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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Bloomberg to spend $80m helping the Democrats in key r

SystemSystem Posts: 12,255
edited June 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Bloomberg to spend $80m helping the Democrats in key races at the November midterms

For nearly a year the betting markets have made a Democratic party House win in November’s midterm the favourite. These, of course, are the key elections that come up half way through a presidential term when the whole of the House is up for election as well as about a third of the Senate. The Democrats margin has narrowed very sharply on Betfair but the blues are still just ahead. From the betting perspective this is viewed as being very tight.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,258
    No.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Just for Topping....what do we think the Aussies will get here in the ODI? ;-)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,487
    Bloomberg gonna run for POTUS?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    rottenborough said:

    Bloomberg gonna run for POTUS?

    Running on a platform of banning the big gulp nationwide?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    “He stood up, he put his hand in his pocket and he took two Starburst candies out, threw them on the table and said: ‘here, Angela, don’t say I never give you anything.’”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-angela-merkel-starburst-g7-summit-relationship-us-germany-tariffs-eu-a8409201.html?amp
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,922
    I think stuff like this is perhaps of more relevance (though Schmidt has been on the brink for some time):

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/today-i-renounce-my-membership-longtime-gop-strategist-steve-schmidt-announces-hes-leaving-his-party/2018/06/20/5918d7ee-747d-11e8-b4b7-308400242c2e_story.html
    “29 years and nine months ago I registered to vote and became a member of The Republican Party which was founded in 1854 to oppose slavery and stand for the dignity of human life,” Schmidt wrote. “Today I renounce my membership in the Republican Party. It is fully the party of Trump.”

    Tipping swing voters will likely win the House for the Democrats; if they can peel off a few Republicans, it's just about conceivable that the Senate could be in play.

    Trump can weather a Democrat House; a Democrat Senate would present him with considerably greater problems (for an example, no more free appointments to the federal judiciary).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,855
    AndyJS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    Avatar? Wasn't that the documentary about Shell in Nigeria?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    In the 2017 election there were more switchers between the Conservatives and Labour than at any other election, including 1997 and 1970.
    https://twitter.com/chris__curtis/status/1009802836291485696
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    williamglenn said:

    In the 2017 election there were more switchers between the Conservatives and Labour than at any other election, including 1997 and 1970.
    https://twitter.com/chris__curtis/status/1009802836291485696

    I wonder what percentage of SNP leave voter went Tory in 2017.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,133
    williamglenn said:

    In the 2017 election there were more switchers between the Conservatives and Labour than at any other election, including 1997 and 1970.
    https://twitter.com/chris__curtis/status/1009802836291485696

    Red Tories? Who knew the Blairites were so numerous.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,229
    Alistair said:

    williamglenn said:

    In the 2017 election there were more switchers between the Conservatives and Labour than at any other election, including 1997 and 1970.
    https://twitter.com/chris__curtis/status/1009802836291485696

    I wonder what percentage of SNP leave voter went Tory in 2017.
    The Con Remainers who switched were sold a pup.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,208
    Alistair said:

    williamglenn said:

    In the 2017 election there were more switchers between the Conservatives and Labour than at any other election, including 1997 and 1970.
    https://twitter.com/chris__curtis/status/1009802836291485696

    I wonder what percentage of SNP leave voter went Tory in 2017.
    Interesting question. The independence mindset never seemed particularly compatible with membership of the EU to me, even although the SNP wanted to appear a more mainstream social democrat party. I think it may well have been a significant issue in the north east in particular.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    tlg86 said:

    No.

    Brilliant. Anyone who rolls over the absolutely dismal 'First' shite gets a treble gold star.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,922
    Anazina said:

    tlg86 said:

    No.

    Brilliant. Anyone who rolls over the absolutely dismal 'First' shite gets a treble gold star.
    Killjoy.
    :smile:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,258
    Anazina said:

    tlg86 said:

    No.

