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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pound rises on the FOREX markets after the BrexSec reports that a deal maybe only three weeks away

Brexit secretary confirms deal expected by mid-November https://t.co/Xo4xGOB5SG

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Hurrah.

TheScreamingEagles

Shows how incompetent David Davis is that Raab can sort out a deal in a few months whilst Davis couldn’t in two years.

OldKingCole

Norman Northern Ireland?


I see. Thanks.

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

Shows how incompetent David Davis is that Raab can sort out a deal in a few months whilst Davis couldn’t in two years.

Absolutely. Davis and Boris were hopeless but they had their chance and blew it

SouthamObserver

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1057674292702396416

TheScreamingEagles

FPT

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

I've often said that if we don't get May's deal, then the alternative is no-deal by default, or no Brexit.

Part of me wants No Deal just so it’ll destroy the British Eurosceptic movement forever.

Short term pain for long term gain.

It's already been destroyed.

Just as the Anti-Corn Law League was destroyed in 1846, and for the same reason.

Nah, Brexiteers are like Carthage after the Battle of Cannae.

They may have been lucky in winning a battle but all they’ve done is rouse their opponents into giving them a shellacking.

Think Zama meets Kleidion.

AlastairMeeks

We've been here before. I'm expecting a deal to be done. I'm also expecting a few more turns of the screw first.

Pulpstar

AlastairMeeks said:

We've been here before. I'm expecting a deal to be done. I'm also expecting a few more turns of the screw first.

Hello !

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1057674292702396416

SouthamObserver

AlastairMeeks said:

We've been here before. I'm expecting a deal to be done. I'm also expecting a few more turns of the screw first.

I expect a deal to be done, too. The alternative is too bleak for all but the most swivel-eyed and insulated of the Buccaneers. But getting to one involves finding a form of words that can be spun domestically by the government as not being a total capitulation. That is surely going to take a while longer yet.

Anorak

AlastairMeeks said:

We've been here before. I'm expecting a deal to be done. I'm also expecting a few more turns of the screw first.

Yep. Also could be seen as a set-up to "we were totally being reasonable and were totally ready to deal, but then that mean M. Barnier double-crossed us. Boooo!" etc, etc.

EDIT: I see M. Barnier has outsourced the meanness and double-crossery to the Irish.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

I've often said that if we don't get May's deal, then the alternative is no-deal by default, or no Brexit.

Part of me wants No Deal just so it’ll destroy the British Eurosceptic movement forever.

Short term pain for long term gain.

It's already been destroyed.

Just as the Anti-Corn Law League was destroyed in 1846, and for the same reason.

Nah, Brexiteers are like Carthage after the Battle of Cannae.

They may have been lucky in winning a battle but all they’ve done is rouse their opponents into giving them a shellacking.

Think Zama meets Kleidion.

Meets Wolf 359?

OneArmedBadger

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1057669902746697728

The speed with which this ferret was reversed is impressive. Suggests very little optimism that any deal will be done in Nov, which hopefully means that the CJEU will have delivered the judgement on Article 50 revocation by the time the bunfight about amendments gets serious.

Pulpstar

OneArmedBadger said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1057669902746697728

The speed with which this ferret was reversed is impressive. Suggests very little optimism that any deal will be done in Nov, which hopefully means that the CJEU will have delivered the judgement on Article 50 revocation by the time the bunfight about amendments gets serious.

Oh dear oh dear.

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

I've often said that if we don't get May's deal, then the alternative is no-deal by default, or no Brexit.

Part of me wants No Deal just so it’ll destroy the British Eurosceptic movement forever.

Short term pain for long term gain.

It's already been destroyed.

Just as the Anti-Corn Law League was destroyed in 1846, and for the same reason.

Nah, Brexiteers are like Carthage after the Battle of Cannae.

They may have been lucky in winning a battle but all they’ve done is rouse their opponents into giving them a shellacking.

Think Zama meets Kleidion.

Meets Wolf 359?

Meets Solo: A Star Wars Story.

