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  • For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    By waiting. Wait for a few more weeks for May's Chequers offer to completely unravel in the face of EU political intransigence. Then let the letters go in. And then wait a bit longer in the hope that another challenger throws their hat in the ring to challenge May first, before he does so himself.
    You really do not know our system. I have explained it to you

    If TM lost a vnoc she would stand down and a full leadership contest would take place with at least 6 -8 candidates, one of course would be Boris. Televised hustings would take place and then a vote is taken by all conservative mps to put two of the candidates to the members. At present Boris has annoyed so many of his fellow colleagues it is doubtful he would get in the final two. However, if he did it is more than likely he would win

    The whole process would take 2 - 3 months and I would expect TM to be a caretaker pending the appointment of her successor.

    I hope that you accept that as a membership I do know the process
    Simple fact is, that isn’t what happened last time, how May got it.
    Last time Leadsome stood down. This time there will be a clamour from lots to stand. It will be a real contest
    Yes, Tory members will not allow another coronation unless it is an emergency with someone who is obviously only a temp (eg DD).

    I still maintain the idea that two Remainers can be put to the membership is fanciful - this is going to be a Remain vs Leave battle like everything else and each side will coalesce around one candidate which means the Leaver will win. To me the chances of Javid and Hunt etc rely on this contest taking place well after Brexit.

    If Raab for example resigns over May’s deal, he might be a shoo in. If Boris really can’t win he will throw his support to someone else and that person will almost be certain to make the final two.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2018

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    Because the alternative candidates are jostling for position like ferrets in a sack, in the most unedifying way?
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    This politician's party has just got walloped in Quebec:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45592997

    Pretty massive swings too.

    First time ever the centre right Coalition Avenir Quebec has won a majority in the province gaining 53 seats, it is the equivalent of the Tories winning a majority in Scotland.


    The governing Liberals lost 36 seats and the nationalist Parti Quebecois lost 19 seats and the small leftwing pro independence Quebec Solidaire gained 7
    It is somewhat more complex than that. But is a sea change for Quebec, and good for the long term future of Canadian Federalism. Politics there has long been pro-independence PQ vs anti-independence Liberals (which incidentally, encompasses Liberals, Conservative and NDP voters federally). The Liberals have 70% of the Anglophone vote.
    The PQ vote is gradually dying off. They have failed to attract the young, just banging on about independence all the time.
    The CAQ and QS have emerged as genuine right and left alternatives to both major parties by parking the independence issue and focussing instead on actual competence and policy.
    Which transforms the usual independence/federalist bickering which all too often became a proxy Francophone/Anglophone fight.
    Indeed but it has taken 38 years since Quebec's first independence referendum in 1980 for independence finally to be parked to one side and the PQ to no longer be in the two largest parties in the province, so Scotland has a while yet of independence/unionist bickering to go
    It may take Scotland that long. It is 50 years since the rise of the PQ. The young pro-Indy SNP voters will be around for a good few years.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    Africa over takes Asia as the most populated continent this century.

    Africa will overtake India + China + rest of Asia? Seriously?
    Yes, and much of that growth is baked in already, even if fertility drops precipitously, due to drops in child mortality, and increases in adult life expectancy:


    https://www.businessinsider.com/africas-population-explosion-will-change-humanity-2015-8
    Africa's population will top 3 billion? Seriously?
    I think the central projection is for about 2.3 billion, not 3 billion.
  • SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    By waiting. Wait for a few more weeks for May's Chequers offer to completely unravel in the face of EU political intransigence. Then let the letters go in. And then wait a bit longer in the hope that another challenger throws their hat in the ring to challenge May first, before he does so himself.
    You really do not know our system. I have explained it to you

    If TM lost a vnoc she would stand down and a full leadership contest would take place with at least 6 -8 candidates, one of course would be Boris. Televised hustings would take place and then a vote is taken by all conservative mps to put two of the candidates to the members. At present Boris has annoyed so many of his fellow colleagues it is doubtful he would get in the final two. However, if he did it is more than likely he would win

    The whole process would take 2 - 3 months and I would expect TM to be a caretaker pending the appointment of her successor.

    I hope that you accept that as a membership I do know the process
    Simple fact is, that isn’t what happened last time, how May got it.
    Last time Leadsome stood down. This time there will be a clamour from lots to stand. It will be a real contest
    Still possible candidates will withdrawal if MPs overwhelmingly endorse one of them, the whole thing very similar to end of Thatcher, crowning of Major in two weeks. The reason to believe this is because of the background, the unity required to quickly regroup in face of crisis. No deal with EU in October May falls much like Chamberlain. New leader goes to summit In November.

    There is absolutely no way May goes to both those summits. Long election thingies as you described only for straight after election defeats, not furnace of national crisis.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2018
    AndyJS said:

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    Because the alternative candidates are jostling for position like ferrets in a sack in the most unedifying way?
    Partly that, partly because the more they jostle the better she looks in comparison, and partly because as Ian Birrell writes (although he's arguing she'll leave before the 2022 election):

    I am no fan of May, but if she does pull off a deal the Westminster mood will change. She is stubborn, and there is no reason to think she would quit or be forced out (even if is her fault that parliament is paralysed after a dismal election performance and premature triggering of article 50). She could bask in success if the economy does not crash, and focus on the domestic agenda before handing over to the next generation before the 2022 election. This would give the Tories time to unite and attempt to rebuild bridges with younger generations betrayed by the stupidity of Brexit. There remains everything to play for in this extraordinary game of highest-stakes political poker.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/02/theresa-may-brexit-prime-minister-deal-tory
  • For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Who is the stop Boris unity candidate?

    Javid is the closest I can think of
    Javid who virtually nobody turned up to listen to this morning?

    At this point I'd say with the exceptions of Boris and JRM the only Cabinet members to have had a "good conference" are Hunt and Raab - But Raab is ahead because he was a Leaver and Con will be wary of going to another Remainer pretending to be a Leaver like they did with Theresa May.

    That will be Hunt's problem. Javid also has the same problem in addition to being too much like Continuity May and Hammond.
    Hunt hardly had a great conference after half of Europe's Ambassadors slagged off his speech
    Are you really a member? Hunt's problem isn't what he said, but that he's a tryhard. The next leader will have to be a true beleaver, not some watered down, lukewarm closet remainer.
    Can Hunts new nickname be Lukewarm? P l e a s e
    Better still: Wet Lukewarm *unt!
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    By waiting. Wait for a few more weeks for May's Chequers offer to completely unravel in the face of EU political intransigence. Then let the letters go in. And then wait a bit longer in the hope that another challenger throws their hat in the ring to challenge May first, before he does so himself.
    You really do not know our system. I have explained it to you

    If TM lost a vnoc she would stand down and a full leadership contest would take place with at least 6 -8 candidates, one of course would be Boris. Televised hustings would take place and then a vote is taken by all conservative mps to put two of the candidates to the members. At present Boris has annoyed so many of his fellow colleagues it is doubtful he would get in the final two. However, if he did it is more than likely he would win

    The whole process would take 2 - 3 months and I would expect TM to be a caretaker pending the appointment of her successor.

    I hope that you accept that as a membership I do know the process
    You are right but if someone had enough letters there is nothing to stop them ‘standing’ against May in the VONC. They can say that they are challenging her at that stage. So in theory Boris (or someone else) can get a group of letters, announce he is standing against May and trigger the vote. It would change the dynamic. I don’t expect it to happen like that but it could.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    Probably she will not mention Brexit or Chequers at all except in passing. If she talks about her vision of a deal she is toast. Says a lot when the PM cannot talk about the primary issue affecting the nation at her own conference.
  • I don’t understand all this talk coming out of the Tory conference about how well Corbyn and Labour did last week. Do Tories really believe that, or is it some unfathomable mind game? Labours conference last week was a disaster, as proven by polls showing not only the electorate stopped listening, but got spooked by the wild and half baked nature of the promised revolution. What Labour proposed would need an orchard of magic money trees to prevent real pain upon the hard working households and families of Britain, the Conservative under sixteens could demolish Corbyns labour all on their own.

    And yet, the donkey of a chancellor is trying to answer the questions the Labour conference set? The Labour conference only asked one question: when the writings on the wall, and the winds of change do blow, and it comes to your turn to lead, how can a party be so utterly inept as to produce a manifesto like that, And completely forego the turn at government?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    I don’t understand all this talk coming out of the Tory conference about how well Corbyn and Labour did last week. Do Tories really believe that, or is it some unfathomable mind game? Labours conference last week was a disaster, as proven by polls showing not only the electorate stopped listening, but got spooked by the wild and half baked nature of the promised revolution. What Labour proposed would need an orchard of magic money trees to prevent real pain upon the hard working households and families of Britain, the Conservative under sixteens could demolish Corbyns labour all on their own.

