politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though TMay could be facing a confidence vote
Whispers Tory MP s have reached the magic number of the 48 letters required to force a confidence vote – no way of knowing yet if true – meeting at 5.30
Someone asked the PM in the house about this tweet and whether she'd fight for her job - the PM replied the only jobs she was focussing on were those of the people of the UK....
If May wins a leadership challenge, then she gets year. If she loses, does the new leader also get a year, or are they in peril from day one?
If she loses we have a full campaign for a new leader with two candidates eventually being put to the membership. This could take all summer
And what of the country as the Conservatives navel-gaze for months on end ?!?
Jack a man of your experience and sagacity should know by now that the country is not the Tories' priority. What they are really interested in is their own internal psychodrama and the country is just collateral damage. As the former foreign secretary didn't say, their attitude over the past few years has been "f*ck the country." And they are continuing in that vein.
I always start from the position of wishing a new administration well and initially allowing them the benefit of the doubt as they wrestle with the complex nature of governing a modern liberal democracy.
We are well past allowing this shower a fair wind. The government is a mess and the Prime Minister has failed the nation. That said we are also treated to a Labour party completely unfit for office "led" by a man who would be out of his depth as Chairman of a small parish council.
The situation is dire and so are the political leaders.
The only thing which is keeping me as a 'determined to vote' Conservative is the fact that Labour is led by the hard left. I have never voted away from the party since i became eligible to vote in 1975.
So, Johnson has quit as expected then. Good. The only hope for the Tories is they don't pussyfoot around anymore and actually have the knock down internal fight they so sorely need. If there is an election this year they are screwed, but at least if they have a fight and see if one side can win without the other side flouncing off then they may have a few years to try to recover from the rank incompetence of the past year.
Not to have a contest at this point would a farce on top of a farce. What is May supposed to negotiate if her 50-60 at least of her party including Cabinet big beasts are making clear they won't support her deal? They have to actually have the fight.
Tragic to see how the UK is lost in the post-referendum chaos. This used to be a nation providing leadership to the world. Now it can’t even provide leadership to itself."
But David Cameron said that Ed Miliband would bring a ‘coalition of chaos’ and only he offered competence....
Had he won the referendum it was a fair assumption
Does Boris have the guts to turn up at the 1922 meeting, or will he just bottle it?
I still think May's strategic objective is to force Boris or one of the premier tier Leavers into publicly saying that we'd be better off staying in the EU and that no deal is unthinkable.
Will May stand or resign? I can't see her winning because the choice at this point is May or not-May. Under the old system where she'd face named fruitcakes, May would probably win by a landslide but the new system, designed to strengthen the sitting PM, seems to me to weaken and even condemn her.
To estimate the letters Graham Brady has, take you age, less four (if you are a man) or five (if you are not a man) double it, and take off your birthday month.
If they don't send in the letters to provoke a contest May should send one in herself - the can won't be kicked any further, it's just pathetic to see some generally sensible Tories delude themselves that this issue is not cutting the party to the core, it is existential, and they cannot sort themselves out without confronting it.
If they don't send in the letters to provoke a contest May should send one in herself - the can won't be kicked any further, it's just pathetic to see some generally sensible Tories delude themselves that this issue is not cutting the party to the core, it is existential, and they cannot sort themselves out without confronting it.
If TMay resigns to force a contest, then she cannot stand in it.
To estimate the letters Graham Brady has, take you age, less four (if you are a man) or five (if you are not a man) double it, and take off your birthday month.
If May wins a leadership challenge, then she gets year. If she loses, does the new leader also get a year, or are they in peril from day one?
If she loses we have a full campaign for a new leader with two candidates eventually being put to the membership. This could take all summer
And what of the country as the Conservatives navel-gaze for months on end ?!?
Jack a man of your experience and sagacity should know by now that the country is not the Tories' priority. What they are really interested in is their own internal psychodrama and the country is just collateral damage. As the former foreign secretary didn't say, their attitude over the past few years has been "f*ck the country." And they are continuing in that vein.
