politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Comedy Central’s answer to the Vote Leave Brexit bus

A key part in Leave’s narrow victory at the referendum was its success in portraying negative comments about leaving the EU as “Project Fear”. That was two and a quarter years ago and now the Brexit date of March 29 2019 is not that far off.
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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/14/white-house-staff-omarosa-tapes-777490
Omarosa Manigault Newman’s slow release of secretly taped conversations from inside the Trump campaign and White House is having the same effect on staffers as the daily dumps from WikiLeaks had on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, when chairman John Podesta’s emails were trickled out during the final stretch of the race.
“People are terrified,” one former Trump aide said of the tapes. “Absolutely terrified.”
The Corbyn bit, and May in the lifeboat, almost looked real.
What's the difference between what Robinson has done and what Corbyn has done?
Seems to me that leavers are in trouble on 3 fronts: losing the argument on nothing to fear from leaving, not seeing any benefits for decades, and legality of the referendum. Easy to fight on one or two fronts but three? notable how the only response on all 3 is now 'will of the people' rather than fighting on the arguments. Retreat, no?
However I wouldn't describe the May position as BINO - EEA membership perhaps would be but this is still far from it. It'll be much more expensive in both cash and practical terms as it will cut us off from EU institutions and programmes. If May manages to package this as soft Brexit (which is where Labour are heading, not the Tories) then that's a mighty smart re-brand.
My fight, such as it is, will take place via the ballot box. If we have a second referendum, I'll vote to Leave and if we have a GE, I'll vote for a Brexit party. I may lose either/both. Let's see
Ah well, we'll just have to manage.
Unless we, er,
kick the can down the roadextend Article 50.What angers me about the Standard front page isn't the Corbyn story but the 3.2% rail fares increase which is outrageous given the crap service inflicted on many railway users.
Last time I looked inflation is nowhere near 3.2% and my salary isn't going up 3.2% next year so I'm out of pocket and my living standards are eroded once again.
No wonder so many people are fed up with the Conservative model of failure and are looking to embrace alternative models of failure.
Or is he relying on polls - almost all of which predicted a remain win by up to 10 per cent in one case on the day of the referendum.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
The electorate gives an opinion - government acts on it.
So whatever happens, there will be plenty of recriminations and even more told-you-so's.
The dynamics would be completely different.
Is this a good investment? Actually, I would say yes because the alternative is even more clogged roads or reduced economic activity but I can understand the desire to bring what is paid and what is spent into closer balance.
What is depressing is that Chris Grayling has been left in charge of this. That is never going to go well. His continued existence at such a high level of UK politics is a genuine mystery to me.
"Suggestion" sounded like an odd word to me (Based upon the powers I think he has in this area) but perhaps it's correct.
Would solve a couple of issues.
Love the Corbyn bit.
The people's vote campaign has already shown the ability to mobilise hundreds of thousands of people to march against Brexit. No anti-EU campaign has ever come close to that.
Remaining a perpetual possibility
Only in a world of speculation.
What might have been and what has been
Point to one end, which is always present.
Footfalls echo in the memory
Down the passage which we did not take
Towards the door we never opened
Into the rose-garden
But we did open it, although it's not clear if there's a rose garden or a waste land behind it, or maybe just another garden much like the one we left. Either way, we can't go back; the option of pretending the referendum never happened, that Cameron is still PM, Osborne is still Chancellor, Corbyn is still a back-bencher, and we have embraced the settlement which Cameron had negotiated, doesn't exist. Almost certainly, even the pre-Cameron position of opt-outs and rebates would not be available. Why should it be? Our EU friends quite sensibly didn't much trust our commitment to The Project then; they are hardly going to be more trusting now.
I think uncertainty is a greater risk than what we eventually end up with. Increased risk requires an increase in return assuming everything else is equal. We seem to have maximum instability at the moment. But since expectations are so low, in terms of politics, May could come through as a successful Brexit if we aren’t all lined up for emergency rations of spam.
Leaving is Remainers' fault.
If you can make sense of it (LENNON?? I mean, really?) please enlighten the rest of us.
Grayling has clearly got hold of the 1 bit he could understand which was the use of RPI instead of CPI.
https://www.ft.com/content/a9a0bb36-a061-11e8-85da-eeb7a9ce36e4
It's clear his issue isn't just with the Isreali stae, it's with the Israeli people as well, including its victims of terror. Utterly one-sided.
BINO, for me, would be remaining part of the treaty structures that require 'ever closer union'. I really wouldn't have minded EFTA/EEA, because, as I've said many times, our relationship with the EU will evolve over decades. It's a process, not an event.
What's the difference between Corbyn and Paisley?
Pretty much all the pressures associated with the decision to have an in out referendum can be sourced back to the decision to not hold one on the Lisbon Treaty.
Cameron got caught in a trap of his own making by promising one in the atmosphere of the election that never was. It hung round him like a bad smell.
Ditto if the Remain campaign hadn't been so relentlessly negative.
It generally is the losers fault they lost.
He is beneath contempt. And yet will get away with it.
How can we change that? Because we cannot continue as a functioning democracy with an opposition party with that sort of immorality at the heart of the leadership.
What the hell are they going to do, apart from nothing and virtue signal on twitter.
If it was so efficient why were users abandoning it in droves? Why did railway usage consistently plummet in BR days and consistently increase now?
https://www.youinvest.co.uk/markets/investment-trusts/scottish-mortgage?utm_source=Scottish+mortage+Aug18&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Scottish+mortgage+investment+trust+report&utm_term=Read+the+updated+report+on+Scottish+Mortgage+Investment+Trust+plc&utm_content=60493&gator_td=sng0FQlwNRYWJUK1YuNTr3yD5wzPBNL4lTH65wwwUDcAmkvb9h7kjSC6chJuNW2g/6bFagWR/KH+KWTqov7Hl36nVH5xklVudsNwsUhDL3FBOY8t5HXPdmdtrSF0RQhHwlO+O8amUINnKbq+d5+K5VC+8Tyd5cE3GVymsRUn2cj5uiZDjeHY2Y8UNKe52Vhd
In any case, I am not sure why people continue to hark back to BR as a model, when it was abolished decades ago. We CURRENTLY have several nationalised railways in the UK, including the most popular network in the UK. Also, ECML was a success on its last nationalisation only a few years ago.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/the-online-polls-all-have-leave-ahead/
With the rise of postal voting, I think polls 2-3 weeks before may well be a better predictor, they certainly seemed to be for Brexit.
But nothing excuses Cameron for not (a) nailing down what Brexit meant, via a Royal Commission or some such, and then (b) fighting the referendum in the same way that nearly lost Scotland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
My issue was simply that he was only reporting polls from before Jo Cox's murder, which I found slightly disingenuous. Of course, it's only Wikipedia.
Are you trying to claim that when a government/establishment loses an election that its actions have no bearing with why it lost?
Remain had the full backing of the government, the civil service, the unions, most of the press, most of business, scientific leaders, universities, fear of uncertainty and others yet its nothing to do with Remainers why they lost?