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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Comedy Central’s answer to the Vote Leave Brexit bus

A key part in Leave’s narrow victory at the referendum was its success in portraying negative comments about leaving the EU as “Project Fear”. That was two and a quarter years ago and now the Brexit date of March 29 2019 is not that far off.

Read the full story here

Pulpstar

People who swap heads about really have too much time on their hands.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1029703497216868352

Nigelb

(OT, but) interesting in the run up to November...

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/14/white-house-staff-omarosa-tapes-777490
Omarosa Manigault Newman’s slow release of secretly taped conversations from inside the Trump campaign and White House is having the same effect on staffers as the daily dumps from WikiLeaks had on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, when chairman John Podesta’s emails were trickled out during the final stretch of the race.
“People are terrified,” one former Trump aide said of the tapes. “Absolutely terrified.”

Pulpstar

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1029703497216868352

Actually you may well be able to do a 5* Hotel for that sort of money in Tunisia if he was on his own. Just checked... back in 2012 was £701 for 10 nights for me and my other half at a 4*.

brendan16

Nigelb said:

(OT, but) interesting in the run up to November...

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/14/white-house-staff-omarosa-tapes-777490
Omarosa Manigault Newman’s slow release of secretly taped conversations from inside the Trump campaign and White House is having the same effect on staffers as the daily dumps from WikiLeaks had on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, when chairman John Podesta’s emails were trickled out during the final stretch of the race.
“People are terrified,” one former Trump aide said of the tapes. “Absolutely terrified.”

They are probably more terrified of encountering Omarosa again! Her performances in season 1 of the US Apprentice and the later Celebrity versions were epic - especially her feud with Piers Morgan!

Philip_Thompson

Pulpstar said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1029703497216868352

Actually you may well be able to do a 5* Hotel for that sort of money in Tunisia if he was on his own. Just checked... back in 2012 was £701 for 10 nights for me and my other half at a 4*.

Including flights etc?

Nigelb

Pulpstar said:

People who swap heads about really have too much time on their hands.

Quite funny, though.
The Corbyn bit, and May in the lifeboat, almost looked real.

Pulpstar

Philip_Thompson said:

Pulpstar said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1029703497216868352

Actually you may well be able to do a 5* Hotel for that sort of money in Tunisia if he was on his own. Just checked... back in 2012 was £701 for 10 nights for me and my other half at a 4*.

Including flights etc?

Yes. Excluding excursions to PLO memorials though.

Philip_Thompson

Didn't Peter Robinson just get sanctioned and lose his MP voting privileges for a month because he failed to declare a foreign state paying for his trip then backing their interests in Parliament without declaring it?

What's the difference between what Robinson has done and what Corbyn has done?

Scott_P

"What's the difference between what Robinson has done and what Corbyn has done?

Got caught?

tpfkar

Very good

Seems to me that leavers are in trouble on 3 fronts: losing the argument on nothing to fear from leaving, not seeing any benefits for decades, and legality of the referendum. Easy to fight on one or two fronts but three? notable how the only response on all 3 is now 'will of the people' rather than fighting on the arguments. Retreat, no?

However I wouldn't describe the May position as BINO - EEA membership perhaps would be but this is still far from it. It'll be much more expensive in both cash and practical terms as it will cut us off from EU institutions and programmes. If May manages to package this as soft Brexit (which is where Labour are heading, not the Tories) then that's a mighty smart re-brand.

williamglenn

Philip_Thompson said:

Didn't Peter Robinson just get sanctioned and lose his MP voting privileges for a month because he failed to declare a foreign state paying for his trip then backing their interests in Parliament without declaring it?

What's the difference between what Robinson has done and what Corbyn has done?

You mean Ian Paisley?

John_M

tpfkar said:

Very good

Seems to me that leavers are in trouble on 3 fronts: losing the argument on nothing to fear from leaving, not seeing any benefits for decades, and legality of the referendum. Easy to fight on one or two fronts but three? notable how the only response on all 3 is now 'will of the people' rather than fighting on the arguments. Retreat, no?

However I wouldn't describe the May position as BINO - EEA membership perhaps would be but this is still far from it. It'll be much more expensive in both cash and practical terms as it will cut us off from EU institutions and programmes. If May manages to package this as soft Brexit (which is where Labour are heading, not the Tories) then that's a mighty smart re-brand.

I think you must be referring to social media wars. Other than the odd comment on here, I'm not fighting anything - there's nothing to fight. We don't know what May's deal will look like after Salzburg, we have no idea what is, in practice, going to happen to the economy as a result of that deal and so forth. Similarly, how our relationship with the rEU will evolve in the future is almost entirely murky.

My fight, such as it is, will take place via the ballot box. If we have a second referendum, I'll vote to Leave and if we have a GE, I'll vote for a Brexit party. I may lose either/both. Let's see .

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

DavidL

If only remainers had brought that wit and zest to their campaigning before the vote, eh?

Ah well, we'll just have to manage.

williamglenn

John_M said:

tpfkar said:

Very good

Seems to me that leavers are in trouble on 3 fronts: losing the argument on nothing to fear from leaving, not seeing any benefits for decades, and legality of the referendum. Easy to fight on one or two fronts but three? notable how the only response on all 3 is now 'will of the people' rather than fighting on the arguments. Retreat, no?

However I wouldn't describe the May position as BINO - EEA membership perhaps would be but this is still far from it. It'll be much more expensive in both cash and practical terms as it will cut us off from EU institutions and programmes. If May manages to package this as soft Brexit (which is where Labour are heading, not the Tories) then that's a mighty smart re-brand.

I think you must be referring to social media wars. Other than the odd comment on here, I'm not fighting anything - there's nothing to fight. We don't know what May's deal will look like after Salzburg, we have no idea what is, in practice, going to happen to the economy as a result of that deal and so forth. Similarly, how our relationship with the rEU will evolve in the future is almost entirely murky.

My fight, such as it is, will take place via the ballot box. If we have a second referendum, I'll vote to Leave and if we have a GE, I'll vote for a Brexit party. I may lose either/both. Let's see .

You’re merely a Leave voter though. Someone who delivered your instructions and then sat back to see what happens. There are others out there engaged in political trench warfare over the issue.

RightChuck

On topic, I don't see how it's going to annoy anybody when it's just more of the same, and when the signs are that in traditional EU fashion minds are beginning to focus as deadlines approach and the grown-ups try to figure out how best to limit the damage.

