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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling blow UKIP betting favourite to win most votes at E

SystemSystem Posts: 12,250
edited October 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling blow UKIP betting favourite to win most votes at EP2014: Survation has them 13pc behind

Ever since UKIP strong performances in February’s Eastleigh by-election and the May local election there’s been an expectation that the party could top the polls in the May 2914 elections for the European Parliament. The purples were odds-on. They’ve now eased a bit but they remain the favourite.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • adamandcatadamandcat Posts: 76
    1?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    Interesting

    Next summer after the Euros could be a hectic and soul searching time for the Tories if the Kippers outpoll the blues
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    Labour has dropped its opposition to the Conservatives' free schools policy, the new shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt has signalled.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-10-12/labour-will-keep-free-schools/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    FPT Fitalass

    "A Conservative spokesman said the allegations were "completely untrue". "At no point was George involved in, or even made aware of, the allocations," a spokesman said."

    Those weren't the allegations. Just that George's best man made a cool £50 million. Nothing wrong with that. We're all capitalists now.

    PS Would Lansdownes mind not writing to me any more if they only deal with pension funds and charities. I'm neither
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    Where Michael Gove leads, Labour follows.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    The most depressing thing about this polling, apart from the fact, I'm on a romantic break, is that if will give ammunition to Adam Afriyie to act like a treacherous little wan core.

    That's utterly depressing for us Blues
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013
    "Farage & co have been out of the news over the past few weeks and in next year’s campaign they can expect the spotlight to be on them.

    The poll also had strong backing for the idea of an EU referendum BEFORE GE2015."

    It should be amusing watching exactly how Cammie fights an EU election without putting more meat on his Cast Iron Referendum Pledge or reigniting the ever widening IN OUT split in the tory party over the EU, but there's no question the tories will be breathing a sigh of relief if they get more polls like this showing the kippers fading.

    Farage simply hasn't done very well since May and the kipper conference was a clear sign that all is not well.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,315
    Broken sleazy Tories on the slide?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Labour has dropped its opposition to the Conservatives' free schools policy, the new shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt has signalled.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-10-12/labour-will-keep-free-schools/

    Is that two U-turns in one day? First "tougher in benefits" Reeves, now Hunt?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2013
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Labour has dropped its opposition to the Conservatives' free schools policy, the new shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt has signalled.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-10-12/labour-will-keep-free-schools/

    Most sensible thing Labour has done for years, if true.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    While I don't doubt the methodology of this poll, it does seem odd that UKIP could be on 18% GE support but only 22% EU election support. They used to have a huge disparity between those figures in the past.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,735
    Labour WTF???

    In other news, my boy got badly beaten up today in a scrum while playing for his club. The loose head he was up against butted him in the wind pipe causing him to pass out. It's tough watching that kind of thing. The good news is he recovered enough to anchor a push over try after the scrum was reset. It was the winning score. He had to come off though. It's a brutal thing, the front row; and at 19 he still has a lot to learn about looking after himself.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    @Tim

    "Labour get 37% in the Euros and I'll fellate Jeremy Hunt"

    That's hard to swallow

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Labour has dropped its opposition to the Conservatives' free schools policy, the new shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt has signalled.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-10-12/labour-will-keep-free-schools/

    Is that two U-turns in one day? First "tougher in benefits" Reeves, now Hunt?
    On free schools, isn't it technically an N turn?

    Labour used to be in favour of free schools, until Michael Gove became a fan
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    edited October 2013
    Would JohnO care to comment on this.

    The Elmbridge district, which includes the wealthy commuter villages of Claygate, Esher, Oxshott, Weybridge and Cobham, is among the most popular ‘dogging’ hotspots in the country.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2455539/Surrey-enclave-al-fresco-sex-capital-Britain-nearly-100-dogging-sites.html#ixzz2hY7q32K0
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,315
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting

    Next summer after the Euros could be a hectic and soul searching time for the Tories if the Kippers outpoll the blues

    "I would love it if we beat them! Love it!" - K. Keegan.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    MikeSmithson said:

    @Tim

    "Labour get 37% in the Euros and I'll fellate Jeremy Hunt"

    That's hard to swallow

    I'm sure Tim will take it on the chin.

