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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What happens next if not much happens?

Like the media, we are attracted to drama. What if Trump is impeached? What if No Deal Brexit leads to economic meltdown? What if both major parties split? What if the EU collapses?

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DecrepitJohnL

1) The reason for dumping Theresa May, or enabling her to retire after a successful and largely uneventful BINO, is that she is a lousy campaigner. She must go before the next election, and she knows it. Before then, the PM is relatively secure because no-one dare move against her for fear of handing the crown to a rival.

2) Labour will stay together because Corbyn is 69 and can't go on forever, and the antisemitism row can depart with him. Policy-wise, there is nothing in the 2017 manifesto to frighten the horses, and the centrists don't seem to have any policies of their own anyway.

3) Ukip's problem is that no-one in the party and certainly not Nigel Farage has any serious policy on Brexit except they are broadly in favour. Ukip's appeal (if any) has more to do with alt-rightism than Brexit, and the social media firms are getting better at blocking that: ask Plato.