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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Never mind the House, watch the governors’ races for 2020
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Never mind the House, watch the governors’ races for 2020
Notoriously, Hillary Clinton never paid a campaign visit to Wisconsin in the five months between securing the Democratic nomination on 7 June 2016 and polling day, before losing the Badger State by less than 23,000 votes out of nearly three million cast. There is an element of mythology about Clinton’s Rust Belt absence. In truth, Trump didn’t spend any days there in the final month before polling day either – though he did devote five days campaigning earlier on – and he gave only slightly more in-person attention to Pennsylvania and Michigan too.
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Plonker:
The hearing was suspended last Friday after Mr Assange complained the Spanish translator only understood English, and was not fluent in Australian.
https://news.sky.com/story/ecuador-throws-out-wikileaks-founder-julian-assanges-mistreatment-claim-11540082
Matthew Parris
It’s not prejudice and phobia that hamper good policing but low-calibre officers who are happy to settle for mediocrity"
(£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/our-police-are-institutionally-incompetent-lvxwbzvj7
Was a time that was satire.
http://www.twitter.com/EricHolder/status/1056699842058182656
I wonder whether Trump has the patience to keep fighting against a Dem House. Bullies like easy targets and I wonder whether he’d reach a point where he’d just sulk.
Or it could turn him full time onto foreign affairs, which would be umm, suboptimal...
One does wonder sometimes whether the US can really be described as a democracy.
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/414654-orourke-avenatti-does-not-represent-most-democrats
Mr. 1000, dickishness, like ingenuity, has no upper limit. As they say, foolproof plans frequently underestimate the creativity of fools.
I see North Dakota have found even more ways to disenfranchised Native Americans.
The US is clearly a democracy in a way that Russia is not. Democracy is about dissent, not voting.
That's a very naive statement.
The trouble with what's happening in the US is that local majorities are using the power to entrench their position.
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1054752092580130821?s=21
I disagree, although the ways of doing it vary from country to country.
Individual voter registration is an attempt to suppress the votes of individuals living in multi-occupancy dwellings, who tend to be younger, poorer and more mobile - the demographic that tends to vote Labour.
The exclusion of certain suburban areas from the metropolitan counties when local authority boundaries were re-drawn in 1974, and subsequent boundary re-configurations to create unitary authorities, were done with an eye on the likely electoral consequences of these changes.
A local example that I am familiar with was the creation in 1974 of the Borough of Trafford, so as to establish a probable Tory-held authority within Greater Manchester, although after many years, the Tories lost control last May. The alternative more logical re-configuration using the River Mersey as the boundary, with a Borough of Wythenshawe (incorporating Sale and Altrincham), and the City of Manchester incorporating Stretford and Urmston but losing Wythenshawe, was not contemplated by the Heath government, as both such authorities would have been guaranteed to be perpetually Labour-controlled.
Widespread gerrymandering is a feature of politics in the 6 counties. Even in the last few months, the DUP has been successful in pressuring the Boundaries Commission to re-draw the initial draft Westminster constituency boundaries as they were perceived as harming the DUP.
https://twitter.com/nytpolitics/status/1058489197823250432?s=19
What concerns me somewhat is the proposal to leave medicine outside the cap. Yes, it's one that leads to high pay, but against that (1) we're short of doctors and (2) it's a very long course, so leads to huge debts anyway.
I would have said there's a strong case for offering to wipe the fees of anyone who works exclusively for the NHS for ten years after graduation, but there may be other objections to that (I am sure Foxy will put me right if there are).
All governing parties become unpopular, and the renewal opportunities provided by a spell in opposition are necessary for parties & democracy.
So, the Heath Govt created a Council (Trafford) that can change hands rather than one "perpetually Labour controlled". Well done Heath !!!
Look westwards to Wales for a truly gerrymandered country where the Government never loses power even with ~ 30 per cent of the vote. That is what a gerrymander looks like.
