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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whoever the Dems choose to fight Trump at WH2020 will have to cope with the incumbent’s devastating nick name strategy

One of the things that the Elizabeth Warren DNA argument has highlighted is how successful Trump is at undermining anybody who is an opponent by the use of well thought out nicknames. These encapsulate the main negative and he uses the attack time and time again.

Read the full story here

grabcocque

But you can.

Remember when he had a massive tantrum because somebody called him "Fuckface von Clownstick" on Twitter?

Like most bullies, he don't like it up 'im.

(FIRST like your mum)

OldKingCole

There are places in the world where a fart is called a trump. Especially when talking to children!

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1052908327166988288

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1052909338723938304

edmundintokyo

grabcocque said:

But you can.

Remember when he had a massive tantrum because somebody called him "Fuckface von Clownstick" on Twitter?

Like most bullies, he don't like it up 'im.

(FIRST like your mum)

So the relevant betting question is which of the current Democratic field will call him Fuckface von Clownstick.

I think we're down to Biden and Warren, possibly Gillibrand.

daodao

Will it be like the last election, which can be summed up in a sentence, as follows:
"The crooked witch was trumped in the rustbelt."

rkrkrk

I think whoever the Dems pick has to have an optimistic message and offer more than just anti-Trump. A bold policy on healthcare is needed, perhaps offer to lower Medicare to 55?

RobD

Wrong.

(actually right, but I couldn't resist )

Nigel_Foremain

grabcocque said:

But you can.

Remember when he had a massive tantrum because somebody called him "Fuckface von Clownstick" on Twitter?

Like most bullies, he don't like it up 'im.

(FIRST like your mum)

It depends whether Stormy is wearing a strap-on

Nigel_Foremain

On a slightly less repulsive note, has anyone done a survey of British Leave voters to see how many of them approve of Trump?

Cyclefree

In response to @NigelForemain (fat) who said this:

"No, based upon common sense and my anecdotal experience, it has fallen because many Europeans thought we were a civilised decent tolerant country to be admired. Then they realised that there was a fair possibility that 52% of the British people were probably xenophobes, making us not a country to be admired at all, and where it didn't matter how useful your skills or labour are, you are simply not welcome because you have a funny accent. Genuine patriots should be ashamed."

Certainly there have been some Leave voters who were xenophobic. But I think this misses a bigger point.

The UK has I think about 12% of the EU's population and has had, I remember reading, circa 40% of the free movement. In short, FoM has disproportionately affected Britain in terms of people arriving. That is a very significant impact, both good and bad.

If other countries had had a similar impact where in a relatively short period there was an influx of people then you would see a reaction. And we have seen that: in Italy and in Sweden and Germany, for instance. And the politicians have reacted: in Italy they have closed their ports and there has been talk of making lists of Romas. France has closed its border to migrants coming from Italy. In Germany, the AfD has made gains and the Germans are now being stricter about whom they let in. In Sweden, the Swedish Democrats made gains. And so on.

In Britain the reaction was similar: to want to have some sort of control over who came. It's a bit rich of other countries to criticise the British reaction when the reality is that people in all countries where there has been a significant movement of people have said enough and politicians have had to react. The difference is that in Britain that reaction, at least in recent years, has been to fellow Europeans moving here but as the video which someone posted shows, a lot people were more bothered about people coming from outside the EU.

Brexit has been a reaction to this change. It has unleashed or uncovered some unpleasant xenophobia, undoubtedly. But we have not seen, thank God, the growth of parties with explicitly fascist or Nazi antecedents. There is nothing specifically unique about the British reaction and in some ways it is not as bad as what we have seen in the political sphere in other countries.

TO BE CONTINUED

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1052915854332108802

Cyclefree

PART TWO



I like John Major and think his recent criticisms have some force.

But both he and the bastards who opposed him missed the most important thing about the Maastricht Treaty. It was not the creation of the euro which mattered but the creation of European citizenship because that was the point at which British people no longer had any special privilege in the country of their birth. Being a British person in Britain was no different to being a French person in Britain. Many liked this. Many did not. Not necessarily because of hating Johnny Foreigner but because it marks a fundamental change to what it meant to be a British citizen and the relationship between the citizen and the state.

And that change was not really properly discussed or sold or explained to the British people in a way which really got their consent. FoM was presented as if it was just about being able to buy a property in Tuscany or allowing Arabella to go and work in Paris for a bit or being able to hire a willing Eastern European to clean our homes or whatever.

That was a great failing and the failure to do that and concentrate only on the economics of the change and not the human element of what it meant to be a British citizen, what it meant to be a European citizen, what this meant for people's feelings about their nation, about their nationality, about the bonds of mutual of obligation and duties and rights is, in part, why the referendum was lost in 2016 and why we are where we are.

"It's not just about the economy, stupid!"

Richard_Nabavi

Elizabeth Warren is toast, surely. Lord only knows what she was trying to achieve with that DNA test, but whatever it was, it has backfired big-time. It has just served to make Trump look right, and make her look petulant, silly, defensive and probably dishonest.

In any case she's the wrong candidate to appeal to the key voters the Dems need to win back, in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The Dems need to focus entirely on electability in the key states. They are going to lose again if they indulge themselves with a candidate whose appeal lies mostly in California and the north-east.

TOPPING

Cyclefree said:

PART TWO



I like John Major and think his recent criticisms have some force.

But both he and the bastards who opposed him missed the most important thing about the Maastricht Treaty. It was not the creation of the euro which mattered but the creation of European citizenship because that was the point at which British people no longer had any special privilege in the country of their birth. Being a British person in Britain was no different to being a French person in Britain. Many liked this. Many did not. Not necessarily because of hating Johnny Foreigner but because it marks a fundamental change to what it meant to be a British citizen and the relationship between the citizen and the state.

And that change was not really properly discussed or sold or explained to the British people in a way which really got their consent. FoM was presented as if it was just about being able to buy a property in Tuscany or allowing Arabella to go and work in Paris for a bit.

That was a great failing and the failure to do that and concentrate only on the economics of the change and not the human element of what it meant to be a British citizen, what it meant to be a European citizen, what this meant for people's feelings about their nation, about their nationality, about the bonds of mutual of obligation and duties and rights is, in part, why the referendum was lost in 2016 and why we are where we are.

"It's not just about the economy, stupid!"

Nah. Most people (certainly the balance of those who gave Leave a majority) who object to foreigners don't give a stuff about the Portugese bakery or Polish supermarket. They mean non-EU foreigners as they don't look or behave like us but, as the option to stop that type of immigration was not available, they chose the nearest target they could. And here we are.

TGOHF

Nigel_Foremain said:

On a slightly less repulsive note, has anyone done a survey of British Leave voters to see how many of them approve of Trump?

Nigel my dear old thing - if you are in both camps then it's fine - nobody will hold it against you.

daodao

Richard_Nabavi said:

Elizabeth Warren is toast, surely. Lord only knows what she was trying to achieve with that DNA test, but whatever it was, it has backfired big-time. It has just served to make Trump look right, and make her look petulant, silly, defensive and probably dishonest.

In any case she's the wrong candidate to appeal to the key voters the Dems need to win back, in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The Dems need to focus entirely on electability in the key states. They are going to lose again if they indulge themselves with a candidate whose appeal lies mostly in California and the north-east.

All being well, the GOP will trump the donkey again in the rustbelt in 2020.

Cyclefree

Anyway, in some good-ish news for me, I do not need a shoulder operation, which is big relief. I have apparently badly inflamed the long head of my biceps tendon and the area around it. God knows how. Probably excessive gardening.

So rest is prescribed. And painkillers. And intensive physio to strengthen all my other arm muscles to give my poor biceps a rest. It will take time which is a bore. But at least in time it should get better.

The only trouble is I have just received a big box from JParkers today of several hundred bulbs which need planting - and the weather is just right for this. So. What to do? Dig with my left hand, I suppose - or try and bribe some nice fit young man to do this for me.

And thank you to all who sent me your good wishes yesterday. Very much appreciated.

geoffw

TGOHF said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

On a slightly less repulsive note, has anyone done a survey of British Leave voters to see how many of them approve of Trump?

Nigel my dear old thing - if you are in both camps then it's fine - nobody will hold it against you.

Nigel is Fo(r)Remain.

geoffw

Cyclefree said:

Anyway, in some good-ish news for me, I do not need a shoulder operation, which is big relief. I have apparently badly inflamed the long head of my biceps tendon and the area around it. God knows how. Probably excessive gardening.

So rest is prescribed. And painkillers. And intensive physio to strengthen all my other arm muscles to give my poor biceps a rest. It will take time which is a bore. But at least in time it should get better.

The only trouble is I have just received a big box from JParkers today of several hundred bulbs which need planting - and the weather is just right for this. So. What to do? Dig with my left hand, I suppose - or try and bribe some nice fit young man to do this for me.

And thank you to all who sent me your good wishes yesterday. Very much appreciated.

Bit sexist of you. Fit young women make good gardeners too.

JohnRussell

Cyclefree said:

In response to @NigelForemain (fat) who said this:

"No, based upon common sense and my anecdotal experience, it has fallen because many Europeans thought we were a civilised decent tolerant country to be admired. Then they realised that there was a fair possibility that 52% of the British people were probably xenophobes, making us not a country to be admired at all, and where it didn't matter how useful your skills or labour are, you are simply not welcome because you have a funny accent. Genuine patriots should be ashamed."

Certainly there have been some Leave voters who were xenophobic. But I think this misses a bigger point.