    Brilliant. Anyone who rolls over the absolutely dismal 'First' shite gets a treble gold star.
    I nearly went for QTWTAIN.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    edited June 2018
    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    williamglenn said:

    In the 2017 election there were more switchers between the Conservatives and Labour than at any other election, including 1997 and 1970.
    https://twitter.com/chris__curtis/status/1009802836291485696

    I wonder what percentage of SNP leave voter went Tory in 2017.
    The Con Remainers who switched were sold a pup.
    You mean an 'absolute' pup? ;)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Also, the big takeaway for me is for people who voted in 05, 10, 15 and 17 only 40% stuck with 1 party.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Why would the Democrats want to "turn the tide" ?

    If the tide turns it'll be the GOP winning the house.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited June 2018
    O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it! :smile:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,314
    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    williamglenn said:

    In the 2017 election there were more switchers between the Conservatives and Labour than at any other election, including 1997 and 1970.
    https://twitter.com/chris__curtis/status/1009802836291485696

    I wonder what percentage of SNP leave voter went Tory in 2017.
    The Con Remainers who switched were sold a pup.
    They deserve nothing less. Now their great leader has abandoned them as well. They are probably hoping for Vince Cable to come to their rescue now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Anazina said:

    tlg86 said:

    No.

    Brilliant. Anyone who rolls over the absolutely dismal 'First' shite gets a treble gold star.
    Somebody got out of bed the wrong side this morning...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,208
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anazina said:

    tlg86 said:

    No.

    Brilliant. Anyone who rolls over the absolutely dismal 'First' shite gets a treble gold star.
    Somebody got out of bed the wrong side this morning...
    Just don't mention the strawberries....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2018
    "@britainelects
    2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-)
    LAB: 40% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (+1)
    UKIP: 3% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    via @YouGov, 18 - 19 Jun"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    DavidL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anazina said:

    tlg86 said:

    No.

    Brilliant. Anyone who rolls over the absolutely dismal 'First' shite gets a treble gold star.
    Somebody got out of bed the wrong side this morning...
    Just don't mention the strawberries....
    Had some lovely ones from Waitrose yesterday....I believe they were from a bloke called harry in Herefordshire.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anazina said:

    tlg86 said:

    No.

    Brilliant. Anyone who rolls over the absolutely dismal 'First' shite gets a treble gold star.
    Somebody got out of bed the wrong side this morning...
    There are no right sides on my bed.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    AndyJS said:

    "@britainelects
    2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-)
    LAB: 40% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (+1)
    UKIP: 3% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    via @YouGov, 18 - 19 Jun"

    Progressives 51%, Retrogressives 45%
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,068
    Mr. Surby, 'progressive' is a daft term. It's just a grown-up attempt to ape the infantile 'goodies' and 'baddies' language.

    Good afternoon, my fellow progressive anthropophiliac pro-mankind optimists overflowing with goodly niceness.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Surby, 'progressive' is a daft term. It's just a grown-up attempt to ape the infantile 'goodies' and 'baddies' language.

    Good afternoon, my fellow progressive anthropophiliac pro-mankind optimists overflowing with goodly niceness.

    Good enough for me.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    surby said:

    AndyJS said:

    "@britainelects
    2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-)
    LAB: 40% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (+1)
    UKIP: 3% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    via @YouGov, 18 - 19 Jun"

    Progressives 51%, Retrogressives 45%
    Progressives = the last Coalition Parties.

    Retrogressives = Labour (send us back to the 70s), UKIP (50s) and Greens (16th century).
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,980
    On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

    https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

    It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

    So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

    'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    England better have bought their batting boots again today, as they are going to need buckets loads to win.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,068
    Mr. Surby, the wrapping up of morality in politics is delinquent tomfoolery.

    If one assumes that difference of political preference is not a matter of judgement or personal taste but a question of morality then it logically follows on from that that one's own side is good. However, that necessarily means that deviation from that 'good' perspective is indicative of wickedness.

    But that flies in the face of the essential principle of democratic freedom, namely that it's entirely legitimate for intelligent people to hear the same arguments, see the same evidence, and yet reach differing conclusions as to the best way forward.

    And such people then cling to their self-ordained righteousness even when they celebrate the death of an OAP. It's zealous idiocy.

    People can differ without being evil or stupid.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Surby, 'progressive' is a daft term. It's just a grown-up attempt to ape the infantile 'goodies' and 'baddies' language.

    Good afternoon, my fellow progressive anthropophiliac pro-mankind optimists overflowing with goodly niceness.

