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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour Post-Corbyn: Is there hope for Labour’s moderates?
For all the controversy over anti-Semitism and Jeremy Corbyn’s curious selection of international friends, there seems little doubt that Corbyn’s position as Labour leader is secure. Losing a vote of confidence amongst his own MPs by 172 to 40 didn’t dislodge him, and since then his position has been strengthened by the GE2017 campaign. Accusations of anti-Semitism and terrorist sympathies are water off a duck’s back.
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Qtwyain.
That word can be understood in the way "Democratic" is to an African dictatorship. The Blair government, which I suppose "Moderates" supported, made two highly controversial decisions that changed the country forever, and are the basis of most of the arguments people are having today, namely the Iraq War & unfettered A8 migration.
Brexit is the defining issue, even for the Labour succession. At the moment, Labour's main policy is they are maintaining a studied ambiguity (six times) while being opposed to this Tory Brexit but as no-one knows what that will be, not even the Prime Minister, it is hard for Labour moderates (or anyone) to split over this.
I'll ask the question that should be asked of loyalists of all stripes: what would your side have to do to lose your support? If you hold your nose and continue to support now, what would have to happen for that to change?
Despite everything I think about Jeremy Corbyn I'd have him in Downing Street in a heartbeat over Theresa May. And last year I played a key role in a campaign which removed a Tory MP and installed a Labour MP. Its my party and has been as a member for 24 years and I remember lobbying school friends to lobby their parents in 1992 - I am a socialist and proud of it.
There is no way back - without a huge purge that will make the days of Militant look like the good old days. And to initiate a purge, you have to regain control. With the rule changes that are likely to pass in the next few weeks, it is hard to see any path to achieving that control.
Corbyn, McDonnell and Momentum have achieved something quite remarkable. They have destroyed The Labour Party whilst retaining the name.
Those who belonged to the Real Labour tradition have no home under Corbyn or his anointed successors.
We are living through a period of left-on-left toxicity. The only way is to break away. Set out a positive left-of-centre vision for the future of the country. It is not a vision that would work for me. But there is a need for it in our political discourse.
There is no need for Corbynism.
At the moment, about the only thing they can say is that they are not anti-semites, which may be necessary (and one would have hoped a given) but hardly sufficient - and in itself a measure of how debased the arguments within Labour have become.
If they think he is not fit to be PM then they need to say why and not just simply point to the people he meets. That is to echo the mistakes made by the Tories during the last election. There is a case to be made (a strong one IMO) but very few of the “moderates” are making it. They lack both a vision of what Labour should be and the courage to fight for it. That is what they need. And until they develop both of these Corbyn is safe.
Edited: I see @AlistairM has made my point more succinctly. Damnit!
1994 marked the point at which Labour started getting serious about winning again after three successive defeats and so members began to trust the idea of a more centrist, reforming leader. I don't doubt that 2022 could mark another shift back towards the centre because it's not as if there is a competent hard-left successor waiting conveniently in the wings. McDonnell and Abbott won't be interested and have tried before. It wouldn't be inconceivable that the leader is once again someone from the soft-left.
It's an important question for all loyalists: I'd ask the same of some Conservatives if JRM became leader and started enacting some backwards policies.
Hey there - I live within the Newcastle city limits, most of Newcastle is north of Hadrian’s Wall!
Gah the southern ignorance!
http://www.publicsectorexecutive.com/News/yorkshire-council-chiefs-threaten-pull-out-of-asylum-seeker-housing-project
So people do want to come to bradford ;-)
Only fair other parts of the country share the burden.
Unless an alternative party arises it can be even more important to stay inside fighting for what you believe.
Similar to the point I made earlier, I think the Corbynites would have used the words I quote to describe Blairites in the mid 90s. Who is to say what "Real "Labour is? I am not sure Corbyn doesn't have more claim to that title than the moderates, or at least as much right to claim it.
It took the Conservatives eight years, three leaders and three election defeats to travel from Major to Cameron.
I think it's as much about policy direction as the leader inasmuch as the one can't happen without the other, Even if Corbyn were to depart, the policies, as far as we know them and enunciated as they have been by McDonnell, would continue.
One of the many factors which led to Labour's huge win in 1997 was the acceptance of elements of the Thatcher-Major agenda. Voters felt they could trust Blair (and Smith before him) not to turn the clock to 1979 in terms of resurrecting union power.