TOPPING

RightChuck said:

On topic, I don't see how it's going to annoy anybody when it's just more of the same, and when the signs are that in traditional EU fashion minds are beginning to focus as deadlines approach and the grown-ups try to figure out how best to limit the damage.

The mother of all not going to be able to kick the can down the road any more issues.

Unless we, er, kick the can down the road extend Article 50.

stodge

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

John_M

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

tpfkar said:

Very good

Seems to me that leavers are in trouble on 3 fronts: losing the argument on nothing to fear from leaving, not seeing any benefits for decades, and legality of the referendum. Easy to fight on one or two fronts but three? notable how the only response on all 3 is now 'will of the people' rather than fighting on the arguments. Retreat, no?

However I wouldn't describe the May position as BINO - EEA membership perhaps would be but this is still far from it. It'll be much more expensive in both cash and practical terms as it will cut us off from EU institutions and programmes. If May manages to package this as soft Brexit (which is where Labour are heading, not the Tories) then that's a mighty smart re-brand.

I think you must be referring to social media wars. Other than the odd comment on here, I'm not fighting anything - there's nothing to fight. We don't know what May's deal will look like after Salzburg, we have no idea what is, in practice, going to happen to the economy as a result of that deal and so forth. Similarly, how our relationship with the rEU will evolve in the future is almost entirely murky.

My fight, such as it is, will take place via the ballot box. If we have a second referendum, I'll vote to Leave and if we have a GE, I'll vote for a Brexit party. I may lose either/both. Let's see .

You’re merely a Leave voter though. Someone who delivered your instructions and then sat back to see what happens. There are others out there engaged in political trench warfare over the issue.

I'm aware, my timeline is flooded with Ultras on both sides firing broadsides at each other. I'm simply composing myself with patience and waiting to see what happens.

williamglenn

TOPPING said:

RightChuck said:

On topic, I don't see how it's going to annoy anybody when it's just more of the same, and when the signs are that in traditional EU fashion minds are beginning to focus as deadlines approach and the grown-ups try to figure out how best to limit the damage.

The mother of all not going to be able to kick the can down the road any more issues.

Unless we, er, kick the can down the road extend Article 50.

Bloodbath for UKIP in the 2019 European elections if that happens.

brendan16

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

tpfkar said:

Very good

Seems to me that leavers are in trouble on 3 fronts: losing the argument on nothing to fear from leaving, not seeing any benefits for decades, and legality of the referendum. Easy to fight on one or two fronts but three? notable how the only response on all 3 is now 'will of the people' rather than fighting on the arguments. Retreat, no?

However I wouldn't describe the May position as BINO - EEA membership perhaps would be but this is still far from it. It'll be much more expensive in both cash and practical terms as it will cut us off from EU institutions and programmes. If May manages to package this as soft Brexit (which is where Labour are heading, not the Tories) then that's a mighty smart re-brand.

I think you must be referring to social media wars. Other than the odd comment on here, I'm not fighting anything - there's nothing to fight. We don't know what May's deal will look like after Salzburg, we have no idea what is, in practice, going to happen to the economy as a result of that deal and so forth. Similarly, how our relationship with the rEU will evolve in the future is almost entirely murky.

My fight, such as it is, will take place via the ballot box. If we have a second referendum, I'll vote to Leave and if we have a GE, I'll vote for a Brexit party. I may lose either/both. Let's see .

You’re merely a Leave voter though. Someone who delivered your instructions and then sat back to see what happens. There are others out there engaged in political trench warfare over the issue.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Has he asked them all personally?

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

William_H

stodge said:

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

The rail fare increase is based on the older measure of inflation, RPI, not the now generally favoured CPI which is lower.

DavidL

Here we go again: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-45193514

williamglenn

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1029711809895456769

Recidivist

brendan16 said:

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

tpfkar said:

Very good

Seems to me that leavers are in trouble on 3 fronts: losing the argument on nothing to fear from leaving, not seeing any benefits for decades, and legality of the referendum. Easy to fight on one or two fronts but three? notable how the only response on all 3 is now 'will of the people' rather than fighting on the arguments. Retreat, no?

However I wouldn't describe the May position as BINO - EEA membership perhaps would be but this is still far from it. It'll be much more expensive in both cash and practical terms as it will cut us off from EU institutions and programmes. If May manages to package this as soft Brexit (which is where Labour are heading, not the Tories) then that's a mighty smart re-brand.

I think you must be referring to social media wars. Other than the odd comment on here, I'm not fighting anything - there's nothing to fight. We don't know what May's deal will look like after Salzburg, we have no idea what is, in practice, going to happen to the economy as a result of that deal and so forth. Similarly, how our relationship with the rEU will evolve in the future is almost entirely murky.

My fight, such as it is, will take place via the ballot box. If we have a second referendum, I'll vote to Leave and if we have a GE, I'll vote for a Brexit party. I may lose either/both. Let's see .

You’re merely a Leave voter though. Someone who delivered your instructions and then sat back to see what happens. There are others out there engaged in political trench warfare over the issue.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Has he asked them all personally?

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

So if referendum polls are that inaccurate we might already have a remain win of 10% on the ground?

Pulpstar

Recidivist said:

brendan16 said:

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

tpfkar said:

Very good

Seems to me that leavers are in trouble on 3 fronts: losing the argument on nothing to fear from leaving, not seeing any benefits for decades, and legality of the referendum. Easy to fight on one or two fronts but three? notable how the only response on all 3 is now 'will of the people' rather than fighting on the arguments. Retreat, no?

However I wouldn't describe the May position as BINO - EEA membership perhaps would be but this is still far from it. It'll be much more expensive in both cash and practical terms as it will cut us off from EU institutions and programmes. If May manages to package this as soft Brexit (which is where Labour are heading, not the Tories) then that's a mighty smart re-brand.

I think you must be referring to social media wars. Other than the odd comment on here, I'm not fighting anything - there's nothing to fight. We don't know what May's deal will look like after Salzburg, we have no idea what is, in practice, going to happen to the economy as a result of that deal and so forth. Similarly, how our relationship with the rEU will evolve in the future is almost entirely murky.

My fight, such as it is, will take place via the ballot box. If we have a second referendum, I'll vote to Leave and if we have a GE, I'll vote for a Brexit party. I may lose either/both. Let's see .

You’re merely a Leave voter though. Someone who delivered your instructions and then sat back to see what happens. There are others out there engaged in political trench warfare over the issue.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Has he asked them all personally?

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

So if referendum polls are that inaccurate we might already have a remain win of 10% on the ground?

Tricky to tell, remain would be odds on once again but we can't rule out a second leave win.

