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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Scotland and the electoral system: Why winning the next GE is

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    Trump on Aretha:

    "I want to begin today by expressing my condolences to the family of a person I knew well... She worked for me on numerous occasions.”
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    edited August 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    For those of us betting on Rory Stewart

    Prisons Minister @RoryStewartUK pledges to resign unless assaults fall “substantially” in the ten jails which are getting £10m to tackle drugs & violence. He tells @BBCr4today he wants to see a 25% cut in attacks on staff & prisoners


    https://twitter.com/DannyShawBBC/status/1030359125081956352

    Unless he specified what "substantially" is then he's talking out of his hoop.

    It's right there in the bit you've quoted isn't it? 25%
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    justin124 said:

    matt said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    scotslass said:

    Interesting post.

    However, while regaining Scotland (which looks like a forlorn hope) would be necessary for a Corbyn majority it makes no difference at all to a Corbyn Government. The SNP would certainly favour Labour in a (DUP/Tory) type arrangement. And Corbyn would have little difficulty in accomodating the SNP. Their MPs will like regard him rather more favourably than his own!!!

    Indeed it could be argues that the correct Corbyn strategy is to abandon Scotland or at least try and assist the Nats where current polls indicate they could take a few seats back off the Tories - eg Ochil, Gordon, Stirling etc.

    No way - Ochil and Stirling are likely to be three way contests. Labour will have serious hopes of gaining both.
    Labour gaining both - are you kidding me - not a prayer

    You really do not know much about Scots politics
    Really - perhaps you were one of those who lampooned my suggestion of 4 or 5 Labour seats in 2017?

    These were both Labour -held sets until 2015 - regaining them at some point is a perfectly realistic prospect. The Tories are not the only party capable of moving from third to first place - as occure#rred in some seats there in 2017. Labour managed to the same thing in Scotland in both 1987 and 1997. Stirling was a key Tory/Labour marginal - it having been Michael Forsyth's seat from 1983.
    I guess the point is how many of your other predictions were within shouting distance of accurate?
    Were you to take the trouble to read my comments from late May/early June 2017 you might discover that I did point out that the strong Tory surge in Scotland implied that the GB headline figures were misleading in terms of predicting a sizeable Tory majority. Tory leads of 6 or 7% across GB as whole implied some swing to Labour in England & Wales and,therefore, a hung Parliament was much more than a remote possibility.
    Interesting. He always has the smell of "phony self-publicist" to me, but I could be wrong.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    matt said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    scotslass said:

    Interesting post.

    However, while regaining Scotland (which looks like a forlorn hope) would be necessary for a Corbyn majority it makes no difference at all to a Corbyn Government. The SNP would certainly favour Labour in a (DUP/Tory) type arrangement. And Corbyn would have little difficulty in accomodating the SNP. Their MPs will like regard him rather more favourably than his own!!!

    Indeed it could be argues that the correct Corbyn strategy is to abandon Scotland or at least try and assist the Nats where current polls indicate they could take a few seats back off the Tories - eg Ochil, Gordon, Stirling etc.

    No way - Ochil and Stirling are likely to be three way contests. Labour will have serious hopes of gaining both.
    Labour gaining both - are you kidding me - not a prayer

    You really do not know much about Scots politics
    Really - perhaps you were one of those who lampooned my suggestion of 4 or 5 Labour seats in 2017?

    These were both Labour -held sets until 2015 - regaining them at some point is a perfectly realistic prospect. The Tories are not the only party capable of moving from third to first place - as occure#rred in some seats there in 2017. Labour managed to the same thing in Scotland in both 1987 and 1997. Stirling was a key Tory/Labour marginal - it having been Michael Forsyth's seat from 1983.
    I guess the point is how many of your other predictions were within shouting distance of accurate?
    Were you to take the trouble to read my comments from late May/early June 2017 you might discover that I did point out that the strong Tory surge in Scotland implied that the GB headline figures were misleading in terms of predicting a sizeable Tory majority. Tory leads of 6 or 7% across GB as whole implied some swing to Labour in England & Wales and,therefore, a hung Parliament was much more than a remote possibility.
    Interesting. He always has the smell of "phony self-publicist" to me, but I could be wrong.
    As it turned out, the pollsters had overcorrected for their 2015 polling debacle and the Tory lead was 2 or 3% - rather than 6 or 7%!
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited August 2018
    Mr Foremain,

    'The Life of Brian' is indeed a miracle. A miracle of predicting what will come to pass.

    Example 1;
    Stan. I want to be a woman. From now on I want you all to call me Loretta.
    Reg: What!?
    Stan: It's my right as a man.
    Judith: Why do you want to be Loretta, Stan?
    Stan: I want to have babies.
    Reg: You want to have babies?!?!?!
    Stan: It's every man's right to have babies if he wants them.
    Reg: But you can't have babies.
    Stan: Don't you oppress me.
    Reg: I'm not oppressing you, Stan -- you haven't got a womb. Where's the
    fetus going to gestate? You going to keep it in a box?

    Example 2:

    MATTHIAS: Look. I don't think it ought to be blasphemy, just saying 'Pillarbox'.
    CROWD: Oooh! He said it again! Oooh!...
    OFFICIAL: You're only making it worse for yourself!
    MATTHIAS: Making it worse?! How could it be worse?! Pillarbox!, Pillarbox! Pillarbox!


    Example 3
    Reg: "Your death will stand as a landmark in the continuing struggle to liberate the parent land from the hands of the Roman imperialist aggressors, excluding those concerned with drainage, medicine, roads, housing, education, viniculture and any other Romans contributing to the welfare of Jews of both sexes and hermaphrodites.


    And the famous
    Brian: I'm not the Messiah! Will you please listen? I am not the Messiah, do you understand? Honestly!
    Girl: Only the true Messiah denies His divinity.

    And finally, for Mrs Duffy …
    Mandy: Who are all those people?
    Brian: A few friends, popped by for a second.
    Mandy: Popped by? Swarmed by is more like it. There's a multitude out there.


    Edit: OK, Mrs Duffy said "Flocking from" but that's near enough.