The UK has I think about 12% of the EU's population and has had, I remember reading, circa 40% of the free movement. In short, FoM has disproportionately affected Britain in terms of people arriving. That is a very significant impact, both good and bad.

If other countries had had a similar impact where in a relatively short period there was an influx of people then you would see a reaction. And we have seen that: in Italy and in Sweden and Germany, for instance. And the politicians have reacted: in Italy they have closed their ports and there has been talk of making lists of Romas. France has closed its border to migrants coming from Italy. In Germany, the AfD has made gains and the Germans are now being stricter about whom they let in. In Sweden, the Swedish Democrats made gains. And so on.

In Britain the reaction was similar: to want to have some sort of control over who came. It's a bit rich of other countries to criticise the British reaction when the reality is that people in all countries where there has been a significant movement of people have said enough and politicians have had to react. The difference is that in Britain that reaction, at least in recent years, has been to fellow Europeans moving here but as the video which someone posted shows, a lot people were more bothered about people coming from outside the EU.

Brexit has been a reaction to this change. It has unleashed or uncovered some unpleasant xenophobia, undoubtedly. But we have not seen, thank God, the growth of parties with explicitly fascist or Nazi antecedents. There is nothing specifically unique about the British reaction and in some ways it is not as bad as what we have seen in the political sphere in other countries.

TO BE CONTINUED

If the communities that Eastern Europeans moved into in their hundreds of thousands over the last 14 years were so terribly hostile, why did it take the referendum result for them to feel it?

Scott_P

Cyclefree said:

The only trouble is I have just received a big box from JParkers today of several hundred bulbs which need planting - and the weather is just right for this. So. What to do? Dig with my left hand, I suppose - or try and bribe some nice fit young man to do this for me.

Do you not have one of these?

https://www.sneeboer.co.uk/bulb-planter.html

eek

Richard_Nabavi said:

Elizabeth Warren is toast, surely. Lord only knows what she was trying to achieve with that DNA test, but whatever it was, it has backfired big-time. It has just served to make Trump look right, and make her look petulant, silly, defensive and probably dishonest.

In any case she's the wrong candidate to appeal to the key voters the Dems need to win back, in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The Dems need to focus entirely on electability in the key states. They are going to lose again if they indulge themselves with a candidate whose appeal lies mostly in California and the north-east.

Thinking about it - given that California is one of the early states this time around I suspect they've already lost.

Cyclefree

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

PART TWO



I like John Major and think his recent criticisms have some force.

But both he and the bastards who opposed him missed the most important thing about the Maastricht Treaty. It was not the creation of the euro which mattered but the creation of European citizenship because that was the point at which British people no longer had any special privilege in the country of their birth. Being a British person in Britain was no different to being a French person in Britain. Many liked this. Many did not. Not necessarily because of hating Johnny Foreigner but because it marks a fundamental change to what it meant to be a British citizen and the relationship between the citizen and the state.

That was a great failing and the failure to do that and concentrate only on the economics of the change and not the human element of what it meant to be a British citizen, what it meant to be a European citizen, what this meant for people's feelings about their nation, about their nationality, about the bonds of mutual of obligation and duties and rights is, in part, why the referendum was lost in 2016 and why we are where we are.

"It's not just about the economy, stupid!"

Nah. Most people (certainly the balance of those who gave Leave a majority) who object to foreigners don't give a stuff about the Portugese bakery or Polish supermarket. They mean non-EU foreigners as they don't look or behave like us but, as the option to stop that type of immigration was not available, they chose the nearest target they could. And here we are.

Yes - that's what I said in my first part. And have said before. FoM would never have been as much of an issue if in the preceding years there had not been virtually unlimited immigration from all over the place with the Blair government doing nothing to control it and nothing to deport even those with no right to be here. FoM was the straw which broke the camel's back. Plus people saw what had happened in Germany and felt that if the external borders were not going to be policed then the British ones had better be.

And it's not just a question of not looking like us because a lot of us do in fact look like people from outside the EU. The rise in terrorism and the problems of integration of some minorities are inextricably linked with the concerns people had about governments' inability or unwillingness to try and control immigration. Britain has not been unique in reacting in this way. There has been this reaction right across pretty much every country in the EU from Hungary to Denmark to France to Sweden and Italy and Greece and Germany. Brexit is the form it has taken in Britain. Sadly, because it will do nothing about resolving those issues.

Cyclefree

Scott_P said:

Cyclefree said:

The only trouble is I have just received a big box from JParkers today of several hundred bulbs which need planting - and the weather is just right for this. So. What to do? Dig with my left hand, I suppose - or try and bribe some nice fit young man to do this for me.

Do you not have one of these?

https://www.sneeboer.co.uk/bulb-planter.html

No bloody good in clay. Tried it once. Hopeless.

eek

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

PART TWO



I like John Major and think his recent criticisms have some force.

But both he and the bastards who opposed him missed the most important thing about the Maastricht Treaty. It was not the creation of the euro which mattered but the creation of European citizenship because that was the point at which British people no longer had any special privilege in the country of their birth. Being a British person in Britain was no different to being a French person in Britain. Many liked this. Many did not. Not necessarily because of hating Johnny Foreigner but because it marks a fundamental change to what it meant to be a British citizen and the relationship between the citizen and the state.

And that change was not really properly discussed or sold or explained to the British people in a way which really got their consent. FoM was presented as if it was just about being able to buy a property in Tuscany or allowing Arabella to go and work in Paris for a bit.

That was a great failing and the failure to do that and concentrate only on the economics of the change and not the human element of what it meant to be a British citizen, what it meant to be a European citizen, what this meant for people's feelings about their nation, about their nationality, about the bonds of mutual of obligation and duties and rights is, in part, why the referendum was lost in 2016 and why we are where we are.

"It's not just about the economy, stupid!"

Nah. Most people (certainly the balance of those who gave Leave a majority) who object to foreigners don't give a stuff about the Portugese bakery or Polish supermarket. They mean non-EU foreigners as they don't look or behave like us but, as the option to stop that type of immigration was not available, they chose the nearest target they could. And here we are.

I'm not so sure. As I've commented in the past the time I knew Leave had won was on lunchtime on Thursday when a friend who was at what should have been a very quiet polling station said she had seen more people in 1 hour than was usual for the entire day. And that was driven by the fact their local new Aldi had all eastern european staff...

Cyclefree

geoffw said:

Cyclefree said:

Anyway, in some good-ish news for me, I do not need a shoulder operation, which is big relief. I have apparently badly inflamed the long head of my biceps tendon and the area around it. God knows how. Probably excessive gardening.

So rest is prescribed. And painkillers. And intensive physio to strengthen all my other arm muscles to give my poor biceps a rest. It will take time which is a bore. But at least in time it should get better.

The only trouble is I have just received a big box from JParkers today of several hundred bulbs which need planting - and the weather is just right for this. So. What to do? Dig with my left hand, I suppose - or try and bribe some nice fit young man to do this for me.

And thank you to all who sent me your good wishes yesterday. Very much appreciated.

Bit sexist of you. Fit young women make good gardeners too.

Yes - but are perhaps not as nice for me to look at.......

SouthamObserver

I was in Boston earlier this week. The expectation among most of those I spoke to was that Trump would lose the popular vote once more but win the election. I imagine they are right. America does not feel like a country that is even close to healing yet. The interesting bit will be what happens in the House and Senate votes that year. For the House the Republicans still have two more years to gerrymander and suppress. What a fine bunch they are. At some point, though, they will lose the levers of power - and when they do they may find they never get them back again.

OldKingCole

Cyclefree said:

Anyway, in some good-ish news for me, I do not need a shoulder operation, which is big relief. I have apparently badly inflamed the long head of my biceps tendon and the area around it. God knows how. Probably excessive gardening.

So rest is prescribed. And painkillers. And intensive physio to strengthen all my other arm muscles to give my poor biceps a rest. It will take time which is a bore. But at least in time it should get better.

The only trouble is I have just received a big box from JParkers today of several hundred bulbs which need planting - and the weather is just right for this. So. What to do? Dig with my left hand, I suppose - or try and bribe some nice fit young man to do this for me.

And thank you to all who sent me your good wishes yesterday. Very much appreciated.

Is there not some fit young person (or do you mean fit in the ‘other’ sense), male or female trying to make (and quite possibly making) a good living doing jobbing gardening in your area? There are quite a few round here, some of whom have decided that commuting to London for three hours a day just isn’t worth it.

But it’s good to hear that you don’t need surgery. A good physiotherapist is often much more useful than a surgeon.
I wish you well.

David_Evershed

Guido Fawkes makes a strong point that the Irish government and the Eu have said there will not be a hard border under any circumstances including a no deal Brexit.

Given that the UK agrees, why the fuss over the Irish border? Lets have a WTO Exit in March 2019.

See
https://order-order.com/2018/10/18/juncker-varadkar-guaranteed-irish-parliament-no-hard-border-event-no-deal/

TOPPING

fpt

YBarddCwsc said:

I give you credit for saying we must leave. I happen to agree.

I personally have no difficulty with the idea of another referendum to clarify the nature of the Leave.

I have no difficulty with Remain being on the ballot of a second referendum.

That is not generosity. It is because I have absolute confidence that Remain will fuck the opportunity up again.

The problem is an economy is not a short item on a rolling news channel. Look at (some of!) the forecasts made prior to the referendum. Many are playing out (of course I accept that economists predicted 10 out of the last six recessions) but in an economic, not snapchat time frame.