    Boom tish
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013
    Hunt will change the free schools to something almost as silly and he isn't as toxic with the voters as Gove. Yet. He sticks close enough to the Gove line on things and he could well be.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IIRC polls for the Euro election are not usually reliable until just a few weeks before the election itself. Until then they tend to be unduly influenced by Westminster voting intentions.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,315
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Would JohnO care to comment on this.

    The Elmbridge district, which includes the wealthy commuter villages of Claygate, Esher, Oxshott, Weybridge and Cobham, is among the most popular ‘dogging’ hotspots in the country.

    I have visited all of those stations, albeit back in 2009.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    SouthamObserver said:

    Labour WTF???

    In other news, my boy got badly beaten up today in a scrum while playing for his club. The loose head he was up against butted him in the wind pipe causing him to pass out. It's tough watching that kind of thing. The good news is he recovered enough to anchor a push over try after the scrum was reset. It was the winning score. He had to come off though. It's a brutal thing, the front row; and at 19 he still has a lot to learn about looking after himself.

    If it's any consolation, I know people who have suffered worse injuries playing rugby.

    They view it as character building for later challenges
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I find this song infuriatingly catchy.... Checkout the dedication at the end... I think it's about someone bottling it when it comes to the crunch!

    DC gave it the thumbs up anyway

    http://youtu.be/4N1FqYwDH9I
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Labour has dropped its opposition to the Conservatives' free schools policy, the new shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt has signalled.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-10-12/labour-will-keep-free-schools/

    Is that two U-turns in one day? First "tougher in benefits" Reeves, now Hunt?
    On free schools, isn't it technically an N turn?

    Labour used to be in favour of free schools, until Michael Gove became a fan
    Quite right! But I'd call it a Z turn, as it's closer to "U"!

    Wonder what's next?

    Might as well clear the decks while they are at it.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Labour has dropped its opposition to the Conservatives' free schools policy, the new shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt has signalled.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-10-12/labour-will-keep-free-schools/

    Is that two U-turns in one day? First "tougher in benefits" Reeves, now Hunt?
    On free schools, isn't it technically an N turn?

    Labour used to be in favour of free schools, until Michael Gove became a fan
    Quite right! But I'd call it a Z turn, as it's closer to "U"!

    Wonder what's next?

    Might as well clear the decks while they are at it.....
    It should be a lower case "n" turn.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Would JohnO care to comment on this.

    The Elmbridge district, which includes the wealthy commuter villages of Claygate, Esher, Oxshott, Weybridge and Cobham, is among the most popular ‘dogging’ hotspots in the country.

    I have visited all of those stations, albeit back in 2009.
    Is there something you'd like to tell us?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,519
    edited October 2013
    What is Survation's record on Euro election polls? I though yougov was generally most accurate?
    As the Euro polls are under PR what it does show is that UKIP would be ahead of the Tories potentially at Westminster under a reformed electoral system. Yet, if you combine the Tory and UKIP scores you get a higher total than both Labour but also Labour and the Greens and the SNP/PC combined. The division on the right is now the major story of this parliament and the next election!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    Come the revolution......


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHd0cz5110M
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,315
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Would JohnO care to comment on this.

    The Elmbridge district, which includes the wealthy commuter villages of Claygate, Esher, Oxshott, Weybridge and Cobham, is among the most popular ‘dogging’ hotspots in the country.

    I have visited all of those stations, albeit back in 2009.
    Is there something you'd like to tell us?
    Model trains, TSE, not 'models', per se :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    "Parent Led Academies"

    "So, to summarize: Mr Gove is pursuing a policy that allows parents to establish new schools using public money, which they then lead outside local authority control.

    Labour is going to scrap that policy and replace it with one that gives parents a role in setting up new local schools using public money, which would then be “parent-led” and largely outside council control."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100222085/labours-new-free-schools-policy-a-red-rose-by-another-name/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    A poll tomorrow by Survation for the start of immigration week on Sky News reveals that 67% believe the coalition’s attempt to reduce net migration to 100,000 is not sufficient. A majority think the Home Office vans were a good idea.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Labour has dropped its opposition to the Conservatives' free schools policy, the new shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt has signalled.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-10-12/labour-will-keep-free-schools/

    Is that two U-turns in one day? First "tougher in benefits" Reeves, now Hunt?
    On free schools, isn't it technically an N turn?

    Labour used to be in favour of free schools, until Michael Gove became a fan
    Quite right! But I'd call it a Z turn, as it's closer to "U"!