  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    Dura_Ace said:

    For those of us betting on Rory Stewart

    Prisons Minister @RoryStewartUK pledges to resign unless assaults fall “substantially” in the ten jails which are getting £10m to tackle drugs & violence. He tells @BBCr4today he wants to see a 25% cut in attacks on staff & prisoners


    https://twitter.com/DannyShawBBC/status/1030359125081956352

    Unless he specified what "substantially" is then he's talking out of his hoop.

    The most telling thing about RS is how he has managed to market his chaotic and ultimately disastrous tenure in Iraq as some sort of masterful exposition of the diplomatic and governmental arts. Most of us who actually were in Iraq were cheering on Al-Sadr's Barmy Army when they besieged Rory's gubernatorial compound in Dhi Qar. At the very least, it meant they were taking a break from trying to kill us.
    I was inclined to ask what he'd been smoking.

    RS seems like a very decent guy, well-spoken, but with severely limited administrative skills.
    The idea of him as prospective leader of the party summons the shade of Douglas Home.

    We'll see, I guess.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    It was the loss of all the Scottish seats that made a Labour majority seem like a very distant prospect, unless they could win back lots of those seats the kinds of majorities they would need to turn over in England looked pretty bleak. Combined with UKIP taking older labour voters and the Greens successfully appealing to the left wing crowd, they had started looking promising in one or two places.

    Thankfully Corbyn came along took out the Green threat on our left wing won back some of the UKIP supporters and even made some small inroads back into Scotland. A Labour majority still looks difficult but it is at least plausible now and some of the credit for that has to go to Corbyn.

  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    When Corbyn was elected leader I was convinced that this would lead to a break away from the LP down the line. Recently I began doubting this but I think again that it is more likely than not. This year's LP conference may be the key. If anti-Corbyn MPs cannot see a likely route to reverse the take over of the party then a large group walking and establishing a new centre left party makes sense partucluarly if it becomes the official opposition. Another trigger point could be Brexit and I suspect that that is what is holding things back. Launching a new party after Brexit defuses that contentious part of the agenda and it becomes democratic "moderate" versus extremist threat to democracy. A big change in public opinion could make a reverse Brexit platform prior to a deal a tempting strategy but the new party would be defined by Brexit - too risky.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Stokes in for Curran. Feel a bit sorry for the latter who has done little wrong. Several of our so called front line batsmen have not matched his scoring.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291
    BBC news dodgy priorities #9999:

    They are carrying live updates on Barry Chuckle's funeral.

    No, seriously, they are.
  • This is a fecking disgrace. A DISGRACE.

    For tomorrow’s Test we’ve dropped Sam Curran for Ben Stokes.

    We wouldn’t have won the first test without Curran.

    If I had tickets for Trent Bridge I’d be booing Ben Stokes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    For those of us betting on Rory Stewart

    Prisons Minister @RoryStewartUK pledges to resign unless assaults fall “substantially” in the ten jails which are getting £10m to tackle drugs & violence. He tells @BBCr4today he wants to see a 25% cut in attacks on staff & prisoners


    https://twitter.com/DannyShawBBC/status/1030359125081956352

    Unless he specified what "substantially" is then he's talking out of his hoop.

    The most telling thing about RS is how he has managed to market his chaotic and ultimately disastrous tenure in Iraq as some sort of masterful exposition of the diplomatic and governmental arts. Most of us who actually were in Iraq were cheering on Al-Sadr's Barmy Army when they besieged Rory's gubernatorial compound in Dhi Qar. At the very least, it meant they were taking a break from trying to kill us.
    I was inclined to ask what he'd been smoking.

    RS seems like a very decent guy, well-spoken, but with severely limited administrative skills.
    The idea of him as prospective leader of the party summons the shade of Douglas Home.

    We'll see, I guess.
    I'm not sure he has got how this politics stuff works. Taking responsibility for the consequences of your policy is really novel but I don't see it catching on.

    That said, if £10m is spent on additional security and drug testing in 10 prisons drug use really should fall. The strong suspicion is that the Prison Service turns a blind eye to a lot of drug use because it keeps the lid on violence. That will be the challenge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Hmm, taking part in a YouGov poll about how much I trust certain institutions and like various politicians - how to rate Corbyn? On the one hand I really do not like him much, but there are worse than him out there, like Chris Williamson.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited August 2018
    Pro_Rata said:

    BBC news dodgy priorities #9999:

    They are carrying live updates on Barry Chuckle's funeral.

    No, seriously, they are.

    Please tell me the pallbearers are saying "to me, to you"!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    It was the loss of all the Scottish seats that made a Labour majority seem like a very distant prospect, unless they could win back lots of those seats the kinds of majorities they would need to turn over in England looked pretty bleak. Combined with UKIP taking older labour voters and the Greens successfully appealing to the left wing crowd, they had started looking promising in one or two places.

    Thankfully Corbyn came along took out the Green threat on our left wing won back some of the UKIP supporters and even made some small inroads back into Scotland. A Labour majority still looks difficult but it is at least plausible now and some of the credit for that has to go to Corbyn.

    That's...actually probably fair enough.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    It was the loss of all the Scottish seats that made a Labour majority seem like a very distant prospect, unless they could win back lots of those seats the kinds of majorities they would need to turn over in England looked pretty bleak. Combined with UKIP taking older labour voters and the Greens successfully appealing to the left wing crowd, they had started looking promising in one or two places.

    Thankfully Corbyn came along took out the Green threat on our left wing won back some of the UKIP supporters and even made some small inroads back into Scotland. A Labour majority still looks difficult but it is at least plausible now and some of the credit for that has to go to Corbyn.

    Fair comment
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    kle4 said:

    It was the loss of all the Scottish seats that made a Labour majority seem like a very distant prospect, unless they could win back lots of those seats the kinds of majorities they would need to turn over in England looked pretty bleak. Combined with UKIP taking older labour voters and the Greens successfully appealing to the left wing crowd, they had started looking promising in one or two places.

    Thankfully Corbyn came along took out the Green threat on our left wing won back some of the UKIP supporters and even made some small inroads back into Scotland. A Labour majority still looks difficult but it is at least plausible now and some of the credit for that has to go to Corbyn.

    That's...actually probably fair enough.
    It is.

    I also expect a repeat of the 2015 Miliband/Sturgeon gambit in English marginals.

    Probably worth 500 votes in each. Which might be enough to secure a Tory majority.