Where are Labour on adult social care for example? If they want all care to be free and not means tested, fine, I can support that but how will it be paid for? To me, this is now the litmus test of economic and social credibility.
But that is at least partly their own fault for having no idea of what they want, how to do it or why it should be done.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1032229978119827457
Labour will remain the party protecting the working classes for many years to come and will continue to the main progressive force in the UK.
I shall remain loyal to Labour regardless of who leads it.
And I think they’ll probably lead to him to be determined to win in 2020.
I'll get my dressing gown.
And this is important: we have an honourable track record of not allowing extremists into power (during our emancipated democratic era at least). Other countries have not - from Russia, Germany, Spain etc. It's naive to think that it couldn't happen here.
Note: I'm not saying Corbyn is like that.
What Corbyn has done - and it is an achievement - is to take power from a fringe position.
That does not mean that his views have actually become mainstream. That is very clear from the massive lack of support he has from within the PLP.
Of those in my friendship circle who have previously been Labour voters, only one has become a full-fledged Corbynista/Momentum type. Even though she admitted that she wouldn't actually want to live in a country run by Corbyn.
Corbyn has somehow created a sense that his view of Labour is Pure - even when it is a perversion of the values that Labour has campaigned for over decades.
The 2017 manifesto was lots of spending plans - which people will always love so long as they don't think about how it will be funded. It is easy to win support when you promise jam to everyone and claim that only the rich will pay for it. That is cheap politics. It isn't realistic. It isn't a programme for government.
Real is about having a vision and a programme that you can deliver. Corbyn has a perverted world view and a programme that is unaffordable. I don't see how anyone can see that as a Real.
Social Democrats 21.9% (+0.7%)
Sweden Democrats 24.2% (-1.5%)
Slight move to Sweden Democrats on Betfair. I wouldn't be so bullish. YouGov is the only pollster with them leading, and their lead has been cut in half from 4.5% to 2.3%.
Read our 2017 manifesto. The SDP was more left wing.
And as I said, the same applies for loyalists of other parties.
But as it happens, your comparison of Maduro and Corbyn isn't too unrealistic, given Corbyn's enthusiastic support for Maduro's predecessor (who created the mess Venezuela is in), and his lack of condemnation of that regime.
https://twitter.com/RobbieGibb/status/1032333088469045248
He's also nuts but if that starts to be a bar on being a politician the cut in numbers in the Commons is going to have to go a whole lot further.
He doesn't have the best interests of the party or the country at heart.
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-politics-45258341
https://twitter.com/stephen_rth/status/1030849353894776832
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1032358618576900096?s=20
They did fine, but I can't see they were best exactly. All pollsters basically the same.
My point is, JRM is making a gross attempt to completely undermine your party's elected leader and PM - she must be livid!
Also JRM and Steve Baker have tweeted support for Barry Gardiner ruling out a peoples vote as Chuka slutters in his cornflakes
Your MPs did.
Corbyn articulates it here. Sanders and Warren articulate it in the US. But if it wasn't them, someone else would be articulating it. The spokespeople are not as important as the idea. Corbyn is popular because of his political philosophy and in spite of some negatives.
I don 't know whether Labour "moderates" reject Corbyn's approach because they disagree with his policies (which are popular) or because, like Blair, they think that the only way to power is to appeal to the centre with Tory-lite policies that do not overturn the current political approach. The same tension is present in the Democrats in the US. Just how big is the support for the counter revolution? Is it big enough to deliver power?
The most likely outcome of the next election is a minority Labour government, held in check to some extent by the other minor parties and some more right wing Labour MPs. It would be operating in the SM/CU but outside the political structures of the EU. I think it would have an extended honeymoon period and could lead to a majority Labour government in 2027.
Corbyn would step down by say 2024 to be succeeded by someone with a similar political philosophy. But Corbyn is not that important. It is the political counter revolutionary wave that is important. Labour moderates need to get on board or join the Tories.
https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/1032365554512740354?s=20
So lets start on the subject matter I posted tonight,do you think it's right that bradford take 800/900 asylum seekers and shove them in already poorer parts of the city and other places in the country take zip - especially the whiter parts.
Really the man who is anti the West, NATO, and our allies but pro Hamas, Iran and Russia and wants to destroy capitalism and he is not important
That takes the biscuit
Pretty much every government since WWII has combined social democracy and economic liberalism. Corbyn proposes to break from that.
Labour have Chris Williamson and Dawn Butler.