    Given Mr Corbyn's party wants to ban automatic checkout machines then perhaps progressive isn't accurate at all.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Philip_Thompson said:

    surby said:

    AndyJS said:

    "@britainelects
    2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-)
    LAB: 40% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (+1)
    UKIP: 3% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-)

    via @YouGov, 18 - 19 Jun"

    Progressives 51%, Retrogressives 45%
    Progressives = the last Coalition Parties.

    Retrogressives = Labour (send us back to the 70s), UKIP (50s) and Greens (16th century).
    Been brushing up on your Newspeak blackwhite?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,367
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21

    So how much of our territory are we planning on handing over to Russia?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Benpointer said:

    O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it! :smile:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

    That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,208
    edited June 2018
    david_herdson said:

    On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

    https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

    It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

    So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

    'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.

    It's a good point. I am so glad that we don't live in a system where $80m may not make that much of a difference or, for that matter, where it is possible for 1 person's money to have so much influence on the outcome.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21

    "The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

    Sounds alright.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,208
    That's sure enough Overton for the time being? Bring back Rashid.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    England better have bought their batting boots again today, as they are going to need buckets loads to win.

    Only 350 or thereabouts.

    EDIT, I just changed that from 330 after the last over! :wink:
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,367
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Surby, the wrapping up of morality in politics is delinquent tomfoolery.

    If one assumes that difference of political preference is not a matter of judgement or personal taste but a question of morality then it logically follows on from that that one's own side is good. However, that necessarily means that deviation from that 'good' perspective is indicative of wickedness.

    But that flies in the face of the essential principle of democratic freedom, namely that it's entirely legitimate for intelligent people to hear the same arguments, see the same evidence, and yet reach differing conclusions as to the best way forward.

    And such people then cling to their self-ordained righteousness even when they celebrate the death of an OAP. It's zealous idiocy.

    People can differ without being evil or stupid.

    Selfish, greedy people vote for a party that promotes selfishness and greed.

    That is their democratic right. Doesn't mean the rest of us can't look at them critically.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DavidL said:

    That's sure enough Overton for the time being? Bring back Rashid.

    From cricinfo "Before Tuesday I would have said that Australia were going along at a reasonable clip. Now I really don't know." Game's changed, eh, David...


    Fame at last..
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    England better have bought their batting boots again today, as they are going to need buckets loads to win.

    Australia are awesome in dead rubbers!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,068
    Mr. Flashman (deceased), must admit to a certain Luddite sympathy with that particular policy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    DavidL said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

    https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

    It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

    So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

    'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.

    It's a good point. I am so glad that we don't live in a system where $80m may not make that much of a difference or, for that matter, where it is possible for 1 person's money to have so much influence on the outcome.
    Er... Arron Banks?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,108
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Just for Topping....what do we think the Aussies will get here in the ODI? ;-)

    Two sets to love?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    SandyRentool said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Surby, the wrapping up of morality in politics is delinquent tomfoolery.

    If one assumes that difference of political preference is not a matter of judgement or personal taste but a question of morality then it logically follows on from that that one's own side is good. However, that necessarily means that deviation from that 'good' perspective is indicative of wickedness.

    But that flies in the face of the essential principle of democratic freedom, namely that it's entirely legitimate for intelligent people to hear the same arguments, see the same evidence, and yet reach differing conclusions as to the best way forward.

    And such people then cling to their self-ordained righteousness even when they celebrate the death of an OAP. It's zealous idiocy.

    People can differ without being evil or stupid.

    Selfish, greedy people vote for a party that promotes selfishness and greed.

    That is their democratic right. Doesn't mean the rest of us can't look at them critically.
    Spot on!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,208
    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

    https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

    It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

    So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

    'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.

    It's a good point. I am so glad that we don't live in a system where $80m may not make that much of a difference or, for that matter, where it is possible for 1 person's money to have so much influence on the outcome.
    Er... Arron Banks?
    I thought about him but the only election he really influenced was what will prove to be the last UK election to the European Parliament. Other than that UKIP were killed by FPTP and he got very little for his money.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21

    "The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

    Sounds alright.

    Let's hope Putin doesn't take it as a licence to annex Kent.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,208
    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    That's sure enough Overton for the time being? Bring back Rashid.