No one has the time to listen to, still less take time to understand the machinations of the savings rate or FDI or NAIRU or whatever. And they just want it all to go away and are under the impression that they are having to repeat themselves and hence they most likely will repeat themselves.

Plus what if Remain did win? Then what? We have trashed our relationship with the EU as a member and the best we can hope for is to become a respected third country with the concomitant diminution in our well-being that, as stated above, no one wants to take the time to understand.

David_Evershed

Cyclefree said:

Scott_P said:

Cyclefree said:

The only trouble is I have just received a big box from JParkers today of several hundred bulbs which need planting - and the weather is just right for this. So. What to do? Dig with my left hand, I suppose - or try and bribe some nice fit young man to do this for me.

Do you not have one of these?

https://www.sneeboer.co.uk/bulb-planter.html

No bloody good in clay. Tried it once. Hopeless.

Agreed. I too have clay soil. The ground is too hard to use the bulb planter.

OldKingCole

SouthamObserver said:

I was in Boston earlier this week. The expectation among most of those I spoke to was that Trump would lose the popular vote once more but win the election. I imagine they are right. America does not feel like a country that is even close to healing yet. The interesting bit will be what happens in the House and Senate votes that year. For the House the Republicans still have two more years to gerrymander and suppress. What a fine bunch they are. At some point, though, they will lose the levers of power - and when they do they may find they never get them back again.

'For the House the Republicans still have two more years to gerrymander and suppress.’

Other way round, surely. The Dems will win the House, (I hope, anyway) but won’t take the Senate.

Charles

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

PART TWO



I like John Major and think his recent criticisms have some force.

But both he and the bastards who opposed him missed the most important thing about the Maastricht Treaty. It was not the creation of the euro which mattered but the creation of European citizenship because that was the point at which British people no longer had any special privilege in the country of their birth. Being a British person in Britain was no different to being a French person in Britain. Many liked this. Many did not. Not necessarily because of hating Johnny Foreigner but because it marks a fundamental change to what it meant to be a British citizen and the relationship between the citizen and the state.

And that change was not really properly discussed or sold or explained to the British people in a way which really got their consent. FoM was presented as if it was just about being able to buy a property in Tuscany or allowing Arabella to go and work in Paris for a bit.

That was a great failing and the failure to do that and concentrate only on the economics of the change and not the human element of what it meant to be a British citizen, what it meant to be a European citizen, what this meant for people's feelings about their nation, about their nationality, about the bonds of mutual of obligation and duties and rights is, in part, why the referendum was lost in 2016 and why we are where we are.

"It's not just about the economy, stupid!"

Nah. Most people (certainly the balance of those who gave Leave a majority) who object to foreigners don't give a stuff about the Portugese bakery or Polish supermarket. They mean non-EU foreigners as they don't look or behave like us but, as the option to stop that type of immigration was not available, they chose the nearest target they could. And here we are.

Nah. It’s not about colour it’s about making a contribution and integration

The Polish plumber, the Bulgarian builder the pretty Italian girl in Pret (TM @rcs1000 ) are all ok. The Romanian beggar or big issue salesman is less welcome*

Similarly (except for a small racist minority) the Gujarati family who run the local pharmacy are ok as is the black guy who works in the garage or the Bangladeshi waiters in the local Indian**. The Yardie gangster or the woman in the niqab are not favoured.

If you look at the stats the Brits are welcoming and tolerant. Much more so than Europe

* I know these are small numbers but they are not perceived as such

** I know, I know

RobD

SouthamObserver said:

I was in Boston earlier this week. The expectation among most of those I spoke to was that Trump would lose the popular vote once more but win the election. I imagine they are right. America does not feel like a country that is even close to healing yet. The interesting bit will be what happens in the House and Senate votes that year. For the House the Republicans still have two more years to gerrymander and suppress. What a fine bunch they are. At some point, though, they will lose the levers of power - and when they do they may find they never get them back again.

As if the Democrats don’t gerrymander. Seriously.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/28/how-maryland-democrats-pulled-off-their-aggressive-gerrymander/

Cyclefree

OldKingCole said:

Cyclefree said:

Anyway, in some good-ish news for me, I do not need a shoulder operation, which is big relief. I have apparently badly inflamed the long head of my biceps tendon and the area around it. God knows how. Probably excessive gardening.

So rest is prescribed. And painkillers. And intensive physio to strengthen all my other arm muscles to give my poor biceps a rest. It will take time which is a bore. But at least in time it should get better.

The only trouble is I have just received a big box from JParkers today of several hundred bulbs which need planting - and the weather is just right for this. So. What to do? Dig with my left hand, I suppose - or try and bribe some nice fit young man to do this for me.

And thank you to all who sent me your good wishes yesterday. Very much appreciated.

Is there not some fit young person (or do you mean fit in the ‘other’ sense), male or female trying to make (and quite possibly making) a good living doing jobbing gardening in your area? There are quite a few round here, some of whom have decided that commuting to London for three hours a day just isn’t worth it.

But it’s good to hear that you don’t need surgery. A good physiotherapist is often much more useful than a surgeon.
I wish you well.

I may well have to look for someone like that to help. I feel torn because I really enjoy doing this and then mulching and deadheading and generally preparing the garden for winter and making space for the winter flowering plants to do their stuff. There is something magical about being outside in the autumn light.

Plus it gives me a chance to look at the garden afresh and think about where I might want to make changes next year, what's worked, what hasn't. So getting someone else to do it is like outsourcing one activity which brings me great joy. There is scarcely a day in the year when I don't do something outside.

grabcocque

Oh my, that Penny Mordaunt clip though.

You can see the cognitive dissonance congealing in her brain in real time. It's about half of the way through she realizes she's lying, and starts stumbling over words as she begins to doubt her own Breality.

Richard_Nabavi

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

I was in Boston earlier this week. The expectation among most of those I spoke to was that Trump would lose the popular vote once more but win the election. I imagine they are right. America does not feel like a country that is even close to healing yet. The interesting bit will be what happens in the House and Senate votes that year. For the House the Republicans still have two more years to gerrymander and suppress. What a fine bunch they are. At some point, though, they will lose the levers of power - and when they do they may find they never get them back again.

As if the Democrats don’t gerrymander. Seriously.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/28/how-maryland-democrats-pulled-off-their-aggressive-gerrymander/

That's liberal, progressive gerrymandering, so quite different from the reactionary, racist gerrymandering of the GOP. Do keep up.

Pulpstar

Pocahontas 2020

David_Evershed

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1052909338723938304

The reason why Leadsom is not going to resign - so she can help to manage the Brexit business through parliament as Leader of the House. Could be a fight between her and Bercow.

YBarddCwsc

TOPPING said:

Plus what if Remain did win? Then what? We have trashed our relationship with the EU as a member and the best we can hope for is to become a respected third country with the concomitant diminution in our well-being that, as stated above, no one wants to take the time to understand.

Re-posting on the new thread also..

I agree with that. What has been done cannot be undone.

DavidL

I think of all his nicknames Pocahontas has been my favourite. It's a career ending monkier for Warren making her look like a fantasist, trivial and entirely unserious, all at the same time.

Trump is an appalling individual: venal, immoral, dishonest and more than a bit of a fantasist himself but he's got this politics stuff nailed. His speech about Blasey Ford's "one can of beer" and "I don't remember" was an absolutely devastating use of rhetoric, just brutal. He is always capable of self destruction but failing that he is going to be very, very hard to beat.

grabcocque

David_Evershed said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1052909338723938304

The reason why Leadsom is not going to resign - so she can help to manage the Brexit business through parliament as Leader of the House. Could be a fight between her and Bercow.

A Bercow, let's not forget who (a) hates the Tories, (b) is retiring soon so has (c) nothing to lose from (d) kicking the Tories hard and often in their exquisite floppily-doppilies.

I suspect the motion will be about as un-amendable as I am un-fat.

TOPPING

Charles said:

Nah. It’s not about colour it’s about making a contribution and integration

The Polish plumber, the Bulgarian builder the pretty Italian girl in Pret (TM @rcs1000 ) are all ok. The Romanian beggar or big issue salesman is less welcome*

Similarly (except for a small racist minority) the Gujarati family who run the local pharmacy are ok as is the black guy who works in the garage or the Bangladeshi waiters in the local Indian**. The Yardie gangster or the woman in the niqab are not favoured.

If you look at the stats the Brits are welcoming and tolerant. Much more so than Europe

* I know these are small numbers but they are not perceived as such

** I know, I know

You make one good point. "they are small numbers but are not perceived as such". Exactly! Actually, how many Romanian big issue sellers are there? Women in niqabs? Housewives? Mothers? The former is a trivial number. The latter more but since when are we ok discriminating against stay at home parents? Do we include @JosiasJessop also?

How about Sephardi Jews in Stamford Hill? They sure as hell aren't integrating.

The point is precisely that it is the perception and not only that, but the group of people you identified are not here legally as it is on the one hand, or are just "different" on the other.

And for that we got Brexit.

RobD

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

I was in Boston earlier this week. The expectation among most of those I spoke to was that Trump would lose the popular vote once more but win the election. I imagine they are right. America does not feel like a country that is even close to healing yet. The interesting bit will be what happens in the House and Senate votes that year. For the House the Republicans still have two more years to gerrymander and suppress. What a fine bunch they are. At some point, though, they will lose the levers of power - and when they do they may find they never get them back again.