John_M

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Disappointingly selective of you William. The majority of the polls in the last week before the referendum had Remain winning, albeit by a small margin (apart from Populus, who I am delighted to say had Remain ahead by 10%, oh dear).

TGOHF

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

It's not rocket science - General elections are every 5 years, referendums are once in a generation (35-40 years).

The electorate gives an opinion - government acts on it.

ReggieCide

"Nobody appears to know what is going to happen and many are fearful of uncertainty" - fearful of uncertainty in this context surely means fearful of life. Nuff said.

DecrepitJohnL

On topic, yes it will be BINO but the catch is that there is still no single agreed model of BINO just as there is no single model of Brexit shared by the ERG and other hard-core leavers.

So whatever happens, there will be plenty of recriminations and even more told-you-so's.

williamglenn

Pulpstar said:

Recidivist said:

brendan16 said:

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

tpfkar said:

Very good

Seems to me that leavers are in trouble on 3 fronts: losing the argument on nothing to fear from leaving, not seeing any benefits for decades, and legality of the referendum. Easy to fight on one or two fronts but three? notable how the only response on all 3 is now 'will of the people' rather than fighting on the arguments. Retreat, no?

However I wouldn't describe the May position as BINO - EEA membership perhaps would be but this is still far from it. It'll be much more expensive in both cash and practical terms as it will cut us off from EU institutions and programmes. If May manages to package this as soft Brexit (which is where Labour are heading, not the Tories) then that's a mighty smart re-brand.

I think you must be referring to social media wars. Other than the odd comment on here, I'm not fighting anything - there's nothing to fight. We don't know what May's deal will look like after Salzburg, we have no idea what is, in practice, going to happen to the economy as a result of that deal and so forth. Similarly, how our relationship with the rEU will evolve in the future is almost entirely murky.

My fight, such as it is, will take place via the ballot box. If we have a second referendum, I'll vote to Leave and if we have a GE, I'll vote for a Brexit party. I may lose either/both. Let's see .

You’re merely a Leave voter though. Someone who delivered your instructions and then sat back to see what happens. There are others out there engaged in political trench warfare over the issue.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Has he asked them all personally?

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

So if referendum polls are that inaccurate we might already have a remain win of 10% on the ground?

Tricky to tell, remain would be odds on once again but we can't rule out a second leave win.

If the referendum were a straight Leave/Remain and Leave meant a "vassal state" transition towards a Chequers-like deal that could still be diluted, which way would Boris Johnson jump?

The dynamics would be completely different.

AlastairMeeks

ReggieCide said:

"Nobody appears to know what is going to happen and many are fearful of uncertainty" - fearful of uncertainty in this context surely means fearful of life. Nuff said.

Brexit is life? Good grief, the obsession of Leavers reaches new heights.

DavidL

stodge said:

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

The way rail fares are messed about with is a disgrace. If I was confident I was getting a fair (no pun intended) and reliable price for a journey I would use a lot more trains than I do. But the bottom line is that net taxpayer subsidies for the network amount to about £4bn a year. That is £4bn taken from all taxpayers and given to those who use the railways, many of whom are not even taxpayers.

Is this a good investment? Actually, I would say yes because the alternative is even more clogged roads or reduced economic activity but I can understand the desire to bring what is paid and what is spent into closer balance.

What is depressing is that Chris Grayling has been left in charge of this. That is never going to go well. His continued existence at such a high level of UK politics is a genuine mystery to me.

TGOHF

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1029711809895456769

Seems obvious to everyone except Labour MPs. Why wont they act ?

williamglenn

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Disappointingly selective of you William. The majority of the polls in the last week before the referendum had Remain winning, albeit by a small margin (apart from Populus, who I am delighted to say had Remain ahead by 10%, oh dear).

We're not having a referendum next weekend though. If you go back further to 2013, Leave had consistent big leads. Perhaps Euroscepticism was actually in long-term secular decline and that process was just interrupted by the migration crisis and referendum campaign.

Anazina

DavidL said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

The way rail fares are messed about with is a disgrace. If I was confident I was getting a fair (no pun intended) and reliable price for a journey I would use a lot more trains than I do. But the bottom line is that net taxpayer subsidies for the network amount to about £4bn a year. That is £4bn taken from all taxpayers and given to those who use the railways, many of whom are not even taxpayers.

Is this a good investment? Actually, I would say yes because the alternative is even more clogged roads or reduced economic activity but I can understand the desire to bring what is paid and what is spent into closer balance.

What is depressing is that Chris Grayling has been left in charge of this. That is never going to go well. His continued existence at such a high level of UK politics is a genuine mystery to me.

Nationalise it. At least that way the public have got one arse to kick.

Pulpstar

DavidL said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

The way rail fares are messed about with is a disgrace. If I was confident I was getting a fair (no pun intended) and reliable price for a journey I would use a lot more trains than I do. But the bottom line is that net taxpayer subsidies for the network amount to about £4bn a year. That is £4bn taken from all taxpayers and given to those who use the railways, many of whom are not even taxpayers.

Is this a good investment? Actually, I would say yes because the alternative is even more clogged roads or reduced economic activity but I can understand the desire to bring what is paid and what is spent into closer balance.

What is depressing is that Chris Grayling has been left in charge of this. That is never going to go well. His continued existence at such a high level of UK politics is a genuine mystery to me.

Can someone clarify Grayling's comments about potentially changing the fare increase to CPI ? Is that within his power as SoS for transport, and if not his - whose power is it in ?

"Suggestion" sounded like an odd word to me (Based upon the powers I think he has in this area) but perhaps it's correct.

TGOHF

Rail fares should be linked to staff pay.

Would solve a couple of issues.

Philip_Thompson

stodge said:

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

Petrol seems to be going up by far more than 3.2% at the minute so rail users are the fortunate ones.

sarissa

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Brown is yesterday's man, well into his anecdotage.

Jonathan

Funny video. Thanks for sharing.

Love the Corbyn bit.

sarissa

TGOHF said:

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

It's not rocket science - General elections are every 5 years, referendums are once in a generation (35-40 years).

The electorate gives an opinion - government acts on it.

What happened to "representatives, not delegates"?

notme

sarissa said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Brown is yesterday's man, well into his anecdotage.

If only he had held a refendum on the Lisbon Treaty we wouldn’t be here now with Brexit.

Brom

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Disappointingly selective of you William. The majority of the polls in the last week before the referendum had Remain winning, albeit by a small margin (apart from Populus, who I am delighted to say had Remain ahead by 10%, oh dear).