TheScreamingEagles

OneArmedBadger said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1057669902746697728

The speed with which this ferret was reversed is impressive. Suggests very little optimism that any deal will be done in Nov, which hopefully means that the CJEU will have delivered the judgement on Article 50 revocation by the time the bunfight about amendments gets serious.

Brexiteers are so incompetent they couldn’t organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

AlastairMeeks

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1057681595379957761

OneArmedBadger

TheScreamingEagles said:

OneArmedBadger said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1057669902746697728

The speed with which this ferret was reversed is impressive. Suggests very little optimism that any deal will be done in Nov, which hopefully means that the CJEU will have delivered the judgement on Article 50 revocation by the time the bunfight about amendments gets serious.

Brexiteers are so incompetent they couldn’t organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

To a Brexiteer, telling silly lies to Hilary Benn and the Brexit committee is all in the game, yo. It's not a matter of incompetence.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

OneArmedBadger said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1057669902746697728

The speed with which this ferret was reversed is impressive. Suggests very little optimism that any deal will be done in Nov, which hopefully means that the CJEU will have delivered the judgement on Article 50 revocation by the time the bunfight about amendments gets serious.

Brexiteers are so incompetent they couldn’t organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

This November 21st date, when it passes with no further progress made is could hurt market confidence in the Gov't.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OneArmedBadger said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1057669902746697728

The speed with which this ferret was reversed is impressive. Suggests very little optimism that any deal will be done in Nov, which hopefully means that the CJEU will have delivered the judgement on Article 50 revocation by the time the bunfight about amendments gets serious.

Brexiteers are so incompetent they couldn’t organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

This November 21st date, when it passes with no further progress made is could hurt market confidence in the Gov't.

Is Dominic Raab a pound shop Elon Musk?

Pulpstar

OneArmedBadger said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OneArmedBadger said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1057669902746697728

The speed with which this ferret was reversed is impressive. Suggests very little optimism that any deal will be done in Nov, which hopefully means that the CJEU will have delivered the judgement on Article 50 revocation by the time the bunfight about amendments gets serious.

Brexiteers are so incompetent they couldn’t organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

To a Brexiteer, telling silly lies to Hilary Benn and the Brexit committee is all in the game, yo. It's not a matter of incompetence.

Perhaps Raab can pass the little lies off as rumours ?

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

I've often said that if we don't get May's deal, then the alternative is no-deal by default, or no Brexit.

Part of me wants No Deal just so it’ll destroy the British Eurosceptic movement forever.

Short term pain for long term gain.

It's already been destroyed.

Just as the Anti-Corn Law League was destroyed in 1846, and for the same reason.

Nah, Brexiteers are like Carthage after the Battle of Cannae.

They may have been lucky in winning a battle but all they’ve done is rouse their opponents into giving them a shellacking.

Think Zama meets Kleidion.

Meets Wolf 359?

Meets Solo: A Star Wars Story.

Could be worse, at least it's not The Last Jedi.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OneArmedBadger said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1057669902746697728

The speed with which this ferret was reversed is impressive. Suggests very little optimism that any deal will be done in Nov, which hopefully means that the CJEU will have delivered the judgement on Article 50 revocation by the time the bunfight about amendments gets serious.

Brexiteers are so incompetent they couldn’t organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

This November 21st date, when it passes with no further progress made is could hurt market confidence in the Gov't.

Is Dominic Raab a pound shop Elon Musk?

Nah, he's not electrifying enough.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OneArmedBadger said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1057669902746697728

The speed with which this ferret was reversed is impressive. Suggests very little optimism that any deal will be done in Nov, which hopefully means that the CJEU will have delivered the judgement on Article 50 revocation by the time the bunfight about amendments gets serious.

Brexiteers are so incompetent they couldn’t organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

This November 21st date, when it passes with no further progress made is could hurt market confidence in the Gov't.

Is Dominic Raab a pound shop Elon Musk?

Don't think so - Musk has put a car into space this year. What's Raab done ?