    It is the massive advantage of an election that has to be called, over one that is called by choice and then all about 'how big is Mrs May's majority'
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    When Corbyn was elected leader I was convinced that this would lead to a break away from the LP down the line. Recently I began doubting this but I think again that it is more likely than not. This year's LP conference may be the key. If anti-Corbyn MPs cannot see a likely route to reverse the take over of the party then a large group walking and establishing a new centre left party makes sense partucluarly if it becomes the official opposition. Another trigger point could be Brexit and I suspect that that is what is holding things back. Launching a new party after Brexit defuses that contentious part of the agenda and it becomes democratic "moderate" versus extremist threat to democracy. A big change in public opinion could make a reverse Brexit platform prior to a deal a tempting strategy but the new party would be defined by Brexit - too risky.

    Very unlikely indeed. If these socalled 'moderates' failed to walk out 18 months ago when the party was circa 20% adrift in the polls , they are not going to do so now when Labour is at least level pegging.Moreover Brexit - whilst clearly important - is not a very salient issue in terms of voting behaviour.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    kle4 said:

    Hmm, taking part in a YouGov poll about how much I trust certain institutions and like various politicians - how to rate Corbyn? On the one hand I really do not like him much, but there are worse than him out there, like Chris Williamson.

    Remember Pascal's wager. Put your faith in comrade Corbyn, it's the safe bet.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    justin124 said:

    When Corbyn was elected leader I was convinced that this would lead to a break away from the LP down the line. Recently I began doubting this but I think again that it is more likely than not. This year's LP conference may be the key. If anti-Corbyn MPs cannot see a likely route to reverse the take over of the party then a large group walking and establishing a new centre left party makes sense partucluarly if it becomes the official opposition. Another trigger point could be Brexit and I suspect that that is what is holding things back. Launching a new party after Brexit defuses that contentious part of the agenda and it becomes democratic "moderate" versus extremist threat to democracy. A big change in public opinion could make a reverse Brexit platform prior to a deal a tempting strategy but the new party would be defined by Brexit - too risky.

    Very unlikely indeed. If these socalled 'moderates' failed to walk out 18 months ago when the party was circa 20% adrift in the polls , they are not going to do so now when Labour is at least level pegging.Moreover Brexit - whilst clearly important - is not a very salient issue in terms of voting behaviour.
    Au contraire.

    It is easier to hold one when it looks like he would fail of his own accord. Much harder when staying in endorses his position, and makes a Corbyn led government more likely.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    It was the loss of all the Scottish seats that made a Labour majority seem like a very distant prospect, unless they could win back lots of those seats the kinds of majorities they would need to turn over in England looked pretty bleak. Combined with UKIP taking older labour voters and the Greens successfully appealing to the left wing crowd, they had started looking promising in one or two places.

    Thankfully Corbyn came along took out the Green threat on our left wing won back some of the UKIP supporters and even made some small inroads back into Scotland. A Labour majority still looks difficult but it is at least plausible now and some of the credit for that has to go to Corbyn.

    Fair comment
    Though if the party were to split, quite a lot of the credit would also go to him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    John_M said:

    kle4 said:

    Hmm, taking part in a YouGov poll about how much I trust certain institutions and like various politicians - how to rate Corbyn? On the one hand I really do not like him much, but there are worse than him out there, like Chris Williamson.

    Remember Pascal's wager. Put your faith in comrade Corbyn, it's the safe bet.
    It was really just about where do I place him on a scale of 0-10 in terms of liking him - he cannot be 0, since I do dislike some others worse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    justin124 said:

    When Corbyn was elected leader I was convinced that this would lead to a break away from the LP down the line. Recently I began doubting this but I think again that it is more likely than not. This year's LP conference may be the key. If anti-Corbyn MPs cannot see a likely route to reverse the take over of the party then a large group walking and establishing a new centre left party makes sense partucluarly if it becomes the official opposition. Another trigger point could be Brexit and I suspect that that is what is holding things back. Launching a new party after Brexit defuses that contentious part of the agenda and it becomes democratic "moderate" versus extremist threat to democracy. A big change in public opinion could make a reverse Brexit platform prior to a deal a tempting strategy but the new party would be defined by Brexit - too risky.

    Very unlikely indeed. If these socalled 'moderates' failed to walk out 18 months ago when the party was circa 20% adrift in the polls , they are not going to do so now when Labour is at least level pegging.Moreover Brexit - whilst clearly important - is not a very salient issue in terms of voting behaviour.
    That rather assumes there is no principled reason to split the party.
    Which is just about arguable, I guess.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,910
    Afternoon all :)

    Trying to do a little research on my previous question about the rights of the citizens of former Portuguese colonial territories to reside in the EU.

    It appears that it was possible after 1974 (and may still be possible) for citizens of the likes of Angola, Guinea-Bissau, Cape Verde, Sao Tome & Principe and Mozambique to claim Portuguese citizenship if they can claim a connection with Portugal itself.

    As we know, East Timor was a former Portuguese colony annexed by Indonesia in 1975. That annexation was not widely recognised internationally and even though East Timor is now independent, the East Timorese can claim right of residence in Portugal through the same route.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,778
    Nigelb said:

    It was the loss of all the Scottish seats that made a Labour majority seem like a very distant prospect, unless they could win back lots of those seats the kinds of majorities they would need to turn over in England looked pretty bleak. Combined with UKIP taking older labour voters and the Greens successfully appealing to the left wing crowd, they had started looking promising in one or two places.

    Thankfully Corbyn came along took out the Green threat on our left wing won back some of the UKIP supporters and even made some small inroads back into Scotland. A Labour majority still looks difficult but it is at least plausible now and some of the credit for that has to go to Corbyn.

    Fair comment
    Though if the party were to split, quite a lot of the credit would also go to him.
    rattled:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1030405756544274433
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    When Corbyn was elected leader I was convinced that this would lead to a break away from the LP down the line. Recently I began doubting this but I think again that it is more likely than not. This year's LP conference may be the key. If anti-Corbyn MPs cannot see a likely route to reverse the take over of the party then a large group walking and establishing a new centre left party makes sense partucluarly if it becomes the official opposition. Another trigger point could be Brexit and I suspect that that is what is holding things back. Launching a new party after Brexit defuses that contentious part of the agenda and it becomes democratic "moderate" versus extremist threat to democracy. A big change in public opinion could make a reverse Brexit platform prior to a deal a tempting strategy but the new party would be defined by Brexit - too risky.

