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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though TMay won’t be the only main party leader fa
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though TMay won’t be the only main party leader facing a Brexit rebellion. Corbyn’s has one as well
This could be big. Indy reporting that some LAB MPs reveal they are ready to rescue TMay's Brexit deal in Commons vote. https://t.co/KYC0d9fiks
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Not really the kind of language that helps get a good deal. Basically saying you'll vote for any old crap.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6273095/Brexit-deal-TOMORROW-UK-government-approves-Monday.html
not sure I believe this
You could well have ensured a Withdrawal Agreement deal and a transition period to negotiate a FTA and saved May's premiership
Are you saying the conservatve party will withdraw the whip from their rebels -that will not happen
https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1050281713153261570
Time to wish everyone a pleasant nights rest
Good night folks
So, it answer your question, this person is honest whilst the Prime Minister is a bad liar.
https://twitter.com/Shadician/status/1051098519967322112
I'm sure May appreciates at least some people still looking at Corbyn's problems, because it is not as though they are non-existent, but I think on Brexit his issues pale in comparison to May's. More than anything else, his government isn't facing potentially imminent collapse whether or not a Brexit agreement passes the Commons, while May's is. That is so childish. I shall never understand this partisan attachment that says the only thing that matters is party loyalty - if an MP, on any side, thinks May's agreement is the best thing for the country they should vote for it, and if not they should not. A Labour MP who votes for it would in no way be endorsing the government's other policies, and there would certainly be fresh opportunities to bring it down, particularly if the DUP are made mad by whatever May chooses to do.
Honestly, while the parties would be expected to coalesce around differing positions on Brexit, it is such a vast and complicated issue it really is not the sort of thing that should end up with 100% of MPs on either side backing. If the parties are broad tents of support as they pretend to be, then on such an issue we really should see lots of rebels on both sides.
But no, people should lose the whip for voting their consciences on an issue of monumental importance because of an erroneous belief that it will actually prevent a new GE, as though a new GE is the only thing that matters. What if a GE doesn't result in a Labour government, but not backing something May offers results in no deal at the same time? Would it be so grand then.
This is not to say everyone should vote for whatever May comes back with. Lots of Tories seem very unhappy even with what was already on the table, and really should vote against if they think more is even worse, and if Labour MPs think it is not the best that can be achieved certainly they should not back it. But many think no deal is cataclysmic, and a GE is no guarantor of preventing that, so any MP who does fear no deal should think very carefully before they vote down an agreement, and certainly a lot harder than 'My party might win a GE if we have one now!'.
There will always be more opportunities to bring down the government, I think it has little chance of lasting the full term. But this Brexit issue it is far from clear that it can be delayed as many wish.
Whats so different with this ? .... oh
Frankly I am baffled it hasn't reached 48 by now, except for the fact no one else wants to take on the job right now despite what the claim about how terrible the options May is pursuing are, but I'm therefore not surprised if May and co just tune out such talk - the letters will come in or they won't, and she knows damn well she won't be around as PM much longer anyway (despite what they claim), so it is out of her hands and she'll just do what she thinks best now and wait for them come in regardless.
If it came to just that particular choice we cannot rule out the whole PLP and 75% PCP in the same lobby together.
But May will never get classic bounce, just May Way v Armageddon. At very least she’d have to concede 2nd ref before it got to that. By the time it comes to votes they will all be clued in on all other options And scenarios. This is just media turning up the hype. Move along, nothing to get excited about here.
It would force the Tories to swallow something that chokes them.
Unfortunately the road runs along a bridge which has not been completed yet, and the hot summer and low rain since has seen all the grass die off, so it is not very grassy either.
Then think about the atmosphere at the time of such a crucial vote in parliament. Labour will be really pushing the prospect of a general election if May is defeated and the government effectively collapses. Number 10 will be doing the same. It will be feverish.
Labour's members will be getting excited about the prospect of a chance to get their man into Downing Street regardless of how the polls currently look. They will be emailing their MPs and maybe passing motions at their constituency party to tell their MP their feeling. Some clever so and so will create a way to quickly email or tweet all the MPs who are seen to be wobbling and considering breaking the whip over this.
Now imagine if May wins the vote with the help of 10-20 Labour MPs. There won't just be a response from grassroots members but from their colleagues in parliament as well. They could well be pariahs. There are then two dangers for those MPs. The first of all is if the boundary changes go through. A number of these MPs will be potentially competing against a neighbouring MP for a new constituency they both have a geographical claim over. If one sitting Labour MP has opposed May's Brexit deal and the other has supported it then there will be no contest. It will be a walkover for the MP who opposed the Tories over Brexit.
The second risk for the MPs who back May's deal is facing a trigger ballot in their constituency arty. As a result of rule changes at this year's Labour conference it is now easier for Labour branches and union branches to effectively initiate a deselection effort. The charge against the MPs will be that they stopped Corbyn having his best chance at becoming PM and thrown away the chance to stop cuts to public services, Universal Credit and the privatisation of the NHS. Even quite popular MPs could have their work cut out getting through unscathed. If they do survive and indeed get re-elected, they will never be quite viewed in the same way again by members and by fellow Labour MPs.
To this day Ramsay MacDonald has a special place in Labour folklore as a result of forming a national government with the Tories. No-one wants to be a Ramsay Mac. Whatever the estimated numbers of Labour MPs who are currently considering supporting the government's deal right now, in the final reckoning the number will be much smaller.
Then Corbyn, by opposing the government could be propping it up.
And Snell, Smeeth, Flint et al, by supporting the government, may bring it down.
But then again, pretty much anything is...
Nothing can be more twisted than English Top Up Tuition Fees only going through because of SLAB votes while SLAB ensured Scottish students paid no fees.
The government of the day will be held responsible for anythng that goes through even if opposition MPs make it possible.
Oh, it’s the Independent.
Sigh...
https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1051216541759356928?s=19
What matters is what the SNP do. And if they SNP demand a remainer-friendly price, like a re-referendum, I'd have thought a lot of those Labour rebels would follow Sturgeon in refusing to vote for it without the concession. It's bad enough defying your own whip, but you definitely don't want to do that while getting your own supporters mad at you at the same time.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-labour/labour-plays-down-report-that-rebels-would-back-may-brexit-deal-idUSKCN1MK1LN
Given Eurosceptic Tories are only able to claim about 40 rebels would vote against May's Deal that would be enough to see May's Deal pass the Commons even if most Labour MPs, SNP, LD, PC, Green and DUP MPs voted against it
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-labour-party-eu-uk-remain-leave-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-a8581511.html
As Portillo has been saying for months, everything she touches get worse.
When the inevitable further capitulation surfaces from next week's EU meeting, there'll likely be a few more letters, a then: tory VoC... with the DUP likely 'clarifying' they will not back any Gov led by TMay. She's a goner.
Looking good.
ps Don't think Flinty is going to prop up any Tory gov..
Labour were throwing money at them and still they failed the public utterly
If it comes down to May’s Way or crash out, parliament will rally behind a second ref, that’s what rebels on all sides would plump for.
Who controls wording on second ref, executive or parliament? The starter for 10, from no. ten would be May’s deal or no deal. Opponents would seek to water that down into something else but Can they?
The only way to clear it would seem to be to call an election. I'm not sure it'll solve everything but at least someone will emerge with enough authority to begin cleaning up the mess.