Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
If May is ousted in a coup in the next week or 2 there could well be a snap general election before Christmas, I think enough Remainer Tory MPs like Soubry and Grieve and Wollaston may no confidence the government rather than enable PM Davis, the DUP and ERG to go to No Deal and Crash Out Brexit without a mandate from either EUref2 or a general election.
The likeliest result of that general election would be Tories largest party but Corbyn PM with SNP and LD support and Corbyn would then agree the NI backstop with the EU to get the Withdrawal Agreement and transition period by Brexit Day next March
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
The fact that May's position on the NI backstop is being openly contradicted by her Brexit Secretary is I think of great significance. As the Brexiteer now offering the most effective resistance to her failed approach, with Johnson and Davis having chosen to be sidelined, the odds of 14/1 on him succeeding her look very attractive. He appears to be daring her to sack him in the knowledge that this would trigger a challenge to her leadership, and meanwhile using her weakness to further his own claims.
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
You may be correct but isn't that in effect voting for the deal and wouldn't the backlash for doing that be enormous. In some ways even worse than voting for it. At least that would be seen as a positive action, but abstaining would be seen as very cowardly I think. They had the opportunity to do something and did nothing. Just watched the carnage while sitting on their hands.
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
On topic, an excellent piece. One possibility that we might have to face up to is that some tens of thousands of Ulster men and women may well choose to come and live in the rUK as a result of unification. Which will undoubtedly add to the gaiety of the nation.
Unfortunately, I fear that they will find the modern, tolerant, equality focused UK every bit as alien as Eire, possibly even more so. The Ulster folk are indeed caught in an unpleasant time warp of their own creation. We have done them absolutely no favours by allowing ourselves to be blackmailed by the threat of bombs and killings into paying for a quiet life.
I did laugh when reading the previous thread, Dadao suggested a light spot of ethnic cleansing to get rid of the pieds noirs, hmm are you sure I thought ?
I wonder how another 500k Rangers supporters might affect things in Scotland, since that to me wouyld be the first port of call for many of them, Cancel Indyref2 for several generations,
I remember in the 80s, particularly during the hunger strikes, that having my team playing Rangers (and Celtic to a lesser extent) was like going to the zoo. So many songs with so little to do with football. I was born under a Union Jack was one of the least offensive. I really, really don't want us to go back to that.
Have you read the Christopher Brookmyre novels set in Glasgow (The Sacred Art of Stealing or being one of the best)? They are funny and biting on the Rangers v Celtic divide.
The fact that May's position on the NI backstop is being openly contradicted by her Brexit Secretary is I think of great significance. As the Brexiteer now offering the most effective resistance to her failed approach, with Johnson and Davis having chosen to be sidelined, the odds of 14/1 on him succeeding her look very attractive. He appears to be daring her to sack him in the knowledge that this would trigger a challenge to her leadership, and meanwhile using her weakness to further his own claims.
The fact that May's position on the NI backstop is being openly contradicted by her Brexit Secretary is I think of great significance. As the Brexiteer now offering the most effective resistance to her failed approach, with Johnson and Davis having chosen to be sidelined, the odds of 14/1 on him succeeding her look very attractive. He appears to be daring her to sack him in the knowledge that this would trigger a challenge to her leadership, and meanwhile using her weakness to further his own claims.
I agree that Dominic Raab is the likliest person to follow her into Number 10. That being said, I would be very surprised if he wields the knife.
Nobody needs to wield the knife, all it requires is Brady receives 48 letters and then May loses a VNOC.
Ultimately, for Theresa to go requires two things:
1. 48 letters to go in 2. A majority of Conservatives to consider than AN Other will get the UK a better deal
No Conservative MP has put their head above the parapet and said "I want this job, and I can do it better than Theresa", except (possibly) for Boris Johnson.
Most Conservative MPs are trapped between fear of No Deal and fear of BINO. The majority of Conservative MPs are not ideological and fear of the first is stronger. What they would really like is for a large number of Labour MPs to back the deal so they could vote "No", and then say "Well, I tried, but those damn Labour and LibDem MPs defied the whip."
And so not sending the letters is the safest thing for almost all MPs. They cling to Mrs May out of fear of the electoral consequences of either Boris or No Deal.
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
The fact that May's position on the NI backstop is being openly contradicted by her Brexit Secretary is I think of great significance. As the Brexiteer now offering the most effective resistance to her failed approach, with Johnson and Davis having chosen to be sidelined, the odds of 14/1 on him succeeding her look very attractive. He appears to be daring her to sack him in the knowledge that this would trigger a challenge to her leadership, and meanwhile using her weakness to further his own claims.
Raab's threat to the EU is profoundly stupid. Either he is stupid enough to believe it himself. Or he cynically reckons his supporters are stupid enough to believe it. I incline to the second, but not entirely sure.
The fact that May's position on the NI backstop is being openly contradicted by her Brexit Secretary is I think of great significance. As the Brexiteer now offering the most effective resistance to her failed approach, with Johnson and Davis having chosen to be sidelined, the odds of 14/1 on him succeeding her look very attractive. He appears to be daring her to sack him in the knowledge that this would trigger a challenge to her leadership, and meanwhile using her weakness to further his own claims.
This clearly is significant - Raab is clearly diverging from May and therefore he must feel he has enough Cabinet support to harden his stance. His lines today will satisfy most Leavers, if he can stop May breaching them.
I said weeks ago if Raab resigns he will be PM within weeks. If he accepts a May sellout he will be finished as the Leavers will never forgive him (see Michael Gove). The only other option is the very low chance he actually gets a deal on the basis of his red lines, which would make him a hero and a shoe in when May goes.
He is a politician so he must be evaluating his prospects every step of the way. But he clearly is PM material if he plays his cards right.
On topic, an excellent piece. One possibility that we might have to face up to is that some tens of thousands of Ulster men and women may well choose to come and live in the rUK as a result of unification. Which will undoubtedly add to the gaiety of the nation.
Unfortunately, I fear that they will find the modern, tolerant, equality focused UK every bit as alien as Eire, possibly even more so. The Ulster folk are indeed caught in an unpleasant time warp of their own creation. We have done them absolutely no favours by allowing ourselves to be blackmailed by the threat of bombs and killings into paying for a quiet life.
Perhaps we could send all those Ulster Unionist men and women back to their ancestral homeland in Scotland, then we kill two birds with once stone
That is honestly my fear. When I was offered a position in Glasgow 20 years ago we went house hunting. We looked at houses and asked about local schooling. The first question was, "well, are you a catholic or a protestant"? We decided it really wasn't for us.
Very slowly, very, very, slowly, the west coast is moving away from this nonsense. The last thing they need is 50k Protestant fundamentalists stirring it all up again. It could give us another 50 years of this nonsense.
Though 500 000 Protestant Unionists moving from Ulster to Scotland would ensure a Unionist majority in Scotland and defeat indyref2
Thanks one and all for the comments much appreciated It would be today my relatives drop in unexpectedly so family duties called. The last article which I think comes out tomorrow looks at the lessons from abroad - mostly germany and what we can learn fromit.