As if the Democrats don’t gerrymander. Seriously.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/28/how-maryland-democrats-pulled-off-their-aggressive-gerrymander/

That's liberal, progressive gerrymandering, so quite different from the reactionary, racist gerrymandering of the GOP. Do keep up.

I have forwarded this to our friends at the boundary commission. I’m sure they can use the same tricks to help us in a few key marginals.

SouthamObserver

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

I was in Boston earlier this week. The expectation among most of those I spoke to was that Trump would lose the popular vote once more but win the election. I imagine they are right. America does not feel like a country that is even close to healing yet. The interesting bit will be what happens in the House and Senate votes that year. For the House the Republicans still have two more years to gerrymander and suppress. What a fine bunch they are. At some point, though, they will lose the levers of power - and when they do they may find they never get them back again.

As if the Democrats don’t gerrymander. Seriously.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/28/how-maryland-democrats-pulled-off-their-aggressive-gerrymander/

That's precisely my point. I would expect the next Democrat controlled House and Senate to increase the number of justices on the Supreme Court for starters - and to look at what can be done about voter suppression, at least, at a federal level. Then there's impeachment ...

TOPPING

David_Evershed said:

Guido Fawkes makes a strong point that the Irish government and the Eu have said there will not be a hard border under any circumstances including a no deal Brexit.

Given that the UK agrees, why the fuss over the Irish border? Lets have a WTO Exit in March 2019.

See
https://order-order.com/2018/10/18/juncker-varadkar-guaranteed-irish-parliament-no-hard-border-event-no-deal/

JESUS FUCKING CHRIST. They don't want a border but they might be forced into one via WTO MFN by a third country.

RobD

TOPPING said:

David_Evershed said:

Guido Fawkes makes a strong point that the Irish government and the Eu have said there will not be a hard border under any circumstances including a no deal Brexit.

Given that the UK agrees, why the fuss over the Irish border? Lets have a WTO Exit in March 2019.

See
https://order-order.com/2018/10/18/juncker-varadkar-guaranteed-irish-parliament-no-hard-border-event-no-deal/

JESUS FUCKING CHRIST. They don't want a border but they might be forced into one via WTO MFN by a third country.

That sounds like a particular circumstance to me.

OldKingCole

Cyclefree said:

OldKingCole said:

Cyclefree said:

Anyway, in some good-ish news for me, I do not need a shoulder operation, which is big relief. I have apparently badly inflamed the long head of my biceps tendon and the area around it. God knows how. Probably excessive gardening.

So rest is prescribed. And painkillers. And intensive physio to strengthen all my other arm muscles to give my poor biceps a rest. It will take time which is a bore. But at least in time it should get better.

The only trouble is I have just received a big box from JParkers today of several hundred bulbs which need planting - and the weather is just right for this. So. What to do? Dig with my left hand, I suppose - or try and bribe some nice fit young man to do this for me.

And thank you to all who sent me your good wishes yesterday. Very much appreciated.

Is there not some fit young person (or do you mean fit in the ‘other’ sense), male or female trying to make (and quite possibly making) a good living doing jobbing gardening in your area? There are quite a few round here, some of whom have decided that commuting to London for three hours a day just isn’t worth it.

But it’s good to hear that you don’t need surgery. A good physiotherapist is often much more useful than a surgeon.
I wish you well.

I may well have to look for someone like that to help. I feel torn because I really enjoy doing this and then mulching and deadheading and generally preparing the garden for winter and making space for the winter flowering plants to do their stuff. There is something magical about being outside in the autumn light.

Plus it gives me a chance to look at the garden afresh and think about where I might want to make changes next year, what's worked, what hasn't. So getting someone else to do it is like outsourcing one activity which brings me great joy. There is scarcely a day in the year when I don't do something outside.

The big advantage that someone who has dropped out of the rat race has is that they may well be more willing to make useful suggestions. You don’t, do you, want to be the ‘lady in the big hat who tells the man where to dig’; you want to be part of it.

RobD

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

I was in Boston earlier this week. The expectation among most of those I spoke to was that Trump would lose the popular vote once more but win the election. I imagine they are right. America does not feel like a country that is even close to healing yet. The interesting bit will be what happens in the House and Senate votes that year. For the House the Republicans still have two more years to gerrymander and suppress. What a fine bunch they are. At some point, though, they will lose the levers of power - and when they do they may find they never get them back again.

As if the Democrats don’t gerrymander. Seriously.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/28/how-maryland-democrats-pulled-off-their-aggressive-gerrymander/

That's precisely my point. I would expect the next Democrat controlled House and Senate to increase the number of justices on the Supreme Court for starters - and to look at what can be done about voter suppression, at least, at a federal level. Then there's impeachment ...

They are going to stuff the supreme court? And they are supposed to be the good guys...

anothernick

grabcocque said:

David_Evershed said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1052909338723938304

The reason why Leadsom is not going to resign - so she can help to manage the Brexit business through parliament as Leader of the House. Could be a fight between her and Bercow.

A Bercow, let's not forget who (a) hates the Tories, (b) is retiring soon so has (c) nothing to lose from (d) kicking the Tories hard and often in their exquisite floppily-doppilies.

I suspect the motion will be about as un-amendable as I am un-fat.

😂😂😂😂

Bercow hates Brexit as well.

grabcocque

This is some tea right here

https://twitter.com/HackneyAbbott/status/1052581899699449856

Richard_Nabavi

grabcocque said:

David_Evershed said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1052909338723938304

The reason why Leadsom is not going to resign - so she can help to manage the Brexit business through parliament as Leader of the House. Could be a fight between her and Bercow.

A Bercow, let's not forget who (a) hates the Tories, (b) is retiring soon so has (b) nothing to lose from kicking them hard in their nethers.

I suspect the motion will be about as un-amendable as I am un-fat.

Yes and no. As the government memo on the subject points out:

Amendments to the motion will not automatically alter the text of the Withdrawal Agreement or Future Framework, which will both have been agreed at the international level between the UK and the EU. ...
...
.. if amendments were passed which purported to offer approval, but only subject to changes being made to the text of either the Withdrawal Agreement or the Future Framework, this would in effect amount to parliament not approving the documents that were put to it.

In other words, yes, you can amend it, but ultimately it's take it or leave it, and leave it by default means exit with no deal. Which is pretty obvious, really.

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/procedure/2017-19/Memorandum-from-the-Government-on-parliamentary-approval-of-the-Withdrawal-Agreement.pdf

OldKingCole

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

Nah. It’s not about colour it’s about making a contribution and integration

The Polish plumber, the Bulgarian builder the pretty Italian girl in Pret (TM @rcs1000 ) are all ok. The Romanian beggar or big issue salesman is less welcome*

Similarly (except for a small racist minority) the Gujarati family who run the local pharmacy are ok as is the black guy who works in the garage or the Bangladeshi waiters in the local Indian**. The Yardie gangster or the woman in the niqab are not favoured.

If you look at the stats the Brits are welcoming and tolerant. Much more so than Europe

* I know these are small numbers but they are not perceived as such

** I know, I know

You make one good point. "they are small numbers but are not perceived as such". Exactly! Actually, how many Romanian big issue sellers are there? Women in niqabs? Housewives? Mothers? The former is a trivial number. The latter more but since when are we ok discriminating against stay at home parents? Do we include @JosiasJessop also?

How about Sephardi Jews in Stamford Hill? They sure as hell aren't integrating.

The point is precisely that it is the perception and not only that, but the group of people you identified are not here legally as it is on the one hand, or are just "different" on the other.

And for that we got Brexit.

Dare I say it, but one doesn’t fancy the result of complaining about Sephardi Jews in Stamford Hill!

RobD

Richard_Nabavi said:

grabcocque said:

David_Evershed said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1052909338723938304

The reason why Leadsom is not going to resign - so she can help to manage the Brexit business through parliament as Leader of the House. Could be a fight between her and Bercow.

A Bercow, let's not forget who (a) hates the Tories, (b) is retiring soon so has (b) nothing to lose from kicking them hard in their nethers.

I suspect the motion will be about as un-amendable as I am un-fat.

Yes and no. As the government memo on the subject points out:

Amendments to the motion will not automatically alter the text of the Withdrawal Agreement or Future Framework, which will both have been agreed at the international level between the UK and the EU. ...
...
.. if amendments were passed which purported to offer approval, but only subject to changes being made to the text of either the Withdrawal Agreement or the Future Framework, this would in effect amount to parliament not approving the documents that were put to it.


In other words, yes, you can amend it, but ultimately it's take it or leave it, and leave it by default means exit with no deal. Which is pretty obvious, really.

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/procedure/2017-19/Memorandum-from-the-Government-on-parliamentary-approval-of-the-Withdrawal-Agreement.pdf

Quite right, too. The executive has sole prerogative to negotiate treaties.

Cyclefree

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

Nah. It’s not about colour it’s about making a contribution and integration

The Polish plumber, the Bulgarian builder the pretty Italian girl in Pret (TM @rcs1000 ) are all ok. The Romanian beggar or big issue salesman is less welcome*

Similarly (except for a small racist minority) the Gujarati family who run the local pharmacy are ok as is the black guy who works in the garage or the Bangladeshi waiters in the local Indian**. The Yardie gangster or the woman in the niqab are not favoured.

If you look at the stats the Brits are welcoming and tolerant. Much more so than Europe

* I know these are small numbers but they are not perceived as such

** I know, I know

You make one good point. "they are small numbers but are not perceived as such". Exactly! Actually, how many Romanian big issue sellers are there? Women in niqabs? Housewives? Mothers? The former is a trivial number. The latter more but since when are we ok discriminating against stay at home parents? Do we include @JosiasJessop also?

