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Lesley Laird's price is higher than her majority of 259. She is the Amber Rudd of SLAB.
Did I read that right? That's no way to talk about a Lady.
In even more shocking news the latest poll out in Florida has the Republican Rick Scott ahead in the Senate race - its by StPetes Polls who are a division of Fextel apparently.
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_GovSenAg_November02_S8UG.pdf
Much drama to come overnight on Tuesday!
We also know from the polling that Labour membership remains very very europhile and that's before an influx of grief stricken remainers signing up to vote in an attempt to recapture a major party as will surely happen.
The dynamic at the moment points to the most europhile female that Corbynistas can tolerate. Or Clive Lewis. Given the revolutionary air at the moment I would expect more backbenchers/junior figures to contest the election on the Corbyn model. That also has the advantage of folk not having been tied to front bench contortions during the WA ratification process.
The other potential issue is the increasingly apocalyptic environmental news. More or less every day now we gets reports straight out of dystopian sci fi. A radical candidate could also draw in the kind of sign up surge that Corbyn generated.
To oversimplify slightly who is Labour's Jacinda Adern ? Who haven't we currently heard of that will look fresh, new, authentic, green and europhile in a few years time ?
If Dura_Ace is right that the next leader will be female, then we can lay all the male candidates. We can combine this with Alastair Meeks' header, and lay all of the men under a certain price. Even if a man does become leader, then limited harm is done to our account balance because all the other men we have laid will have failed to become leader, so we may well have won more on them than we lost on the eventual winner. It is also possible that natural fluctuation will have meant we can hedge as the final stage approaches.
Success does rest on not shorting the favourite when the clock stops.
Labour have had two female leaders, for a total of three tenures - Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman (twice).
*pedant hat OFF*
As for Yvette Cooper, who remembers HIPs?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/04/labour-mps-dont-flirt-with-the-lesser-evil-brexit-deal
I suspect it stems from the slightly different ways these concepts arose - Labour originally had no 'leader.' Instead until 1922 they elected a chairman and deputy chairman for a one-year term, then turfed them out and picked someone else. You still have a remnant of this in the concept of notional annual elections (which the Tories mimicked from 1965 to 1997). So the deputy leader is finishing off that term and there's no point in bringing forward the election.
Whereas the Liberals first brought in the concept of acting leader over Jeremy Thorpe's, ummm, problems. Jo Grimond served as leader at the request of the other MPs, but it was understood to be a temporary arrangement so he was called 'acting leader.'
It's interesting as well that there is no concept at all of acting leader or deputy leader in the Conservative party, and even a defenestrated leader (IDS, Heath) has to continue in office until a replacement is elected. Heath got round that by nominating Robert Carr as temporary leader but I sometimes wonder what would happen if the leader died (which hasn't happened since 1881 despite some near squeaks in 1902, 1923 and 1940).
...... I have never been a lady, and it will take a great deal more than being married to a knight of the realm to make me one.
http://bit.ly/2D0P5kP
If that happens we really will know that Labour have a collective death wish.
Edit - perhaps Cat Smith? She's not bright or personable but she is very left wing and not so transparently misogynistic as Pidcock.
I am probably not going to act on this. I have other things to do. But I think it's the Tories that will be the Europhile target.
I wouldn't say a female is nailed on, but merely likely. Other factors will come into play. The Tories keenness for another female leader hasn't exactly been a triumph.
I've taken up most of these tips, including Emily Thornberry who looks far too short to me.
That is what Labour needs. To be able to say clearly and without fear of contradiction that their leader was elected because they were the best candidate.
The snag is that while that holds good for Beckett and Abbott who were clearly inferior to Blair and the Miliband/Balls slate, it's hard to make a case that Yvette Cooper was a worse candidate than Burnham or Corbyn - yet she still came third behind both.
That is where allegations of sexism gain credence.
He was still red faced and very sweaty on strictly, though.
The challenge for Labour is whether to pick someone with character to sweep away Mrs M, or someone reliable to get rid of whatever lunatic the Tories might meanwhile have put in her place.
I wouldn't put all my eggs into one basket that the next leader must be a woman, just because it would be extremely embarrassing for it not to be.
Please don't read any double entendres into that one too.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-deal/brexit-agreement-will-include-uk-customs-deal-to-avoid-irish-backstop-sunday-times-idUKKCN1N80NS
Home tweet home: A heartwarming story that turned out to be true
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-46073249
Mr. Ace, a sound point on Balls.
If Labour don't elect a female leader until 2117 we'll know they have a real problem!
Edit - Labour has also of course never had a gay leader, but then officially neither have the Tories. That leaves the Liberals out in front, but unfortunately not in a good way under the particular circumstances...
'Babies are a reliable source of protein and extremely tender eaten in the right way,' said a fireplace salesman turned Cabinet Minister. 'I've been eating them now for 20 years and I can honestly say there's nothing to beat it.'
However, he rejected notions that this was a last desperate plot to ensure there are no food shortages. 'Look, I'm a good Tory. I don't give a flying fuck if the plebs starve. Indeed, it would solve the national obesity crisis and relieve pressure on the NHS and the pensions system if people just stopped eating. This is about getting rid of all that holier than thou shit from the Labour Party, Greens, Corbynistas and other scum.'
Jeremy Corbyn couldn't be reached for comment. When asked if he had ever eaten babies his spokesman said off the record that he was possibly there, but he wasn't involved.
Vince Cable said, 'What's a baby? Is it something to do with banks?'
(With apologies to the Daily Mash.)
The reason Yvette did poorly in that campaign, and Burnham only a little better was nothing to do with sexism. I don't recall any sexist comments at all in that campaign. The fatal flaw was being continuity New Labour when the party wanted to change.