We're not having a referendum next weekend though. If you go back further to 2013, Leave had consistent big leads. Perhaps Euroscepticism was actually in long-term secular decline and that process was just interrupted by the migration crisis and referendum campaign.

Let's be honest I doubt we'll see another referendum for a long, long time. If the people's vote campaign can only muster a smattering of interest on social media then clearly the public is very tired of the idea.

John_M

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Disappointingly selective of you William. The majority of the polls in the last week before the referendum had Remain winning, albeit by a small margin (apart from Populus, who I am delighted to say had Remain ahead by 10%, oh dear).

We're not having a referendum next weekend though. If you go back further to 2013, Leave had consistent big leads. Perhaps Euroscepticism was actually in long-term secular decline and that process was just interrupted by the migration crisis and referendum campaign.

I think ultimately my view is fairly simple: wake me up when we're actually having a People's Vote or Final Choice or whatever fucking Orwellian term we decide to use for a second referendum. Then we'll all do our democratic duty and, presumably, whoever wins, there'll be agitation for another one.

ReggieCide

AlastairMeeks said:

ReggieCide said:

"Nobody appears to know what is going to happen and many are fearful of uncertainty" - fearful of uncertainty in this context surely means fearful of life. Nuff said.

Brexit is life? Good grief, the obsession of Leavers reaches new heights.

I would have thought that you would be bright enough to know that that is not what I said but .....

notme

Anazina said:

DavidL said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

The way rail fares are messed about with is a disgrace. If I was confident I was getting a fair (no pun intended) and reliable price for a journey I would use a lot more trains than I do. But the bottom line is that net taxpayer subsidies for the network amount to about £4bn a year. That is £4bn taken from all taxpayers and given to those who use the railways, many of whom are not even taxpayers.

Is this a good investment? Actually, I would say yes because the alternative is even more clogged roads or reduced economic activity but I can understand the desire to bring what is paid and what is spent into closer balance.

What is depressing is that Chris Grayling has been left in charge of this. That is never going to go well. His continued existence at such a high level of UK politics is a genuine mystery to me.

Nationalise it. At least that way the public have got one arse to kick.

The infrastructure is already nationalised, and what we are discussing here are the regulated fairs. The ones that the government already control the price of.... not sure what nationalisation would achieve.

williamglenn

Brom said:

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Disappointingly selective of you William. The majority of the polls in the last week before the referendum had Remain winning, albeit by a small margin (apart from Populus, who I am delighted to say had Remain ahead by 10%, oh dear).

We're not having a referendum next weekend though. If you go back further to 2013, Leave had consistent big leads. Perhaps Euroscepticism was actually in long-term secular decline and that process was just interrupted by the migration crisis and referendum campaign.

Let's be honest I doubt we'll see another referendum for a long, long time. If the people's vote campaign can only muster a smattering of interest on social media then clearly the public is very tired of the idea.

The first one certainly didn't come about because the public were clamouring for it...

The people's vote campaign has already shown the ability to mobilise hundreds of thousands of people to march against Brexit. No anti-EU campaign has ever come close to that.

Richard_Nabavi

What might have been is an abstraction
Remaining a perpetual possibility
Only in a world of speculation.
What might have been and what has been
Point to one end, which is always present.
Footfalls echo in the memory
Down the passage which we did not take
Towards the door we never opened
Into the rose-garden

But we did open it, although it's not clear if there's a rose garden or a waste land behind it, or maybe just another garden much like the one we left. Either way, we can't go back; the option of pretending the referendum never happened, that Cameron is still PM, Osborne is still Chancellor, Corbyn is still a back-bencher, and we have embraced the settlement which Cameron had negotiated, doesn't exist. Almost certainly, even the pre-Cameron position of opt-outs and rebates would not be available. Why should it be? Our EU friends quite sensibly didn't much trust our commitment to The Project then; they are hardly going to be more trusting now.

TGOHF

sarissa said:

TGOHF said:

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

It's not rocket science - General elections are every 5 years, referendums are once in a generation (35-40 years).

The electorate gives an opinion - government acts on it.

What happened to "representatives, not delegates"?

Yes - the government is free to ignore the referendum - doesn't need to hold another one.

oxfordsimon

DavidL said:

Here we go again: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-45193514

Such things seem to pass without comment these days. Which is a terribly sad state of affairs.

notme

AlastairMeeks said:

ReggieCide said:

"Nobody appears to know what is going to happen and many are fearful of uncertainty" - fearful of uncertainty in this context surely means fearful of life. Nuff said.

Brexit is life? Good grief, the obsession of Leavers reaches new heights.

I think uncertainty is a greater risk than what we eventually end up with. Increased risk requires an increase in return assuming everything else is equal. We seem to have maximum instability at the moment. But since expectations are so low, in terms of politics, May could come through as a successful Brexit if we aren’t all lined up for emergency rations of spam.

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

What might have been is an abstraction
Remaining a perpetual possibility
Only in a world of speculation.
What might have been and what has been
Point to one end, which is always present.
Footfalls echo in the memory
Down the passage which we did not take
Towards the door we never opened
Into the rose-garden

But we did open it, although it's not clear if there's a rose garden or a waste land behind it, or maybe just another garden much like the one we left. Either way, we can't go back; the option of pretending the referendum never happened, that Cameron is still PM, Osborne is still Chancellor, Corbyn is still a back-bencher, and we have embraced the settlement which Cameron had negotiated, doesn't exist. Almost certainly, even the pre-Cameron position of opt-outs and rebates would not be available. Why should it be? Our EU friends quite sensibly didn't much trust our commitment to The Project then; they are hardly going to be more trusting now.

As you are a good Conservative, I'm astonished that your foray into verse on this subject didn't involve blue remembered hills.

Anazina

notme said:

sarissa said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Brown is yesterday's man, well into his anecdotage.

If only he had held a refendum on the Lisbon Treaty we wouldn’t be here now with Brexit.

Thread Goodwined at 1412hrs.

Leaving is Remainers' fault.

OldKingCole

williamglenn said:

Brom said:

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Disappointingly selective of you William. The majority of the polls in the last week before the referendum had Remain winning, albeit by a small margin (apart from Populus, who I am delighted to say had Remain ahead by 10%, oh dear).

We're not having a referendum next weekend though. If you go back further to 2013, Leave had consistent big leads. Perhaps Euroscepticism was actually in long-term secular decline and that process was just interrupted by the migration crisis and referendum campaign.

Let's be honest I doubt we'll see another referendum for a long, long time. If the people's vote campaign can only muster a smattering of interest on social media then clearly the public is very tired of the idea.