1) Thank you for an excellent series of articles, it was a pleasure to publish these you should become a regular
2) The final piece is set to be published overnight, assuming nothing major happens
3) Why does no one talk about an Independent Northern Ireland, it would solve so many problems,
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
You may be correct but isn't that in effect voting for the deal and wouldn't the backlash for doing that be enormous. In some ways even worse than voting for it. At least that would be seen as a positive action, but abstaining would be seen as very cowardly I think. They had the opportunity to do something and did nothing. Just watched the carnage while sitting on their hands.
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
If May is ousted in a coup in the next week or 2 there could well be a snap general election before Christmas, I think enough Remainer Tory MPs like Soubry and Grieve and Wollaston may no confidence the government rather than enable PM Davis, the DUP and ERG to go to No Deal and Crash Out Brexit without a mandate from either EUref2 or a general election. The likeliest result of that general election would be Tories largest party but Corbyn PM with SNP and LD support and Corbyn would then agree the NI backstop with the EU to get the Withdrawal Agreement and transition period by Brexit Day next March
There you go again, Mr HY..... Off again in your fantasy world - presenting it all as true and inevitable - when the Lib Dems have said on numerous occasions that they will not give any support to a Corbyn government.
She would not sack them, they would resign once she survived the VNOC and then agreed the deal with the EU. Given the alternative to May would be PM Davis and No Deal the majority of Remainers would stick to May for hear of something worse.
Hunt and Javid can think what they want, if May goes she takes them down with her, the Tory Party will then be on a full steam ticket to No Deal Brexit and diehard Brexiteer leadership, only Davis, Boris, Mogg, Patel and maybe a now resigned Raab, Mourdant and McVey can apply, former Remainers will go down with the May ship and are deluded if they think they have a chance if May loses a confidence vote
I agree with you that it is very hard for her to sack Raab. But going back full circle to my original post, that is because she knows that if she did so her position would be compromised to such an extent that she might well lose the then inevitable leadership challenge. So Raab can in the meantime push the limits of open disagreement and dare her to bring him to heel. Her response to his statement (and I repeat the link here) will be very interesting. If she openly tolerates Raab's dissent then it can only be because she knows her position after a sacking would be far weaker than you think it would be.
So in summary, Raab can effectively dare her to sack him, because he thinks that she is to weak to. He doesn't want to resign because he would lose all influence as Davis and Johnson have, his departure would be far less damaging to May and she would have a much better chance of carrying on. So we're in limbo.
The fact that May's position on the NI backstop is being openly contradicted by her Brexit Secretary is I think of great significance. As the Brexiteer now offering the most effective resistance to her failed approach, with Johnson and Davis having chosen to be sidelined, the odds of 14/1 on him succeeding her look very attractive. He appears to be daring her to sack him in the knowledge that this would trigger a challenge to her leadership, and meanwhile using her weakness to further his own claims.
I agree that Dominic Raab is the likliest person to follow her into Number 10. That being said, I would be very surprised if he wields the knife.
Nobody needs to wield the knife, all it requires is Brady receives 48 letters and then May loses a VNOC.
Ultimately, for Theresa to go requires two things:
1. 48 letters to go in 2. A majority of Conservatives to consider than AN Other will get the UK a better deal
No Conservative MP has put their head above the parapet and said "I want this job, and I can do it better than Theresa", except (possibly) for Boris Johnson.
Most Conservative MPs are trapped between fear of No Deal and fear of BINO. The majority of Conservative MPs are not ideological and fear of the first is stronger. What they would really like is for a large number of Labour MPs to back the deal so they could vote "No", and then say "Well, I tried, but those damn Labour and LibDem MPs defied the whip."
And so not sending the letters is the safest thing for almost all MPs. They cling to Mrs May out of fear of the electoral consequences of either Boris or No Deal.
Then they are stuffed. If they don’t deliver on Brexit then their members will clear house. If they keep May then they lose the election
I have just thought of one good consequence of yesterday's march. We now have a riposte to Sunil's irritatingly unanswerable posting of the referendum result.
20th October
People's March 670,000. Leave Means Leave 1,200.
Figures need error bands
... People's March 670,000 (+50,000 / - 570,000) ...
The fact that May's position on the NI backstop is being openly contradicted by her Brexit Secretary is I think of great significance. As the Brexiteer now offering the most effective resistance to her failed approach, with Johnson and Davis having chosen to be sidelined, the odds of 14/1 on him succeeding her look very attractive. He appears to be daring her to sack him in the knowledge that this would trigger a challenge to her leadership, and meanwhile using her weakness to further his own claims.
I agree that Dominic Raab is the likliest person to follow her into Number 10. That being said, I would be very surprised if he wields the knife.
Nobody needs to wield the knife, all it requires is Brady receives 48 letters and then May loses a VNOC.
Ultimately, for Theresa to go requires two things:
1. 48 letters to go in 2. A majority of Conservatives to consider than AN Other will get the UK a better deal
No Conservative MP has put their head above the parapet and said "I want this job, and I can do it better than Theresa", except (possibly) for Boris Johnson.
Most Conservative MPs are trapped between fear of No Deal and fear of BINO. The majority of Conservative MPs are not ideological and fear of the first is stronger. What they would really like is for a large number of Labour MPs to back the deal so they could vote "No", and then say "Well, I tried, but those damn Labour and LibDem MPs defied the whip."
And so not sending the letters is the safest thing for almost all MPs. They cling to Mrs May out of fear of the electoral consequences of either Boris or No Deal.
The fact that May's position on the NI backstop is being openly contradicted by her Brexit Secretary is I think of great significance. As the Brexiteer now offering the most effective resistance to her failed approach, with Johnson and Davis having chosen to be sidelined, the odds of 14/1 on him succeeding her look very attractive. He appears to be daring her to sack him in the knowledge that this would trigger a challenge to her leadership, and meanwhile using her weakness to further his own claims.
I agree that Dominic Raab is the likliest person to follow her into Number 10. That being said, I would be very surprised if he wields the knife.
Nobody needs to wield the knife, all it requires is Brady receives 48 letters and then May loses a VNOC.
Ultimately, for Theresa to go requires two things:
1. 48 letters to go in 2. A majority of Conservatives to consider than AN Other will get the UK a better deal
No Conservative MP has put their head above the parapet and said "I want this job, and I can do it better than Theresa", except (possibly) for Boris Johnson.
Most Conservative MPs are trapped between fear of No Deal and fear of BINO. The majority of Conservative MPs are not ideological and fear of the first is stronger. What they would really like is for a large number of Labour MPs to back the deal so they could vote "No", and then say "Well, I tried, but those damn Labour and LibDem MPs defied the whip."
And so not sending the letters is the safest thing for almost all MPs. They cling to Mrs May out of fear of the electoral consequences of either Boris or No Deal.
