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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Kavanaugh Conclusion: Trump voters own the GOP; he will be
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Kavanaugh Conclusion: Trump voters own the GOP; he will be nominated in 2020
Brett Kavanaugh will almost certainly be confirmed today as the newest member of the US Supreme Court. His behaviour in front of the Senate Committee – aggressive, threatening, overly emotional, highly partisan, evasive – would have been surprising for a nominee to an Executive branch position; as a candidate for the country’s highest court, where you might think that cool minds, sober judgement and lofty impartiality would be called for, it was extraordinary. You can see why Trump likes him though.
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*Sob*
Yep. Remind you of the behaviour of a parliamentary party this side of the pond? Though in this case its 'activists' not 'voters'.
Thinking specifically of the Republican voters for which it is a big issue (which probably goes beyond just the evangelicals although they are probably the main drivers) their actions make sense and are quite logical if you accept their ideas on abortion to begin with. Even if you accept and believe the worst accusations about Trump and Kavanaugh you can make an argument for the greater good based on their views on abortion.
Surrey it'd make sense for confirmation of judges to require a vote in the house rather than senate?
The Senate represents a shrinking rural minority that doesn't look like mainstream America. It can't go on. It's almost rotton bourgh time.
I have a feeling this was a good vote for the Democrats to lose. I can't see there being much joy in this victory for the Republicans when they think about it and having seen his petulant performance repeated and lampooned ad nauseam it may ironically prove a victory for the losers.
1. Not all polls give the same data as Gallup. Rasmussen, which performed very well at the 2016 election and tracks approval on a daily basis, gives a different picture - 51% approval rating and on an upward trend, significantly ahead of Obama at the same time in his presidency.
http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_oct05
2. This article assumes that most voters think that the way these charges were brought by the Senate was fair and reasonable, and then that it was unreasonable for Kavanaugh to respond to these allegations in the manner that he did - defending himself rather than making an impartial judgement. Again, there is polling evidence to suggest that voters by some majority do not think along these lines. Furthermore, if one looks beyond the narrow NYT/WaPo view on this, there are nunerous suggestions, some credible, some less so, that Ford's testimony is flawed on numerous counts.
3. That the Kavanaugh event will mobilise the democrat base more than the republican base. Again there is polling that suggests that the opposite is taking place, and in particular there is a dramatic increase in motivation from Republican women and a tailing off of motivation from Democrat women.
https://www.npr.org/2018/10/03/654015874/poll-amid-kavanaugh-confirmation-battle-democratic-enthusiasm-edge-evaporates?t=1538805575767
4. Kavanaugh was a worker in the Bush administration and would have been a Romney pick before he was nominated by Trump. He is as mainstream DC Republican as it gets and it seems highly possible that this has brought a lot of never-Trumpers back into the fold.
None of the above necessarily reflects my own views but my take from this is that I agree that this has helped cement Trump's position for 2020, but also believe that this will play well for the Reds in the midterms, and I have bet accordingly.
But having the least populated states decide everything in the Senate doesn’t seem to have been the plan, and is eroding democratic consent.
Nevertheless, Trump has two problems. Firstly, the parts of the US that are booming are either strongly Democrat (Washington State, Oregon and California), or equally Republican (Texas, the Dakotas). The Rust belt is still seeing the weakest growth numbers in the US. The polling from Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan should terrify him.
Secondly, white women. He won them by nine points in 2016. And his favourables there are now awful. He needs to get them back on side by 2020.
There will be no second vote, its over, we are leaving period.
And I speak as someone who thinks Roe v Wade is an abomination.
It's a view, I suppose ...
As Roger said, I think the Democrats will be the partisan winners of the Kavanaugh appointment and should see a boost particularly amongst women.
On the EU contingency planning article in the FT, that's a case of the EU turning the screws on No Deal while minimising damage to them. The EU will always be forcing the UK to agreement. No Deal isn't a viable medium term state, let alone a long term one.
The EU can have as much disruption as it wants
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45768848
Interesting qualifying. Will write it up now and probably give it a couple of hours for the markets to wake up. As an aside, Verstappen was 17 (19 with boost) to win yesterday. Imagine his odds will shorten a little (probably not hugely, but I'll see if it's layable).
Glad to see Hamilton topped third practice as well.
