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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A week after Helsinki and Trump’s ratings remain solid

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    CD13 said:

    Brown may have been a little cynical but every government's aim is to create a feel-good mood for the electorate at polling time. When he took over as PM, he wasn't looking a decade ahead, merely to the next GE as most do. The 'cynical' view is usually correct.

    It's the same with Brexit. From Barnier's viewpoint, he is boxed in. What can he concede on? A good trade deal? No chance. The other 27 members would them ask why they were taking on the fill responsibilities of members when a non-member can get some of the same benefits.

    Freedom of movement? No chance. All 27 countries would want the same benefits too and the whole ethos of the EU would crumble.

    So Barnier has to do is what his predecessor, De Gaulle, did years ago. Say non.

    I claimed I could do Barnier's job on here and I meant it. My job, should I accept it, would be to sit back and claim that the UK was being unhelpful by asking for impossible things (which they are, given Barnier's remit).

    The first and most important thing is to keep the money coming in. Sort out the shortfall. Check. Next blame the UK for not being unco-operative. Check. For a bonus, delay and dissemble and if possible hold out the chance of a transition period, the lengthier the better. Check. Even if they're not daft enough to fall for a BINO, they may just be fed-up enough to give it all up and return chastened to the fold.

    Labour may claim they could negotiate better but that's just politics. Yet no one is interested in being honest.

    Politicians lie in various ways, but generally we're aware of it. This is where our biases take over. We know Brown was being cynical, we know Barnier is not negotiating, but we can choose to believe them.

    Good post.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,880
    Mortimer said:

    A letter that utterly fails to even consider the democratic importance of doing things when you ask the electorate, and of upholding the social contract by ensuring that the people of this country benefit from the growth of this country.

    At least it doesn’t bemoan the idea of rising wages, I guess.
    It calls for another referendum.

    In fact, it’s Brexiters who no longer want a mandate for their No Deal platform.

    Your growth point is a non sequitur, or even a fallacy given that projection suggest manufacturing regions will be hit hardest.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Yes, he says stuff which is clearly false and outrageous, but then he goes and says stuff which is entirely true, which no one else will say. i.e. Muslim immigration into liberal democracies is severely problematic, and should be curtailed.

    Who seriously disputes this? But who, amongst the "leaders" of Europe, would say it?

    I honestly don't get this.

    If I look at Reddit and the other cesspools of the internet (not including this hallowed ground in that category, of course) it's full of Americans saying that Sweden and the Low Countries - but particularly Sweden, for some reason - have been made a living hell by Muslim immigration. And increasingly that argument is picked up over here.

    I grew up near Leicester. Leicester is 50% non-white. 19% Muslim.

    It is absolutely fine. It is, in fact, a lovely city.

    You do not switch on the radio and hear stories of Muslim riots or Muslim stabbings or sharia law in Leicester or whatever other masturbatory fantasies Paul Joseph Watson might conjure up. Leicester is just fine. And if you want a vision of integration, go to Foxton Locks at a weekend - what could be more English than a black-and-white-painted flight of canal locks, two real ale pubs and a country walk? - and do a demographic survey.

    So why say that "Muslim immigration into liberal democracies" is by its nature "severely problematic"? It clearly doesn't have to be, and we, as a nation, have proved that. How Sweden integrates its 6% Muslim population, even if you follow the Reddit knuckle-draggers' line, is not a more illuminating example than how Leicester integrates its 19%.
    Tell that to the 1500 white girls, victims of Muslim racist pedophile gangrape in Rotherham, you blinkered fool. And then move on to the estimated 100,000-200,000 other victims. And then move on...

    Oh what's the point, with people like you.
    What happened in Rotherham is not the fault of innocent Muslims in Leicester.
    What happened in Rotherham is the fault of guilty paedophiles in Rotherham.
    What happened in Rotherham is the fault of those authorities who ignored the evidence of what was happening.

    Blame the real culprits.
    SeanT doesn't want to face the fact that in many cases (obviously not all but many) racism directed towards the Pakistani community as a whole helped the pedophiles and sexual abusers. Families of the victims and the local white community ostracised the abuse victims as "P**i shaggers" whilst the abuse was ongoing.

    In these cases of ostracision the girls society treated what they had done as breaking their strict sexual norms and left them at the mercy of their abusers rather than helping them.
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    LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457

    In summary, we are going to be a lot poorer for the sake of an Edwardian fantasy. Brilliant. Every voter should be send a copy before the 2nd referendum.
    Just the usual remainer waffle, nothing special. Nothing remainers didn’t say in referendum campaign, though at the time to some degree drowned out by Cameron warning of WW III.

    The problem is really with how you understand and use democracy. You can tell a voter what is going to happen, and they can simply say I don’t believe you.
    “Your Hispanic, you voted Trump, he said he is going to fill planes full of Hispanics and fly them out”
    “I don’t believe he’s going to do that”.

    It worked for a certain persuasion of politicians in Britain when they won the Brexit referendum, will work against them when those same voters vote in Corbin government.
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