politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Boris speculation grows the latest bets on whether he’ll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Boris speculation grows the latest bets on whether he’ll make an early return to the Commons
With Dave saying he would welcome the return of Boris to the House of Commons, Hills are offering odds of 4/1 that he will become an MP BEFORE the General Election, and 6/4 that he does so AT the General Election.
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Based on past performance I should steer well clear of the Buzzword bingo, but the 6/4 looks too generous - I'd price it at ~4/5. Is Shadsy on holiday?
Thanks @tim
If necessary he could enter a leadership race after the next general election even if he doesn't have a seat. The idea of holding a leadership race without him if he chooses to stand is unthinkable. Any leader elected from a race that excluded him would lack a mandate, so the pressure to change the rules to let him stand would be irresistible. In practice, I expect David Cameron would defer stepping down until Boris was back in the House of Commons at a by-election.
Let's assume the 8/13 Miliband is correct[ish - it's actually a touch short]. How do we bet "Any other Labour" and "Any Tory"? I'd have thought something like 5/1 and 9/4 - implying that if Miliband doesn't get in, it's about 2:1 in the Tories' favour - having the advantage of most of the more likely 2015-2020 Dave replacement options in there first.
Hills have placed the Labourites too short here and as such May @ 14/1 looks a touch of value, and even BoJo 20/1 isn't horrible, though I can't see it myself. For the more adventurous, Jeremy Hunt is available at 66s elsewhere.
If BoJo seeks nomination for 2015 he will have to either double up as mayor and MP or resign as mayor before his term ends.
If he doubles up he will be criticised for not taking the mayoralty seriously and this will damage his leadership chances.
If he resigns he will be accused of abandoning ship and going back on his commitment to serve a full mayoral term and this will damage his leadership chances.
If he does not stand in 2015 he is unlikely to be an MP for the next Tory leadership contest and this will damage his leadership chances.
I am sure this interesting conundrum has not not escaped the notice of his potential rivals.
Boris Johnson is an alpha bloke!
The correct solution to this conundrum for any serious politician is to make sure Boris Johnson could stand and hope to beat him, not to try to hide behind party rules.
Interesting odds in some respects, in terms of charisma and ability to charm people Boris is underrated. Miliband figure of fun, or pity? May or Cooper hard to decide which of them is more charmless or overrated. Umunna you cannot be serious.
So he'd be best served by Cameron then remaining as PM and Boris coming back into the Commons c. 2017.
To be honest, so much is going to depend on the precise result of the election and the government that results. Betting on the "Year of Next General Election After May 2015" would be interesting; my tissue would be something like:
2015 4/1
2016 9/2
2017 8/1
2018 12/1
2019 10/1
2020 11/10
Cripes. A positively illiadic tango. Like watching Paris and Helen in the first flush of the doomed love affair that destroyed homeric troy....
While I agree with antifrank that the rules would probably be changed were Boris to see out his term and the Tories to lose office in 2015, it'd still be more difficult for him to win while outside parliament (though there is precedent: Douglas-Home became leader in that position).
Thing is, though, people love him.
Which queers the pitch a bit.
To be honest I suspect you'll get a better price after polling day even if either side manages a majority.
Mr. Polruan, I agree. I've backed that, and Red Ed at 4, and You Can't Trust Labour at 5.
My thinking is that the Conservatives want to talk about the economy and Labour's lack of mentioning it. Land grabs by the state and price freezes are ripe for a return of Red Ed.
Labour won in London at the 2010 GE by 36.6% to 34.5%, yet Boris still managed to win the mayoralty in 2012 (albeit against Livingstone).
You could forgive a Tory for thinking that he'd be the party's best chance of a majority.
Another hung parliament, May = PM Boris = Home Sec works as a scenario.
That's one potential crisis of legitimacy; another would be PM Miliband leading a Lab min or maj government 1.5%+ behind on votes - I really think things could get a bit nasty [the press tacitly encouraging civil disobedience?] if that were the case.
Shouldn't Boris get selected to oppose Ed Davey if he wants to return to the Commons?
However a caution to his ambition is that the further from the M25 one travels, the less the appeal of Boris exists. He would be very popular in the SE but of little political interest north of Birmingham where his career thus far has been marked by insulting communities who don't doff their caps to the all self-important London.
http://www.water-technology.net/projects/-ras-al-khair-desalination-plant/
It will be the largest desalination plant of its kind in the world, capable of serving about 3.5 billion people in the city of Riyadh.