There is certainly potential for a new shift in direction, but it will be a new generation, as indeed it was under Blair, whose first cabinet contained only one person who was in a previous Labour government.
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1058844047635349509
You don’t go on holiday while the campaign is rolling if you want the job.
(I'm told that claim's an urban myth, he was just campaigning somewhere a long way off and quite pretty. Is that true?)
Her ME may be the bigger problem, though. The Wiki entry suggests she had it (chronic fatigue syndrome, same thing, different name) for just one year. So maybe it wouldn't be a problem. Question mark, though.
I expect during the Euro referendum Corby was campaigning on returning the South Wales coalfields to full employment.
Labour established the office of leader of the party at the same time, ironically, and have had 23 leaders of whom the twelfth and fifteenth/seventeenth have been women, but only in a temporary role.
That does suggest they are lagging somewhat. It is doubly peculiar given they have, without checking, had far more female MPs and ministers than the Tories.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/03/kara-eastman-nebraska-democrats-2018-elections-222185
I later learn she was in a band at the time, the name of which – Pieces of Fuck – suggests she didn’t foresee a future in elected politics....
And Good Morning, everyone.
Looking at the numbers, the UK is well ahead of our targets for eg GHG reduction.
Ony two sectors of the economy have done noticeably poorly in reductions - transport and housing. The only real caveat here is exported emissions from eg outsourcing.
https://twitter.com/burgersb/status/979357336207855618
There is an interesting discussion thread. The numbers in the graph are sourced from the 2017 Govt stats.
Transport will be heavily influenced by Electrics. Housing requires Owner Occupiers in old stock to get off their bottoms. I think we need a significant rise in energy prices, which would happen a few years were it all to be nationalised again.
The best performing largish country GHG reduction programmes in Europe are the UK and the Netherlands.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=helicopter
We've always been at war with Eastasia, incidentally.
Emily,Angela and Rebecca are all ahead of her.
In a surprise move from the man who bankrolled the leave campaign, Banks said he would vote remain if he was given another chance because politicians are “not up to the job”.
He said: “I think if I had my time again, I would vote for remain based on the fact that our politicians are just not up for the job. We have ended up in the situation where the Tories have completely caved Brexit.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/sexting-minister-andrew-griffiths-i-was-having-breakdown-gvv7v3xgn
Seb Corbyn, the son of the Labour leader, has been dragged into a bitter power struggle between the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, and his father’s office, which erupted last week in acrimony over Labour’s response to the budget.
Sources say Jeremy Corbyn is hurt that his son’s role for McDonnell has been downgraded from chief of staff after an influx of hard-left advisers into the shadow chancellor’s team.
McDonnell sparked anger among Corbyn’s team last week by stating publicly that Labour would not oppose the government’s plans to raise income tax thresholds in the budget.
That line was contradicted by Corbyn’s spokesman and by tweets emanating from the Labour press office. Shadow cabinet members openly questioned why Labour was supporting a tax cut for those earning more than £50,000.
The incident revealed tensions between McDonnell, who is determined to do what it takes to win the next election, and some around Corbyn, who have prioritised ideological purity.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/seb-corbyn-demoted-as-dad-feuds-with-john-mcdonnell-7nldkwz50
According to the latest official stats Q2 2017 to Q2 2018 was +3.4% for domestic energy, and electricity was about +5%.
• The price paid for all domestic fuels in real terms has risen by 3.4 per cent in the year to
Q2 2018. Between Q2 2017 and Q2 2018, real terms prices including VAT for domestic
electricity increased by 4.8 per cent and domestic gas prices rose slightly by 0.3 per cent.
• The average standard electricity bill in 2017, across all payment types has increased by
£33 (5.7 per cent) since 2017, from £586 to £619. However, the average 2017 gas bill
across all payment types has decreased by £20 (3.1 per cent), from £650 to £630. These
bills are based on standard consumptions of 3,800kWh per year for electricity and
15,000kWh per year for gas.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/743709/QEP_Q2_2018.pdf
"This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Labour Party leader after Jeremy Corbyn, as chosen by a Labour Party leadership contest"
Edit - in fact, I do know, they went up at the start of July so just missed the cutoff for that report.
* The membership is around 40% firm left, 20% firm centrist and 40% "left but want to win". The NEC elections fairly represent the balance - Momentum won, but not by a huge margin, and the runner-up was not a centrist but Eddie Izzard. Someone charismatic who isn't a strong Corbynite but who isn't aggressively centrist would have a decent chance.
* The membership is pro-EU but (as with Labour voters in general) it's not the driving factor for many. That's why people aren't defecting to the LibDems.
* Most members still subscribe to the old "gender is irrelevant, select on best policies" idea. Other things being equal, they'll pick a woman, but it's never going to be decisive (if I felt like that I've have voted for Thatcher, as one strongly feminist colleague says).
* Nobody is really trying for the favourite slot at the moment. The consensus is that the Corbyn experiment needs to play out, probably in 2022. If he wins, fine - nearly all members have made their peace with that idea, and the doubts that are still around are mostly the "hey, why aren't we 10% ahead?" type. If he loses, members will be up for a somewhat different approach, so long as it isn't someone who's been a trouble-maker. Jess Phillips, Stella Creasy, Sue Hayman (underrated IMO)? Maybe. But in 2022 I'd think Sadiq Khan would be hard to stop if he wanted it. He could get a safe London seat in a heartbeat. A winner, still very popular despite grumbles, backed by the left when elected but neither a Jeremy clone nor someone who undermines him.
I thought it was rather insensitive of Sophy Ridge to tell her live on air. I’m increasingly concerned about the way we publicise bereavement and grief in this country.