Then they are stuffed. If they don’t deliver on Brexit then their members will clear house. If they keep May then they lose the election
If they go to No Deal they likely lose the next election anyway as well as trash the economy and maybe see Scotland vote for independence and NI vote for a United Ireland on top
The fact that May's position on the NI backstop is being openly contradicted by her Brexit Secretary is I think of great significance. As the Brexiteer now offering the most effective resistance to her failed approach, with Johnson and Davis having chosen to be sidelined, the odds of 14/1 on him succeeding her look very attractive. He appears to be daring her to sack him in the knowledge that this would trigger a challenge to her leadership, and meanwhile using her weakness to further his own claims.
I agree that Dominic Raab is the likliest person to follow her into Number 10. That being said, I would be very surprised if he wields the knife.
Nobody needs to wield the knife, all it requires is Brady receives 48 letters and then May loses a VNOC.
Ultimately, for Theresa to go requires two things:
1. 48 letters to go in 2. A majority of Conservatives to consider than AN Other will get the UK a better deal
No Conservative MP has put their head above the parapet and said "I want this job, and I can do it better than Theresa", except (possibly) for Boris Johnson.
Most Conservative MPs are trapped between fear of No Deal and fear of BINO. The majority of Conservative MPs are not ideological and fear of the first is stronger. What they would really like is for a large number of Labour MPs to back the deal so they could vote "No", and then say "Well, I tried, but those damn Labour and LibDem MPs defied the whip."
And so not sending the letters is the safest thing for almost all MPs. They cling to Mrs May out of fear of the electoral consequences of either Boris or No Deal.
If TM calls a General Election, is a cabinet confirmation required? ie if the Tory Leadership process is triggered, can she still call a GM?
The fact that May's position on the NI backstop is being openly contradicted by her Brexit Secretary is I think of great significance. As the Brexiteer now offering the most effective resistance to her failed approach, with Johnson and Davis having chosen to be sidelined, the odds of 14/1 on him succeeding her look very attractive. He appears to be daring her to sack him in the knowledge that this would trigger a challenge to her leadership, and meanwhile using her weakness to further his own claims.
I agree that Dominic Raab is the likliest person to follow her into Number 10. That being said, I would be very surprised if he wields the knife.
Nobody needs to wield the knife, all it requires is Brady receives 48 letters and then May loses a VNOC.
Ultimately, for Theresa to go requires two things:
1. 48 letters to go in 2. A majority of Conservatives to consider than AN Other will get the UK a better deal
No Conservative MP has put their head above the parapet and said "I want this job, and I can do it better than Theresa", except (possibly) for Boris Johnson.
Most Conservative MPs are trapped between fear of No Deal and fear of BINO. The majority of Conservative MPs are not ideological and fear of the first is stronger. What they would really like is for a large number of Labour MPs to back the deal so they could vote "No", and then say "Well, I tried, but those damn Labour and LibDem MPs defied the whip."
And so not sending the letters is the safest thing for almost all MPs. They cling to Mrs May out of fear of the electoral consequences of either Boris or No Deal.
Yes, never forget only 120 Tory MPs actually voted for Leave and over 60% voted for May in the second round of the Tory Leadership election.
At the end of the day most will vote for a backstop for NI (with a fudge over when it might be ended) over No Deal that at least gets the transition period and starts trade agreement talks with the EU even if over 100 mainly ERG MPs vote against May in a no confidence vote and most of the remaining Leavers leave the Cabinet
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
Lab+LD+SNP+Green+PC = 314 now, Tories + DUP =328.
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
On topic, an excellent piece. One possibility that we might have to face up to is that some tens of thousands of Ulster men and women may well choose to come and live in the rUK as a result of unification. Which will undoubtedly add to the gaiety of the nation.
Unfortunately, I fear that they will find the modern, tolerant, equality focused UK every bit as alien as Eire, possibly even more so. The Ulster folk are indeed caught in an unpleasant time warp of their own creation. We have done them absolutely no favours by allowing ourselves to be blackmailed by the threat of bombs and killings into paying for a quiet life.
Perhaps we could send all those Ulster Unionist men and women back to their ancestral homeland in Scotland, then we kill two birds with once stone
That is honestly my fear. When I was offered a position in Glasgow 20 years ago we went house hunting. We looked at houses and asked about local schooling. The first question was, "well, are you a catholic or a protestant"? We decided it really wasn't for us.
Very slowly, very, very, slowly, the west coast is moving away from this nonsense. The last thing they need is 50k Protestant fundamentalists stirring it all up again. It could give us another 50 years of this nonsense.
Though 500 000 Protestant Unionists moving from Ulster to Scotland would ensure a Unionist majority in Scotland and defeat indyref2
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
If May is ousted in a coup in the next week or 2 there could well be a snap general election before Christmas, I think enough Remainer Tory MPs like Soubry and Grieve and Wollaston may no confidence the government rather than enable PM Davis, the DUP and ERG to go to No Deal and Crash Out Brexit without a mandate from either EUref2 or a general election. The likeliest result of that general election would be Tories largest party but Corbyn PM with SNP and LD support and Corbyn would then agree the NI backstop with the EU to get the Withdrawal Agreement and transition period by Brexit Day next March
There you go again, Mr HY..... Off again in your fantasy world - presenting it all as true and inevitable - when the Lib Dems have said on numerous occasions that they will not give any support to a Corbyn government.
They will not give any support to a No Deal Tory PM either
She would not sack them, they would resign once she survived the VNOC and then agreed the deal with the EU. Given the alternative to May would be PM Davis and No Deal the majority of Remainers would stick to May for hear of something worse.
Hunt and Javid can think what they want, if May goes she takes them down with her, the Tory Party will then be on a full steam ticket to No Deal Brexit and diehard Brexiteer leadership, only Davis, Boris, Mogg, Patel and maybe a now resigned Raab, Mourdant and McVey can apply, former Remainers will go down with the May ship and are deluded if they think they have a chance if May loses a confidence vote
I agree with you that it is very hard for her to sack Raab. But going back full circle to my original post, that is because she knows that if she did so her position would be compromised to such an extent that she might well lose the then inevitable leadership challenge. So Raab can in the meantime push the limits of open disagreement and dare her to bring him to heel. Her response to his statement (and I repeat the link here) will be very interesting. If she openly tolerates Raab's dissent then it can only be because she knows her position after a sacking would be far weaker than you think it would be.
So in summary, Raab can effectively dare her to sack him, because he thinks that she is to weak to. He doesn't want to resign because he would lose all influence as Davis and Johnson have, his departure would be far less damaging to May and she would have a much better chance of carrying on. So we're in limbo.
If May survives a VNOC in the next fortnight as is possible she is safe for a year and can sack Raab without any repercussions for her leadership before Brexit day
Thanks one and all for the comments much appreciated It would be today my relatives drop in unexpectedly so family duties called. The last article which I think comes out tomorrow looks at the lessons from abroad - mostly germany and what we can learn fromit.
