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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, faces a second
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, faces a second accuser
By far the biggest political battle in US politics at the moment is the effort by the Republicans to ensure that Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court vacancy, Brett Kavanaugh, gets approved.
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In other words one GOP Senator not going with the White House wouldn't be enough, it would take two to prevent him being approved.
On the other hand the GOP is pretty resistant to accusations of sexual assault these days, so I'm tempted but not betting atm.
America is a wierd place.
And HRH does not have the same practical powers as the SCOTUS.
Wow.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7337763/theresa-may-chequers-plan-two-week-progress-window/
Peston still being allowed to talk about politics on TV, I mean.
I’m guessing not one elector in a hundred does.
That, and their respective powers, are the difference.
Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
Why not wait and see, it is only a few weeks to the October summit
The Republican leadership is determined to bring this to vote of the full Senate pretty quickly:
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/408161-gop-mounts-counter-offensive-on-kavanaugh
The nomination either gets pulled, or forced to a vote within a couple of weeks at most, I think.
Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
The bottom line is that Corbyn/McDonnell/McClusky et al have succeeded in manipulating their Conference agenda so that the resolution that will go forward in response to over 100 resolutions demanding a referendum will in fact commit Labour to do absolutely nothing. Corbyn's hands are not tied, as he feared they might be, because he has managed to retain absolute control over the Conference agenda.
Everything else is just fluff.
Is Chequers just tired and shagged out after a long skwark?
Who and how would anyone else take over now
I like everyone has no idea of the real position
No one else comes close at the moment.
She's good, though I'm sure the PBTories will be sneering at her accent and her supposed "lack of intelligence" as I type. Not sure who I'd vote for if it's a Thornberry vs Rayner contest for this new female Deputy position.
It is not going to happen
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/24/rosenstein-expects-to-be-fired-after-report-he-discussed-taping-trump-837688
There’s some suggestion that the NYT ‘wire’ story was leaked by Kelly, who also seems to be the guy who is said to have accepted Rosenstein’s ‘verbal resignation’ (a story subsequently denied).
Of course Trump can always blame the ‘failing New York Times’ as a get out.
Makes our own administration look almost.... functional.
Mmmm...
I’m going to to use this post to slip an original joke to Boris. Ya listening Johnson?
The current cabinet is the Golgafrincham Ark B cabinet.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/9/24/17895772/apple-iphone-xs-max-wifi-bad-signal
https://m.slashdot.org/story/346282
My desire is for a succesful conclusion anywhere between Norway and Canada and I am not like some who are fighting for their Brexit which may by accident end up remaining
I really do not want to imagine the consequences of us going back with our tails between our legs .
We just have to leave
Hunt or Raab would probably be front-runners at the moment. Could take on smoothly from where things are.
Davis outside bet.
Javid would be my favourite but less likely in this scenario.
Boris, JRM etc simply not going to happen.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6129505/Tory-MP-Heidi-Allen-threatens-QUIT-Boris-Johnson-leader.html
(*Or strictly, if he called it some other mix of percentages and neither of the two outcomes ensued - which seems logically impossible.)
Not a great time to be deposing May is it?
But even besides Boris, I struggle to see the rest coalescing around one person and persuading the second placed to stand down. Sure, there's not really time for that nonsense right now, but there hasn't been for awhile and it hasn't stopped constant speculation.
McCluck and McDon both have old fashioned Bennite view of Britain and Europe, and this Labour Rally has smoked it out the closet. My understanding is the labour party, labour movement, and supporters of the party in the country are now decisively not just for soft ‘Jobs Brexit’ but for remain, so the Bennites need to watch their tongue, on Tuesday their party overwhelmingly endorses a motion keeping open option of 2nd ref with no words excluded from that ballot, so far today McDon has been on message, went off message, ending up back on it, his defeat on this composite getting overwhelmingly passed by his democratic conference clearly rankling with the ageing Trot
May should say, keep your shirt on and I’ll keep the water taps on
2) How can he promise Labour will do any specific thing when he and McDonnell are apparently still saying different things about what options they would keep open?
Starmer seems a smart operator, and Labour's Brexit positioning under him has not been tactically dumb, but from what I gather it really is just:
1) Vote down anything the government may or may not come back with
2) Do something after that
3) Labour will be in power somehow
i.e. be as stupidly stubborn as I am.
It looks to me that Labour are managing their conference well.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7337763/theresa-may-chequers-plan-two-week-progress-window/
How can she push Chequers still? Is she not listening?
Its getting like the Dead Parrot sketch, repeated as tragedy rather than farce.
She appears to be the most stubborn person, since stubbornness was invented.
Truly I am beginning to think her Cabinet needs to depose her.
The October summit is in three weeks. How would pushing her help anyone.
Someone else will face the same impasse, same numbers, and same issues
Good! We need someone else to do so because May is constitutionally incapable of resolving the impasse. She's had two years to do so already, what's going to change in the next two weeks?
Not the leadership of the Tory party, that's for sure - that would take at least two months.
Not necessarily. IDS was replaced in days.
For that to happen, all Tory MPs would have to coalesce around one candidate.
Mmmm...
Indeed - I cannot envisage a scenario in which Boris does not push this through to the members. Ok, I never say him not standing last time coming either, but he's been on maneuvers ever since and how could he live with himself if he doesn't try for the job. And it's not like he could accept some interim leader either, since if a caretaker candidate does well there would be a clamour for that person to take over, even if they had said for sure they would not stick around.
Scenario is he doesn't come in the top 2. I don't think MPs would put him into the top 2 in any scenario but certainly not this scenario.
Even if (pleasae God) he doesn't come in the top two, there would still be a top two to put to Big_G, Mrs. Big_G and the other members, so it would be months not weeks.
Not a great time to be deposing May is it?
Leadsom showed that can be short-circuited. If a new leader is needed in a hurry the runner-up could pull out of the race and Leadsom shows the race is then over it doesn't mean third place goes to the members.
dixiedean:
Politically, though, that won't wash. It would just be another can kicking. The Tory Party is divided. Finding a compromise candidate would not be a compromise, just identifying an individual who is least offensive to both wings.
They tried it once with May.
They remained divided. At some stage, a head count as to where everyone stands needs to happen, before any forward motion. The losers would have to decide their next move.
Well they must be bloody disappointed, then.
In theory a peoples vote could be any old rubbish. Trinary question and battle between real and fantasy options, but if it ever did firm up n practice it would need to be binary and meaningful. Ref2 can only be binary, for example three options, May deal, crash out and remain could all garner 30%ish each deciding nothing. It also needs to be meaningful eg if result of Mays toil is Canada+ backstop, a crash out v Canda+backstop vote would be a farce. The wording of the 2nd ref cannot be written today. Labour Moderates would call for it to be worded not by politicians, but by the electorate, and if Labour Moderates get away with that Brexit will be in trouble.
"We would honour the Brexit vote, we just wouldn't have done it like the Tories did it" is definitely the sweet-spot political position in terms of appealing to Leave and Remain voters at the next election, even if it's not very principled.
Once you ditch once you probably start developing a taste for it.
For the party to survive it has to be May or Hunt
Yes it is sneering to expect Labour (or any party) to only select graduates for ministerial positions.