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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer puts the case for a new election
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer puts the case for a new election
Quite naturally, most of the focus lately has been on Mrs May’s increasingly desperate attempts to reach a deal which steers between the Scylla of EU rejection and the Charybdis of ERG revolt. She may yet succeed. If she does, however, it is clear that it will be a narrow squeeze, built on navigation by fudge, postponement of key decisions and general statements of intent to patch the timbers of the ship where water is pouring in. It is possible to imagine a package that is generally seen as unsatisfactory but passes the Commons by a majority of, say, 15, leaving details to be resolved over an indeterminate transition period years into the future.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3PKE8uTSp8
The party would be better working out what it stands for, first. An election today with no (of conflicted) position on Brexit won't repeat the (semi-) happy experience of 2017.
Come out strongly for a vote on the final deal. Then call for an election.
Yes, it seems unlikely the exact same precarious balance of power will be returned, and there is always the possibility that in a new election a different dynamic emerges which tips things decisively one way or another. But it might not. Unless it was decisive for one side or the other, to the point as you note that internal rebels cannot hold the government hostage, it would be pointless - could some different coalition or confidence and supply agreement really be more reliable than the shaky one we already have, particularly if it involves more factions?
Yes the Tories should resolve their factional issues and either back or sack May, indeed they should have already done so, but even if they do, and even with a delay of a few months as suggested, it doesn't give much time for the Tories to get themselves in order, so in fact this seems to be more just a hope that Corbyn will be better placed for a fresh election, which they would be - while he has some Brexit troubles (and this election would still be framed around candidates' approaches on Brexit), it is the Tories who would struggle to reconcile their divisions around a new position.
I'd need some much more compelling arguments that a GE would actually help the country, compared to alternatives which admittedly have their own issues, beyond 'IDK, there's a chance it could be a clearer outcome'.
I flatly disagree with Dr Palmer's claim '20 gains' would allow Corbyn to form a government. Even if they were all from the Tories - which isn't terribly likely - that still leaves him well behind the Tories and reliant on at least two more parties to form a government, not forgetting his own backbenchers are hardly more reliable for him than the ERG group are for May. If the gains are from the SNP, the arithmetic is even more difficult. No government has been formed by the second largest party in the age of universal suffrage, and the one time it was attempted the attempt lasted less than 72 hours.
Unless one party or another makes very substantial gains, an election would make things worse. At least at the moment the threat of a dissolution is keeping some of the awkward squad on all sides in line. If an election produces no change then that threat is gone and we have genuine paralysis.
The only reason Labour want an election is they believe they could win it now and may not win it later. I'm not totally sure they're correct, but it's certainly Corbyn's best chance of taking power.
An election campaign which included a commitment to a new referendum would for obvious reasons not be able to repeat that trick (even leaving aside how daft the idea of a new referendum is on its own terms, since it would almost certainly just result in another Leave vote).
https://twitter.com/dmreporter/status/1023253317575696384?s=21
After all, the divisions in the party have been a large part of May's problem, but she has also managed the MPs very poorly. Is managing his MPs an area of strength for Corbyn? They are magically going to cause no problems is he ekes out a win?
And if he does, he'll still have very little time even with an extension to resolve the EU issue.
Hypothetically if May were leading and got a majority back she might be able to get things done, maybe, but she won't be given the chance, and if she did I see no reason why she could even do as well as last time given how many of her party are up in arms about her recent actions.
So very little chance of a more stable outcome.
Telling part
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No shit.
You read stuff like that and you think it has to be parody, and funny too as it is so ridiculous (someone writes about a 'mooslym' becoming PM for heaven's sake) but no, it's all real.
And do these people not know what an immigrant is?
Even if its another referendum on the ‘deal’!
That's already problematic, but the only other scenario I see involves utter collapse of the negotiations and both parties' discipline, which does not seem a good place to have a GE.
(I should stress I don't intend this to be taken entirely seriously!)
Admittedly not for the Unionists who sometimes ended up fielding three candidates in the same constituency, but it was dandy for the Liberals.