The first one certainly didn't come about because the public were clamouring for it...

The people's vote campaign has already shown the ability to mobilise hundreds of thousands of people to march against Brexit. No anti-EU campaign has ever come close to that.

UKIP got a lot of votes.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1029717125831770113

John_M

williamglenn said:

Brom said:

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Disappointingly selective of you William. The majority of the polls in the last week before the referendum had Remain winning, albeit by a small margin (apart from Populus, who I am delighted to say had Remain ahead by 10%, oh dear).

We're not having a referendum next weekend though. If you go back further to 2013, Leave had consistent big leads. Perhaps Euroscepticism was actually in long-term secular decline and that process was just interrupted by the migration crisis and referendum campaign.

Let's be honest I doubt we'll see another referendum for a long, long time. If the people's vote campaign can only muster a smattering of interest on social media then clearly the public is very tired of the idea.

The first one certainly didn't come about because the public were clamouring for it...

The people's vote campaign has already shown the ability to mobilise hundreds of thousands of people to march against Brexit. No anti-EU campaign has ever come close to that.

The countryside alliance had a 300,000 strong march against fox hunting. It's still banned.

DavidL

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

The way rail fares are messed about with is a disgrace. If I was confident I was getting a fair (no pun intended) and reliable price for a journey I would use a lot more trains than I do. But the bottom line is that net taxpayer subsidies for the network amount to about £4bn a year. That is £4bn taken from all taxpayers and given to those who use the railways, many of whom are not even taxpayers.

Is this a good investment? Actually, I would say yes because the alternative is even more clogged roads or reduced economic activity but I can understand the desire to bring what is paid and what is spent into closer balance.

What is depressing is that Chris Grayling has been left in charge of this. That is never going to go well. His continued existence at such a high level of UK politics is a genuine mystery to me.

Can someone clarify Grayling's comments about potentially changing the fare increase to CPI ? Is that within his power as SoS for transport, and if not his - whose power is it in ?

"Suggestion" sounded like an odd word to me (Based upon the powers I think he has in this area) but perhaps it's correct.

It looks horribly and ridiculously complicated. This is the January 2017 explanation. http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/24518/rail-fares-index-january-2017.pdf
If you can make sense of it (LENNON?? I mean, really?) please enlighten the rest of us.

Grayling has clearly got hold of the 1 bit he could understand which was the use of RPI instead of CPI.

AlastairMeeks

Meanwhile, nothing in this article is the least bit perturbing:

https://www.ft.com/content/a9a0bb36-a061-11e8-85da-eeb7a9ce36e4

Richard_Nabavi

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

What might have been is an abstraction
Remaining a perpetual possibility
Only in a world of speculation.
What might have been and what has been
Point to one end, which is always present.
Footfalls echo in the memory
Down the passage which we did not take
Towards the door we never opened
Into the rose-garden

But we did open it, although it's not clear if there's a rose garden or a waste land behind it, or maybe just another garden much like the one we left. Either way, we can't go back; the option of pretending the referendum never happened, that Cameron is still PM, Osborne is still Chancellor, Corbyn is still a back-bencher, and we have embraced the settlement which Cameron had negotiated, doesn't exist. Almost certainly, even the pre-Cameron position of opt-outs and rebates would not be available. Why should it be? Our EU friends quite sensibly didn't much trust our commitment to The Project then; they are hardly going to be more trusting now.

As you are a good Conservative, I'm astonished that your foray into verse on this subject didn't involve blue remembered hills.

I'm not that sort of good Conservative!

ReggieCide

Philip_Thompson said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

Petrol seems to be going up by far more than 3.2% at the minute so rail users are the fortunate ones.

Rail users are effectively hugely subsidised by non rail users. Guess the user/ non user status of poster by contribution. Easy peasy.

notme

I’m seeing a increased derogatory use of BINO from remainers at the moment. I can understand it from kippers, anything that involves us participating in anyway in a future relationship with the EU is seen as betrayal. But the chequers deal is very very far from BINO. BINO would be staying in single market and customs union, and maintaining all the obligations that come with it. A position I favour. But that isn’t what May is proposing. It may not be hard Brexit, but it’s a pretty clear leave. So why are remainers desperately trying to undermine what they see (incorrectly) as BINO?

Anazina

notme said:

Anazina said:

DavidL said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

The way rail fares are messed about with is a disgrace. If I was confident I was getting a fair (no pun intended) and reliable price for a journey I would use a lot more trains than I do. But the bottom line is that net taxpayer subsidies for the network amount to about £4bn a year. That is £4bn taken from all taxpayers and given to those who use the railways, many of whom are not even taxpayers.

Is this a good investment? Actually, I would say yes because the alternative is even more clogged roads or reduced economic activity but I can understand the desire to bring what is paid and what is spent into closer balance.

What is depressing is that Chris Grayling has been left in charge of this. That is never going to go well. His continued existence at such a high level of UK politics is a genuine mystery to me.

Nationalise it. At least that way the public have got one arse to kick.

The infrastructure is already nationalised, and what we are discussing here are the regulated fairs. The ones that the government already control the price of.... not sure what nationalisation would achieve.

The blame and counter-blame for fare rises, public subsidies, engineering works, late trains, shit on the seats, overcrowding – you name it – will continue forever and a day while-ever some parts of the network remain in the private sector.

Slackbladder

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1029717125831770113

He can't f**king help it can he. He's more than happy bending over backwards for anything palestianian but won't do anything ever for anything Israeli, even it it's not linked with the state of Israel.

It's clear his issue isn't just with the Isreali stae, it's with the Israeli people as well, including its victims of terror. Utterly one-sided.

Anazina

ReggieCide said:

Philip_Thompson said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

Petrol seems to be going up by far more than 3.2% at the minute so rail users are the fortunate ones.

Rail users are effectively hugely subsidised by non rail users. Guess the user/ non user status of poster by contribution. Easy peasy.

Running a railway is a cost of running a successful economy. Would you charge hospital users on a pay-as-you-go basis? School users?

ReggieCide

notme said:

Anazina said:

DavidL said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

The way rail fares are messed about with is a disgrace. If I was confident I was getting a fair (no pun intended) and reliable price for a journey I would use a lot more trains than I do. But the bottom line is that net taxpayer subsidies for the network amount to about £4bn a year. That is £4bn taken from all taxpayers and given to those who use the railways, many of whom are not even taxpayers.

Is this a good investment? Actually, I would say yes because the alternative is even more clogged roads or reduced economic activity but I can understand the desire to bring what is paid and what is spent into closer balance.