Pulpstar

Perhaps Raab explaining the Brexit strategy to Joe Rogan might be worth a pop at this point.

Richard_Nabavi

*** Betting Post (remember those? ***

I might come to regret this, but I've taken a big punt on the turnout spreads in SPIN's state turnout markets being too high.

I realise that turnout is expected to be higher than normal for mid-term elections, but comparing the spreads with 538's model and the derisory turnout four years ago in a number of states, the uplift looks too big - especially in the southern states where many people just don't vote.

Take TX for example. OK, it's a high-profile and hotly-contested election this time, but the spread at 47-49 compares with 39.4% estimated in the 538 model and 28.5% four years ago. That's quite a difference.

Or take a lower-profile contest like Mississippi Wicker vs Baria: 29.7% last time, 38.9% 538, compared with SPIN's price of 44-46.

DYOR, I might lose my shirt and so might you, spreads are dangerous etc etc,

2014 turnouts here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/opinion/the-worst-voter-turnout-in-72-years.html

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

*** Betting Post (remember those? ***

I might come to regret this, but I've taken a big punt on the turnout spreads in SPIN's state turnout markets being too high.

I realise that turnout is expected to be higher than normal for mid-term elections, but comparing the spreads with 538's model and the derisory turnout four years ago in a number of states, the uplift looks too big - especially in the southern states where many people just don't vote.

Take TX for example. OK, it's a high-profile and hotly-contested election this time, but the spread at 47-49 compares with 39.4% estimated in the 538 model and 28.5% four years ago. That's quite a difference.

Or take a lower-profile contest like Mississippi Wicker vs Baria: 29.7% last time, 38.9% 538, compared with SPIN's price of 44-46.

DYOR, I might lose my shirt and so might you, spreads are dangerous etc etc,

2014 turnouts here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/opinion/the-worst-voter-turnout-in-72-years.html

Thanks for the research Richard, have sold MS at £15 and TX at £10 a point..

MikeSmithson

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

*** Betting Post (remember those? ***

I might come to regret this, but I've taken a big punt on the turnout spreads in SPIN's state turnout markets being too high.

I realise that turnout is expected to be higher than normal for mid-term elections, but comparing the spreads with 538's model and the derisory turnout four years ago in a number of states, the uplift looks too big - especially in the southern states where many people just don't vote.

Take TX for example. OK, it's a high-profile and hotly-contested election this time, but the spread at 47-49 compares with 39.4% estimated in the 538 model and 28.5% four years ago. That's quite a difference.

Or take a lower-profile contest like Mississippi Wicker vs Baria: 29.7% last time, 38.9% 538, compared with SPIN's price of 44-46.

DYOR, I might lose my shirt and so might you, spreads are dangerous etc etc,

2014 turnouts here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/opinion/the-worst-voter-turnout-in-72-years.html

Thanks for the research Richard, have sold MS at £15 and TX at £10 a point..

I've bought overall turnout at 43.5% with SPIN.

ydoethur

Richard_Nabavi said:

*** Betting Post (remember those? ***

I might come to regret this, but I've taken a big punt on the turnout spreads in SPIN's state turnout markets being too high.

I realise that turnout is expected to be higher than normal for mid-term elections, but comparing the spreads with 538's model and the derisory turnout four years ago in a number of states, the uplift looks too big - especially in the southern states where many people just don't vote.

Take TX for example. OK, it's a high-profile and hotly-contested election this time, but the spread at 47-49 compares with 39.4% estimated in the 538 model and 28.5% four years ago. That's quite a difference.

Or take a lower-profile contest like Mississippi Wicker vs Baria: 29.7% last time, 38.9% 538, compared with SPIN's price of 44-46.

DYOR, I might lose my shirt and so might you, spreads are dangerous etc etc,

2014 turnouts here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/opinion/the-worst-voter-turnout-in-72-years.html

I simply cannot see the Democrats taking Texas. No Democrat has won a senatorial race there since 1988, and no new (as opposed to incumbent) Democratic senator has won there since 1971. It may be gradually trending back towards them, like Virginia, but I think we have a fair way to go before they retake it.