How about Sephardi Jews in Stamford Hill? They sure as hell aren't integrating.

The point is precisely that it is the perception and not only that, but the group of people you identified are not here legally as it is on the one hand, or are just "different" on the other.

And for that we got Brexit.

If it was a small number who should not have been here then the government should have done something about it to avoid precisely the problem which has been created, that this was perceived to be a bigger problem than it was for which an unwieldy hammer (Brexit) was needed.

Instead the perception was created that anyone raising concerns was a beyond the pale racist, that governments were failing in one of their basic duties and that they would not listen to voters' concerns and act on them. Disastrous because the voters then - eventually - pulled the only lever they were given. The wrong one, almost certainly.

And even small groups who behave badly can cause real problems. There may not be that many women in niqabs but there are more than there were and it raises the question of how many girls are suffering FGM or being forced into unwanted marriages or being abused in other ways etc. All of this was foreseeable and could and should have been dealt with a long time ago.

The words of Dame Laura Cox on Parliament's approach to harassment apply to this as well.

“This cycle of repeatedly reacting to crises only after they have developed into crises, and sometimes only after unwelcome publicity, is a perilous approach to adopt for any organisation, but it is completely hopeless for a place of work.”

Well it's also a completely hopeless way for a country to approach the issues associated with immigration and integration. And yet that is what has been done. And why we are now in this mess.

SouthamObserver

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

PART TWO



I like John Major and think his recent criticisms have some force.

But both state.

And ta bit.

That re.

"It's not just about the economy, stupid!"

Nah. Most people (certainly the balance of those who gave Leave a majority) who object to foreigners don't give a stuff about the Portugese bakery or Polish supermarket. They mean non-EU foreigners as they don't look or behave like us but, as the option to stop that type of immigration was not available, they chose the nearest target they could. And here we are.

Nah. It’s not about colour it’s about making a contribution and integration

The Polish plumber, the Bulgarian builder the pretty Italian girl in Pret (TM @rcs1000 ) are all ok. The Romanian beggar or big issue salesman is less welcome*

Similarly (except for a small racist minority) the Gujarati family who run the local pharmacy are ok as is the black guy who works in the garage or the Bangladeshi waiters in the local Indian**. The Yardie gangster or the woman in the niqab are not favoured.

If you look at the stats the Brits are welcoming and tolerant. Much more so than Europe

* I know these are small numbers but they are not perceived as such

** I know, I know

Spain is very welcoming. It is not only home to any number of Northern European immigrants, but also many from Romania and Latin America. Immigration has hugely changed it as a country over the last 40 years - and now it is on the front line in the refugee crisis, too.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/09/19/a-majority-of-europeans-favor-taking-in-refugees-but-most-disapprove-of-eus-handling-of-the-issue/

grabcocque

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

grabcocque said:

David_Evershed said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1052909338723938304

The reason why Leadsom is not going to resign - so she can help to manage the Brexit business through parliament as Leader of the House. Could be a fight between her and Bercow.

A Bercow, let's not forget who (a) hates the Tories, (b) is retiring soon so has (b) nothing to lose from kicking them hard in their nethers.

I suspect the motion will be about as un-amendable as I am un-fat.

Yes and no. As the government memo on the subject points out:

Amendments to the motion will not automatically alter the text of the Withdrawal Agreement or Future Framework, which will both have been agreed at the international level between the UK and the EU. ...
...
.. if amendments were passed which purported to offer approval, but only subject to changes being made to the text of either the Withdrawal Agreement or the Future Framework, this would in effect amount to parliament not approving the documents that were put to it.


In other words, yes, you can amend it, but ultimately it's take it or leave it, and leave it by default means exit with no deal. Which is pretty obvious, really.

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/procedure/2017-19/Memorandum-from-the-Government-on-parliamentary-approval-of-the-Withdrawal-Agreement.pdf

Quite right, too. The executive has sole prerogative to negotiate treaties.

The idea that backbenchers could just draft a couple of amendments and the last two years of weapons-grade clusterfuckery can just be erased from the timeline is... Questionable.

And as always, it's the wrong question. The question is not, how does Parliament reject May's terrible, terrible deal if it ever happens, the question is *what happens when it does*?

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/CharlieCooper8/status/1052926305971236866

RobD

grabcocque said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

grabcocque said:

David_Evershed said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1052909338723938304

The reason why Leadsom is not going to resign - so she can help to manage the Brexit business through parliament as Leader of the House. Could be a fight between her and Bercow.

A Bercow, let's not forget who (a) hates the Tories, (b) is retiring soon so has (b) nothing to lose from kicking them hard in their nethers.

I suspect the motion will be about as un-amendable as I am un-fat.

Yes and no. As the government memo on the subject points out:

Amendments to the motion will not automatically alter the text of the Withdrawal Agreement or Future Framework, which will both have been agreed at the international level between the UK and the EU. ...
...
.. if amendments were passed which purported to offer approval, but only subject to changes being made to the text of either the Withdrawal Agreement or the Future Framework, this would in effect amount to parliament not approving the documents that were put to it.


In other words, yes, you can amend it, but ultimately it's take it or leave it, and leave it by default means exit with no deal. Which is pretty obvious, really.

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/procedure/2017-19/Memorandum-from-the-Government-on-parliamentary-approval-of-the-Withdrawal-Agreement.pdf

Quite right, too. The executive has sole prerogative to negotiate treaties.

The idea that backbenchers could just draft a couple of amendments and the last two years of weapons-grade clusterfuckery can just be erased from the timeline is... Questionable.

And as always, it's the wrong question. The question is not, how does Parliament reject May's terrible, terrible deal if it ever happens, the question is *what happens when it does*?

You dont need an amendment to reject it.

Nigelb

edmundintokyo said:

grabcocque said:

But you can.

Remember when he had a massive tantrum because somebody called him "Fuckface von Clownstick" on Twitter?

Like most bullies, he don't like it up 'im.

(FIRST like your mum)

So the relevant betting question is which of the current Democratic field will call him Fuckface von Clownstick.

I think we're down to Biden and Warren, possibly Gillibrand.

I believe TOADUS is the approved epithet these days.
Also ‘clickbait’

RobD

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/CharlieCooper8/status/1052926305971236866

Perhaps she misheard?

Cyclefree

OldKingCole said:

Cyclefree said:

OldKingCole said:

Cyclefree said:

Anyway, in some good-ish news for me, I do not need a shoulder operation, which is big relief. I have apparently badly inflamed the long head of my biceps tendon and the area around it. God knows how. Probably excessive gardening.

So rest is prescribed. And painkillers. And intensive physio to strengthen all my other arm muscles to give my poor biceps a rest. It will take time which is a bore. But at least in time it should get better.

The only trouble is I have just received a big box from JParkers today of several hundred bulbs which need planting - and the weather is just right for this. So. What to do? Dig with my left hand, I suppose - or try and bribe some nice fit young man to do this for me.

And thank you to all who sent me your good wishes yesterday. Very much appreciated.

Is there not some fit young person (or do you mean fit in the ‘other’ sense), male or female trying to make (and quite possibly making) a good living doing jobbing gardening in your area? There are quite a few round here, some of whom have decided that commuting to London for three hours a day just isn’t worth it.

But it’s good to hear that you don’t need surgery. A good physiotherapist is often much more useful than a surgeon.
I wish you well.

I may well have to look for someone like that to help. I feel torn because I really enjoy doing this and then mulching and deadheading and generally preparing the garden for winter and making space for the winter flowering plants to do their stuff. There is something magical about being outside in the autumn light.

Plus it gives me a chance to look at the garden afresh and think about where I might want to make changes next year, what's worked, what hasn't. So getting someone else to do it is like outsourcing one activity which brings me great joy. There is scarcely a day in the year when I don't do something outside.

The big advantage that someone who has dropped out of the rat race has is that they may well be more willing to make useful suggestions. You don’t, do you, want to be the ‘lady in the big hat who tells the man where to dig’; you want to be part of it.

I know I am going to have to look into it. I am very jealous of my garden though. It is my space, my little patch of heaven, where no-one is allowed to disturb me. Every single plant in there (and there are hundreds) has been planted and nurtured by me. I won't even allow my husband to do stuff in it, other than to admire my magnificent handiwork.

Letting go - even for a bit - is hard......

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

grabcocque said:

David_Evershed said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1052909338723938304

The reason why Leadsom is not going to resign - so she can help to manage the Brexit business through parliament as Leader of the House. Could be a fight between her and Bercow.

A Bercow, let's not forget who (a) hates the Tories, (b) is retiring soon so has (b) nothing to lose from kicking them hard in their nethers.

I suspect the motion will be about as un-amendable as I am un-fat.

Yes and no. As the government memo on the subject points out:

Amendments to the motion will not automatically alter the text of the Withdrawal Agreement or Future Framework, which will both have been agreed at the international level between the UK and the EU. ...
...
.. if amendments were passed which purported to offer approval, but only subject to changes being made to the text of either the Withdrawal Agreement or the Future Framework, this would in effect amount to parliament not approving the documents that were put to it.

In other words, yes, you can amend it, but ultimately it's take it or leave it, and leave it by default means exit with no deal. Which is pretty obvious, really.

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/procedure/2017-19/Memorandum-from-the-Government-on-parliamentary-approval-of-the-Withdrawal-Agreement.pdf

So essentially any amendment proposed will be a wrecking amendment ?

grabcocque

RobD said:

You dont need an amendment to reject it.