What is depressing is that Chris Grayling has been left in charge of this. That is never going to go well. His continued existence at such a high level of UK politics is a genuine mystery to me.

Nationalise it. At least that way the public have got one arse to kick.

The infrastructure is already nationalised, and what we are discussing here are the regulated fairs. The ones that the government already control the price of.... not sure what nationalisation would achieve.

What British Rail was like - remember?

notme

Anazina said:

notme said:

Anazina said:

DavidL said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

The way rail fares are messed about with is a disgrace. If I was confident I was getting a fair (no pun intended) and reliable price for a journey I would use a lot more trains than I do. But the bottom line is that net taxpayer subsidies for the network amount to about £4bn a year. That is £4bn taken from all taxpayers and given to those who use the railways, many of whom are not even taxpayers.

Is this a good investment? Actually, I would say yes because the alternative is even more clogged roads or reduced economic activity but I can understand the desire to bring what is paid and what is spent into closer balance.

What is depressing is that Chris Grayling has been left in charge of this. That is never going to go well. His continued existence at such a high level of UK politics is a genuine mystery to me.

Nationalise it. At least that way the public have got one arse to kick.

The infrastructure is already nationalised, and what we are discussing here are the regulated fairs. The ones that the government already control the price of.... not sure what nationalisation would achieve.

The blame and counter-blame for fare rises, public subsidies, engineering works, late trains, shit on the seats, overcrowding – you name it – will continue forever and a day while-ever some parts of the network remain in the private sector.

Let’s take it back to the good old days... you cannot have the whole of the infrastructure in public hands if you wish to abide by single market rules, which of course is why Corbyn wants out.

OldKingCole

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1029711809895456769

Sorry, don’t recognise him. However, Olympians have gone on to be politicians, so he might just have an axe to grind.

John_M

notme said:

I’m seeing a increased derogatory use of BINO from remainers at the moment. I can understand it from kippers, anything that involves us participating in anyway in a future relationship with the EU is seen as betrayal. But the chequers deal is very very far from BINO. BINO would be staying in single market and customs union, and maintaining all the obligations that come with it. A position I favour. But that isn’t what May is proposing. It may not be hard Brexit, but it’s a pretty clear leave. So why are remainers desperately trying to undermine what they see (incorrectly) as BINO?

It's a psychological crutch so they can pretend they didn't lose .

BINO, for me, would be remaining part of the treaty structures that require 'ever closer union'. I really wouldn't have minded EFTA/EEA, because, as I've said many times, our relationship with the EU will evolve over decades. It's a process, not an event.

Philip_Thompson

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Didn't Peter Robinson just get sanctioned and lose his MP voting privileges for a month because he failed to declare a foreign state paying for his trip then backing their interests in Parliament without declaring it?

What's the difference between what Robinson has done and what Corbyn has done?

You mean Ian Paisley?

Yes I do indeed. Went off memory sorry.

What's the difference between Corbyn and Paisley?

notme

Anazina said:

notme said:

sarissa said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Brown is yesterday's man, well into his anecdotage.

If only he had held a refendum on the Lisbon Treaty we wouldn’t be here now with Brexit.

Thread Goodwined at 1412hrs.

Leaving is Remainers' fault.

Pretty much all the pressures associated with the decision to have an in out referendum can be sourced back to the decision to not hold one on the Lisbon Treaty.

John_M

notme said:

Anazina said:

notme said:

sarissa said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Brown is yesterday's man, well into his anecdotage.

If only he had held a refendum on the Lisbon Treaty we wouldn’t be here now with Brexit.

Thread Goodwined at 1412hrs.

Leaving is Remainers' fault.

Pretty much all the pressures associated with the decision to have an in out referendum can be sourced back to the decision to not hold one on the Lisbon Treaty.

We should remember that the Lisbon Treaty was merely a thinly rebadged European constitution.

TOPPING

DavidL said:

Here we go again: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-45193514

You mean priests in the US? Yep can't believe we're here again.

Anazina

ReggieCide said:

notme said:

Anazina said:

DavidL said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

The way rail fares are messed about with is a disgrace. If I was confident I was getting a fair (no pun intended) and reliable price for a journey I would use a lot more trains than I do. But the bottom line is that net taxpayer subsidies for the network amount to about £4bn a year. That is £4bn taken from all taxpayers and given to those who use the railways, many of whom are not even taxpayers.

Is this a good investment? Actually, I would say yes because the alternative is even more clogged roads or reduced economic activity but I can understand the desire to bring what is paid and what is spent into closer balance.

What is depressing is that Chris Grayling has been left in charge of this. That is never going to go well. His continued existence at such a high level of UK politics is a genuine mystery to me.

Nationalise it. At least that way the public have got one arse to kick.

The infrastructure is already nationalised, and what we are discussing here are the regulated fairs. The ones that the government already control the price of.... not sure what nationalisation would achieve.

What British Rail was like - remember?

BR was most efficient railway in Europe on its point of privatisation. Given that the most popular railway in the UK is already nationalised, and the East Coast Mainline was a success as public railway (which it now is again), I'm not sure why people think we'd have to recreate British Rail anyway.

ReggieCide

oxfordsimon said:

DavidL said:

Here we go again: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-45193514

Such things seem to pass without comment these days. Which is a terribly sad state of affairs.

The BBC lunchtime news had this story and told us that 19 accused had been named without naming them. No word on what clues this omission might have given us - they might have been priests for all we knew.

notme

John_M said:

notme said:

Anazina said:

notme said:

sarissa said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Brown is yesterday's man, well into his anecdotage.

If only he had held a refendum on the Lisbon Treaty we wouldn’t be here now with Brexit.

Thread Goodwined at 1412hrs.

Leaving is Remainers' fault.

Pretty much all the pressures associated with the decision to have an in out referendum can be sourced back to the decision to not hold one on the Lisbon Treaty.

We should remember that the Lisbon Treaty was merely a thinly rebadged European constitution.

Which labour and cons had both put in their 2005 manifesto to have a refednum on.
Cameron got caught in a trap of his own making by promising one in the atmosphere of the election that never was. It hung round him like a bad smell.

Philip_Thompson

Anazina said:

notme said:

sarissa said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Brown is yesterday's man, well into his anecdotage.

If only he had held a refendum on the Lisbon Treaty we wouldn’t be here now with Brexit.

Thread Goodwined at 1412hrs.

Leaving is Remainers' fault.

It is indeed. If Remainer politicians hadn't messed us around so much then there wouldn't have been ex-Remainers like myself switching to Leave to get Leave over 50%.