If they do take it, great, because apart from anything else it's a very important state in the electoral college. It just seems very unlikely.

Fenman

ydoethur said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

*** Betting Post (remember those? ***

I might come to regret this, but I've taken a big punt on the turnout spreads in SPIN's state turnout markets being too high.

I realise that turnout is expected to be higher than normal for mid-term elections, but comparing the spreads with 538's model and the derisory turnout four years ago in a number of states, the uplift looks too big - especially in the southern states where many people just don't vote.

Take TX for example. OK, it's a high-profile and hotly-contested election this time, but the spread at 47-49 compares with 39.4% estimated in the 538 model and 28.5% four years ago. That's quite a difference.

Or take a lower-profile contest like Mississippi Wicker vs Baria: 29.7% last time, 38.9% 538, compared with SPIN's price of 44-46.

DYOR, I might lose my shirt and so might you, spreads are dangerous etc etc,

2014 turnouts here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/opinion/the-worst-voter-turnout-in-72-years.html

I simply cannot see the Democrats taking Texas. No Democrat has won a senatorial race there since 1988, and no new (as opposed to incumbent) Democratic senator has won there since 1971. It may be gradually trending back towards them, like Virginia, but I think we have a fair way to go before they retake it.

If they do take it, great, because apart from anything else it's a very important state in the electoral college. It just seems very unlikely.

Demographics say theirs will eventually but this seems four to eight years too early.

AndyJS

O/T

Technical discussion of the Indonesian plane crash.

https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/614857-indonesian-aircraft-missing-off-jakarta-15.html

Theuniondivvie

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OneArmedBadger said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1057669902746697728

The speed with which this ferret was reversed is impressive. Suggests very little optimism that any deal will be done in Nov, which hopefully means that the CJEU will have delivered the judgement on Article 50 revocation by the time the bunfight about amendments gets serious.

Brexiteers are so incompetent they couldn’t organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

This November 21st date, when it passes with no further progress made is could hurt market confidence in the Gov't.

Is Dominic Raab a pound shop Elon Musk?

Don't think so - Musk has put a car into space this year. What's Raab done ?

Raab is still a cadet when it comes to the space stuff.

Richard_Nabavi

There's a good summary of historical turnout in US elections here (including maps you can hover over to see the figures for each state in 2016, 2014, 2012):

https://www.fairvote.org/voter_turnout#voter_turnout_101

TheScreamingEagles

Always said Essex is a dump.

A United States congressional candidate has used a picture of a British seaside village to show what could happen if voters do not back President Trump.

An advert used an image of Jaywick Sands, near Clacton in Essex, to attack Nick Stella's Democrat opponent.

The campaign picture, which showed an unpaved road and rundown homes, said: "Help President Trump keep America on track and thriving."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-4604749

OblitusSumMe

Richard_Nabavi said:

*** Betting Post (remember those? ***

I might come to regret this, but I've taken a big punt on the turnout spreads in SPIN's state turnout markets being too high.
...

I don't gamble, but I do greatly appreciate the betting posts and the analysis they contain.

Richard_Nabavi

OblitusSumMe said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

*** Betting Post (remember those? ***

I might come to regret this, but I've taken a big punt on the turnout spreads in SPIN's state turnout markets being too high.
...

I don't gamble, but I do greatly appreciate the betting posts and the analysis they contain.

Thanks. (I don't gamble either, of course - I invest in the political betting markets!)

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

*** Betting Post (remember those? ***

I might come to regret this, but I've taken a big punt on the turnout spreads in SPIN's state turnout markets being too high.

I realise that turnout is expected to be higher than normal for mid-term elections, but comparing the spreads with 538's model and the derisory turnout four years ago in a number of states, the uplift looks too big - especially in the southern states where many people just don't vote.

Take TX for example. OK, it's a high-profile and hotly-contested election this time, but the spread at 47-49 compares with 39.4% estimated in the 538 model and 28.5% four years ago. That's quite a difference.