    Wonder what's next?

    Might as well clear the decks while they are at it.....
    It should be a lower case "n" turn.
    Fair enough - lower case "u" and "n" - might as well get the nomenclature right - I suspect we're going to be needing it in the days ahead...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A majority think the Home Office vans were a good idea.

    I expect tim will post that frequently in the days ahead....he's a great believer in polling evidence..

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    I don't think the Hunt story is new. Twigg had been saying pretty much the same thing for a while.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP on 18% despite zero media coverage recently.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    UKIP will do better than that in the Euro !
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Owen Jones tweets : Bit tipsy so my comment on Labour’s self-destructive social security policy for now is: AAAGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.

    Wonder what he thinks of the education policy.....
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    What is Survation's record on Euro election polls? I though yougov was generally most accurate?
    As the Euro polls are under PR what it does show is that UKIP would be ahead of the Tories potentially at Westminster under a reformed electoral system. Yet, if you combine the Tory and UKIP scores you get a higher total than both Labour but also Labour and the Greens and the SNP/PC combined. The division on the right is now the major story of this parliament and the next election!

    Survation started political polling in Jan 2010 so doesn't have a record with Euro elections.



  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    edited October 2013
    Blimey, the plebgate story in the Sunday Times.

    I'm utterly stunned.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Labour U turn, Twigg must be livid.
    Conservatives implemented it, Labour opposed it, now they are backing it.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Labour has dropped its opposition to the Conservatives' free schools policy, the new shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt has signalled.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-10-12/labour-will-keep-free-schools/

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Carola said:

    I don't think the Hunt story is new. Twigg had been saying pretty much the same thing for a while.

    Twigg said this in June but IIRC got a smack for his pains..... Maybe Ed trusts the Hon Tristram Hunt more....

    Toby Young tweets:
    Glad to hear Hunt is four square behind free schools. Time to apologise for saying they're "vanity projects for West London yummy mummies"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, the plebgate story in the Sunday Times.

    I'm utterly stunned.

    But can there be charges and a fair trial?

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Can you provide a link to where George's best man made a cool £50 million, or did you just make it up?

    Its not what is reported in that Daily Mail article. "George Osborne's best man is among the employees of a hedge fund company that is set to make millions for its investors after landing a £50million stake in Royal Mail."

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2455653/George-Osbornes-best-man-Peter-Davies-make-millions-Royal-Mail-shares.html#ixzz2hYEMfSln
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
    Roger said:

    FPT Fitalass

    "A Conservative spokesman said the allegations were "completely untrue". "At no point was George involved in, or even made aware of, the allocations," a spokesman said."

    Those weren't the allegations. Just that George's best man made a cool £50 million. Nothing wrong with that. We're all capitalists now.

    PS Would Lansdownes mind not writing to me any more if they only deal with pension funds and charities. I'm neither

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013
    Carola said:

    I don't think the Hunt story is new. Twigg had been saying pretty much the same thing for a while.

    Obviously but try telling that to the scottish tory surgers and they won't believe you.
    Stephen Twigg: More academies, more freedom — my plan to keep London top of the class

    “Inevitably on issues around school structures, the government of the day will set the pace and we have to respond to that,” concedes Twigg.

    Labour’s response was at first critical but muted: its front bench didn’t talk much about academies and free schools at all. But in June this year, Twigg gave a bold speech in which he effectively signed Labour up to most aspects of the new schools. Spun at the time as spelling a halt to new free schools, he in fact opened the door to new “parent academies” or ones started by teachers — free schools in all but name.

    Twigg is unequivocal. “Academies are here to stay,” he says. “The majority of secondary schools now are academies, that is not something I’m going to change, and if further schools want to convert, that’s fine by me.”

    http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/stephen-twigg-more-academies-more-freedom--my-plan-to-keep-london-top-of-the-class-8834554.html
    *chortle* :D

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    I saw Owen Jones on TV today. He's weirdly unimpressive. The fact that he's given so much BBC time suggests that left wing bias is a figment of someone's imagination.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    From the Mail article Hunt is just saying what Twigg has said:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2456871/Labours-shock-U-turn-Free-Schools-Milibands-new-education-supremo-reveals-party-WILL-support-academies-called-yummy-mummy-schools.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    edited October 2013
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, the plebgate story in the Sunday Times.