I always start from the position of wishing a new administration well and initially allowing them the benefit of the doubt as they wrestle with the complex nature of governing a modern liberal democracy.
We are well past allowing this shower a fair wind. The government is a mess and the Prime Minister has failed the nation. That said we are also treated to a Labour party completely unfit for office "led" by a man who would be out of his depth as Chairman of a small parish council.
The situation is dire and so are the political leaders.
I would assume with the statement made by No.10 earlier about May fighting any challenge they must know it's at the very least close to the trigger target.
If they don't send in the letters to provoke a contest May should send one in herself - the can won't be kicked any further, it's just pathetic to see some generally sensible Tories delude themselves that this issue is not cutting the party to the core, it is existential, and they cannot sort themselves out without confronting it.
If TMay resigns to force a contest, then she cannot stand in it.
I didn't say resign - I said send in a letter calling for a contest (to get the numbers to the required level). It wasn't a serious suggestion, the point was if after all these resignations and the recriminations I will have utter contempt for the rebels/soon to be rulers if theythey hold off on forcing a contest.
If May wins a leadership challenge, then she gets year. If she loses, does the new leader also get a year, or are they in peril from day one?
If she loses we have a full campaign for a new leader with two candidates eventually being put to the membership. This could take all summer
And what of the country as the Conservatives navel-gaze for months on end ?!?
Jack a man of your experience and sagacity should know by now that the country is not the Tories' priority. What they are really interested in is their own internal psychodrama and the country is just collateral damage. As the former foreign secretary didn't say, their attitude over the past few years has been "f*ck the country." And they are continuing in that vein.
I always start from the position of wishing a new administration well and initially allowing them the benefit of the doubt as they wrestle with the complex nature of governing a modern liberal democracy.
We are well past allowing this shower a fair wind. The government is a mess and the Prime Minister has failed the nation. That said we are also treated to a Labour party completely unfit for office "led" by a man who would be out of his depth as Chairman of a small parish council.
The situation is dire and so are the political leaders.
It's hard to see a route out of this.
If Corbyn and Macdonnell were hit by a rogue elephant high on vodka, and Clive Lewis and Yvette Cooper replaced them, that might do it.
Otherwise, I think we should just accept we're more fucked than Mrs T.
To estimate the letters Graham Brady has, take you age, less four (if you are a man) or five (if you are not a man) double it, and take off your birthday month.
Only a handful needed then!
Eek! 100. For Jack, the number must be nearing infinity ...
If May wins a leadership challenge, then she gets year. If she loses, does the new leader also get a year, or are they in peril from day one?
If she loses we have a full campaign for a new leader with two candidates eventually being put to the membership. This could take all summer
And what of the country as the Conservatives navel-gaze for months on end ?!?
Jack a man of your experience and sagacity should know by now that the country is not the Tories' priority. What they are really interested in is their own internal psychodrama and the country is just collateral damage. As the former foreign secretary didn't say, their attitude over the past few years has been "f*ck the country." And they are continuing in that vein.
I always start from the position of wishing a new administration well and initially allowing them the benefit of the doubt as they wrestle with the complex nature of governing a modern liberal democracy.
We are well past allowing this shower a fair wind. The government is a mess and the Prime Minister has failed the nation. That said we are also treated to a Labour party completely unfit for office "led" by a man who would be out of his depth as Chairman of a small parish council.
The situation is dire and so are the political leaders.
It's hard to see a route out of this.
We are heading chaotic step by step towards a 2nd vote.
If they don't send in the letters to provoke a contest May should send one in herself - the can won't be kicked any further, it's just pathetic to see some generally sensible Tories delude themselves that this issue is not cutting the party to the core, it is existential, and they cannot sort themselves out without confronting it.
If TMay resigns to force a contest, then she cannot stand in it.