    And yet, the donkey of a chancellor is trying to answer the questions the Labour conference set? The Labour conference only asked one question: when the writings on the wall, and the winds of change do blow, and it comes to your turn to lead, how can a party be so utterly inept as to produce a manifesto like that, And completely forego the turn at government?

    You're referring to the poll after the conference that put Labour 5 points ahead? :)

    Personally I didn't think it was more than a workmanlike conference - it went a certain way to suggesting that we had an agenda for government, rather than being preoccupied with nationalisation or Brexit, but there was nothing very memorable. After the conference season I expect to see level pegging return, unless May is wonderful or terrible.
  • AndyJS said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Only 11 and a bit years to go before China's population peaks according to this. I think the UK population is expected to still be rising at that time.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-population-to-peak-to-1-45-billion-by-2030/articleshow/57603275.cms

    India will have overtaken China as the world's largest population in a few decades
    Africa over takes Asia as the most populated continent this century.

    Africa will overtake India + China + rest of Asia? Seriously?
    Yes, and much of that growth is baked in already, even if fertility drops precipitously, due to drops in child mortality, and increases in adult life expectancy:


    https://www.businessinsider.com/africas-population-explosion-will-change-humanity-2015-8
    Africa's population will top 3 billion? Seriously?
    I think the central projection is for about 2.3 billion, not 3 billion.
    The UN projections for 2100 are Asia 4.7 billion and Africa 4.2 billion. Asia still ahead of Africa.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    This politician's party has just got walloped in Quebec:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45592997

    I don't live in Canada and even I know food is bloody expensive there...$75 for one maybe, but even then.
    I don't like the pop quiz approach to politicians, tempting though it is for journalists. I shop in supermarkets 2-3 times a week, but I'm not sure I could give an instant answer to the amount needed to feed a family of 3, let alone the answer that happens to fit the basis for the question. And of course it'll only get publicised if you get it wrong.
    Were you ever subject to such a quiz?
    Don't recall one, fortunately. I wouldn't have done well - I generally buy own-brand cheap stuff, but don't recall the exact prices.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    I'm sure she will.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    I'm sure she will.
    The response will be no doubt almost "Iain Duncan Smith mere weeks before he was summarily defenestrated" levels of ovation.
  • For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    You really don't know the party if you think she'll be booed at Conference.
  • I don’t understand all this talk coming out of the Tory conference about how well Corbyn and Labour did last week. Do Tories really believe that, or is it some unfathomable mind game? Labours conference last week was a disaster, as proven by polls showing not only the electorate stopped listening, but got spooked by the wild and half baked nature of the promised revolution. What Labour proposed would need an orchard of magic money trees to prevent real pain upon the hard working households and families of Britain, the Conservative under sixteens could demolish Corbyns labour all on their own.

    And yet, the donkey of a chancellor is trying to answer the questions the Labour conference set? The Labour conference only asked one question: when the writings on the wall, and the winds of change do blow, and it comes to your turn to lead, how can a party be so utterly inept as to produce a manifesto like that, And completely forego the turn at government?

    You're referring to the poll after the conference that put Labour 5 points ahead? :)

    Personally I didn't think it was more than a workmanlike conference - it went a certain way to suggesting that we had an agenda for government, rather than being preoccupied with nationalisation or Brexit, but there was nothing very memorable. After the conference season I expect to see level pegging return, unless May is wonderful or terrible.
    I don’t want to bare my Tusks, but are you cherry picking polls to buttress your spin?
    The polls. There needs to be polling bounce between the conferences, in the trend between the polls there honestly was not one. It points to a failed conference. One which oddness spooked voters.
    The narrative, over the summer and autumn, is of Labour losing ground, losing listeners and switchers, not gaining.
    The politics is a manifesto inspired by that conference will require an orchard of magic money trees, a group of bright fourteen year olds would be able to dismantle Labours economic policy in the first week of the next general election campaign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    This politician's party has just got walloped in Quebec:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45592997

    Pretty massive swings too.

    First time ever the centre right Coalition Avenir Quebec has won a majority in the province gaining 53 seats, it is the equivalent of the Tories winning a majority in Scotland.


    The governing Liberals lost 36 seats and the nationalist Parti Quebecois lost 19 seats and the small leftwing pro independence Quebec Solidaire gained 7
    It is somewhat more complex than that. But is a sea change for Quebec, and good for the long term future of Canadian Federalism. Politics there has long been pro-independence PQ vs anti-independence Liberals (which incidentally, encompasses Liberals, Conservative and NDP voters federally). The Liberals have 70% of the Anglophone vote.
    The PQ vote is gradually dying off. They have failed to attract the young, just banging on about independence all the time.
    The CAQ and QS have emerged as genuine right and left alternatives to both major parties by parking the independence issue and focussing instead on actual competence and policy.
    Which transforms the usual independence/federalist bickering which all too often became a proxy Francophone/Anglophone fight.
    Indeed but it has taken 38 years since Quebec's first independence referendum in 1980 for independence finally to be parked to one side and the PQ to no longer be in the two largest parties in the province, so Scotland has a while yet of independence/unionist bickering to go
    It may take Scotland that long. It is 50 years since the rise of the PQ. The young pro-Indy SNP voters will be around for a good few years.
    So we only have to wait until about 2052 then for normal service to be resumed in Scotland!
  • For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    I'm sure she will.
    The response will be no doubt almost "Iain Duncan Smith mere weeks before he was summarily defenestrated" levels of ovation.
    I love the word defenestrate. Conjures images of pips being cut off shoulders as you have to stand there.
  • SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    By waiting. Wait for a few more weeks for May's Chequers offer to completely unravel in the face of EU political intransigence. Then let the letters go in. And then wait a bit longer in the hope that another challenger throws their hat in the ring to challenge May first, before he does so himself.
    You really do not know our system. I have explained it to you

    If TM lost a vnoc she would stand down and a full leadership contest would take place with at least 6 -8 candidates, one of course would be Boris. Televised hustings would take place and then a vote is taken by all conservative mps to put two of the candidates to the members. At present Boris has annoyed so many of his fellow colleagues it is doubtful he would get in the final two. However, if he did it is more than likely he would win

    The whole process would take 2 - 3 months and I would expect TM to be a caretaker pending the appointment of her successor.

    I hope that you accept that as a membership I do know the process
    Simple fact is, that isn’t what happened last time, how May got it.
    Last time Leadsome stood down. This time there will be a clamour from lots to stand. It will be a real contest
    Yes, Tory members will not allow another coronation unless it is an emergency with someone who is obviously only a temp (eg DD).

    I still maintain the idea that two Remainers can be put to the membership is fanciful - this is going to be a Remain vs Leave battle like everything else and each side will coalesce around one candidate which means the Leaver will win. To me the chances of Javid and Hunt etc rely on this contest taking place well after Brexit.

    If Raab for example resigns over May’s deal, he might be a shoo in. If Boris really can’t win he will throw his support to someone else and that person will almost be certain to make the final two.
    The biggest national crisis since 1940, and you’re ring fencing a few Thursday afternoons to design the T shirts in a long drawn out internal leadership campaign?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited October 2018

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    You really don't know the party if you think she'll be booed at Conference.
    I don't know... I've got a feeling the mood within the Tory membership is a lot more "mutinous" than most people realize...

    I doubt she'll be booed but... Anything could happen at the moment, IMO.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited October 2018
    Alright stop, collaborate and listen... Introducing Theresa May's No Deal Brexit

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjEiB59yn1Q
  • For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    Probably she will not mention Brexit or Chequers at all except in passing. If she talks about her vision of a deal she is toast. Says a lot when the PM cannot talk about the primary issue affecting the nation at her own conference.
    If she don’t take this moment to chuck Chequers publically on that stage in front that auto queue, she’s toast.
    It’s not Boris line alone, chuck Chequers, Vince Cable said it, Farage said it, Labour Party conference said it, Salzburg said it. She cant stand by Chequers tommorow in the speech, and immediately afterwards in negotiation rooms row back on what she just said and received standing ovation for.
    No. No she can’t. That’s precisely misbehaviour shredding her credibility with everyone.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Question: is there a correlation between those who want a second referendum and those who supported Remain in the first one? If so, I don't know how much credence we can give to these predictions.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    FPT on Galileo... If you adopt the position, pour la vue de nez, that Williamson is misinformed or ignorant about everything except fireplaces you won't go far wrong.