Or take a lower-profile contest like Mississippi Wicker vs Baria: 29.7% last time, 38.9% 538, compared with SPIN's price of 44-46.

DYOR, I might lose my shirt and so might you, spreads are dangerous etc etc,

2014 turnouts here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/opinion/the-worst-voter-turnout-in-72-years.html

Thanks for the research Richard, have sold MS at £15 and TX at £10 a point..

are there non-spread equivalents anywhere

TheWhiteRabbit

Richard_Nabavi said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

*** Betting Post (remember those? ***

I might come to regret this, but I've taken a big punt on the turnout spreads in SPIN's state turnout markets being too high.
...

I don't gamble, but I do greatly appreciate the betting posts and the analysis they contain.

Thanks. (I don't gamble either, of course - I invest in the political betting markets!)

Down that road be danger....!

IanB2

At $1.276 saying that the £ has risen is premature

OblitusSumMe

Some people might look at cases like these and start to worry about the rights of Irish citizens in the UK after Brexit and the trustworthiness of the British state.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/31/home-office-tells-northern-irish-woman-to-prove-right-to-live-in-belfast

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

I've often said that if we don't get May's deal, then the alternative is no-deal by default, or no Brexit.

Part of me wants No Deal just so it’ll destroy the British Eurosceptic movement forever.

Short term pain for long term gain.

It's already been destroyed.

Just as the Anti-Corn Law League was destroyed in 1846, and for the same reason.

Nah, Brexiteers are like Carthage after the Battle of Cannae.

They may have been lucky in winning a battle but all they’ve done is rouse their opponents into giving them a shellacking.

Think Zama meets Kleidion.

Meets Wolf 359?

Meets Solo: A Star Wars Story.

It'll bland them to death?

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

I've often said that if we don't get May's deal, then the alternative is no-deal by default, or no Brexit.

Part of me wants No Deal just so it’ll destroy the British Eurosceptic movement forever.

Short term pain for long term gain.

It's already been destroyed.

Just as the Anti-Corn Law League was destroyed in 1846, and for the same reason.

Nah, Brexiteers are like Carthage after the Battle of Cannae.

They may have been lucky in winning a battle but all they’ve done is rouse their opponents into giving them a shellacking.

Think Zama meets Kleidion.

Meets Wolf 359?

Meets Solo: A Star Wars Story.

It'll bland them to death?

A huge financial disaster and a huge disappointment for those waiting for it.

I'm sure there's an analogy to made about Solo and Brexit.

Richard_Nabavi

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

*** Betting Post (remember those? ***

I might come to regret this, but I've taken a big punt on the turnout spreads in SPIN's state turnout markets being too high.
...

I don't gamble, but I do greatly appreciate the betting posts and the analysis they contain.

Thanks. (I don't gamble either, of course - I invest in the political betting markets!)

Down that road be danger....!

When I started in 2008, it turned out that the bigger danger was investing in nice safe banks like RBS and Lloyds.

ydoethur

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

*** Betting Post (remember those? ***

I might come to regret this, but I've taken a big punt on the turnout spreads in SPIN's state turnout markets being too high.
...

I don't gamble, but I do greatly appreciate the betting posts and the analysis they contain.

Thanks. (I don't gamble either, of course - I invest in the political betting markets!)

Down that road be danger....!

When I started in 2008, it turned out that the bigger danger was investing in nice safe banks like RBS and Lloyds.

Lloyds would almost certainly have been fine if it hadn't tried to swallow HBOS.

RBS on the other hand was approximately as safe as walking into a meeting of Islington Labour Party and announcing you support the existence of Israel.

Nigelb

This story leaves me strangely conflicted...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-46047494

TheScreamingEagles

Nigelb said:

This story leaves me strangely conflicted...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-46047494

Me too.

Essex is a dump.

Hopefully Alastair Meeks will class up the joint.

IanB2

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

This story leaves me strangely conflicted...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-46047494

Me too.