    Very unlikely indeed. If these socalled 'moderates' failed to walk out 18 months ago when the party was circa 20% adrift in the polls , they are not going to do so now when Labour is at least level pegging.Moreover Brexit - whilst clearly important - is not a very salient issue in terms of voting behaviour.
    Au contraire.

    It is easier to hold one when it looks like he would fail of his own accord. Much harder when staying in endorses his position, and makes a Corbyn led government more likely.

    But a Corbyn government would be dependent on their support - which could be withheld in respect of anything they perceive to be extreme. That would make more sense than going down the failed SDP route again - particularly when there appears to be little clamour for it from the wider public.The portents for such a course are not good at all - and they well know it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Trying to do a little research on my previous question about the rights of the citizens of former Portuguese colonial territories to reside in the EU.

    It appears that it was possible after 1974 (and may still be possible) for citizens of the likes of Angola, Guinea-Bissau, Cape Verde, Sao Tome & Principe and Mozambique to claim Portuguese citizenship if they can claim a connection with Portugal itself.

    As we know, East Timor was a former Portuguese colony annexed by Indonesia in 1975. That annexation was not widely recognised internationally and even though East Timor is now independent, the East Timorese can claim right of residence in Portugal through the same route.

    Yes, but look at the net flows:
    https://knoema.com/atlas/Portugal/topics/Demographics/Population/Net-migration-rate
  • DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    For those of us betting on Rory Stewart

    Prisons Minister @RoryStewartUK pledges to resign unless assaults fall “substantially” in the ten jails which are getting £10m to tackle drugs & violence. He tells @BBCr4today he wants to see a 25% cut in attacks on staff & prisoners


    https://twitter.com/DannyShawBBC/status/1030359125081956352

    Unless he specified what "substantially" is then he's talking out of his hoop.

    The most telling thing about RS is how he has managed to market his chaotic and ultimately disastrous tenure in Iraq as some sort of masterful exposition of the diplomatic and governmental arts. Most of us who actually were in Iraq were cheering on Al-Sadr's Barmy Army when they besieged Rory's gubernatorial compound in Dhi Qar. At the very least, it meant they were taking a break from trying to kill us.
    I was inclined to ask what he'd been smoking.

    RS seems like a very decent guy, well-spoken, but with severely limited administrative skills.
    The idea of him as prospective leader of the party summons the shade of Douglas Home.

    We'll see, I guess.
    I'm not sure he has got how this politics stuff works. Taking responsibility for the consequences of your policy is really novel but I don't see it catching on.

    That said, if £10m is spent on additional security and drug testing in 10 prisons drug use really should fall. The strong suspicion is that the Prison Service turns a blind eye to a lot of drug use because it keeps the lid on violence. That will be the challenge.
    It isn’t drugs they really turn a blind eye to. It is the booze.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    When Corbyn was elected leader I was convinced that this would lead to a break away from the LP down the line. Recently I began doubting this but I think again that it is more likely than not. This year's LP conference may be the key. If anti-Corbyn MPs cannot see a likely route to reverse the take over of the party then a large group walking and establishing a new centre left party makes sense partucluarly if it becomes the official opposition. Another trigger point could be Brexit and I suspect that that is what is holding things back. Launching a new party after Brexit defuses that contentious part of the agenda and it becomes democratic "moderate" versus extremist threat to democracy. A big change in public opinion could make a reverse Brexit platform prior to a deal a tempting strategy but the new party would be defined by Brexit - too risky.

    Very unlikely indeed. If these socalled 'moderates' failed to walk out 18 months ago when the party was circa 20% adrift in the polls , they are not going to do so now when Labour is at least level pegging.Moreover Brexit - whilst clearly important - is not a very salient issue in terms of voting behaviour.
    Au contraire.

    It is easier to hold one when it looks like he would fail of his own accord. Much harder when staying in endorses his position, and makes a Corbyn led government more likely.

    But a Corbyn government would be dependent on their support - which could be withheld in respect of anything they perceive to be extreme. That would make more sense than going down the failed SDP route again - particularly when there appears to be little clamour for it from the wider public.The portents for such a course are not good at all - and they well know it.
    That does appear to be the thinking. Unless he wins a stonking majority rebels will have an impact on plenty of things, but if they split they probably won't get re-elected. It makes little sense to stick around when thinking the party was about to be hammered because of quicker to leave many parties.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    For those of us betting on Rory Stewart

    Prisons Minister @RoryStewartUK pledges to resign unless assaults fall “substantially” in the ten jails which are getting £10m to tackle drugs & violence. He tells @BBCr4today he wants to see a 25% cut in attacks on staff & prisoners


    https://twitter.com/DannyShawBBC/status/1030359125081956352

    Unless he specified what "substantially" is then he's talking out of his hoop.

    The most telling thing about RS is how he has managed to market his chaotic and ultimately disastrous tenure in Iraq as some sort of masterful exposition of the diplomatic and governmental arts. Most of us who actually were in Iraq were cheering on Al-Sadr's Barmy Army when they besieged Rory's gubernatorial compound in Dhi Qar. At the very least, it meant they were taking a break from trying to kill us.
    I was inclined to ask what he'd been smoking.

    RS seems like a very decent guy, well-spoken, but with severely limited administrative skills.
    The idea of him as prospective leader of the party summons the shade of Douglas Home.

    We'll see, I guess.
    I'm not sure he has got how this politics stuff works. Taking responsibility for the consequences of your policy is really novel but I don't see it catching on.

    That said, if £10m is spent on additional security and drug testing in 10 prisons drug use really should fall. The strong suspicion is that the Prison Service turns a blind eye to a lot of drug use because it keeps the lid on violence. That will be the challenge.
    It isn’t drugs they really turn a blind eye to. It is the booze.
    That must be the methanol.....
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    DavidL said:

    Stokes in for Curran. Feel a bit sorry for the latter who has done little wrong. Several of our so called front line batsmen have not matched his scoring.

    Agreed. The ancient principle of not changing a winning team should have applied here. I wouldn't have played Stokes.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Pulpstar said:

    Morning all,

    Wow. Seems the Cult have gone full on mental this morning with #hodgecomparison

    Do you think comparing the disciplinary procedures of a political party with Brownshirts thundering up your stairs (or rather the stairs of relatives before you were born) was well advised?