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1058516367115202560?s=19
The UK (a "Full Democracy") ranks 14th, just behind Germany (13) and ahead of all the other large EU states; Spain (19), France (29 - "Flawed"). Many smaller EU states do (a lot) better: Sweden (3), Denmark (5), Ireland (6), and some substantially worse: Belgium (32), Greece (38), Hungary (56), Romania (64).
https://pages.eiu.com/rs/753-RIQ-438/images/Democracy_Index_2017.pdf
If the latter, we need to abolish all business and economics courses at once given the huge losses they've caused...
We are racking up vast student debt that will wind up being written off. A bit like PFI, and the longer we leave it the more painful it will be to sort out.
Oxford University has to pay for Blair's folly in the Iraq War and Edinburgh for Brown's excesses.
(Aberystwyth is lucky in that Neil Hamilton has not been let near the levers of power).
Edit - you're forgetting Brexit, btw. Cameron, Osborne, May, Hammond and Boris...
Or perhaps you are, once again, talking out of your arse.
If there is one thing that people working in business, finance and public life generally ought to be taught it is economic history: 3 years on why and how economic booms and busts happen and why you should never assume that you are immune from complacency and hubris would be money well spent.
Party Tenure
Conservative 1973–1986, 1988–1995, 2004–2018 (34 years)
No overall control 1986–1988, 1995–1996, 2003–2004, 2018–present (4 years)
Labour 1996–2003 (7 years)
I agree with your comment regarding Wales - I lived there for 21 years and the demographic dominance of the South Wales valleys makes it very difficult for any party other than Labour to be dislodged from control of the Senedd. PC challenge intermittently there, particularly in the Rhondda and Caerphilly, but are handicapped by the perception that their agenda is linked to the promotion of Yr Iaith, which can antagonise monoglot English-speakers.
And, of course, even this is predicated on the SLC being able to collect the money that is repaid in an efficient and timeline manner, something their exceptionally useless Head of Repayments has failed to do for the small matter of the twenty-six years he has been in post.
https://twitter.com/steveythunder/status/1058451458184617985
Voting and debate aren't alternatives
I do take the, admittedly old-fashioned, view that being well-educated is a good thing in itself, regardless of what salary it leads to. And that this is something which all of us should pay for because it benefits all of us to have people around us, whatever they do, who are well-educated and who have the ability to keep on learning during their lives, for their own and for others’ benefit.
The Tories are running another pilot for teachers in certain subjects, in some LAs.
It beggars belief that they are not doing the same for the NHS. The scrapping of the nursing bursary has had an immediate and massive negative impact on applications.
And a voting system where you can become a majority government with 40% of the vote.
They must set a low bar.
Labour (or rather Blair's Government) are responsible for the voting system which amplifies Labour dominance by gerrymander.
The Tories, Plaid Cymru and the LibDems have also all failed Welsh voters in different ways.
Trafford looks as though it has been well-served by Heath's choice in the sense that there has been change of party (though I accept that Trafford is probably drifting leftwards by demographic change, and so this makes Heaths' decision look better in retrospect).
The system needs returning to before New Labour got their hands on it.
This is a theme we often cover:
A deepening divide between the people and the experts
The reaction to the populist insurgency has revealed the prevalence of prejudices about the average voter in some political, academic and media circles. In his book The Retreat of Western Liberalism, Edward Luce observed that “oikophobia is real” and that “the elites have become progressively more sceptical of democracy since the fall of the Berlin Wall”.
Some blamed popular ignorance and xenophobia for the Brexit and Trump results and argued that those who voted for them were political illiterates who had been duped by “post-truth politics” or worse, bigots with xenophobic views. In this way, some opponents of Brexit and Trump have presented voters (and supporters of populist parties in general) as the threat to democracy today. The popular reaction to an economic and political system which many voters feel has left them behind is presented as the cause of democracy’s ailments rather than a consequence of them.
According to Luce (2017), the crux of the West’s democratic crisis is that “our societies are split between the will of the people and the rule of the experts—the tyranny of the majority versus the club of self-serving insiders; Britain versus Brussels; West Virginia versus Washington. It follows that the election of Trump and Britain’s exit from the EU are a reassertion of the popular will.” The split that Luce observes is one of deepening polarisation between the political class and alienated voters in the West. This has been the most striking trend in the Western democracies in 2017.