    I'm utterly stunned.

    But can there be charges and a fair trial?

    The whistleblower is credible by all accounts, but is scared that his career in the Met will end if he outed.

    This is the bit from the Sunday Times, that will make it highly political

    "The Sunday Times has learnt that in mid-July this year, the whistleblower approached David Davis, the Tory MP who has been helping Mitchell try to clear his name. In June, Davis was responsible for handing police information that led to the arrest of four more people implicated in the conspiracy, including two police officers."

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1327068.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2013_10_12
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Margaret Beckett standing for Parliament at Lincoln in February 1974 at 10 mins 20 secs:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=UflevK4fD4I&amp
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    CarlottaVance said:

    Carola said:

    I don't think the Hunt story is new. Twigg had been saying pretty much the same thing for a while.

    Twigg said this in June but IIRC got a smack for his pains..... Maybe Ed trusts the Hon Tristram Hunt more....

    Toby Young tweets:
    Glad to hear Hunt is four square behind free schools. Time to apologise for saying they're "vanity projects for West London yummy mummies"
    A smack? Do you have a link? And if that's the case why would Ed promote T Hunt?

    Anyway, Twigg was repeating it in October.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    @Fitalass

    "Can you provide a link to where George's best man made a cool £50 million, or did you just make it up?"

    Here you go......

    "George Osborne's best man is among the employees of a hedge fund company that is set to make millions for its investors after landing a £50million stake in Royal Mail.""

    Like most Mail readers textural analysis isn't my strong point. I just read it that George's mate made a cool £50,000.000. isn't that what the Mail does and why we Tories love and quote it so often?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2013
    "An EU study has found 600,000 unemployed migrants are living in Britain - a 42 per cent rise":

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/10375358/True-scale-of-European-immigration.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, the plebgate story in the Sunday Times.

    I'm utterly stunned.

    Can you give more details? I don't have access. Thanks.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited October 2013
    Up to 50mm (2 ins) of rain expected over S.E. England Coast between 6am - 12 noon Sunday ..... Wow!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    AndyJS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Blimey, the plebgate story in the Sunday Times.

    I'm utterly stunned.

    Can you give more details? I don't have access. Thanks.
    An officer has alleged that there was a stitch up involving Police Protection Officers to bring down Andrew Mitchell and toxify the Tories
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    I am not at all depressed over this. The Conservatives haven't been this united over the issue of Europe for a while, and now they are offering a Referendum after they have renegotiated powers back from the EU. Do you really think that Labour will manage 35% in the Euro's next year, do you see their GTVO campaign being that effective when it comes to the issue of Europe? It would be the first time in twenty years they reached that they achieved such a result, they couldn't even manage it when Tony Blair was Labour Leader.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The most depressing thing about this polling, apart from the fact, I'm on a romantic break, is that if will give ammunition to Adam Afriyie to act like a treacherous little wan core.

    That's utterly depressing for us Blues

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,519
    OGH Thanks for that, looks like we will have to wait until next year to tell then
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Roger said:

    FPT Fitalass

    "A Conservative spokesman said the allegations were "completely untrue". "At no point was George involved in, or even made aware of, the allocations," a spokesman said."

    Those weren't the allegations. Just that George's best man made a cool £50 million. Nothing wrong with that. We're all capitalists now.

    PS Would Lansdownes mind not writing to me any more if they only deal with pension funds and charities. I'm neither

    Surely not that the guy made £50 million but that his company did. Smear story in the DT , the Wail etc. Roll on press regulation.

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Statistically, every Tory in the fair nation of Scotland must be on here tonight.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    Bobajob said:

    Statistically, every Tory in the fair nation of Scotland must be on here tonight.

    What all 412,885 of them?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    "An officer has alleged that there was a stitch up involving Police Protection Officers to bring down Andrew Mitchell and toxify the Tories"

    I just don't believe it. I can believe one officer might jeopardize their career to damage a politician they've never met but not four. It's fantasy.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Survation is LOL fodder - even the reddest of red comrades don't believe our Blue friends are on 27%.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    Roger said:

    "An officer has alleged that there was a stitch up involving Police Protection Officers to bring down Andrew Mitchell and toxify the Tories"

    I just don't believe it. I can believe one officer might jeopardize their career to damage a politician they've never met but not four. It's fantasy.