Labour's position on Brexit is based on almost as much cakeism as the Tories. And most Labour MPs favour a second referendum and, in their heart of hearts, would like to reverse Brexit altogether. A fact which is not unknown to the EU. in these circumstances it would be just as difficult for Labour to find a way forward as it is for the Tories. And the curse that is Brexit would threaten to destroy Labour just as surely as it is destroying the Tories at the moment.
Brexit is a Tory disaster, it is becoming clearer by the day that it has unleashed insoluble problems and deepening divisions which are very likely to lead to an economic and political crisis within the next few months. A new election will not change this situation, the storm cannot now be prevented. All we can do is hope that we will will not be consumed by it and that there will be political leaders of courage and vision to pick up the pieces when it has passed. Politicians who really have the national interest at heart need to be planning for the aftermath and not fighting yet another election battle of fatuous cliches and fantasy promises.
But somehow I don't think we'll end up with Vince facing whoever's turn it is to lead UKIP this week across the despatch box.
This may be as @Jonathan says a flaw in the system. However, as Greece and Italy show there could be worse flaws.
So, a majority of MPs in agreement that they don't want to crash out but unable to agree to an alternative. A referendum isn't in their gift but a vote of no confidence in HMG is...
1. Theresa May agrees to what the EU ideally wants and accepts Norway + CU
2. The Conservative Party splits. This would be inevitable under such circumstances, not merely because of the ideological convictions of many of the MPs but also because most Conservative members AND voters backed Leave. The Tory Right (Freedom Party, Reform Party, whatever they decide to call themselves) and the DUP both desert May
3. The Remain majority of Tory and Labour MPs form a temporary compact to prop up May until the deal is in the bag
4. The Rump Conservatives are then ejected from office in a vote of no confidence and a GE is called
It's also why I see No Deal as the most likely outcome. The EU can't and won't budge from its fixed positions, leaving May with a straight choice between EEA/CU and nothing, and she can only pick the former if she's so terrified of the consequences of No Deal that she is prepared to end her career, destroy the Conservative Party and put Jeremy Corbyn into No.10 in order to avoid it. Unless there's anything obvious that I'm missing...?
On topic.
I'd like a new election, I'm not sure I see it happening just yet though if the Tories really do get stuck they could throw the dice and pray for the best. I get the feeling they'd be reluctant to have a new election after the experience of the last one so they would need to be somewhat forced into it.
Whilst I do wonder if it might be better for the country for Labour to take over now I do wonder if it might be better for Labour to not take over right now or very soon and let the Tories create a bigger mess potentially.
Interesting read as always Nick.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37tS9ZYG7zU
A GE is how you avoid a 2nd referendum.
A 2nd referendum is how you avoid a GE.
If it was politically expedient - which I suspect it won't be - then it could happen.
So we've had the 'brains' of the operation visiting in the last few days and now the foot soldiers are stirring.
Edit: Slightly strange with the happy looking picture of JRM as the Britain First guy makes his threats...
Croatians in the south of the country are steaming over a tunnel that has cost taxpayers 280m kuna (£33m; $44m) and "leads to nowhere".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-44982830
Also agree that whilst Labour could perhaps make a better fist of Brexit than the Tories (surely they couldn't be worse) it would not be good for them politically. Better to let the Tories stew and wait until the crisis has come to a head before pushing for a new election.
However, even the list of issues you identified taken as a whole would equate to a crisis more serious than the 3-day week in 1974, and probably not exceeded since 1940.
My view is that if, as currently seems likely, we are faced with that prospect, it is inconceivable that the government would take that step without either a second referendum (to confirm or refute that as a nation we want ot go through with it), or a 'who Governs' GE.
I think a 2nd referendum is more likely to gain HoC support, avoids the Tories risking a Corbyn government and resolves the crisis more quickly, than a GE.
https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oxford_Campaign_for_an_Independent_Britain.png#mw-jump-to-license (third from left)
It certainly looks similar.
Look who's in the back row as well...
https://www.total-croatia-news.com/business/29496-rijeka-holds-record-for-number-of-eu-financed-projects
Otherwise God knows what will happen to me for posting a photo of Hannan, Rees-Mogg and unless mine eyes deceive me, George Osborne.