    The Falklands and Ascension Galileo facilities are "Sensor Stations". They download telemetry and relay it to the control centres. They provide NO uplink or control or localised position information. If Galileo lost access to these facilities it means there would be an area over the South Atlantic where data would not be available. As Galileo satellites have an orbital period of 14 hours and 'repeat cycle' of 10 days the black spot would only be a relatively small percentage of each satellite's cycle.

    In reality, if Galileo where to be kicked out of the FI and ASI then they would probably build new Sensor Stations on the coast of Chile or Argentina (who would love to fuck us over on this matter) and Cape Verde.

    Finally, while the satellite payloads are manufactured the UK they are not made by the UK government owned and directed Royal British Satellite Factory they are made by Airbus Space and Defense. So while the British government could certainly do a Putin/Mugabe style expropriation of the facility it could not stop Airbus using the intellectual property to make them elsewhere.

    In conclusion, Willamson is, as usual, talking absolute shit fuelled by crass stupidity.

    This theme of Galileo does reappear quite frequently in a squall of ill informed speculation. Maybe I'll write a header on it...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    I'll offer you good odds if you want to bet on that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    AndyJS said:

    Question: is there a correlation between those who want a second referendum and those who supported Remain in the first one? If so, I don't know how much credence we can give to these predictions.
    How many Brexit supporters are happy with the way things are going?

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1047147174054780928
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    I doubt the Euro, tell 20% unemployment Greece and 16% unemployment Spain how that works
    Spain's employment rate is much higher now than when it joined the Euro.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    I think it would require the deaths of around 310 MPs.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Question: is there a correlation between those who want a second referendum and those who supported Remain in the first one? If so, I don't know how much credence we can give to these predictions.
    How many Brexit supporters are happy with the way things are going?

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1047147174054780928
    I was a Remain voter, although a less than enthusiastic one. The EU was always going to make things as difficult as possible for the UK following the Leave result.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    By waiting. Wait for a few more weeks for May's Chequers offer to completely unravel in the face of EU political intransigence. Then let the letters go in. And then wait a bit longer in the hope that another challenger throws their hat in the ring to challenge May first, before he does so himself.
    You really do not know our system. I have explained it to you

    If TM lost a vnoc she would stand down and a full leadership contest would take place with at least 6 -8 candidates, one of course would be Boris. Televised hustings would take place and then a vote is taken by all conservative mps to put two of the candidates to the members. At present Boris has annoyed so many of his fellow colleagues it is doubtful he would get in the final two. However, if he did it is more than likely he would win

    The whole process would take 2 - 3 months and I would expect TM to be a caretaker pending the appointment of her successor.

    I hope that you accept that as a membership I do know the process
    You are right but if someone had enough letters there is nothing to stop them ‘standing’ against May in the VONC. They can say that they are challenging her at that stage. So in theory Boris (or someone else) can get a group of letters, announce he is standing against May and trigger the vote. It would change the dynamic. I don’t expect it to happen like that but it could.
    They could.

    But the impact of doing so would be to make it a de facto choice between Theresa May and said challenger. So, if JRM or Johnson were to "challenge" Theresa May, then it would likely cause those on the pro-EU side of the party to back her.

    One third of the parliamentary Conservative Party would like someone more Eurosceptic than TM. One third would like someone more conciliatory to the EU. And one third just wants to get Brexit behind us as soon as possible. (And also realises that Britain's relationship with the EU will evolve over the next decade in any case.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    Another Brexit campaigner suffering from ennui.
    https://twitter.com/tim_r_dawson/status/1047263814054531072?s=21
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    GIN1138 said:

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    You really don't know the party if you think she'll be booed at Conference.
    I don't know... I've got a feeling the mood within the Tory membership is a lot more "mutinous" than most people realize...

    I doubt she'll be booed but... Anything could happen at the moment, IMO.
    She will get a great reception unless she starts talking about her Brexit deal. If she does, all bets are off. Suspect she will only mention Brexit in passing and with generalities which is pretty pathetic.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    Probably she will not mention Brexit or Chequers at all except in passing. If she talks about her vision of a deal she is toast. Says a lot when the PM cannot talk about the primary issue affecting the nation at her own conference.
    If she don’t take this moment to chuck Chequers publically on that stage in front that auto queue, she’s toast.
    It’s not Boris line alone, chuck Chequers, Vince Cable said it, Farage said it, Labour Party conference said it, Salzburg said it. She cant stand by Chequers tommorow in the speech, and immediately afterwards in negotiation rooms row back on what she just said and received standing ovation for.
    No. No she can’t. That’s precisely misbehaviour shredding her credibility with everyone.
    I think it is now obvious that May was not upset at the EU for rejecting Chequers- she was upset that they embarrassed her then when she told them she was going to climb down later. The only reason for her to keep pushing Chequers is to pave the way for a bigger set of concessions and that is why she won’t talk about CETA. Customs Union and perpetual EU control is what she will offer. And the Commons will reject it.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OT interesting take on Brett Kavanaugh in the Telegraph. ABP on an incident from the Starr investigation into Bill Clinton.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/my-battle-brett-kavanaugh-over-truth-ambrose-evans-pritchard/

    Current prices are:
    3/10 Kavanaugh to be confirmed
    21/10 not to be
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    The secret barrister was scooped by pb's very own rpjs two threads ago.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    OT interesting take on Brett Kavanaugh in the Telegraph. ABP on an incident from the Starr investigation into Bill Clinton.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/my-battle-brett-kavanaugh-over-truth-ambrose-evans-pritchard/

    Current prices are:
    3/10 Kavanaugh to be confirmed
    21/10 not to be

    Ambrose E-P doesn't write either clearly or concisely. His story is almost indecipherable
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    That Boris J is a complete piece of shit isn't in doubt but what was in the balance was the condition of the post Cameron Tory party. After the whooping and cheering we heard as he stabbed Mrs May repeatedly in the back answered it pretty definitively.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    I'm sure she will.
    The response will be no doubt almost "Iain Duncan Smith mere weeks before he was summarily defenestrated" levels of ovation.
    I love the word defenestrate. Conjures images of pips being cut off shoulders as you have to stand there.
    Not if you know,what it means, it doesn't.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    Roger said:

    That Boris J is a complete piece of shit isn't in doubt but what was in the balance was the condition of the post Cameron Tory party. After the whooping and cheering we heard as he stabbed Mrs May repeatedly in the back answered it pretty definitively.

    Both he and the Tories have quite some way to go before they measure down to Trump and his base:

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-mocks-christine-blasey-ford-testimony-make-america-great-again-rally-mississippi-landers-center-2018-10-02/

    Imitating Ford, Mr. Trump added, "But I had one beer -- that's the only thing I remember." At that point the crowd erupted in cheers and applause. Mr. Trump said "a man's life is shattered," referencing Kavanaugh, and "these are really evil people."

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    edited October 2018
    Roger said:

    OT interesting take on Brett Kavanaugh in the Telegraph. ABP on an incident from the Starr investigation into Bill Clinton.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/my-battle-brett-kavanaugh-over-truth-ambrose-evans-pritchard/

    Current prices are:
    3/10 Kavanaugh to be confirmed
    21/10 not to be

    Ambrose E-P doesn't write either clearly or concisely. His story is almost indecipherable
    Summarising, Kavanaugh covered up the murder of Foster (presumably by the Clintons).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Ishmael_Z said:

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    I'm sure she will.
    The response will be no doubt almost "Iain Duncan Smith mere weeks before he was summarily defenestrated" levels of ovation.
    I love the word defenestrate. Conjures images of pips being cut off shoulders as you have to stand there.
    Not if you know,what it means, it doesn't.
    +1
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    OK, so I invaded Scotland again (second time within the last month!).

    Yesterday did the Shotts line from Edinburgh to Glasgow, and today added the Gourock, Largs, and Ardrossan branches and the Troon to Kilmarnock line. Slumming it in Glasgow tonight before switching to Edinburgh tomorrow :)

    The Shotts line will be electrified in its entirety from next year. Does that mean you have to do it again?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Ishmael_Z said:

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    I'm sure she will.
    The response will be no doubt almost "Iain Duncan Smith mere weeks before he was summarily defenestrated" levels of ovation.
    I love the word defenestrate. Conjures images of pips being cut off shoulders as you have to stand there.
    Not if you know,what it means, it doesn't.
    It's not always fatal.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/defenestration-of-prague-window
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Just watched Guy Verhofstadt's speech - the one that was being looked down on on here yesterday. What he said was a lot more logical in context. It was pretty clear that he was specifically cheesed off with the Conservatives. Hard to say if he is typical of MEPS. But it isn't hard to see why it might be a common view.