Ditto if the Remain campaign hadn't been so relentlessly negative.

It generally is the losers fault they lost.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1029720036905246721

oxfordsimon

Slackbladder said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1029717125831770113

He can't f**king help it can he. He's more than happy bending over backwards for anything palestianian but won't do anything ever for anything Israeli, even it it's not linked with the state of Israel.

It's clear his issue isn't just with the Isreali stae, it's with the Israeli people as well, including its victims of terror. Utterly one-sided.

He is never going to admit to any fault or failing. He will continue to twist and lie and obfuscate.

He is beneath contempt. And yet will get away with it.

How can we change that? Because we cannot continue as a functioning democracy with an opposition party with that sort of immorality at the heart of the leadership.

Richard_Nabavi

Anazina said:

...BR was most efficient railway in Europe on its point of privatisation. ...

It's not a good idea to try to rewrite history in front of an audience many of whom lived through it.

DecrepitJohnL

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

People who swap heads about really have too much time on their hands.

Quite funny, though.
The Corbyn bit, and May in the lifeboat, almost looked real.

Remember that when you are on the jury. Now video-editing can be done on a laptop on the kitchen table, how can you be sure the CCTV really does show Colonel Mustard in the kitchen with a lead pipe?

notme

ReggieCide said:

notme said:

Anazina said:

DavidL said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.

Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.

No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.

The way rail fares are messed about with is a disgrace. If I was confident I was getting a fair (no pun intended) and reliable price for a journey I would use a lot more trains than I do. But the bottom line is that net taxpayer subsidies for the network amount to about £4bn a year. That is £4bn taken from all taxpayers and given to those who use the railways, many of whom are not even taxpayers.

Is this a good investment? Actually, I would say yes because the alternative is even more clogged roads or reduced economic activity but I can understand the desire to bring what is paid and what is spent into closer balance.

What is depressing is that Chris Grayling has been left in charge of this. That is never going to go well. His continued existence at such a high level of UK politics is a genuine mystery to me.

Nationalise it. At least that way the public have got one arse to kick.

The infrastructure is already nationalised, and what we are discussing here are the regulated fairs. The ones that the government already control the price of.... not sure what nationalisation would achieve.

What British Rail was like - remember?

I remember the trains being not particularly busy as no one was using them. Under government management we witnessed decline decline decline. The very opposite we see now. The biggest problem the uk railways have now is managing the extra capacity.

Slackbladder

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1029720036905246721

Multiple people, including the deputy leader and many MPs have said the same thing. that labour 'must' do this. they've been ignored so far.

What the hell are they going to do, apart from nothing and virtue signal on twitter.

Philip_Thompson

Anazina said:

BR was most efficient railway in Europe on its point of privatisation.

[Citation Needed]

If it was so efficient why were users abandoning it in droves? Why did railway usage consistently plummet in BR days and consistently increase now?

ReggieCide

notme said:

AlastairMeeks said:

ReggieCide said:

"Nobody appears to know what is going to happen and many are fearful of uncertainty" - fearful of uncertainty in this context surely means fearful of life. Nuff said.

Brexit is life? Good grief, the obsession of Leavers reaches new heights.

I think uncertainty is a greater risk than what we eventually end up with. Increased risk requires an increase in return assuming everything else is equal. We seem to have maximum instability at the moment. But since expectations are so low, in terms of politics, May could come through as a successful Brexit if we aren’t all lined up for emergency rations of spam.

A counter view?

https://www.youinvest.co.uk/markets/investment-trusts/scottish-mortgage?utm_source=Scottish+mortage+Aug18&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Scottish+mortgage+investment+trust+report&utm_term=Read+the+updated+report+on+Scottish+Mortgage+Investment+Trust+plc&utm_content=60493&gator_td=sng0FQlwNRYWJUK1YuNTr3yD5wzPBNL4lTH65wwwUDcAmkvb9h7kjSC6chJuNW2g/6bFagWR/KH+KWTqov7Hl36nVH5xklVudsNwsUhDL3FBOY8t5HXPdmdtrSF0RQhHwlO+O8amUINnKbq+d5+K5VC+8Tyd5cE3GVymsRUn2cj5uiZDjeHY2Y8UNKe52Vhd

Anazina

Richard_Nabavi said:

Anazina said:

...BR was most efficient railway in Europe on its point of privatisation. ...

It's not a good idea to try to rewrite history in front of an audience many of whom lived through it.

I'm not, and I also lived through it. It was indeed on most measures the most efficient railway in Europe in the early 1990s.

In any case, I am not sure why people continue to hark back to BR as a model, when it was abolished decades ago. We CURRENTLY have several nationalised railways in the UK, including the most popular network in the UK. Also, ECML was a success on its last nationalisation only a few years ago.

Foxy

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Disappointingly selective of you William. The majority of the polls in the last week before the referendum had Remain winning, albeit by a small margin (apart from Populus, who I am delighted to say had Remain ahead by 10%, oh dear).

Really? heres the polls as published on a reliably good political website on the day before polling:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/

With the rise of postal voting, I think polls 2-3 weeks before may well be a better predictor, they certainly seemed to be for Brexit.

Anazina

Philip_Thompson said:

Anazina said:

notme said:

sarissa said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Brown is yesterday's man, well into his anecdotage.

If only he had held a refendum on the Lisbon Treaty we wouldn’t be here now with Brexit.

Thread Goodwined at 1412hrs.

Leaving is Remainers' fault.

It is indeed. If Remainer politicians hadn't messed us around so much then there wouldn't have been ex-Remainers like myself switching to Leave to get Leave over 50%.

Ditto if the Remain campaign hadn't been so relentlessly negative.

It generally is the losers fault they lost.

Double Goodwin.

DecrepitJohnL

notme said:

sarissa said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Brown is yesterday's man, well into his anecdotage.

If only he had held a refendum on the Lisbon Treaty we wouldn’t be here now with Brexit.

The Lisbon treaty was already not really a treaty by the time Gordon Brown got near it; the earlier decision was Tony Blair's; and since we know George Osborne tried to dissuade David Cameron, the idea the referendum was inevitable also falls.

But nothing excuses Cameron for not (a) nailing down what Brexit meant, via a Royal Commission or some such, and then (b) fighting the referendum in the same way that nearly lost Scotland.

John_M

Foxy said:

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Disappointingly selective of you William. The majority of the polls in the last week before the referendum had Remain winning, albeit by a small margin (apart from Populus, who I am delighted to say had Remain ahead by 10%, oh dear).

