-right that the GOP withdrew support for him, has squeaked home:
    https://www.vox.com/2018/11/7/18057226/house-midterm-results-iowa-4th-jd-scholten-winner
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1060050922066399232

    Isn't that meaningless given the different populations of the states? And it also ignores the fact the Dems won more senate seats tonight by quite a margin.
    It's irrelevant because only two thirds of states had senate elections
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Casino_Royale said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1060050922066399232

    The Senate is designed to represent all states equally at a national level, not proportionately represent the national vote.

    There is a much better argument that the House should, however.
    The House is 435 separate elections,
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751
    DavidL said:

    It looks like the Republicans are going to do even better in the Senate than forecast. The Dems will be particularly disappointed to lose Florida. That does not bode well for 2020.

    But the franchise reform in Florida has gone through, allowing former felons to vote. That will tip the state back to the Democrats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1060050922066399232

    Isn't that meaningless given the different populations of the states? And it also ignores the fact the Dems won more senate seats tonight by quite a margin.
    It's irrelevant because only two thirds of states had senate elections
    That apparently needs to be explained to that policy analyst :p
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Tim_B said:

    Looks like a recount in WI race. 635 vote difference.

    Source? Looks like a thumping Democrat win to me.

    Or did you mean MI?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    david_herdson said:

    DavidL said:

    It looks like the Republicans are going to do even better in the Senate than forecast. The Dems will be particularly disappointed to lose Florida. That does not bode well for 2020.

    But the franchise reform in Florida has gone through, allowing former felons to vote. That will tip the state back to the Democrats.
    Its hard to argue its not trending Republican right now. Sitting Dem senator defeated, Republican Governor reelected, voted for Trump etc. How many ex felons are going to vote?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Abrams (GA) has given a speech saying she won't concede until all the absentee ballots have been counted. That is her right. She's 115k votes behind though, so it's unlikely to make much difference.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    DavidL said:

    david_herdson said:

    DavidL said:

    It looks like the Republicans are going to do even better in the Senate than forecast. The Dems will be particularly disappointed to lose Florida. That does not bode well for 2020.

    But the franchise reform in Florida has gone through, allowing former felons to vote. That will tip the state back to the Democrats.
    Its hard to argue its not trending Republican right now. Sitting Dem senator defeated, Republican Governor reelected, voted for Trump etc. How many ex felons are going to vote?
    Against that it seems Texas might be trending the other way faster than was previously thought.
This discussion has been closed.