    Brexit was never a good idea but it didn't have to be implemented in such a ham fisted way.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT on Galileo... If you adopt the position, pour la vue de nez, that Williamson is misinformed or ignorant about everything except fireplaces you won't go far wrong.

    The Falklands and Ascension Galileo facilities are "Sensor Stations". They download telemetry and relay it to the control centres. They provide NO uplink or control or localised position information. If Galileo lost access to these facilities it means there would be an area over the South Atlantic where data would not be available. As Galileo satellites have an orbital period of 14 hours and 'repeat cycle' of 10 days the black spot would only be a relatively small percentage of each satellite's cycle.

    In reality, if Galileo where to be kicked out of the FI and ASI then they would probably build new Sensor Stations on the coast of Chile or Argentina (who would love to fuck us over on this matter) and Cape Verde.

    Finally, while the satellite payloads are manufactured the UK they are not made by the UK government owned and directed Royal British Satellite Factory they are made by Airbus Space and Defense. So while the British government could certainly do a Putin/Mugabe style expropriation of the facility it could not stop Airbus using the intellectual property to make them elsewhere.

    In conclusion, Willamson is, as usual, talking absolute shit fuelled by crass stupidity.

    This theme of Galileo does reappear quite frequently in a squall of ill informed speculation. Maybe I'll write a header on it...

    The lack of knowledge about modern technology in Parliament is actually rather sweet. Personally I read the comments on The Register website after the latest Government technology announcements, and have to stop myself laughing at the replies by actual experts. Having a PPE or a degree in Law or the Classics can't make a civil servant or cabinet minister an expert in something which is moving forward so fast.. Or the EU, manufacturing, house building, finance, banking and hedge funds, agriculture and fishing,....
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    AndyJS said:

    Question: is there a correlation between those who want a second referendum and those who supported Remain in the first one? If so, I don't know how much credence we can give to these predictions.
    Who cares?
    Here are some more difficult questions:

    "Is there a majority in parliament for leaving the EU without a deal? No. Is there a majority for staying in the single market Norway-fashion for now? No. Is there a majority for Theresa May’s Chequers proposals? No. Is there a majority for a Canadian-style free trade agreement? No. Is there a majority for a second referendum? No. And is there a majority for calling a general election? No.
    There isn’t a majority for anything."

    The only answer is a People's Vote.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    AndyJS said:

    Question: is there a correlation between those who want a second referendum and those who supported Remain in the first one? If so, I don't know how much credence we can give to these predictions.
    Who cares?
    Here are some more difficult questions:

    "Is there a majority in parliament for leaving the EU without a deal? No. Is there a majority for staying in the single market Norway-fashion for now? No. Is there a majority for Theresa May’s Chequers proposals? No. Is there a majority for a Canadian-style free trade agreement? No. Is there a majority for a second referendum? No. And is there a majority for calling a general election? No.
    There isn’t a majority for anything."

    The only answer is a People's Vote.
    But the isn't according to you, a majority in Parliament for a second referendum. That makes it hard to have one.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    OchEye said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT on Galileo... If you adopt the position, pour la vue de nez, that Williamson is misinformed or ignorant about everything except fireplaces you won't go far wrong.

    The Falklands and Ascension Galileo facilities are "Sensor Stations". They download telemetry and relay it to the control centres. They provide NO uplink or control or localised position information. If Galileo lost access to these facilities it means there would be an area over the South Atlantic where data would not be available. As Galileo satellites have an orbital period of 14 hours and 'repeat cycle' of 10 days the black spot would only be a relatively small percentage of each satellite's cycle.

    In reality, if Galileo where to be kicked out of the FI and ASI then they would probably build new Sensor Stations on the coast of Chile or Argentina (who would love to fuck us over on this matter) and Cape Verde.

    Finally, while the satellite payloads are manufactured the UK they are not made by the UK government owned and directed Royal British Satellite Factory they are made by Airbus Space and Defense. So while the British government could certainly do a Putin/Mugabe style expropriation of the facility it could not stop Airbus using the intellectual property to make them elsewhere.

    In conclusion, Willamson is, as usual, talking absolute shit fuelled by crass stupidity.

    This theme of Galileo does reappear quite frequently in a squall of ill informed speculation. Maybe I'll write a header on it...

    The lack of knowledge about modern technology in Parliament is actually rather sweet. Personally I read the comments on The Register website after the latest Government technology announcements, and have to stop myself laughing at the replies by actual experts. Having a PPE or a degree in Law or the Classics can't make a civil servant or cabinet minister an expert in something which is moving forward so fast.. Or the EU, manufacturing, house building, finance, banking and hedge funds, agriculture and fishing,....
    There is a recent book called Bluffocracy which blames the PPE degree in particular for producing politicians, civil servants and journalists adept at quickly mastering briefs well enough for debate (or last minute essays at Oxford) but with no understanding.
    https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/bluffocracy
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,507

    I don’t understand all this talk coming out of the Tory conference about how well Corbyn and Labour did last week. Do Tories really believe that, or is it some unfathomable mind game? Labours conference last week was a disaster, as proven by polls showing not only the electorate stopped listening, but got spooked by the wild and half baked nature of the promised revolution. What Labour proposed would need an orchard of magic money trees to prevent real pain upon the hard working households and families of Britain, the Conservative under sixteens could demolish Corbyns labour all on their own.

    And yet, the donkey of a chancellor is trying to answer the questions the Labour conference set? The Labour conference only asked one question: when the writings on the wall, and the winds of change do blow, and it comes to your turn to lead, how can a party be so utterly inept as to produce a manifesto like that, And completely forego the turn at government?

    You're referring to the poll after the conference that put Labour 5 points ahead? :)

    Personally I didn't think it was more than a workmanlike conference - it went a certain way to suggesting that we had an agenda for government, rather than being preoccupied with nationalisation or Brexit, but there was nothing very memorable. After the conference season I expect to see level pegging return, unless May is wonderful or terrible.
    I don’t want to bare my Tusks, but are you cherry picking polls to buttress your spin?
    Are you the guy that runs Donald’s instagram?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,507

    Another Brexit campaigner suffering from ennui.
    https://twitter.com/tim_r_dawson/status/1047263814054531072?s=21

    You need to get a sense of humour.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677

    OchEye said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT on Galileo... If you adopt the position, pour la vue de nez, that Williamson is misinformed or ignorant about everything except fireplaces you won't go far wrong.

    The Falklands and Ascension Galileo facilities are "Sensor Stations". They download telemetry and relay it to the control centres. They provide NO uplink or control or localised position information. If Galileo lost access to these facilities it means there would be an area over the South Atlantic where data would not be available. As Galileo satellites have an orbital period of 14 hours and 'repeat cycle' of 10 days the black spot would only be a relatively small percentage of each satellite's cycle.

    In reality, if Galileo where to be kicked out of the FI and ASI then they would probably build new Sensor Stations on the coast of Chile or Argentina (who would love to fuck us over on this matter) and Cape Verde.

    Finally, while the satellite payloads are manufactured the UK they are not made by the UK government owned and directed Royal British Satellite Factory they are made by Airbus Space and Defense. So while the British government could certainly do a Putin/Mugabe style expropriation of the facility it could not stop Airbus using the intellectual property to make them elsewhere.

    In conclusion, Willamson is, as usual, talking absolute shit fuelled by crass stupidity.

    This theme of Galileo does reappear quite frequently in a squall of ill informed speculation. Maybe I'll write a header on it...

    The lack of knowledge about modern technology in Parliament is actually rather sweet. Personally I read the comments on The Register website after the latest Government technology announcements, and have to stop myself laughing at the replies by actual experts. Having a PPE or a degree in Law or the Classics can't make a civil servant or cabinet minister an expert in something which is moving forward so fast.. Or the EU, manufacturing, house building, finance, banking and hedge funds, agriculture and fishing,....
    There is a recent book called Bluffocracy which blames the PPE degree in particular for producing politicians, civil servants and journalists adept at quickly mastering briefs well enough for debate (or last minute essays at Oxford) but with no understanding.
    https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/bluffocracy
    Are you a medium sized country let down by your leaders? Have you been misold PPE?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537



    If she don’t take this moment to chuck Chequers publically on that stage in front that auto queue, she’s toast.
    It’s not Boris line alone, chuck Chequers, Vince Cable said it, Farage said it, Labour Party conference said it, Salzburg said it. She cant stand by Chequers tommorow in the speech, and immediately afterwards in negotiation rooms row back on what she just said and received standing ovation for.
    No. No she can’t. That’s precisely misbehaviour shredding her credibility with everyone.