    One of them emailed a Tory MP to say he was an ordinary member of the public and saw the whole thing, but was miles away.

    Another said things that turned out to be palpably untrue.

    As Chris Mullin put it a few months ago, if the police can do this to a cabinet minister, then there's no one they won't do it to.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited October 2013
    So you just saw George Osborne's best man and £50 million, naturally assumed the worst, and instantly just added them together? :)

    This is great news for any pension funds and other investors like Charities who are managed by this hedge fund, they will benefit from such an astute investment.
    Roger said:

    @Fitalass

    "Can you provide a link to where George's best man made a cool £50 million, or did you just make it up?"

    Here you go......

    "George Osborne's best man is among the employees of a hedge fund company that is set to make millions for its investors after landing a £50million stake in Royal Mail.""

    Like most Mail readers textural analysis isn't my strong point. I just read it that George's mate made a cool £50,000.000. isn't that what the Mail does and why we Tories love and quote it so often?

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Every last one - your number is A Made Up Number. There are no Scottish Tories and all of those zero are on here tonight. Extraordinary.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    @Fitalass

    You are quite right to be sanguine - nobody cares about the Euro elections, which are the equivalent of a horse race staged in the pitch black in front of no-one. You might win, you might lose, but nobody notices.
  • GarethofthevaleGarethofthevale Posts: 503
    MikeSmithson said:

    @Tim

    "Labour get 37% in the Euros and I'll fellate Jeremy Hunt"

    That's hard to swallow

    No it's not very likely at all. The problem Labour have is differential turnout, which hurts them badly in a PR system. At the last general election Labour won 47 seats to the Cons 21 in the North West but at the last Euro election the Cons got 423k votes to Labour's 337k

    It goes to show why all this talk of a Lib/Lab coalition bringing in PR without a referendum would be crazy. It would wipe away Labour's turnout advantage.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Bobajob said:

    Every last one - your number is A Made Up Number. There are no Scottish Tories and all of those zero are on here tonight. Extraordinary.

    It's the number who voted Tory in Scotland in 2010.

    Given turnout was 63.8% , the actual number of Scottish Tories is likely to be ~ 650,000
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    There were so many delicious outcomes of that unhelpful Adam Afriyie demand for a referendum next year. The 140 Tory MP's who wrote him a note basically telling him to sod off and shut up. Jo Swinson unable to hide her amusement when the question came up on Question Time, as well as her input in that wee debate. But best of all, Tom Watson being the first to jump in with his support and backing. This effectively meant Afriyie's intervention was even more fatally holed below the water line within his own party. :)
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The most depressing thing about this polling, apart from the fact, I'm on a romantic break, is that if will give ammunition to Adam Afriyie to act like a treacherous little wan core.

    That's utterly depressing for us Blues

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Labour has announced a reversal of its policy on free schools and is to abandon opposition to the Tories flagship state schools programme.

    In a surprise move the new shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt, has also signalled a further change saying there would be no return to the days when all state schools were under the control of the local authority. The TV historian, who was among the big winners in Ed Miliband's shadow cabinet reshuffle, confirmed that a Labour government would not close down any of the free schools established under the reforms pioneered by education secretary Michael Gove.

    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2013/oct/13/tristram-hunt-labour-free-schools?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
  • AlbionTilIDieAlbionTilIDie Posts: 119
    tim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Labour has dropped its opposition to the Conservatives' free schools policy, the new shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt has signalled.

    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-10-12/labour-will-keep-free-schools/

    They'll democratise them that was always the policy, no more Gove Madrassas or Tobeschools that get to keep the poor kids elsewhere.

    Where's the Madrasser Tim?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    CarlottaVance said:

    Bobajob said:

    Every last one - your number is A Made Up Number. There are no Scottish Tories and all of those zero are on here tonight. Extraordinary.

    It's the number who voted Tory in Scotland in 2010.

    Given turnout was 63.8% , the actual number of Scottish Tories is likely to be ~ 650,000
    Nonsense - there are the square root of zero Scottish Tories and every last one of those are on here tonight.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    Sunday Times says official approaches have been made from the Tory Party to Jeremy Browne to defect.