In practice, we don't even need a vote. At the moment, just the threat of pizza is enough to destroy one of May's deals.

Nigelb

DavidL said:

I think of all his nicknames Pocahontas has been my favourite. It's a career ending monkier for Warren making her look like a fantasist, trivial and entirely unserious, all at the same time.

Trump is an appalling individual: venal, immoral, dishonest and more than a bit of a fantasist himself but he's got this politics stuff nailed. His speech about Blasey Ford's "one can of beer" and "I don't remember" was an absolutely devastating use of rhetoric, just brutal. He is always capable of self destruction but failing that he is going to be very, very hard to beat.

I think you perhaps overestimate his chances.
He will hold his base, but that is not sufficient.

YBarddCwsc

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

PART TWO



I like John Major and think his recent criticisms have some force.

But both state.

And ta bit.

That re.

"It's not just about the economy, stupid!"

Nah. Most people (certainly the balance of those who gave Leave a majority) who object to foreigners don't give a stuff about the Portugese bakery or Polish supermarket. They mean non-EU foreigners as they don't look or behave like us but, as the option to stop that type of immigration was not available, they chose the nearest target they could. And here we are.

Nah. It’s not about colour it’s about making a contribution and integration

The Polish plumber, the Bulgarian builder the pretty Italian girl in Pret (TM @rcs1000 ) are all ok. The Romanian beggar or big issue salesman is less welcome*

Similarly (except for a small racist minority) the Gujarati family who run the local pharmacy are ok as is the black guy who works in the garage or the Bangladeshi waiters in the local Indian**. The Yardie gangster or the woman in the niqab are not favoured.

If you look at the stats the Brits are welcoming and tolerant. Much more so than Europe

* I know these are small numbers but they are not perceived as such

** I know, I know

Spain is very welcoming. It is not only home to any number of Northern European immigrants, but also many from Romania and Latin America. Immigration has hugely changed it as a country over the last 40 years - and now it is on the front line in the refugee crisis, too.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/09/19/a-majority-of-europeans-favor-taking-in-refugees-but-most-disapprove-of-eus-handling-of-the-issue/

Spain is very welcoming.

I see. Those images in my mind of Spanish police beating the shit out of the Catalans are figments.

RobD

grabcocque said:

RobD said:

You dont need an amendment to reject it.

In practice, we don't even need a vote. At the moment, just the threat of pizza is enough to destroy one of May's deals.

Did Leadsom’s meeting actually change anything? They’ve got no idea more than adding additional pluses after the word Canada.

logical_song

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

I was in Boston earlier this week. The expectation among most of those I spoke to was that Trump would lose the popular vote once more but win the election. I imagine they are right. America does not feel like a country that is even close to healing yet. The interesting bit will be what happens in the House and Senate votes that year. For the House the Republicans still have two more years to gerrymander and suppress. What a fine bunch they are. At some point, though, they will lose the levers of power - and when they do they may find they never get them back again.

As if the Democrats don’t gerrymander. Seriously.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/28/how-maryland-democrats-pulled-off-their-aggressive-gerrymander/

That's precisely my point. I would expect the next Democrat controlled House and Senate to increase the number of justices on the Supreme Court for starters - and to look at what can be done about voter suppression, at least, at a federal level. Then there's impeachment ...

They are going to stuff the supreme court? And they are supposed to be the good guys...

They should redress the balance bringing the court back to where it was. They should put in high quality judges who have more integrity than, for example, Kavanaugh.
They should un-gerrymander districts and take them out of the control of politicians (as in the UK with a boundary commission).
Whether they do that or follow Trumps lead of win at any cost is another matter.

daodao

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

Nah. It’s not about colour it’s about making a contribution and integration

The Polish plumber, the Bulgarian builder the pretty Italian girl in Pret (TM @rcs1000 ) are all ok. The Romanian beggar or big issue salesman is less welcome*

Similarly (except for a small racist minority) the Gujarati family who run the local pharmacy are ok as is the black guy who works in the garage or the Bangladeshi waiters in the local Indian**. The Yardie gangster or the woman in the niqab are not favoured.

If you look at the stats the Brits are welcoming and tolerant. Much more so than Europe

* I know these are small numbers but they are not perceived as such

** I know, I know

You make one good point. "they are small numbers but are not perceived as such". Exactly! Actually, how many Romanian big issue sellers are there? Women in niqabs? Housewives? Mothers? The former is a trivial number. The latter more but since when are we ok discriminating against stay at home parents? Do we include @JosiasJessop also?

How about Sephardi Jews in Stamford Hill? They sure as hell aren't integrating.

The point is precisely that it is the perception and not only that, but the group of people you identified are not here legally as it is on the one hand, or are just "different" on the other.

And for that we got Brexit.

Correction: The black-hatted Jews in Stamford Hill (and also north Manchester) are Chasidim from the shtetlach of the former Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth, they are not Sephardi. Their antecedents nearly all arrived in the UK before 1905, are UK citizens and are as integrated into the UK as they can be while still adhering to the laws concerning Kosher food and Sabbath observance.

logical_song

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

I think of all his nicknames Pocahontas has been my favourite. It's a career ending monkier for Warren making her look like a fantasist, trivial and entirely unserious, all at the same time.

Trump is an appalling individual: venal, immoral, dishonest and more than a bit of a fantasist himself but he's got this politics stuff nailed. His speech about Blasey Ford's "one can of beer" and "I don't remember" was an absolutely devastating use of rhetoric, just brutal. He is always capable of self destruction but failing that he is going to be very, very hard to beat.

I think you perhaps overestimate his chances.
He will hold his base, but that is not sufficient.

Trump was very lucky, taking 3 states by tiny margins. States which were talked of as Hillary's 'firewall' and taken for granted by her.
Of course he also had Putin on his side.

RobD

logical_song said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

I was in Boston earlier this week. The expectation among most of those I spoke to was that Trump would lose the popular vote once more but win the election. I imagine they are right. America does not feel like a country that is even close to healing yet. The interesting bit will be what happens in the House and Senate votes that year. For the House the Republicans still have two more years to gerrymander and suppress. What a fine bunch they are. At some point, though, they will lose the levers of power - and when they do they may find they never get them back again.

As if the Democrats don’t gerrymander. Seriously.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/28/how-maryland-democrats-pulled-off-their-aggressive-gerrymander/

That's precisely my point. I would expect the next Democrat controlled House and Senate to increase the number of justices on the Supreme Court for starters - and to look at what can be done about voter suppression, at least, at a federal level. Then there's impeachment ...

They are going to stuff the supreme court? And they are supposed to be the good guys...

They should redress the balance bringing the court back to where it was. They should put in high quality judges who have more integrity than, for example, Kavanaugh.
They should un-gerrymander districts and take them out of the control of politicians (as in the UK with a boundary commission).
Whether they do that or follow Trumps lead of win at any cost is another matter.

Based on past experience, I think that is very unlikely. And are the Democrats the ultimate arbiter of balance these days?

Tim_B

Richard_Nabavi said:

Elizabeth Warren is toast, surely. Lord only knows what she was trying to achieve with that DNA test, but whatever it was, it has backfired big-time. It has just served to make Trump look right, and make her look petulant, silly, defensive and probably dishonest.

In any case she's the wrong candidate to appeal to the key voters the Dems need to win back, in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The Dems need to focus entirely on electability in the key states. They are going to lose again if they indulge themselves with a candidate whose appeal lies mostly in California and the north-east.

1/3 of Democrats in the House are from CA, NY or MA.

anothernick

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/CharlieCooper8/status/1052926305971236866

Perhaps she misheard?

May has already signed up to an open-ended backstop. It is in the December declaration. And neither Foreign Secretary Johnson nor Brexit Secretary Davis demurred.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1052928918737641472

OldKingCole

Cyclefree said:

OldKingCole said:

Cyclefree said:

OldKingCole said:

Cyclefree said:

Anyway, in some good-ish news for me, I do not need a shoulder operation, which is big relief. I have apparently badly inflamed the long head of my biceps tendon and the area around it. God knows how. Probably excessive gardening.

So rest is prescribed. And painkillers. And intensive physio to strengthen all my other arm muscles to give my poor biceps a rest. It will take time which is a bore. But at least in time it should get better.

The only trouble is I have just received a big box from JParkers today of several hundred bulbs which need planting - and the weather is just right for this. So. What to do? Dig with my left hand, I suppose - or try and bribe some nice fit young man to do this for me.

And thank you to all who sent me your good wishes yesterday. Very much appreciated.

But it’s good to hear that you don’t need surgery. A good physiotherapist is often much more useful than a surgeon.
I wish you well.

I may well have to look for someone like that to help. I feel torn because I really enjoy doing this and then mulching and deadheading and generally preparing the garden for winter and making space for the winter flowering plants to do their stuff. There is something magical about being outside in the autumn light.

Plus it gives me a chance to look at the garden afresh and think about where I might want to make changes next year, what's worked, what hasn't. So getting someone else to do it is like outsourcing one activity which brings me great joy. There is scarcely a day in the year when I don't do something outside.

The big advantage that someone who has dropped out of the rat race has is that they may well be more willing to make useful suggestions. You don’t, do you, want to be the ‘lady in the big hat who tells the man where to dig’; you want to be part of it.

I know I am going to have to look into it. I am very jealous of my garden though. It is my space, my little patch of heaven, where no-one is allowed to disturb me. Every single plant in there (and there are hundreds) has been planted and nurtured by me. I won't even allow my husband to do stuff in it, other than to admire my magnificent handiwork.