1) Thank you for an excellent series of articles, it was a pleasure to publish these you should become a regular
2) The final piece is set to be published overnight, assuming nothing major happens
3) Why does no one talk about an Independent Northern Ireland, it would solve so many problems,
3) because it is totally economically unviable?
Is the official Unionist position that there's something inherently impecunious in the peoples of these smaller countries of the UK, or that the strategic oversight of successive UK governments has been less than optimal?
Not sure that these are the only options on the table but we have certainly made a mess of NI over the last 30 years. It is regarded as the posting to Siberia, few SoS ever bother to learn any of the complexities and a success is a low body count regardless of the economic consequences.
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
Lab+LD+SNP+Green+PC = 314 now, Tories + DUP =328.
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
Currently my projections using electoral calculus is that the Tories lose 9 seats:
Cheltenham to LD Chipping Barnet to LAB Presel to LAB Pudsey to LAB Richmond Park to LD Southampton Itchen to LAB St Ives to LD Stirling to SNP Thurrock to LAB
Thanks one and all for the comments much appreciated It would be today my relatives drop in unexpectedly so family duties called. The last article which I think comes out tomorrow looks at the lessons from abroad - mostly germany and what we can learn fromit.
1) Thank you for an excellent series of articles, it was a pleasure to publish these you should become a regular
2) The final piece is set to be published overnight, assuming nothing major happens
3) Why does no one talk about an Independent Northern Ireland, it would solve so many problems,
3) because it is totally economically unviable?
Is the official Unionist position that there's something inherently impecunious in the peoples of these smaller countries of the UK, or that the strategic oversight of successive UK governments has been less than optimal?
Not sure that these are the only options on the table but we have certainly made a mess of NI over the last 30 years. It is regarded as the posting to Siberia, few SoS ever bother to learn any of the complexities and a success is a low body count regardless of the economic consequences.
To quote Yes Minister, most politicians regarded Northern Ireland as a dead end, although there was always the chance of winding up in a blaze of glory.
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
Lab+LD+SNP+Green+PC = 314 now, Tories + DUP =328.
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
I don't think the coalition you describe could assemble or survive.
Tories+DUP on c.318 MPs would be very shaky but I suspect it could stay in office for a couple of years, provided it bought off the LDs at budgets.
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
You may be correct but isn't that in effect voting for the deal and wouldn't the backlash for doing that be enormous. In some ways even worse than voting for it. At least that would be seen as a positive action, but abstaining would be seen as very cowardly I think. They had the opportunity to do something and did nothing. Just watched the carnage while sitting on their hands.
The majority of Labour held seats voted Leave.
True, but I don't think that will be the issue. It will be the sitting on their hands and abdicating responsibility on such an important issue. I think those that either vote with the Govt or against will have more credibility.
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
Lab+LD+SNP+Green+PC = 314 now, Tories + DUP =328.
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
I don't think the coalition you describe could assemble or survive.
Tories+DUP on c.318 MPs would be very shaky but I suspect it could stay in office for a couple of years, provided it bought off the LDs at budgets.
That Parliament would be better hung than the dwarf in the Bayeux Tapestry. I can't see it lasting more than six months.
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
Lab+LD+SNP+Green+PC = 314 now, Tories + DUP =328.
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
I don't think the coalition you describe could assemble or survive.
Tories+DUP on c.318 MPs would be very shaky but I suspect it could stay in office for a couple of years, provided it bought off the LDs at budgets.
The LDs would vote down any Tory PM who was not committed to soft Brexit or a deal with the EU so no Tories+DUP could not survive if the Tories were led by a No Deal, hard Brexiteer
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
Lab+LD+SNP+Green+PC = 314 now, Tories + DUP =328.
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
Currently my projections using electoral calculus is that the Tories lose 9 seats:
Cheltenham to LD Chipping Barnet to LAB Presel to LAB Pudsey to LAB Richmond Park to LD Southampton Itchen to LAB St Ives to LD Stirling to SNP Thurrock to LAB
Which would see the Tories+DUP lose their majority
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
That would be silly, and I don't believe it will happen.
'Ulster people are brusque, to the point and obstinate (with apologies to readers in Ayrshire).'
Hmmm.
Brusque, yes. Obstinate, yes.
When have we ever kept MalcolmG vaguely to the point in any thread?
Unfortunately we have some of the not so nice ones about here. But Scotland in general is far away from Ulster nowadays apart from the west central belt. Given we will be independent , a united Ireland seems a good thing to me.
3) Why does no one talk about an Independent Northern Ireland, it would solve so many problems,
Probably due to the fiscal reasons Alanbrooke addressed in his first piece. An independent NI would lack subsidies.
Doesn’t seem to deter the SNP
That is because they know the fiddled Westminster figures will not be the reality when independent. We will not be aiding murderers in Yemen , etc or running nuclear subs , paying Westminster champers bills etc. We will do just fine when we are not being robbed by Westminster.
'Ulster people are brusque, to the point and obstinate (with apologies to readers in Ayrshire).'
Hmmm.
Brusque, yes. Obstinate, yes.
When have we ever kept MalcolmG vaguely to the point in any thread?
Unfortunately we have some of the not so nice ones about here. But Scotland in general is far away from Ulster nowadays apart from the west central belt. Given we will be independent , a united Ireland seems a good thing to me.
3) Why does no one talk about an Independent Northern Ireland, it would solve so many problems,
Probably due to the fiscal reasons Alanbrooke addressed in his first piece. An independent NI would lack subsidies.
Doesn’t seem to deter the SNP
That is because they know the fiddled Westminster figures will not be the reality when independent. We will not be aiding murderers in Yemen , etc or running nuclear subs , paying Westminster champers bills etc. We will do just fine when we are not being robbed by Westminster.
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
You may be correct but isn't that in effect voting for the deal and wouldn't the backlash for doing that be enormous. In some ways even worse than voting for it. At least that would be seen as a positive action, but abstaining would be seen as very cowardly I think. They had the opportunity to do something and did nothing. Just watched the carnage while sitting on their hands.
The majority of Labour held seats voted Leave.
Most Labour voters supported Remain and there has been movement to Remain amongst that demographic since. The relevant question is whether Labour MPs would add or subtract votes by supporting a Remain position rather than a Leave one. There was research from someone who suggested it would be a positive.
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
You may be correct but isn't that in effect voting for the deal and wouldn't the backlash for doing that be enormous. In some ways even worse than voting for it. At least that would be seen as a positive action, but abstaining would be seen as very cowardly I think. They had the opportunity to do something and did nothing. Just watched the carnage while sitting on their hands.
The majority of Labour held seats voted Leave.
Most Labour voters supported Remain and there has been movement to Remain amongst that demographic since. The relevant question is whether Labour MPs would add or subtract votes by supporting a Remain position rather than a Leave one. There was research from someone who suggested it would be a positive.