    From cricinfo "Before Tuesday I would have said that Australia were going along at a reasonable clip. Now I really don't know." Game's changed, eh, David...


    Fame at last..
    What, more fame than my 20,310 posts on here? Nah.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Benpointer said:

    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21

    "The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

    Sounds alright.

    Let's hope Putin doesn't take it as a licence to annex Kent.
    After Brexit, Kent will be full of queuing lorries and refugee camps* so that may be no bad thing.


    * (c) Remain.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/1009814614958370816
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21

    "The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

    Sounds alright.

    “Association agreements can vary in scope, though the ones with the closest levels of economic cooperation, such as Ukraine’s, are overseen by the European Court of Justice.”
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Javid is going to kick out all the Romanaian street gangs:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44553225
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,980
    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

    https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

    It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

    So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

    'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.

    It's a good point. I am so glad that we don't live in a system where $80m may not make that much of a difference or, for that matter, where it is possible for 1 person's money to have so much influence on the outcome.
    Er... Arron Banks?
    I thought about him but the only election he really influenced was what will prove to be the last UK election to the European Parliament. Other than that UKIP were killed by FPTP and he got very little for his money.
    Apart from Brexit.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited June 2018
    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

    https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

    It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

    So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

    'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.

    It's a good point. I am so glad that we don't live in a system where $80m may not make that much of a difference or, for that matter, where it is possible for 1 person's money to have so much influence on the outcome.
    Er... Arron Banks?
    I thought about him but the only election he really influenced was what will prove to be the last UK election to the European Parliament. Other than that UKIP were killed by FPTP and he got very little for his money.
    True but of course recent elections don't count for anything compared to the EU-Ref (as we have seen this week). Banks' wealth (and that of others) undoubtedly did influence the referendum.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    Anazina said:

    Benpointer said:

    O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it! :smile:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

    That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.
    Yes i called this on the weekend. Theoretically England may not have to face a 'tough' match until a potential semi final with Spain. If Germany don't get 3 points from the Sweden match, England are going to be much better off coming 2nd in the group.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21

    "The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

    Sounds alright.

    ECJ oversight is the kicker. Any agreement will need oversight from both sides, not a referee coming from one side.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,208
    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

    https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

    It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

    So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

    'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.

    It's a good point. I am so glad that we don't live in a system where $80m may not make that much of a difference or, for that matter, where it is possible for 1 person's money to have so much influence on the outcome.
    Er... Arron Banks?
    I thought about him but the only election he really influenced was what will prove to be the last UK election to the European Parliament. Other than that UKIP were killed by FPTP and he got very little for his money.
    True but of course recent elections don't count for anything compared to the EU-Ref (as we have seen this week). Banks' wealth (and that of others) undoubtedly did influence the referendum.
    That's a fair point.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    williamglenn said:

    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21

    "The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

    Sounds alright.

    “Association agreements can vary in scope, though the ones with the closest levels of economic cooperation, such as Ukraine’s, are overseen by the European Court of Justice.”
    Yes that bit will have to go - but in general this sounds far easier than starting from scratch.

    A loose deal with frictionless trade and security cooperation would seem a reasonable compromise.

  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Benpointer said:

    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21

    "The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

    Sounds alright.

    Let's hope Putin doesn't take it as a licence to annex Kent.
    Can we give him Northern Ireland instead?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited June 2018
    Thank you Mr. Bloomberg. I agree with your desire to rebalance the US system of checks & balances.
    But, with gratitude and respect, your $80 million pales compared to Boris's Brexit Bus with £350 million on its side.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Elliot said:

    Javid is going to kick out all the Romanaian street gangs:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44553225

    How? Do you think many of them have been caught and convicted?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,068
    edited June 2018
    Mr. Rentool, indeed, ideas shouldn't be sacred and shouldn't be immune to criticism, examination, or ridicule. What I'm arguing against is demonising people who hold different political views. Condemning people as malevolent for not subscribing to the One True Way is entirely different to disagreeing with their policy on income tax, for example, and laying out the reasons why.