    I find David Baddiel generally speaks a lot of sense on the antisemitism issue.

    https://twitter.com/Baddiel/status/1030188276353822721
    Yes, he's neither with the cult of Jezza, but he does call out the more OTT musings from the 'moderates' . A sensible voice of reason.
    A social media problem (which we contribute to a bit on PB) is that it's increasingly common to circulate for a wider audience what some random person has said in a tweet. That's fine if it's someone with a credible record like Margaret or David (regardless of what we think of these comments), but it enables every nutter who's got an opinion to appear to be speaking for a mob, when it's actually a teenager trolling on his phone.

    I think, though, the Corbyn critics are repeating the mistake made by the Mail et al when he first became leader, to mix serious criticism with OTT hysteria. After a while people just say "oh, there you go again", even if there was a valid point.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    Very unlikely indeed. If these socalled 'moderates' failed to walk out 18 months ago when the party was circa 20% adrift in the polls , they are not going to do so now when Labour is at least level pegging.Moreover Brexit - whilst clearly important - is not a very salient issue in terms of voting behaviour.
    Au contraire.

    It is easier to hold one when it looks like he would fail of his own accord. Much harder when staying in endorses his position, and makes a Corbyn led government more likely.

    But a Corbyn government would be dependent on their support - which could be withheld in respect of anything they perceive to be extreme. That would make more sense than going down the failed SDP route again - particularly when there appears to be little clamour for it from the wider public.The portents for such a course are not good at all - and they well know it.
    The only angle would be those that would actively prefer a Conservative government to a Corbyn led Labour one and are willing to potentially sacrifice their jobs to possibly achieve it. Which is why the numbers if it happens will probably be quite small. I think Woodcock came out and said he prefers May to Corbyn but he is part of a small fringe (or was) within Labour. The figures I've heard range from 10-20 mostly but I really would be surprised to see anything much over 30, which if this group concentrated on promoting themselves rather than criticising the Labour leadership could even be beneficial.

    The only time a mass move by MPs from Labour to a new party was really possible (and even then only a small possibility) was before the 2017 election, many of the things that drove those MPs opposing him beyond a smaller core group that have a principled problem with him have gone. Many Labour MPs want to get a Labour government in power to do good things and believed he was a block on that but don't believe in that any longer. Some may just want to hang on to their jobs and thought Corbyn would lose them votes. Those Labour MPs who think he just should not become prime minister to the point they would prefer a Conservative government are those that are most likely to go for SDP II although as you mention they could possibly hold Labour back more by staying in, unless they get deselected.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Pulpstar said:
    A social media problem (which we contribute to a bit on PB) is that it's increasingly common to circulate for a wider audience what some random person has said in a tweet. That's fine if it's someone with a credible record like Margaret or David (regardless of what we think of these comments), but it enables every nutter who's got an opinion to appear to be speaking for a mob, when it's actually a teenager trolling on his phone.

    I think, though, the Corbyn critics are repeating the mistake made by the Mail et al when he first became leader, to mix serious criticism with OTT hysteria. After a while people just say "oh, there you go again", even if there was a valid point.
    I would be interested in your thoughts on this, particularly the 2nd question below.

    There are some pretty extreme political groups in Israel who have racist views about Arabs generally and Palestinians in particular. Some want all Arabs expelled from Israel, not just Israel as it currently exists, but a greater Israel encompassing all the Occupied Territories. The way Palestinians in those territories are treated is horrible and demeaning. Land is seized with little or no compensation; farmers can no longer farm; soldiers treat civilians at checkpoints in dismissive and dehumanising ways. The current Israeli PM is corrupt, arrogant and shows no wish to seek peace. The new nationality law is a disgrace and demeans all non-Jewish citizens in Israel: Arabs, Druze, Christians. Israel has carried out a policy of targeted assassinations of its enemies. And so on.

    Even those who wish Israel well need to recognise and criticise its awful behaviour and that amongst its political class there are groups and people who are, on any reading, pretty repellent.

    Corbyn has always justified his meetings with Palestinians with pretty repellent views on the basis that it is important to have dialogue and a debate because this is the only way to get peace and that this is what he has been doing all his life and that it has been his life’s work.

    Pretty strong words. So let’s take him at his word and assume he is sincere.

    If what he says is the case, 2 questions for his supporters on here:-

    1. Why over the last 40 years has he never once had a debate or dialogue with anyone on the Israeli side, including any of the ghastly people listed above, in order to advance peace?

    2. Why not, now that he’s Opposition Leader and a possible PM, now seek to meet some of those on the Israeli side - from moderates to extremists to everyone in between - in order to have dialogue and debate and advance the cause of peace? What possible objection could he have to doing this?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Morning all,

    Wow. Seems the Cult have gone full on mental this morning with #hodgecomparison

    Do you think comparing the disciplinary procedures of a political party with Brownshirts thundering up your stairs (or rather the stairs of relatives before you were born) was well advised?

    I find David Baddiel generally speaks a lot of sense on the antisemitism issue.

    https://twitter.com/Baddiel/status/1030188276353822721
    Yes, he's neither with the cult of Jezza, but he does call out the more OTT musings from the 'moderates' . A sensible voice of reason.
    Agreed. He was great on Frankie Boyle’s show earlier this year talking about this issue (which upset a lot of Corbyn’s supporters on twitter).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    This is a fecking disgrace. A DISGRACE.

    For tomorrow’s Test we’ve dropped Sam Curran for Ben Stokes.

    We wouldn’t have won the first test without Curran.

    If I had tickets for Trent Bridge I’d be booing Ben Stokes.

    We wouldn't have won the second one without Curran either. Him chucking his wicket away sealed the victory.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Horrible decision from the selectors.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Has Corbyn been caught doing anything else ropey?
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    Has Corbyn been caught doing anything else ropey?

    Claiming he never shares platforms with terrorists....
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Cyclefree said:

    Even those who wish Israel well need to recognise and criticise its awful behaviour and that amongst its political class there are groups and people who are, on any reading, pretty repellent.