3.5 billion? I didn't realise Riyadh was so big.
Cameron must be feeling reasonably optimistic about staying in No 10 for a second term (at least). Boris will not be his successor.
**But I would hope he'd be beaten for selection by local boy made good Tory, namely our very own JohnLoony.
Boris could be just what the country wants in 2020.
Probably. ;^ )
I would confidently state there is currently a lot more talent on the Tory Front bench than Labour, lot's more options Gove, May, Bojo, even Os is now looking the part. Who have Labour got Cooper comes second to May in the Commons, Umunna surely not, Balls, Burnham, no more needs saying. Who else the cupboard looks bare.
His main stumbling block will be IN or OUT of Europe as he is very close to the city where OUT is not viewed with the same kind of fervour as with most of the tory grassroots.
If Cameron loses Boris will be the man who can win in hostile territory. If Cameron wins he gets a chance to get a cabinet level job and burnish his credentials for leadership when Cameron stands down. It all looks win win and pretty inevitable to me.
And how much UK tax is paid by the Mail group and its proprietors?
May is getting plaudits for not making a complete mess of the Home Sec job which is a notorious graveyard of ministers while Gove shares Osbrowne's amusing ability to repulse voters. Boris has built up a powerbase in London.However, that isn't the same as building a powerbase in westminster and he would struggle with tory MPs suspicious of his flashy and mercurial ways until he had done some more time courting them.
As for Labour, that would be their problem, though Cooper is every bit as viable as May is.
That might not be saying much but it could be enough in a fallow field.
Otherwise, if you don't like The Daily Mail, refuse to buy the paper or visit the website.
I see your fellow travellers are busy smearing Dacre across the web.
http://tompride.co.uk/while-ralph-miliband-was-fighting-in-normandy-paul-dacre-s-father-was-avoiding-the-front-line
Hardly a coincidence.
He will presumably be able to do as much MP work as a Cabinet Minister - if you can double up MP and Secretary of State I don't see why you can't double up MP and mayor of a city.
Ed Miliband story only the 17th most read story on @MailOnline today. So much for the rubbish on here about a backlash. Readers don't care.
You really can't help yourself can you?
McBride's book hits Sunday Times @ST_Newsroom best seller list but CAFOD turn down his cash catholicherald.co.uk/news/2013/10/0…
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
Labour are now data harvesting for the election on the back of this row. Read into that what you will.
Matthew Holehouse
@mattholehouse
@MrHarryCole A pattern. Goes submarine for about three months then surfaces to properly needle someone, while seizing the high ground.
'In 1944 when the 22-year old Ralph Miliband was bravely risking his life storming German positions protecting the Normandy beaches,'
Did Ed mention the storming of the Normandy beaches before?
Even so, it was clear that if either was made PM, they'd have to enter the Commons and so effectively neither had a secure seat in parliament when they were appointed PM, and, by association, party leader.
Unspoofable - you are so ridiculous it's not longer even fun pointing it out.
Now, now. Let's not get into the blame game of who has been leaking to who against little Ed. Yet again. Next thing you know someone will be saying Tom Harris didn't quit to spend more time with his family.
...aware of the fact that many of his Belgian comrades were engaged in the war against Fascism and traumatised by the absence of his mother and sister, had volunteered (for naval service), using Laski's influence to override the bureaucracy.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/obituary-professor-ralph-miliband-1438110.html
Please feel free to highlight that post tim.
Would women be conscripted too, with a narrowing of the age band to enable more men and women to stay at home?
"Berry’s idea was a ‘New Deal for Generation Rent’, and he also wrote about this for us in January. He wanted longer-term tenancies to help families stay in the same home, rather than having to up sticks and even move schools when the landlord raised the rent or decided to end the tenancy. He has been working on the ideas since joining the board, and is now celebrating seeing them move into official government policy. Under a new ‘tenants’ charter’, families will be able to request longer tenancies from their landlords. It’s a good example of one of the little things that the Tories need to be making a song and dance about to show that they care about hardworking families, but it’s also an example of the policy board starting to do its job.
I don't any more than I discount it for all those lib dem MPs who are looking extinction in the face under Clegg.
Boris current lack of a devoted coterie among tory MPs is not insurmountable but it's a problem.
Tory MPs also have a habit of not giving a monkey's about electability when Euroscepticism or even some other issues/personal animosity are in play. As the likes of Clarke, Portillo and several other prospective tory leaders know all too well.