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
You may be correct but isn't that in effect voting for the deal and wouldn't the backlash for doing that be enormous. In some ways even worse than voting for it. At least that would be seen as a positive action, but abstaining would be seen as very cowardly I think. They had the opportunity to do something and did nothing. Just watched the carnage while sitting on their hands.
The majority of Labour held seats voted Leave.
Most Labour voters supported Remain and there has been movement to Remain amongst that demographic since. The relevant question is whether Labour MPs would add or subtract votes by supporting a Remain position rather than a Leave one. There was research from someone who suggested it would be a positive.
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
That would be silly, and I don't believe it will happen.
I think Starmer is moving Labour gently toward supporting a second referendum if May's deal is voted down or if there is no deal and a general election cannot be engineered. I think he'd much prefer that to inheriting the catastrophic mess that would be his if he becomes Brexit secretary in the Spring with the cliff edge looming.
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
That would be silly, and I don't believe it will happen.
I think Starmer is moving Labour gently toward supporting a second referendum if May's deal is voted down or if there is no deal and a general election cannot be engineered. I think he'd much prefer that to inheriting the catastrophic mess that would be his if he becomes Brexit secretary in the Spring with the cliff edge looming.
I don't think it is that gentle at all - I don't think Labour will abstain, but it seems pretty obvious to me they will vote down any deal, and since a GE is difficult and they don't want no deal, then as you say they move to a second referendum and they can avoid firmly committing to anything.
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
That would be silly, and I don't believe it will happen.
Labour is positioned to oppose whatever the government might come up with whilst being unable and unwilling to say anything at all, beyond vacuous platitudes, about what it would do instead.
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
That would be silly, and I don't believe it will happen.
Labour is positioned to oppose whatever the government might come up with whilst being unable and unwilling to say anything at all, beyond vacuous platitudes, about what it would do instead.
Yes. Corbyn is in many ways much more similar to Blair than either would be comfortable admitting...
Thanks one and all for the comments much appreciated It would be today my relatives drop in unexpectedly so family duties called. The last article which I think comes out tomorrow looks at the lessons from abroad - mostly germany and what we can learn fromit.
1) Thank you for an excellent series of articles, it was a pleasure to publish these you should become a regular
2) The final piece is set to be published overnight, assuming nothing major happens
3) Why does no one talk about an Independent Northern Ireland, it would solve so many problems,
3) because it is totally economically unviable?
Is the official Unionist position that there's something inherently impecunious in the peoples of these smaller countries of the UK, or that the strategic oversight of successive UK governments has been less than optimal?
Not sure that these are the only options on the table but we have certainly made a mess of NI over the last 30 years. It is regarded as the posting to Siberia, few SoS ever bother to learn any of the complexities and a success is a low body count regardless of the economic consequences.
David , you missed a zero at the end there, has been at least 300 years
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
That would be silly, and I don't believe it will happen.
Labour is positioned to oppose whatever the government might come up with whilst being unable and unwilling to say anything at all, beyond vacuous platitudes, about what it would do instead.
Yes. Corbyn is in many ways much more similar to Blair than either would be comfortable admitting...
"For the many not the few" was, of course, Blairs catchphrase in 1997.
Thanks one and all for the comments much appreciated It would be today my relatives drop in unexpectedly so family duties called. The last article which I think comes out tomorrow looks at the lessons from abroad - mostly germany and what we can learn fromit.
1) Thank you for an excellent series of articles, it was a pleasure to publish these you should become a regular
2) The final piece is set to be published overnight, assuming nothing major happens
3) Why does no one talk about an Independent Northern Ireland, it would solve so many problems,
3) because it is totally economically unviable?
Is the official Unionist position that there's something inherently impecunious in the peoples of these smaller countries of the UK, or that the strategic oversight of successive UK governments has been less than optimal?
Not sure that these are the only options on the table but we have certainly made a mess of NI over the last 30 years. It is regarded as the posting to Siberia, few SoS ever bother to learn any of the complexities and a success is a low body count regardless of the economic consequences.
David , you missed a zero at the end there, has been at least 300 years
400, surely. Mind you, that was a Scottish king's fault...
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
That would be silly, and I don't believe it will happen.
Labour is positioned to oppose whatever the government might come up with whilst being unable and unwilling to say anything at all, beyond vacuous platitudes, about what it would do instead.
Yes. Corbyn is in many ways much more similar to Blair than either would be comfortable admitting...
"For the many not the few" was, of course, Blairs catchphrase in 1997.
Yes. And I doubt if it will turn out to be any more true should Corbyn get in that it was under Anthony Charles Lynton.
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
Lab+LD+SNP+Green+PC = 314 now, Tories + DUP =328.
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
Would the LDs put Corbyn into Downing Street? They'd have to positively vote in favour of it for it to happen. If they abstain, the Tories + DUP could survive.
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
That would be silly, and I don't believe it will happen.
I think Starmer is moving Labour gently toward supporting a second referendum if May's deal is voted down or if there is no deal and a general election cannot be engineered. I think he'd much prefer that to inheriting the catastrophic mess that would be his if he becomes Brexit secretary in the Spring with the cliff edge looming.
I don't think it is that gentle at all - I don't think Labour will abstain, but it seems pretty obvious to me they will vote down any deal, and since a GE is difficult and they don't want no deal, then as you say they move to a second referendum and they can avoid firmly committing to anything.
But, of course, it's even less likely that there would be the votes in the Commons for a second referendum than there would be the votes for an early election (exhibit A being Caroline Flint, who would vote for a no confidence motion but will never approve a 2nd referendum, even if Corbyn's stance changed).
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
Lab+LD+SNP+Green+PC = 314 now, Tories + DUP =328.
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
I don't think the coalition you describe could assemble or survive.
Tories+DUP on c.318 MPs would be very shaky but I suspect it could stay in office for a couple of years, provided it bought off the LDs at budgets.
That Parliament would be better hung than the dwarf in the Bayeux Tapestry. I can't see it lasting more than six months.
It all depends on political calculation, and the mood at the time.
If there was no viable alternative Government and the LDs had nothing to gain by forcing another GE then they’d abstain on the Queen’s Speech and demand their pound of flesh come budget time, otherwise keeping their distance.
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
Lab+LD+SNP+Green+PC = 314 now, Tories + DUP =328.
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
Would the LDs put Corbyn into Downing Street? They'd have to positively vote in favour of it for it to happen. If they abstain, the Tories + DUP could survive.
The LDs would not put Corbyn in Downing Street but they would not put a hard Brexit No Deal Tory in Downing Street either
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
Lab+LD+SNP+Green+PC = 314 now, Tories + DUP =328.
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
Would the LDs put Corbyn into Downing Street? They'd have to positively vote in favour of it for it to happen. If they abstain the Tories + DUP could survive.
No, LDs would not. At most would permit a hamstrung minority government.
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
Lab+LD+SNP+Green+PC = 314 now, Tories + DUP =328.
