Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The sum of all fears
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The sum of all fears
Nobody kicks a dead dog, Dale Carnegie noted. Based on that observation, we can conclude two things from the Conservative party conference. First, the government is very fearful that a fresh referendum is a runner. And secondly, Boris Johnson remains a serious and potent threat. Speaker after speaker at the Conservative party conference lined up to launch an attack on one or other of these.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Backing him a 1/3 seems super smart by me now.
And hmmm .....
Michel Barnier ..... is not sure that he will have a success story to point to in his main work for the last two years.
I'd quite like to know what his definition of success is .....
Good evening, everybody.
Put that way, sounds even more like Boris...
I hear this is a problem that people with the new iCrap phone are having to consider on a daily basis.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonkelly/2018/10/02/apple-iphone-xs-max-charging-battery-life-upgrade-price-cost-iphone-xr/#485229a21a07
Surely he would go down swinging by claiming The Last Jedi is a good film?
This is one reason why despite the very real likelihood of disaster No Deal has always been the likeliest outcome.
If it goes to the last minute, back no deal.
Which remains amusing when you consider he followed the Tory whip more times than David Cameron.
The first time that the PM has expressed the view that Brexit may not happen. Quite significant.
Asking for a friend.
In each of these scenarios, I think the UK government asks for an extension.
1. Terrify everyone with the dreadful consequences of No Deal. Aircraft grounded, food shortages, banking chaos, whatever. The worse the better. It may indeed mostly be true.
2. Set up a choice of "whatever she comes up with" vs No Deal vs No Brexit.
3. Dare everyone to risk the option that scares them most.
I did not respond to further comments because I was called away for domestic issues (a woman's work is never done). Nonetheless, thank you to all for the supportive posts.
As far as Brexit goes, I am prepared to wait and see what happens
For this reason, the real deadline is further away than it appears.
Small example: it took her two months to produce a reasonable Facebook video attempting to sell it, and by then it was far too little too late. Her enemies had got there first and it was on life support anyway.
She being convinced, herself, just isn't enough as PM. If she'd had the terrible two still with her they might have aggressively briefed and terrified a few colleagues into their place, but that wouldn't have worked either.
I'm far from convinced she's learnt this lesson, or ever will.
It is just interesting to see an admission that we may not Brexit from the very top of government.
The 2nd referendum chat really hasn't helped her. It's got a lot of influential people in the EU (who only talk to people who already agree with them, remember) very belligerent on Brexit, including those like Guy Verhofstadht, who smell blood.
I'd say No Deal is still as high a chance as 45%.
She hasn't. Well, she's learnt a little something, which is to "go with the flow" on the dance moves and be slightly less robotic, but she hasn't learnt anything politically.
Most treaties aren't subject to time pressure.
Although we may be past that point anyway.
1. Mrs May and M. Barnier are unable to reach an agreement.
2. The UK parliament will not agree to the agreement.
3. The EU parliament ditto.
I would discount 3, as it seems pretty unlikely. But which of 1 and 2 do you think the most likely to create No Deal? (Even better, give me probabilities!)
My personal view is that 1 is actually quite unlikely, despite everything that is said in the press. But 2 is quite likely indeed.
Johnson has said nothing and done nothing that would suggest an alternative strategy that does not close down sections of the economy. Two mass production car producers have said they are going to shut down after next march because of the uncertainty and reliability of the supply chain for a period.
Arm chair generals like you have succumbed to some kind of mass mental illness over Brexit where you are willing for the economy to go down the tubes for no reason. Britain will be a diminished power with a smaller economy, that is less able to demonstrate its power economically, politically and militarily. People like you are advocating that we in effect put sanctions on our own economy. Bonkers!
Winston Churchill
I can't be arsed working out percentages. It would involve a little bit of Venn diagramming.
I'm simply observing she's very slow to learn some very obvious lessons.
Inspiration to use dancing queen for entry to the podium
Confident speech warning the hard brexiteers push too hard and no brexit
Generous to Dianne Abbott and paid tribute to Jo Cox
Made a very clear distinction between labour mps and Corbyn's group
(I expect this theme to continue as it is easier to isolate the hard left)
Announced council house building by local authorities
Improved cancer prevention and treatments
Investment in the NHS and social care
Froze fuel duty and
Legislate for staff to retain tips
Hetrosexual civil partnerships
End to austerity
She still faces mountains in front of her but I bet she has a relaxed evening tonight with Philip in no 10
PS - If I missed anything please add it to the list
Also. If it is QMV, what incentive is there for a Nation which is outvoted on a Withdrawal Agreement to vote in favour of an FTA at a later date when they are still unhappy with the original terms of the withdrawal?
BTW I don't think all air traffic will stop. The issue I suspect is the uncertainty. If you buy a ticket three months ahead you won't know for certain if that flight will happen. Or else you can't buy the ticket at all.
However, I do think TM warning to hard brexiteers that they could see no brexit is a coded warning that rejection of her deal or no deal makes a second referendum very likely
If she gets a deal and Labour votes it down, Labour will own No Deal Brexit. Very, very unwise....which means they will probably do it.
The Leavers best chance of avoiding it is Blind Brexit. After that a #peoplesvote cannot include Remain as an option.
The simpler and better thing is membership but we rejected that.
Now whether they would actually do that - who knows? But there must be at least some reasonable chance that they might.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1047590380961783808?s=20
But if the hinge it on more people's vote bollocks it might push me to another leave vote out of spite. It's so pathetic and transparent in its intentions, insulting regarding all other votes we have ever taken, that I cannot respect it.
As to London properly prices. Maybe they should be properly priced?
That said, I think Leave would win a second referendum by a bigger margin than the first.
So that leaves three possible options: membership, vassal state or permanent transition.
Our eyes should keep focused on the prize. Almost all Brexit criticism is shitting ourselves about the transition.
A new Brexit "status quo" is no trouble at all, despite the propaganda.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7411667/theresa-may-push-lock-brexit-deal/
Precisely noone has explained how this happens with the Conservatives solidly in Government and with Leave being the bedrock of their members and voters.
no deal/ remain. Remain
EEA/remain tough
So we vote remain on the second occasion. Just imagine what happens next. Surely the Tories split. There is a continuity Brexit party and a Tory/LibDem/soft left thing, with Corbyn in charge for a bit.