Needless to say, in GOP supporting areas polling stations are plentiful.
It didn't just happen -- someone actively chose to construct a different electoral system in Wales as opposed to Scotland or N. Ireland.
They chose it for naked political considerations.
I'll get my coat...
Whatever the demerits of FPTP (& there are many), the UK government does get changed.
Whatever the failings of democracy in the US (& there are many), the US Presidency and the House and the Senate does get changed.
That doesn't happen in Wales.
(Also, it is not just the Conservatives who are enthusiastic about FPTP. Nick Palmer is a delightful exception, but most Labour MPs support FPTP as well. Come to South Wales and meet them.)
For example, South Africa under apartheid was not ferociously oppressive in terms of freedom of speech. You could stand in Soweto and say "This system is horrible, our government is corrupt and oppressive" and nobody would lock you up. But you couldn't vote to change it. That wasn't a functioning democracy, and in the end insurrection seemed to be the only option open to people who wanted one.
Currently reading 100 Great Kings, Queens and Rulers of the World. Onto Darius the Great. Just begun the anecdote about him becoming king because his horse was the first to neigh after sunrise.
#alternativesystemsofelection
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-truth-is-that-brexit-is-happening-whether-we-like-it-or-not
Why is Belgium so low?
And the legal entitlement to time off work to vote is two hours.
Does it make voting impossible - of course not. But it is indefensible.
“a democracy has every right to restrict the franchise however it wishes...”
Hogwash is unduly polite.
Especially from malcolm
Have a good morning.
Christian Chinese friends, living in Britain and not pro-regime, say that in fact it's perfectly possible in China to be highly critical of the regime in everyday conversation, though they'll be discreet with foreigners. What gets you into trouble is trying to organise a critical group. The Chinese government seems to feel that pretty open discussion of policy is a good thing, so long as you don't try to change the government.
It's clearly better than a system where any criticism of anything gets you locked up. But it does mean that ultimately state policy is rooted in the preservation of power at all costs. Anyone who has been in politics is familiar with the insidious temptation - "Yes, we're out of ideas and pretty crap, but we mustn't let the other side win". But ultimately democracy partly means accepting that you should sometimes lose.
Thankfully, in 2016, that changed.
This from a lad who started work on cold freezing building sites.
These things do need to be budgeted and paid for and I don’t think it unreasonable to except undergraduates choosing their courses at tertiary level to make a contribution. It otherwise gets very expensive and there are all sorts of other heavy demands on the public purse.
I do think the current levels of fees are politically unsustainable, but not all fees.
The US by contrast doesn't score particularly poorly in any one area - just broadly a bit worse in many areas.
Remember how crucial Jeb Bush as Florida Governor was to his brother winning the state, the Electoral College and the Presidency in 2000. After Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Florida is the most marginal Trump state from 2016
An anecdote of my own - I was in Northern California last year, staying with a friend. She was lobbying to set up a Parks and Recreation department in the small town were she was. To do that, they had to spend months organising a citizens' group, then get an initiative on the ballot. I attended one of the town hall meetings out of curiosity. With the exception of Switzerland, I really can't think of anywhere else that comes close to that level of participation in the democratic process.
It's not a simple picture.
Essentially the abolition of bursaries meant more places could be funded. There was then (and in my understanding there still is) a massive over subscription for nursing places.
I think bursaries are not necessary but I also think that there is great merit in writing off the debts of those graduates, both nurses and doctors, who "pay back" by working for the NHS for a qualifying period.
Thank you.
Without that, a democratic system can fracture.
The latte-sipping Guardianista is anyway a bit of a myth outside university areas. In deepest Surrey where I now live, I wouldn't describe a single one of the local Labour people (about 600 in my CLP) in those terms, except maybe me. Most are neither intellectual nor traditional working class - they're people who are getting by as best they can who feel society ought to be more equal.