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
I don't think the coalition you describe could assemble or survive.
Tories+DUP on c.318 MPs would be very shaky but I suspect it could stay in office for a couple of years, provided it bought off the LDs at budgets.
The LDs would vote down any Tory PM who was not committed to soft Brexit or a deal with the EU so no Tories+DUP could not survive if the Tories were led by a No Deal, hard Brexiteer
That’s a different question and calculation and, yes, on that I’d broadly agree with you.
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
That would be silly, and I don't believe it will happen.
I think Starmer is moving Labour gently toward supporting a second referendum if May's deal is voted down or if there is no deal and a general election cannot be engineered. I think he'd much prefer that to inheriting the catastrophic mess that would be his if he becomes Brexit secretary in the Spring with the cliff edge looming.
I don't think it is that gentle at all - I don't think Labour will abstain, but it seems pretty obvious to me they will vote down any deal, and since a GE is difficult and they don't want no deal, then as you say they move to a second referendum and they can avoid firmly committing to anything.
But, of course, it's even less likely that there would be the votes in the Commons for a second referendum than there would be the votes for an early election (exhibit A being Caroline Flint, who would vote for a no confidence motion but will never approve a 2nd referendum, even if Corbyn's stance changed).
If the cliff edge is looming I think quite a few Tories would suppprt a second referendum. With The SNP, the LDs and most Labour MPs and others a majority would be found.
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
That would be silly, and I don't believe it will happen.
I think Starmer is moving Labour gently toward supporting a second referendum if May's deal is voted down or if there is no deal and a general election cannot be engineered. I think he'd much prefer that to inheriting the catastrophic mess that would be his if he becomes Brexit secretary in the Spring with the cliff edge looming.
I don't think it is that gentle at all - I don't think Labour will abstain, but it seems pretty obvious to me they will vote down any deal, and since a GE is difficult and they don't want no deal, then as you say they move to a second referendum and they can avoid firmly committing to anything.
But, of course, it's even less likely that there would be the votes in the Commons for a second referendum than there would be the votes for an early election (exhibit A being Caroline Flint, who would vote for a no confidence motion but will never approve a 2nd referendum, even if Corbyn's stance changed).
If the cliff edge is looming I think quite a few Tories would suppprt a second referendum. With The SNP, the LDs and most Labour MPs and others a majority would be found.
Yeah, I really don't buy the idea that any more than a handful of Tory MPs would ever back a second referendum. With a couple of exceptions, the Tory Remainers have no bottle at all. Only six of them rebelled on the "meaningful vote" motion -- if they didn't even have the guts to theoretically keep the option open of altering or delaying a Brexit deal, there's no chance they're going to vote through something which would have a chance of stopping Brexit altogether. The only ones I'd be 100% sure of voting for it are Ken Clarke and Sarah Wollaston.
Seems to me the DUP are the only chance of either a second referendum or an early election getting a majority in parliament, and it also seems obvious to me which of those two they would countenance.
Thanks one and all for the comments much appreciated It would be today my relatives drop in unexpectedly so family duties called. The last article which I think comes out tomorrow looks at the lessons from abroad - mostly germany and what we can learn fromit.
1) Thank you for an excellent series of articles, it was a pleasure to publish these you should become a regular
2) The final piece is set to be published overnight, assuming nothing major happens
3) Why does no one talk about an Independent Northern Ireland, it would solve so many problems,
3) because it is totally economically unviable?
Is the official Unionist position that there's something inherently impecunious in the peoples of these smaller countries of the UK, or that the strategic oversight of successive UK governments has been less than optimal?
Not sure that these are the only options on the table but we have certainly made a mess of NI over the last 30 years. It is regarded as the posting to Siberia, few SoS ever bother to learn any of the complexities and a success is a low body count regardless of the economic consequences.
David , you missed a zero at the end there, has been at least 300 years
400, surely. Mind you, that was a Scottish king's fault...
what's a 100 years between friends, I was a bit fixated on our own misery.
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
Lab+LD+SNP+Green+PC = 314 now, Tories + DUP =328.
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
I don't think the coalition you describe could assemble or survive.
Tories+DUP on c.318 MPs would be very shaky but I suspect it could stay in office for a couple of years, provided it bought off the LDs at budgets.
That Parliament would be better hung than the dwarf in the Bayeux Tapestry. I can't see it lasting more than six months.
It all depends on political calculation, and the mood at the time.
If there was no viable alternative Government and the LDs had nothing to gain by forcing another GE then they’d abstain on the Queen’s Speech and demand their pound of flesh come budget time, otherwise keeping their distance.
I think that's absolutely right. There would be pork galore in North Norfolk.
Off topic: I've just got my new European Union UK passport, which runs until October 2028...
What chance my next one in 2028 will also be a European Union UK passport?
Or might it be a, sadly reduced, England & Wales passport? (A Little Britain passport?)
It will be the sadly reduced version I am afraid for sure.
I fear you are right - no more than we derserve tbh. Still I live in hope that I'll have another EU passport one day :-)
What exactly do we deserve? Why would it be reduced? Will you be barred from entering other countries? I thought only racist, xenophobic little Englanders cared what their passport looked like! Smiley face, lol, etc.
That is honestly my fear. When I was offered a position in Glasgow 20 years ago we went house hunting. We looked at houses and asked about local schooling. The first question was, "well, are you a catholic or a protestant"? We decided it really wasn't for us.
Very slowly, very, very, slowly, the west coast is moving away from this nonsense. The last thing they need is 50k Protestant fundamentalists stirring it all up again. It could give us another 50 years of this nonsense.
Though 500 000 Protestant Unionists moving from Ulster to Scotland would ensure a Unionist majority in Scotland and defeat indyref2
Leaving aside the likelihood that 500,000 NI Protestants are not going to flee to Scotland in the event of reunification, it's by no means certain that they'd be reliable recruits to the Unionist/'No' camp in a Scottish context. They will consider that they have been betrayed by the British state and hung out to dry. Certain elements of the SNP (although not the current leadership, I should say) might see them as being potential allies.
Off topic: I've just got my new European Union UK passport, which runs until October 2028...
What chance my next one in 2028 will also be a European Union UK passport?
Or might it be a, sadly reduced, England & Wales passport? (A Little Britain passport?)
It will be the sadly reduced version I am afraid for sure.
I fear you are right - no more than we derserve tbh. Still I live in hope that I'll have another EU passport one day :-)
What exactly do we deserve? Why would it be reduced? Will you be barred from entering other countries? I thought only racist, xenophobic little Englanders cared what their passport looked like! Smiley face, lol, etc.
You're taking me too seriously - twistedfirestopper2 would never have done that
That is honestly my fear. When I was offered a position in Glasgow 20 years ago we went house hunting. We looked at houses and asked about local schooling. The first question was, "well, are you a catholic or a protestant"? We decided it really wasn't for us.