    Corbyn has always justified his meetings with Palestinians with pretty repellent views on the basis that it is important to have dialogue and a debate because this is the only way to get peace and that this is what he has been doing all his life and that it has been his life’s work.

    Pretty strong words. So let’s take him at his word and assume he is sincere.

    If what he says is the case, 2 questions for his supporters on here:-

    1. Why over the last 40 years has he never once had a debate or dialogue with anyone on the Israeli side, including any of the ghastly people listed above, in order to advance peace?

    2. Why not, now that he’s Opposition Leader and a possible PM, now seek to meet some of those on the Israeli side - from moderates to extremists to everyone in between - in order to have dialogue and debate and advance the cause of peace? What possible objection could he have to doing this?
    What is our excuse for the reverse policy?

    You list the terrible things done, these things are done (at least largely) by the government or with its blessing or these thoughts aren't too far from power, the coalition nature of the Israeli government means you can have extreme parties with an influence on the government.

    Despite this we recognise Israel, meet with their officials, maintain diplomatic ties, denounce their opponents and even sell them weapons. We mostly do not do these things with the Palestinians.

    I think we do it because it is good business, they are somewhat players on the international scene and we don't really care for the Palestinians who have little economic or diplomatic value to us. Removing any angle were you may care about Palestinians lives (which isn't to say any particular people don't) and any actions that back the Palestinians at the cost of angering the Israelis just become illogical.

    I think Corbyn does the reverse because as a representative of parliament and by extension the British people he is representing a connection our government officially (mostly) rejects.

    I think he does this because the Palestinians are the ones being occupied by another state, because he doesn't wish his country to sell weapons to make these people victims and doesn't wish for his country to back the occupying country because it is easier either economically or diplomatically.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,910
    Nigelb said:
    Indeed, there's more than a hint that increasing prosperity in Angola (oil) and Cape Verde (tourism) is tempting people from Portugal to return and perhaps tempting younger Portuguese to try their luck in the former colonies (no different I suppose to young British people going to Australia or NZ?).

    If that's right, the Salah Café might struggle for clientele but anecdotally I find Portuguese cafes do very good food (there's a cracking one in Woking). I've never had a poor full English and the pastel de nata are usually home made.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Cyclefree said:



    1. Why over the last 40 years has he never once had a debate or dialogue with anyone on the Israeli side, including any of the ghastly people listed above, in order to advance peace?

    2. Why not, now that he’s Opposition Leader and a possible PM, now seek to meet some of those on the Israeli side - from moderates to extremists to everyone in between - in order to have dialogue and debate and advance the cause of peace? What possible objection could he have to doing this?

    Re 1: I agree that it would have been worth a try. He says he's talked to militant settlers and right-wing Israeli politicians to hear their point of view and argue the case for change, so "never once" probably overstates it, but I think his long history of pro-Palestinian activism has made it easier and perhaps more natural to try to talk to the various wings of the Palestinians. I'm not sure that many Israeli politicians would have been willing to talk to an obscure pro-Palestinian backbencher?

    Re 2: There's the same problem - he's found that even members of the British Jewish establishment (though obviously not everyone) are unwilling to meet him to discuss the anti-semitism issue: their view as I understand it is that he needs to admit error, accept the ILHR with every example without argument and expel some colleagues before they'll even talk to him. Are there Israeli politicians who are keen to meet him?

    In addition, as a Labour member who happens to be really interested in Israel I still don't want him getting into Middle East issues as a priority as LOTO - he's been forced to keep debating them because of all the attacks of his history, but really he should be (and is, though it's not much reported) talking about Brexit, the economy, and so on. He's not (so far as I know) talking seriously to Palestinians either at the moment, and nor should he: there are more pressing issues.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Nigelb said:

    It was the loss of all the Scottish seats that made a Labour majority seem like a very distant prospect, unless they could win back lots of those seats the kinds of majorities they would need to turn over in England looked pretty bleak. Combined with UKIP taking older labour voters and the Greens successfully appealing to the left wing crowd, they had started looking promising in one or two places.

    Thankfully Corbyn came along took out the Green threat on our left wing won back some of the UKIP supporters and even made some small inroads back into Scotland. A Labour majority still looks difficult but it is at least plausible now and some of the credit for that has to go to Corbyn.

    Fair comment
    Though if the party were to split, quite a lot of the credit would also go to him.
    rattled:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1030405756544274433
    Comment under it: "if you [Owen Jones] were @BorisJohnson or @Jacob_Rees_Mogg people might listen to your opinion"

    Harsh - but amusing.
  • “he's found that even members of the British Jewish establishment (though obviously not everyone) are unwilling to meet him to discuss the anti-semitism issue: “

    Erhhh they did and all he did was spend the night shrugging.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    but really he should be (and is, though it's not much reported) talking about Brexit

    I've heard him talk about Brexit, Nick. His personal view whilst sounding 'fair enough' is actually a large dash of cherries with picked cherries on the side.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    tlg86 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    BBC news dodgy priorities #9999:

    They are carrying live updates on Barry Chuckle's funeral.

    No, seriously, they are.

    Please tell me the pallbearers are saying "to me, to you"!
    You know that really painful thing where you end up snorting a fizzy drink? Well....
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,910
    Afternoon all :)

    The reality of international relations is generally based on the notion of "my enemy's enemy is my friend". The West supported and propped up some odious regimes during the Cold War because the alternative was anarchy and likely domination by Moscow.

    So of course did the USSR for the opposite reasons.

    After WW1 Britain and France tried to spread democracy through the new states of Central and Eastern Europe but in the face of the possibility of Bolshevism via the ballot box allowed the authoritarian nationalists to prevail and in the end we even threw the last remaining democracy of sorts, Czechoslovakia, to the wolves to keep the peace for a few months.

    There was some hope after the Berlin Wall fell we might be moving into a new era of international relations and the expulsion of Iraq from Kuwait was a success but it's all gone wrong since.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044
    Pro_Rata said:

    BBC news dodgy priorities #9999:

    They are carrying live updates on Barry Chuckle's funeral.

    No, seriously, they are.

    "Back to you in the studio"

    "Back to me in the studio"

    "Back to you in the studio"

    "Back to me in the studio"
  • Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 39% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    via @KantarPublic, 09 - 13 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 09 Jul
  • Pro_Rata said:

    BBC news dodgy priorities #9999:

    They are carrying live updates on Barry Chuckle's funeral.