    Andf her behaviour up to now leads you to think that's impossible because...?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited October 2018

    AndyJS said:

    Question: is there a correlation between those who want a second referendum and those who supported Remain in the first one? If so, I don't know how much credence we can give to these predictions.
    Who cares?
    Here are some more difficult questions:

    "Is there a majority in parliament for leaving the EU without a deal? No. Is there a majority for staying in the single market Norway-fashion for now? No. Is there a majority for Theresa May’s Chequers proposals? No. Is there a majority for a Canadian-style free trade agreement? No. Is there a majority for a second referendum? No. And is there a majority for calling a general election? No.
    There isn’t a majority for anything."

    The only answer is a People's Vote.
    Again, with weary patience, there does not have to be a majority in Parliament for leaving with no deal. It happens by default next March unless we sign a deal or agree with the EU that we can withdraw article 50.

    People who argue otherwise increasingly remind me of Cnut the Great.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    philiph said:

    AndyJS said:

    Question: is there a correlation between those who want a second referendum and those who supported Remain in the first one? If so, I don't know how much credence we can give to these predictions.
    Who cares?
    Here are some more difficult questions:

    "Is there a majority in parliament for leaving the EU without a deal? No. Is there a majority for staying in the single market Norway-fashion for now? No. Is there a majority for Theresa May’s Chequers proposals? No. Is there a majority for a Canadian-style free trade agreement? No. Is there a majority for a second referendum? No. And is there a majority for calling a general election? No.
    There isn’t a majority for anything."

    The only answer is a People's Vote.
    But the isn't according to you, a majority in Parliament for a second referendum. That makes it hard to have one.
    It was a quote from Daniel Finkelstein's article (hence the "quote" marks).
    It's generally recognised by all but the lunatic fringe that No Deal is simply unacceptable and yet is becoming the default if nothing else is agreed.
    A People's Vote is a way out, maybe the only way out of this mess.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Doethur, bit harsh on Canute, who was showing he knew the limits of his power.

    A second referendum remains possible, but, as you suggest, it does require A Thing to occur. Without that, we leave by default.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,507
    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT on Galileo... If you adopt the position, pour la vue de nez, that Williamson is misinformed or ignorant about everything except fireplaces you won't go far wrong.

    The Falklands and Ascension Galileo facilities are "Sensor Stations". They download telemetry and relay it to the control centres. They provide NO uplink or control or localised position information. If Galileo lost access to these facilities it means there would be an area over the South Atlantic where data would not be available. As Galileo satellites have an orbital period of 14 hours and 'repeat cycle' of 10 days the black spot would only be a relatively small percentage of each satellite's cycle.

    In reality, if Galileo where to be kicked out of the FI and ASI then they would probably build new Sensor Stations on the coast of Chile or Argentina (who would love to fuck us over on this matter) and Cape Verde.

    Finally, while the satellite payloads are manufactured the UK they are not made by the UK government owned and directed Royal British Satellite Factory they are made by Airbus Space and Defense. So while the British government could certainly do a Putin/Mugabe style expropriation of the facility it could not stop Airbus using the intellectual property to make them elsewhere.

    In conclusion, Willamson is, as usual, talking absolute shit fuelled by crass stupidity.

    This theme of Galileo does reappear quite frequently in a squall of ill informed speculation. Maybe I'll write a header on it...

    My takeaway from that is that the UK is a significant contributor to Galileo and if it were no longer part of the programme it would cause significant inconvenience to the EU.

    Meanwhile, we have the technology, resources and expertise to do it ourselves as well.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Doethur, bit harsh on Canute, who was showing he knew the limits of his power.

    A second referendum remains possible, but, as you suggest, it does require A Thing to occur. Without that, we leave by default.

    Yes, but I thought the comparison would tide us over and be something even those least informed about the realities of the situation could grasp.
  • Anyone think the conference is going well for the tories? It seems like a car crash in slow motion.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    OchEye said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT on Galileo... If you adopt the position, pour la vue de nez, that Williamson is misinformed or ignorant about everything except fireplaces you won't go far wrong.

    The Falklands and Ascension Galileo facilities are "Sensor Stations". They download telemetry and relay it to the control centres. They provide NO uplink or control or localised position information. If Galileo lost access to these facilities it means there would be an area over the South Atlantic where data would not be available. As Galileo satellites have an orbital period of 14 hours and 'repeat cycle' of 10 days the black spot would only be a relatively small percentage of each satellite's cycle.

    In reality, if Galileo where to be kicked out of the FI and ASI then they would probably build new Sensor Stations on the coast of Chile or Argentina (who would love to fuck us over on this matter) and Cape Verde.

    Finally, while the satellite payloads are manufactured the UK they are not made by the UK government owned and directed Royal British Satellite Factory they are made by Airbus Space and Defense. So while the British government could certainly do a Putin/Mugabe style expropriation of the facility it could not stop Airbus using the intellectual property to make them elsewhere.

    In conclusion, Willamson is, as usual, talking absolute shit fuelled by crass stupidity.

    This theme of Galileo does reappear quite frequently in a squall of ill informed speculation. Maybe I'll write a header on it...

    The lack of knowledge about modern technology in Parliament is actually rather sweet. Personally I read the comments on The Register website after the latest Government technology announcements, and have to stop myself laughing at the replies by actual experts. Having a PPE or a degree in Law or the Classics can't make a civil servant or cabinet minister an expert in something which is moving forward so fast.. Or the EU, manufacturing, house building, finance, banking and hedge funds, agriculture and fishing,....
    There is a recent book called Bluffocracy which blames the PPE degree in particular for producing politicians, civil servants and journalists adept at quickly mastering briefs well enough for debate (or last minute essays at Oxford) but with no understanding.
    https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/bluffocracy
    We have no need of experts. The great English tradition of bumbling amateurism continues.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT on Galileo... If you adopt the position, pour la vue de nez, that Williamson is misinformed or ignorant about everything except fireplaces you won't go far wrong.

    The Falklands and Ascension Galileo facilities are "Sensor Stations". They download telemetry and relay it to the control centres. They provide NO uplink or control or localised position information. If Galileo lost access to these facilities it means there would be an area over the South Atlantic where data would not be available. As Galileo satellites have an orbital period of 14 hours and 'repeat cycle' of 10 days the black spot would only be a relatively small percentage of each satellite's cycle.

    In reality, if Galileo where to be kicked out of the FI and ASI then they would probably build new Sensor Stations on the coast of Chile or Argentina (who would love to fuck us over on this matter) and Cape Verde.

    Finally, while the satellite payloads are manufactured the UK they are not made by the UK government owned and directed Royal British Satellite Factory they are made by Airbus Space and Defense. So while the British government could certainly do a Putin/Mugabe style expropriation of the facility it could not stop Airbus using the intellectual property to make them elsewhere.

    In conclusion, Willamson is, as usual, talking absolute shit fuelled by crass stupidity.

    This theme of Galileo does reappear quite frequently in a squall of ill informed speculation. Maybe I'll write a header on it...

    My takeaway from that is that the UK is a significant contributor to Galileo and if it were no longer part of the programme it would cause significant inconvenience to the EU.

    Meanwhile, we have the technology, resources and expertise to do it ourselves as well.
    How will we get satellites into space? Will Boris fart them up there from our new outer hebredies space port.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Foxy said:

    OchEye said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT on Galileo... If you adopt the position, pour la vue de nez, that Williamson is misinformed or ignorant about everything except fireplaces you won't go far wrong.

    The Falklands and Ascension Galileo facilities are "Sensor Stations". They download telemetry and relay it to the control centres. They provide NO uplink or control or localised position information. If Galileo lost access to these facilities it means there would be an area over the South Atlantic where data would not be available. As Galileo satellites have an orbital period of 14 hours and 'repeat cycle' of 10 days the black spot would only be a relatively small percentage of each satellite's cycle.

    In reality, if Galileo where to be kicked out of the FI and ASI then they would probably build new Sensor Stations on the coast of Chile or Argentina (who would love to fuck us over on this matter) and Cape Verde.

    Finally, while the satellite payloads are manufactured the UK they are not made by the UK government owned and directed Royal British Satellite Factory they are made by Airbus Space and Defense. So while the British government could certainly do a Putin/Mugabe style expropriation of the facility it could not stop Airbus using the intellectual property to make them elsewhere.