Letting go - even for a bit - is hard......

My wife is somewhat of a similar position to yourself. She was worked hard in our garden and worked wonders. I am left to mow the lawn and to fetch and carry. However, we need to do some serious work in part of our garden, but neither of us is nowadays really fit enough to do the necessary manual work. I’ve sawn down the odd bush but that’s about as far as it goes.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/Banxcartoons/status/1052929144722472962

SouthamObserver

YBarddCwsc said:

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

PART TWO



I like John Major and think his recent criticisms have some force.

But both state.

And ta bit.

That re.

"It's not just about the economy, stupid!"

Nah. Most people (certainly the balance of those who gave Leave a majority) who object to foreigners don't give a stuff about the Portugese bakery or Polish supermarket. They mean non-EU foreigners as they don't look or behave like us but, as the option to stop that type of immigration was not available, they chose the nearest target they could. And here we are.

Nah. It’s not about colour it’s about making a contribution and integration

The Polish plumber, the Bulgarian builder the pretty Italian girl in Pret (TM @rcs1000 ) are all ok. The Romanian beggar or big issue salesman is less welcome*

Similarly (except for a small racist minority) the Gujarati family who run the local pharmacy are ok as is the black guy who works in the garage or the Bangladeshi waiters in the local Indian**. The Yardie gangster or the woman in the niqab are not favoured.

If you look at the stats the Brits are welcoming and tolerant. Much more so than Europe

* I know these are small numbers but they are not perceived as such

** I know, I know

Spain is very welcoming. It is not only home to any number of Northern European immigrants, but also many from Romania and Latin America. Immigration has hugely changed it as a country over the last 40 years - and now it is on the front line in the refugee crisis, too.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/09/19/a-majority-of-europeans-favor-taking-in-refugees-but-most-disapprove-of-eus-handling-of-the-issue/

Spain is very welcoming.

I see. Those images in my mind of Spanish police beating the shit out of the Catalans are figments.

Catalans are not immigrants ;-)

Police brutality is a common problem across the world, of course.

RobD

anothernick said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/CharlieCooper8/status/1052926305971236866

Perhaps she misheard?

May has already signed up to an open-ended backstop. It is in the December declaration. And neither Foreign Secretary Johnson nor Brexit Secretary Davis demurred.

You must have forgotten. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

OldKingCole

anothernick said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/CharlieCooper8/status/1052926305971236866

Perhaps she misheard?

May has already signed up to an open-ended backstop. It is in the December declaration. And neither Foreign Secretary Johnson nor Brexit Secretary Davis demurred.

Boris was making a paper aeroplane out of the relevant page when it was discussed.

grabcocque

Miss Mordaunt misthought she misheard what she missaid, but she definitely did not. OKAY?

Big_G_NorthWales

Listening to Junckers and Tusk you just despair. They are incompetent beyond belief and how they hold any office is unbelievable

Junckers interferring in Italy saying Italy is Italy. If he thinks he can rule on the economic decisions of a sovereign Country he is inviting insurrection

OldKingCole

daodao said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

Nah. It’s not about colour it’s about making a contribution and integration

The Polish plumber, the Bulgarian builder the pretty Italian girl in Pret (TM @rcs1000 ) are all ok. The Romanian beggar or big issue salesman is less welcome*

Similarly (except for a small racist minority) the Gujarati family who run the local pharmacy are ok as is the black guy who works in the garage or the Bangladeshi waiters in the local Indian**. The Yardie gangster or the woman in the niqab are not favoured.

If you look at the stats the Brits are welcoming and tolerant. Much more so than Europe

* I know these are small numbers but they are not perceived as such

** I know, I know

You make one good point. "they are small numbers but are not perceived as such". Exactly! Actually, how many Romanian big issue sellers are there? Women in niqabs? Housewives? Mothers? The former is a trivial number. The latter more but since when are we ok discriminating against stay at home parents? Do we include @JosiasJessop also?

How about Sephardi Jews in Stamford Hill? They sure as hell aren't integrating.

The point is precisely that it is the perception and not only that, but the group of people you identified are not here legally as it is on the one hand, or are just "different" on the other.

And for that we got Brexit.

Correction: The black-hatted Jews in Stamford Hill (and also north Manchester) are Chasidim from the shtetlach of the former Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth, they are not Sephardi. Their antecedents nearly all arrived in the UK before 1905, are UK citizens and are as integrated into the UK as they can be while still adhering to the laws concerning Kosher food and Sabbath observance.

Point taken. However, they are often not anxious to integrate with the majority community.

tpfkar

RobD said:

grabcocque said:

RobD said:

You dont need an amendment to reject it.

In practice, we don't even need a vote. At the moment, just the threat of pizza is enough to destroy one of May's deals.

Did Leadsom’s meeting actually change anything? They’ve got no idea more than adding additional pluses after the word Canada.

That's really unfair.

The latest wheeze is to put "super" in front of Canada.

Exhibit A, your honour:
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1052800896487297024

YBarddCwsc

SouthamObserver said:

YBarddCwsc said:

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

PART TWO



I like John Major and think his recent criticisms have some force.

But both state.

And ta bit.

That re.

"It's not just about the economy, stupid!"

Nah. Most people (certainly the balance of those who gave Leave a majority) who object to foreigners don't give a stuff about the Portugese bakery or Polish supermarket. They mean non-EU foreigners as they don't look or behave like us but, as the option to stop that type of immigration was not available, they chose the nearest target they could. And here we are.

Nah. It’s not about colour it’s about making a contribution and integration

The Polish plumber, the Bulgarian builder the pretty Italian girl in Pret (TM @rcs1000 ) are all ok. The Romanian beggar or big issue salesman is less welcome*

Similarly (except for a small racist minority) the Gujarati family who run the local pharmacy are ok as is the black guy who works in the garage or the Bangladeshi waiters in the local Indian**. The Yardie gangster or the woman in the niqab are not favoured.

If you look at the stats the Brits are welcoming and tolerant. Much more so than Europe

* I know these are small numbers but they are not perceived as such

** I know, I know

Spain is very welcoming. It is not only home to any number of Northern European immigrants, but also many from Romania and Latin America. Immigration has hugely changed it as a country over the last 40 years - and now it is on the front line in the refugee crisis, too.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/09/19/a-majority-of-europeans-favor-taking-in-refugees-but-most-disapprove-of-eus-handling-of-the-issue/

Spain is very welcoming.

I see. Those images in my mind of Spanish police beating the shit out of the Catalans are figments.

Catalans are not immigrants ;-)

Police brutality is a common problem across the world, of course.

The Catalans are a minority though.

Police brutality against a minority is not a feature of a welcoming, tolerant country.

SouthamObserver

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

I think of all his nicknames Pocahontas has been my favourite. It's a career ending monkier for Warren making her look like a fantasist, trivial and entirely unserious, all at the same time.

Trump is an appalling individual: venal, immoral, dishonest and more than a bit of a fantasist himself but he's got this politics stuff nailed. His speech about Blasey Ford's "one can of beer" and "I don't remember" was an absolutely devastating use of rhetoric, just brutal. He is always capable of self destruction but failing that he is going to be very, very hard to beat.

I think you perhaps overestimate his chances.
He will hold his base, but that is not sufficient.

It is a fair point that a lot of the minorities who turned out to vote for Obama in 08 and 12 did not turn out for Hillary. In several swing states that was probably significant. The Democrats need a candidate to get out their vote where it really matters - without scaring independents. That surely means Biden. Trump's biggest challenge, though, is probably women voters. He clearly has very serious issues around women - and these are not just sexual.

grabcocque

tpfkar said:

The latest wheeze is to put "super" in front of Canada.

Maybe they just really really like the weed?

rkrkrk

grabcocque said:

Miss Mordaunt misthought she misheard what she missaid, but she definitely did not. OKAY?

She certainly has a way with words. From a recent speech she gave:
"Our economy is innately international because it was based on ancient routes of international trade. Our modern infrastructures have continued this tradition in shipping, airlines, roads, British law and even time itself."

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-future-of-uk-aid-post-brexit

TOPPING

daodao said:

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

Nah. It’s not about colour it’s about making a contribution and integration

The Polish plumber, the Bulgarian builder the pretty Italian girl in Pret (TM @rcs1000 ) are all ok. The Romanian beggar or big issue salesman is less welcome*

Similarly (except for a small racist minority) the Gujarati family who run the local pharmacy are ok as is the black guy who works in the garage or the Bangladeshi waiters in the local Indian**. The Yardie gangster or the woman in the niqab are not favoured.

If you look at the stats the Brits are welcoming and tolerant. Much more so than Europe

* I know these are small numbers but they are not perceived as such

** I know, I know

You make one good point. "they are small numbers but are not perceived as such". Exactly! Actually, how many Romanian big issue sellers are there? Women in niqabs? Housewives? Mothers? The former is a trivial number. The latter more but since when are we ok discriminating against stay at home parents? Do we include @JosiasJessop also?

How about Sephardi Jews in Stamford Hill? They sure as hell aren't integrating.

The point is precisely that it is the perception and not only that, but the group of people you identified are not here legally as it is on the one hand, or are just "different" on the other.

And for that we got Brexit.

Correction: The black-hatted Jews in Stamford Hill (and also north Manchester) are Chasidim from the shtetlach of the former Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth, they are not Sephardi. Their antecedents nearly all arrived in the UK before 1905, are UK citizens and are as integrated into the UK as they can be while still adhering to the laws concerning Kosher food and Sabbath observance.

