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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A reminder of how GE2015 UKIP voters voted at GE2017
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A reminder of how GE2015 UKIP voters voted at GE2017
The most recent GB wide opinion polls, as collated by Wikipedia. https://t.co/XJhbZIFOjo pic.twitter.com/PK3Ng1vZTl
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Up to a point, Lord Copper.
Level pegging with the opposition (at worst) or even possibly several points ahead of them are the lightest of light blue 'mid-term blues'.
Today's Opinium poll: "The Conservatives have opened up a four-point lead over Labour despite Theresa May’s mounting troubles over Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll. The Tories have gained two points since last week and are now at 41%, while Labour has fallen by two points to 37%."
Otherwise I agree with Ms Vance; surely we should expect a party in Government, especially one doing what this one is doing, to be trailing by fourteen points, not leading by four.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1051356068146753537?s=20
Miss Vance, that'd be weird, given the Conservative don't, apparently, have enough candidates.
That's before we get into history repeating itself as farce.
Although that might still be the difference between minorty and majority Govt.
The Tories target is not those who are telling the pollsters they are Kippers. It is those who are saying "Oh FFS....what are you lot doing?" on the dorstep. They are the ones they have to win back.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/13/tories-take-four-point-lead-over-labour-despite-brexit-troubles
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
As I said the other day, her positioning is damn near perfect (for the Tories) it’s her execution that lets her down.
A move to chuck May and swerve in one Brexit direction with a more ideological leader could be a costly error.
The problem for the Tories is that they have no obvious electoral appeal under May. They, are a tax and spend party with Hammond as Chancellor caught in a standard of living crisis of their own making and are not so much negotiating Brexit as having the EU’s terms dictated to them by Robbins.
Labour have reverted back to the economic insanity of Foot’s day and are exposed due the misogyny and anti-semitism rife in their party.
The next election is going to be a choice between two parties of political incompetents. How did it get to this ?
I understand that Remainers would want a soft (or no) Brexit. But there is frankly no excuse for people turning a blind eye to what May is doing, which is indeed the most serious constitutional outrage committed in a century or more.
It is almost like Remainers are more interested in stopping Brexit than supporting their own country....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/02/theresa-may-warns-jean-claude-juncker-will-bloody-difficult/
May has advantages and disadvantages for the Tories from that point of view. If she pulls off a decent Brexit deal, she may get credit for it. As the incumbent PM, she also controls most of the key factors including possibly the timing of the election. However, I personally think she is unlikely to get credit for solving a problem people largely if incorrectly believe is of her own creation. There are also a number of other major problems looming, notably UC which will be a fiasco and probably a recession which will be unpopular. Those are unlikely to persuade voters she is a safe pair of hands. We also already know she's a dud campaigner.
However, Corbyn's one strength - his campaigning ability - is likely to be less effective next time after he has been forced to row back on or downplay so many features of his former manifesto and admit his pledges were not costed, and has had to spend most of the summer trying to explain he's not a racist (I said, again, that he would live to regret that story dominating the silly season). He is also going to have to explain how a 70 year old who has never had any job of any sort and is known for his indecision and administrative incompetence is fit to be PM - a question nobody asked before because everyone knew he wasn't going to win.
The only reason May might call an early election is to ensure she is still leader, because she will be out by the summer. But that's not a good reason and I think at the first sign of moving towards it she will be defenestrated.
However, just to remind everyone how wrong predictions can be:
https://youtu.be/G87UXIH8Lzo
There is a lot to play out in Brexit. We know it’s complex once you get beyond the slogans. If you accept that, different positions of versions of Brexit are possible. We need to understand the implications of each. Much is at stake.
However, that was also the case in 1990 and it didn't save Thatcher.
She said it was something no UK PM could ever agree to - now she is trying to agree to it (there is no difference between a customs border and regulatory border; they both divide the UK economically). And worse, she is trying to break her promise that it should be time limited.
So, time for the Remainers to declare where they stand.
I want a solution that does not kill the economy or burns bridges with people we’re going to have to work with after all this is over.
Since Britain ultimately is responsible here, we asked for this divorce, morally we need to take on the majority of the difficult compromises
Since there are already different legal jurisdictions and tax regimes within the UK, I don’t see different regulations in NI as a red line.