    In conclusion, Willamson is, as usual, talking absolute shit fuelled by crass stupidity.

    This theme of Galileo does reappear quite frequently in a squall of ill informed speculation. Maybe I'll write a header on it...

    The lack of knowledge about modern technology in Parliament is actually rather sweet. Personally I read the comments on The Register website after the latest Government technology announcements, and have to stop myself laughing at the replies by actual experts. Having a PPE or a degree in Law or the Classics can't make a civil servant or cabinet minister an expert in something which is moving forward so fast.. Or the EU, manufacturing, house building, finance, banking and hedge funds, agriculture and fishing,....
    There is a recent book called Bluffocracy which blames the PPE degree in particular for producing politicians, civil servants and journalists adept at quickly mastering briefs well enough for debate (or last minute essays at Oxford) but with no understanding.
    https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/bluffocracy
    We have no need of experts. The great English tradition of bumbling amateurism continues.
    Ah, you've met my GP?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Anyone think the conference is going well for the tories? It seems like a car crash in slow motion.

    Surely, May's speech will be a step up from last year?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Anyone think the conference is going well for the tories? It seems like a car crash in slow motion.

    This is why I said we shouldn't pay much attention to polls putting them ahead after Labour's epochal shambles.

    Mind you, I don't think it's been quite as bad as that so far. Hunt has been maladroit and Boris Boris, but at least nobody has been threatening violence or the overthrow of the government by force.

    That said, when the best I can come up with is that they're not as bad as a bunch of murderous racists, homophobes and cretins, things are pretty bad.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Jonathan said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT on Galileo... If you adopt the position, pour la vue de nez, that Williamson is misinformed or ignorant about everything except fireplaces you won't go far wrong.

    The Falklands and Ascension Galileo facilities are "Sensor Stations". They download telemetry and relay it to the control centres. They provide NO uplink or control or localised position information. If Galileo lost access to these facilities it means there would be an area over the South Atlantic where data would not be available. As Galileo satellites have an orbital period of 14 hours and 'repeat cycle' of 10 days the black spot would only be a relatively small percentage of each satellite's cycle.

    In reality, if Galileo where to be kicked out of the FI and ASI then they would probably build new Sensor Stations on the coast of Chile or Argentina (who would love to fuck us over on this matter) and Cape Verde.

    Finally, while the satellite payloads are manufactured the UK they are not made by the UK government owned and directed Royal British Satellite Factory they are made by Airbus Space and Defense. So while the British government could certainly do a Putin/Mugabe style expropriation of the facility it could not stop Airbus using the intellectual property to make them elsewhere.

    In conclusion, Willamson is, as usual, talking absolute shit fuelled by crass stupidity.

    This theme of Galileo does reappear quite frequently in a squall of ill informed speculation. Maybe I'll write a header on it...

    My takeaway from that is that the UK is a significant contributor to Galileo and if it were no longer part of the programme it would cause significant inconvenience to the EU.

    Meanwhile, we have the technology, resources and expertise to do it ourselves as well.
    How will we get satellites into space? Will Boris fart them up there from our new outer hebredies space port.
    Other launch facilities are available, in the US and Russia/Kazakhstan. I shouldn’t be too surprised if the Chinese and Indians get into the commercial launch game before to long, if they haven’t already.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    edited October 2018

    Ishmael_Z said:

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    I'm sure she will.
    The response will be no doubt almost "Iain Duncan Smith mere weeks before he was summarily defenestrated" levels of ovation.
    I love the word defenestrate. Conjures images of pips being cut off shoulders as you have to stand there.
    Not if you know,what it means, it doesn't.
    It's not always fatal.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/defenestration-of-prague-window
    Defenestration is a good word. I’ve been doing a “word of the week” segment with my registration form and that will be a good one to add to the list. I’ve also been to Prague and went on a side tip to see the window.
  • I am still not sure how you could implement a hard brexit in Scotland without sending the army in. In effect England would need to invade Scotland. I cannot see the SNP complying with orders to put up borders
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited October 2018
    rpjs said:

    Jonathan said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT on Galileo... If you adopt the position, pour la vue de nez, that Williamson is misinformed or ignorant about everything except fireplaces you won't go far wrong.

    The Falklands and Ascension Galileo facilities are "Sensor Stations". They download telemetry and relay it to the control centres. They provide NO uplink or control or localised position information. If Galileo lost access to these facilities it means there would be an area over the South Atlantic where data would not be available. As Galileo satellites have an orbital period of 14 hours and 'repeat cycle' of 10 days the black spot would only be a relatively small percentage of each satellite's cycle.

    In reality, if Galileo where to be kicked out of the FI and ASI then they would probably build new Sensor Stations on the coast of Chile or Argentina (who would love to fuck us over on this matter) and Cape Verde.

    Finally, while the satellite payloads are manufactured the UK they are not made by the UK government owned and directed Royal British Satellite Factory they are made by Airbus Space and Defense. So while the British government could certainly do a Putin/Mugabe style expropriation of the facility it could not stop Airbus using the intellectual property to make them elsewhere.

    In conclusion, Willamson is, as usual, talking absolute shit fuelled by crass stupidity.

    This theme of Galileo does reappear quite frequently in a squall of ill informed speculation. Maybe I'll write a header on it...

    My takeaway from that is that the UK is a significant contributor to Galileo and if it were no longer part of the programme it would cause significant inconvenience to the EU.

    Meanwhile, we have the technology, resources and expertise to do it ourselves as well.
    How will we get satellites into space? Will Boris fart them up there from our new outer hebredies space port.
    Other launch facilities are available, in the US and Russia/Kazakhstan. I shouldn’t be too surprised if the Chinese and Indians get into the commercial launch game before to long, if they haven’t already.
    With all its faults, the EU has at least some democratic remnants and some reason not to hate us. I'm not sure I would say both of those for any of the others...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Doethur, bit harsh on Canute, who was showing he knew the limits of his power.

    A second referendum remains possible, but, as you suggest, it does require A Thing to occur. Without that, we leave by default.

    It requires a delay/postponement as the first step. As indeed may well an orderly departure.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Anyone think the conference is going well for the tories? It seems like a car crash in slow motion.

    well you would say that wouldn't you
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    I am still not sure how you could implement a hard brexit in Scotland without sending the army in. In effect England would need to invade Scotland. I cannot see the SNP complying with orders to put up borders

    Really? I can, very easily. As long as the border is between England and Scotland of course, but Scotland has no other borders so there are no other possible issues.
  • Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    That Boris J is a complete piece of shit isn't in doubt but what was in the balance was the condition of the post Cameron Tory party. After the whooping and cheering we heard as he stabbed Mrs May repeatedly in the back answered it pretty definitively.

    Both he and the Tories have quite some way to go before they measure down to Trump and his base:

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-mocks-christine-blasey-ford-testimony-make-america-great-again-rally-mississippi-landers-center-2018-10-02/

    Imitating Ford, Mr. Trump added, "But I had one beer -- that's the only thing I remember." At that point the crowd erupted in cheers and applause. Mr. Trump said "a man's life is shattered," referencing Kavanaugh, and "these are really evil people."

    Worth remembering that Trump is the man the buccaneering Brexiteers are putting all their faith in. Their hard right English nationalism is pretty much the same as the nationalism he stands for. What Trump is, Rees Mogg, Johnson, Davis and co are too.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Ishmael_Z said:

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    I'm sure she will.
    The response will be no doubt almost "Iain Duncan Smith mere weeks before he was summarily defenestrated" levels of ovation.
    I love the word defenestrate. Conjures images of pips being cut off shoulders as you have to stand there.
    Not if you know,what it means, it doesn't.
    It's not always fatal.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/defenestration-of-prague-window
    Defenestration is a good word. I’ve been doing a “word of the week” segment with my registration form and that will be a good one to add to the list. I’ve also been to Prague and went on a side tip to see the window.
    And I thought my puns were bad. 'Side tip,' indeed!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    rpjs said:

    Jonathan said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT on Galileo... If you adopt the position, pour la vue de nez, that Williamson is misinformed or ignorant about everything except fireplaces you won't go far wrong.

    The Falklands and Ascension Galileo facilities are "Sensor Stations". They download telemetry and relay it to the control centres. They provide NO uplink or control or localised position information. If Galileo lost access to these facilities it means there would be an area over the South Atlantic where data would not be available. As Galileo satellites have an orbital period of 14 hours and 'repeat cycle' of 10 days the black spot would only be a relatively small percentage of each satellite's cycle.