Essex is a dump.

Hopefully Alastair Meeks will class up the joint.

Essex is a story of two halves.

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OneArmedBadger said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1057669902746697728

The speed with which this ferret was reversed is impressive. Suggests very little optimism that any deal will be done in Nov, which hopefully means that the CJEU will have delivered the judgement on Article 50 revocation by the time the bunfight about amendments gets serious.

Brexiteers are so incompetent they couldn’t organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

This November 21st date, when it passes with no further progress made is could hurt market confidence in the Gov't.

Is Dominic Raab a pound shop Elon Musk?

Nah, he's not electrifying enough.

Unsurprising, as he rhymes with the obsolete Saab.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

This story leaves me strangely conflicted...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-46047494

Me too.

Essex is a dump.

Hopefully Alastair Meeks will class up the joint.

He’s moving to Illinois ??

Pulpstar

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

This story leaves me strangely conflicted...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-46047494

Me too.

Essex is a dump.

Hopefully Alastair Meeks will class up the joint.

Essex is a story of two halves.

For sure - The Essex Suffolk border is particularly pleasent. OTOH "Grimsby" was filmed in Tilbury.

TheScreamingEagles

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

This story leaves me strangely conflicted...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-46047494

Me too.

Essex is a dump.

Hopefully Alastair Meeks will class up the joint.

He’s moving to Illinois ??

That's a punishment and a half.

Last time I went to Chicago it was soooooo cold and a lot more people would have died if the bullets hadn't frozen mid air.

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

Shows how incompetent David Davis is that Raab can sort out a deal in a few months whilst Davis couldn’t in two years.

That post hasn't exactly stood the test of time!

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1057701529015275521

TheScreamingEagles

Anyhoo time to go trick or treating.

Nigelb

One US contest to get PB pulses racing:
Can ranked-choice voting end ugly election battles? This November, Maine hopes to find out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/31/can-ranked-choice-voting-end-ugly-election-battles-this-november-maine-hopes-find-out/

MikeSmithson

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1057701529015275521

That's great. I've a Cruz margin over O'Rourke spread bet sell at 5% with SPIN. If it ends like this I make money.

IanB2

Why does the lead say that the £ is rising when it isn't?

rpjs

Nigelb said:

One US contest to get PB pulses racing:
Can ranked-choice voting end ugly election battles? This November, Maine hopes to find out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/31/can-ranked-choice-voting-end-ugly-election-battles-this-november-maine-hopes-find-out/

Isn't this A********** V*** under a different name? Perhaps TSE could run a thread about it this weekend.

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OneArmedBadger said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1057669902746697728

The speed with which this ferret was reversed is impressive. Suggests very little optimism that any deal will be done in Nov, which hopefully means that the CJEU will have delivered the judgement on Article 50 revocation by the time the bunfight about amendments gets serious.

Brexiteers are so incompetent they couldn’t organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

This November 21st date, when it passes with no further progress made is could hurt market confidence in the Gov't.

Is Dominic Raab a pound shop Elon Musk?

Nah, he's not electrifying enough.

Unsurprising, as he rhymes with the obsolete Saab.

Down to the 9000 Saabs were extremely good cars.

With the 93 and 95 they completely lost their way.

Casino_Royale

Maybe Dominic Raab just likes playing the currency markets?

Omnium

IanB2 said:

Why does the lead say that the £ is rising when it isn't?

Depends on your scale. GBP/USD rises around 50% of the time on all but the longest timeframes. The greater your timeframe the more disappointing cable (gbp/usd) looks.

We still quote these rates in the traditional way though. The question is how many of your ropey old greenbacks would you need to buy one of our nice proper pounds!?

Underpants are priced in pounds. Dollars too

TheWhiteRabbit

Some of my family come from Jaywick (they did briefly move out to 'murder mile' in Cyprus)

To be honest I'm not sure they would dispute most of what is said about it.

ydoethur

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe Dominic Raab just likes playing the currency markets?