    Edited extra bit: 'reasons' initially had an errant apostrophe, which I have since removed before disembowelling myself.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,980
    Anazina said:

    Benpointer said:

    O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it! :smile:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

    That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.
    Unless the Germans lose another ...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited June 2018
    Elliot said:

    Benpointer said:

    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21

    "The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

    Sounds alright.

    Let's hope Putin doesn't take it as a licence to annex Kent.
    Can we give him Northern Ireland instead?
    I don't think the EU will allow that. :wink:
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    williamglenn said:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

    The Irish have left it a bit late to start panicking - they should have been changing into brown trousers the day after the referendum....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited June 2018
    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21

    "The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

    Sounds alright.

    “Association agreements can vary in scope, though the ones with the closest levels of economic cooperation, such as Ukraine’s, are overseen by the European Court of Justice.”
    Yes that bit will have to go - but in general this sounds far easier than starting from scratch.

    A loose deal with frictionless trade and security cooperation would seem a reasonable compromise like cherry-picking.

    Corrected
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    williamglenn said:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

    Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Chris Deerin is rapidly turning into Nicola Sturgeon's favourite columnist which is a phrase I never thought I would write.

    Ever.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,068
    F1: not a tip, but perusing the market on Ladbrokes and there are a series of race match (team mates) bets. Number 8 has one option: Roman Grosjean at 2.1. I'm sure it'll be amended, but it'd be a splendid thing if you could just lay down the money and make 110% profit in a few days :D
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,537
    david_herdson said:

    Anazina said:

    Benpointer said:

    O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it! :smile:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

    That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.
    Unless the Germans lose another ...
    They play Sweden on Saturday.

    Fox jr has pointed out to me that in the few World Cups the holder has gone out in the group stage of the subsequent one.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

    Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
    The Irish will be sacrificed on the EU altar as the clock runs out.

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    This might be even more effective for the US elections. Damn, it moved me.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/president-trump-looms-over-sobbing-immigrant-child-in-times-latest-cover-2018-06-21
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    232 is apathetic effort with 9 overs left for 3 wickets down.
    We're going to win again.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,133
    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

    Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
    Then over the cliff it is...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    TGOHF said:

    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

    Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
    The Irish will be sacrificed on the EU altar as the clock runs out.

    Because let's never forget TNUMTWNT
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,723
    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

    Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
    What is clear is the Irish are screwed. They should not have let the EU use them as a pawn in the bigger game.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    david_herdson said:

    Anazina said:

    Benpointer said:

    O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it! :smile:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

    That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.
    Unless the Germans lose another ...
    Ha! Fair point.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    It's all going Pete Tong for Australia now - I should have stuck to my original prediction of 330.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

    Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
    What is clear is the Irish are screwed. They should not have let the EU use them as a pawn in the bigger game.
    That’s illogical. If the EU don’t mean it, they gain nothing by taking this position.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,812
    https://twitter.com/jgforsyth/status/1009813983845548034?s=21
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,723
    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    david_herdson said:

    On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

    https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

    It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

    So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

    'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.

    It's a good point. I am so glad that we don't live in a system where $80m may not make that much of a difference or, for that matter, where it is possible for 1 person's money to have so much influence on the outcome.
    Er... Arron Banks?
    Peanuts compared to what the Government spent supporting one side. If you are trying to claim money made the difference you are looking at the wrong side in the argument.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited June 2018
    RobD said:

    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

    Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
    Then over the cliff it is...
    The Irish go over the cliff as well. And guess who gets to build the dreaded border ...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    williamglenn said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

    Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
    What is clear is the Irish are screwed. They should not have let the EU use them as a pawn in the bigger game.
    That’s illogical. If the EU don’t mean it, they gain nothing by taking this position.
    What use them to squeeze a few concessions out of the Uk then ultimately tell the Irish to suck it up and accept a deal in the end.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,537
    TGOHF said:

    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

    Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
    The Irish will be sacrificed on the EU altar as the clock runs out.

    I wouldn't count on it, any more than German car makers saving our bacon.

    I reckon the EU27 take solidarity very seriously. That is what Unions do.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,251
    Foxy said:

    david_herdson said:

    Anazina said:

    Benpointer said:

    O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it! :smile:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

    That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.
    Unless the Germans lose another ...
    They play Sweden on Saturday.