    In reality, if Galileo where to be kicked out of the FI and ASI then they would probably build new Sensor Stations on the coast of Chile or Argentina (who would love to fuck us over on this matter) and Cape Verde.

    Finally, while the satellite payloads are manufactured the UK they are not made by the UK government owned and directed Royal British Satellite Factory they are made by Airbus Space and Defense. So while the British government could certainly do a Putin/Mugabe style expropriation of the facility it could not stop Airbus using the intellectual property to make them elsewhere.

    In conclusion, Willamson is, as usual, talking absolute shit fuelled by crass stupidity.

    This theme of Galileo does reappear quite frequently in a squall of ill informed speculation. Maybe I'll write a header on it...

    My takeaway from that is that the UK is a significant contributor to Galileo and if it were no longer part of the programme it would cause significant inconvenience to the EU.

    Meanwhile, we have the technology, resources and expertise to do it ourselves as well.
    How will we get satellites into space? Will Boris fart them up there from our new outer hebredies space port.
    Other launch facilities are available, in the US and Russia/Kazakhstan. I shouldn’t be too surprised if the Chinese and Indians get into the commercial launch game before to long, if they haven’t already.
    Going cap in hand to Trump or Putin doesn’t feel like taking back (ground) control.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Just watched Guy Verhofstadt's speech - the one that was being looked down on on here yesterday. What he said was a lot more logical in context. It was pretty clear that he was specifically cheesed off with the Conservatives. Hard to say if he is typical of MEPS. But it isn't hard to see why it might be a common view.

    Brexit was never a good idea but it didn't have to be implemented in such a ham fisted way.

    That began with a referendum allowing people wanting all sorts of contradictory things to vote for the same proposition. After that there was no way out for the lucky politician who got to implement it.
  • ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    I'm sure she will.
    The response will be no doubt almost "Iain Duncan Smith mere weeks before he was summarily defenestrated" levels of ovation.
    I love the word defenestrate. Conjures images of pips being cut off shoulders as you have to stand there.
    Not if you know,what it means, it doesn't.
    It's not always fatal.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/defenestration-of-prague-window
    Defenestration is a good word. I’ve been doing a “word of the week” segment with my registration form and that will be a good one to add to the list. I’ve also been to Prague and went on a side tip to see the window.
    And I thought my puns were bad. 'Side tip,' indeed!
    It would have been even better as a trip of course...
  • ydoethur said:

    Anyone think the conference is going well for the tories? It seems like a car crash in slow motion.

    This is why I said we shouldn't pay much attention to polls putting them ahead after Labour's epochal shambles.

    Mind you, I don't think it's been quite as bad as that so far. Hunt has been maladroit and Boris Boris, but at least nobody has been threatening violence or the overthrow of the government by force.

    That said, when the best I can come up with is that they're not as bad as a bunch of murderous racists, homophobes and cretins, things are pretty bad.

    They pretty much are a bunch of murderous racists, homophobes and cretins, too. The Tories provide succour to anti-Semites and stand shoulder to shoulder with oppressive, murderous regimes, just as the labour party does. It's just that they choose different bigots and xenophobes to hang out with. Our country's reputation and its long-term standing are being destroyed by both the left and right.

  • Jonathan said:

    rpjs said:

    Jonathan said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT on Galileo... If you adopt the position, pour la vue de nez, that Williamson is misinformed or ignorant about everything except fireplaces you won't go far wrong.

    The Falklands and Ascension Galileo facilities are "Sensor Stations". They download telemetry and relay it to the control centres. They provide NO uplink or control or localised position information. If Galileo lost access to these facilities it means there would be an area over the South Atlantic where data would not be available. As Galileo satellites have an orbital period of 14 hours and 'repeat cycle' of 10 days the black spot would only be a relatively small percentage of each satellite's cycle.

    In reality, if Galileo where to be kicked out of the FI and ASI then they would probably build new Sensor Stations on the coast of Chile or Argentina (who would love to fuck us over on this matter) and Cape Verde.

    Finally, while the satellite payloads are manufactured the UK they are not made by the UK government owned and directed Royal British Satellite Factory they are made by Airbus Space and Defense. So while the British government could certainly do a Putin/Mugabe style expropriation of the facility it could not stop Airbus using the intellectual property to make them elsewhere.

    In conclusion, Willamson is, as usual, talking absolute shit fuelled by crass stupidity.

    This theme of Galileo does reappear quite frequently in a squall of ill informed speculation. Maybe I'll write a header on it...

    My takeaway from that is that the UK is a significant contributor to Galileo and if it were no longer part of the programme it would cause significant inconvenience to the EU.

    Meanwhile, we have the technology, resources and expertise to do it ourselves as well.
    How will we get satellites into space? Will Boris fart them up there from our new outer hebredies space port.
    Other launch facilities are available, in the US and Russia/Kazakhstan. I shouldn’t be too surprised if the Chinese and Indians get into the commercial launch game before to long, if they haven’t already.
    Going cap in hand to Trump or Putin doesn’t feel like taking back (ground) control.
    I thought we were building a space port in Scotland?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    I'm sure she will.
    The response will be no doubt almost "Iain Duncan Smith mere weeks before he was summarily defenestrated" levels of ovation.
    I love the word defenestrate. Conjures images of pips being cut off shoulders as you have to stand there.
    Not if you know,what it means, it doesn't.
    It's not always fatal.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/defenestration-of-prague-window
    Defenestration is a good word. I’ve been doing a “word of the week” segment with my registration form and that will be a good one to add to the list. I’ve also been to Prague and went on a side tip to see the window.
    And I thought my puns were bad. 'Side tip,' indeed!
    It would have been even better as a trip of course...
    At a push, I suppose...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Anyone think the conference is going well for the tories? It seems like a car crash in slow motion.

    This is why I said we shouldn't pay much attention to polls putting them ahead after Labour's epochal shambles.

    Mind you, I don't think it's been quite as bad as that so far. Hunt has been maladroit and Boris Boris, but at least nobody has been threatening violence or the overthrow of the government by force.

    That said, when the best I can come up with is that they're not as bad as a bunch of murderous racists, homophobes and cretins, things are pretty bad.

    They pretty much are a bunch of murderous racists, homophobes and cretins, too. The Tories provide succour to anti-Semites and stand shoulder to shoulder with oppressive, murderous regimes, just as the labour party does. It's just that they choose different bigots and xenophobes to hang out with. Our country's reputation and its long-term standing are being destroyed by both the left and right.

    The Tories support such people, and are rightly condemned for it.

    Labour are such people.

    There is a difference. Admittedly it may seem like the difference between being thrown to a shark and thrown into a piranha tank.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    I'm sure she will.
    The response will be no doubt almost "Iain Duncan Smith mere weeks before he was summarily defenestrated" levels of ovation.
    I love the word defenestrate. Conjures images of pips being cut off shoulders as you have to stand there.
    Not if you know,what it means, it doesn't.
    It's not always fatal.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/defenestration-of-prague-window
    Defenestration is a good word. I’ve been doing a “word of the week” segment with my registration form and that will be a good one to add to the list. I’ve also been to Prague and went on a side tip to see the window.
    And I thought my puns were bad. 'Side tip,' indeed!
    It would have been even better as a trip of course...
    At a push, I suppose...
    Defenestration could be a pane.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    The secret barrister was scooped by pb's very own rpjs two threads ago.

    fx:bows. (I just looked it up on Wikipedia then verified with legislation.gov.uk - doesn’t Boris have people to do this sort of thing for him?)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Boris is closer to being PM, right now, than at any point in his career. But how does he seize the crown?

    By waiting. Wait for a few more weeks for May's Chequers offer to completely unravel in the face of EU political intransigence. Then let the letters go in. And then wait a bit longer in the hope that another challenger throws their hat in the ring to challenge May first, before he does so himself.
    You really do not know our system. I have explained it to you

    If TM lost a vnoc she would stand down and a full leadership contest would take place with at least 6 -8 candidates, one of course would be Boris. Televised hustings would take place and then a vote is taken by all conservative mps to put two of the candidates to the members. At present Boris has annoyed so many of his fellow colleagues it is doubtful he would get in the final two. However, if he did it is more than likely he would win

    The whole process would take 2 - 3 months and I would expect TM to be a caretaker pending the appointment of her successor.

    I hope that you accept that as a membership I do know the process
    You are right but if someone had enough letters there is nothing to stop them ‘standing’ against May in the VONC. They can say that they are challenging her at that stage. So in theory Boris (or someone else) can get a group of letters, announce he is standing against May and trigger the vote. It would change the dynamic. I don’t expect it to happen like that but it could.
    They could.

