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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How adding the words “and jobs” to the best party on the economy question gives a very different outcome
Today we saw the YouGov “best party” ratings on seven key policy areas. The economy one saw the CON lead increasing to 18%.
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I bet Balls is relieved the IMF news didn't come out during y'days reshuffle..
Labour borrow billions and spend it all on non-jobs for their chums in the public sector.
Well sacking Diane Abbot doesnt fit a lot of peoples agenda of Blairite clearouts, lurches to the left or an apple for teacher Len McLuskey?
Maybe Ed's taking a leaf out of the UKIP book... just plain common sense
Labour @edballsmp on IMF upgrade "its good that we finally have some growth...but slowest recovery for 100 years"
but but but the recovery wasn't coming and the Govt had to do Labour's 5-point plan for growth to get it?
(b) the public think that Labour are concerned about the average (wo)man on the street
'Twas ever thus. Winning an election is partly about improving your reputation on your away turf and destroying your opponent's reputation on your turf. But mostly it's about on which turf the battle is fought.
Labour has never worked.
The Tories have got their own special interest groups sure which should be cut, but the idea that if Labour had got back in at the last election that spending wouldn't have gone up even more than it has done is I'm afraid a load of old drivel.
If what you say is correct then the Tories have failed in their communication efforts.
I have never seen so much jubilation expressed on my TL as on the occasion of Diane #Abbott being sacked in #Labour #reshuffle
Admittedly the Tories haven't bothered to fix the problems either (they abandoned the cuts after a year or so of negativity) and are desperately trying to reinflate the debt bubble, but it was Labour who based the whole economy on debt and public spending. There is no way out without loads of pain which no one wants the blame for, so they'll just keep papering over the cracks until forced to do something about it by the markets.
The other big winners were the Brownites. Vernon Coaker secured promotion to Jim Murphy’s old job at Defence. Spencer Livermore, Gordon Brown’s old director of strategy, has been brought in to run the election campaign, alongside another Brownite Michael Dugher and estranged Brownite Douglas Alexander..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100240360/only-the-brownites-can-save-labour-now/
1) cumulatively it's a monster of a sample.
2) Ashcroft has a knack for asking good questions.
However, trying to step back, I’d argue that some members of the Shadow Cabinet managed to make themselves unshuffleable, either through personal loyalty or by building up a base of support inside the party that would regard their departure as unacceptably painful.
Whoever could he possibly be referring to?
So the graph above seems to show such a disjunction due to sample differences rather than the question.
I'm told sacking of Diane Abbott cd clear way for her to stand as Labour candidate for Mayor of London.
Will she face the wrath of Khan ?
The risk here from a Blue perspective is a view of "what has The Economy ever done for us?" becoming widespread among normal working people. If a large chunk of the electorate sees the abstract concept of the national economy as something which doesn't affect their own economic wellbeing, and they are thinking of that concept when answering the question, it's completely irrelevant who has a lead on the point. That's why the Tories attempt to couple envy-inducing attacks on benefit claimants with the health of the economy - the strategy is to personalise the economy as an issue so that the default Tory lead translates into votes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
She was jailed indefinitely, with a recommended minimum term of five years in May 2009, for causing or allowing her son's death. The Parole Board has recommended her release from prison following a second review of her case.The board said arrangements and the date of the release were a matter for the secretary of state.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-24446126
Um MT "@LeeJasper Ed fires only black woman in his cabinet and retains weak ass black men
He can't mean our chuka ,can he ;-)
Worth reading.
@dlknowles: If Labour is going to ditch HS2 support, they'd better propose spending the entire £50bn on transport and actually specify where.
Indeed.
So how about a bit of popular capitalism?
Royal Mail is ten times oversubscribed, according to sources.....
Grey is said to be 395/405 -
Maximum price for those allocated will be 330...
Crazy.
It is worse than the Thick of It episode on government experts....at least in that episode they were actual experts, just the government didn't listen to one.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100240194/sooner-or-later-the-us-government-is-going-to-default-on-its-debt/
Interesting..
I'd far more trust a national opinion poll (YouGov, Populus, ICM, MORI, Comres) to gain an accurate reading of opinion than these multi constituency jobbies.