To estimate the letters Graham Brady has, take you age, less four (if you are a man) or five (if you are not a man) double it, and take off your birthday month.
73... that's probably the number of votes the ERG has, so well done @TheWhiteRabbit
If they don't send in the letters to provoke a contest May should send one in herself - the can won't be kicked any further, it's just pathetic to see some generally sensible Tories delude themselves that this issue is not cutting the party to the core, it is existential, and they cannot sort themselves out without confronting it.
If she was very confident she could win it could she get allies to put letters in?
I get all this infighting has to stop and she needs to take a gamble here i.e. back me or sack me. Not sure I would be brave enough to do it though.
If they don't send in the letters to provoke a contest May should send one in herself - the can won't be kicked any further, it's just pathetic to see some generally sensible Tories delude themselves that this issue is not cutting the party to the core, it is existential, and they cannot sort themselves out without confronting it.
If TMay resigns to force a contest, then she cannot stand in it.
To estimate the letters Graham Brady has, take you age, less four (if you are a man) or five (if you are not a man) double it, and take off your birthday month.
73... that's probably the number of votes the ERG has, so well done @TheWhiteRabbit
If they don't send in the letters to provoke a contest May should send one in herself - the can won't be kicked any further, it's just pathetic to see some generally sensible Tories delude themselves that this issue is not cutting the party to the core, it is existential, and they cannot sort themselves out without confronting it.
If TMay resigns to force a contest, then she cannot stand in it.
Both would require new leadership that doesn't currently exist.
Therein lies the problem. They'll be marmalised if there is a vote while they are tearing themselves to pieces, but they cannot make progress without tearing themselves to pieces first, and the act of doing that drastically increases the chances that a GE or referendum will be needed to endorse a massive change in direction.
If May wins a leadership challenge, then she gets year. If she loses, does the new leader also get a year, or are they in peril from day one?
If she loses we have a full campaign for a new leader with two candidates eventually being put to the membership. This could take all summer
And what of the country as the Conservatives navel-gaze for months on end ?!?
Jack a man of your experience and sagacity should know by now that the country is not the Tories' priority. What they are really interested in is their own internal psychodrama and the country is just collateral damage. As the former foreign secretary didn't say, their attitude over the past few years has been "f*ck the country." And they are continuing in that vein.
I always start from the position of wishing a new administration well and initially allowing them the benefit of the doubt as they wrestle with the complex nature of governing a modern liberal democracy.
We are well past allowing this shower a fair wind. The government is a mess and the Prime Minister has failed the nation. That said we are also treated to a Labour party completely unfit for office "led" by a man who would be out of his depth as Chairman of a small parish council.
The situation is dire and so are the political leaders.
It's hard to see a route out of this.
There is always a route out but the road will be laden with huge difficulties and marshaling our direction of travel is a punch drunk government awaiting a pull over from the EU.
The nation had the right to leave the EU but not the ability to enforce its view of the relationship with the EU. BREXITeers were jubilant of their referendum success without the faintest idea in the short or medium term where we would end up. And thus we are where we are - a complete clusterf*ck.
If May wins a leadership challenge, then she gets year. If she loses, does the new leader also get a year, or are they in peril from day one?
If she loses we have a full campaign for a new leader with two candidates eventually being put to the membership. This could take all summer
And what of the country as the Conservatives navel-gaze for months on end ?!?
Jack a man of your experience and sagacity should know by now that the country is not the Tories' priority. What they are really interested in is their own internal psychodrama and the country is just collateral damage. As the former foreign secretary didn't say, their attitude over the past few years has been "f*ck the country." And they are continuing in that vein.
I always start from the position of wishing a new administration well and initially allowing them the benefit of the doubt as they wrestle with the complex nature of governing a modern liberal democracy.
We are well past allowing this shower a fair wind. The government is a mess and the Prime Minister has failed the nation. That said we are also treated to a Labour party completely unfit for office "led" by a man who would be out of his depth as Chairman of a small parish council.