    But the impact of doing so would be to make it a de facto choice between Theresa May and said challenger. So, if JRM or Johnson were to "challenge" Theresa May, then it would likely cause those on the pro-EU side of the party to back her.

    One third of the parliamentary Conservative Party would like someone more Eurosceptic than TM. One third would like someone more conciliatory to the EU. And one third just wants to get Brexit behind us as soon as possible. (And also realises that Britain's relationship with the EU will evolve over the next decade in any case.)
    It's the membership's desperation to vote for Boris or JRM in the face of all logic or common sense that is Mrs May's best friend. That alone ensures that most of their fountain pens remain empty.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Jonathan said:

    rpjs said:

    Jonathan said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT on Galileo... If you adopt the position, pour la vue de nez, that Williamson is misinformed or ignorant about everything except fireplaces you won't go far wrong.

    The Falklands and Ascension Galileo facilities are "Sensor Stations". They download telemetry and relay it to the control centres. They provide NO uplink or control or localised position information. If Galileo lost access to these facilities it means there would be an area over the South Atlantic where data would not be available. As Galileo satellites have an orbital period of 14 hours and 'repeat cycle' of 10 days the black spot would only be a relatively small percentage of each satellite's cycle.

    In reality, if Galileo where to be kicked out of the FI and ASI then they would probably build new Sensor Stations on the coast of Chile or Argentina (who would love to fuck us over on this matter) and Cape Verde.

    Finally, while the satellite payloads are manufactured the UK they are not made by the UK government owned and directed Royal British Satellite Factory they are made by Airbus Space and Defense. So while the British government could certainly do a Putin/Mugabe style expropriation of the facility it could not stop Airbus using the intellectual property to make them elsewhere.

    In conclusion, Willamson is, as usual, talking absolute shit fuelled by crass stupidity.

    This theme of Galileo does reappear quite frequently in a squall of ill informed speculation. Maybe I'll write a header on it...

    My takeaway from that is that the UK is a significant contributor to Galileo and if it were no longer part of the programme it would cause significant inconvenience to the EU.

    Meanwhile, we have the technology, resources and expertise to do it ourselves as well.
    How will we get satellites into space? Will Boris fart them up there from our new outer hebredies space port.
    Other launch facilities are available, in the US and Russia/Kazakhstan. I shouldn’t be too surprised if the Chinese and Indians get into the commercial launch game before to long, if they haven’t already.
    Going cap in hand to Trump or Putin doesn’t feel like taking back (ground) control.
    No cap in hand required, just cold, hard cash. Space launch is a commodity now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    I'm sure she will.
    The response will be no doubt almost "Iain Duncan Smith mere weeks before he was summarily defenestrated" levels of ovation.
    I love the word defenestrate. Conjures images of pips being cut off shoulders as you have to stand there.
    Not if you know,what it means, it doesn't.
    It's not always fatal.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/defenestration-of-prague-window
    Defenestration is a good word. I’ve been doing a “word of the week” segment with my registration form and that will be a good one to add to the list. I’ve also been to Prague and went on a side tip to see the window.
    And I thought my puns were bad. 'Side tip,' indeed!
    It would have been even better as a trip of course...
    At a push, I suppose...
    Defenestration could be a pane.
    All these puns. I'm in danger of being pushed out of the frame...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    My takeaway from that is that the UK is a significant contributor to Galileo and if it were no longer part of the programme it would cause significant inconvenience to the EU.

    That's about right for variable values of 'significant'.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Doethur, bit harsh on Canute, who was showing he knew the limits of his power.

    A second referendum remains possible, but, as you suggest, it does require A Thing to occur. Without that, we leave by default.

    It requires a delay/postponement as the first step. As indeed may well an orderly departure.
    It is why Blind Brexit looks most likely, with the Withdrawal Agreement getting parliamentary approval and nothing further being agreed or going to a parliamentary vote. We can then have another couple of years arguing what it all means.

  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    For the first time since 10pm on 8th June 2017, I beginning to think that Theresa May might stay the course as PM and party leader until the next general election in 2021 or 2022.

    If she gets booed at her own conference she might be gone tomorrow!
    She'll get a good response, I expect.
    I'm sure she will.
    The response will be no doubt almost "Iain Duncan Smith mere weeks before he was summarily defenestrated" levels of ovation.
    I love the word defenestrate. Conjures images of pips being cut off shoulders as you have to stand there.
    Not if you know,what it means, it doesn't.
    It's not always fatal.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/defenestration-of-prague-window
    Defenestration is a good word. I’ve been doing a “word of the week” segment with my registration form and that will be a good one to add to the list. I’ve also been to Prague and went on a side tip to see the window.
    And I thought my puns were bad. 'Side tip,' indeed!
    It would have been even better as a trip of course...
    At a push, I suppose...
    I do use the occasional bad pun for teaching, but unless you need to know the difference between Fleming’s Left Hand Rule and his Right Hand Rule they are not much use.

    On topic: if Boris gets to be leader of the Coservative party and almost anybody but Corbyn leads Labour, then I will not be voting Tory at the next election for the first time in my life.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    The theme of this conference was supposed to be opportunity. A pretty vacuous word at best but what has any minister said that is relevant to it?

    Where are the announcements of the extension of homework clubs, pupil premiums and incentivisation of teachers to go to "difficult" schools, what has been said (other than by Boris) about the difficulties with housing, with the unfairness of student grants, with funding social care, etc etc? Where is this opportunity that they speak of?

    I confess I have not been glued to the Conference, it is entirely possible that I have missed something but the 2 announcements I have picked up on are (a) waiters get to keep their tips and (b) EU citizens in the future will be treated the same as applicants from the rest of the world. (b) is obviously subject to the terms of deal with the EU so it doesn't exactly leave a program for government does it?

    One of May's most serious failings as a leader (definitely top 3) is that she thinks the job of government is to keep buggering on through difficult circumstances without wasting too much time wondering where they are going and why. No doubt she will unveil a vision of a shining city on a hill at 10am today...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Culture war fans might enjoy some of the batshit insane millennial PC tosh that three people managed to get published:
    https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1047334806600777728
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited October 2018

    Jonathan said:

    rpjs said:

    Jonathan said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    FPT on Galileo... If you adopt the position, pour la vue de nez, that Williamson is misinformed or ignorant about everything except fireplaces you won't go far wrong.

    The Falklands and Ascension Galileo facilities are "Sensor Stations". They download telemetry and relay it to the control centres. They provide NO uplink or control or localised position information. If Galileo lost access to these facilities it means there would be an area over the South Atlantic where data would not be available. As Galileo satellites have an orbital period of 14 hours and 'repeat cycle' of 10 days the black spot would only be a relatively small percentage of each satellite's cycle.

    In reality, if Galileo where to be kicked out of the FI and ASI then they would probably build new Sensor Stations on the coast of Chile or Argentina (who would love to fuck us over on this matter) and Cape Verde.

    Finally, while the satellite payloads are manufactured the UK they are not made by the UK government owned and directed Royal British Satellite Factory they are made by Airbus Space and Defense. So while the British government could certainly do a Putin/Mugabe style expropriation of the facility it could not stop Airbus using the intellectual property to make them elsewhere.

    In conclusion, Willamson is, as usual, talking absolute shit fuelled by crass stupidity.

    This theme of Galileo does reappear quite frequently in a squall of ill informed speculation. Maybe I'll write a header on it...

    My takeaway from that is that the UK is a significant contributor to Galileo and if it were no longer part of the programme it would cause significant inconvenience to the EU.

    Meanwhile, we have the technology, resources and expertise to do it ourselves as well.
    How will we get satellites into space? Will Boris fart them up there from our new outer hebredies space port.
    Other launch facilities are available, in the US and Russia/Kazakhstan. I shouldn’t be too surprised if the Chinese and Indians get into the commercial launch game before to long, if they haven’t already.
    Going cap in hand to Trump or Putin doesn’t feel like taking back (ground) control.
    I thought we were building a space port in Scotland?
    Only good for polar orbits though, although I have a feeling GPS/Galileo/GLONASS satellites are in very highly-inclined orbits anyway. In any case, I expect the biggest obstacle to building a British Galileo (Newton?) system will be establishing the ground station network. Perhaps Pitcairn Island will prove useful at last.
  • I am still not sure how you could implement a hard brexit in Scotland without sending the army in. In effect England would need to invade Scotland. I cannot see the SNP complying with orders to put up borders

    The Scots have an escape path from the hard right English nationalist right that will be controlling my country for the foreseeable future. I envy them greatly.

This discussion has been closed.