Beats playing with himself like certain other politicians.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1057706280532492288

OblitusSumMe

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe Dominic Raab just likes playing the currency markets?

With hindsight it is cute that market traders took his letter at face value.

There may come a time when we miss such a trusting reaction.

philiph

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OneArmedBadger said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1057669902746697728

The speed with which this ferret was reversed is impressive. Suggests very little optimism that any deal will be done in Nov, which hopefully means that the CJEU will have delivered the judgement on Article 50 revocation by the time the bunfight about amendments gets serious.

Brexiteers are so incompetent they couldn’t organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

This November 21st date, when it passes with no further progress made is could hurt market confidence in the Gov't.

Is Dominic Raab a pound shop Elon Musk?

Nah, he's not electrifying enough.

Unsurprising, as he rhymes with the obsolete Saab.

Down to the 9000 Saabs were extremely good cars.

With the 93 and 95 they completely lost their way.

Oi, I still have a Saab, the 95 that they introduced just before they went bust. It isn't that bad, but as so few were made I suspect parts will soon become unavailable.

Casino_Royale

OblitusSumMe said:

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe Dominic Raab just likes playing the currency markets?

With hindsight it is cute that market traders took his letter at face value.

There may come a time when we miss such a trusting reaction.

OGH has done an accidental Marketz before.

Casino_Royale

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe Dominic Raab just likes playing the currency markets?

Beats playing with himself like certain other politicians.

Err.. Damian Green?

Omnium

OblitusSumMe said:

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe Dominic Raab just likes playing the currency markets?

With hindsight it is cute that market traders took his letter at face value.

There may come a time when we miss such a trusting reaction.

Some did, some didn't. I can tell you one thing about currency markets - they're not reacting in the way you think they are, and that applies whoever you are.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

This story leaves me strangely conflicted...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-46047494

Me too.

Essex is a dump.

Hopefully Alastair Meeks will class up the joint.

Whoa! Hang on a second! Rachel Riley is a Southend lass

Pulpstar

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1057706280532492288

ROW back indeed !
Corbyn smiles.

IanB2

Off topic.

RochdalePioneers

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1057706280532492288

A pity that I can't find online the Spitting Image sketch where they had Major's cabinet in a brewery unable to organise a pissup

Sunil_Prasannan

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OneArmedBadger said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1057669902746697728

The speed with which this ferret was reversed is impressive. Suggests very little optimism that any deal will be done in Nov, which hopefully means that the CJEU will have delivered the judgement on Article 50 revocation by the time the bunfight about amendments gets serious.

Brexiteers are so incompetent they couldn’t organise a pregnancy on a council estate.

This November 21st date, when it passes with no further progress made is could hurt market confidence in the Gov't.

Is Dominic Raab a pound shop Elon Musk?

Nah, he's not electrifying enough.

Unsurprising, as he rhymes with the obsolete Saab.

Raab (the city in Hungary) is now known as Gyor.

ydoethur

RochdalePioneers said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1057706280532492288

A pity that I can't find online the Spitting Image sketch where they had Major's cabinet in a brewery unable to organise a pissup

Just post Corbyn launching his manifesto, that'll be fine.

RochdalePioneers

Raab is just testing the government preferred option - simply declare Brexit without any actual deal or anything actually changing.

Brexit means Brexit. A Red White and Blue Brexit.
But you haven't actually left!
Yes we have. We are now free to do whatever we want. We want to be a member of the EU
But how is that Brexit?
Because Brexit means Brexit. We have left the European Union and instead become EU members

AndyJS

LDs just 2% ahead of UKIP. When's Vince going to let someone else take over?


"Europe Elects
‏ @EuropeElects

UK, YouGov poll:

CON-ECR: 41%
LAB-S&D: 39% (+3)
LDEM-ALDE: 7% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 5% (+1)
SNP/PCY-G/EFA: 4% (-2)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2% (-2)

Field work: 29/10/18 – 30/10/18
Sample size: 1,648"

kle4

AndyJS said:

LDs just 2% ahead of UKIP. When's Vince going to let someone else take over?