The situation is dire and so are the political leaders.
It's hard to see a route out of this.
There is always a route out but the road will be laden with huge difficulties and marshaling our direction of travel is a punch drunk government awaiting a pull over from the EU.
The nation had the right to leave the EU but not the ability to enforce its view of the relationship with the EU. BREXITeers were jubilant of their referendum success without the faintest idea in the short or medium term where we would end up. And thus we are where we are - a complete clusterf*ck.
JackW, I disagree.
So far we have an incomplete clusterfuck.
The complete one will come when we exit next March.
Conservative party infighting leading to a Corbyn government and the legacy that government would create would not go down well with a lot of people. It would leave scars for decades in Conservative politics.
Conservative party infighting leading to a Corbyn government and the legacy that government would create would not go down well with a lot of people. It would leave scars for decades in the Conservative movement.
A BETRAYAL Brexit and the legacy that would create would not go down well with a lot of people. It would leave scars for decades in the Conservative movement.
A Fuck Business Brexit and the legacy that would create would not go down well with a lot of people. It would leave scars for decades in the Conservative movement.
To estimate the letters Graham Brady has, take you age, less four (if you are a man) or five (if you are not a man) double it, and take off your birthday month.
73... that's probably the number of votes the ERG has, so well done @TheWhiteRabbit
You're younger than I thought.
Hah! When I met @SeanT his immediate reaction was that I was 20 years younger than he expected...!
Comments
Redwood touring the studios
We are well past allowing this shower a fair wind. The government is a mess and the Prime Minister has failed the nation. That said we are also treated to a Labour party completely unfit for office "led" by a man who would be out of his depth as Chairman of a small parish council.
The situation is dire and so are the political leaders.
One option would be to turn up and cause trouble, but perhaps he needs to spend more time with his ego.
Not to have a contest at this point would a farce on top of a farce. What is May supposed to negotiate if her 50-60 at least of her party including Cabinet big beasts are making clear they won't support her deal? They have to actually have the fight. Had he won the referendum it was a fair assumption
They just make stuff up.
Apologies if anyone has made that pun already.
It's hard to make jokes about fellatio, but they usually come right at the finish.
One gives of oneself in a modest capacity as has been the case since Mike Smithson thrust his prodigious organ into the body politic these many years.
If TMay resigns to force a contest, then she cannot stand in it.
Does financial fair play not apply to PSG?
Otherwise, I think we should just accept we're more fucked than Mrs T.
I think however it will have to be a Brexiteer which lets out Hunt. Worryingly that does however seem to leave Andrea Leadsom.
I get all this infighting has to stop and she needs to take a gamble here i.e. back me or sack me. Not sure I would be brave enough to do it though.
boom...tish
Jeez, this is so out of control.
IN THE NATIONAL INTEREST
https://twitter.com/Simon4NDorset/status/1016222087550308352
General Election probably.
Referendum maybe.
Both would require new leadership that doesn't currently exist.
STRONG AND STABLE
leadershipppffffffffkx
Good exchange between Javid & Abbott.....
We tried to warn you about May and Brexit and Boris and Mogg and Davis and the whole sorry wall of fuck.
STRONG AND STABLE
The nation had the right to leave the EU but not the ability to enforce its view of the relationship with the EU. BREXITeers were jubilant of their referendum success without the faintest idea in the short or medium term where we would end up. And thus we are where we are - a complete clusterf*ck.
So far we have an incomplete clusterfuck.
The complete one will come when we exit next March.
A Fuck Business Brexit and the legacy that would create would not go down well with a lot of people. It would leave scars for decades in the Conservative movement.
Pick your poison...
(I'm not sure if that is a compliment or not...)
Who would have thought there'd be a day when you and I would be relieved at the prospect of Liam Fox becoming Foreign Secretary.
so far