Really? heres the polls as published on a reliably good political website on the day before polling:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/

With the rise of postal voting, I think polls 2-3 weeks before may well be a better predictor, they certainly seemed to be for Brexit.

Per William's own link.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

My issue was simply that he was only reporting polls from before Jo Cox's murder, which I found slightly disingenuous. Of course, it's only Wikipedia.

Richard_Nabavi

Anazina said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Anazina said:

...BR was most efficient railway in Europe on its point of privatisation. ...

It's not a good idea to try to rewrite history in front of an audience many of whom lived through it.

I'm not, and I also lived through it. It was indeed on most measures the most efficient railway in Europe in the early 1990s.

In any case, I am not sure why people continue to hark back to BR as a model, when it was abolished decades ago. We CURRENTLY have several nationalised railways in the UK, including the most popular network in the UK. Also, ECML was a success on its last nationalisation only a few years ago.

People 'hark back' to BR because that is what Labour are advocating as their ideal model.

Philip_Thompson

Anazina said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anazina said:

notme said:

sarissa said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Brown is yesterday's man, well into his anecdotage.

If only he had held a refendum on the Lisbon Treaty we wouldn’t be here now with Brexit.

Thread Goodwined at 1412hrs.

Leaving is Remainers' fault.

It is indeed. If Remainer politicians hadn't messed us around so much then there wouldn't have been ex-Remainers like myself switching to Leave to get Leave over 50%.

Ditto if the Remain campaign hadn't been so relentlessly negative.

It generally is the losers fault they lost.

Double Goodwin.

I'm familiar with the phrase Godwin but this is a new one to me, what are you trying to say?

Are you trying to claim that when a government/establishment loses an election that its actions have no bearing with why it lost?

Remain had the full backing of the government, the civil service, the unions, most of the press, most of business, scientific leaders, universities, fear of uncertainty and others yet its nothing to do with Remainers why they lost?

David_Evershed

What proportion of UK voters have access to and watch Comedy Central?

williamglenn

John_M said:

Foxy said:

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Disappointingly selective of you William. The majority of the polls in the last week before the referendum had Remain winning, albeit by a small margin (apart from Populus, who I am delighted to say had Remain ahead by 10%, oh dear).

Really? heres the polls as published on a reliably good political website on the day before polling:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/

With the rise of postal voting, I think polls 2-3 weeks before may well be a better predictor, they certainly seemed to be for Brexit.

Per William's own link.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

My issue was simply that he was only reporting polls from before Jo Cox's murder, which I found slightly disingenuous. Of course, it's only Wikipedia.

Given that it was so close to the vote and the ones before it proved to be more accurate in predicting the final result, isn't it reasonable to conclude there was a shy Leaver effect in polling, or as Foxy said, the earlier polls capture postal voting patterns better?

John_M

Philip_Thompson said:

Anazina said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anazina said:

notme said:

sarissa said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Brown is yesterday's man, well into his anecdotage.

If only he had held a refendum on the Lisbon Treaty we wouldn’t be here now with Brexit.

Thread Goodwined at 1412hrs.

Leaving is Remainers' fault.

It is indeed. If Remainer politicians hadn't messed us around so much then there wouldn't have been ex-Remainers like myself switching to Leave to get Leave over 50%.

Ditto if the Remain campaign hadn't been so relentlessly negative.

It generally is the losers fault they lost.

Double Goodwin.

I'm familiar with the phrase Godwin but this is a new one to me, what are you trying to say?

Are you trying to claim that when a government/establishment loses an election that its actions have no bearing with why it lost?

Remain had the full backing of the government, the civil service, the unions, most of the press, most of business, scientific leaders, universities, fear of uncertainty and others yet its nothing to do with Remainers why they lost?

I defy anyone to read Shipman's account and not marvel at the ineptitude of the Remain campaign. Sadly, no more Brexiteering, a new water butt will not fit itself. Au revoir.

Anazina

Philip_Thompson said:

Anazina said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anazina said:

notme said:

sarissa said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1029708789828780033

Brown is yesterday's man, well into his anecdotage.

If only he had held a refendum on the Lisbon Treaty we wouldn’t be here now with Brexit.

Thread Goodwined at 1412hrs.

Leaving is Remainers' fault.

It is indeed. If Remainer politicians hadn't messed us around so much then there wouldn't have been ex-Remainers like myself switching to Leave to get Leave over 50%.

Ditto if the Remain campaign hadn't been so relentlessly negative.

It generally is the losers fault they lost.

Double Goodwin.

I'm familiar with the phrase Godwin but this is a new one to me, what are you trying to say?

Are you trying to claim that when a government/establishment loses an election that its actions have no bearing with why it lost?

Remain had the full backing of the government, the civil service, the unions, most of the press, most of business, scientific leaders, universities, fear of uncertainty and others yet its nothing to do with Remainers why they lost?

Named after Matthew Goodwin – that Brexit itself or the bad consequences of Brexit are the fault of Remainers – which is the conclusion of 99% of the articles he writes.

Philip_Thompson

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

Foxy said:

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.

The majority of polls before Jo Cox's murder showed Leave would win. I don't think that's a strong argument to dismiss the current polls, which also have the benefit of being able to weight against the 2016 result.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Disappointingly selective of you William. The majority of the polls in the last week before the referendum had Remain winning, albeit by a small margin (apart from Populus, who I am delighted to say had Remain ahead by 10%, oh dear).

Really? heres the polls as published on a reliably good political website on the day before polling:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/

With the rise of postal voting, I think polls 2-3 weeks before may well be a better predictor, they certainly seemed to be for Brexit.

Per William's own link.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

My issue was simply that he was only reporting polls from before Jo Cox's murder, which I found slightly disingenuous. Of course, it's only Wikipedia.

Given that it was so close to the vote and the ones before it proved to be more accurate in predicting the final result, isn't it reasonable to conclude there was a shy Leaver effect in polling, or as Foxy said, the earlier polls capture postal voting patterns better?

Though that was during the campaign. Look at eg 2015 polling before the campaign and Remain had consistent poll leads. It's possible to cherrypick a date range that suits whatever you want to say but either way polls are a snapshot and not fortune telling.

David_Evershed

Slackbladder said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1029720036905246721

Multiple people, including the deputy leader and many MPs have said the same thing. that labour 'must' do this. they've been ignored so far.

What the hell are they going to do, apart from nothing and virtue signal on twitter.

Labour have to educate their members that there is a difference between criticising Israel and criticising Jews. When they try to do this my impression is that they get pushback from Momentum Labour members in particular.