"Europe Elects
‏ @EuropeElects

UK, YouGov poll:

CON-ECR: 41%
LAB-S&D: 39% (+3)
LDEM-ALDE: 7% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 5% (+1)
SNP/PCY-G/EFA: 4% (-2)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2% (-2)

Field work: 29/10/18 – 30/10/18
Sample size: 1,648"

Since he seems incapable of leading perhaps they could apart some kind of party regent?

felix

IanB2 said:

Why does the lead say that the £ is rising when it isn't?

Because it was when the header was written? Duh!

AndyJS

The latest from Craig Murray:

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/10/31/ignominious-death-of-united-kingdom.html

Theuniondivvie

AndyJS said:

LDs just 2% ahead of UKIP. When's Vince going to let someone else take over?


"Europe Elects
‏ @EuropeElects

UK, YouGov poll:

CON-ECR: 41%
LAB-S&D: 39% (+3)
LDEM-ALDE: 7% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 5% (+1)
SNP/PCY-G/EFA: 4% (-2)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2% (-2)

Field work: 29/10/18 – 30/10/18
Sample size: 1,648"

CON's just 2% ahead of LAB. When's May going to let someone else take over?

Foxy

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1057706280532492288

A pity that I can't find online the Spitting Image sketch where they had Major's cabinet in a brewery unable to organise a pissup

Just post Corbyn launching his manifesto, that'll be fine.

Though it did work, he gained a good number of seats and despite the shambles, indeed because of it, he dominated the news agenda for weeks.

Perhaps there really is no such thing as bad publicity.

kle4

Theuniondivvie said:

AndyJS said:

LDs just 2% ahead of UKIP. When's Vince going to let someone else take over?


"Europe Elects
‏ @EuropeElects

UK, YouGov poll:

CON-ECR: 41%
LAB-S&D: 39% (+3)
LDEM-ALDE: 7% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 5% (+1)
SNP/PCY-G/EFA: 4% (-2)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2% (-2)

Field work: 29/10/18 – 30/10/18
Sample size: 1,648"

CON's just 2% ahead of LAB. When's May going to let someone else take over?

In the next 6 months.

TheScreamingEagles

NEW THREAD

Sunil_Prasannan

Theuniondivvie said:

AndyJS said:

LDs just 2% ahead of UKIP. When's Vince going to let someone else take over?


"Europe Elects
‏ @EuropeElects

UK, YouGov poll:

CON-ECR: 41%
LAB-S&D: 39% (+3)
LDEM-ALDE: 7% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 5% (+1)
SNP/PCY-G/EFA: 4% (-2)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2% (-2)

Field work: 29/10/18 – 30/10/18
Sample size: 1,648"

CON's just 2% ahead of LAB. When's May going to let someone else take over?

SNP drop 2%. When's Nicola going to let someone else take over?

ydoethur

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1057706280532492288

A pity that I can't find online the Spitting Image sketch where they had Major's cabinet in a brewery unable to organise a pissup

Just post Corbyn launching his manifesto, that'll be fine.

Though it did work, he gained a good number of seats and despite the shambles, indeed because of it, he dominated the news agenda for weeks.

Perhaps there really is no such thing as bad publicity.

Major won the 92 election outright!

Theuniondivvie

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

AndyJS said:

LDs just 2% ahead of UKIP. When's Vince going to let someone else take over?


"Europe Elects
‏ @EuropeElects

UK, YouGov poll:

CON-ECR: 41%
LAB-S&D: 39% (+3)
LDEM-ALDE: 7% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 5% (+1)
SNP/PCY-G/EFA: 4% (-2)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2% (-2)

Field work: 29/10/18 – 30/10/18
Sample size: 1,648"

CON's just 2% ahead of LAB. When's May going to let someone else take over?

SNP drop 2%. When's Nicola going to let someone else take over?

You think SNP/PCY = the SNP?
When are you going to let someone who knows what they're talking about take over your account?