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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m now betting that Brexit won’t happen next March 29th as pl

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    More importantly than Brexit is the Saudi threat to turn off the taps if people impose sanctions re Khashoggi.

    That's an astonishing upping of the stakes.

    Not the threat it once was, in the era of fracking.
    Fracking does not come on stream "all in a rush", it would take at least two years (and probably more) to add 5 million barrels of new US/Canada production.

    If the Saudis cut output 50%, then the oil price would probably move up 60-70%. The real winners would be the Russians, and the Europeans, the Chinese and the Japanese, would all be stuffed.

    Of course, longer term, it would spur greater energy efficiency and more fracking outside North America. Plus Saudi Arabia would lose its supporters in the West, so it's a dangerous game they're playing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,778
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    More importantly than Brexit is the Saudi threat to turn off the taps if people impose sanctions re Khashoggi.

    That's an astonishing upping of the stakes.

    Not the threat it once was, in the era of fracking.
    Fracking does not come on stream "all in a rush", it would take at least two years (and probably more) to add 5 million barrels of new US/Canada production.

    If the Saudis cut output 50%, then the oil price would probably move up 60-70%. The real winners would be the Russians, and the Europeans, the Chinese and the Japanese, would all be stuffed.

    Of course, longer term, it would spur greater energy efficiency and more fracking outside North America. Plus Saudi Arabia would lose its supporters in the West, so it's a dangerous game they're playing.
    Don't the Saudis want to float Amico or whatever its called? Turning off the taps wont help that?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    More importantly than Brexit is the Saudi threat to turn off the taps if people impose sanctions re Khashoggi.

    That's an astonishing upping of the stakes.

    Not the threat it once was, in the era of fracking.
    Not to the US. Europe would have a bit more of a problem. We really should have got on with fracking.
    The problem is that in Texas, fracking happens on massive ranches with no people. We, on the other hand, are quite a crowded place, and we can't simply say that local communities have no say over disruptive development that happens in peoples' backyards.

  • rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    More importantly than Brexit is the Saudi threat to turn off the taps if people impose sanctions re Khashoggi.

    That's an astonishing upping of the stakes.

    Not the threat it once was, in the era of fracking.
    Fracking does not come on stream "all in a rush", it would take at least two years (and probably more) to add 5 million barrels of new US/Canada production.

    If the Saudis cut output 50%, then the oil price would probably move up 60-70%. The real winners would be the Russians, and the Europeans, the Chinese and the Japanese, would all be stuffed.

    Of course, longer term, it would spur greater energy efficiency and more fracking outside North America. Plus Saudi Arabia would lose its supporters in the West, so it's a dangerous game they're playing.
    On BBC last night Simon Reeve's programme "Mediterranean" showed a plant in Israel that converted sea water to drinking water at very little cost with virtually no manpower required. Seems like more should be made of this?!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    No. Marx is very clear on this in Der 18ter Brumaire. Which is to what Peston alludes.
  • "Sinn Fein says it will demand border poll if UK leaves EU with no deal" - just the latest in a series of huge clusterf**** awaiting us if we crash out.

    Economic chaos (at least in short term) and immediate existential threat to union. Will make managing the current situation almost look easy.... people need to be careful what they wish for and the whole 52 per cent definitely didn't vote for this "package" either.

    Needs some calm heads....not aggressive responses at this point.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Given Sterling is up against the US Dollar, that would seem to be the reaction of FX markets.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    If May goes then pile on #bridgen4pm at any odds. He's the hero we need but not the hero we deserve.

    Geoffrey Cox QC the Attorney General would be better, by far the brightest in the Cabinet and probably the richest as well and a Leaver but not an insane one and a brilliant speaker as he showed at the Tory conference as May's warm up. He would slaughter Corbyn at PMQs
    Jeremy Hunt is the richest member of the cabinet by far.
    Does he earn £700 000 a year still like Cox? Hunt is getting camper by the day and he blew his chances with his conference 'EU prison' gaffe
    Can I suggest you tone down the certainty?

    Life is full of gray shading
    Yet you are prepared to go for No Deal
    Of course I am

    If the terms of the Deal were that we had to deliver 12 maidens and 12 young men in chains to Rome each Eastertide would you accept it?
    As long as they were supplied from the ranks of the Born-to-Rule Six-Toed Pony-Fuckers of the Young Conservatives I think that would be fine.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    New thread.
  • NEW THREAD

This discussion has been closed.