    No, seriously, they are.

    "Back to you in the studio"

    "Back to me in the studio"

    "Back to you in the studio"

    "Back to me in the studio"
    I think he'd have laughed at that one
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Trying to do a little research on my previous question about the rights of the citizens of former Portuguese colonial territories to reside in the EU.

    It appears that it was possible after 1974 (and may still be possible) for citizens of the likes of Angola, Guinea-Bissau, Cape Verde, Sao Tome & Principe and Mozambique to claim Portuguese citizenship if they can claim a connection with Portugal itself.

    As we know, East Timor was a former Portuguese colony annexed by Indonesia in 1975. That annexation was not widely recognised internationally and even though East Timor is now independent, the East Timorese can claim right of residence in Portugal through the same route.

    You can get Portuguese citizenship from Goa also I think.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    DavidL said:

    philiph said:

    Morning all,

    Wow. Seems the Cult have gone full on mental this morning with #hodgecomparison

    Do you think comparing the disciplinary procedures of a political party with Brownshirts thundering up your stairs (or rather the stairs of relatives before you were born) was well advised?

    I find David Baddiel generally speaks a lot of sense on the antisemitism issue.

    https://twitter.com/Baddiel/status/1030188276353822721
    Almost everyone on all sides of this argument has lost all sense of perspective. Margaret Hodge's intervention yesterday was petrol on the flames. #hodgecomparisons is pretty vile.

    It's hard to see how the two sides can start talking with each other again.
    Hard to miss the irony here (my bold above), as JC persistently and consistently uses the 'We have to talk to get peace' as his reason for rubbing shoulders with terrorists and the like.
    You mean 'talk to people which I already agree with'. Actually talking to 'the other side' is something he's never done.
    Was there ever a reply to the request that he specify when and with whom he had allegedly had meetings at the Knesset as he claimed on C4?
    It was probably the IRA....
  • British security sources tell ABC News' @meekwire that Salih Khater, who drove through cyclists into security barriers at Parliament, is not believed to be a radicalized extremist. Khater appears to have no links to terrorism and they are looking at other personal motives

    https://twitter.com/jamesaalongman/status/1030417021379465216?s=21
  • Sky are using their interview with Dame Margaret Hodge as lead story all day and there is no way this is going away anytime soon. The bitterness is now entrenched on both sides and seems irreconcilable

    The government have been given a summer free pass, apart from Boris and the burka, and I am sure they really cannot believe their luck. In just under three weeks Parliament returns and the whole row in labour steps up a notch as labour mps vote on the International recognisition.

    In some ways labour have been fortunate Parliament is in recess as labour mps would have been hounded by the media for their views if they had been around. No such option shortly
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181


    In some ways labour have been fortunate Parliament is in recess as labour mps would have been hounded by the media for their views if they had been around. No such option shortly

    It may be that this row would not have risen to this level were it not for the recess. Not that it isn't important, just that perhaps it is easier to delve into an internal battle when there is nothing else to act as a distraction.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited August 2018
    kle4 said:


    In some ways labour have been fortunate Parliament is in recess as labour mps would have been hounded by the media for their views if they had been around. No such option shortly

    It may be that this row would not have risen to this level were it not for the recess. Not that it isn't important, just that perhaps it is easier to delve into an internal battle when there is nothing else to act as a distraction.
    Yes and to be honest only Boris as only Boris can did interrupt the labour warfare for a short time but that seems somewhat forgotten. Dame Margaret has stoked the flames in a big way and the fissures have just widened and seem to be total. Even she is calling Corbyn a cult
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    NB now is probably not the best time to lay the Sweden Democrats for most seats on Betfair. YouGov are due to be polling this weekend if they're following their regular monthly pattern and they have consistently shown the best results for the Sweden Democrats. On the likely assumption that they will continue this trend, there will probably be better laying opportunities after that poll comes out.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Meeks, whilst not betting on the market I'm interested to see how it turns out.

    What sort of system does Sweden use? And, if FPTP or similar, how closely (usually) does vote share correlate to seat numbers?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    NB now is probably not the best time to lay the Sweden Democrats for most seats on Betfair. YouGov are due to be polling this weekend if they're following their regular monthly pattern and they have consistently shown the best results for the Sweden Democrats. On the likely assumption that they will continue this trend, there will probably be better laying opportunities after that poll comes out.

    Assuming that the outcome will be something like centre-right 40%, centre-left 40%, Sweden Democrats 20%, it must be very tempting for the former to cut a deal with the SD's.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Sky are using their interview with Dame Margaret Hodge as lead story all day and there is no way this is going away anytime soon. The bitterness is now entrenched on both sides and seems irreconcilable

    The government have been given a summer free pass, apart from Boris and the burka, and I am sure they really cannot believe their luck. In just under three weeks Parliament returns and the whole row in labour steps up a notch as labour mps vote on the International recognisition.

    In some ways labour have been fortunate Parliament is in recess as labour mps would have been hounded by the media for their views if they had been around. No such option shortly

    Chris Williamson is wrong that this doesn't hurt Labour. Their support is down 3% on the general election, which is unusual for the Opposition at this stage of a Parliament.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:




    Re 1: I agree that it would have been worth a try. He says he's talked to militant settlers and right-wing Israeli politicians to hear their point of view and argue the case for change, so "never once" probably overstates it, but I think his long history of pro-Palestinian activism has made it easier and perhaps more natural to try to talk to the various wings of the Palestinians. I'm not sure that many Israeli politicians would have been willing to talk to an obscure pro-Palestinian backbencher?

    Re 2: There's the same problem - he's found that even members of the British Jewish establishment (though obviously not everyone) are unwilling to meet him to discuss the anti-semitism issue: their view as I understand it is that he needs to admit error, accept the ILHR with every example without argument and expel some colleagues before they'll even talk to him. Are there Israeli politicians who are keen to meet him?

    In addition, as a Labour member who happens to be really interested in Israel I still don't want him getting into Middle East issues as a priority as LOTO - he's been forced to keep debating them because of all the attacks of his history, but really he should be (and is, though it's not much reported) talking about Brexit, the economy, and so on. He's not (so far as I know) talking seriously to Palestinians either at the moment, and nor should he: there are more pressing issues.

    Thank you for your response.