Very slowly, very, very, slowly, the west coast is moving away from this nonsense. The last thing they need is 50k Protestant fundamentalists stirring it all up again. It could give us another 50 years of this nonsense.
Though 500 000 Protestant Unionists moving from Ulster to Scotland would ensure a Unionist majority in Scotland and defeat indyref2
Leaving aside the likelihood that 500,000 NI Protestants are not going to flee to Scotland in the event of reunification, it's by no means certain that they'd be reliable recruits to the Unionist/'No' camp in a Scottish context. They will consider that they have been betrayed by the British state and hung out to dry. Certain elements of the SNP (although not the current leadership, I should say) might see them as being potential allies.
Interesting to see in this interesting piece from The Lancet that in the top 10 countries in the longevity forecast for 2040, 5 out of 10 are in the EU, and 8/10 in Eurovision
Also a fascinating inverse relation with fertility rates. What is it about having children that finishes us off?
Off topic: I've just got my new European Union UK passport, which runs until October 2028...
What chance my next one in 2028 will also be a European Union UK passport?
Or might it be a, sadly reduced, England & Wales passport? (A Little Britain passport?)
It will be the sadly reduced version I am afraid for sure.
I fear you are right - no more than we derserve tbh. Still I live in hope that I'll have another EU passport one day :-)
What exactly do we deserve? Why would it be reduced? Will you be barred from entering other countries? I thought only racist, xenophobic little Englanders cared what their passport looked like! Smiley face, lol, etc.
You're taking me too seriously - twistedfirestopper2 would never have done that
The Stopper2 version was younger, fitter, more attractive to women and wasn't sick to death of Brexit......
It seems to me that the official Labout position on the deal which May brings to the Commons will be to abstain, although some Labour MPs will vote in favour and a few against.
That would be silly, and I don't believe it will happen.
I think Starmer is moving Labour gently toward supporting a second referendum if May's deal is voted down or if there is no deal and a general election cannot be engineered. I think he'd much prefer that to inheriting the catastrophic mess that would be his if he becomes Brexit secretary in the Spring with the cliff edge looming.
I don't think it is that gentle at all - I don't think Labour will abstain, but it seems pretty obvious to me they will vote down any deal, and since a GE is difficult and they don't want no deal, then as you say they move to a second referendum and they can avoid firmly committing to anything.
But, of course, it's even less likely that there would be the votes in the Commons for a second referendum than there would be the votes for an early election (exhibit A being Caroline Flint, who would vote for a no confidence motion but will never approve a 2nd referendum, even if Corbyn's stance changed).
If the cliff edge is looming I think quite a few Tories would suppprt a second referendum. With The SNP, the LDs and most Labour MPs and others a majority would be found.
Yeah, I really don't buy the idea that any more than a handful of Tory MPs would ever back a second referendum. With a couple of exceptions, the Tory Remainers have no bottle at all. Only six of them rebelled on the "meaningful vote" motion -- if they didn't even have the guts to theoretically keep the option open of altering or delaying a Brexit deal, there's no chance they're going to vote through something which would have a chance of stopping Brexit altogether. The only ones I'd be 100% sure of voting for it are Ken Clarke and Sarah Wollaston.
Seems to me the DUP are the only chance of either a second referendum or an early election getting a majority in parliament, and it also seems obvious to me which of those two they would countenance.
I wonder if the DUP is getting cold feet about the whole idea of Brexit - even they can see that it will bring a united Ireland much closer. Their recent intransigence could be an attempt to undermine May's chances of getting a deal and thus cause the whole process to collapse. And their hands will not be soiled....
Off topic: I've just got my new European Union UK passport, which runs until October 2028...
What chance my next one in 2028 will also be a European Union UK passport?
Or might it be a, sadly reduced, England & Wales passport? (A Little Britain passport?)
It will be the sadly reduced version I am afraid for sure.
I fear you are right - no more than we derserve tbh. Still I live in hope that I'll have another EU passport one day :-)
What exactly do we deserve? Why would it be reduced? Will you be barred from entering other countries? I thought only racist, xenophobic little Englanders cared what their passport looked like! Smiley face, lol, etc.
You're taking me too seriously - twistedfirestopper2 would never have done that
The Stopper2 version was younger, fitter, more attractive to women and wasn't sick to death of Brexit......
That is honestly my fear. When I was offered a position in Glasgow 20 years ago we went house hunting. We looked at houses and asked about local schooling. The first question was, "well, are you a catholic or a protestant"? We decided it really wasn't for us.
Very slowly, very, very, slowly, the west coast is moving away from this nonsense. The last thing they need is 50k Protestant fundamentalists stirring it all up again. It could give us another 50 years of this nonsense.
Though 500 000 Protestant Unionists moving from Ulster to Scotland would ensure a Unionist majority in Scotland and defeat indyref2
Leaving aside the likelihood that 500,000 NI Protestants are not going to flee to Scotland in the event of reunification, it's by no means certain that they'd be reliable recruits to the Unionist/'No' camp in a Scottish context. They will consider that they have been betrayed by the British state and hung out to dry. Certain elements of the SNP (although not the current leadership, I should say) might see them as being potential allies.
err no
theyll be doubly pissed off
I think that NI Protestant immigrants in most circumstances would vote 'No', but I don't think you can automatically count on their allegiance - particularly, say, with a radical Corbynista government in London and an SNP that was prepared to appeal to them (under different leadership). I do recall afterall that certain parts of the Loyalist movement were prepared to countenance independence in the 70s.
Interesting to see in this interesting piece from The Lancet that in the top 10 countries in the longevity forecast for 2040, 5 out of 10 are in the EU, and 8/10 in Eurovision
Also a fascinating inverse relation with fertility rates. What is it about having children that finishes us off?
I have just thought of one good consequence of yesterday's march. We now have a riposte to Sunil's irritatingly unanswerable posting of the referendum result.
20th October
People's March 670,000. Leave Means Leave 1,200.
Only me!
People's March in 2018 = 670,000 LEAVE votes in 2016 = 17,400,000
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
Lab+LD+SNP+Green+PC = 314 now, Tories + DUP =328.
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
Currently my projections using electoral calculus is that the Tories lose 9 seats:
Cheltenham to LD Chipping Barnet to LAB Presel to LAB Pudsey to LAB Richmond Park to LD Southampton Itchen to LAB St Ives to LD Stirling to SNP Thurrock to LAB
In those circumstances I think the Tories could gain a few seats. Kensington, Canterbury and Newcastle-under-Lyme? Prospect of a Corbyn government would tighten the vote in seats with big defence employment. On these figures no stable government could be created which could lead to a National Government to "sort out Brexit" based on a split in Labour and Tories.
That is honestly my fear. When I was offered a position in Glasgow 20 years ago we went house hunting. We looked at houses and asked about local schooling. The first question was, "well, are you a catholic or a protestant"? We decided it really wasn't for us.
Very slowly, very, very, slowly, the west coast is moving away from this nonsense. The last thing they need is 50k Protestant fundamentalists stirring it all up again. It could give us another 50 years of this nonsense.