I wish my chum and erstwhile pb contributor, Dr Robert Waller, were here to give the pollster's pollster analysis.
It'd be funny if it wasn't so serious.
Crazy.
eg??
Oh, wait...
A. "Labour". I wish they had learned by now.
I haven't seen Robert for a while, so I'll give him a call and seek his wisdom on the relative merits of a single national poll and those based on cumulative totals over selected individual seats. If I'm wrong, I'll be happy to admit it.
I don't mind Ed Miliband actually, and I guess I still want Labour to be good guys in the way you still sometimes daydream what life would be like if it had worked out with an ex
[taken by yours truly]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Unit_395008_at_Ebbsfleet_International.JPG
Good try though.
Surely they must have a tame uncle tom too ?
Saying that you want infrastructure spending and then complain when it is a waste of money is really making their point for them.
Kill HS2. Put a couple of billion into some more modest infrastructure improvements. Take ~£40bn off the debt projections.
Then Balls doesn't have political cover for £50bn of promises of jam before the election.
You know, STV would make it so much easier for the voters to squeeze duplicitous little .. idiots like Balls out of politics.
Imagine swapping the words Lee Jasper for any UKIP politician, counting how many times they mention the colour of someone's skin in their writings, standing back and watching the explosion from PC World
And it's not a fixation; it is having looked into it and not having seen much of an alternative. As have the experts.
Surely they must have a tame uncle tom too ?"
The DT has by far the widest range of opinion columnists. I think the last sorta Tory the Guardian had was Julian Glover - Mr Matthew Parris - he left to work for Number 10 IIRC about a year ago.
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3088/economics/pros-and-cons-of-high-speed-rail-hs2/
Cancelling HS2 will massively delay the infrastructure spending you claim to favour whilst at the same time preventing a much needed step change in rail capacity. Your desire to see this project cancelled appears to be entirely motivated by your hope that it would be seen as a defeat for the government. Heaven forbid!
There was an academic section to the LSE polling seminar I went to (the blog post was delayed by LD conference and may be past it's sell by date now) but there is a group trying to do work on constituency level interpretation of results.
http://constituencyopinion.org.uk/ is the link that explains their efforts.
"If you look at the list of reshuffled ministers, you'll notice by the names of Karen Bradley and Sam Gyimah, who move to senior positions in the Whips' Office, the phrase "(lord commissioner)". This means that, as well as keeping discipline within the Tory party, these MPs have – as a former holder of their office once proudly told me – a rather unusual job: they get to sign the cheques.
We think of the model of government as simple: money comes in via taxes, rather more money goes out as spending, and we borrow billions to make up for it. But in fact, all of that spending has to be signed off on. That's the job of the Lord High Treasurer, one of the great officers of state. Except that we haven't had one since 1714. His job is instead done by a board of commissioners – the Lords of the Treasury."
Er, and longstanding Osborne associate Mark Hoban? Tell us about his promotion.
You need help (as someone has so wisely counselled).
Gary Anderson reckons the medium tyres in Suzuka might suffer, as per Yeongam: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/24446906
And it is needed. There is not a single report that shows the capacity can be met any other way. Upgrading of the WCML is a massively expensive option for very limited gains. Extra capacity cannot be created on the Chiltern lines without massive cost for equally limited gains. It's all been looked into, in the following comprehensive document amongst others. It's well worth a read if you want the background:
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/rail/pi/highspeedrail/alternativestudy/pdf/railintervention.pdf
The problem with Labour's position is that they haven't argued with the underlying contention: that capacity is going to run out on lines between London and the north.
If that remains the case, then there's a question of what is done about it if HS2 is cancelled. All the documents shows that Nick Palmer's ludicrous assertion of "20 projects of £100 million each, easing bottle necks all over the country here and now" is utter cloud-cuckoo land on a number of levels. An astoundingly stupid statement for him to come out with.
You also need to consider the economic consequences if the railway routes *do* become capacity limited. Fares will increase, and there will be more lorry and passenger traffic on the already-congested motorway network.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-24446126
Seems quite despicably lenient, and comes shortly after two mothers have been put on trial for comparable cases.