    He is mulling over the offer
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    This sounds about as subtle as that George Osborne attempt to try and get David Laws to defect. If I was Jeremy Browne, I would want to be wooed with flowers, chocolates and a new blue tinged yellow book, and all swiftly followed by the Conservatives down on one knee begging me to cross over to the dark side. :)
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunday Times says official approaches have been made from the Tory Party to Jeremy Browne to defect.

    He is mulling over the offer

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Oh that is right, you don't believe I am Scottish or a Tory voter. The Conservatives just won a local by election in Scotland last Thursday, increasing their vote by 18%. In the other local by election in Govan, they trailed well behind, but they did increase their vote share by 1.4%. And believe me, that is real progress in Govan! :)
    Bobajob said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Bobajob said:

    Every last one - your number is A Made Up Number. There are no Scottish Tories and all of those zero are on here tonight. Extraordinary.

    It's the number who voted Tory in Scotland in 2010.

    Given turnout was 63.8% , the actual number of Scottish Tories is likely to be ~ 650,000
    Nonsense - there are the square root of zero Scottish Tories and every last one of those are on here tonight.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    fitalass said:

    Oh that is right, you don't believe I am Scottish or a Tory voter. The Conservatives just won a local by election in Scotland last Thursday, increasing their vote by 18%. In the other local by election in Govan, they trailed well behind, but they did increase their vote share by 1.4%. And believe me, that is real progress in Govan! :)

    Bobajob said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Bobajob said:

    Every last one - your number is A Made Up Number. There are no Scottish Tories and all of those zero are on here tonight. Extraordinary.

    It's the number who voted Tory in Scotland in 2010.

    Given turnout was 63.8% , the actual number of Scottish Tories is likely to be ~ 650,000
    Nonsense - there are the square root of zero Scottish Tories and every last one of those are on here tonight.
    A preposterous suggestion. There are precisely 0.00 Tories in Caledonia, and the full complement of those reside on PB.com every last zero of them.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    tim said:

    Roger said:

    "An officer has alleged that there was a stitch up involving Police Protection Officers to bring down Andrew Mitchell and toxify the Tories"

    I just don't believe it. I can believe one officer might jeopardize their career to damage a politician they've never met but not four. It's fantasy.


    I can
    Why Cameron sat on the evidence Is the question
    Politicians play no part in operational policing decisions.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited October 2013
    I live just a few miles from the most Tory village in my constituency. Just for you - The Wither Forecast (in Doric) from Aberdeenshire http://www.youtube.com/watch?list=RD02vDNN6NigGNM&v=RxAdpQ5-pXA
    And believe me, this Highland lassie really struggled to understand the locals when she first moved to Aberdeen, and I had only moved just under a 100 miles!
    Bobajob said:

    fitalass said:

    Oh that is right, you don't believe I am Scottish or a Tory voter. The Conservatives just won a local by election in Scotland last Thursday, increasing their vote by 18%. In the other local by election in Govan, they trailed well behind, but they did increase their vote share by 1.4%. And believe me, that is real progress in Govan! :)

    Bobajob said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Bobajob said:

    Every last one - your number is A Made Up Number. There are no Scottish Tories and all of those zero are on here tonight. Extraordinary.

    It's the number who voted Tory in Scotland in 2010.

    Given turnout was 63.8% , the actual number of Scottish Tories is likely to be ~ 650,000
    Nonsense - there are the square root of zero Scottish Tories and every last one of those are on here tonight.
    A preposterous suggestion. There are precisely 0.00 Tories in Caledonia, and the full complement of those reside on PB.com every last zero of them.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    So much for your 5% of East Europeans claiming unemployment benefits.

    'The details of the report are the first concrete assessment of the impact of mass migration on Britain and other countries from predominantly eastern European countries including Poland, Lithuania, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
    The report studied the numbers of unemployed EU citizens coming to Britain looking for work, showing that the number coming without jobs has risen by 73 per cent in three years.
    The report suggests that: “Between 2006 and 2012 there has been a steady increase of 42 per cent in the number of non-active EU migrants in the UK.'



  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    john_zims said:

    @Tim

    So much for your 5% of East Europeans claiming unemployment benefits.

    'The details of the report are the first concrete assessment of the impact of mass migration on Britain and other countries from predominantly eastern European countries including Poland, Lithuania, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
    The report studied the numbers of unemployed EU citizens coming to Britain looking for work, showing that the number coming without jobs has risen by 73 per cent in three years.
    The report suggests that: “Between 2006 and 2012 there has been a steady increase of 42 per cent in the number of non-active EU migrants in the UK.'