Yeah thanks for the correction. Not integrated would be the way I would describe them. Same as the women in the niqab that @Charles mentioned earlier. No doubt impeccable back stories, etc.

logical_song

RobD said:

logical_song said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

I was in Boston earlier this week. The expectation among most of those I spoke to was that Trump would lose the popular vote once more but win the election. I imagine they are right. America does not feel like a country that is even close to healing yet. The interesting bit will be what happens in the House and Senate votes that year. For the House the Republicans still have two more years to gerrymander and suppress. What a fine bunch they are. At some point, though, they will lose the levers of power - and when they do they may find they never get them back again.

As if the Democrats don’t gerrymander. Seriously.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/28/how-maryland-democrats-pulled-off-their-aggressive-gerrymander/

That's precisely my point. I would expect the next Democrat controlled House and Senate to increase the number of justices on the Supreme Court for starters - and to look at what can be done about voter suppression, at least, at a federal level. Then there's impeachment ...

They are going to stuff the supreme court? And they are supposed to be the good guys...

They should redress the balance bringing the court back to where it was. They should put in high quality judges who have more integrity than, for example, Kavanaugh.
They should un-gerrymander districts and take them out of the control of politicians (as in the UK with a boundary commission).
Whether they do that or follow Trumps lead of win at any cost is another matter.

Based on past experience, I think that is very unlikely. And are the Democrats the ultimate arbiter of balance these days?

Republicans recently at least are the worst offenders. For example see the court case they lost here:
http://www2.philly.com/philly/news/politics/state/pennsylvania-gerrymandering-case-congressional-redistricting-map-coverage-guide-20180615.html

grabcocque

rkrkrk said:

grabcocque said:

Miss Mordaunt misthought she misheard what she missaid, but she definitely did not. OKAY?

She certainly has a way with words. From a recent speech she gave:
"Our economy is innately international because it was based on ancient routes of international trade. Our modern infrastructures have continued this tradition in shipping, airlines, roads, British law and even time itself."

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-future-of-uk-aid-post-brexit

There you have it: Time was invented by the British.

Tim_B

SouthamObserver said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

I think of all his nicknames Pocahontas has been my favourite. It's a career ending monkier for Warren making her look like a fantasist, trivial and entirely unserious, all at the same time.

Trump is an appalling individual: venal, immoral, dishonest and more than a bit of a fantasist himself but he's got this politics stuff nailed. His speech about Blasey Ford's "one can of beer" and "I don't remember" was an absolutely devastating use of rhetoric, just brutal. He is always capable of self destruction but failing that he is going to be very, very hard to beat.

I think you perhaps overestimate his chances.
He will hold his base, but that is not sufficient.

It is a fair point that a lot of the minorities who turned out to vote for Obama in 08 and 12 did not turn out for Hillary. In several swing states that was probably significant. The Democrats need a candidate to get out their vote where it really matters - without scaring independents. That surely means Biden. Trump's biggest challenge, though, is probably women voters. He clearly has very serious issues around women - and these are not just sexual.

He has an independent hair.....

RobD

RobD said:

anothernick said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/CharlieCooper8/status/1052926305971236866

Perhaps she misheard?

May has already signed up to an open-ended backstop. It is in the December declaration. And neither Foreign Secretary Johnson nor Brexit Secretary Davis demurred.

You must have forgotten. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

It even says that on page 1 of the December agreement.

Looking further at the text, where is the NI-only backstop mentioned? I only see a passage stating that the whole UK would remain in alignment, and that there would be no additional regulatory border between GB and NI.

Danny565

LOL, are Juncker/Tusk press conferences always this much of a mess?

Big_G_NorthWales

Danny565 said:

LOL, Juncker is such a mess.

He is unfit for office

RobD

grabcocque said:

rkrkrk said:

grabcocque said:

Miss Mordaunt misthought she misheard what she missaid, but she definitely did not. OKAY?

She certainly has a way with words. From a recent speech she gave:
"Our economy is innately international because it was based on ancient routes of international trade. Our modern infrastructures have continued this tradition in shipping, airlines, roads, British law and even time itself."

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-future-of-uk-aid-post-brexit

There you have it: Time was invented by the British.

Probably referring to GMT.

Sean_F

Cyclefree said:

Anyway, in some good-ish news for me, I do not need a shoulder operation, which is big relief. I have apparently badly inflamed the long head of my biceps tendon and the area around it. God knows how. Probably excessive gardening.

So rest is prescribed. And painkillers. And intensive physio to strengthen all my other arm muscles to give my poor biceps a rest. It will take time which is a bore. But at least in time it should get better.

The only trouble is I have just received a big box from JParkers today of several hundred bulbs which need planting - and the weather is just right for this. So. What to do? Dig with my left hand, I suppose - or try and bribe some nice fit young man to do this for me.

And thank you to all who sent me your good wishes yesterday. Very much appreciated.

Good news. I've just about recovered from a bad fall while hillwalking in Borrowdale.

rottenborough

Tim_B said:

SouthamObserver said:

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

I think of all his nicknames Pocahontas has been my favourite. It's a career ending monkier for Warren making her look like a fantasist, trivial and entirely unserious, all at the same time.

Trump is an appalling individual: venal, immoral, dishonest and more than a bit of a fantasist himself but he's got this politics stuff nailed. His speech about Blasey Ford's "one can of beer" and "I don't remember" was an absolutely devastating use of rhetoric, just brutal. He is always capable of self destruction but failing that he is going to be very, very hard to beat.

I think you perhaps overestimate his chances.
He will hold his base, but that is not sufficient.

It is a fair point that a lot of the minorities who turned out to vote for Obama in 08 and 12 did not turn out for Hillary. In several swing states that was probably significant. The Democrats need a candidate to get out their vote where it really matters - without scaring independents. That surely means Biden. Trump's biggest challenge, though, is probably women voters. He clearly has very serious issues around women - and these are not just sexual.

He has an independent hair.....

Biden + Kennedy as running mate?

RobD

logical_song said:

RobD said:

logical_song said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

I was in Boston earlier this week. The expectation among most of those I spoke to was that Trump would lose the popular vote once more but win the election. I imagine they are right. America does not feel like a country that is even close to healing yet. The interesting bit will be what happens in the House and Senate votes that year. For the House the Republicans still have two more years to gerrymander and suppress. What a fine bunch they are. At some point, though, they will lose the levers of power - and when they do they may find they never get them back again.

As if the Democrats don’t gerrymander. Seriously.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/wonk/wp/2018/03/28/how-maryland-democrats-pulled-off-their-aggressive-gerrymander/

That's precisely my point. I would expect the next Democrat controlled House and Senate to increase the number of justices on the Supreme Court for starters - and to look at what can be done about voter suppression, at least, at a federal level. Then there's impeachment ...

They are going to stuff the supreme court? And they are supposed to be the good guys...

They should redress the balance bringing the court back to where it was. They should put in high quality judges who have more integrity than, for example, Kavanaugh.
They should un-gerrymander districts and take them out of the control of politicians (as in the UK with a boundary commission).
Whether they do that or follow Trumps lead of win at any cost is another matter.

Based on past experience, I think that is very unlikely. And are the Democrats the ultimate arbiter of balance these days?

Republicans recently at least are the worst offenders. For example see the court case they lost here:
http://www2.philly.com/philly/news/politics/state/pennsylvania-gerrymandering-case-congressional-redistricting-map-coverage-guide-20180615.html

How's that any worse than the Democrat example in Maryland I posted earlier?

SouthamObserver

YBarddCwsc said:

SouthamObserver said:

YBarddCwsc said:

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

PART TWO



I like John Major and think his recent criticisms have some force.

But both state.

And ta bit.

That re.

"It's not just about the economy, stupid!"

Nah. Most people (certainly the balance of those who gave Leave a majority) who object to foreigners don't give a stuff about the Portugese bakery or Polish supermarket. They mean non-EU foreigners as they don't look or behave like us but, as the option to stop that type of immigration was not available, they chose the nearest target they could. And here we are.

Nah. It’s not about colour it’s about making a contribution and integration

The Polish plumber, the Bulgarian builder the pretty Italian girl in Pret (TM @rcs1000 ) are all ok. The Romanian beggar or big issue salesman is less welcome*

Similarly (except for a small racist minority) the Gujarati family who run the local pharmacy are ok as is the black guy who works in the garage or the Bangladeshi waiters in the local Indian**. The Yardie gangster or the woman in the niqab are not favoured.

If you look at the stats the Brits are welcoming and tolerant. Much more so than Europe

* I know these are small numbers but they are not perceived as such

** I know, I know

Spain is very welcoming. It is not only home to any number of Northern European immigrants, but also many from Romania and Latin America. Immigration has hugely changed it as a country over the last 40 years - and now it is on the front line in the refugee crisis, too.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/09/19/a-majority-of-europeans-favor-taking-in-refugees-but-most-disapprove-of-eus-handling-of-the-issue/

Spain is very welcoming.

I see. Those images in my mind of Spanish police beating the shit out of the Catalans are figments.

Catalans are not immigrants ;-)

Police brutality is a common problem across the world, of course.

The Catalans are a minority though.

Police brutality against a minority is not a feature of a welcoming, tolerant country.

No, the Catalans are Spanish. Just as the Scots and Welsh are British. Some Catalans do not regard themselves as Spanish, but that is different. In any case, Catalans are not subjected to indiscriminate police brutality.