It’s not ideal, but neither is Brexit.
Another question - if NI ended up in the SM and CU with GB outside (eg a customs border in the Irish Sea) do you consider that acceptable?
I don't.
Furthermore it’s also clear that the Leave campaign ran one of, if not the, most dishonest campaigns we’ve had since the secret ballot was introduced and the duty of the PM now is to says so and withdraw the Article 50 letter.
But because Sinn Fein - rightly - will not work with her, and she refuses to resign and let someone else have a go, she's condemning Northern Ireland to limbo.
Since the Unionists have been making it abundantly if implicitly clear that would lead to a return of civil war and terrorism this might not be perhaps be the best outcome.
But again, part of the problem is the EU is insisting Northern Ireland is a special case but that Ireland isn't. Recognising and accepting the Common Travel Area would solve most of these problems tomorrow.
Why not?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/article-50-extension-unlikely-without-shift-in-uk-politics-say-eu-officials
If the majority of the rest of the UK are happy with a deal which leaves Northern Ireland in a different regulatory environment to the rest of the UK and with a different relationship to the EU than the rest of the UK, do or should the people of Northern Ireland (who may themselves be deeply divided) have an inherent veto on that deal?
If it was Surrey or Birmingham, would the same apply?
As someone might have said, do the wishes of the many outweigh the wishes of the few?
Admittedly I think that's a better performance than Boris would put up. But most of his votes were because he wasn't Thatcher (who, ironically, won in 1975 largely because she wasn't Heath).
I have to go. Have a good day.
Should the parts of the UK that voted Labour last General Election be subject to the government of Jeremy Corbyn's Labour?
It would also be a mistake to say post Chequers and May's moves to compromise with the EU all the move to UKIP has been from the Tories, according to the latest YouGov while 6% of 2017 Tories have indeed moved to UKIP, 1% of 2017 LD voters have also switched to the purples.
May can also take some comfort that 4% of 2017 Labour voters and 5% of 2017 LD voters have switched to the Tories which has enabled the Tories to have a 4% lead over Labour even despite the loss of hardline Brexiteers to UKIP.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/it0744dii4/TheTimes_181009_VI_Trackers_W.pdf
I'm not sure we should belong to an organisation we cannot leave.
It's demented. It's indefensible.
We'll see what happens. Sadly, my prediction of capitulation from May seems to be coming true, as does the earlier (think I made it the day of the result) forecast that we'd end up with a terrible deal negotiated that was worse than either leaving or remaining, a deliberately atrocious capitulation that would serve Remain well should a second referendum be held.
The EU is not at fault for the Brexiteers failure to understand!
The timetable is due to the Lisbon Treaty.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Recidivist, even.
Any other Remainers out there who care to do so?
It just shows how low May has sunk into the pit of appeasement that she is even considering this.
Come come Mr Dancer. You are interested in history. Ulster is not just another bit of the UK. It is one where a very large minority wouldn't chose to remain in the UK. We simply can't treat it as if it was Basingstoke.
Do you support a permanent backstop where NI has (a) a regulatory barrier with GB or (b) has a regulatory and customs barrier with GB?
That ship has long since sailed, as indeed has EEA/EFTA. There is simply not the time for these now.
The only possibilities remaining are:
1) Reversal of the Leave decision
2) No Deal Brexit in March
3) Implement the Withdrawal Agreement with Irish Backstop.
personally, I favour the first, but am not bothered by Irish Sea Customs border.
Talks between May and Cable will not progress as those with Heath and Thorpe did not then and Corbyn will end up PM of a minority government as Wilson did and Corbyn will then agree a Deal with the EU almost identical to the one May was proposing before we leave the EU next March.
May will then be toppled as Tory leader within a year and replaced by a Brexiteer, probably Boris, possibly Patel, Mogg or Cox much like Heath was toppled by Thatcher in early 1975
If they vote to join the Republic, that would sadden me but I'd accept it. Until then, they're part of the UK and forcing a customs barrier upon Northern Ireland, against their wishes, to satisfy the demands of a foreign power and kowtow to demands for regulatory annexation, is unacceptable.
They will probably go down to a big defeat in 2027, though, because I'd assume Labour would respond to a 4th defeat with some level of common sense, away from a hard Left position.
I would rather come to an arrangement that most people involved can live with.