Though 500 000 Protestant Unionists moving from Ulster to Scotland would ensure a Unionist majority in Scotland and defeat indyref2
Leaving aside the likelihood that 500,000 NI Protestants are not going to flee to Scotland in the event of reunification, it's by no means certain that they'd be reliable recruits to the Unionist/'No' camp in a Scottish context. They will consider that they have been betrayed by the British state and hung out to dry. Certain elements of the SNP (although not the current leadership, I should say) might see them as being potential allies.
err no
theyll be doubly pissed off
I think that NI Protestant immigrants in most circumstances would vote 'No', but I don't think you can automatically count on their allegiance - particularly, say, with a radical Corbynista government in London and an SNP that was prepared to appeal to them (under different leadership). I do recall afterall that certain parts of the Loyalist movement were prepared to countenance independence in the 70s.
Poll published 19th October: Kantar Public Opinion The Conservative party maintain their +5 lead in October’s voting intentions. Scores for each party remain largely unchanged. [Among likely voters: Conservatives 41% (+1), Labour 36% (+1), Lib Dems 10% (nc), SNP 4 % (nc), Green 4% (nc), UKIP 3% (-2%), PC 1% (+1), Other 2% (+1).]
Of the 7 published polls whose fieldwork took place in October, Labour have led in just one.
Following the three latest polls (which have the Tories leading by between 1% and 5%) the EMA has the Tories on 39.5% and Labour on 37.8%.
This results in: Con 309 seats Lab 262 seats LD 17 seats Grn 1 seat PC 3 seats NI 18 seats
Tories 17 short of an overall majority. Horribly hung!
In practice the Tories could benefit from Kippers voting Tory if no UKIP candidate. Labour could also benefit from more exposure and equal air time in an election campaign. Who knows? I think we can be confident there wouldn't be a majority Labour government but roughly equal chance of a minority Tory (with DUP) or minority Labour government (assuming LDs wouldn't give C&S to the Tories).
Changes from the last election:
Con -9 Lab no change LD +5 PC -1
Enough to make Corbyn PM propped up by minor parties
If the Conservatives are north of 310MPs it'll be a minority Government.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
Lab+LD+SNP+Green+PC = 314 now, Tories + DUP =328.
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
Currently my projections using electoral calculus is that the Tories lose 9 seats:
Cheltenham to LD Chipping Barnet to LAB Presel to LAB Pudsey to LAB Richmond Park to LD Southampton Itchen to LAB St Ives to LD Stirling to SNP Thurrock to LAB
In those circumstances I think the Tories could gain a few seats. Kensington, Canterbury and Newcastle-under-Lyme? Prospect of a Corbyn government would tighten the vote in seats with big defence employment. On these figures no stable government could be created which could lead to a National Government to "sort out Brexit" based on a split in Labour and Tories.
Surely Barrow is a probable goner for Labour next time after recent events and with Corbyn's notable lack of enthusiasm for nuclear weapons?
Interesting to see in this interesting piece from The Lancet that in the top 10 countries in the longevity forecast for 2040, 5 out of 10 are in the EU, and 8/10 in Eurovision
Also a fascinating inverse relation with fertility rates. What is it about having children that finishes us off?
Comments
The likeliest result of that general election would be Tories largest party but Corbyn PM with SNP and LD support and Corbyn would then agree the NI backstop with the EU to get the Withdrawal Agreement and transition period by Brexit Day next March
Con -9
Lab no change
LD +5
PC -1
(And also generally excellent novels.)
If May survives a VONC she survives for a year and cannot be toppled before Brexit
I'm really enjoying these.
1. 48 letters to go in
2. A majority of Conservatives to consider than AN Other will get the UK a better deal
No Conservative MP has put their head above the parapet and said "I want this job, and I can do it better than Theresa", except (possibly) for Boris Johnson.
Most Conservative MPs are trapped between fear of No Deal and fear of BINO. The majority of Conservative MPs are not ideological and fear of the first is stronger. What they would really like is for a large number of Labour MPs to back the deal so they could vote "No", and then say "Well, I tried, but those damn Labour and LibDem MPs defied the whip."
And so not sending the letters is the safest thing for almost all MPs. They cling to Mrs May out of fear of the electoral consequences of either Boris or No Deal.
Anything less they'll more likely be out of office.
I said weeks ago if Raab resigns he will be PM within weeks. If he accepts a May sellout he will be finished as the Leavers will never forgive him (see Michael Gove). The only other option is the very low chance he actually gets a deal on the basis of his red lines, which would make him a hero and a shoe in when May goes.
He is a politician so he must be evaluating his prospects every step of the way. But he clearly is PM material if he plays his cards right.
So in summary, Raab can effectively dare her to sack him, because he thinks that she is to weak to. He doesn't want to resign because he would lose all influence as Davis and Johnson have, his departure would be far less damaging to May and she would have a much better chance of carrying on. So we're in limbo.
https://www.itv.com/news/2018-10-21/dominic-raab-undermines-theresa-may-on-brexit-transition/
https://twitter.com/teaforpterosaur/status/1053675118747152384
...
People's March 670,000 (+50,000 / - 570,000)
...
A detail I do not know.
At the end of the day most will vote for a backstop for NI (with a fudge over when it might be ended) over No Deal that at least gets the transition period and starts trade agreement talks with the EU even if over 100 mainly ERG MPs vote against May in a no confidence vote and most of the remaining Leavers leave the Cabinet
Assuming the DUP hold all their seats, the Tories can only afford to lose a maximum of 7 seats to Labour or the LDs or the SNP if they want to be assured of keeping Corbyn out of No 10
Cheltenham to LD
Chipping Barnet to LAB
Presel to LAB
Pudsey to LAB
Richmond Park to LD
Southampton Itchen to LAB
St Ives to LD
Stirling to SNP
Thurrock to LAB
Tories+DUP on c.318 MPs would be very shaky but I suspect it could stay in office for a couple of years, provided it bought off the LDs at budgets.
If there was no viable alternative Government and the LDs had nothing to gain by forcing another GE then they’d abstain on the Queen’s Speech and demand their pound of flesh come budget time, otherwise keeping their distance.
Seems to me the DUP are the only chance of either a second referendum or an early election getting a majority in parliament, and it also seems obvious to me which of those two they would countenance.
What chance my next one in 2028 will also be a European Union UK passport?
Or might it be a, sadly reduced, England & Wales passport? (A Little Britain passport?)
https://twitter.com/P_G_Thompson/status/1053585200658157569
theyll be doubly pissed off
Also a fascinating inverse relation with fertility rates. What is it about having children that finishes us off?
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1054080121127231491?s=19
The comments might not be what many of us might have expected
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/woman-sparks-fury-wearing-racist-13455002
I'll get my coat.
People's March in 2018 = 670,000
LEAVE votes in 2016 = 17,400,000
Today, it's about how blue we're feeling.