    The odd thing about the Telegraph write-up is that they have actual numbers for one thing - "non-active", which presumably includes other people who don't work by design like stay-at-home mums and students(?) - but only percentage increases on 2004 for the thing they affect to be actually talking about, which is unemployment. I don't see anything that would contradict the point you seem to think it refutes about lowish unemployment rates among immigrants from Eastern Europe.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    Garethofthevale said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    @Tim

    "Labour get 37% in the Euros and I'll fellate Jeremy Hunt"

    That's hard to swallow

    No it's not very likely at all. The problem Labour have is differential turnout, which hurts them badly in a PR system. At the last general election Labour won 47 seats to the Cons 21 in the North West but at the last Euro election the Cons got 423k votes to Labour's 337k

    It goes to show why all this talk of a Lib/Lab coalition bringing in PR without a referendum would be crazy. It would wipe away Labour's turnout advantage.
    These advantages and disadvantages come and go over time. In a decade or two Labour may turn out to be the victim of FPTP's various psychotic moods rather than the beneficiary.

    They should legislate for PR, but starting in 2035. They'll do a better job of designing the system if they're not worrying about the affect it'll have on their own jobs.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    Bobajob said:

    @Fitalass

    You are quite right to be sanguine - nobody cares about the Euro elections, which are the equivalent of a horse race staged in the pitch black in front of no-one. You might win, you might lose, but nobody notices.

    Right, it only affects minor trivialities like the laws that are passed at EU level instead of UK level, ie pretty much all the important ones.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edmundintokyo said:

    Bobajob said:

    @Fitalass

    You are quite right to be sanguine - nobody cares about the Euro elections, which are the equivalent of a horse race staged in the pitch black in front of no-one. You might win, you might lose, but nobody notices.

    Right, it only affects minor trivialities like the laws that are passed at EU level instead of UK level, ie pretty much all the important ones.
    But it is true that noone in the UK cares about it though. The European Parliament has hardly any democratic legitimacy.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    Neil said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Bobajob said:

    @Fitalass

    You are quite right to be sanguine - nobody cares about the Euro elections, which are the equivalent of a horse race staged in the pitch black in front of no-one. You might win, you might lose, but nobody notices.

    Right, it only affects minor trivialities like the laws that are passed at EU level instead of UK level, ie pretty much all the important ones.
    But it is true that noone in the UK cares about it though. The European Parliament has hardly any democratic legitimacy.
    Sure it has democratic legitimacy, it's directly elected in free and fair elections. If most British people want to ignore it and focus on an argument with a newspaper about a politician's dad or something that's up to them, but it doesn't affect the legitimacy of the parliament the ones who do bother elect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,519
    Caucus room being set up for announcement of next Australian Labor Party leader, announcement expected within next half hour
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,519
    edited October 2013
    Shorten wins in the end narrowly 52.02%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "According to the Sunday Times (£), a senior officer described how evidence was doctored against Andrew Mitchell, the former chief whip who resigned from Cabinet over the accusation that he launched a foul-mouthed rant at officers guarding Downing Street in September last year.

    In an article in the Sunday Times, the whistleblower states: "On the 18th September, 2012 Mr Mitchell had also insisted on being let out through the main gate. Following this [officer X] said to the other officers: 'Right, we can stitch him up'.""
    http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-10-13/report-police-insider-blows-whistle-on-plebgate/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunday Times says official approaches have been made from the Tory Party to Jeremy Browne to defect.

    He is mulling over the offer

    Interesting news. But why bother being in the LDs in the first place if you might defect to the Tories?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,519
    Full story here
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-13/bill-shorten-elected-labor-leader/5019116
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,112
    AndyJS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunday Times says official approaches have been made from the Tory Party to Jeremy Browne to defect.

    He is mulling over the offer

    Interesting news. But why bother being in the LDs in the first place if you might defect to the Tories?
    Young people make foolish decisions all the time ;-)
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Wow! That is a tremendous poll for the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru. At the last European Parliament election in 2009 the SNP/PC vote was 2.9%.

    So, would I be happy with a 72% rise in our vote? Darn right I would. Do I think that that will actually happen? Err... fraid not.


  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov / The Sunday Times results 11th-13th October - Con 34%, Lab 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%; APP -23
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Do you hear that....