Hillary and Trump were both fairly awful in their own ways, but if you look at Hillary's ratings, they're pretty good the run-up to the campaign, then it's downhill from there:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/clinton_favorableunfavorable-1131.html
[Click "Max" on the graph.]
She's around +20 in early 2013, then zero by the time she announces she's running in mid-2015, then -15 by the election.
At least some of that may come down to her being exceedingly shit and annoying but she was pretty well-known beforehand, so it can't have come as a complete shock. So even if the Dems manage to pick a decent candidate this time, I wouldn't be surprised if they have pretty poor favourables by the time they get to the election.
It's not Trump voters (a sub set of the Republican coalition)that senators fear. As David points out the whole Republican base wants Kavanaugh nomination approved and therefore Republican senators naturally reflect that.
That is because, as Susan Collins said, the allegations made didn't hold water. Even Dr Ford's best friend repeatedly refused to corroborate them, including during the most recent FBI investigation.
Brett Kavanaugh doesn't appear very likeable to me and his demeanour before the Senate committee jarred. However, in the current era where everyone seems to emote at a drop of the hat, perhaps that fits the spirit of the times too.
Where I do agree with David Herdson is that the evangelicals are solidly behind Trump. Mike Pence buttresses that element of support and on an almost weekly basis the Trump administration espouses the pro-life position - just this week with regards to the rights of Downs Syndrome people.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1048455061251260416
Astounding just how much the wheels have come off that team.
The Supreme Court’s role depends upon consent. Appointing a naked partisan to ensure a majority on the court to entrench the interests of that minority endangers that consent.
What will happen under a Democratic president who has a majority in both Houses ?
We might find out in a couple of years’ time.
The sex of the nominee is irrelevant to their role. What is disqualificatory in one would be equally disqualificatory in the other.
I think he showed himself as unsuitable for the reason you point out, although frankly Americans seem to want naked partisans, but there have been plenty who criticised his emotional reaction as distinct from his partisanship. So while the argument you make is valid it is untrue that that is the argument all have been making.
Where I disagree with the first post is that I think had a woman behaved that emotionally she would not be confirmed even if some called it sexism.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States_by_judicial_appointments
The most appointed was the original 11 by Washington
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxZSP1Dc78Q
However even if the House and Senate go Democrat in the midterms as is increasingly possible (with maybe Manchin holding the balance of power) as Bill Clinton showed when the Democrats were trounced in 1994 but he was re elected in 1996 that does not necessarily doom his re election bid
The NHS Budget in 2019 is around 20% of Govt. spending.
Personally, I'd welcome another 100,000 of the Super-rich to the UK - and TRULY have the best free healthcare system in the world. But then, I'm not a spiteful lefty.
Scottish train troubles. The new Hitachi-built trains for Scotland, the Class 385s, are having some rather significant issues. The units are very late into service, partly because they were designed with windows that caused reflections that meant drivers saw multiple copies of signals.
Only a handful are in service now, but they were all withdrawn the other day after some significant issues with the brakes. The latest issues haven't been revealed, but last month a set of seven coaches (one train of four coaches, another of three) failed when the computer on one of of the trains turned off that train's brakes.
Ooops. Brake problems are not unusual on new trains (the Hitachi Class 800 is apparently having some issues as well), but failing with brakes off should never happen: brakes should fail on.
It is not an exercise of a ‘right’ when an unelected judiciary decide that voters cannot instruct their representatives on a subject of this nature. That is less freedom, not more. It is a big mistake to commend judicial activism when you happen to agree with the outcome.
If Kavanaugh overturns Roe v Wade because it is bad law, he will justify his position. If he does so for religious or social reasons, he should not be on the bench at all.
I do not give a monkeys about the legal/political theory.
The Republicans treatment of Obama in refusing to consider his nomination of Garland is evidence that the Republicans were already acting in an extreme, nothing is too outrageous, way before Trump's election. This is a result of the Tea Party revolution.
What's interesting about this is that he is a Zoomer, and the SNP are terrified that a precedent be set of "having another vote if your first referendum turns out to be shit"
I had the details wrong in my memory, but 41 votes used to be enough to prevent a nomination if the 41 felt strongly enough to filibuster.
The Democrats would have been better off saving their filibuster for Kavanaugh..
Like Hitler...
Trump's recklessness should guarantee that. But whether it will be before his re-election is anyone's guess.