    Fox jr has pointed out to me that in the few World Cups the holder has gone out in the group stage of the subsequent one.
    That's interesting. I guess to win a world cup you need a group of players at their peak. 4 years later, if you have the same team they are now past their peak.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,723
    williamglenn said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

    Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
    What is clear is the Irish are screwed. They should not have let the EU use them as a pawn in the bigger game.
    That’s illogical. If the EU don’t mean it, they gain nothing by taking this position.
    Wrong. Against a weak opponent they would gain by frightening them into accepting what they want.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Foxy said:

    TGOHF said:

    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

    Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
    The Irish will be sacrificed on the EU altar as the clock runs out.

    I wouldn't count on it, any more than German car makers saving our bacon.

    I reckon the EU27 take solidarity very seriously. That is what Unions do.
    Heh - yes ask the Greeks and the Italians about that.

  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

    Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
    May has only committed to non divergence for NI and no physical infrastructure.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Three simple questions for EU Citixens to stay in the UK:
    1. Can you prove your ID?
    2. Do you have any criminal convictions?
    3. Do you live in the UK?
    and, er...
    4. Do you have an Android phone?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44553225
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,367
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Rentool, indeed, ideas shouldn't be sacred and shouldn't be immune to criticism, examination, or ridicule. What I'm arguing against is demonising people who hold different political views. Condemning people as malevolent for not subscribing to the One True Way is entirely different to disagreeing with their policy on income tax, for example, and laying out the reasons why.

    Edited extra bit: 'reasons' initially had an errant apostrophe, which I have since removed before disembowelling myself.

    Criticism and demonisation are points on a continuum. I don't see a clear distinction.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

    Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

    Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
    What is clear is the Irish are screwed. They should not have let the EU use them as a pawn in the bigger game.
    Not sure it is quite as clear as that - the UK folded on this point back in December, the infamous paragraphs 49 and 50. Yes they've been arguing what they agreed since, but precedent suggests that May will deal here at the last minute.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,537
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Foxy said:

    david_herdson said:

    Anazina said:

    Benpointer said:

    O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it! :smile:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

    That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.
    Unless the Germans lose another ...
    They play Sweden on Saturday.

    Fox jr has pointed out to me that in the few World Cups the holder has gone out in the group stage of the subsequent one.
    That's interesting. I guess to win a world cup you need a group of players at their peak. 4 years later, if you have the same team they are now past their peak.
    Plus, as automatic qualifiers, they dont have qualifying rounds to build a team on.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Foxy said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Foxy said:

    david_herdson said:

    Anazina said:

    Benpointer said:

    O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it! :smile:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

    That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.
    Unless the Germans lose another ...
    They play Sweden on Saturday.

    Fox jr has pointed out to me that in the few World Cups the holder has gone out in the group stage of the subsequent one.
    That's interesting. I guess to win a world cup you need a group of players at their peak. 4 years later, if you have the same team they are now past their peak.
    Plus, as automatic qualifiers, they dont have qualifying rounds to build a team on.
    The winners don't qualify automatically these days.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2018
    Benpointer said:

    Three simple questions for EU Citixens to stay in the UK:
    1. Can you prove your ID?
    2. Do you have any criminal convictions?
    3. Do you live in the UK?
    and, er...
    4. Do you have an Android phone?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44553225

    Another exanple of the apple icrap...where nothing bloody works properly anymore.

    The whole selling point of apple was lovely design and an OS that just worked. Now every day there is a new story how it doesn’t.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,922
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Surby, the wrapping up of morality in politics is delinquent tomfoolery.

    If one assumes that difference of political preference is not a matter of judgement or personal taste but a question of morality then it logically follows on from that that one's own side is good. However, that necessarily means that deviation from that 'good' perspective is indicative of wickedness.

    But that flies in the face of the essential principle of democratic freedom, namely that it's entirely legitimate for intelligent people to hear the same arguments, see the same evidence, and yet reach differing conclusions as to the best way forward.

    And such people then cling to their self-ordained righteousness even when they celebrate the death of an OAP. It's zealous idiocy.

    People can differ without being evil or stupid.

    And then you have President Trump...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,068
    Mr. Rentool, because you've misunderstood the distinction.

    Criticising ideas is fine. Detesting people because of prejudice is not.
This discussion has been closed.