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-24510283

    that is the sound of Labour Education policies spinning faster than than a top.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited October 2013
    Here are Survations's poll findings compared to the actual result in 2009:

    Lab 35% (+19)
    UKIP 22% (+6)
    Con 21% (-7)
    LD 11% (-3)
    Grn 5% (-3)
    SNP/PC 5% (+2)

    So, a 6 point swing from Con to UKIP during the last four and a half years. Sounds about right.

    And an 11 point swing from Lib Dem to Labour also sounds about right.

    Labour always have immense problems getting their vote out at Euro elections, so I think that the current prices are about right:

    Best prices - Euro 2014 - Most votes

    UKIP 5/4 (Ladbrokes)
    Lab 15/8 (Hills)
    Con 7/2 (various)
    LD 125/1

    There might be a little value in that CON price, but not enough to make the effort this far out from polling day.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Non- paywall plebgate:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/panewsfeeds/claims-mitchell-was-stitched-up-8877130.html
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    CarlottaVance said:

    It's the number who voted Tory in Scotland in 2010.

    Given turnout was 63.8% , the actual number of Scottish Tories is likely to be ~ 650,000

    That analysis is so wrong it is likely to be something written by seanT. Were you "tired" when you wrote that Carlotta...?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    dr_spyn said:

    that is the sound of Labour Education policies spinning faster than than a top.

    Even the Grauniad call is a "reversal" - but as TSE pointed out last night it's not a "u" turn - more of an "n" turn, first they were for it, then Gove championed it, so they were against it, now they are for it again......

    So Education & Welfare, two down.....what's next?

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Financier said:

    Latest YouGov / The Sunday Times results 11th-13th October - Con 34%, Lab 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%; APP -23

    Scottish Tory Surgers may want to have a look at the detailed tables for that poll. They'll be chanting FM Davidson next.

    On a more realistic level, I am beginning to suspect that their actually is a slight upturn in the Scottish Tory VI figures. The first such uptick for decades, if true. Could it be that the Better Together campaign is actually beginning to turn around Scottish Tory fortunes? Tis feasible, but as yet unproven. Although that was a tremendous Con Hold in the Tweeddale by-election on Thursday, thrashing the Lib Dems in a key LD/Con battlegound. Mark Senior had predicted a LD Gain, so there will be head scratching galore at Michael Moore's hoose this weekend.

    Anyhoo, lots more fun statistics in those YouGov tables, for example:

    "Do you think there are too many foreign players in the English Premier league, too few, or is the balance about right?"

    Too many 65%
    Too few 2%
    About right 13%

    "How likely or unlikely do you think it is that England will win the next football World Cup?"

    Total Likely 4%
    Total Unlikely 83%
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I see a superintendent in NSYard has confirmed Plebgate was a conspiracy to stitch up Mitchell. Paper not naming him.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    CarlottaVance said:

    dr_spyn said:

    that is the sound of Labour Education policies spinning faster than than a top.

    Even the Grauniad call is a "reversal" - but as TSE pointed out last night it's not a "u" turn - more of an "n" turn, first they were for it, then Gove championed it, so they were against it, now they are for it again......

    So Education & Welfare, two down.....what's next?

    I don't think this can be true. Surely the Blairites have been purged, Labour has lurched to the left, and Miliband is a pupppet of Unite? I'm pretty sure I've read all that here.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    YouGov: "Do you think it was right or wrong for the government to privatise the Royal Mail?" - Net responding "Right"

    London -27
    Rest of South -30
    Midlands/Wales -37
    North -41
    Scotland -43

    Great Britain -35

    I would love to see that question polled in Scottish Lib Dems seats, which are mostly in rural areas. I find it hard to think of a policy more designed to irritate voters in places like Lochinver, Kelso, Banchory and Dunoon. Well done Nick Clegg! John Thurso, Michael Moore, Robert Smith, Alan Reid et al must all be absolutely delighted.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/cfkj0aoeml/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-11-131013.pdf
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The comments on the Rachel Reeves Welfare u-turn are worth a read:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/12/labour-benefits-tories-labour-rachel-reeves-welfare

    Perhaps if she'd chosen a more sympathetic organ, like the Hon Tristram Hunt did with the Mail for his "reversal" she'd have met less hostility?
This discussion has been closed.