Blaming it on the Eurosceptics is just an extra twist of the knife
The Greek government were lucky to get that far in 2015 - in 2011 the EU effectively forced the Greek government to cancel a referendum when polls suggested 60 per cent of Greeks would vote to reject the EU bailout package
Such a respect for referendums does the EU have!
If so, what is the question?
Does it come before or after the end of the negotiations?
Can we get it done before the Brexit date, and if not will the EU accept an extension AND is there a Parliamentary majority for delay?
What are the answers? In/Out? Yes/No? Multi-option as suggested by Justine Greening?
Is it advisory or binding?
How are the official campaigns to be designated?
How long will it take to choose the official campaigns, and for them to be organised, and to gather funds (or will they be funded by the state?)
What are the rules of engagement?
Will it be subject to legal objections, and how long will they take to resolve in the courts?
How long are the campaigns going to be?
What if it produces the same result again?
What if it produces another result but, depending on the question and answers selected, it's also one that Parliament can't, or doesn't want to, implement?
etc, etc...
This is one reason why (a) our leave vote has turned into a shambles (voters were offered things in the power of the EU) and (b) a referendum to remain would be pointless.
That's tricky, as there's several options, although if the EU continue to reject then it could be No deal or remain
End, if a deal is even reached, as it would presumably be about accepting said deal
Parliament can move very quickly if it needs to and the legislation need not be complicated, so yes. Majority for delay if needed? Maybe not, that's the problem, there's seemingly no majority for anything
Depends
Depends on what the legislation says - last time it was not because it didn't say its result would be enacted
No idea
Another problem with the idea, particular as the question is as yet unclear
No drawing of blood
Probably.
As short as is allowable. I think the Electoral Commission recommend at least 6 weeks?
If it is the same, vague question, one would hope that it would settle things and MPs would have to move on, but that cannot be guaranteed. But the question may be more specific (eg deal, no deal, remain) so it isn't the same either way
We're even more screwed.
- A general election is unavoidably about far more than Brexit. It's about the next five years of Government across the entire economy, domestic policy, foreign policy, industry - everything. An election would inevitably be about far more than our relationship with the EU, and using it solely as such would be ingenuous at best.
- It presupposes that Corbyn and his group would be in favour of an EEA-like arrangement. Or, indeed, any specific arrangement acceptable to all parties. I am not at all convinced of that.
Mercy shall be relegated to the back of the queue.
The reasons why our Leave vote has turned into a shambles are (1) that Parliament legislated for a vote with two options when it only ever wanted to honour one of them, and (2) the attempt of the Prime Minister to sort the situation out with a General Election was defeated by the people. We really are all in this together.
I did think that until I made the picture bigger, from a distance it looks like him. Unless your on about something else.
Also is it JRM with I assume ears that weren't pinned back yet at the back?
@anothernick
Yeah my thinking is though they may still have problems in regards to Brexit Labour probably can't do any worse at not making a decision. I do feel that the Labour MPs are probably more willing to compromise on the issue as well, less zealots and less zealous, although they still exist.
https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1023286752830734337
of shit.
What it all highlights though (including the young bespectacled gent at 36minutes) is how the Tory right/Eurosceptics/whatever have failed to produce a credible Prime ministerial candidate for 30 years. Redwood/Lilley/IDS/Howard/Davis/Fox have never had traction with the public. Maybe a mature Hague was closest but I think it'sbeen a while since they put their faith in him.
Maybe this is why the Portillo moment has such resonance? He was the last credible right wing option as Prime minister and many non-Tories could see it.
https://twitter.com/edballs/status/1022874907439497218
He actually has a point. He believes Tories should cut earned Income tax and not tax on unearned income.
So the argument is not made that it would actually improve things.
Fascinating video though. Bizarre that they wasted eight minutes questioning Redwood's decision to challenge for the leadership, even though Major called the bloody election in the first place! Probably a sound decision of Major to dodge this event, though.
It was also amazing to see just how deluded some Tories were in 1995. I wonder at what point after this contest all those supporters of Major started to realise that those in Faversham had it right?
Helpful stuff.