    I think if he had spoken to militant settlers etc there would have been some evidence. In fact, such evidence as I have found shows him to have been campaigning to prevent the Israeli Foreign Minister from coming here so I remain sceptical that he has ever talked to someone more extreme than that.

    On 2 I would have thought it would make sense to reach out, even if there is the risk of being rebuffed, to show that his words about debate have real meaning. The Israeli government has invited him to visit - this was about a year ago - so the idea that he would have no-one to speak to is nonsense.

    There may well be more pressing issues but foreign policy issues have really animated him all his life, especially the Palestinian cause, the issue of his relations with the Jewish community here keeps coming up and this would be one way for him to how that he understands there are two sides to any issue and a politician aspiring to the highest office should speak to all sides if he genuinely wants to be seen as a man of peace.

    My view is that he is partisan and wants nothing to do with Israel or the Jewish community here. It rather undercuts his claim to be a man searching for ways of achieving peace in that benighted area and does rather leave him exposed to the charge that he is friendly with terrorists and anti-semites for no good purpose. But his choice.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Mr. Meeks, whilst not betting on the market I'm interested to see how it turns out.

    What sort of system does Sweden use? And, if FPTP or similar, how closely (usually) does vote share correlate to seat numbers?

    Pure PR, save that a party must win more than 4% to achieve representation.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    Sky are using their interview with Dame Margaret Hodge as lead story all day and there is no way this is going away anytime soon. The bitterness is now entrenched on both sides and seems irreconcilable

    The government have been given a summer free pass, apart from Boris and the burka, and I am sure they really cannot believe their luck. In just under three weeks Parliament returns and the whole row in labour steps up a notch as labour mps vote on the International recognisition.

    In some ways labour have been fortunate Parliament is in recess as labour mps would have been hounded by the media for their views if they had been around. No such option shortly

    The media always push their interviews - you'll find it's not much reported by rivals. As someone who was very chuffed to have a long (non-partisan) interview on Sky News recently, I regret to say that almost nobody watches it - daily viewing hovers around 2% of the population (https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/weekly-viewing-summary/)

    But I agree with the general point - the issue has been a massive distraction for the Opposition.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited August 2018

    Sky are using their interview with Dame Margaret Hodge as lead story all day and there is no way this is going away anytime soon. The bitterness is now entrenched on both sides and seems irreconcilable

    The government have been given a summer free pass, apart from Boris and the burka, and I am sure they really cannot believe their luck. In just under three weeks Parliament returns and the whole row in labour steps up a notch as labour mps vote on the International recognisition.

    In some ways labour have been fortunate Parliament is in recess as labour mps would have been hounded by the media for their views if they had been around. No such option shortly

    The media always push their interviews - you'll find it's not much reported by rivals. As someone who was very chuffed to have a long (non-partisan) interview on Sky News recently, I regret to say that almost nobody watches it - daily viewing hovers around 2% of the population (https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/weekly-viewing-summary/)

    But I agree with the general point - the issue has been a massive distraction for the Opposition.
    Maybe but it creates its own news cycle as other media organisation report the story but not of course the BBC. Also it has caused a twitter storm making it very much a twitter story
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. F, cheers.

    As an aside, I was watching The Flash on Pick the other day and there was a toast based on the Hebrew word 'kadima' which (I learnt) means 'forward'.

    I do wonder how things would be if Ariel Sharon hadn't had that stroke just as his new Kadima party was poised for a sweeping victory that could've seen Israel's PR system reformed and perhaps given fresh impetus to the peace process.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited August 2018
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. Meeks, whilst not betting on the market I'm interested to see how it turns out.

    What sort of system does Sweden use? And, if FPTP or similar, how closely (usually) does vote share correlate to seat numbers?

    Pure PR, save that a party must win more than 4% to achieve representation.
    Moderates v SD match bet is another one to watch, now looks close and you can get 4/1 on the Moderates. 2/1 would be fair I think.


  • Labour descending into the abyss

    The trouble is that they feel very comfortable in the abyss and most of their supporters are happy for them to be in the abyss. It's only those of us looking in from the outside who are disgusted.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749



    Labour descending into the abyss

    The trouble is that they feel very comfortable in the abyss and most of their supporters are happy for them to be in the abyss. It's only those of us looking in from the outside who are disgusted.

    Not much sign of change in a year:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1030427569315827713?s=19
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    A little light reading coming next week (I gather) for those of us interested in Brexit:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/a-new-leak-reveals-84-areas-of-british-life-the-uk?utm_term=.egnGZGywE#.bmnzpzEmW
  • Foxy said:



    Labour descending into the abyss

    The trouble is that they feel very comfortable in the abyss and most of their supporters are happy for them to be in the abyss. It's only those of us looking in from the outside who are disgusted.

    Not much sign of change in a year:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1030427569315827713?s=19
    Brexit dominates but this is a drip drip of poison
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Chris - @fatshez: Just read Mendoza's barmy and antisemitic rant about Hodge. Starting to think @DPJHodges has a point about the Corbynistas being genuinely apprehensive about what happens when the Labour party splits.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited August 2018
    Foxy said:



    Labour descending into the abyss

    The trouble is that they feel very comfortable in the abyss and most of their supporters are happy for them to be in the abyss. It's only those of us looking in from the outside who are disgusted.

    Not much sign of change in a year:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1030427569315827713?s=19
    Most people aren't even aware of this story, and those that are, don't really care. Politicians are not held in high regard; only the reasons differ. Here a liar, here a hypocrite, oh apparently this one is an anti-semite. Whatevs. Jobs, housing, the NHS (not necessarily in that order) have salience. Twitter wars, no matter how fierce, do not.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    New thread!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Foxy said:



    Labour descending into the abyss

    The trouble is that they feel very comfortable in the abyss and most of their supporters are happy for them to be in the abyss. It's only those of us looking in from the outside who are disgusted.

    Not much sign of change in a year:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1030427569315827713?s=19
    Brexit dominates but this is a drip drip of poison
    I don't believe Brexit is very salient with regard to voting behaviour - though London might be an exception to that. Attitudes to Corbyn,however, have had a much greater effect - though I suspect that this is now baked into the polling data we are seeing. Unlikely - in my view - that the latest controversy will make much difference at all.
This discussion has been closed.